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000
FXUS63 KMKX 142121
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE IS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS FROM THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

A QUICK INCH OR SO OF FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SLIPPERY ROADS INTO
THIS EVENING.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING...TAKING
THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH IT. WEAKER UPWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THIS SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...AS THE DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE ADVISORY AREA SOONER
THAN THE END OF THE ADVISORY TIMING OF 03Z MONDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
SNOW.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS FAIRLY MOIST BELOW INVERSION ON AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MONDAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WRN MN/IA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...HEADING TOWARD SRN IL BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING SOME
QPF/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT IT/S QUITE THE OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM...WHICH ALL LOOK FAIRLY DRY
CONSIDERING. MOISTURE WILL BE A CHALLENGE AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY
FOCUSED WEST OF MADISON. WILL BUMP POPS A NOTCH AS SOME LIGHT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS SLIPPING THROUGH. THE BEST
QPF SHOULD BE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE WEST AND SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD. NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO.
SOME WEAK ENERGY STILL ROLLING THROUGH ON THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT CAN/T JUSTIFY ANY POPS WITH IT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND HIGHS PUSH INTO THE MID 30S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS
IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. IT/S A
WAYS OFF...SO TIMING AND DETAILS ARE MURKY. THE LOW AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THIS POSITION...WE HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING INTO A SOLID WARM SECTOR THAT COULD PUSH
OUR HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 50S. SNOWPACK TO THE SOUTH IS A
CONCERN FOR THOSE WARM TEMPS...BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SO
STRONG...WE JUST MIGHT BE ABLE TO DO IT. IT WILL BE A GOOD
SNOWPACK EATER...THAT/S FOR SURE.  THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE/LL COOL DOWN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE FAST ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE AND COLD BRING ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE PIVOT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MADISON MAY SEE THIS ACTIVITY
MOVE OUT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A QUICK FLUFFY INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO 1/2 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RATES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT...A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AT
BEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES AT TAF
SITES. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF SNOW FALLING...NOT EXPECTING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND 1000 FEET OR SO BY
LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THEY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING CONTINUES. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL HELP GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS...WAVES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SOME FREEZING
SPRAY AS WELL INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS



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000
FXUS63 KARX 142106
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
306 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

WILL CANCEL THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES AS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. STRONGER
SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PATCHY
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS AND RIDGE TOPS.

14.21Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TODAY/S SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN IL. A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES TO ITS NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY SHORT-
WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WI
THIS EVENING...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY NEW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS SNOW. SOME BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CORRESPONDING LIFT IS WEAK TO
NON-EXISTENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING
UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY YET DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A 925 HPA 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY OF 6 TO 9
DEGREES CELSIUS...MONDAY/S HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH FROM ALBERTA. 14.15Z SREF SHOWS A
WIDE SPREAD IN 500 HPA HEIGHTS IN THE BASE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
BY 12Z TUESDAY...SUGGESTING THERE IS MODEST DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW
FAR SOUTH IT WILL DEEPEN. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 14.12Z MODEL SUITE
SHOWS THE STRONGEST 500 TO 300 HPA POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN MO AND WESTERN IL.
INTERESTINGLY...THE NAM STILL DEVELOPS A 1003 HPA SURFACE LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA AND THUS QUITE A BIT OF QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THEIR SURFACE LOW TRACKS AND PRECIPITATION. PREFER THE LATTER
SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY WPC. FOR NOW...THIS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL IA WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S REGION-WIDE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A BROAD 500 HPA
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION. AFTER
A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S WAVE (HIGHS
IN THE 20S)...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND THEN SOME BY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST PLACES. THURSDAY WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER WITH OCCASIONAL
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE +3 TO +7 CELSIUS RANGE. CURRENT CONSENSUS
FORECAST HIGHS ARE WELL INTO THE 40S TO EVEN 50 DEGREES IN SOME
PLACES...ALTHOUGH TRUE STRENGTH OF THE WARMING WILL DEPEND ON THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AS EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE WITH VERY
WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE
MATTERS...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF
THE 500 HPA RIDGE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW ALONG
THE SD/MN BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A MUCH BROADER
OPEN WAVE. THIS ALSO AFFECTS THE THERMAL PROFILE AND INTRODUCES
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS ARE REASONABLE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONE DICTATE RAIN OVER SNOW...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DETAILS EMERGE.

AFTER FRIDAY/S SYSTEM...NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS



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000
FXUS63 KGRB 142036
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW AMOUNTS AS A COMBINATION OF
SYNOPTIC SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FROM LAKE MI TO CONT INTO
TNGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER UPSTATE NY WITH
SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
GUSTY S-SE WINDS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER FEATURES WAS BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO WI AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WI. THERE WAS ALSO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ONGOING FROM LAKE MI...ALTHO THESE BANDS WERE WEAKER THAN EARLIER
IN THE DAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TNGT AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST ACROSS ALL
OF NE WI. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WL SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
ACCUMULATION...MAIN FOCUS WL BE ALONG THE LAKE MI COUNTIES AND SE
MARINETTE COUNTY AS S-SE WINDS ADDS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THAT WL COINCIDE WITH THE LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TROF. WL CONT TO RUN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR DOOR
CNTY...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH KEWAUNEE CNTY AS WELL. TEMPS TO NOT
NEARLY BE AS FRIGID AS LAST NGT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND.
LOOK FOR MINS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE N-CNTRL WI (25-35 DEGS
WARMER THAN LAST NGT)...15 TO 20 DEG RANGE E-CNTRL WI.

SNOW CHCS TO LINGER ACROSS ERN WI INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS...LIFT WEAKENS AND SFC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM
SOUTH TO SW (ENDING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT). NW FLOW WL PERSIST
ACROSS WI AND WITHOUT ANY HI PRES TO SUPPLY DRIER AIR...ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES THRU THE DAY. A MILDER START TO MON...COMBINED
WITH A SW WIND...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR MID-FEBRUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH THE LWR TO MID 20S
NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ON A ROLLER COASTER TREND DURING THIS
STRETCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE WESTERNS STATES UPPER RIDGE
MOVES INLAND AND FLATTENS THEN ATTEMPTS TO REESTABLISH AGAIN LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.  SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA OVERALL
MOISTURE STARVED WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

12Z NAM/GFS ALREADY LIFT THE H850 WEAK FGEN REGION AND SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MI/WI BORDER MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING OVER THE AREA IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN TERMS OF TRACKING..THIS CLIPPER LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CLIPPER DROPPING OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES A DAY EARLIER.
HOWEVER SNOW GROWTH REGION MUCH LESS WITH THE MODERATING BOUNDARY
TEMPERATURES.  AT THIS TIME THE BEST DYNAMICS AND ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PARTS OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD START
TUESDAY...WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ATTENTION TURNS
TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MID WEEK PROVIDING A
POTENTIAL OF CLEAR OR CLEARING SKIES EACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME SUB ZERO TEMPS AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A VERY MILD AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SUPPORTS A MIX CHANGEOVER TO
LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH BUT COULD BE TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPS RISE ABOVE LOWER 30S.

PRECIP MOSTLY EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD
AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK...PLACING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.
PROGS HAVE BEEN DIVERTING ON WHEN PATTERN CHANGES OCCURS STARTING
SUNDAY NEXT WEEKEND. BUT ONCE THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TEMP BOUNDARY REESTABLISHES...CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL BE BACK IN THE PICTURE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LGT SNOW WL OVERSPREAD MOST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VSBYS COULD DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
AT MTW...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONT
THRU MOST OF TNGT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
MON MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH
NORTH...1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 INCHES CLOSER TO
LAKE MI AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR DOOR COUNTY. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME
S-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW... THUS LOWERING VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 141958
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
158 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FAYETTE AND WINNESHIEK COUNTIES WESTWARD. SNOW HAD BECOME VERY LIGHT
OR TAPERED TO FLURRIES IN THESE AREAS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MINIMAL
ROAD/TRAVEL PROBLEMS REPORTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE SNOW HAD
DIMINISHED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ011-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 141911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
111 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE HEADLINE CODES BELOW. BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES
WEAKEN/DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WAS CROSSING THE MS RIVER. ALLOWED MN PORTION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELING THE IA/WI PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON
FCST PACKAGE AS WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND MUCH OF THE
REMAINING SNOW AFTER 3 OR 4 PM WILL BE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 141732
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1132 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS AND ACCUMULATIONS...
INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

DRY AIR WAS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC WI WERE IN THE -20 TO -25 F RANGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
THICKENING UP OVER SW WI...BUT LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST ARRIVING IN
SE MN/NE IA.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW IN THE FCST AREA A LITTLE
BIT...WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA
INCREASES. TIMESECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OCCURRING BLO
750 MB...AND ALSO A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
900-650 MB LAYER. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE EVENT IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND PARTICULARLY
OVER DOOR COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN S-SE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND MOVG ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
THE LAKE-ENHANCED BAND GETS MORE INTENSE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. QPF FCSTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE WRF-NMM EAST
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A FORECAST OF 0.40 TO 0.45 INCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SNOWFALL
TO WATER RATIOS OF NEARLY 20:1...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD APPROACH
4 OR 5 INCHES IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS FAR NE WI MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MODERATING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL YIELD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SEESAW OF TEMPERATURES...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
ECMWF/SREF THRU 00Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO A BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FLATTENED TROUGHING WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH...SO THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL
END OF THE VORT COULD CREATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS THOUGH.  THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELTS WHERE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE COOL OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME.  TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK WEDNESDAY EVENING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME LATE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.  WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.  THE LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY.  PRECIP MOSTLY
EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LGT SNOW WL OVERSPREAD MOST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO ALL TAF SITES AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VSBYS COULD DROP BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES
AT MTW...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONT
THRU MOST OF TNGT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
MON MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH
NORTH...1 TO 3 INCHES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 INCHES CLOSER TO
LAKE MI AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR DOOR COUNTY. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME
S-SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW... THUS LOWERING VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 141725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 141725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 141725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

BAND OF LIGHT/MDT SNOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW WAS OVER KLSE AT 17Z...WITH THE TRAILING EDGE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPROACHING THE KRST AREA. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
-SN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN PORTION OF
THE BAND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT -SN TO
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THIS EXPECT TO EXIT/END AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED IN/UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 925MB THEN LOOKS
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO MONDAY...THUS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS
WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS IN BR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU
LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 141713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...

A WELL DEFINED MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS FROM PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN IOWA ALSO
HELPING OUT. A QUICK INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR SO POSSIBLE.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THUS...THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
WITH THIS INITIAL BAND. WEAKER UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENDING WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A MODERATE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE A QUICK FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
BAND...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN
TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. RATES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT...A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR AT BEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES
AT TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF SNOW FALLING...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND
1000 FEET OR SO LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING CONTINUES. MAY SEE A FEW 35
KNOT GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES BUILDING
TO 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 141713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...

A WELL DEFINED MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS FROM PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN IOWA ALSO
HELPING OUT. A QUICK INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR SO POSSIBLE.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THUS...THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
WITH THIS INITIAL BAND. WEAKER UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENDING WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A MODERATE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE A QUICK FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
BAND...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN
TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. RATES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT...A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR AT BEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES
AT TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF SNOW FALLING...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND
1000 FEET OR SO LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING CONTINUES. MAY SEE A FEW 35
KNOT GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES BUILDING
TO 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 141713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...

A WELL DEFINED MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FIELDS FROM PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN IOWA ALSO
HELPING OUT. A QUICK INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR SO POSSIBLE.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THUS...THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
WITH THIS INITIAL BAND. WEAKER UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENDING WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A MODERATE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE A QUICK FLUFFY INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
BAND...ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND CEILINGS DOWN
TO 500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. RATES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT...A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR AT BEST. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES
AT TAF SITES. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF MILWAUKEE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT OUTSIDE OF SNOW FALLING...NOT
EXPECTING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW 2 MILES AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 2000 FEET...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND
1000 FEET OR SO LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH...THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL MIXING CONTINUES. MAY SEE A FEW 35
KNOT GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...VEERING SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WEAKENING BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES BUILDING
TO 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KGRB 141146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS AND ACCUMULATIONS...
INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

DRY AIR WAS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC WI WERE IN THE -20 TO -25 F RANGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
THICKENING UP OVER SW WI...BUT LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST ARRIVING IN
SE MN/NE IA.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW IN THE FCST AREA A LITTLE
BIT...WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA
INCREASES. TIMESECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OCCURRING BLO
750 MB...AND ALSO A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
900-650 MB LAYER. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE EVENT IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND PARTICULARLY
OVER DOOR COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN S-SE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND MOVG ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
THE LAKE-ENHANCED BAND GETS MORE INTENSE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. QPF FCSTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE WRF-NMM EAST
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A FORECAST OF 0.40 TO 0.45 INCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SNOWFALL
TO WATER RATIOS OF NEARLY 20:1...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD APPROACH
4 OR 5 INCHES IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS FAR NE WI SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MODERATING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL YIELD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SEESAW OF TEMPERATURES...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
ECMWF/SREF THRU 00Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO A BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FLATTENED TROUGHING WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH...SO THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL
END OF THE VORT COULD CREATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS THOUGH.  THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELTS WHERE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE COOL OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME.  TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK WEDNESDAY EVENING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME LATE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.  WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.  THE LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY.  PRECIP MOSTLY
EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MOST PLACES WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. VSBYS MAY BE EVEN LOWER ACROSS DOOR COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTENSIFIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 141146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS AND ACCUMULATIONS...
INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

DRY AIR WAS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC WI WERE IN THE -20 TO -25 F RANGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
THICKENING UP OVER SW WI...BUT LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST ARRIVING IN
SE MN/NE IA.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW IN THE FCST AREA A LITTLE
BIT...WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA
INCREASES. TIMESECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OCCURRING BLO
750 MB...AND ALSO A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
900-650 MB LAYER. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE EVENT IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND PARTICULARLY
OVER DOOR COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN S-SE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND MOVG ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
THE LAKE-ENHANCED BAND GETS MORE INTENSE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. QPF FCSTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE WRF-NMM EAST
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A FORECAST OF 0.40 TO 0.45 INCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SNOWFALL
TO WATER RATIOS OF NEARLY 20:1...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD APPROACH
4 OR 5 INCHES IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS FAR NE WI SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MODERATING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL YIELD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SEESAW OF TEMPERATURES...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
ECMWF/SREF THRU 00Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO A BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FLATTENED TROUGHING WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH...SO THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL
END OF THE VORT COULD CREATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS THOUGH.  THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELTS WHERE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE COOL OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME.  TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK WEDNESDAY EVENING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME LATE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.  WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.  THE LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY.  PRECIP MOSTLY
EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MOST PLACES WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. VSBYS MAY BE EVEN LOWER ACROSS DOOR COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTENSIFIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 141146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS AND ACCUMULATIONS...
INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

DRY AIR WAS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC WI WERE IN THE -20 TO -25 F RANGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
THICKENING UP OVER SW WI...BUT LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST ARRIVING IN
SE MN/NE IA.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW IN THE FCST AREA A LITTLE
BIT...WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA
INCREASES. TIMESECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OCCURRING BLO
750 MB...AND ALSO A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
900-650 MB LAYER. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE EVENT IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND PARTICULARLY
OVER DOOR COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN S-SE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND MOVG ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
THE LAKE-ENHANCED BAND GETS MORE INTENSE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. QPF FCSTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE WRF-NMM EAST
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A FORECAST OF 0.40 TO 0.45 INCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SNOWFALL
TO WATER RATIOS OF NEARLY 20:1...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD APPROACH
4 OR 5 INCHES IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS FAR NE WI SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MODERATING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL YIELD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SEESAW OF TEMPERATURES...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
ECMWF/SREF THRU 00Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO A BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FLATTENED TROUGHING WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH...SO THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL
END OF THE VORT COULD CREATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS THOUGH.  THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELTS WHERE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE COOL OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME.  TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK WEDNESDAY EVENING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME LATE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.  WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.  THE LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY.  PRECIP MOSTLY
EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN DETERIORATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MOST PLACES WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. VSBYS MAY BE EVEN LOWER ACROSS DOOR COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTENSIFIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KARX 141140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOK FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECTING KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR CATEGORY 13Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF AROUND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER IFR STRATUS SNEAKS INTO THE TAF SITE AFTER
06Z...LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

FOR KLSE...LOOK FOR 3-5SM -SN TO SPREAD INTO THE AIRPORT BY
14Z AND THEN PRETTY MUCH STAYING PUT THERE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGT SNOW TAPERING TO P6SM -SN FLURRIES AROUND 03Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 141140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOK FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECTING KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR CATEGORY 13Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF AROUND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER IFR STRATUS SNEAKS INTO THE TAF SITE AFTER
06Z...LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

FOR KLSE...LOOK FOR 3-5SM -SN TO SPREAD INTO THE AIRPORT BY
14Z AND THEN PRETTY MUCH STAYING PUT THERE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGT SNOW TAPERING TO P6SM -SN FLURRIES AROUND 03Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 141140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOK FOR SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECTING KRST TO SLIP INTO IFR CATEGORY 13Z. SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER
OFF AROUND 19Z THIS AFTERNOON...IMPROVING INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER IFR STRATUS SNEAKS INTO THE TAF SITE AFTER
06Z...LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

FOR KLSE...LOOK FOR 3-5SM -SN TO SPREAD INTO THE AIRPORT BY
14Z AND THEN PRETTY MUCH STAYING PUT THERE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGT SNOW TAPERING TO P6SM -SN FLURRIES AROUND 03Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 141049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
449 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NE WILL LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND DEAMPLIFY SOME
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. KEPT THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE SRN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 2-3 INCH SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SRN WI WITH AN INCH TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
HOWEVER...THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 16-17C WILL BRING LES TO ERN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE
COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCOUNTED FOR A
COUPLE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LES OVER FAR ERN SHEBOYGAN
CO. SNOW TOTALS THROUGH TNT WILL BE AROUND 3 INCHES THERE. VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NW. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DENDRITE
ZONE. WARM ADVECTION ON SLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY FOR TNT.


.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD SRN WI FROM SW
TO NE. KMSN SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF SNOW AROUND 16-17Z WITH THE
SE WI TAF SITES AROUND 19-20Z. CIGS WILL FALL DURING THIS TIME TO
1.0-3.0 KFT WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM. VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
TNT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT
FOR BRISK SSELY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 3 TO 5
FOOT WAVES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE IN ICE FREE
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE...THE ICE
COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND THE SLY FETCH IS ALSO LESS FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS. THE SLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE WAVES TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ063-069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KGRB 140954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW TRENDS AND ACCUMULATIONS...
INCLUDING LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

DRY AIR WAS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BLO ZERO. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
IN NC WI WERE IN THE -20 TO -25 F RANGE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
THICKENING UP OVER SW WI...BUT LIGHT SNOW WAS JUST ARRIVING IN
SE MN/NE IA.

HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW IN THE FCST AREA A LITTLE
BIT...WITH POPS REALLY RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVG AS A S/W TROF PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WAA
INCREASES. TIMESECTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LIFT OCCURRING BLO
750 MB...AND ALSO A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
900-650 MB LAYER. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
SE TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST
PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW. THE
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE EVENT IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AND PARTICULARLY
OVER DOOR COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN S-SE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...AND MOVG ONSHORE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z.
THE LAKE-ENHANCED BAND GETS MORE INTENSE TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. QPF FCSTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...WITH THE WRF-NMM EAST
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH A FORECAST OF 0.40 TO 0.45 INCHES
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS IS PROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.25 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE. WITH SNOWFALL
TO WATER RATIOS OF NEARLY 20:1...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD APPROACH
4 OR 5 INCHES IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
DOOR COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS FAR NE WI SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES ARRIVING IN NC WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER S/W TROF APPROACHES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A MODERATING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHICH WILL YIELD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SEESAW OF TEMPERATURES...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE
ECMWF/SREF THRU 00Z THU BEFORE TRENDING TO A BLEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FLATTENED TROUGHING WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE MORE
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE
SOUTH...SO THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.  COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY...AT THE SAME TIME AS
A SHARP NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL
END OF THE VORT COULD CREATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS THOUGH.  THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLEARING TREND FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE SNOW BELTS WHERE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE COOL OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME.  TEMPS HAVE POTENTIAL TO TANK WEDNESDAY EVENING
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN SOME LATE AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.  WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDER
GUIDANCE.  WARM ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP STARTING THURSDAY EVENING.  THE LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL
BE PULLED NORTH FOR A WINTRY MIX PRECIP TYPE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLY ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY.  PRECIP MOSTLY
EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED TNGT. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS LGT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. IN ERN WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WL PROBABLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE LAKESHORE BY
MID-LATE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KMKX 140930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ063-069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 140912
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MORE WINTER WEATHER FUN ON THE DAY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SITUATION ACTUALLY PLAYING OUT ABOUT AS EXPECTED (CAN`T ALWAYS SAY
THAT`S THE CASE)...WITH AN EARLIER LEAD FGEN BAND OF SNOW WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF BROADENING
SNOW IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. THAT
LATTER SNOW COMES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER WARM
ADVECTION ASCENT AHEAD OF QUITE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WORKING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THAT FEATURE WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH
THE REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY...LIKELY BECOMING MOST FOCUSED
IN INTENSITY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...TIED TO THE STRONGEST
ASCENT AND TIGHTER FGEN CIRCULATION LAID OUT ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING WILL TEND TO
MUTE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL...SUCH THAT NOT MUCH (IF ANY)
MAY FALL NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH NOON. STILL...AS THE UPPER WAVE
ITSELF TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWS OVERTAKE THOSE AREAS...WHILE
LINGERING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM...AND
LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INTO WISCONSIN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS THE LONGEST.

AS FOR ACCUMULATION...STILL LOOKING FOR A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA (A LITTLE LOWER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED)...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
AND DOWN TOWARD GRANT COUNTY WISCONSIN TIED TO THE STRONGEST BURST
OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT THROUGH MIDDAY. NOT HURTING THOSE AMOUNTS
WILL BE HIGHER RATIOS...WITH MODEST OMEGA PEGGED THROUGH A RATHER
DEEP DGZ. IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY SOME SPOTS MAY END UP FALLING SHORT OF
CRITERIA PER RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER TO
AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF I-94 BUT HERE AGAIN RATIOS MAY HELP US
WITH ACCUMULATION DESPITE LOWER ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. NOT SO
SURE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A BIG FACTOR GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS BUT
WITH THE "FLUFF FACTOR" TO THE SNOW AND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS...NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLOWING (MORE LIKE DRIFTING) SNOW
OVER THE OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

PASSAGE OF A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH MAY TRY TO LINGER SOME LIGHTER
SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
BENEATH A BUILDING INVERSION. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
LOOKS TO DIVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH WITH STILL A FEW
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. PER A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN DRIVING A BAND OF
PRECIP MORE THROUGH THE CWA...AND PREFER A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION
GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT IDEA SUGGESTS THE MORE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATION JUST CLIPPING AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63. AS
THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND PERHAPS SOME TEMPS DIPPING TOWARD THE
0 DEGREE MARK NORTH OF I-90 PENDING TIMING OF CLEARING AND WIND
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LOOKING LIKE A NICE BREAK IN THE ACTION TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY AS BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING RULES THE ROOST ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY SHOULD
DELIVER A PRETTY GOOD BATCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER THAT...STILL
QUITE A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS QUITE THE AIRMASS MODERATION GETS UNDERWAY
IN ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION ASCENT LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...HAVE TO BELIEVE WE ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LOWER
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS SOME VERY WARM AIR (AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...
HIGHER DEW POINTS) MAKE A RUN UP AND OVER THE DEEPER SNOW PACK.

COULD ULTIMATELY SEE SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SETUP
FOR A TIME...AND CAN`T RULE OUT A SMALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT
NORTHEAST AREAS GIVEN PRECEDING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FROZEN
GROUND. OTHERWISE...STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW WARM WE CAN GET ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SIGNALS WE MAY BREAK OUT INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTS TO MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES...THOUGH WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERED BY LOTS OF REMAINING QUESTIONS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER. LOOKING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WINDY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIP THREAT AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
HOLDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-
     061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 140538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 140538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 140538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 140538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 140538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
PLAN ON VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1-3 SM RANGE WITH CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 900 FT AT TIMES. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 13 TO 18 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS. THE SNOW AND PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW TAPERS OFF DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES IN AND WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-
     094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 140305
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
905 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WATCHING HOW TEMPS ARE REACTING OUT WEST...IT APPEARS WE WON/T GET
MUCH RECOVERY UNTIL MIDDLE CLDS ARRIVE. THE LEADING HIGH CLDS WL
PROBABLY ONLY PUT THE BRAKES ON THE FALL. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACRS
THE N HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO NEAR FCST MINS. WITH CONTD LGT WINDS
AND CLDS NOT MAKING IT INTO THAT AREA UNTIL LATE TNGT/TOWARD
MORNING...WL NEED TO LOWER MINS ACRS THE N. WL PROBABLY ALSO
ADJUST TEMP TRENDS IN CENTRAL WI TO HAVE MINS OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
NGT...WITH SOME REBOUND LATE.

NEW NAM NOW A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH SNOW POTENTIAL IN E-C WI
TOMORROW. WON/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PCPN AMNTS THIS EVENING...BUT
WL SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO CENTRAL WI A BIT.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT WITHIN 30 MINUTES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED TNGT. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS LGT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. IN ERN WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WL PROBABLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE LAKESHORE BY
MID-LATE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 140305
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
905 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WATCHING HOW TEMPS ARE REACTING OUT WEST...IT APPEARS WE WON/T GET
MUCH RECOVERY UNTIL MIDDLE CLDS ARRIVE. THE LEADING HIGH CLDS WL
PROBABLY ONLY PUT THE BRAKES ON THE FALL. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACRS
THE N HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO NEAR FCST MINS. WITH CONTD LGT WINDS
AND CLDS NOT MAKING IT INTO THAT AREA UNTIL LATE TNGT/TOWARD
MORNING...WL NEED TO LOWER MINS ACRS THE N. WL PROBABLY ALSO
ADJUST TEMP TRENDS IN CENTRAL WI TO HAVE MINS OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
NGT...WITH SOME REBOUND LATE.

NEW NAM NOW A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH SNOW POTENTIAL IN E-C WI
TOMORROW. WON/T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PCPN AMNTS THIS EVENING...BUT
WL SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN INTO CENTRAL WI A BIT.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT WITHIN 30 MINUTES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED TNGT. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW AS LGT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. IN ERN WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WL PROBABLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE LAKESHORE BY
MID-LATE MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KMKX 140300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE
FORECAST. SLOWED ARRIVAL OF SNOW A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR RH
ON THE INCREASE. SFC RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN WI SUNDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SATURATE RAPIDLY IN
A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH
THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR
LEVELS.

&&

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DID SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ZONES. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER
WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO
ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE
ACTION.

ALSO EXPECT SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY
SFC/925 FLOW NOTED IN THE PROGS. HOWEVER CONCERN LIES WITH HOW
HARD TEMPS CRASH HERE IN THE EVENING ESP WITH CLOUD DECK STILL A
WAYS OFF. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN MOST GUID SO WE
MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 700 RH DOES INCREASE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE. WAA
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE FAR SW CWA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH
LIGHT QPF.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COMBO OF WAA AND DCVA WITH APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE ACRS SRN
WI DURG THE MRNG HRS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
FROM THIS LINGERING ARCTIC AIRMASS SO SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL QPF
VALUES ARE TOO HIGH. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BEARED OUT WITH LOWER
SUPERBLEND QPF NUMBERS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A SMIDGE.
STILL THINK AREAS FROM KMSN TO LOCALES WEST AND SOUTH IS WHERE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS OF 3 INCH PLUS TOTALS...SO WILL MATCH WITH
ARX/DVN/LOT AND HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE 925/850 THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN. CONSENSUS OF
MOS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING AS A BROAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMA SWEEPING RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN THE 950-600 MB LAYER BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC OMEGA PROFILES LOOK
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE...INDICATING LIMITED LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMING THERMAL
PROFILE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE END OF THE SNOWFALL BY THE MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO S WI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND INTO IL. S WI COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS
EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GO...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE
13.12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING QPF ENTERING S WI BY 15Z TUE AND
EXITING BY 06Z WED. THE NAM PROGS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING
ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING THE
SFC LOW AT 18Z TUE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS BRINGING MORE QPF TO
S WI THAN THE GFS IS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 0.15" OF QPF.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS TO
HANDLE QPF.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

WED AND THURS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS MID LEVEL RIDGING COUPLED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP
ITS DISTANCE FROM S WI AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL IL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PART OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...MOST PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN DUE TO THE
ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
MORE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE QPF AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON COURSE FOR THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS S WI.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME BRINGS IN COOLER AIR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF NE
CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
SRN WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING
AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A
LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. VSBL
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESP ACROSS THE SRN TWO ZONES.
WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE
TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE ACTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KARX 140001
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO
FALL TO 1-2 SM IN SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 10Z AT KRST AND AFTER 11Z AT
KLSE. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 20Z...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 140001
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO
FALL TO 1-2 SM IN SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 10Z AT KRST AND AFTER 11Z AT
KLSE. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 20Z...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 140001
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO
FALL TO 1-2 SM IN SNOW...MAINLY AFTER 10Z AT KRST AND AFTER 11Z AT
KLSE. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 13 TO 16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO SUBSIDE
AFTER 20Z...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KGRB 132258
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
458 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW IN ERN
WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
BEGIN TO WORK INLAND. THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM WL GENERALLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 132258
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
458 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW IN ERN
WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
BEGIN TO WORK INLAND. THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM WL GENERALLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 132258
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
458 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS /VFR/ EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW IN ERN
WI...AS CLDS AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
BEGIN TO WORK INLAND. THE SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM WL GENERALLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KMKX 132124
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY
SFC/925 FLOW NOTED IN THE PROGS. HOWEVER CONCERN LIES WITH HOW
HARD TEMPS CRASH HERE IN THE EVENING ESP WITH CLOUD DECK STILL A
WAYS OFF. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN MOST GUID SO WE
MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 700 RH DOES INCREASE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE. WAA
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE FAR SW CWA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH
LIGHT QPF.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COMBO OF WAA AND DCVA WITH APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE ACRS SRN
WI DURG THE MRNG HRS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
FROM THIS LINGERING ARCTIC AIRMASS SO SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL QPF
VALUES ARE TOO HIGH. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BEARED OUT WITH LOWER
SUPERBLEND QPF NUMBERS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A SMIDGE.
STILL THINK AREAS FROM KMSN TO LOCALES WEST AND SOUTH IS WHERE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS OF 3 INCH PLUS TOTALS...SO WILL MATCH WITH
ARX/DVN/LOT AND HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE 925/850 THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN. CONSENSUS OF
MOS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING AS A BROAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMA SWEEPING RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN THE 950-600 MB LAYER BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC OMEGA PROFILES LOOK
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE...INDICATING LIMITED LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMING THERMAL
PROFILE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE END OF THE SNOWFALL BY THE MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO S WI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND INTO IL. S WI COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS
EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GO...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE
13.12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING QPF ENTERING S WI BY 15Z TUE AND
EXITING BY 06Z WED. THE NAM PROGS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING
ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING THE
SFC LOW AT 18Z TUE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS BRINGING MORE QPF TO
S WI THAN THE GFS IS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 0.15" OF QPF.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS TO
HANDLE QPF.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

WED AND THURS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS MID LEVEL RIDGING COUPLED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP
ITS DISTANCE FROM S WI AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL IL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PART OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...MOST PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN DUE TO THE
ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
MORE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE QPF AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON COURSE FOR THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS S WI.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME BRINGS IN COOLER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF NE
CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
SRN WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING
AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A
LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. VSBL
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESP ACROSS THE SRN TWO ZONES.
WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE
TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE ACTION.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KARX 132115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR KINL TO KRST
TO KSTL...DRIFTING STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALONG/EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WHILE MAINLY MID
CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
REGION. TEMPS CLIMBING OUT OF THE DEEP-FREEZE...WITH MOST MID-DAY
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 0F TO 15F ABOVE RANGE. A FEW WIND
CHILLS +5 TO -10 YET...BUT WINDS RATHER LIGHT IN/NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS. SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR LATER TONIGHT/SUN COULD BE SEEN IN
WV IMAGERY CROSSING THE ID/MT ROCKIES.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED ON 13.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ALL AGAIN
ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH ON SFC PRESSURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
MODELS OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MOVES TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN
THEN TO NEAR/EAST OF CHICAGO BY 00Z MON. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AND A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT
FOR THIS WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEARING LK MI BY 12Z MON. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVING
QUICKLY TO SOUTHWEST IA BY 12Z SUN...LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE ITSELF SPREADS QUICKLY
TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. INITIAL FORCING/LIFT WILL WORK TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. THIS WILL BE A BIG TASK AS KMPX/KGRB/KDVN
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.05 INCH PW IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN THAT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT WITH IT ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL...AND HAVE
SHIFTED THE SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH IT MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN TO EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH WEAKER LIFT NOW
PROGGED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...THE INITIAL DRY AIR TO WORK
AGAINST AND MUCH OF THE EARLIER/STRONGER LIFT WORKING TO SATURATE
THE COLUMN...HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW-WATER RATIOS REMAIN A
CONCERN...STRONGLY IMPACTING HOW MUCH SNOW IS LIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHEST RATIOS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THE LIFT OVERCOMES THE DRIER AIRMASS FOR A
LONGER TIME. NORTH/EAST OF I-94 SFC-850MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN
MAY STRUGGLE TO SATURATE...AND THESE LOCATIONS MAY WELL END UP
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW THRU SUN NIGHT. LEFT SNOW TOTALS OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA FOR
NOW...WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. 3 TO LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA...AND LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL ADD OLMSTED AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHERE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A
REASONABLE BET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THOSE
COUNTIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING 20-25MPH WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS OLMSTED AND WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES...TO BLOW/DRIFT
THE SNOW AROUND...MAKING FOR A LESS THAN PLEASANT TRAVEL DAY EVEN
IF ONLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FALL. THIS WIND ALSO ACROSS THE
REST OF THE OPEN COUNTRY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA.
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THRU MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

MAIN SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF SUN AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE LEAD
WAVE. SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING ACROSS MN KEEPS SOME WEAK LIFT AND
ENHANCED SFC-500MB CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA THRU MUCH OF SUN
NIGHT. CONTINUED -SN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU SUN
NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST/NORTH AND HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING. MAIN
SNOWFALL NORTHEAST OF I-94 LIKELY TO BE FROM THIS FORCING SUN
NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU
SUN NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING...WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEXT STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO PASS WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE.

13.12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH IMPROVING AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT BUNDLE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING
MONDAY...AND FOR THE BULK OF THIS TO PASS WELL SOUTH/WEST OF THE
FCST AREA. BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST
THRU THIS FLOW MON NIGHT/TUE...CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA THAN THE
MONDAY ENERGY. AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START
RISING TUE NIGHT AS STRONGER TROUGHING APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
STARTS TO PUSH THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING EASTWARD. FCST CONFIDENCE
AVERAGE TO GOOD THRU THIS PERIOD.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION MON WITH 925-700MB
WARM ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM SUN NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 32F ON
MON IF WE CAN MIX THAT DEEP. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
IN/UNDER AND INVERSION NEAR 925MB MAY WELL TEMPER THE WARMUP ON
MON...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS. 13.12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER BY 12Z TUE THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z WED. 13.18Z NAM
SHIFTS THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
NORTH/EAST MON NIGHT/TUE. 13.12Z CONSENSUS WOULD TRACK THE MAIN
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z TUE...CLOSE ENOUGH THAT SOME OF IT AND DEEPER
SATURATION MAY PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN THE 13.18Z NAM TREND AND POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHEAST
SHIFT OF THIS WAVE...CONSENSUS 20-30 PERCENT -SN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
OKAY FOR NOW. TUE NIGHT WOULD HAVE WEAK BUT COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE HGTS ALOFT THAT ARE STARTING
TO RISE...FOR WHAT WOULD BE A DRY PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...
SMALL MAINLY -RA CHANCES CENTERED ON FRI.

13.00Z/13.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WED...THEN
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU AS STRONGER PAC ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING TO THEN MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY FRI...
QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT FOR SAT. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY FRI/SAT WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVING QUITE A
BIT TO BE DESIRED BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
WED/THU THEN BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM IS SET TO SPREAD
COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WED. DRY
WED WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD TREND. FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PROGGED TO RETURN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
WARM WELL ABOVE 0C ON THU. THESE WARM TEMPS ALOFT TO THEN REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU FRI AS THE STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING
WOULD SWING THRU THE REGION. QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU THE REGION. PRESENT CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATER SATURATION AND
STRONGER FORCING/LIFT SIGNALS NORTH OF OR OVER THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES/PASSES. THE CONSENSUS 20-30
PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES /HIGHEST NORTH/ THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT OKAY
FOR NOW. WITH WHAT WOULD BE 850MB TEMPS WELL ABOVE 0C AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AT LEAST IN THE 30S...MUCH OF THESE CHANCES WOULD BE
-RA. WITH THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SAT...AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD
SIDE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS VS. CANADA.
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU SAT...TRENDING
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU/FRI...REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MOSTLY SUNNY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST UNTIL
14.09Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW AT 14.11Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. WORSENING CONDITIONS AT KLSE WILL BE A FEW HOURS BEHIND
KRST...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT
04.11Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CEILINGS BY 14.15Z.
VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER FORECASTS TO
ADDRESS THIS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS INTO THE
MID 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094>096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 132019
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE IMPENDING LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NGT.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES STRETCHED
FROM WRN ONTARIO SEWD THRU WRN WI TO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A VERY
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER ERN UPR MI WITH A TROF
EXTENDED WWD TOWARD IWD. FARTHER WEST...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRES
AREAS WERE LOCATED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM
SATKATCHWAN TO NE NM. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO PUSH
BACK AT THE ARCTIC CHILL OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES.

THE SFC RDG AXIS WL PUSH ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND ALREADY BE
APPROACHING THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE A
PERIOD OF CALM OR NEARLY CALM WINDS THRU MUCH OF THE NGT OVER NE
WI...THUS TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO OVER PARTS OF NRN WI...TO AROUND
ZERO ACROSS DOOR CNTY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVY TNGT DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT WINDS. NONETHELESS...ANYONE
GOING OUT TNGT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT.

WEAK LOW PRES IS FCST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NRN HI PLAINS AND
MOVE SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A MODEST WRMFNT SITUATED OVER
THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE
DEALT WITH. FOR STARTERS...THE AIR MASS OVER NE WI IS INITIALLY
VERY DRY WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WE WOULD NOT SATURATE
COMPLETELY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDLY...THE BETTER ISEN LIFT
WL STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...PERHAPS BRUSHING SRN SECTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA. THIRD...THE S-SE WINDS COULD BRING A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LASTLY...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...
SO IF ENUF LIFT AND SATURATION CAN BE REALIZED...THIS COULD ADD TO
A HIGHER SNOW TOTAL. CURRENT THINKING IS TO HAVE A SNOW
ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS NORTH AND E-CNTRL...
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH CNTRL AND LAKESHORE BY 00Z MON. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR TEENS NORTH AND
CNTRL...LWR 20S E-CNTRL WI AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK...A FEW SWINGS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FIRST FORECAST ISSUE CENTERS ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL HOLD OFF PCPN
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME SATURATION
OCCURS. SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY TRACKS OVER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE...EVENTUALLY A DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION DEVELOPS SO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW COULD PLAY A ROLE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS TURN MORE S/SE FOR A DURATION SUNDAY
NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC NOT DEEP WITH
850 WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH UPPER HEIGHT INCREASES...TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THEN TREND DOWN TOWARD WEDNESDAY
DUE TO A PASSING CLIPPER SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS...AND A MILD TREND IS ON THE WAY. PROGS SUGGESTS H850
TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +10 BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN.
THE WARM ADVECTION AND PCPN CHANCE WILL PRODUCE TYPE ISSUES LATER
IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF BRIEFLY ENDS THE WARMING TREND SUNDAY
WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS GOING FORECAST TEMPS
WILL PUT A BIG DENT IN THE SNOW COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
HI PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS LATE TNGT AND MID CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A WRMFNT
STRETCHED ACROSS IA/IL. INCREASING ISEN LIFT IS FCST TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WL MAINLY PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...BUT
STILL BRING SOME LGT SNOW TO NE WI. CIGS/VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE LGT SNOW BEGINS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 131740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. MANY LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP AROUND 5F WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WHILE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 MPH OR CALM. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM
WERE ALREADY MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -20 RANGE...WITH A AIR FEW TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 0F. THUS EXPIRING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 9 AM
WAS WELL TIMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MOSTLY SUNNY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST UNTIL
14.09Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW AT 14.11Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. WORSENING CONDITIONS AT KLSE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
BEHIND KRST...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT
04.11Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CEILINGS BY 14.15Z.
VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
FORECASTS TO ADDRESS THIS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY
GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 131740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. MANY LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP AROUND 5F WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WHILE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 MPH OR CALM. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM
WERE ALREADY MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -20 RANGE...WITH A AIR FEW TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 0F. THUS EXPIRING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 9 AM
WAS WELL TIMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MOSTLY SUNNY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST UNTIL
14.09Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW AT 14.11Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. WORSENING CONDITIONS AT KLSE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
BEHIND KRST...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT
04.11Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CEILINGS BY 14.15Z.
VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
FORECASTS TO ADDRESS THIS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY
GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 131740
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. MANY LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP AROUND 5F WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WHILE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 MPH OR CALM. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM
WERE ALREADY MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -20 RANGE...WITH A AIR FEW TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 0F. THUS EXPIRING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 9 AM
WAS WELL TIMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MOSTLY SUNNY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWER
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. DELAYED THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CEILINGS AT KRST UNTIL
14.09Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW AT 14.11Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. WORSENING CONDITIONS AT KLSE WILL BE A FEW HOURS
BEHIND KRST...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AT
04.11Z...DROPPING TO IFR VISIBILITY/MVFR CEILINGS BY 14.15Z.
VISIBILITY COULD DROP BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
FORECASTS TO ADDRESS THIS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY
GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 131723
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
HI PRES MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HI CLOUDS LATE TNGT AND MID CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ALONG A WRMFNT
STRETCHED ACROSS IA/IL. INCREASING ISEN LIFT IS FCST TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WL MAINLY PASS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...BUT
STILL BRING SOME LGT SNOW TO NE WI. CIGS/VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE LGT SNOW BEGINS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 131521 AAA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. MANY LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP AROUND 5F WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WHILE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 MPH OR CALM. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM
WERE ALREADY MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -20 RANGE...WITH A AIR FEW TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 0F. THUS EXPIRING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 9 AM
WAS WELL TIMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING AT SNOW DEVELOPING AT KRST
AROUND 07Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WENT WITH 3SM -SN AT
KRST IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME AND 5SM -SN AT KLSE IN THE 11-12Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 3KFT IN THE RESPECTIVE TIME
FRAMES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 131521 AAA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED TO LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY EXPIRE. MANY LOW TEMPS
ENDED UP AROUND 5F WARMER THAN EXPECTED...WHILE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 MPH OR CALM. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM
WERE ALREADY MOSTLY IN THE 0 TO -20 RANGE...WITH A AIR FEW TEMPS
ALREADY AROUND 0F. THUS EXPIRING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AT 9 AM
WAS WELL TIMED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING AT SNOW DEVELOPING AT KRST
AROUND 07Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WENT WITH 3SM -SN AT
KRST IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME AND 5SM -SN AT KLSE IN THE 11-12Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 3KFT IN THE RESPECTIVE TIME
FRAMES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RRS
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM....LAWRENCE
AVIATION.....DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 131139
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING AT SNOW DEVELOPING AT KRST
AROUND 07Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WENT WITH 3SM -SN AT
KRST IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME AND 5SM -SN AT KLSE IN THE 11-12Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 3KFT IN THE RESPECTIVE TIME
FRAMES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 131139
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING AT SNOW DEVELOPING AT KRST
AROUND 07Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WENT WITH 3SM -SN AT
KRST IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME AND 5SM -SN AT KLSE IN THE 11-12Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 3KFT IN THE RESPECTIVE TIME
FRAMES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 131139
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOOKING AT SNOW DEVELOPING AT KRST
AROUND 07Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 11Z. WITH HEAVIEST AXIS OF SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE WEST/SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...WENT WITH 3SM -SN AT
KRST IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME AND 5SM -SN AT KLSE IN THE 11-12Z
TIME FRAME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 3KFT IN THE RESPECTIVE TIME
FRAMES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 131116
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
516 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL END ACROSS
VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 131116
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
516 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL END ACROSS
VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 131116
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
516 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL END ACROSS
VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130949
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KGRB 130921
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD DRY ARCTIC AIR WL CONT TO SURGE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CLDS NOW LIMITED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 130921
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VILAS COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAD NOT FALLEN QUITE AS
FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND WINDS WERE LIGHT IN SOME AREAS...
WIND CHILLS WERE STILL MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT A DOZEN
OBSERVATION SITES...AND WERE CLOSE AT SEVERAL OTHERS. WILL LET
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RUN UNTIL THE PLANNED EXPIRATION TIME
AT 9 AM.

EXPECT REMAINING LAKE-EFFECT TO END THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR AT 850 MB PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY
EDGES EAST. MIN TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...WITH A COLD START...
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING VERY COLD TEMPS.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCOMING MILDER AIR AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE. THE RECENT BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS WERE FORECASTING MUCH MILDER READINGS
THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST...BUT AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL
FACTORS...ONLY DECIDED TO EDGE MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE BIT MOST
PLACES.

ON SUNDAY...WAA AND AN APPROACHING S/W TROF WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW A LITTLE
BIT...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT ARRIVING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME ACCUMS SHOULD RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A HALF
INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...TO AN INCH
OR INCH AND A HALF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. SOME LAKE-EFFECT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SE WINDS...BUT DETAILS
ARE SKETCHY RIGHT NOW. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S...WARMEST ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.  IN GENERAL...THEY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL.  BESIDES TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE
AROUND SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
TAKE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DISJOINTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH LOW MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...FORCING IS
MODEST AND MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA DUE
TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION.  WILL SIDE WITH THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.  THIS WOULD GIVE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTH
TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE BEFORE THE SNOW PULLS OUT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S RANGE ON
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW...BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN.  AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE A MIX OF SOME TYPE AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTH.  LOW PRESSURE IS THEN IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BY THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD DRY ARCTIC AIR WL CONT TO SURGE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CLDS NOW LIMITED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KARX 130913
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

QUITE THE CHILLY LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURES RISING TOWARD
THE 1040MB MARK AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TAKING A TUMBLE BELOW THE ZERO
MARK IN MANY SPOTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH
JUST A SLIGHT COUPLE HOUR DELAY TO THE APPROACH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WITH REMNANT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT TIMES HELPING DROP WIND
CHILL READINGS DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25F RANGE. GIVEN TRENDS AND
EXPECTED LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING...STILL DO SEE A WINDOW
FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS TO TAKE A TUMBLE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...
BUT WITH ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AT TIMES TO MAINTAIN THE GOING ADVISORY
AS READINGS IN MANY SPOTS EITHER COME REALLY CLOSE TO OR EXCEED
CRITERIA.

OUTSIDE OF THAT...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SAVE FOR SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES AND HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD OUR NEXT INCOMING UPPER WAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...CURRENTLY JUST COMING ASHORE INTO
WASHINGTON STATE. THAT FEATURE WILL NUDGE A SURFACE/ELEVATED WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH IOWA INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...
WITH A NICE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT DRIVING TOP
DOWN SATURATION FROM THE WEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THAT SETUP...HAVE NO
TROUBLES ENVISIONING A BAND OF SNOW WORKING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MODEST PRECIP RATES GIVEN
SOME IMPRESSIVE 40-50 KNOTS OF UPGLIDE FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE TROUBLE STEMS FROM JUST HOW MUCH INITIAL DRY AIR RESIDES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES...AS
THERE LOOKS TO BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CUTOFF TO HEAVIER
PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENT. GIVEN THAT SETUP AND THE FACT THAT
FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...REALLY HAVE TO WONDER JUST HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. MEANWHILE...GIVEN STRONGER
FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE SOME DECENT RATIOS WITH A QUITE DEEP DGZ
BISECTED BY MODEST OMEGA...WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS (SAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE CENTER MN TO BOSCOBEL WI) HAVE A DECENT
SHOT AT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT IN MIND
AND WITH COORDINATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO FIRE
OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THOUGH HONESTLY BIGGER IMPACTS MAY
BE MITIGATED BY THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AND EXPECTED LIGHTER/
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AMOUNTS
SHOULD TAPER QUICKLY BUT EVEN NORTH OF I-94 DO ULTIMATELY ANTICIPATE
SOME LIGHTER SNOWS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOOKING LIKE A MILDER TREND IS IN THE WORKS HEADING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BUT WE FIRST HAVE TO GET THROUGH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
SAID SYSTEMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN DESIRED...A TREND DOES
APPEAR TO BE ARISING AMONG GUIDANCE THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL
END UP TO OUR WEST...FOCUSED WHERE YOU`D EXPECT THEM ALONG THE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT LAID OUT WHERE IS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH IOWA. NOT ENTIRELY READY TO
STRIP POPS COMPLETELY BUT THAT MAY BE THE WAY TO HEAD OVER COMING
DAYS. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE CAN MUSTER
IN A WARMER PATTERN AS MUCH OF THE WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIALLY GO
INTO SOME SORT OF CLOUD PRODUCTION...BUT EVEN IN THE FACE OF THAT...
AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS DOES APPEAR IN THE WORKS...ESPECIALLY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE RETURN OF WESTERN TROUGHING HELPS BUMP RIDGING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS THE PAST
FEW DAYS THAT FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING QUITE WARM AS LOW PRESSURE
SLIPS NORTH OF THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR...BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR THOSE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OR
JUST AS LIKELY...FOR THOSE DETAILS TO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-061.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ086-094-095.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 130538
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT...COLD TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
TOWARD SOUTHERN QUE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
LK WINNIPEG WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO KS/OK. BRISK NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS SPREADING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...MID-DAY TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MN...TO
AROUND 20 ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR/BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...ALL AGAIN
INITIALIZED SFC PRESSURES ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/SAT AS THE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST AND HGTS OVER THE REGION RISE A BIT...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO WY/MT BY 00Z SUN. TREND
FAVORS FASTER AND STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AT
00Z SUN. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER/STRONGER TREND CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS
THE WAVE/TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN IA/MN BY 12Z SUN. SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY SAT NIGHT BUT FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD
THRU THE SHORT-TERM.

IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE BY 12Z
SAT. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIRRED AND LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE IN THIS
COLD AIRMASS. MOST LOWS TONIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -10F
TO -20F RANGE...BUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE FAVORED LOW LAYING
LOCATIONS...THE -20F TO -30F LOWS WOULD BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
WIND CHILLS ALREADY LOOKING TO BE -5 TO -20 AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WITH THE 00Z START TIME FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REASONABLE.
WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z...THEN LOOK TO RECOVER RATHER
QUICKLY SAT MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS SAT AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MID FEB SUNSHINE...IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS COLD AS IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. 925MB TEMPS SAT
AFTERNOON ONLY RECOVER TO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. IF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES THAT DEEP...THESE TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
5 TO 15 ABOVE...BUT THE MID FEB SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW IT TO FEEL WARMER THAN THAT.

HIGH SLIPS QUICKLY EAST SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD QUICKLY EAST TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA...
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHTER
CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MS RIVER THRU
12Z...AND LOWERED SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING/RAISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR 2
OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND MAY YET NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MORE ON THAT BELOW. CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS SAT NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE EVENING...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO
SUN NIGHT...WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/TROUGH
AXIS TO PASS SUNDAY. TREND IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS MN/IA/WI MONDAY. DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AND
MAGNIFY ON THE NEXT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT. GIVEN SOME
DETAIL CONCERNS ALREADY SUNDAY FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THE
SUN THRU MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE MON NIGHT.

STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. STRONGER OF THE PV ADVECTION/
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVERALL DEEPEST/STRONGEST
LIFT...NOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA SUN. MAIN PRECIP BAND...AND HEAVIER OF THE SNOWFALL...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. CONTINUED WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SUN MORNING...TRENDING DOWN TO 60-80 PERCENT SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN WAVE WOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL. QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODELS YET ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP FALLS FROM LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...SOME WITH 2 TO
3 TIMES AS MUCH QPF AS OTHERS. ALSO QUITE A SPREAD ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TO WATER...SOME OF THESE AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE COLUMN TO BE QUITE COLD WITH THE -15C LEVEL
BELOW 700MB WITH A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 925-600MB.
FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-600MB LESS THAN 2C/KM...THIS LAYER
WILL BE RESISTANT TO UPWARD FORCING/LIFTING. BULK OF LIFT IS PROGGED
ABOVE 850MB WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. INITIALLY A
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TO OVERCOME AS WELL...WHICH MAY
STRUGGLE TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. BY
THE TIME DEEPER SATURATION WOULD OCCUR...MUCH OF THE LIFT WOULD BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. ALL THIS POINTS TO SNOW-
WATER RATIOS MUCH LESS THAN 20 OR 25 TO 1. USED SNOW-WATER RATIOS OF
15 TO 17 TO 1 FOR NOW...WHICH STILL PRODUCES 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH IN SNOW AMOUNTS YET AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING IN FOR SUN NIGHT/MON KEEPS DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO MON. LINGERING -SN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON
REASONABLE. GFS/ECMWF WITH EITHER A STRONGER OR FASTER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH MON NIGHT ALREADY SPREADS INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATER MON
NIGHT. DUE TO THE RATHER DRASTIC LOOKING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
FEATURE MON NIGHT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THE SMALL -SN CHANCE OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA OKAY FOR NOW. WITH ROUNDS OF LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY MON APPEAR REASONABLE. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES TUE...SMALL -SN/-RA
CHANCES THU INTO FRI...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY THU/FRI.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 12.00Z/12.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM TUE. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LONGWAVE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM /TROUGHING EAST/RIDGING WEST/
CONTINUES WED...AS DO THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SIGNAL
CONTINUES FOR THE FLOW TO BE PROGRESSIVE THU WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING
TO BE PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL NOAM AS STRONGER ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. BY FRI...CONSIDERABLE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST SOME OF THE WESTERN NOAM ENERGY WOULD
MOVE EAST...GFS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME OF IT WHILE ECMWF
HAS IT OVER AZ/SOUTHERN CA/NV. FOR THE MOST PART...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WITH
ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU IT. GFS WOULD BRING A STRONGER
ONE OF THESE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WHILE CAN-GEM BRINGS ONE ACROSS
WED. COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP AS -SN THESE PERIODS...
AND SMALL CONSENSUS -SN CHANCE TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. THU WOULD TREND TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS SIGNALING STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING AND THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS WOULD THEN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
COLUMN ALOFT WOULD BE WARMING...WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
THU/THU NIGHT AS -RA/-SN AND MAINLY -RA ON FRI. WITH PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE BY THU/FRI...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES DAYS 6/7. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI LOOKING GOOD FOR NOW. BUT...AS
MID CREW STATED...THE STRONG WARM-UP PROGGED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK MAY END UP MUTED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND ITS FASTER
WESTERN ENERGY THRU THE FLOW ENDS UP MORE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 130217
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
817 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

DON/T PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS
EVENING. WCI VALUES EDGING DOWN IN ERN WI...AND STARTING TO GET
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS TYPICAL OF THESE SITUATIONS...WE/LL
HAVE SITES MEETING CRITERIA AT TIMES AND EASING BACK AT
OTHERS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT WINDS AND TEMPS. OVERALL...MIDNIGHT
START TIME FOR ERN WI SEEMS CLOSE ENOUGH.

VERY DRY AIR WITH SFC DWPTS ARND -20F NOW ARRIVING OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CLDS/SHSN CONTS TO SHRINK. EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND A STEADY 10 MPH WIND WILL CREATE WINDS
CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW IN
VILAS COUNTY.

SATURDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO IT MAY NOT FEEL AS
COLD AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TANK. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS TREND
AND WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT SHOW THE SYSTEM SNOW WILL ARRIVE A
LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE TO 850MB TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES OF 16C TO
19C NOTED TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MAIN QUESTION WILL
THERE BE AN ORGANIZED LAKE BAND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WOULD MOVE
NORTH AND CLIP AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS SCENARIO. MAIN SYSTEM SNOW WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT
OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN). TOTALS MAY BE
A BIT HIGHER IN THIS REGION.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MILD CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD DRY ARCTIC AIR WL CONT TO SURGE ACRS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING CLDS NOW LIMITED TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THAT TO CONT OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ012-013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-
018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 122357
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT...COLD TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
TOWARD SOUTHERN QUE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
LK WINNIPEG WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO KS/OK. BRISK NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS SPREADING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...MID-DAY TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MN...TO
AROUND 20 ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR/BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...ALL AGAIN
INITIALIZED SFC PRESSURES ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/SAT AS THE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST AND HGTS OVER THE REGION RISE A BIT...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO WY/MT BY 00Z SUN. TREND
FAVORS FASTER AND STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AT
00Z SUN. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER/STRONGER TREND CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS
THE WAVE/TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN IA/MN BY 12Z SUN. SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY SAT NIGHT BUT FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD
THRU THE SHORT-TERM.

IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE BY 12Z
SAT. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIRRED AND LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE IN THIS
COLD AIRMASS. MOST LOWS TONIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -10F
TO -20F RANGE...BUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE FAVORED LOW LAYING
LOCATIONS...THE -20F TO -30F LOWS WOULD BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
WIND CHILLS ALREADY LOOKING TO BE -5 TO -20 AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WITH THE 00Z START TIME FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REASONABLE.
WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z...THEN LOOK TO RECOVER RATHER
QUICKLY SAT MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS SAT AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MID FEB SUNSHINE...IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS COLD AS IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. 925MB TEMPS SAT
AFTERNOON ONLY RECOVER TO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. IF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES THAT DEEP...THESE TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
5 TO 15 ABOVE...BUT THE MID FEB SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW IT TO FEEL WARMER THAN THAT.

HIGH SLIPS QUICKLY EAST SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD QUICKLY EAST TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA...
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHTER
CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MS RIVER THRU
12Z...AND LOWERED SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING/RAISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR 2
OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND MAY YET NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MORE ON THAT BELOW. CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS SAT NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE EVENING...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO
SUN NIGHT...WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/TROUGH
AXIS TO PASS SUNDAY. TREND IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS MN/IA/WI MONDAY. DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AND
MAGNIFY ON THE NEXT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT. GIVEN SOME
DETAIL CONCERNS ALREADY SUNDAY FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THE
SUN THRU MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE MON NIGHT.

STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. STRONGER OF THE PV ADVECTION/
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVERALL DEEPEST/STRONGEST
LIFT...NOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA SUN. MAIN PRECIP BAND...AND HEAVIER OF THE SNOWFALL...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. CONTINUED WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SUN MORNING...TRENDING DOWN TO 60-80 PERCENT SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN WAVE WOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL. QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODELS YET ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP FALLS FROM LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...SOME WITH 2 TO
3 TIMES AS MUCH QPF AS OTHERS. ALSO QUITE A SPREAD ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TO WATER...SOME OF THESE AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE COLUMN TO BE QUITE COLD WITH THE -15C LEVEL
BELOW 700MB WITH A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 925-600MB.
FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-600MB LESS THAN 2C/KM...THIS LAYER
WILL BE RESISTANT TO UPWARD FORCING/LIFTING. BULK OF LIFT IS PROGGED
ABOVE 850MB WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. INITIALLY A
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TO OVERCOME AS WELL...WHICH MAY
STRUGGLE TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. BY
THE TIME DEEPER SATURATION WOULD OCCUR...MUCH OF THE LIFT WOULD BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. ALL THIS POINTS TO SNOW-
WATER RATIOS MUCH LESS THAN 20 OR 25 TO 1. USED SNOW-WATER RATIOS OF
15 TO 17 TO 1 FOR NOW...WHICH STILL PRODUCES 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH IN SNOW AMOUNTS YET AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING IN FOR SUN NIGHT/MON KEEPS DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO MON. LINGERING -SN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON
REASONABLE. GFS/ECMWF WITH EITHER A STRONGER OR FASTER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH MON NIGHT ALREADY SPREADS INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATER MON
NIGHT. DUE TO THE RATHER DRASTIC LOOKING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
FEATURE MON NIGHT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THE SMALL -SN CHANCE OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA OKAY FOR NOW. WITH ROUNDS OF LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY MON APPEAR REASONABLE. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES TUE...SMALL -SN/-RA
CHANCES THU INTO FRI...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY THU/FRI.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 12.00Z/12.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM TUE. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LONGWAVE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM /TROUGHING EAST/RIDGING WEST/
CONTINUES WED...AS DO THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SIGNAL
CONTINUES FOR THE FLOW TO BE PROGRESSIVE THU WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING
TO BE PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL NOAM AS STRONGER ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. BY FRI...CONSIDERABLE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST SOME OF THE WESTERN NOAM ENERGY WOULD
MOVE EAST...GFS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME OF IT WHILE ECMWF
HAS IT OVER AZ/SOUTHERN CA/NV. FOR THE MOST PART...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WITH
ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU IT. GFS WOULD BRING A STRONGER
ONE OF THESE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WHILE CAN-GEM BRINGS ONE ACROSS
WED. COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP AS -SN THESE PERIODS...
AND SMALL CONSENSUS -SN CHANCE TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. THU WOULD TREND TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS SIGNALING STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING AND THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS WOULD THEN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
COLUMN ALOFT WOULD BE WARMING...WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
THU/THU NIGHT AS -RA/-SN AND MAINLY -RA ON FRI. WITH PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE BY THU/FRI...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES DAYS 6/7. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI LOOKING GOOD FOR NOW. BUT...AS
MID CREW STATED...THE STRONG WARM-UP PROGGED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK MAY END UP MUTED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND ITS FASTER
WESTERN ENERGY THRU THE FLOW ENDS UP MORE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO SPILL INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE WEST WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 15KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 122357
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT...COLD TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
TOWARD SOUTHERN QUE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
LK WINNIPEG WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO KS/OK. BRISK NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS SPREADING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...MID-DAY TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MN...TO
AROUND 20 ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR/BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...ALL AGAIN
INITIALIZED SFC PRESSURES ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/SAT AS THE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST AND HGTS OVER THE REGION RISE A BIT...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO WY/MT BY 00Z SUN. TREND
FAVORS FASTER AND STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AT
00Z SUN. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER/STRONGER TREND CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS
THE WAVE/TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN IA/MN BY 12Z SUN. SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY SAT NIGHT BUT FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD
THRU THE SHORT-TERM.

IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE BY 12Z
SAT. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIRRED AND LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE IN THIS
COLD AIRMASS. MOST LOWS TONIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -10F
TO -20F RANGE...BUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE FAVORED LOW LAYING
LOCATIONS...THE -20F TO -30F LOWS WOULD BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
WIND CHILLS ALREADY LOOKING TO BE -5 TO -20 AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WITH THE 00Z START TIME FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REASONABLE.
WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z...THEN LOOK TO RECOVER RATHER
QUICKLY SAT MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS SAT AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MID FEB SUNSHINE...IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS COLD AS IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. 925MB TEMPS SAT
AFTERNOON ONLY RECOVER TO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. IF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES THAT DEEP...THESE TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
5 TO 15 ABOVE...BUT THE MID FEB SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW IT TO FEEL WARMER THAN THAT.

HIGH SLIPS QUICKLY EAST SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD QUICKLY EAST TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA...
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHTER
CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MS RIVER THRU
12Z...AND LOWERED SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING/RAISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR 2
OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND MAY YET NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MORE ON THAT BELOW. CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS SAT NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE EVENING...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO
SUN NIGHT...WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/TROUGH
AXIS TO PASS SUNDAY. TREND IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS MN/IA/WI MONDAY. DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AND
MAGNIFY ON THE NEXT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT. GIVEN SOME
DETAIL CONCERNS ALREADY SUNDAY FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THE
SUN THRU MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE MON NIGHT.

STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. STRONGER OF THE PV ADVECTION/
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVERALL DEEPEST/STRONGEST
LIFT...NOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA SUN. MAIN PRECIP BAND...AND HEAVIER OF THE SNOWFALL...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. CONTINUED WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SUN MORNING...TRENDING DOWN TO 60-80 PERCENT SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN WAVE WOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL. QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODELS YET ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP FALLS FROM LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...SOME WITH 2 TO
3 TIMES AS MUCH QPF AS OTHERS. ALSO QUITE A SPREAD ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TO WATER...SOME OF THESE AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE COLUMN TO BE QUITE COLD WITH THE -15C LEVEL
BELOW 700MB WITH A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 925-600MB.
FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-600MB LESS THAN 2C/KM...THIS LAYER
WILL BE RESISTANT TO UPWARD FORCING/LIFTING. BULK OF LIFT IS PROGGED
ABOVE 850MB WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. INITIALLY A
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TO OVERCOME AS WELL...WHICH MAY
STRUGGLE TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. BY
THE TIME DEEPER SATURATION WOULD OCCUR...MUCH OF THE LIFT WOULD BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. ALL THIS POINTS TO SNOW-
WATER RATIOS MUCH LESS THAN 20 OR 25 TO 1. USED SNOW-WATER RATIOS OF
15 TO 17 TO 1 FOR NOW...WHICH STILL PRODUCES 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH IN SNOW AMOUNTS YET AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING IN FOR SUN NIGHT/MON KEEPS DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO MON. LINGERING -SN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON
REASONABLE. GFS/ECMWF WITH EITHER A STRONGER OR FASTER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH MON NIGHT ALREADY SPREADS INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATER MON
NIGHT. DUE TO THE RATHER DRASTIC LOOKING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
FEATURE MON NIGHT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THE SMALL -SN CHANCE OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA OKAY FOR NOW. WITH ROUNDS OF LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY MON APPEAR REASONABLE. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES TUE...SMALL -SN/-RA
CHANCES THU INTO FRI...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY THU/FRI.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 12.00Z/12.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM TUE. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LONGWAVE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM /TROUGHING EAST/RIDGING WEST/
CONTINUES WED...AS DO THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SIGNAL
CONTINUES FOR THE FLOW TO BE PROGRESSIVE THU WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING
TO BE PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL NOAM AS STRONGER ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. BY FRI...CONSIDERABLE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST SOME OF THE WESTERN NOAM ENERGY WOULD
MOVE EAST...GFS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME OF IT WHILE ECMWF
HAS IT OVER AZ/SOUTHERN CA/NV. FOR THE MOST PART...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WITH
ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU IT. GFS WOULD BRING A STRONGER
ONE OF THESE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WHILE CAN-GEM BRINGS ONE ACROSS
WED. COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP AS -SN THESE PERIODS...
AND SMALL CONSENSUS -SN CHANCE TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. THU WOULD TREND TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS SIGNALING STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING AND THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS WOULD THEN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
COLUMN ALOFT WOULD BE WARMING...WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
THU/THU NIGHT AS -RA/-SN AND MAINLY -RA ON FRI. WITH PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE BY THU/FRI...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES DAYS 6/7. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI LOOKING GOOD FOR NOW. BUT...AS
MID CREW STATED...THE STRONG WARM-UP PROGGED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK MAY END UP MUTED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND ITS FASTER
WESTERN ENERGY THRU THE FLOW ENDS UP MORE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO SPILL INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE WEST WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 15KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 122357
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT...COLD TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
TOWARD SOUTHERN QUE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
LK WINNIPEG WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO KS/OK. BRISK NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO WAS SPREADING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS
CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE
SUNSHINE...MID-DAY TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN MN...TO
AROUND 20 ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. WIND CHILLS ALREADY NEAR/BELOW ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...ALL AGAIN
INITIALIZED SFC PRESSURES ABOUT 2MB TOO HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/SAT AS THE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST AND HGTS OVER THE REGION RISE A BIT...
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO WY/MT BY 00Z SUN. TREND
FAVORS FASTER AND STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE AT
00Z SUN. THIS SLIGHTLY FASTER/STRONGER TREND CONTINUE SAT NIGHT AS
THE WAVE/TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN IA/MN BY 12Z SUN. SOME DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY SAT NIGHT BUT FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS GOOD
THRU THE SHORT-TERM.

IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -23C RANGE BY 12Z
SAT. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE LATER TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STIRRED AND LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE IN THIS
COLD AIRMASS. MOST LOWS TONIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE -10F
TO -20F RANGE...BUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE FAVORED LOW LAYING
LOCATIONS...THE -20F TO -30F LOWS WOULD BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
WIND CHILLS ALREADY LOOKING TO BE -5 TO -20 AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WITH THE 00Z START TIME FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REASONABLE.
WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 12Z...THEN LOOK TO RECOVER RATHER
QUICKLY SAT MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR ZERO BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS SAT AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MID FEB SUNSHINE...IT
WILL NOT FEEL AS COLD AS IT ACTUALLY WILL BE. 925MB TEMPS SAT
AFTERNOON ONLY RECOVER TO THE -14C TO -18C RANGE. IF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES THAT DEEP...THESE TEMPS ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE
5 TO 15 ABOVE...BUT THE MID FEB SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW IT TO FEEL WARMER THAN THAT.

HIGH SLIPS QUICKLY EAST SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SPREAD QUICKLY EAST TOWARD/INTO THE FCST AREA...
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHTER
CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THIS REMAINING WEST OF THE MS RIVER THRU
12Z...AND LOWERED SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING/RAISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR 2
OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY...AND MAY YET NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MORE ON THAT BELOW. CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT THEN FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS SAT NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS TO BE
IN THE EVENING...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
CLOUDS THICKEN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO
SUN NIGHT...WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

MODEL RUNS OF 12.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN SHORTWAVE/TROUGH
AXIS TO PASS SUNDAY. TREND IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE AS IT PASSES SUNDAY. IMPROVING AGREEMENT FOR A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS MN/IA/WI MONDAY. DIFFERENCES START TO CROP UP AND
MAGNIFY ON THE NEXT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT. GIVEN SOME
DETAIL CONCERNS ALREADY SUNDAY FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR THE
SUN THRU MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE MON NIGHT.

STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING IS SLATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN MORNING. STRONGER OF THE PV ADVECTION/
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVERALL DEEPEST/STRONGEST
LIFT...NOW PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA SUN. MAIN PRECIP BAND...AND HEAVIER OF THE SNOWFALL...WITH THIS
WAVE NOW LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. CONTINUED WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT SNOW CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA SUN MORNING...TRENDING DOWN TO 60-80 PERCENT SUN AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN WAVE WOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL. QUITE A SPREAD AMONG MODELS YET ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP FALLS FROM LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...SOME WITH 2 TO
3 TIMES AS MUCH QPF AS OTHERS. ALSO QUITE A SPREAD ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TO WATER...SOME OF THESE AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE COLUMN TO BE QUITE COLD WITH THE -15C LEVEL
BELOW 700MB WITH A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 925-600MB.
FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL NOT ALL THAT STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-600MB LESS THAN 2C/KM...THIS LAYER
WILL BE RESISTANT TO UPWARD FORCING/LIFTING. BULK OF LIFT IS PROGGED
ABOVE 850MB WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. INITIALLY A
VERY DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS TO OVERCOME AS WELL...WHICH MAY
STRUGGLE TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. BY
THE TIME DEEPER SATURATION WOULD OCCUR...MUCH OF THE LIFT WOULD BE
ON ITS WAY OUT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. ALL THIS POINTS TO SNOW-
WATER RATIOS MUCH LESS THAN 20 OR 25 TO 1. USED SNOW-WATER RATIOS OF
15 TO 17 TO 1 FOR NOW...WHICH STILL PRODUCES 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH IN SNOW AMOUNTS YET AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POSSIBLE SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING IN FOR SUN NIGHT/MON KEEPS DEEPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO MON. LINGERING -SN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA MON
REASONABLE. GFS/ECMWF WITH EITHER A STRONGER OR FASTER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO THE TROUGH MON NIGHT ALREADY SPREADS INCREASING
LIFT/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA BY LATER MON
NIGHT. DUE TO THE RATHER DRASTIC LOOKING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
FEATURE MON NIGHT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THE SMALL -SN CHANCE OVER THE
WEST END OF THE FCST AREA OKAY FOR NOW. WITH ROUNDS OF LOWER LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING PUSHED EAST OF THE
REGION...TEMPS TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL BY MON APPEAR REASONABLE. USED
A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-SN CHANCES TUE...SMALL -SN/-RA
CHANCES THU INTO FRI...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL BY THU/FRI.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 12.00Z/12.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NOAM TUE. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LONGWAVE FEATURES ACROSS NOAM /TROUGHING EAST/RIDGING WEST/
CONTINUES WED...AS DO THE SHORTWAVE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. SIGNAL
CONTINUES FOR THE FLOW TO BE PROGRESSIVE THU WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING
TO BE PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL NOAM AS STRONGER ENERGY MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. BY FRI...CONSIDERABLE BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST SOME OF THE WESTERN NOAM ENERGY WOULD
MOVE EAST...GFS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME OF IT WHILE ECMWF
HAS IT OVER AZ/SOUTHERN CA/NV. FOR THE MOST PART...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE TUE-FRI PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WITH
ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU IT. GFS WOULD BRING A STRONGER
ONE OF THESE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WHILE CAN-GEM BRINGS ONE ACROSS
WED. COLUMN REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP AS -SN THESE PERIODS...
AND SMALL CONSENSUS -SN CHANCE TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS
SORT THEMSELVES OUT. THU WOULD TREND TO BE A DRY DAY UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS SIGNALING STRONGER LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTHEAST UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGING AND THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAY PULL SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE GFS WOULD THEN BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION FRI.
COLUMN ALOFT WOULD BE WARMING...WITH ANY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
THU/THU NIGHT AS -RA/-SN AND MAINLY -RA ON FRI. WITH PLENTY OF
DETAIL DIFFERENCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE BY THU/FRI...STAYED WITH THE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PRECIP CHANCES DAYS 6/7. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI LOOKING GOOD FOR NOW. BUT...AS
MID CREW STATED...THE STRONG WARM-UP PROGGED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK MAY END UP MUTED...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND ITS FASTER
WESTERN ENERGY THRU THE FLOW ENDS UP MORE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO SPILL INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE WEST WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 15KFT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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