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000
FXUS63 KARX 250428
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight thru Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances and any severe
potential with them.

Data analysis at 18Z had low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle with
troughing to a weak low in west-central MN. A front extended east
of this low to another east of lk Superior. Area radars and vis
imagery showed main cumulus field and remaining SHRA/TSRA moving
into far eastern IA, eastern WI and U.P of MI as moisture plume
and weak shortwave energy moves east across the region. Shortwave
ridging aloft building over the central/west parts of the region,
with sunny to partly sunny skies and temps mostly in the 70s.

No glaring issues noted with 24.12Z model initializations. GFS sfc
dew point initialized much better today. Models in good agreement
for some hgt rises/shortwave ridging to build across the region
late this afternoon/tonight. This ahead of a stronger piece of
shortwave energy to lift across the central plains tonight, then
across the fcst area Wed. Improving agreement for hgt falls over
the area Wed night as stronger northern plains energy moves into
northwest MN by 12Z Thu. Trend favors stronger of the earlier
models with the ridging tonight then shortwave to pass Wed. With a
tighter model consensus on the details tonight/Wed, short term
fcst confidence is generally good this cycle.

For the short term: Generally quiet (non SHRA/TSRA) weather expected
thru this evening with the weak shortwave ridging building across
the area and the area remaining under the right exit region of a 60-
80kt 300-250MB jet max. Lower level moisture transport hits a
minimum over the area around 00Z this evening. Moisture progs also
showing a decrease of PW over the area thru this evening as the
shortwave ridging builds across. Only potential trigger for any
SHRA/TSRA looks to be a weak sfc front sagging south into the area
this evening. Some MUCape progged to remain over the south half of
the fcst area this evening, however any shear there expected to be
quite weak. Will leave a small -SHRA/TSRA chance across the
southeast end of the fcst area this evening.

All this changes rather quickly after midnight with approach of the
next shortwave. Moisture starts to return/increase rather quickly
after midnight then spreads northeast across the fcst area Wed
morning. This with area under the more favorable right entrance
region of an 80-100kt 300-250MB jet max, PV advection with the
shortwave, PW values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range by late Wed
morning and the increased moisture transport/theta-e convergence.
MUcape of 500-1000 J/KG in the inflow airmass late tonight,
building to 1K to 2K by late Wed morning. Increasing confidence
for a band of SHRA/TSRA to move across the fcst area Wed. Of
course some meso-scale timing difference of this band among the
models. An increase of 0-6KM shear spreads across the area as well
Wed. Enough so that SWODY2 looks good at this time. If faster
models are more correct with the SHRA/TSRA band Wed, SWODY2 for
the area would be a bit overdone with many TSRA all competing for
the same limited energy Wed morning. If slower models are more
correct, the slight risk of severe may intrude more into the fcst
area for the late morning/afternoon hours. One last possibility is
portions of the fcst area getting split by the convection, with a
northern portion following the stronger shortwave/synoptic forcing
and a southern portion feeding on the moisture transport closer to
the greater cape pool just south of the fcst area. Will stay with
50-70% precip chances on Wed for now. SHRA/TSRA chances diminish
Wed night with passage of the shortwave and the moisture plume/
stronger moisture transport being pushed east of the area. If
faster models are more correct, much of Wed night may end up dry.
For now used a model consensus of SHRA/TSRA chances Wed night
given the meso-scale timing differences. Blend of guidance
lows/highs for tonight thru Wed night looks well trended.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday thru Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For Thursday thru Friday night: Main fcst concerns this period are
the continued SHRA/TSRA chances.

24.12Z models in good agreement for rising hgts/shortwave ridging
aloft over the region Thu as the northwest MN shortwave tracks to
north of lk Superior and the next stronger energy from the rockies
troughing ejects into the southern plains. Improving agreement for
troughing to deepen in the central/southern plains Thu night/Fri,
with this trough to then begin lifting toward the Upper Midwest Fri
night. Trend of the model consensus is slower/stronger with the
plains troughing Thu night thru Fri night. Fcst confidence for Thu
thru Fri night is average to good.

Thu would see a relative lull in the SHRA/TSRA chances with weaker
forcing, some drying of the column and the rising hgts/weak
shortwave ridging over the region. However, the airmass progged to
remain unstable with potential for a weak sfc boundary to linger
in/near the area. NAM/GFS progging Thu afternoon dew points into the
70-75F range over much of IA into southern WI, and produce MUcapes
in the 4K-6K J/KG range. This seems unrealistic at this point with
little in the way of greenness in the corn/soybean fields across
IA and nearby states. ECMWF appears much more realistic with its
sfc dew points and cape over the region Thu. Did continue a small
mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA chance Thu. System moving into the
plains spreads increasing moisture/lift across the fcst area
already Thu night then continues this into Fri night. Consensus
SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60% range Thu night thru Fri night
okay for now. As this time period approaches and the meso-scale
details sort them selves out, the entire Thu night thru Fri night
period is not likely to end up wet. Too early to determine much
for details on a severe risk with any of the Thu thru Fri night
TSRA. However a round of stronger to potentially severe storms in
there somewhere cannot be ruled out at this point. Blend of the
guidance highs/lows for Thu thru Fri night looks good for now.

For Saturday thru Tuesday, (days 4 to 7): Main fcst concerns this
period are the SHRA/TSRA chances thru the period in the continued
southwest flow aloft.

Medium range model runs of 24.00Z/24.12Z in reasonably good
agreement for a stronger shortwave trough to be lifting thru the
central plains into Upper Midwest Sat, then across the region Sat
night/Sun. Some timing differences by the day 4-5 time frame (and
for days 6/7), but this not unexpected. Some consensus for shortwave
ridging over the region behind this trough for Sun night/Mon. By
Tue, modest consensus for yet another shortwave trough in the
southwest flow to be lifting northeast toward/into the region as
strong troughing remains over the western CONUS. Given reasonable
model similarity in the longwave pattern, but the shortwave timing
differences, fcst confidence for days 4-7 is average this cycle.

Under southwest flow aloft, the unsettled pattern continues days
4-7. Present consensus timing would spread another surge of Gulf
of Mex moisture northward and a round of deeper layered forcing/
lift across the area Sat/Sat night. The deeper moisture/stronger
forcing would then exit northeast of the area Sun with shortwave
ridging and little forcing for Sun night/Mon. However there are
the timing differences. Consensus SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60%
range Sat, lowering into the 20-30% range by Sun night/Mon okay
for now. Next increase of Gulf of Mex moisture and lift would
arrive ahead of the next shortwave trough thru the flow Mon night/
Tue. Consensus 30-40% SHRA/TSRA chances Mon night/Tue reasonable
for now. With a warmer and more moist airmass over the area,
model/ensemble consensus highs/lows remaining a category or 2
above normal for Sat-Tue also looking well trended at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A brief period of MVFR visibilities in BR is possible late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, shower and
thunderstorms will overspread the region from late Wednesday
morning into early Wednesday afternoon potentially impacting the
TAF sites. Continued VCTS in the TAFs due to uncertainty in
coverage of the thunderstorms. A brief period of MVFR to IFR
conditions is possible in any stronger thunderstorm. After the
storms push north and east of the TAF sites by late Wednesday
afternoon we should see a return to VFR conditions with a sct to
bkn cloud deck with bases around 5 kft. Also, look for southeast
winds to increase on Wednesday at 10 to 13 kts with gusts
approaching 25 kts at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(Wednesday into Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Not too worried about potential Wed/Wed night rain amounts at this
point. With PW values approaching 1.5 inches, some of the SHRA/TSRA
could be efficient rain makers. With most of the fcst area well
short of normal on moisture since April 1st, the landscape could use
a good drink of water. If some locally heavier rains materialize
Wed/Wed night, then a prolonged period of more widespread SHRA/TSRA
Thu night into Sat (again could be efficient rain makers), some of
the landscape could become saturated by Fri/Sat with potential
runoff issues and rises on area streams and rivers.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242345
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight thru Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances and any severe
potential with them.

Data analysis at 18Z had low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle with
troughing to a weak low in west-central MN. A front extended east
of this low to another east of lk Superior. Area radars and vis
imagery showed main cumulus field and remaining SHRA/TSRA moving
into far eastern IA, eastern WI and U.P of MI as moisture plume
and weak shortwave energy moves east across the region. Shortwave
ridging aloft building over the central/west parts of the region,
with sunny to partly sunny skies and temps mostly in the 70s.

No glaring issues noted with 24.12Z model initializations. GFS sfc
dew point initialized much better today. Models in good agreement
for some hgt rises/shortwave ridging to build across the region
late this afternoon/tonight. This ahead of a stronger piece of
shortwave energy to lift across the central plains tonight, then
across the fcst area Wed. Improving agreement for hgt falls over
the area Wed night as stronger northern plains energy moves into
northwest MN by 12Z Thu. Trend favors stronger of the earlier
models with the ridging tonight then shortwave to pass Wed. With a
tighter model consensus on the details tonight/Wed, short term
fcst confidence is generally good this cycle.

For the short term: Generally quiet (non SHRA/TSRA) weather expected
thru this evening with the weak shortwave ridging building across
the area and the area remaining under the right exit region of a 60-
80kt 300-250MB jet max. Lower level moisture transport hits a
minimum over the area around 00Z this evening. Moisture progs also
showing a decrease of PW over the area thru this evening as the
shortwave ridging builds across. Only potential trigger for any
SHRA/TSRA looks to be a weak sfc front sagging south into the area
this evening. Some MUCape progged to remain over the south half of
the fcst area this evening, however any shear there expected to be
quite weak. Will leave a small -SHRA/TSRA chance across the
southeast end of the fcst area this evening.

All this changes rather quickly after midnight with approach of the
next shortwave. Moisture starts to return/increase rather quickly
after midnight then spreads northeast across the fcst area Wed
morning. This with area under the more favorable right entrance
region of an 80-100kt 300-250MB jet max, PV advection with the
shortwave, PW values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range by late Wed
morning and the increased moisture transport/theta-e convergence.
MUcape of 500-1000 J/KG in the inflow airmass late tonight,
building to 1K to 2K by late Wed morning. Increasing confidence
for a band of SHRA/TSRA to move across the fcst area Wed. Of
course some meso-scale timing difference of this band among the
models. An increase of 0-6KM shear spreads across the area as well
Wed. Enough so that SWODY2 looks good at this time. If faster
models are more correct with the SHRA/TSRA band Wed, SWODY2 for
the area would be a bit overdone with many TSRA all competing for
the same limited energy Wed morning. If slower models are more
correct, the slight risk of severe may intrude more into the fcst
area for the late morning/afternoon hours. One last possibility is
portions of the fcst area getting split by the convection, with a
northern portion following the stronger shortwave/synoptic forcing
and a southern portion feeding on the moisture transport closer to
the greater cape pool just south of the fcst area. Will stay with
50-70% precip chances on Wed for now. SHRA/TSRA chances diminish
Wed night with passage of the shortwave and the moisture plume/
stronger moisture transport being pushed east of the area. If
faster models are more correct, much of Wed night may end up dry.
For now used a model consensus of SHRA/TSRA chances Wed night
given the meso-scale timing differences. Blend of guidance
lows/highs for tonight thru Wed night looks well trended.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday thru Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For Thursday thru Friday night: Main fcst concerns this period are
the continued SHRA/TSRA chances.

24.12Z models in good agreement for rising hgts/shortwave ridging
aloft over the region Thu as the northwest MN shortwave tracks to
north of lk Superior and the next stronger energy from the rockies
troughing ejects into the southern plains. Improving agreement for
troughing to deepen in the central/southern plains Thu night/Fri,
with this trough to then begin lifting toward the Upper Midwest Fri
night. Trend of the model consensus is slower/stronger with the
plains troughing Thu night thru Fri night. Fcst confidence for Thu
thru Fri night is average to good.

Thu would see a relative lull in the SHRA/TSRA chances with weaker
forcing, some drying of the column and the rising hgts/weak
shortwave ridging over the region. However, the airmass progged to
remain unstable with potential for a weak sfc boundary to linger
in/near the area. NAM/GFS progging Thu afternoon dew points into the
70-75F range over much of IA into southern WI, and produce MUcapes
in the 4K-6K J/KG range. This seems unrealistic at this point with
little in the way of greenness in the corn/soybean fields across
IA and nearby states. ECMWF appears much more realistic with its
sfc dew points and cape over the region Thu. Did continue a small
mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA chance Thu. System moving into the
plains spreads increasing moisture/lift across the fcst area
already Thu night then continues this into Fri night. Consensus
SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60% range Thu night thru Fri night
okay for now. As this time period approaches and the meso-scale
details sort them selves out, the entire Thu night thru Fri night
period is not likely to end up wet. Too early to determine much
for details on a severe risk with any of the Thu thru Fri night
TSRA. However a round of stronger to potentially severe storms in
there somewhere cannot be ruled out at this point. Blend of the
guidance highs/lows for Thu thru Fri night looks good for now.

For Saturday thru Tuesday, (days 4 to 7): Main fcst concerns this
period are the SHRA/TSRA chances thru the period in the continued
southwest flow aloft.

Medium range model runs of 24.00Z/24.12Z in reasonably good
agreement for a stronger shortwave trough to be lifting thru the
central plains into Upper Midwest Sat, then across the region Sat
night/Sun. Some timing differences by the day 4-5 time frame (and
for days 6/7), but this not unexpected. Some consensus for shortwave
ridging over the region behind this trough for Sun night/Mon. By
Tue, modest consensus for yet another shortwave trough in the
southwest flow to be lifting northeast toward/into the region as
strong troughing remains over the western CONUS. Given reasonable
model similarity in the longwave pattern, but the shortwave timing
differences, fcst confidence for days 4-7 is average this cycle.

Under southwest flow aloft, the unsettled pattern continues days
4-7. Present consensus timing would spread another surge of Gulf
of Mex moisture northward and a round of deeper layered forcing/
lift across the area Sat/Sat night. The deeper moisture/stronger
forcing would then exit northeast of the area Sun with shortwave
ridging and little forcing for Sun night/Mon. However there are
the timing differences. Consensus SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60%
range Sat, lowering into the 20-30% range by Sun night/Mon okay
for now. Next increase of Gulf of Mex moisture and lift would
arrive ahead of the next shortwave trough thru the flow Mon night/
Tue. Consensus 30-40% SHRA/TSRA chances Mon night/Tue reasonable
for now. With a warmer and more moist airmass over the area,
model/ensemble consensus highs/lows remaining a category or 2
above normal for Sat-Tue also looking well trended at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorms are expected at the TAF sites Wednesday, mainly from
the mid morning to the mid afternoon. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions
are possible near the stronger storms. Also, south to southeast
winds will increase to 10 to 14 kts on Wednesday with gusts to
around 25 kts possible. The strongest winds will be at KRST. Other
than around thunderstorms, plan on VFR conditions through the TAF
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(Wednesday into Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Not too worried about potential Wed/Wed night rain amounts at this
point. With PW values approaching 1.5 inches, some of the SHRA/TSRA
could be efficient rain makers. With most of the fcst area well
short of normal on moisture since April 1st, the landscape could use
a good drink of water. If some locally heavier rains materialize
Wed/Wed night, then a prolonged period of more widespread SHRA/TSRA
Thu night into Sat (again could be efficient rain makers), some of
the landscape could become saturated by Fri/Sat with potential
runoff issues and rises on area streams and rivers.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RRS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 242040
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms have moved northeast of
Sheboygan and Port Washington, out over Lake Michigan. Additional
scattered showers were moving northeast through portions of the
forecast area. They were being helped along by a confluent low level
boundary, as well as a passing weak 500 mb vorticity maximum and
some weakly focused 850 mb warm air advection. Mesoscale models have
this area of showers gradually shifting east of the area by the
early evening hours.

Adjusting dew points on area forecast soundings from synoptic models
downward, and upward on some of the mesoscale models, gives 500 to
800 J/kg of tall, skinny mean layer CAPE into early evening. Given
the lack of focused upward vertical motion, mentioned just isolated
thunder into this evening. Deep layer shear is around 20 knots at
best, so not anticipating anything severe.

HRRR and other mesoscale/synoptic models look rather dry for the
rest of tonight and even into early Wednesday morning, with a lack
of forcing for upward vertical motion over the area. Cut back the
pops somewhat tonight, and may need further trimming or removal
later on.

Main issue later tonight into Wednesday morning will be fog
potential over the area. Dew points will gradually hold steady or
slowly rise tonight into Wednesday morning, then rise Wednesday
afternoon. Models have been too high with dew points for awhile in
general, so lowered consensus blend values several degrees.

Still, upper 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest dew points look
reasonable for later tonight into Wednesday morning. Light winds
during this time should allow for patchy fog to develop across most
of the area, best bet in the north and east. Onshore winds Wednesday
afternoon may keep the fog going near the lake. Dense fog is not out
of the question, but will hold off for now until better confidence
in higher dew point values can be found.

Continued to trend higher with pops later Wednesday morning into the
afternoon southwest to northeast across the area. Models agree on a
500 mb shortwave trough moving northeast into the area during this
time. Southerly flow continues at 850 mb, with moisture continuing
to steadily flow into the area. This should be enough to bring
decent chances for showers and storms. Some uncertainty here, as
best forcing for ascent is northwest and south of the area.

Adjusted area forecast soundings suggest mean layer CAPES around
1000 J/kg with 20 knots or so of deep layer shear. Marginal risk for
severe is in the western portions of the area, which looks
reasonable given the better dew points there. Clouds may keep highs
a bit cooler than currently forecast inland, with onshore winds
keeping lakeshore areas quite a bit cooler.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Ongoing convection will begin to wind down from southwest to
northeast during the evening as short wave energy and surface low
move away to the northeast, but still expect a few showers and
storms to fire with southerly winds impinging on a trailing thermal
boundary that stalls somewhere over southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois.

Expect a break in the precipitation for a time Thursday morning into
the afternoon as the boundary lifts northward, but differing timing
among the models leads to at least slight chance PoPs through the
day. 925 mb thermal ridge builds over the state, with 20C to 24C 925
mb temperatures in place by 00Z Friday. Blended temperatures in the
mid-80s may not be warm enough if the middle of the day is dry with
some sun breaking through.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Low-level winds back and increase as 500 mb wave moves out from the
4-corners region into the central Plains, deepening the 500 mb
trough Thursday night into Friday. Focus of the forcing with the low-
level winds is mainly to the west Thursday night, shifting east
Friday with lift aided by weak short wave energy. Again not
expecting all day showers/storms but low confidence to remove rain
chances for any one period. Temperatures will remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

After a short wave trough lifts through the region Saturday into
Sunday, a subtle change to the pattern as a 500 mb low begins to
consolidate over the nw U.S/sw Canada and short wave energy becomes
less active into the Upper Midwest, focusing more back to the
Plains. However broad lee trough over the Plains keeps warm, and
at times moist, flow into the region through the extended, with
precipitable water values hovering around 1 inch. The resulting
instability seems to be the main reason for the diurnally-driven
periods of showers and storms in the models...especially Monday
and Tuesday since there is no obvious strong trigger for
convection. Temperatures will remain a good 7F to 10F above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers are expected to continue moving northeast across
the area into early this evening, before moving to the east of the
area. There may be a few thunderstorms as well during this time, but
timing and placement of storms will be tough to pinpoint with some
uncertainty in areal coverage. For now, will just mention vicinity
thunder in TAFs into early this evening. The southeast sites may end
up dry.

The rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning may end up dry
across the area. Main issue will be low clouds and fog developing
later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially at the eastern
sites. Continued to mention ceilings around or below 2000 feet later
tonight at Milwaukee and perhaps Kenosha, with visibilities down to
1 mile. Dense fog is possible during this time at these sites, but
will leave out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty. The other sites
should see visibilities down to around 3 miles with ceilings above
2000 feet.

Better shot for more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes
Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves north toward the area.
May see a gradual increase in areal coverage of these showers and
storms during the afternoon hours, though some uncertainty remains
here with this. Visibilities and ceilings may drop to or below
alternate minimums in any of the storms. Fog may linger into the
afternoon at Milwaukee and Kenosha as well with onshore winds, but
left out for now due to uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...

Higher dew points gradually moving into the region tonight, and
lingering into the upcoming weekend, will encounter the cooler
waters of Lake Michigan. Light winds later tonight into Wednesday
morning may allow for fog to form over the waters. Continued patchy
fog wording for now later tonight into Wednesday, though stronger
wording may be needed as the higher dew points work into the area.
Dense fog is possible at times during this period, and may need
advisories at times.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...REM




000
FXUS63 KARX 241941
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight thru Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main fcst concerns this period are SHRA/TSRA chances and any severe
potential with them.

Data analysis at 18Z had low pressure over the TX/OK panhandle with
troughing to a weak low in west-central MN. A front extended east
of this low to another east of lk Superior. Area radars and vis
imagery showed main cumulus field and remaining SHRA/TSRA moving
into far eastern IA, eastern WI and U.P of MI as moisture plume
and weak shortwave energy moves east across the region. Shortwave
ridging aloft building over the central/west parts of the region,
with sunny to partly sunny skies and temps mostly in the 70s.

No glaring issues noted with 24.12Z model initializations. GFS sfc
dew point initialized much better today. Models in good agreement
for some hgt rises/shortwave ridging to build across the region
late this afternoon/tonight. This ahead of a stronger piece of
shortwave energy to lift across the central plains tonight, then
across the fcst area Wed. Improving agreement for hgt falls over
the area Wed night as stronger northern plains energy moves into
northwest MN by 12Z Thu. Trend favors stronger of the earlier
models with the ridging tonight then shortwave to pass Wed. With a
tighter model consensus on the details tonight/Wed, short term
fcst confidence is generally good this cycle.

For the short term: Generally quiet (non SHRA/TSRA) weather expected
thru this evening with the weak shortwave ridging building across
the area and the area remaining under the right exit region of a 60-
80kt 300-250MB jet max. Lower level moisture transport hits a
minimum over the area around 00Z this evening. Moisture progs also
showing a decrease of PW over the area thru this evening as the
shortwave ridging builds across. Only potential trigger for any
SHRA/TSRA looks to be a weak sfc front sagging south into the area
this evening. Some MUCape progged to remain over the south half of
the fcst area this evening, however any shear there expected to be
quite weak. Will leave a small -SHRA/TSRA chance across the
southeast end of the fcst area this evening.

All this changes rather quickly after midnight with approach of the
next shortwave. Moisture starts to return/increase rather quickly
after midnight then spreads northeast across the fcst area Wed
morning. This with area under the more favorable right entrance
region of an 80-100kt 300-250MB jet max, PV advection with the
shortwave, PW values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range by late Wed
morning and the increased moisture transport/theta-e convergence.
MUcape of 500-1000 J/KG in the inflow airmass late tonight,
building to 1K to 2K by late Wed morning. Increasing confidence
for a band of SHRA/TSRA to move across the fcst area Wed. Of
course some meso-scale timing difference of this band among the
models. An increase of 0-6KM shear spreads across the area as well
Wed. Enough so that SWODY2 looks good at this time. If faster
models are more correct with the SHRA/TSRA band Wed, SWODY2 for
the area would be a bit overdone with many TSRA all competing for
the same limited energy Wed morning. If slower models are more
correct, the slight risk of severe may intrude more into the fcst
area for the late morning/afternoon hours. One last possibility is
portions of the fcst area getting split by the convection, with a
northern portion following the stronger shortwave/synoptic forcing
and a southern portion feeding on the moisture transport closer to
the greater cape pool just south of the fcst area. Will stay with
50-70% precip chances on Wed for now. SHRA/TSRA chances diminish
Wed night with passage of the shortwave and the moisture plume/
stronger moisture transport being pushed east of the area. If
faster models are more correct, much of Wed night may end up dry.
For now used a model consensus of SHRA/TSRA chances Wed night
given the meso-scale timing differences. Blend of guidance
lows/highs for tonight thru Wed night looks well trended.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday thru Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For Thursday thru Friday night: Main fcst concerns this period are
the continued SHRA/TSRA chances.

24.12Z models in good agreement for rising hgts/shortwave ridging
aloft over the region Thu as the northwest MN shortwave tracks to
north of lk Superior and the next stronger energy from the rockies
troughing ejects into the southern plains. Improving agreement for
troughing to deepen in the central/southern plains Thu night/Fri,
with this trough to then begin lifting toward the Upper Midwest Fri
night. Trend of the model consensus is slower/stronger with the
plains troughing Thu night thru Fri night. Fcst confidence for Thu
thru Fri night is average to good.

Thu would see a relative lull in the SHRA/TSRA chances with weaker
forcing, some drying of the column and the rising hgts/weak
shortwave ridging over the region. However, the airmass progged to
remain unstable with potential for a weak sfc boundary to linger
in/near the area. NAM/GFS progging Thu afternoon dew points into the
70-75F range over much of IA into southern WI, and produce MUcapes
in the 4K-6K J/KG range. This seems unrealistic at this point with
little in the way of greenness in the corn/soybean fields across
IA and nearby states. ECMWF appears much more realistic with its
sfc dew points and cape over the region Thu. Did continue a small
mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA chance Thu. System moving into the
plains spreads increasing moisture/lift across the fcst area
already Thu night then continues this into Fri night. Consensus
SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60% range Thu night thru Fri night
okay for now. As this time period approaches and the meso-scale
details sort them selves out, the entire Thu night thru Fri night
period is not likely to end up wet. Too early to determine much
for details on a severe risk with any of the Thu thru Fri night
TSRA. However a round of stronger to potentially severe storms in
there somewhere cannot be ruled out at this point. Blend of the
guidance highs/lows for Thu thru Fri night looks good for now.

For Saturday thru Tuesday, (days 4 to 7): Main fcst concerns this
period are the SHRA/TSRA chances thru the period in the continued
southwest flow aloft.

Medium range model runs of 24.00Z/24.12Z in reasonably good
agreement for a stronger shortwave trough to be lifting thru the
central plains into Upper Midwest Sat, then across the region Sat
night/Sun. Some timing differences by the day 4-5 time frame (and
for days 6/7), but this not unexpected. Some consensus for shortwave
ridging over the region behind this trough for Sun night/Mon. By
Tue, modest consensus for yet another shortwave trough in the
southwest flow to be lifting northeast toward/into the region as
strong troughing remains over the western CONUS. Given reasonable
model similarity in the longwave pattern, but the shortwave timing
differences, fcst confidence for days 4-7 is average this cycle.

Under southwest flow aloft, the unsettled pattern continues days
4-7. Present consensus timing would spread another surge of Gulf
of Mex moisture northward and a round of deeper layered forcing/
lift across the area Sat/Sat night. The deeper moisture/stronger
forcing would then exit northeast of the area Sun with shortwave
ridging and little forcing for Sun night/Mon. However there are
the timing differences. Consensus SHRA/TSRA chances in the 40-60%
range Sat, lowering into the 20-30% range by Sun night/Mon okay
for now. Next increase of Gulf of Mex moisture and lift would
arrive ahead of the next shortwave trough thru the flow Mon night/
Tue. Consensus 30-40% SHRA/TSRA chances Mon night/Tue reasonable
for now. With a warmer and more moist airmass over the area,
model/ensemble consensus highs/lows remaining a category or 2
above normal for Sat-Tue also looking well trended at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Pretty quiet at the moment with VFR cumulus/mid-cloud cover behind a
weak departing mid-level trough. Looks to remain quiet/VFR through
much of tonight. Will be watching a stronger trough eject northeast
toward the area toward morning which is likely to draw scattered
shra/ts into the vicinity of KRST by 11z and KLSE around 14z.
Scattered shra/ts to remain in the vicinity through 18z...but
expected to remain VFR.

.HYDROLOGY...(Wednesday into Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Not too worried about potential Wed/Wed night rain amounts at this
point. With PW values approaching 1.5 inches, some of the SHRA/TSRA
could be efficient rain makers. With most of the fcst area well
short of normal on moisture since April 1st, the landscape could use
a good drink of water. If some locally heavier rains materialize
Wed/Wed night, then a prolonged period of more widespread SHRA/TSRA
Thu night into Sat (again could be efficient rain makers), some of
the landscape could become saturated by Fri/Sat with potential
runoff issues and rises on area streams and rivers.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....DAS
HYDROLOGY....RRS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 241802 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
102 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers are moving northeast through western and central
portions of the forecast area, associated with a passing weak 500
mb vorticity maximum and some weakly focused 850 mb warm air
advection. Several mesoscale models have these showers shifting
northeast through the area this afternoon, with the HRRR being the
closest to reality so far today.

Adjusting dew points on area forecast soundings from synoptic
models downward, and upward on some of the mesoscale models, gives
500 to 800 J/kg of mean layer CAPE this afternoon into early
evening. So, continued the thunder mention as well. Deep layer
shear is around 20 knots at best, so not anticipating anything
severe. The southeast counties may remain dry until early this
evening.

HRRR and other mesoscale models look rather dry for the rest of
tonight, so may have to trim back pops. Middle clouds helping hold
down temperatures a bit in the area, so may need to adjust them
downward in spots. Still looks to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s
in most areas. Onshore winds along the lake will keep cooler
temperatures there.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers are expected to continue moving northeast across
the area this afternoon, before ending early this evening. There
should be a few thunderstorms as well during this time, but timing
and placement of storms will be tough to pinpoint with some
uncertainty in areal coverage. For now, will just mention
vicinity thunder in TAFs this afternoon into early this evening.

Tonight may end up dry across the area, with the main issue being
low clouds and fog developing later tonight into Wednesday
morning. Continued to mention ceilings around or below 2000 feet
later tonight at Milwaukee and Kenosha, with visibilities down to
1 mile. May see dense fog develop at times later tonight into
early Wednesday morning at these sites, as winds become light. The
other sites should see visibilities down to 3 miles with ceilings
above 2000 feet.

Better shot for more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes
Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves north toward the area.
Should see a gradual increase in areal coverage of these showers
and storms during the afternoon hours. Visibilities and ceilings
may drop to or below alternate minimums in any stronger storms.
Fog may linger into the afternoon at Milwaukee and Kenosha as
well, but left out for now due to uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...

Higher dew points moving into the region tonight into the rest of
the week will encounter the cooler waters of Lake Michigan. Light
winds later tonight into Wednesday morning may allow for areas of
fog to form over the waters. Dense fog is possible during this
time, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed in later forecasts
for this period. The fog may persist at times into this weekend,
with the warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters lingering.
Dense fog may be possible at times into the weekend as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence - Medium.

We know it had to happen eventually.  Blocking high pressure ridge
that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has
finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes.
Our region will now be under the influence of persistent west to
southwest steering flow this period, and through the end of the
week.  This southwest steering flow will usher deeper column
moisture into the area today.  Expect surface dewpoints to increase
into the 50s to around 60 today as column precipitable water more
than doubles to around 1-1.25 inches.  These increasing southwest
winds are carrying a mesoscale convective eddy currently located in
central IA to the northeast.  Short term guidance not handling this
very well as showers and a few tstorms continue to develop and move
northeast.  For now have chance pops in my west early this morning,
but if trend continues, will be bumping up to scattered or possibly
numerous wording.  Spread chance pops across entire CWA later this
morning and afternoon.  Any convection from this morning`s passing
eddy may leave boundary draped across the area. MUCapes are expected
to climb into the 1-2k range with around 30 kts of bulk shear.
Marginal risk seems appropriate this aftn and eve as isold severe
appears possible.

Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high
clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for
inland areas.  Wl keep lower chance pops for the overnight hours as
weak frontal boundary slides south into parts of southern WI and
elevated instability remains. However chance definitely lower
than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and
low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains. Will need to
watch for fog development near the lake as winds turn onshore
later tngt.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The front is expected to lift northward through the forecast area
Wednesday, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.

It will likely be somewhat cooler most places Wednesday with the
front slowly making progress back into the area. Coolest temps
will be near Lake Michigan under east winds. Would not be
surprised at some fog lingering into Wed in the east given the
onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.

SPC has cut back on the Marginal Risk for severe storms for Wed,
with only the southwest forecast area highlighted at this time.

It is starting to look mainly dry on Thursday, as model soundings
are fairly capped. Cut back pops to slight chances most places
during the day. With 925 mb temps of 22-24 C per most guidance,
could be a pretty warm day. Bumped temps up a bit, but not as high
as 925 mb temps would suggest due to some uncertainty with
timing/placement of the front and associated convection.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Shortwave energy along with a surge of deeper moisture should
result in more rounds of showers/storms from Thursday night
through Saturday.

Kept chance pops for Sunday and Monday, but overall moisture will
be less and there is not a real obvious trigger for convection
during this period. Still can`t rule out a few storms though given
the expected instability and precipitable water values hanging on
at 1 to 1.25 inches.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into early next week.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Thicker cloud cover is expected today as deeper column moisture and
weak short wave low pressure pass through this morning. Atmosphere
becomes unstable this morning so possible a few storms could briefly
affect taf sites.  More scattered t-storms expected this aftn and
evening which would have a better chance of affecting eastern taf
sites.  Cigs should remain mostly vfr.  Later tonight a weak front
will sag south into parts of central and southeast Wi and may bring
some lower mvfr cigs to taf sites.

MARINE...

Mariners will need to watch for late morning and afternoon
thunderstorms as deeper moisture and atmospheric low pressure
ripples move into the western Great Lakes today.  The threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a weak frontal
boundary slips south across central into southern Lake Michigan.
The more humid air mass and lighter winds near the front may
result in areas of fog tonight into Wednesday. Lake temperatures
are in the upper 40s to middle 50s. With the humid air remaining
place through the end of the week, fog will be a concern each day.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wood
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 241715
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Precipitation trends, severe thunderstorm potential and
temperatures are the main fcst concerns.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has waned a bit over the past
several hours, but a small area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms was moving through north central WI early this
morning. This activity appeared to be sustained by a mid-level
short-wave trof along the leading edge of a moisture axis, and
is expected to wane as the short-wave trof quickly exits the
region this morning.

With most of the pcpn tapering off early and some breaks in the
clouds expected, have increased max temps a few degrees today.
modified fcst sounding (82/60 around GRB) for this afternoon
indicates CAPE increasing to around 1500 j/kg. This, combined
with deep layer shear of 30-40 kts, may be sufficient for isold
strong to severe tstms to develop. SPC has placed the entire fcst
area in a Marginal risk of severe tstms, which seems reasonable.
Activity should be focused along a frontal boundary sagging into
northern WI this afternoon, and possibly near lake/bay breeze
boundaries in eastern WI.

Expect convection to gradually weaken after sunset tonight, and
probably end from north to south as the cold front moves through.
The front will not get very far south of the region on Weds
morning, and is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front
as low pressure approaches from the plains during the afternoon.
the sfc/H8 warm fronts and the arrival of another short-wave trof
will generate additional showers and tstms by Weds afternoon,
especially over our western and southern counties. Instability is
not expected to be as strong as today, but is expected to
increase over c/ec WI during the afternoon. Will need to keep an
eye on our sw counties for severe potential as the warm front
approaches late in the day, but SPC has the Marginal risk just to
our southwest right now. temperatures will be a bit cooler on
Weds, mainly in the 70s, with low to mid 60s along the Lake
Michigan shoreline.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Mean flow to generally consist of an Eastern Pacific upper ridge,
a broad upper trough over the western half of the CONUS and an
upper ridge to build toward the Mid-Atlantic states. This pattern
to essentially hold into early next week with a SW flow into WI
bringing an active weather pattern with temperatures holding above
normal. Main focus to be on trying to time precipitation chances,
potential for any severe storms and whether we can find a day
where precipitation is not in the forecast.

Prevailing SW flow aloft is expected to persist into the Great
Lakes Wednesday night with the models in agreement with the
movement of a mid-level shortwave trough lifting NE through NE WI
mainly during Wednesday evening. Increasing mid-level forcing...
in concert with increasing isentropic lift...should provide for
showers/thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. The main
frontal boundary is expected to remain to our south through the
night, thus a lack of strong instability would preclude a
widespread severe potential...although an isolated strong storm
cannot be ruled out. Min temperatures to remain mild with readings
in the lower to middle 50s north/lakeshore, upper 50s to around 60
degrees south.

Precipitation chances actually look minimal on Thursday as the
mid-level shortwave trough continues to track away from the
region. The only real concern would the location of the warm front
and whether this feature could set off more showers and storms. If
this front can lift to our north without any precipitation,
Thursday could definitely feel like summer with max temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s north...lower 80s south (cooler lakeside)
and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Not surprisingly under this SW flow aloft, models begin to have
difficulty with the timing of the next prominent shortwave trough
to eject NEWD out of the main upper trough situated over the
Rockies. The next of these potential shortwave troughs begins to
lift toward WI Thursday night with the majority of the models
bringing showers/thunderstorms back to NE WI. Have maintained the
medium to high-chc pops per previous forecast with min
temperatures similar to Wednesday night. Shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to carry over into Friday as this lates shortwave
trough moves through the Great Lakes and southerly winds continue
to pump gulf moisture into WI. More clouds with precipitation in
the vicinity will keep temperatures a little cooler than previous
days with readings more in the mid to upper 70s, again cooler near
Lake MI.

This unsettled weather pattern appears to be locked in over the
Great Lakes through most of the upcoming holiday weekend as a
large piece of the main upper trough is progged to move NE through
the Midwest on Saturday, into the Great Lakes Saturday night/
Sunday morning before pulling to the north Sunday afternoon. While
the atmosphere over NE WI to be very moist and unstable, severe
weather threat will come down to whether we can get enough breaks
in the cloud cover to allow instability parameters to really take
off. Another potential problem is the forecast lack of shear by
the models (around 20 kts) to help sustain updrafts. For now,
prefer to try and focus on best time frame for showers/
thunderstorms which looks to be Saturday afternoon into Sundary
morning period. Max temperatures this weekend to remain about 5 to
10 degrees above normal for late May.

Even with the passage and eventual exit of this prominent
shortwave trough headed into Sunday night, NE WI to still be in a
SW flow aloft and there could be a few lingering showers or
thunderstorms Sunday night or even Monday. Pops should be in the
lower chance category by this time with little change in
temperatures anticipated.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A weak cold front will drop south across the area later this
afternoon and tonight. The front will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to much of the region this afternoon into this
evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce strong gusty
winds and hail. Later tonight, low clouds and fog are expected to
develop across much of the region. Any low clouds and fog should
burn off by 15z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
move across the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Eckberg




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241147
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Precipitation trends, severe thunderstorm potential and
temperatures are the main fcst concerns.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has waned a bit over the past
several hours, but a small area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms was moving through north central WI early this
morning. This activity appeared to be sustained by a mid-level
short-wave trof along the leading edge of a moisture axis, and
is expected to wane as the short-wave trof quickly exits the
region this morning.

With most of the pcpn tapering off early and some breaks in the
clouds expected, have increased max temps a few degrees today.
modified fcst sounding (82/60 around GRB) for this afternoon
indicates CAPE increasing to around 1500 j/kg. This, combined
with deep layer shear of 30-40 kts, may be sufficient for isold
strong to severe tstms to develop. SPC has placed the entire fcst
area in a Marginal risk of severe tstms, which seems reasonable.
Activity should be focused along a frontal boundary sagging into
northern WI this afternoon, and possibly near lake/bay breeze
boundaries in eastern WI.

Expect convection to gradually weaken after sunset tonight, and
probably end from north to south as the cold front moves through.
The front will not get very far south of the region on Weds
morning, and is expected to lift back to the north as a warm front
as low pressure approaches from the plains during the afternoon.
the sfc/H8 warm fronts and the arrival of another short-wave trof
will generate additional showers and tstms by Weds afternoon,
especially over our western and southern counties. Instability is
not expected to be as strong as today, but is expected to
increase over c/ec WI during the afternoon. Will need to keep an
eye on our sw counties for severe potential as the warm front
approaches late in the day, but SPC has the Marginal risk just to
our southwest right now. temperatures will be a bit cooler on
Weds, mainly in the 70s, with low to mid 60s along the Lake
Michigan shoreline.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Mean flow to generally consist of an Eastern Pacific upper ridge,
a broad upper trough over the western half of the CONUS and an
upper ridge to build toward the Mid-Atlantic states. This pattern
to essentially hold into early next week with a SW flow into WI
bringing an active weather pattern with temperatures holding above
normal. Main focus to be on trying to time precipitation chances,
potential for any severe storms and whether we can find a day
where precipitation is not in the forecast.

Prevailing SW flow aloft is expected to persist into the Great
Lakes Wednesday night with the models in agreement with the
movement of a mid-level shortwave trough lifting NE through NE WI
mainly during Wednesday evening. Increasing mid-level forcing...
in concert with increasing isentropic lift...should provide for
showers/thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. The main
frontal boundary is expected to remain to our south through the
night, thus a lack of strong instability would preclude a
widespread severe potential...although an isolated strong storm
cannot be ruled out. Min temperatures to remain mild with readings
in the lower to middle 50s north/lakeshore, upper 50s to around 60
degrees south.

Precipitation chances actually look minimal on Thursday as the
mid-level shortwave trough continues to track away from the
region. The only real concern would the location of the warm front
and whether this feature could set off more showers and storms. If
this front can lift to our north without any precipitation,
Thursday could definitely feel like summer with max temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s north...lower 80s south (cooler lakeside)
and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Not surprisingly under this SW flow aloft, models begin to have
difficulty with the timing of the next prominent shortwave trough
to eject NEWD out of the main upper trough situated over the
Rockies. The next of these potential shortwave troughs begins to
lift toward WI Thursday night with the majority of the models
bringing showers/thunderstorms back to NE WI. Have maintained the
medium to high-chc pops per previous forecast with min
temperatures similar to Wednesday night. Shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to carry over into Friday as this lates shortwave
trough moves through the Great Lakes and southerly winds continue
to pump gulf moisture into WI. More clouds with precipitation in
the vicinity will keep temperatures a little cooler than previous
days with readings more in the mid to upper 70s, again cooler near
Lake MI.

This unsettled weather pattern appears to be locked in over the
Great Lakes through most of the upcoming holiday weekend as a
large piece of the main upper trough is progged to move NE through
the Midwest on Saturday, into the Great Lakes Saturday night/
Sunday morning before pulling to the north Sunday afternoon. While
the atmosphere over NE WI to be very moist and unstable, severe
weather threat will come down to whether we can get enough breaks
in the cloud cover to allow instability parameters to really take
off. Another potential problem is the forecast lack of shear by
the models (around 20 kts) to help sustain updrafts. For now,
prefer to try and focus on best time frame for showers/
thunderstorms which looks to be Saturday afternoon into Sundary
morning period. Max temperatures this weekend to remain about 5 to
10 degrees above normal for late May.

Even with the passage and eventual exit of this prominent
shortwave trough headed into Sunday night, NE WI to still be in a
SW flow aloft and there could be a few lingering showers or
thunderstorms Sunday night or even Monday. Pops should be in the
lower chance category by this time with little change in
temperatures anticipated.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

An upper level disturbance will bring sct showers and tstms to the
region this morning. Additional tstms are expected to develop as
instability increases this afternoon, and a cold front drops into
northern WI. The front will move through the region tonight, with
showers ending, and patches of low clouds/fog developing, behind
it. cigs/vsby should drop to ifr in spots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kallas
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch




000
FXUS63 KARX 241139
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Water vapor satellite early this morning indicates a couple of
short wave troughs are over the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska.
These waves will move to the northeast and past the area early
this morning with rising upper level heights expected for much of
the day. The hi-res models indicate the showers and storms over
western Iowa ahead of the Nebraska wave will continue to move
northeast and then start to rapidly weaken once they move past
Interstate 35 and begin to move into some drier air. Dew points
are currently in the lower 60s where this activity is occurring
and then drop into the lower to middle 50s across eastern Iowa so
the weakening trend in the hi-res models makes sense. With the
rising heights for the remainder of the day, there doesn`t really
look to be much of trigger to cause additional activity to form
and the hi-res models only show the possibility of some widely
scattered activity during the afternoon.

Heights will start to lower again tonight as the next short wave
trough comes out of the Rockies and moves across the Dakotas.
Decent agreement between the models that a convective complex
should form over the Dakotas ahead of this wave tonight and move
northeast into Minnesota. Not as good agreement between the models
as to whether a second complex will form farther south over
Kansas on the nose of the low level jet. The 24.00Z NAM and GFS
both seem to support this idea and generate a MCV that then moves
northeast toward the area late tonight and across the area
Wednesday. As this wave is coming across, the low level jet should
start to strengthen again during the afternoon with the nose of
this possibly right over the forecast area. However, at this
point, there is little support from the hi-res models of the
activity making into the area late tonight into Wednesday or
redeveloping over the area. Confidence that the broad scale models
have the right idea with these convective complexes is not very
high but will try to maintain some continuity with the previous
forecasts. Will continue to have up to a 60 percent chance of rain
late tonight that spreads across the entire area Wednesday.

If this activity can generate over the area Wednesday, it should
progress off the east/northeast Wednesday night with a general
drying trend across the western sections. Thursday morning looks
like there should be a lull in the activity before the forcing may
start to increase again during the afternoon. All the models show
an upper level low over North Dakota that becomes an open wave
during the afternoon. The NAM suggest a rather strong short wave
trough could be rotating around this upper level low while the GFS
and 24.00Z ECMWF really don`t show this wave at all. Even without
this short wave trough, the GFS does indicate some moisture
transport back into the area with some lift spreading over the
area from the upper level low. For now, will bump the rain chances
up into the 30 to 40 percent range for the afternoon.

The potential for severe storms looks rather limited through
Thursday. The limiting factor for today and Wednesday looks to be
an overall lack of decent shear. The potential on Thursday then
depends on which model has the correct solution. Looking at
forecast soundings for KRST Thursday afternoon, the NAM indicates
around 3500 J/Kg of CAPE will be in place with around 50 knots of
shear while the GFS shows a mid level cap with 1300 J/Kg of CAPE
above the cap but only 15 to 20 knots of shear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The southwest flow aloft looks to continue into the Memorial Day
holiday weekend. Right now, there is good model agreement of an
upper level low lifting out of the desert southwest and across the
upper Missouri River valley for the beginning of the weekend. With
the southwest flow and the potential for embedded short wave
troughs, will have persistent rain chances in the forecast with
the highest threat looking to be Friday as the upper level low
approaches the region. These rain chances will then decrease with
the passage of the upper level low with only a small 20 to 30
percent chance on Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Even with southwest flow for a day or two now, saturation has been
exceedingly slow given weakness of lift and dry airmass. Finally
seeing mainly mid level clouds around for VFR ceilings this morning
but remnants of convective system moving out of Iowa this morning is
weakening quickly.

Once that moves through, could see some decrease in cloud cover and
trend to scattered clouds for much of day. Weak boundary, or remnant
of outflow, could produce some afternoon or early evening convection
but meso-scale models are bearish on coverage so appears very minor
threat to aviation.

Upstream convective complexes possible tonight but outside of some
high clouds streaming in advance of rain threat Wednesday, could see
some fog around with relatively weak flow and low level airmass
gradually saturating.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence - Medium.

We know it had to happen eventually.  Blocking high pressure ridge
that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has
finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes.
Our region will now be under the influence of persistent west to
southwest steering flow this period, and through the end of the
week.  This southwest steering flow will usher deeper column
moisture into the area today.  Expect surface dewpoints to increase
into the 50s to around 60 today as column precipitable water more
than doubles to around 1-1.25 inches.  These increasing southwest
winds are carrying a mesoscale convective eddy currently located in
central IA to the northeast.  Short term guidance not handling this
very well as showers and a few tstorms continue to develop and move
northeast.  For now have chance pops in my west early this morning,
but if trend continues, will be bumping up to scattered or possibly
numerous wording.  Spread chance pops across entire CWA later this
morning and afternoon.  Any convection from this morning`s passing
eddy may leave boundary draped across the area. MUCapes are expected
to climb into the 1-2k range with around 30 kts of bulk shear.
Marginal risk seems appropriate this aftn and eve as isold severe
appears possible.

Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high
clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for
inland areas.  Wl keep lower chance pops for the overnight hours as
weak frontal boundary slides south into parts of southern WI and
elevated instability remains. However chance definitely lower
than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and
low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains. Will need to
watch for fog development near the lake as winds turn onshore
later tngt.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The front is expected to lift northward through the forecast area
Wednesday, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.

It will likely be somewhat cooler most places Wednesday with the
front slowly making progress back into the area. Coolest temps
will be near Lake Michigan under east winds. Would not be
surprised at some fog lingering into Wed in the east given the
onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.

SPC has cut back on the Marginal Risk for severe storms for Wed,
with only the southwest forecast area highlighted at this time.

It is starting to look mainly dry on Thursday, as model soundings
are fairly capped. Cut back pops to slight chances most places
during the day. With 925 mb temps of 22-24 C per most guidance,
could be a pretty warm day. Bumped temps up a bit, but not as high
as 925 mb temps would suggest due to some uncertainty with
timing/placement of the front and associated convection.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Shortwave energy along with a surge of deeper moisture should
result in more rounds of showers/storms from Thursday night
through Saturday.

Kept chance pops for Sunday and Monday, but overall moisture will
be less and there is not a real obvious trigger for convection
during this period. Still can`t rule out a few storms though given
the expected instability and precipitable water values hanging on
at 1 to 1.25 inches.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Thicker cloud cover is expected today as deeper column moisture and
weak short wave low pressure pass through this morning. Atmosphere
becomes unstable this morning so possible a few storms could briefly
affect taf sites.  More scattered t-storms expected this aftn and
evening which would have a better chance of affecting eastern taf
sites.  Cigs should remain mostly vfr.  Later tonight a weak front
will sag south into parts of central and southeast Wi and may bring
some lower mvfr cigs to taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Mariners will need to watch for late morning and afternoon
thunderstorms as deeper moisture and atmospheric low pressure
ripples move into the western Great Lakes today.  The threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a weak frontal
boundary slips south across central into southern Lake Michigan.
The more humid air mass and lighter winds near the front may
result in areas of fog tonight into Wednesday. Lake temperatures
are in the upper 40s to middle 50s. With the humid air remaining
place through the end of the week, fog will be a concern each day.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 240448
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

At 3 PM, the upper level ridge and 1017 mb surface high, which
brought the dry weather to the region through the weekend, had
moved east into Michigan. Even though this was the case, southeast
winds in its wake have lowered dew points into the 40s in western
Wisconsin this afternoon. Meanwhile in northeast Iowa and
southeast Minnesota, southerly winds ahead of a long wave trough
have allowed surface dew points to climb into the 50s and lower
60s. Scattered showers and storms have developed west of a Lake
City MN to Charles City IA line. These are developing ahead of a
short wave trough moving northeast out of north-central Iowa and
in the right entrance region of a 90-knot 250 mb jet.

For tonight, the 23.12z models are in fairly good agreement that
the short wave in Iowa will move northeast through eastern
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile another short wave
trough will move to the south of the region. Many of the meso
models are too rambunctious with their reflectivity products for
tonight. This is due to these models being too high with their dew
points and this ultimately causes their CAPES to be too high.
Overall prefer the HRRR and RAP solutions the best. They are still
a bit too high with their dew points, but their reflectivity looks
the most realistic. Due to this, kept the highest rain chance
north of Interstate 90.

On Tuesday, the models continue to show that a weak trough will
settle south across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is
very little convergence along this trough. With diurnal heating,
the 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
ahead of this system. Any convection that does happen to develop
will likely have to rely any residual boundaries left over from
tonight and differential heating during the afternoon. Due to
this, kept rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range. With
continual weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, no organized severe
weather is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

From Wednesday night into Sunday, the models are showing a wide
variety of solutions, so confidence remains low on any timing of
precipitation and whether there will any organized severe weather
will even occur.

The ECMWF moves a trough through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley on Wednesday night and has the surface warm front well to
our south of Thursday. Some elevated instability (1-2 K 0-1 km
mixed layer CAPES) moves into areas south of Interstate 90 late
Thursday afternoon and evening, but there is only weak shear
across the area. With the front remaining to our south, the
instability remains less than 1000 J/kg through Saturday night and
then moves north on Sunday as a short wave ejects out of the
western trough. However this signal has been really inconsistent.

Meanwhile the NAM keeps the cold front west of the area on
Wednesday night. This allows the 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES to climb
into the 2 to 4K J/kg range on Thursday afternoon. While there is
sufficient deep shear for supercell development, there is a cap
aloft between 825 and 775 mb which may prohibit convective
development.

The GFS shows similar instability on Thursday afternoon. However
it has marginal shear. For the remainder of this period, both the
instability and shear remain weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Line of showers with embedded thunderstorms from Omaha, NE to
Duluth, MN will continue to weaken as it moves east-northeast
overnight. As a result, removed all shower/storm mention at
KRST/KLSE through the period. Some forecast guidance still
suggests rapid MVFR ceiling development around sunrise and
continuing into Tuesday morning as remnant moisture moves through
the region. With no rain at KLSE this evening and persistent dry
air mass, removed lower ceilings. However, with a couple hours of
heavier showers/storms at KRST, kept a TEMPO group for some MVFR
ceilings from 24.12Z through 24.16Z. Expect a return to VFR
conditions by late Tuesday morning, continuing through the rest of
the period. Light southerly winds overnight will turn to the
west-southwest Tuesday before becoming light and variable Tuesday
evening.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 232332
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
632 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A change to a much wetter weather pattern, but with temperatures
generally remaining above normal.

The sharp upper ridge which brought several warm and dry days to
the area is gradually breaking down and shifting east. But the
upstream trough over the western CONUS is expected to remain in
place. The result will be the development of southwest upper flow
across the forecast area. Once in place, the southwest flow is
likely to persist at least through next weekend.

The southwest flow will bring mild temperatures and considerable
precipitation. Although the specifics of the precipitation
chances will be hard to ascertain, it is very likely that amounts
for the next 7 days will be above normal. Daily temperatures will
vary depending on amount of clouds and precipitation, but readings
are expected to be at or above normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Another warm day was noted across the region with temperatures in
the lower to middle 80s away from the bay and lake. Afternoon
relative humidity readings at most places dropped into the 20 to
30 percent range. Winds gusted as high as 35 mph across portions
of north-central Wisconsin.

For tonight, a cold front will approach from the west. Showers
and thunderstorms will move into north-central and central
Wisconsin this evening. Some of the storms may be capable of
producing gusty winds and small hail. The showers and storms will
struggle into eastern Wisconsin due to the dry air mass in place.
The lake shore region may not see any rain until after 7 am.
Took a blend of the guidance tonight due to cloud cover and
persistent south winds.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will sag south across the area.
Bufkit soundings indicated close to 1000 j/kg, total totals of 50
to 55, and low wet bulb heights from 8500-9500 feet at Green Bay.
If we can get ample sunshine, some of the stronger storms could
produce strong gusty winds and hail. An isolated severe storm
could not be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Long-term forecast challenges continue to be the specifics of the
precipitation chances, and the risk of severe weather.

As typical for a southwest flow regime where precipitation chances
are tied to fairly small scale shortwaves, the details of the
precipitation forecast look a little different again today.
Frontal boundary is still expected to sag south across the area
Tuesday night, but upper support for precipitation during that
time will be limited. So will continue to have a lull in the
precipitation chances Tuesday night. Precipitation chances will
increase from the southwest Wednesday, as isentropic lift over the
frontal boundary increases and a mid-level shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Maintained the likely PoPs we have been
carrying in the forecast for Wednesday night, then tapered back to
chance PoPs for Thursday as the shortwave shifts off to the
northeast. Another significant round of precipitation is likely
early in the weekend as another significant shortwave heads across
the region. Precipitation could occur at other times as well, but
the smaller scale of the shortwaves affecting the area at those
times make timing difficult, and resulted in chance PoPs in most
periods.

As far as the severe weather threat is concerned, the SPC
continues to focus the primary severe weather risk south of the
forecast area throughout the week. That seems reasonable given
the likely position of the main frontal boundary to our south. But
given the increasingly moist and unstable airmass likely to be
across the area, it is certainly possible that the severe risk
could expand northeast into the forecast area at times. But
determining when that would occur is very difficult.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

vfr conditions should prevail through at least
midnight. a weak frontal system will bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the region late tonight and tuesday. mvfr cigs
and vsbys could accompany any shower or thunderstorm activity that
materializes.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-073-074.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KARX 232055
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
355 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

At 3 PM, the upper level ridge and 1017 mb surface high, which
brought the dry weather to the region through the weekend, had
moved east into Michigan. Even though this was the case, southeast
winds in its wake have lowered dew points into the 40s in western
Wisconsin this afternoon. Meanwhile in northeast Iowa and
southeast Minnesota, southerly winds ahead of a long wave trough
have allowed surface dew points to climb into the 50s and lower
60s. Scattered showers and storms have developed west of a Lake
City MN to Charles City IA line. These are developing ahead of a
short wave trough moving northeast out of north-central Iowa and
in the right entrance region of a 90-knot 250 mb jet.

For tonight, the 23.12z models are in fairly good agreement that
the short wave in Iowa will move northeast through eastern
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile another short wave
trough will move to the south of the region. Many of the meso
models are too rambunctious with their reflectivity products for
tonight. This is due to these models being too high with their dew
points and this ultimately causes their CAPES to be too high.
Overall prefer the HRRR and RAP solutions the best. They are still
a bit too high with their dew points, but their reflectivity looks
the most realistic. Due to this, kept the highest rain chance
north of Interstate 90.

On Tuesday, the models continue to show that a weak trough will
settle south across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. There is
very little convergence along this trough. With diurnal heating,
the 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
ahead of this system. Any convection that does happen to develop
will likely have to rely any residual boundaries left over from
tonight and differential heating during the afternoon. Due to
this, kept rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range. With
continual weak 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear, no organized severe
weather is anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

From Wednesday night into Sunday, the models are showing a wide
variety of solutions, so confidence remains low on any timing of
precipitation and whether there will any organized severe weather
will even occur.

The ECMWF moves a trough through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley on Wednesday night and has the surface warm front well to
our south of Thursday. Some elevated instability (1-2 K 0-1 km
mixed layer CAPES) moves into areas south of Interstate 90 late
Thursday afternoon and evening, but there is only weak shear
across the area. With the front remaining to our south, the
instability remains less than 1000 J/kg through Saturday night and
then moves north on Sunday as a short wave ejects out of the
western trough. However this signal has been really inconsistent.

Meanwhile the NAM keeps the cold front west of the area on
Wednesday night. This allows the 0-1 km mixed layer CAPES to climb
into the 2 to 4K J/kg range on Thursday afternoon. While there is
sufficient deep shear for supercell development, there is a cap
aloft between 825 and 775 mb which may prohibit convective
development.

The GFS shows similar instability on Thursday afternoon. However
it has marginal shear. For the remainder of this period, both the
instability and shear remain weak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A tricky and lower confidence forecast heading through the night.
Moisture continues to very slowly increase across the area, and
should ultimately help fuel a couple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be at KRST into late
afternoon and early evening, with some remnant showers and maybe a
few storms working through the area overnight, but with low
confidence regarding just how widespread activity will be. With
lighter winds through the night and pooling moisture as a weak
frontal boundary drops into the area, do think there is a good
shot at MVFR ceiling development for both KLSE and KRST, with
perhaps even a brief period of IFR at KRST. However, if we don`t
realize much in the way of rainfall, wouldn`t be shocked to see
VFR conditions hold at KLSE right on through the entire TAF
period. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will diminish to
around 10 knots or less through the night.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...Lawrence




000
FXUS63 KARX 231740
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over
the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies
and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. Several
shortwave troughs wrapping around the upper level trough are
producing showers and thunderstorms from the Northern Plains to the
High Plains.

Main forecast concerns are precipitation chances today into tonight.
The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper
level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly
flow aloft over the central United States. The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in
good agreement in weakening ongoing convection in association with
first impulse over the Northern Plains...as instability weakens out
of ahead of the convection. Second piece of energy embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft pushes into the Upper Great Lakes region
late this afternoon and tonight. The 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF indicate
moisture transport/convection and lift in association with this
piece of energy. However...the models show some weakening of the
moisture transport/convergence and focus this across the far
northern and southern sections of the forecast area. This is
evident...as the hi-resolution/CAMS models indicate redevelopment
convection to form across the far northern/southern sections of
the forecast area late this afternoon. Continued trend of higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms over these areas.

Confidence in severe potential remains very low...as the 23.00z
GFS/NAM continue indicate 20-25 knots of 0-3 km shear and up to
1000 J/kg of CAPE. Not anticipating any severe weather with the
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday into Wednesday
night...as the 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF eject a couple of shortwave
troughs out of the upper level trough over the western United States
into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Differences occur between the
models on timing/placement of the shortwave troughs. The 23.00z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF hint at focusing the stronger moisture
transport/convergence and placement of surface front south of the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This would result in
developing stronger convection south of the forecast area.
However...if the forecast area builds enough instability and given
the wind shear at 0-3km of 20 to 30 knots...some of the
thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Main forecast concerns Thursday into Sunday continue to be
precipitation chances across the forecast area...as the 23.00z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM show southwesterly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs tracking into the Upper Great Lakes Region.
Timing and placement of individual shortwave troughs continue to
be the main issues between the long range models. Will continue
with trend of shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast
area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A tricky and lower confidence forecast heading through the night.
Moisture continues to very slowly increase across the area, and
should ultimately help fuel a couple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance looks to be at KRST into late
afternoon and early evening, with some remnant showers and maybe a
few storms working through the area overnight, but with low
confidence regarding just how widespread activity will be. With
lighter winds through the night and pooling moisture as a weak
frontal boundary drops into the area, do think there is a good
shot at MVFR ceiling development for both KLSE and KRST, with
perhaps even a brief period of IFR at KRST. However, if we don`t
realize much in the way of rainfall, wouldn`t be shocked to see
VFR conditions hold at KLSE right on through the entire TAF
period. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will diminish to
around 10 knots or less through the night.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...Lawrence




000
FXUS63 KARX 231133
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over
the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies
and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. Several
shortwave troughs wrapping around the upper level trough are
producing showers and thunderstorms from the Northern Plains to the
High Plains.

Main forecast concerns are precipitation chances today into tonight.
The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper
level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly
flow aloft over the central United States. The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in
good agreement in weakening ongoing convection in association with
first impulse over the Northern Plains...as instability weakens out
of ahead of the convection. Second piece of energy embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft pushes into the Upper Great Lakes region
late this afternoon and tonight. The 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF indicate
moisture transport/convection and lift in association with this
piece of energy. However...the models show some weakening of the
moisture transport/convergence and focus this across the far
northern and southern sections of the forecast area. This is
evident...as the hi-resolution/CAMS models indicate redevelopment
convection to form across the far northern/southern sections of
the forecast area late this afternoon. Continued trend of higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms over these areas.

Confidence in severe potential remains very low...as the 23.00z
GFS/NAM continue indicate 20-25 knots of 0-3 km shear and up to
1000 J/kg of CAPE. Not anticipating any severe weather with the
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday into Wednesday
night...as the 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF eject a couple of shortwave
troughs out of the upper level trough over the western United States
into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Differences occur between the
models on timing/placement of the shortwave troughs. The 23.00z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF hint at focusing the stronger moisture
transport/convergence and placement of surface front south of the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This would result in
developing stronger convection south of the forecast area.
However...if the forecast area builds enough instability and given
the wind shear at 0-3km of 20 to 30 knots...some of the
thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Main forecast concerns Thursday into Sunday continue to be
precipitation chances across the forecast area...as the 23.00z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM show southwesterly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs tracking into the Upper Great Lakes Region.
Timing and placement of individual shortwave troughs continue to
be the main issues between the long range models. Will continue
with trend of shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast
area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Decaying convection to the west has led to more cloud cover this
morning but still looking at VFR conditions area-wide. Some of the
outflow may trigger mid level sprinkles or showers for a few hours
this morning but guidance suggests this should weaken with bulk of
day dry.

As airmass to the west continues to saturate in southwest flow,
expect lowering ceilings tonight, which could become at least MVFR.
Besides that, a lot will depend on if and where convection forms
with lots of uncertainty. Forcing is not strong and instability will
be limited so will keep idea of scattered showers and isolated
thunder risk in with idea that more details can be added in short
term.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231021
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
521 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Most locations will start out sunny today with dry warm conditions.
Some mid to high level clouds may spill over the western two
thirds of the state today as a frontal system extending over the
northern and central plains approaches.

Progs have been consistent with holding off the precipitation
overall until tonight. Reaching Central and North Central
Wisconsin this evening and then Eastern Wisconsin well after
midnight. Precipitation primarily along and ahead of the 850
trough swinging through. The 850 boundary weakens overnight and
will also be encountering the initially dry air mass while
tracking eastward...so will keep pcpn chances on the lower side
over Eastern Wisconsin late tonight and then chance cat for
Tuesday. Upper heights rise later Tuesday to the west to diminish
or end the precipitation over at least North Central Wisconsin
earlier in the day. Some timing issues with respect to this 850
trough and surface front show up with the latest nam run the
slowest. Blend of the rest of model runs trend toward a
progressive end to the convection from northwest to southeast
during the afternoon.

As far as strength of storms tonight into Tuesday, the main
portion of the llj works into the northwest part of the state this
evening and it is possible a few near severe storms could work
into North Central Wisconsin this evening. SPC marginal risk of
severe storms appears reasonable this evening. The llj weakens
overnight and then is working with marginal instability overnight
into tuesday morning. The gfs does produce 1000 j/kg capes for
tuesday afternoon over eastern wisconsin. The NAM and SREF
produce values half of the gfs readings.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Upper level flow is expected to become southwest by the start of
the long term forecast, resulting in a rather warm and wet pattern
that is expected to last through the weekend. Timing of the
precipitation chances depends on timing of short waves in the
upper flow, and the location of a frontal boundary that will move
into Wisconsin tonight/Tuesday.

00z models suggested a lull in the precipitation for Tuesday
night with weak surface and upper level ridging across the area,
so kept both POPS and QPF relatively low for that period. There is
a better chance for showers and storms on Wednesday as an upper
level short wave moves into Wisconsin. Confidence in timing of
precipitation was on the low side, even for the early couple of
periods, and it decreases throughout the latter half of the week
and weekend. Have left the blended model solution along for the
rest of the forecast for that reason. Unfortunately this also
results in a chance for showers and storms through the end of the
forecast.

High temperatures should be at or above normal through the end of
the forecast. Overnight lows will be considerably warmer than
normal.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A period of Low level wind shear expected this
morning with a llj to 35 knots over the western half of the state.
Gusty south winds will develop today ahead of a frontal system
approaching from the west. Otherwise vfr conditions expected
today into this evening. Scattered mvfr cigs and vsbys are likely
tonight as showers and storms track across the state.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

One more dry day today with warm temperatures. Gusty south winds
combined with the warm temperatures and low afternoon relative
humidity will produce critical fire weather conditions through 8
pm. Headlines already in effect for today.

Increasing dewpoints with showers and storms tonight into Tuesday
will remove the critical conditions.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>021-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
FIRE WEATHER...TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 230819
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
319 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows upper level trough over
the southern Canadian Rockies and the northern United States Rockies
and upper level ridge over the Upper Great Lakes Region. Several
shortwave troughs wrapping around the upper level trough are
producing showers and thunderstorms from the Northern Plains to the
High Plains.

Main forecast concerns are precipitation chances today into tonight.
The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in good agreement in breaking down upper
level ridge over the Great Lakes Region and developing southwesterly
flow aloft over the central United States. The 23.00z GFS/NAM are in
good agreement in weakening ongoing convection in association with
first impulse over the Northern Plains...as instability weakens out
of ahead of the convection. Second piece of energy embedded in
southwesterly flow aloft pushes into the Upper Great Lakes region
late this afternoon and tonight. The 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF indicate
moisture transport/convection and lift in association with this
piece of energy. However...the models show some weakening of the
moisture transport/convergence and focus this across the far
northern and southern sections of the forecast area. This is
evident...as the hi-resolution/CAMS models indicate redevelopment
convection to form across the far northern/southern sections of
the forecast area late this afternoon. Continued trend of higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms over these areas.

Confidence in severe potential remains very low...as the 23.00z
GFS/NAM continue indicate 20-25 knots of 0-3 km shear and up to
1000 J/kg of CAPE. Not anticipating any severe weather with the
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Unsettled weather pattern continues Tuesday into Wednesday
night...as the 23.00z GFS/NAM/ECMWF eject a couple of shortwave
troughs out of the upper level trough over the western United States
into the Upper Great Lakes Region. Differences occur between the
models on timing/placement of the shortwave troughs. The 23.00z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF hint at focusing the stronger moisture
transport/convergence and placement of surface front south of the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This would result in
developing stronger convection south of the forecast area.
However...if the forecast area builds enough instability and given
the wind shear at 0-3km of 20 to 30 knots...some of the
thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Main forecast concerns Thursday into Sunday continue to be
precipitation chances across the forecast area...as the 23.00z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM show southwesterly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave troughs tracking into the Upper Great Lakes Region.
Timing and placement of individual shortwave troughs continue to
be the main issues between the long range models. Will continue
with trend of shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast
area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Cirrus will slowly push eastward overnight, but bigger impact will
be strengthening winds aloft. Kept wind shear component at KRST
through 23.13Z, and also added one at KLSE with surface winds
dropping below 5 kts and winds at 2000 ft agl around 35 kts.

Removed VCSH at KRST Monday morning as latest guidance now shows
convective activity currently across the eastern Dakotas
completely falling apart before reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. In fact, low confidence in timing and coverage of
additional thunderstorms later in the period, so kept TAFs
thunder-free at this time. Will add details as convective
evolution becomes clearer. Unless a thunderstorm moves directly
over a TAF site, expect VFR ceilings/visibility through the
period.

Expect gusty southerly winds mid Monday morning and through the
afternoon with frequent gusts into the mid to upper 20 kt range at
both TAF sites. Would not be surprised to see some gusts topping
30 kts at KRST.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




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