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000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 272304
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS
THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM
WY INTO SD/NEB. STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW/TROUGH WAS FOCUSED INTO EASTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ON THE INCREASE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MN AS OF 18Z...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WAS WANING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING EAST...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW SPREADING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WAS
AROUND 5F TOO LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS LOW. PER WV IMAGERY...NAM/GFS/CAN-GEM APPEARED TO STRONG
WITH A SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED OVER NORTHEAST CO. EVEN WITH SOME
SMALLER DIFFERENCES AT THE START...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MERGES AND DEVELOPS
A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI. TREND AT 12Z FRI
IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. TREND FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS LOW THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGER QUESTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT IS
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO RAIN AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALL.
LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH STRONGER LIFT/DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND BETWEEN PARTIALLY COUPLED
250-300MB JET MAXES. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT ALONG...WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND MDT/STRONG 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF THIS HIGHER PW AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA...SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA CENTERED ON FRI. MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER
OVERALL 500MB LOW/TROUGH AND THE STRONGER CO/SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD...NOW MORE OVER SOUTH 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA A BIT TONIGHT.
LOWERED/SLOWED RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THEN RAISED THEM TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FASTER OPENING
UP OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT EAST...TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN MORE
QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MUCAPE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI. ANY TSRA TONIGHT/FRI LOOK TO HAVE
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER/ DEEP FORCING/LIFT. APPEARS MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD SHIELD/BAND OF RAIN/SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSRA. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TONIGHT/ FRI/FRI
NIGHT TO ISOLATED. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. A COOL DAY FRI WITH RAIN/THICK CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN WI SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MODEL THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS AND
STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLY
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BY SUN/SUN
NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FASTER OPENING/MOVEMENT EAST OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS THE DEEPER
FORCING/LIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT MORNING. LIMITED
MOST OF THE LINGERING SHRA CHANCES WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE
12-15Z PERIOD SAT MORNING. DID LINGER A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE OVER
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. THIS DUE TO THE STRONGER
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WI SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXITS QUICKLY SAT EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN
NIGHT. MAY YET NEED SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MENTION CENTERED ON 12Z SUN AND MON. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW
AND LET THOSE POTENTIAL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE
SYSTEM FOR FRI IS BY THE REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW FOR SAT...WITH WEAK/NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS
FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 16C-20C RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE RISING
HGTS/WARMING ALOFT...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS TO WARM IN PLACE
SUN...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 OT 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND HOW WARM WILL IT
GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 27.00Z/27.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MON. GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR HE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS A
REX-TYPE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NOAM. WITH DECENT AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THE RIDGING ALOFT/REX-BLOCK PATTERN WOULD LOOK TO SET THE FCST AREA
UP FOR A WARM/DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS CLOSE TO
THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGING FOR TUE-THU. PERSISTENT TROUGHING ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS WILL SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE OF THESE WAVES SPREADING A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM
TUE ONWARD. ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN ANY OF THE NIGHTS...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
LEAVE MON-THU MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 24C-28C RANGE
FOR THE MON-TUE PERIOD...1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MON-THU CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A VERY WARM PERIOD WITH TEMPS OF
10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS MON-THU
A BIT OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CURRENTLY A WEAKLY FORCED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. MINIMAL IF AN IMPACT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING AND THUS PCPN LOOKS TO MOVE IN AFTER 12Z...MORE FAVORED
AROUND 18Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ON TIMING OF THE
MAIN PCPN AREAS /AND SOUTH/...BUT LATEST HOPWRF SUGGESTING FASTER.
GOING TO STICK WITH CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST...BUT WORK LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...BUT
STRONG FORCING COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN WITH THE
RAIN. NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 1 UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS FALLING ACROSS A LANDSCAPE WHERE MOST OF THE CROPS/
VEGETATION ARE IN NEED OF A GOOD DRINK OF WATER. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.7 INCH RANGE WHILE 6HR
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.8 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
MOST RAIN RATES LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH/HR
RANGE...PERHAPS UP TO 3/4 INCH/HR WITH ANY TSRA. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MODERATE RAIN
RATES...MOST OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SHOULD TO
SOAK INTO THE SOIL WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 272304
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS
THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM
WY INTO SD/NEB. STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW/TROUGH WAS FOCUSED INTO EASTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ON THE INCREASE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MN AS OF 18Z...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WAS WANING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING EAST...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW SPREADING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WAS
AROUND 5F TOO LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS LOW. PER WV IMAGERY...NAM/GFS/CAN-GEM APPEARED TO STRONG
WITH A SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED OVER NORTHEAST CO. EVEN WITH SOME
SMALLER DIFFERENCES AT THE START...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MERGES AND DEVELOPS
A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI. TREND AT 12Z FRI
IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. TREND FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS LOW THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGER QUESTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT IS
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO RAIN AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALL.
LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH STRONGER LIFT/DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND BETWEEN PARTIALLY COUPLED
250-300MB JET MAXES. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT ALONG...WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND MDT/STRONG 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF THIS HIGHER PW AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA...SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA CENTERED ON FRI. MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER
OVERALL 500MB LOW/TROUGH AND THE STRONGER CO/SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD...NOW MORE OVER SOUTH 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA A BIT TONIGHT.
LOWERED/SLOWED RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THEN RAISED THEM TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FASTER OPENING
UP OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT EAST...TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN MORE
QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MUCAPE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI. ANY TSRA TONIGHT/FRI LOOK TO HAVE
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER/ DEEP FORCING/LIFT. APPEARS MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD SHIELD/BAND OF RAIN/SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSRA. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TONIGHT/ FRI/FRI
NIGHT TO ISOLATED. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. A COOL DAY FRI WITH RAIN/THICK CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN WI SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MODEL THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS AND
STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLY
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BY SUN/SUN
NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FASTER OPENING/MOVEMENT EAST OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS THE DEEPER
FORCING/LIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT MORNING. LIMITED
MOST OF THE LINGERING SHRA CHANCES WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE
12-15Z PERIOD SAT MORNING. DID LINGER A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE OVER
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. THIS DUE TO THE STRONGER
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WI SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXITS QUICKLY SAT EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN
NIGHT. MAY YET NEED SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MENTION CENTERED ON 12Z SUN AND MON. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW
AND LET THOSE POTENTIAL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE
SYSTEM FOR FRI IS BY THE REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW FOR SAT...WITH WEAK/NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS
FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 16C-20C RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE RISING
HGTS/WARMING ALOFT...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS TO WARM IN PLACE
SUN...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 OT 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND HOW WARM WILL IT
GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 27.00Z/27.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MON. GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR HE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS A
REX-TYPE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NOAM. WITH DECENT AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THE RIDGING ALOFT/REX-BLOCK PATTERN WOULD LOOK TO SET THE FCST AREA
UP FOR A WARM/DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS CLOSE TO
THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGING FOR TUE-THU. PERSISTENT TROUGHING ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS WILL SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE OF THESE WAVES SPREADING A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM
TUE ONWARD. ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN ANY OF THE NIGHTS...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
LEAVE MON-THU MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 24C-28C RANGE
FOR THE MON-TUE PERIOD...1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MON-THU CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A VERY WARM PERIOD WITH TEMPS OF
10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS MON-THU
A BIT OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING WHAT SHOULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND
ACCOMPANYING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. CURRENTLY A WEAKLY FORCED
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHEAST MN. MINIMAL IF AN IMPACT. THE BULK OF THE
FORCING AND THUS PCPN LOOKS TO MOVE IN AFTER 12Z...MORE FAVORED
AROUND 18Z. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ON TIMING OF THE
MAIN PCPN AREAS /AND SOUTH/...BUT LATEST HOPWRF SUGGESTING FASTER.
GOING TO STICK WITH CURRENT TIMING IN THE FORECAST...BUT WORK LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...BUT
STRONG FORCING COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN WITH THE
RAIN. NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST THOUGH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 1 UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS FALLING ACROSS A LANDSCAPE WHERE MOST OF THE CROPS/
VEGETATION ARE IN NEED OF A GOOD DRINK OF WATER. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.7 INCH RANGE WHILE 6HR
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.8 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
MOST RAIN RATES LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH/HR
RANGE...PERHAPS UP TO 3/4 INCH/HR WITH ANY TSRA. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MODERATE RAIN
RATES...MOST OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SHOULD TO
SOAK INTO THE SOIL WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....RRS


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 272252
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

LGT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TNGT...THOUGH HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS WL BE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FM THE W. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALSO ALLOWED
FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...SO TEMP/DWPT SPREADS WERE CONSIDERABLE.
AS A RESULT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE AS LAST NGT.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN TIMING WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WL BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z TAF PKG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 272252
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

LGT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TNGT...THOUGH HIGH AND MIDDLE CLDS WL BE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FM THE W. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALSO ALLOWED
FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING...SO TEMP/DWPT SPREADS WERE CONSIDERABLE.
AS A RESULT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG OF AN ISSUE AS LAST NGT.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN TIMING WITH THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WL BE NEEDED FOR THE 00Z TAF PKG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 272028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 272028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 272028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 272028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING RAIN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING IT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST MODEL QPF WAS MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ARE LIKELY TO GET MORE THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL NOT BE VERY TIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING A PROBLEM AND
KEEP LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE THREE
BEST PERFORMING MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST ISSUES.

MODELS ARE OFFERING A COUPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...WITH THE DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL PHASING
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND A S/W TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND GEM SHOWED
LITTLE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND A QUICKER EXIT OF THE
PCPN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF
INDICATED SOME PHASING AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST...AND KEPT THE
FOCUS ON HIGHEST POPS/QPF OVER C/EC WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW`S AROUND 1.5
INCHES) AND DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...A BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES A BIT...AND JUST MENTIONED ISOLD WORDING...AS INSTABILITY
IS WEAK.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING A SMALL
CHC OF TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...BUT
EVEN THAT IS DOUBTFUL ATTM. H8 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE +18 TO +22 C
RANGE DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KARX 271953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS
THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM
WY INTO SD/NEB. STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW/TROUGH WAS FOCUSED INTO EASTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ON THE INCREASE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MN AS OF 18Z...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WAS WANING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING EAST...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW SPREADING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WAS
AROUND 5F TOO LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS LOW. PER WV IMAGERY...NAM/GFS/CAN-GEM APPEARED TO STRONG
WITH A SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED OVER NORTHEAST CO. EVEN WITH SOME
SMALLER DIFFERENCES AT THE START...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MERGES AND DEVELOPS
A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI. TREND AT 12Z FRI
IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. TREND FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS LOW THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGER QUESTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT IS
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO RAIN AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALL.
LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH STRONGER LIFT/DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND BETWEEN PARTIALLY COUPLED
250-300MB JET MAXES. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT ALONG...WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND MDT/STRONG 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF THIS HIGHER PW AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA...SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA CENTERED ON FRI. MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER
OVERALL 500MB LOW/TROUGH AND THE STRONGER CO/SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD...NOW MORE OVER SOUTH 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA A BIT TONIGHT.
LOWERED/SLOWED RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THEN RAISED THEM TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FASTER OPENING
UP OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT EAST...TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN MORE
QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MUCAPE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI. ANY TSRA TONIGHT/FRI LOOK TO HAVE
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER/ DEEP FORCING/LIFT. APPEARS MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD SHIELD/BAND OF RAIN/SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSRA. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TONIGHT/ FRI/FRI
NIGHT TO ISOLATED. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. A COOL DAY FRI WITH RAIN/THICK CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN WI SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MODEL THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS AND
STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLY
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BY SUN/SUN
NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FASTER OPENING/MOVEMENT EAST OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS THE DEEPER
FORCING/LIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT MORNING. LIMITED
MOST OF THE LINGERING SHRA CHANCES WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE
12-15Z PERIOD SAT MORNING. DID LINGER A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE OVER
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. THIS DUE TO THE STRONGER
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WI SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXITS QUICKLY SAT EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN
NIGHT. MAY YET NEED SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MENTION CENTERED ON 12Z SUN AND MON. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW
AND LET THOSE POTENTIAL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE
SYSTEM FOR FRI IS BY THE REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW FOR SAT...WITH WEAK/NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS
FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 16C-20C RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE RISING
HGTS/WARMING ALOFT...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS TO WARM IN PLACE
SUN...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 OT 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND HOW WARM WILL IT
GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 27.00Z/27.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MON. GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR HE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS A
REX-TYPE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NOAM. WITH DECENT AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THE RIDGING ALOFT/REX-BLOCK PATTERN WOULD LOOK TO SET THE FCST AREA
UP FOR A WARM/DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS CLOSE TO
THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGING FOR TUE-THU. PERSISTENT TROUGHING ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS WILL SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE OF THESE WAVES SPREADING A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM
TUE ONWARD. ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN ANY OF THE NIGHTS...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
LEAVE MON-THU MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 24C-28C RANGE
FOR THE MON-TUE PERIOD...1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MON-THU CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A VERY WARM PERIOD WITH TEMPS OF
10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS MON-THU
A BIT OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW
A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z
FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS
THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
AND WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 1 UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS FALLING ACROSS A LANDSCAPE WHERE MOST OF THE CROPS/
VEGETATION ARE IN NEED OF A GOOD DRINK OF WATER. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.7 INCH RANGE WHILE 6HR
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.8 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
MOST RAIN RATES LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH/HR
RANGE...PERHAPS UP TO 3/4 INCH/HR WITH ANY TSRA. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MODERATE RAIN
RATES...MOST OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SHOULD TO
SOAK INTO THE SOIL WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 271953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS
THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM
WY INTO SD/NEB. STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW/TROUGH WAS FOCUSED INTO EASTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ON THE INCREASE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MN AS OF 18Z...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WAS WANING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING EAST...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW SPREADING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WAS
AROUND 5F TOO LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS LOW. PER WV IMAGERY...NAM/GFS/CAN-GEM APPEARED TO STRONG
WITH A SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED OVER NORTHEAST CO. EVEN WITH SOME
SMALLER DIFFERENCES AT THE START...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MERGES AND DEVELOPS
A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI. TREND AT 12Z FRI
IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. TREND FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS LOW THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGER QUESTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT IS
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO RAIN AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALL.
LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH STRONGER LIFT/DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND BETWEEN PARTIALLY COUPLED
250-300MB JET MAXES. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT ALONG...WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND MDT/STRONG 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF THIS HIGHER PW AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA...SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA CENTERED ON FRI. MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER
OVERALL 500MB LOW/TROUGH AND THE STRONGER CO/SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD...NOW MORE OVER SOUTH 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA A BIT TONIGHT.
LOWERED/SLOWED RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THEN RAISED THEM TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FASTER OPENING
UP OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT EAST...TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN MORE
QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MUCAPE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI. ANY TSRA TONIGHT/FRI LOOK TO HAVE
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER/ DEEP FORCING/LIFT. APPEARS MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD SHIELD/BAND OF RAIN/SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSRA. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TONIGHT/ FRI/FRI
NIGHT TO ISOLATED. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. A COOL DAY FRI WITH RAIN/THICK CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN WI SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MODEL THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS AND
STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLY
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BY SUN/SUN
NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FASTER OPENING/MOVEMENT EAST OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS THE DEEPER
FORCING/LIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT MORNING. LIMITED
MOST OF THE LINGERING SHRA CHANCES WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE
12-15Z PERIOD SAT MORNING. DID LINGER A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE OVER
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. THIS DUE TO THE STRONGER
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WI SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXITS QUICKLY SAT EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN
NIGHT. MAY YET NEED SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MENTION CENTERED ON 12Z SUN AND MON. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW
AND LET THOSE POTENTIAL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE
SYSTEM FOR FRI IS BY THE REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW FOR SAT...WITH WEAK/NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS
FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 16C-20C RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE RISING
HGTS/WARMING ALOFT...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS TO WARM IN PLACE
SUN...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 OT 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND HOW WARM WILL IT
GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 27.00Z/27.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MON. GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR HE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS A
REX-TYPE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NOAM. WITH DECENT AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THE RIDGING ALOFT/REX-BLOCK PATTERN WOULD LOOK TO SET THE FCST AREA
UP FOR A WARM/DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS CLOSE TO
THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGING FOR TUE-THU. PERSISTENT TROUGHING ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS WILL SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE OF THESE WAVES SPREADING A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM
TUE ONWARD. ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN ANY OF THE NIGHTS...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
LEAVE MON-THU MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 24C-28C RANGE
FOR THE MON-TUE PERIOD...1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MON-THU CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A VERY WARM PERIOD WITH TEMPS OF
10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS MON-THU
A BIT OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW
A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z
FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS
THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
AND WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 1 UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS FALLING ACROSS A LANDSCAPE WHERE MOST OF THE CROPS/
VEGETATION ARE IN NEED OF A GOOD DRINK OF WATER. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.7 INCH RANGE WHILE 6HR
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.8 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
MOST RAIN RATES LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH/HR
RANGE...PERHAPS UP TO 3/4 INCH/HR WITH ANY TSRA. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MODERATE RAIN
RATES...MOST OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SHOULD TO
SOAK INTO THE SOIL WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 271953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS
THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM
WY INTO SD/NEB. STRONGER OF THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW/TROUGH WAS FOCUSED INTO EASTERN
SD/SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA ON THE INCREASE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MN AS OF 18Z...WHILE PRECIP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION WAS WANING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING EAST...BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC-850MB FLOW SPREADING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION.

NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 27.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WAS
AROUND 5F TOO LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
THE PLAINS LOW. PER WV IMAGERY...NAM/GFS/CAN-GEM APPEARED TO STRONG
WITH A SHORTWAVE INITIALIZED OVER NORTHEAST CO. EVEN WITH SOME
SMALLER DIFFERENCES AT THE START...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A
TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MERGES AND DEVELOPS
A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z FRI. TREND AT 12Z FRI
IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. TREND FRI FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS LOW THEN OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BIGGER QUESTION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT IS
HOW MUCH IS IT GOING TO RAIN AND WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALL.
LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WITH STRONGER LIFT/DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND BETWEEN PARTIALLY COUPLED
250-300MB JET MAXES. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT ALONG...WITH PW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE AND MDT/STRONG 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF THIS HIGHER PW AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA...SPREADS ACROSS THE FCST AREA CENTERED ON FRI. MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A BAND OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE TREND TOWARD A WEAKER
OVERALL 500MB LOW/TROUGH AND THE STRONGER CO/SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SOUTHWARD...NOW MORE OVER SOUTH 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM
ALSO DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA A BIT TONIGHT.
LOWERED/SLOWED RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
THEN RAISED THEM TOWARD 100 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE
STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FASTER OPENING
UP OF THE TROUGH AND EXIT EAST...TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN MORE
QUICKLY FRI NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MUCAPE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT/FRI. ANY TSRA TONIGHT/FRI LOOK TO HAVE
TO BE DRIVEN BY THE STRONGER/ DEEP FORCING/LIFT. APPEARS MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL COME ACROSS THE AREA AS A BROAD SHIELD/BAND OF RAIN/SHRA
WITH EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSRA. LIMITED TSRA MENTION TONIGHT/ FRI/FRI
NIGHT TO ISOLATED. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. A COOL DAY FRI WITH RAIN/THICK CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING SHRA CHANCES SAT
MORNING...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

27.12Z MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN WI SAT AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. MODEL THEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS AND
STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TREND FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLY
RUNS ON THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGING ALOFT BY SUN/SUN
NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FASTER OPENING/MOVEMENT EAST OF THE 500MB TROUGH HAS THE DEEPER
FORCING/LIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT MORNING. LIMITED
MOST OF THE LINGERING SHRA CHANCES WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE
12-15Z PERIOD SAT MORNING. DID LINGER A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE OVER
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WHICH
BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. THIS DUE TO THE STRONGER
SECONDARY/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WI SAT
AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS EXITS QUICKLY SAT EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THRU SUN
NIGHT. MAY YET NEED SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG
MENTION CENTERED ON 12Z SUN AND MON. WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW
AND LET THOSE POTENTIAL DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE
SYSTEM FOR FRI IS BY THE REGION. WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE LOW FOR SAT...WITH WEAK/NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTIONS
FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 16C-20C RANGE SAT
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WITH THE RISING
HGTS/WARMING ALOFT...LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS TO WARM IN PLACE
SUN...WITH 925MB TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT/SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUNDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND THE RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 OT 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND HOW WARM WILL IT
GET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 27.00Z/27.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MON. GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR HE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS A
REX-TYPE BLOCKY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NOAM. WITH DECENT AND
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THE RIDGING ALOFT/REX-BLOCK PATTERN WOULD LOOK TO SET THE FCST AREA
UP FOR A WARM/DRY PERIOD NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS CLOSE TO
THE PERIMETER OF THE RIDGING FOR TUE-THU. PERSISTENT TROUGHING ON
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS WILL SEND SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER ONE OF THESE WAVES SPREADING A
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM
TUE ONWARD. ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN ANY OF THE NIGHTS...WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATING PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
LEAVE MON-THU MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RAISES 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 24C-28C RANGE
FOR THE MON-TUE PERIOD...1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MON-THU CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A VERY WARM PERIOD WITH TEMPS OF
10F TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHS. RAISED HIGHS MON-THU
A BIT OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE LOWS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST AND
INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/
MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW
A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z
FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS
THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER. EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY. THE INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
AND WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 1 UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT. THIS FALLING ACROSS A LANDSCAPE WHERE MOST OF THE CROPS/
VEGETATION ARE IN NEED OF A GOOD DRINK OF WATER. ONE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.7 INCH RANGE WHILE 6HR
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE IN THE 2.8 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA.
MOST RAIN RATES LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH/HR
RANGE...PERHAPS UP TO 3/4 INCH/HR WITH ANY TSRA. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAINLY MODERATE RAIN
RATES...MOST OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT SHOULD TO
SOAK INTO THE SOIL WITH MINIMAL RUNOFF EXPECTED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
HYDROLOGY....RRS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271742
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THE
DAY...THOUGH BASES OF SOME OF THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE AROUND
3000FT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STARTING AT 12Z IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SPREADING EAST AND NORTH DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 271710
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A
UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM
AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF
A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS
FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO
MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND
WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 271710
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A
UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM
AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF
A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS
FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO
MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND
WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 271710
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A
UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM
AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF
A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS
FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO
MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND
WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KMKX 271548 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S IN LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
WILL BECOME OVERCAST FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH-CENTRAL.
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRIDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 271548 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S IN LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
WILL BECOME OVERCAST FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH-CENTRAL.
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRIDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 271141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND THE KLSE AIRFIELD IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE AIRFIELDS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE
LOWERED TO AT LEAST MVFR FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD
IFR IN SHRA/RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 271141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND THE KLSE AIRFIELD IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE AIRFIELDS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE
LOWERED TO AT LEAST MVFR FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD
IFR IN SHRA/RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 270847
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270847
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270847
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 270847
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.

WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.

FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 270754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 270754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL IT
MIXES OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF IT WILL BE A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN
TOWARDS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS
EAST...WHICH CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. DESPITE THE
RAIN BEING 36 HOURS OUT...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY THIS RUN
REGARDING WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON FRIDAY. THE GEM
MODEL IS SO FAR SOUTH RAIN JUST BRUSHES THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE
THE GFS CONCENTRATES THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH THE
NAM FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIMILAR IN
PLACEMENT WITH THE NAM...BUT HOLDS OFF THE HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY
WILL ONLY RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT UNTIL A
CLEARER SOLUTION CAN BE HAD.

WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING IN TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST WITH THE QUICKER TIMING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WARM AND RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE LONE
SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS THE FARTHEST NORTH TRACK
WHILE THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST SOUTH...WHICH IS A REVERSAL OF THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NITE AT THIS TIME.  WILL TRY TO MITIGATE THE
DIFFERENCES BY BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BE
MOVING TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN ON THE NOSE OF A 30-
40 KT LLJ AND PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL PROHIBIT SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING/HIGH PWATS WILL MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A DECENT THREAT.
MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERATES A SWATH OF QPF IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  BEST GUESS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MODEL SPREAD MAKES THIS A RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL ADD THE THREAT TO THE HWO.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER OVER NORTHEAST WI SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
PULLING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL...SATURDAYS HIGHS COULD BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...AND WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND CALM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.  WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WARMER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION.  WITH ANY SEMBLANCE OF A FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST...NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE LONGER NIGHTS COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG SOME NIGHTS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 270327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 270327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 270327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 270327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. WITH
CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING DWPTS IN MOST
AREAS. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT LEAST AT RHI AND
CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD IT WL
BE. FCST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG
CHGS WITH THE 06Z TAFS
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 262316
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON THE VALLEY FOG THREAT FOR KLSE. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER - PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS -
FAVORING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG SETUP. T/TD AT 23Z WAS 23
DEGREES...NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG BUT NOT A DEAL BREAKER EITHER.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME.
HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SAY NO...WHILE THE NAM/NAM-NEST SAY YES. TRENDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING MORE CLARITY TO 1/4SM YES/NO AND IF
YES...HOW LONG QUESTION. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST BUT KEEP
1/4SM TEMPO GROUP. ANTICIPATE AN UPDATE PRIOR TO 06Z IF T/TD STARTS
COLLAPSING QUICKLY.

FOR KRST...SOME HINTS THAT MVFR BR WOULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THU...WITH LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 262316
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON THE VALLEY FOG THREAT FOR KLSE. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD AND A DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER - PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS -
FAVORING A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING/FOG SETUP. T/TD AT 23Z WAS 23
DEGREES...NOT FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG BUT NOT A DEAL BREAKER EITHER.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME.
HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SAY NO...WHILE THE NAM/NAM-NEST SAY YES. TRENDS
THIS EVENING SHOULD BRING MORE CLARITY TO 1/4SM YES/NO AND IF
YES...HOW LONG QUESTION. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO FORECAST BUT KEEP
1/4SM TEMPO GROUP. ANTICIPATE AN UPDATE PRIOR TO 06Z IF T/TD STARTS
COLLAPSING QUICKLY.

FOR KRST...SOME HINTS THAT MVFR BR WOULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THU...WITH LOWER
CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 262135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
435 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NOW THAT THE LOW CLDS ARE FINALLY EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. SOME LATE-
DAY WARMING UNDER SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS TO
OPEN UP. STILL...WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS WL COME DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT
LEAST AT RHI AND CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW PERSISTENT IT WL
BE...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WL BE WIDESPREAD. 18Z TAF PACKAGE SEEMS
TO HAVE SITN HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 262135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
435 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

NOW THAT THE LOW CLDS ARE FINALLY EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...THE
MAIN AVIATION FCST ISSUE WL BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. SOME LATE-
DAY WARMING UNDER SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS TO
OPEN UP. STILL...WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...TEMPS WL COME DOWN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOME SIG FOG /POSSIBLY DENSE/ AT
LEAST AT RHI AND CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW PERSISTENT IT WL
BE...AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WL BE WIDESPREAD. 18Z TAF PACKAGE SEEMS
TO HAVE SITN HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KMKX 262037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 262037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 262036
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 262036
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 262036
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 262036
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 262030
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 262030
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES...FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ARE CHALLENGES AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS DIMINISH.

CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DEPART LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALL
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA FELL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE HIGH THIS MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...EXCEPT
FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THEY WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S. 12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AND THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL. THINK THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS FROM GETTING COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FROST NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOWER
AND LOWS SHOULD BE COLDER...AND ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT
TO EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL US
AS TROUGH APPROACHES WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEFORE WE GET THERE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS
REGION ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY. A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT...INCLUDING WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AND HOW LONG INTO SAT THE PRECIP WILL LINGER. GFS HAS
BEEN MOST CONSISTENT MODEL LAST FEW RUNS...AND LAST EVE ECMWF
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...NOW CLOSER TO GFS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
THEN GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS EARLY IN NEW WEEK. TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NE WISC THROUGH AT LEAST
MON-WED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 261733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 261733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 261733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 261733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 261733
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY BUT CUMULUS DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS THAT CLEARED.
EVEN SO...CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE VFR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE UPPER MICHIGAN
BORDER. EXPECT CLEARING TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO WISCONSIN AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT...FOG BECOMES AN
ISSUE AS WINDS DISSIPATE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WAS SOME
DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL...WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. 12Z NAM/GFS MOS WERE FORECASTING
IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN FOG AND/OR LIFR CIGS AT TAF SITES TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 261705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 261705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 261705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST... BUT BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN QUICKLY
BEHIND IT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR US WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE HIGH TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS
WEST OF MADISON HITTING THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES WILL FINALLY BE OVER US TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY- THIS TIME NOT SO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CIGS WILL BE ON THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BRING BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS WEST OF MADISON... WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A FEW
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST... BUT BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN QUICKLY
BEHIND IT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR US WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE HIGH TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS
WEST OF MADISON HITTING THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES WILL FINALLY BE OVER US TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY- THIS TIME NOT SO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CIGS WILL BE ON THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BRING BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS WEST OF MADISON... WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A FEW
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KARX 261314
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
814 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS TO 6KFT...AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
ALL IN PLACE. HAVE PLACED AN INTRODUCTION OF THE FOG AND FORECASTS
WILL TREND FROM THIS POINT DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261314
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
814 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS TO 6KFT...AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
ALL IN PLACE. HAVE PLACED AN INTRODUCTION OF THE FOG AND FORECASTS
WILL TREND FROM THIS POINT DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 261314
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
814 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS TO 6KFT...AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
ALL IN PLACE. HAVE PLACED AN INTRODUCTION OF THE FOG AND FORECASTS
WILL TREND FROM THIS POINT DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 261314
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
814 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS TO 6KFT...AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
ALL IN PLACE. HAVE PLACED AN INTRODUCTION OF THE FOG AND FORECASTS
WILL TREND FROM THIS POINT DEPENDING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 261050
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS
EROSION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MIXING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FACILITATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT RHI WHERE
MOISTURE FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO THICKER FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 261050
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS
EROSION...SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER MIXING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FACILITATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AWAY
FROM THE LAKESHORE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT RHI WHERE
MOISTURE FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO THICKER FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



000
FXUS63 KARX 260846
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT EAST/VRB WED NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 03Z WAS 5 F...GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION. SFC WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT. A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...EVEN LIGHT...CAN BE PROHIBITIVE TO DENSE FOG AT KLSE.
MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER. RAP/HRRR/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LAYER DOESN/T DEEPEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. BCFG BKN003 STILL LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN
SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE IF NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 260846
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT 3 AM...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS LIKELY
HELPED WITH THE CLOUDS ADVANCING WEST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TREND ON THE 11 TO 3.9
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CLEARING WILL OCCUR AT LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT MAYBE SOME PATCHY VALLEY MAY DEVELOP OR EVEN A
STRATUS DECK. WE ARE ALREADY NOTICING A MOISTURE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.

WITH FULL SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE VALLEYS WILL WARM ABOUT
4F ABOVE THE NAM MOS AND WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL EXTEND UP TO 7K FEET AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE 26.00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE 25.00Z NAM SOLUTION. THESE 3 MODELS ARE
NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEVELOPED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK
MAKES SENSE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST NORTH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAUSING THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE ROCKIES TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AHEAD OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA. AT THIS TIME...THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLIMBING TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE A 2 TO 4 INCH BAND OF
RAIN ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. CONSIDERING THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AND INSTABILITY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
ECMWF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH FOLLOWED THE ECMWF RAIN TOTALS...WAS NOT AS CERTAIN WITH
IT HOLDING ONTO THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THUS OPTED TO
FOLLOW MORE THE GFS/NAM CONSENSUS WHICH HAS MUCH OF SATURDAY DRY.

FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 925 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 26 TO 28C RANGE WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS IS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THIS...OPTED
TO RAISE THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 2F WHICH RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER
80S AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT EAST/VRB WED NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 03Z WAS 5 F...GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION. SFC WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT. A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...EVEN LIGHT...CAN BE PROHIBITIVE TO DENSE FOG AT KLSE.
MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER. RAP/HRRR/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LAYER DOESN/T DEEPEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. BCFG BKN003 STILL LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN
SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE IF NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
308 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE STUBBORN CLOUD DECK THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE CLOUD DECK IS IN
RESPONSE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE DECK
ERODING ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS SLOWLY ERODE THIS DECK FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS RIDGING WORKS ITS WAY EAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A TROUGH AND TRACKS EAST OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC. THE 850 MB RH FIELDS SEEM TO MIMIC THIS QUITE
WELL...THEREFORE WILL SLOWLY WIPE OUT THE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY PER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

RIDGING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A VERY LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW
UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH.
FURTHER SOUTH IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MOST
LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET INTO THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING
BY THIS WEEKEND...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.  THE ONLY SYSTEM TO REALLY CONTEND WITH IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.  THE GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  SO WILL LEAN ON OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND
GEM.  THEREAFTER...MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY.  WILL RELY
ON THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR LATER PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR AWAY FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS...WILL SEE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RATHER POOR IN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PUSH INTO FAR N-C
WISCONSIN LATE.  THINK COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS POP UP
OVER THE NORTH...BUT ALSO THINK PRECIP CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE.  WILL
BACK OFF A LITTLE.  BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WHEN THE SOUTHERN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION.  SO CHANCES FOR LOOK HIGHEST OVER THE FAR
NORTH...AND ALSO OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WILL RECONFIGURE POPS A
LITTLE.  THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD PLACE HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN WI.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SUN ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  THEN WILL SEE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND.  PERHAPS A CHANCE OF RAIN
SNEAKS INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KARX 260414
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CHALLENGES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS...
TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT TONIGHT...
BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

25.20Z SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 25.18Z RAP 1 KM 90 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONTOUR HAS BEEN A GOOD PROXY TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWS
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
25.06Z. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NSSL SYNTHETIC
IR...SO EXPECT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DEEPENING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 25.09Z...THINK
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN LATEST
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 25.12Z...BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...DEEPENING TO NEARLY 6000
FT AGL. FOG POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE A GOOD CHANCE AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY
FOG.

CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE
LATE IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR. RISING
925 TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FRIDAY NOW LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND WET AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE PRODUCES A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AXIS ALONG ENHANCED 850 TO 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...MOVING FROM EAST-CENTRAL NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE DAY...THE ECMWF PAINTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL A BIT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM WHICH ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO ITS NORTHERN
SOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK AND WILL CAP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
BEING THE DOMINATE MODE. STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...
FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK
DRY WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
RISING TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS FOLDS OVER ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT EAST/VRB WED NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 03Z WAS 5 F...GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION. SFC WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT. A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...EVEN LIGHT...CAN BE PROHIBITIVE TO DENSE FOG AT KLSE.
MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER. RAP/HRRR/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LAYER DOESN/T DEEPEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. BCFG BKN003 STILL LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN
SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE IF NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 260414
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CHALLENGES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS...
TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT TONIGHT...
BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

25.20Z SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 25.18Z RAP 1 KM 90 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONTOUR HAS BEEN A GOOD PROXY TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWS
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
25.06Z. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NSSL SYNTHETIC
IR...SO EXPECT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DEEPENING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 25.09Z...THINK
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN LATEST
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 25.12Z...BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...DEEPENING TO NEARLY 6000
FT AGL. FOG POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE A GOOD CHANCE AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY
FOG.

CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE
LATE IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR. RISING
925 TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FRIDAY NOW LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND WET AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE PRODUCES A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AXIS ALONG ENHANCED 850 TO 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...MOVING FROM EAST-CENTRAL NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE DAY...THE ECMWF PAINTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL A BIT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM WHICH ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO ITS NORTHERN
SOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK AND WILL CAP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
BEING THE DOMINATE MODE. STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...
FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK
DRY WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
RISING TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS FOLDS OVER ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT EAST/VRB WED NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 03Z WAS 5 F...GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION. SFC WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT. A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...EVEN LIGHT...CAN BE PROHIBITIVE TO DENSE FOG AT KLSE.
MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER. RAP/HRRR/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LAYER DOESN/T DEEPEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. BCFG BKN003 STILL LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN
SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE IF NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260329
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT WAS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE MUCH OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND BEGIN
TO EXIT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT...MAKING CLOUD COVER THE ONLY THING
REALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THEY NEVER WARMED UP VERY MUCH IN THE FIRST PLACE. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOWED NEUTRAL OR WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TONIGHT SO
HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING.

DECREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. HAVE MOSTLY MID 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR HIGHS...WHICH MIGHT BE TOO COOL IF THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS
THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA CONTINUES TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER AREA
WEATHER AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST MOVES EAST. DURING THIS
TRANSITION...AT LEAST ONE WAVE (LATE THIS WEEK) WILL MOVE ACROSS
MID/UPPER MISS VALLEY AND BRING WITH IT WIDESPREAD PRECIP. HOW
FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP GETS IS MAIN QUESTION.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WL START AT OR BELOW NORMAL...BUT WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

BEFORE RAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN...SURFACE HI PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES...LITTLE WIND AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WED NIGHT. MIN TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPR 30S OVER
THE COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHWOODS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
NRN WI TO SEE READINGS IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE...WITH UPR 40S TO
LWR 50S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THEN UNDERCUTS WESTERN UPR RDG AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 25/12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...WITH 25/12Z ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH WITH HEAVY RAIN AREA. AND
NOT TO MENTION POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH NAM. WILL
LEAN MOST ON 25/12Z GFS FOR THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEEP HEAVIEST PRECIP
NEAR OR JUST S OF A WISC RAPIDS TO SHEBOYGAN LINE....WHICH IS
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUD DECK ACRS THE AREA STILL PRETTY SOLID LOOKING ON STLT
IMAGERY...THOUGH THE BACK EDGE WAS NEARING THE WRN BORDER OF THE
FCST AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME DECR IN CLDS OVERNIGHT...ESP ACRS THE
WEST. SOME SC WL REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT THEN MIXING AND
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW CLDS TO DECR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




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