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000
FXUS63 KGRB 202349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
649 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH RHI/AUW/CWA AROUND
03Z...AND ATW/GRB/MTW AROUND 05Z-06Z. AFTER THE INITIAL BAND MOVES
THROUGH...AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH THE STEADY
RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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000
FXUS63 KARX 202312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A VERY COMPACT/STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FAIRLY
INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDING N-
S ACROSS NORTHERN MN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40KT. WITH THIS
MOVEMENT...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA //SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI//
BY 7 PM. MESOWRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THIS CONVECTION HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SUCH AS
STRONG 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT
300MB JET. RAP/NAM NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MUCAPE...BUT SHEAR DYNAMICS
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR STORMS. ALSO NOTED WAS 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY
INTENSE/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING //MAINLY
IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME// WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE NORTH OF I-90. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS WAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... A
TRAILING TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HEIGHT
START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK OR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS...
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A QUIET/DRY PERIOD. PLAN ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW THE
TROUGH EITHER RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OR
WEAKENING...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO GIVE THE
AREA AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT/DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF THE ECMWF
PANS OUT WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION...HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO HIT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE THROUGH KRST BY 02Z AND KLSE BY
03Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR BEHIND THE STORMS
BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN OVERNIGHT FOR A RETURN
OF MVFR CEILINGS. BASED ON THE 20.18Z NAM...THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP TO
VFR. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE
MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCSH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 202312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A VERY COMPACT/STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FAIRLY
INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDING N-
S ACROSS NORTHERN MN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40KT. WITH THIS
MOVEMENT...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA //SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI//
BY 7 PM. MESOWRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THIS CONVECTION HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SUCH AS
STRONG 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT
300MB JET. RAP/NAM NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MUCAPE...BUT SHEAR DYNAMICS
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR STORMS. ALSO NOTED WAS 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY
INTENSE/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING //MAINLY
IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME// WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE NORTH OF I-90. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS WAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... A
TRAILING TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HEIGHT
START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK OR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS...
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A QUIET/DRY PERIOD. PLAN ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW THE
TROUGH EITHER RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OR
WEAKENING...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO GIVE THE
AREA AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT/DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF THE ECMWF
PANS OUT WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION...HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO HIT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE THROUGH KRST BY 02Z AND KLSE BY
03Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR BEHIND THE STORMS
BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN OVERNIGHT FOR A RETURN
OF MVFR CEILINGS. BASED ON THE 20.18Z NAM...THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP TO
VFR. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE
MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCSH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 202312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A VERY COMPACT/STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FAIRLY
INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDING N-
S ACROSS NORTHERN MN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40KT. WITH THIS
MOVEMENT...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA //SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI//
BY 7 PM. MESOWRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THIS CONVECTION HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SUCH AS
STRONG 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT
300MB JET. RAP/NAM NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MUCAPE...BUT SHEAR DYNAMICS
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR STORMS. ALSO NOTED WAS 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY
INTENSE/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING //MAINLY
IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME// WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE NORTH OF I-90. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS WAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... A
TRAILING TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HEIGHT
START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK OR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS...
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A QUIET/DRY PERIOD. PLAN ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW THE
TROUGH EITHER RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OR
WEAKENING...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO GIVE THE
AREA AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT/DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF THE ECMWF
PANS OUT WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION...HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO HIT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE THROUGH KRST BY 02Z AND KLSE BY
03Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR BEHIND THE STORMS
BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN OVERNIGHT FOR A RETURN
OF MVFR CEILINGS. BASED ON THE 20.18Z NAM...THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP TO
VFR. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE
MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCSH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 202312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A VERY COMPACT/STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FAIRLY
INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDING N-
S ACROSS NORTHERN MN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40KT. WITH THIS
MOVEMENT...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA //SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI//
BY 7 PM. MESOWRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THIS CONVECTION HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SUCH AS
STRONG 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT
300MB JET. RAP/NAM NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MUCAPE...BUT SHEAR DYNAMICS
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR STORMS. ALSO NOTED WAS 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY
INTENSE/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING //MAINLY
IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME// WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE NORTH OF I-90. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS WAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... A
TRAILING TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HEIGHT
START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK OR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS...
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A QUIET/DRY PERIOD. PLAN ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW THE
TROUGH EITHER RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OR
WEAKENING...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO GIVE THE
AREA AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT/DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF THE ECMWF
PANS OUT WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION...HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO HIT BOTH
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE THROUGH KRST BY 02Z AND KLSE BY
03Z AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR BEHIND THE STORMS
BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS IN OVERNIGHT FOR A RETURN
OF MVFR CEILINGS. BASED ON THE 20.18Z NAM...THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP TO
VFR. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE
MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCSH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 202014
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL EVOLVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS VERY STRONG UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PLUNGE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
ALSO TRAVERSING EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS HELPING TO
GENERATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AS FAR NORTH AS MANITOWOC COUNTY NEAR
THE FRONT BUT THESE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...ANOTHER MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IMPULSE HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE ANOTHER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCED CU/SC ALONG THE WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN BORDER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REACHING 30 MPH AT IMT AT TIMES.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE A
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...ORGANIZED AND RATHER STRONG
MESOSCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A NW-
SE ORIENTATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
NEAR THE LFQ OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. LATEST RADAR
DATA INDICATES WELL-ORGANIZED QUASILINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LFQ OF THE JET AND HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE RACES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...THIS QUASILINEAR MCS
APPEARS TO BE PROPAGATING FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MAKE IT TO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 01 OR 02Z. IN
ADDITION...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING AREA OF BLYR
CONVERGENCE FURTHER EAST ALONG THE AFFORMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTATED
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WE APPROACH THE LATE
EVENING...THE QUASILINEAR MCS AND SCATTERED UPSTREAM SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL. THUS EXPECT FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER DYNAMICS AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 12-14Z SUNDAY...LINGERED LOW POPS WELL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO HELP FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY
LATE AFTERNOON..DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR SOMEWHAT. TEMPS
WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EXTENDED MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WITH THE
MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM A ROCKIES UPR RDG/E-CNTRL CONUS UPR
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO A WRN CONUS UPR TROF/ERN CONUS UPR RDG
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FCST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MID-WEEK HEADED TOWARD
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WOULD SEND NE WI FROM
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ABOVE NORMAL PCPN...TO A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN.

THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE SE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY SUNDAY NGT. THIS PLACES NE WI
UNDER THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS SFC HI...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A LIGHT N-NW WIND. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PCPN FALLS TNGT/SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BR FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY NGT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15
KT RANGE AND MAY NOT BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING
THE MID 30S OVER NRN WI. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST WORDING
GENERALLY NORTH OF A MERRILL-ANTIGO-WAUSAUKEE LINE.

THE SFC HI DRIFTS EAST INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON MON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEST WINDS UNDER 10
MPH AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LWR 60S LAKESIDE (DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE) TO THE MID
TO UPR 60S ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SFC HI HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST MON NGT...MODEST WAA
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNGT. 8H TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 4C DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NGT...THUS DO NOT EXPECT
SFC TEMPS TO QUITE AS COOL. THE W-SW WINDS ALOFT WL ALSO BEGIN TO
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER BOUT OF PATCHY LATE NGT FOG OVER THE FCST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 40S NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGS
SOUTH. RETURN FLOW IN FULL EFFECT BY TUE AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH (EXCEPT S-SE NEAR LAKE MI AS THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES INLAND)
AND WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR PUSHES INTO WI. THE FCST AREA TO RESIDE
ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE DEPARTED SFC HI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...UPR 60S/LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

HEADED INTO MID-WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF (REMAINS OF A CA CLOSED UPR LOW) ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS. TUE NGT APPEARS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S-SE WINDS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST ON WED IN A WEAKENING STATE BETWEEN UPR RDGS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND ERN CONUS. CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER CNTRL
WI WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHWRS IMPINGING ON N-CNTRL WI
LATE IN THE DAY. ERN WI SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LWR 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER N-CNTRL
AND LAKESHORE.

AN INTERESTING PHENOMENA THEN TAKES PLACE WED NGT INTO THU AS THE
ERN CONUS UPR RDG RETROGRADES WWD AND STARTS TO PINCH OFF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF STILL SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY/MIDWEST. NRN
SECTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES...
WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE TROF DRIFTS SW AND TRIES TO BECOME A WEAK
CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...
CNTRL WI MAY HAVE A SMALL SHWR CHC WED NGT INTO THU MORNING...BUT
ERN WI MAY END UP NOT SEEING A DROP OF RAIN.

THE END OF THE WEEK WL FEATURE A DEEP UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST
COAST AND A LARGE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
SET-UP WOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
IN FACT...CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS ON SAT REACHING 80 DEGS OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 202002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A VERY COMPACT/STRONG MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A FAIRLY
INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE EXTENDING N-
S ACROSS NORTHERN MN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40KT. WITH THIS
MOVEMENT...EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS CONVECTION INTO NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA //SOUTHEAST MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI//
BY 7 PM. MESOWRF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THIS CONVECTION HAS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH SUCH AS
STRONG 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION AND LIFT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 130KT
300MB JET. RAP/NAM NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MUCAPE...BUT SHEAR DYNAMICS
OF THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR STORMS. ALSO NOTED WAS 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE. SO...EXPECTING SOME FAIRLY
INTENSE/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING //MAINLY
IN THE 7-10 PM TIME FRAME// WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE NORTH OF I-90. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

AS THIS WAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT... A
TRAILING TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS HEIGHT
START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...LOOK OR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM RECENT RAINS...
EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
CRANBERRY BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A QUIET/DRY PERIOD. PLAN ON MONDAY NIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WITH HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FUEL A FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW THE
TROUGH EITHER RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OR
WEAKENING...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER A RIDGE. THIS LOOKS TO GIVE THE
AREA AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PLEASANT/DRY EARLY FALL CONDITIONS. LOOKS
LIKE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF THE ECMWF
PANS OUT WITH ITS STRONGER RIDGE SOLUTION...HIGHS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
POINTING TO SKC SKIES POST FRONT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...AND
HELP FIRE A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS -
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

UPSTREAM OBS WITH THE SHORTWAVE POINT TO AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2-2.5 KFT RANGE. MODEL RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR THIS
TOO...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOST OF
THIS APPEARS POST THE APPROX 3 HOUR WINDOW WHEN A -SHRA/TS THREAT IS
HIGHLIGHTED. SPEAKING OF WHICH...WITH INSTABILITY MINIMAL AT
BEST...WILL KEEP MENTION TO -SHRA RATHER THAN -TSRA. DYNAMICS DO
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FRONT LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN BY THE
EVENING. KLSE COULD BE UNDER MVFR CLOUDS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING...POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 201752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ESB






000
FXUS63 KGRB 201752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTCENTRAL
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
SC AOA 3000 FEET OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN QUICKLY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING GENERATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 06Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CIGS THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 201644
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON EXITING MORNING CONVECTION AND THE RETURN FOR
MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM
DULUTH TO SIOUX CITY IA...HAVE AIDED IN MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL IA
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE DUE TO CAPPING PRESENT OF BL PARCELS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
FOR THE CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES LIFTED FROM 1 KM BETWEEN 1000-
2000 J/KG. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS BEEN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVER
CENTRAL MN. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAS NOT MUCH COLDER THAN
AHEAD...WITH 925MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 20-24C. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES TO 1-
1.25 INCHES. UPSTREAM A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN WHERE 925MB TEMPS DROP TO 12-
14C.

THE COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN ARE PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE-850MB
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY 18Z. ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TO MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13Z PER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL CARRIED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE EVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FORM AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE IN.
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS. THE SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 18-20C FOR MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW
80S IN VALLEYS.

SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
FORCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGHING. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER JUMPS UP TO
1-1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WISE...ITS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH VALUES OF
100-500 J/KG...MOSTLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR TODAY UPSTREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MN WHERE
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGHER DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY INTERSECTS
THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY STILL SEE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP FOR THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
CONVECTION. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT TOO
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE A FRONTOGENESIS BAND LOOKS TO SETUP ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN
FACT...925MB TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS 10C ON A BRISK 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO PULL THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE BAND WILL BE
CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...BUT SOME MAY EVEN CREEP ACROSS THE MS RIVER
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 20.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARDS AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. OVERALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH...925MB TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OUT FROM 10-12C AT 00Z
MONDAY...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. MARCHING EAST
INTO MN AND IA BY 12Z TUE. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING BOTH NIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS COULD DRIFT ACROSS
BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
EXIST FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIBUTARIES. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB
TEMPS OF 12-14C ON MONDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMEST IN VALLEYS. THESE 925MB TEMPS CLIMB
ANOTHER 1-2C ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A SIMILAR BUMP UP IN HIGHS.

IN GENERAL THE WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FROM TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. IN FACT...MOST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 590 DAM 500MB HIGH TO FORM OVER MICHIGAN BY
00Z SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS IS ALL A RESULT OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....SOMETHING THAT HASNT BEEN SEEN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE TO WORRY ABOUT IS THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH MODELS TRY TO BRING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING STATE CENTERED AROUND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS...IT TAKES
AWHILE FOR A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THAT
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH. THUS...TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALL
LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SFC FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
POINTING TO SKC SKIES POST FRONT. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...AND
HELP FIRE A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND THE STRONGER STORMS -
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

UPSTREAM OBS WITH THE SHORTWAVE POINT TO AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
2-2.5 KFT RANGE. MODEL RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR THIS
TOO...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOST OF
THIS APPEARS POST THE APPROX 3 HOUR WINDOW WHEN A -SHRA/TS THREAT IS
HIGHLIGHTED. SPEAKING OF WHICH...WITH INSTABILITY MINIMAL AT
BEST...WILL KEEP MENTION TO -SHRA RATHER THAN -TSRA. DYNAMICS DO
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FRONT LIKELY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF
SUNDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN BY THE
EVENING. KLSE COULD BE UNDER MVFR CLOUDS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING...POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201604
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE
EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE SECOND AREA IS
APPROACHING. MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THIS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE TROUGH
AXIS UPPER JET. THEN MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE THE
SECOND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE A SMALL TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A EARLY EVENING LULL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

THE FIST LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING. THEN CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 201604
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE
EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE SECOND AREA IS
APPROACHING. MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THIS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE TROUGH
AXIS UPPER JET. THEN MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE THE
SECOND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE A SMALL TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A EARLY EVENING LULL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

THE FIST LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING. THEN CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 201159
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON EXITING MORNING CONVECTION AND THE RETURN FOR
MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM
DULUTH TO SIOUX CITY IA...HAVE AIDED IN MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL IA
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE DUE TO CAPPING PRESENT OF BL PARCELS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
FOR THE CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES LIFTED FROM 1 KM BETWEEN 1000-
2000 J/KG. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS BEEN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVER
CENTRAL MN. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAS NOT MUCH COLDER THAN
AHEAD...WITH 925MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 20-24C. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES TO 1-
1.25 INCHES. UPSTREAM A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN WHERE 925MB TEMPS DROP TO 12-
14C.

THE COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN ARE PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE-850MB
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY 18Z. ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TO MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13Z PER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL CARRIED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE EVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FORM AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE IN.
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS. THE SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 18-20C FOR MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW
80S IN VALLEYS.

SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
FORCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGHING. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER JUMPS UP TO
1-1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WISE...ITS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH VALUES OF
100-500 J/KG...MOSTLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR TODAY UPSTREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MN WHERE
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGHER DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY INTERSECTS
THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY STILL SEE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP FOR THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
CONVECTION. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT TOO
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE A FRONTOGENESIS BAND LOOKS TO SETUP ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN
FACT...925MB TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS 10C ON A BRISK 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO PULL THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE BAND WILL BE
CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...BUT SOME MAY EVEN CREEP ACROSS THE MS RIVER
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 20.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARDS AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. OVERALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH...925MB TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OUT FROM 10-12C AT 00Z
MONDAY...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. MARCHING EAST
INTO MN AND IA BY 12Z TUE. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING BOTH NIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS COULD DRIFT ACROSS
BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
EXIST FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIBUTARIES. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB
TEMPS OF 12-14C ON MONDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMEST IN VALLEYS. THESE 925MB TEMPS CLIMB
ANOTHER 1-2C ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A SIMILAR BUMP UP IN HIGHS.

IN GENERAL THE WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FROM TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. IN FACT...MOST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 590 DAM 500MB HIGH TO FORM OVER MICHIGAN BY
00Z SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS IS ALL A RESULT OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....SOMETHING THAT HASNT BEEN SEEN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE TO WORRY ABOUT IS THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH MODELS TRY TO BRING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING STATE CENTERED AROUND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS...IT TAKES
AWHILE FOR A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THAT
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH. THUS...TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALL
LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KRST THROUGH
20.16Z. THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE
IT INTO KLSE. HOWEVER WITH WEAK 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 20.15Z AND 20.18Z...MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER ADDING
THEM TO THE TAF LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
IT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 21.01Z AND 21.03Z...AND KLSE
BETWEEN 21.02Z AND 21.04Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 5K FEET DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT A MVFR STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR LOCATED ACROSS REGION...A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THIS...SO OPTED NOT
PUTTING THESE CLOUDS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 201159
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
659 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON EXITING MORNING CONVECTION AND THE RETURN FOR
MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM
DULUTH TO SIOUX CITY IA...HAVE AIDED IN MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL IA
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE DUE TO CAPPING PRESENT OF BL PARCELS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
FOR THE CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES LIFTED FROM 1 KM BETWEEN 1000-
2000 J/KG. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS BEEN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVER
CENTRAL MN. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAS NOT MUCH COLDER THAN
AHEAD...WITH 925MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 20-24C. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES TO 1-
1.25 INCHES. UPSTREAM A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN WHERE 925MB TEMPS DROP TO 12-
14C.

THE COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN ARE PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE-850MB
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY 18Z. ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TO MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13Z PER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL CARRIED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE EVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FORM AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE IN.
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS. THE SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 18-20C FOR MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW
80S IN VALLEYS.

SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
FORCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGHING. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER JUMPS UP TO
1-1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WISE...ITS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH VALUES OF
100-500 J/KG...MOSTLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR TODAY UPSTREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MN WHERE
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGHER DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY INTERSECTS
THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY STILL SEE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP FOR THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
CONVECTION. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT TOO
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE A FRONTOGENESIS BAND LOOKS TO SETUP ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN
FACT...925MB TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS 10C ON A BRISK 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO PULL THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE BAND WILL BE
CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...BUT SOME MAY EVEN CREEP ACROSS THE MS RIVER
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 20.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARDS AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. OVERALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH...925MB TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OUT FROM 10-12C AT 00Z
MONDAY...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. MARCHING EAST
INTO MN AND IA BY 12Z TUE. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING BOTH NIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS COULD DRIFT ACROSS
BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
EXIST FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIBUTARIES. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB
TEMPS OF 12-14C ON MONDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMEST IN VALLEYS. THESE 925MB TEMPS CLIMB
ANOTHER 1-2C ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A SIMILAR BUMP UP IN HIGHS.

IN GENERAL THE WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FROM TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. IN FACT...MOST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 590 DAM 500MB HIGH TO FORM OVER MICHIGAN BY
00Z SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS IS ALL A RESULT OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....SOMETHING THAT HASNT BEEN SEEN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE TO WORRY ABOUT IS THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH MODELS TRY TO BRING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING STATE CENTERED AROUND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS...IT TAKES
AWHILE FOR A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THAT
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH. THUS...TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALL
LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT KRST THROUGH
20.16Z. THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE
IT INTO KLSE. HOWEVER WITH WEAK 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN 20.15Z AND 20.18Z...MAY HAVE TO RECONSIDER ADDING
THEM TO THE TAF LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
IT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 21.01Z AND 21.03Z...AND KLSE
BETWEEN 21.02Z AND 21.04Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 5K FEET DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT A MVFR STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR LOCATED ACROSS REGION...A BIT
CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER DOING THIS...SO OPTED NOT
PUTTING THESE CLOUDS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 201112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IT
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TODAY WITH
A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. IT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 200859
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND UPPER JET SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS FORCING SHOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE
IT GOES BY. IF STORMS DO MATERIALZE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER BUT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL APPROACH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. 300 MB WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
ARE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
IS QUITE SHARP. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES OF 6000FT TO 8000FT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR SOME LARGE HAIL TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE BLUSTERY AND FALL LIKE IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...CONSISTING
OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN CANADA...
AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID-WEEK...AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEARLY THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

ONLY CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW CAN TEMPS DROP AND HOW
MUCH FROST AND FOG WILL DEVELOP. BOTH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...AS WINDS LOOK TO DIE OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW...WITH A
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO
THE EAST. MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
A LITTLE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FROST ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH...SO ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
ADDED THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY REGARDING
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEK. LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN WI...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THE
LOW SIDE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DURING THE "BEST" PERIOD OF FORCING
FROM THE SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 200750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON EXITING MORNING CONVECTION AND THE RETURN FOR
MORE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS TROUGH IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN...
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM
DULUTH TO SIOUX CITY IA...HAVE AIDED IN MAINTAINING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL IA
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE DUE TO CAPPING PRESENT OF BL PARCELS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
FOR THE CONVECTION WITH CAPE VALUES LIFTED FROM 1 KM BETWEEN 1000-
2000 J/KG. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS BEEN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVER
CENTRAL MN. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WAS NOT MUCH COLDER THAN
AHEAD...WITH 925MB TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 20-24C. HOWEVER...
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 1.5-1.75 INCHES TO 1-
1.25 INCHES. UPSTREAM A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXISTS OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN WHERE 925MB TEMPS DROP TO 12-
14C.

THE COLLECTION OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND MN ARE PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...PUSHING THE SURFACE-850MB
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA BY 18Z. ANTICIPATING
MUCH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES TO MARCH
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 13Z PER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL CONSENSUS. STILL CARRIED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE EVENT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS FORM AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE IN.
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORNING STRATUS. THE SUNSHINE
COMBINED WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 18-20C FOR MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LOW
80S IN VALLEYS.

SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
FORCED BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TROUGHING. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALSO HAVE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER JUMPS UP TO
1-1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WISE...ITS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH VALUES OF
100-500 J/KG...MOSTLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANTICIPATING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD OCCUR TODAY UPSTREAM OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MN WHERE
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGHER DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY INTERSECTS
THE SHORTWAVE. SHEAR PROFILES WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY STILL SEE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS...THOUGH. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UP FOR THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS
CONVECTION. KEPT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT TOO
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE A FRONTOGENESIS BAND LOOKS TO SETUP ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION. IN
FACT...925MB TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS 10C ON A BRISK 30-40 KT 925MB
NORTHWEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
TO PULL THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE BAND WILL BE
CONFINED TO WISCONSIN...BUT SOME MAY EVEN CREEP ACROSS THE MS RIVER
AS SUGGESTED BY THE 20.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UPWARDS AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. OVERALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH...925MB TEMPS ONLY TOPPING OUT FROM 10-12C AT 00Z
MONDAY...A BREEZY NORTH WIND AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN NOT
OCCURRING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. MARCHING EAST
INTO MN AND IA BY 12Z TUE. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING BOTH NIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS COULD DRIFT ACROSS
BOTH NIGHTS...BUT IT APPEARS ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
EXIST FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIBUTARIES. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS DUE TO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
CENTRAL WI COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. 925MB
TEMPS OF 12-14C ON MONDAY WITH MORE SUN WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WARMEST IN VALLEYS. THESE 925MB TEMPS CLIMB
ANOTHER 1-2C ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A SIMILAR BUMP UP IN HIGHS.

IN GENERAL THE WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET FROM TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THANKS TO SIGNIFICANT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S.. IN FACT...MOST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 590 DAM 500MB HIGH TO FORM OVER MICHIGAN BY
00Z SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS IS ALL A RESULT OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S....SOMETHING THAT HASNT BEEN SEEN FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE TO WORRY ABOUT IS THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH MODELS TRY TO BRING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN A WEAKENING STATE CENTERED AROUND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. DESPITE THE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS...IT TAKES
AWHILE FOR A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO 850MB TEMPS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THAT
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH. THUS...TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALL
LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ACTIVITY HAS UPSCALED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING. AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...EXPECT THAT KRST
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR SO AND KLSE
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER/DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS. THE 20.02Z HRRR AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING GROWTH UP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS IMPACTING KLSE WHILE THE 20.00Z CR-NESTNAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CR-NESTNAM CURRENTLY INDICATES WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS AT KRST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH FOR THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOTH SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KMKX 200505
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SCT TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER NRN IA AND SE MN...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THE TSTORMS WILL BE. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS STILL
SUGGESTS SCT COVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR SE WI AND NRN IL
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THUS LIKELY POPS IN
FAR SE WI LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. THEY WILL CONTINUE OVER SE
WI DURING THE DAY. THE SURGE OF HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CIGS OF 1-3 KFT SAT AM LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200505
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SCT TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER NRN IA AND SE MN...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THE TSTORMS WILL BE. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS STILL
SUGGESTS SCT COVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR SE WI AND NRN IL
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THUS LIKELY POPS IN
FAR SE WI LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. THEY WILL CONTINUE OVER SE
WI DURING THE DAY. THE SURGE OF HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CIGS OF 1-3 KFT SAT AM LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KARX 200434
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ACTIVITY HAS UPSCALED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING. AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...EXPECT THAT KRST
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR SO AND KLSE
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER/DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS. THE 20.02Z HRRR AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING GROWTH UP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS IMPACTING KLSE WHILE THE 20.00Z CR-NESTNAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CR-NESTNAM CURRENTLY INDICATES WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS AT KRST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH FOR THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOTH SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 200434
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ACTIVITY HAS UPSCALED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING. AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...EXPECT THAT KRST
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR SO AND KLSE
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER/DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS. THE 20.02Z HRRR AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING GROWTH UP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS IMPACTING KLSE WHILE THE 20.00Z CR-NESTNAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CR-NESTNAM CURRENTLY INDICATES WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS AT KRST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH FOR THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOTH SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 200434
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ACTIVITY HAS UPSCALED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING. AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...EXPECT THAT KRST
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR SO AND KLSE
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER/DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS. THE 20.02Z HRRR AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING GROWTH UP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS IMPACTING KLSE WHILE THE 20.00Z CR-NESTNAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CR-NESTNAM CURRENTLY INDICATES WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS AT KRST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH FOR THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOTH SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 200434
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ACTIVITY HAS UPSCALED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WHAT THE MESO SCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING. AS
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...EXPECT THAT KRST
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 07Z OR SO AND KLSE
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL LINGER/DEVELOP BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS. THE 20.02Z HRRR AND PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING GROWTH UP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS IMPACTING KLSE WHILE THE 20.00Z CR-NESTNAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CR-NESTNAM CURRENTLY INDICATES WILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE HRRR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTS AT KRST. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY EVENING WITH MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE INCLUDED
A VCSH FOR THE LAST HALF OF SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOTH SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 200409
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1109 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. TSTMS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONG
0-1 KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE RRQ OF A 90 KT JET STREAK AND
AN INSTABILITY AXIS (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) ARE ALIGNED. EXPECT
PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LLJ VEERS WEST AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PULLS THROUGH.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY YET...SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50+ KTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP (7-8 C/KM). THE PRESENCE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 200409
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1109 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. TSTMS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONG
0-1 KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE RRQ OF A 90 KT JET STREAK AND
AN INSTABILITY AXIS (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) ARE ALIGNED. EXPECT
PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LLJ VEERS WEST AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PULLS THROUGH.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY YET...SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50+ KTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP (7-8 C/KM). THE PRESENCE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LLWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS AT CWA/AUW EARLY
THIS MORNING (LOW-LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET STREAK)...AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSTMS AT GRB/ATW/MTW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200208
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
908 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. TSTMS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONG
0-1 KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE RRQ OF A 90 KT JET STREAK AND
AN INSTABILITY AXIS (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) ARE ALIGNED. EXPECT
PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LLJ VEERS WEST AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PULLS THROUGH.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY YET...SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50+ KTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP (7-8 C/KM). THE PRESENCE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRENDS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NC WI LATE THIS EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW
CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 200208
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
908 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. TSTMS HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN WEST CENTRAL WI...WHERE STRONG
0-1 KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE RRQ OF A 90 KT JET STREAK AND
AN INSTABILITY AXIS (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) ARE ALIGNED. EXPECT
PCPN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E/SE ACROSS THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...
AS THE LLJ VEERS WEST AND THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PULLS THROUGH.
NOT SURE ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY YET...SO
WILL STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE INCREASED.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 40-50+ KTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP (7-8 C/KM). THE PRESENCE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG TSTM WINDS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRENDS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NC WI LATE THIS EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW
CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 192358
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRENDS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NC WI LATE THIS EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW
CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 192358
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 09Z-10Z...AND AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES BY 12Z-14Z/SAT.

SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRENDS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NC WI LATE THIS EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. EXPECT LOW
CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KARX 192320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE MESO SCALE
MODELS ARE NOW FOCUSING ON NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE INITIATION POINT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS...UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH HOW MUCH CONVECTION THEN FILLS IN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE 19.20Z HRRR WANTS TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 19.12Z HI-RES ARW
WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WOULD NOT FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL
IT WAS PAST THE TAF SITES. THE 19.18Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE HI-RES
ARW WHILE THE 19.18Z CR-NAMNEST IS CLOSER TO THE HRRR. SO FOR
NOW...UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE...WILL
STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SHOWING A VCTS AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 192320
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE MESO SCALE
MODELS ARE NOW FOCUSING ON NORTHWEST IOWA AS THE INITIATION POINT
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS...UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ARE WITH HOW MUCH CONVECTION THEN FILLS IN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. THE 19.20Z HRRR WANTS TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES WHILE THE 19.12Z HI-RES ARW
WOULD SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WOULD NOT FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL
IT WAS PAST THE TAF SITES. THE 19.18Z NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE HI-RES
ARW WHILE THE 19.18Z CR-NAMNEST IS CLOSER TO THE HRRR. SO FOR
NOW...UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHAT IS GOING TO TRANSPIRE...WILL
STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRENDS OF SHOWING A VCTS AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER THAT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 192026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 192026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 191943
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

WARM AND A BIT MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...THEN BRIEFLY
COOLER BEFORE TURNING MILD AND MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY LOW- AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND
THE NRN CONUS WL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROF
DEEPENING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOC
WITH THE WRN RIDGE SHIFTG TO THE JAMES BAY REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PROGRESSION SLOWS. THAT WL LEAVE HIGH UPR
HEIGHTS ACRS THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WELL TO THE N ACRS CANADA.

TEMPS WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...BRIEFLY DROP TO BLO NORMAL LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE
FCST PERIOD. UPR RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA THEREAFTER WL ALLOW
FOR ONLY SCT LGT SHOWERS AT MOST...AND QUITE POSSIBLY TOTALLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FLATTENED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FROM
MONTANA TO LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITHIN THIS TROUGHING...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING TO THE EAST AND ARE CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS.  ONE AREA IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHILE
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  A FEW SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LATTER CLUSTER ARE PASSING OVER N-C
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
AREA TO FOCUS ON IS OVER MINNESOTA WHERE PWATS ARE GREATER THAN 1.50
INCHES BUT STILL WAITING FOR INSTABILITY TO ARRIVE.  IF THIS AREA
CAN DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILS THIS AREA AND REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.  AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIP TIMING AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.  ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ENERGY...MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING IN THE
FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC/SREF/NAM ALL
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN COINCIDENT
WITH A RIBBON OF ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG.  SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA FOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE STORMS.
THE FORCING AND RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOK TO OUTRUN THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) COULD
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.  COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCATTERED BY THE TIME THEY
REACH NE WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  BEHIND THE STORMS...A LOW STRATUS
DECK SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD ALSO CREATE PATCHY
FOG IN SPOTS.  A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE EXITING
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN AS WELL.  BUT OTHERWISE...THE DAY SHOULD
START OUT RATHER CLOUDY WITH A LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  THE LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE HEATING CURVE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD LIFT WITH MIXING BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONT RELATIVELY INACTIVE.  AS IT REACHES NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL WILL
BE THERE FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  THE NAM GENERATES CLOSE TO 1500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ASSUMING TEMPERATURES CAN
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.  BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CAP TO OVERCOME.  SO
THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE OR
UPPER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPR SPEED MAX AND SHARPENING SHRTWV WL DIG SE ACRS THE FCST AREA
SAT NGT AS LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS. THE STG DYNAMICS WL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...ESP ACRS THE N. RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL THERE...TAPERING TO A HIGH-END CHC ACRS THE S.
INSTABILITY WON/T BE GREAT...BUT WL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDER GIVEN THE DYANMICS. TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH QPFS OF THE
MODELS WITH THE BETTER DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.

BLUSTERY...CLDY...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN...
WITH LINGERING SHRA OVER MAINLY THE N/NE/E. TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVENTUALLY
NEEDING A BIT MORE PRUNING.

TEMPS SUN NGT TRICKY BECAUSE THEY/LL DEPEND ON CLDS. THINK THERE
WL STILL BE ENOUGH OF A NW FLOW DOWN ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE CLOUDIER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SO DID NOT TAKE LOWS DOWN TOO FAR. A FROST/FREEZE
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA IF WE TOTALLY
CLEAR OUT.

UPR HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY LATER SUN NGT AND MON...SO THE COOLER
WX WL BE SHORT-LIVED. MODELS HINT THAT WK SHRTWVS WORKING ARND
THE WRN FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE COULD BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES.
THAT RESULTED IN SOME LOW-CHC POPS IN THE EXTENDED FCST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS. THAT/S CERTAINLY HARD TO RULE OUT SO LET
THOSE RIDE IN THE FCST. BUT OVERALL...FORCING WL BE WEAK AND
MOISTURE LIMITED...SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY PERIOD WITH ABV
NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 OR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS WELL.  GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECT
TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THEY APPROACH THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE
SHORE TAF SITES.  BEHIND THE STORMS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING
QUICKLY TO IFR AND MVFR LEVELS.  IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KARX 191922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE
VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 191922
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONCERN FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO
NORTHERN MN IN RESPONSE TO CORRIDOR OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/310K
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS OFFERING UP VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS ON CONVECTIVE SCHEMES BASED ON FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
THINKING WITH INCREASING 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/EVENTUAL
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SEE AT LEAST A SCATTERED
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THINKING THIS CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY START
OUT ELEVATED IN NATURE ABOVE THE CAP...BUT THEN CAP WEAKENS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. STILL THINKING THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-200J/KG
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. THIS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW VIGOROUS/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGER HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
INTO NORTHEAST IA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. FOR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY COMPACT/VIGOROUS PV-
ANOMALY ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN OUR AREA.
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. AS SUCH...WENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER NORTHEAST OF I-94 AND TAPERED TO LOWER-END
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH THE WARMER START
TO SATURDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO PERK UP INTO THE 70S TO A FEW LOWER
80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO TAPER OFF/MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY NORTHEAST OF I-94
TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY FAVORED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI. PLAN ON
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTER A COOL/POTENTIALLY FOGGY START...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A DRY/QUIET/MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY WITH HIGHS MIDDLE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOWING A
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVER DONE...BUT WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT AND INCLUDE SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES IN THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON FRIDAY FOR DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE
VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 191744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER
IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 191744
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR THE STORMS ARE FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/HIT THE TAF SITES BECAUSE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN SHOW MAY BE OVER
IOWA. HAVE LEFT THE VCTS IN THERE FOR THE MAIN PERIOD WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 191641
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 OR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS WELL.  GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECT
TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THEY APPROACH THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE
SHORE TAF SITES.  BEHIND THE STORMS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING
QUICKLY TO IFR AND MVFR LEVELS.  IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191641
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 OR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF
SITES AND POSSIBLY NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS WELL.  GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECT
TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS THEY APPROACH THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE
SHORE TAF SITES.  BEHIND THE STORMS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING
QUICKLY TO IFR AND MVFR LEVELS.  IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KMKX 191618
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH THE SUNNY SKIES SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT
AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE. DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191618
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH THE SUNNY SKIES SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT
AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE. DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191618
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH THE SUNNY SKIES SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT
AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE. DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191618
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1118 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH THE SUNNY SKIES SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE STRONG CAP AROUND 5 THSD FT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT
AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA. EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE. DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.  WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 191149
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN
THIS MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...THE WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
19.16Z AND 20.01Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT KRST
BETWEEN 20.03Z AND 20.08Z...AND AT KLSE BETWEEN 20.05Z AND 20.09Z.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THIS IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 191055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTUIRE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT 1100 UTC. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX
OUT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE CROSSWIND CONSIDERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 191055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTUIRE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT 1100 UTC. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX
OUT TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE CROSSWIND CONSIDERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190903
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
403 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER MOST PLACES. HOWEVER PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190903
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
403 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IS
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TODAY. IT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY IN MOST PLACES. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB TODAY BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE BELOW
500MB SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE
FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DEPART. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COUPLED JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BROKEN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY BREEZE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ELIMINATE
AN INVERSION AND GET THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT GOES BY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. SO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERNS RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND BRING A FAIRLY QUIET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO THE
EASTERN 2/3 OF CANADA AND U.S. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS CROSSING INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK. THIS COULD THROW SOME ISSUES INTO THE DRY FORECAST AS WE
HEAD TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE HIGH
SPREADS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START OFF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHER WISCONSIN...ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE AREA IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND TWO POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
CROSSING THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS
THINKING...BUT THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH. MOISTURE
SEEMS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL KEEP THE
POPS MAINLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT CAN SEE THEM NEEDING
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE EXIT THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AIR AND RIDGING BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING MOISTURE...AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER AND SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS ENTER THE FORECAST
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODELS NOW SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY
FORECAST...HOWEVER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THIS
TREND...POPS WILL BE NEEDED BY THURSDAY.

TEMPS LOOK TO START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME CHILLY
NIGHTS EXPECTED...THEN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER MOST PLACES. HOWEVER PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 190825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANDING LARGE LOW STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT...EXCEPT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE BLOWING PRETTY GOOD...THUS LIFTING IT
INTO MORE A STRATUS EVENT.

THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BLOW NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WORK TO CLEAR IT OUT. THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DECENT WITH A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION
UPSTREAM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE WEAKENING AND BE FOCUSED WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT MID LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BE
DIGGING IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPS UPSTAIRS.

SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE EXCITED ABOUT CONVECTION...WHILE THE
NAM ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE AREA DRY GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT.
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS. THE GFS IS LOOKING WET
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT 12Z SAT...THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHCY CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST ENTERING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THEN. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH 250 MB JET STREAK SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS STRONGER ON
THE NAM THAN THE GFS SATURDAY...AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT BETWEEN 21Z SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TIMING WITH THE FRONT
IS CORRECT...MOST OF THE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT IS A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE
NORTHWEST.

NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE THAN GFS...1300 TO 1700
J/KG VERSUS UP TO 1000 J/KG ON GFS. STILL...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 PLUS KNOTS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PORT WASHINGTON TO MONROE LINE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO KEEP SHOWERS
IN FORECAST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB
LINGERING MONDAY...BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS THEN TRY TO BRUSH THE AREA WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY TRY TO BRING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND DRY
ELSEWHERE. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE THIS FAR OUT. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIFT NORTH QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY. ONCE THESE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS STORMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 190719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS PRESENT ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ADJACENT
MONTANA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR... 1. PLENTY OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS...SOME OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. 2. PULLING MORE HUMID AIR
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON A 20-40 KT JET AT 925MB WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1-1.5
INCHES. FINALLY 3...DEVELOPING AN UNSEASONABLY WARM...CAPPED AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPS OF 18-24C AND 700MB
TEMPS OF 10-13C. OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXISTS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.5
INCH. A WARM FRONT SEPARATES THE DIVISION OF AIRMASSES OVER WESTERN
MN...WHICH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
FRONT HAS LED TO MID CLOUDS IN MN. NOTHING YET FALLING OUT OF
THESE...THOUGH.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. WHAT THIS DOES IS
HELP CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BIG PLUME OF WARM 700MB AND 850MB AIR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
STREAMS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...EFFECTIVELY PUTTING A NICE CAP IN
PLACE. PRIOR TO THIS CAP ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW DAYS AGO IT
APPEARED THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE ANYMORE WITH MOST MODELS SUGGESTING A DRY DAY
TODAY. HAVE STILL LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...DUE TO ACTIVITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA PROGGED
TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI. NOW THE 19.00Z GFS DOES PRODUCE
SOME PRECIP FROM EAU TO LSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE LONE MODEL OUT. SOUNDINGS TOO FROM THE GFS AT LSE
LOOK ODD FOR PRODUCING RAIN...HAVING JUST SOME SMALL LAYER OF
SATURATION BELOW THE CAP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE TIGHT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE DAKOTAS. WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-50 KT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND DAYTIME MIXING...WE COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-35 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST MN. THESE WOULD BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING...PERIODS OF SUN PLUS 925MB TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 16-20C BY 00Z...MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR/CLARK SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO MN AND NORTHERN
WI...DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SAT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DPVA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE CAP...AND FORCE SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. APPEARS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PARCELS BEING LIFTED BETWEEN 850-900MB...OR
ABOUT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND. CAPE LIFTED FROM THIS LEVEL RANGES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG WHILE THE 1-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 10-15 KT. THAT SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. IF FOR SOME REASON THE PARCELS CAN
GET ROOTED BELOW 1 KM...THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT...MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE. GIVEN THAT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE UP NEAR 40000 FT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND...WHICH
LOOKS MOST LIKELY SOMETIME IN THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING.
CONSIDERED RAISING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60...BUT BOTH THE
19.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW AND NCEP HIRES-ARW SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM
ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE. APPEARS THE LACK OF DECENT CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN 900-700MB IS THE CAUSE. ALL MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A WARM NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A BREEZY
WIND AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AFTER FROPA...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW STRATUS
DECK MAY FORM AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER
DOMINATES THE LONG TERM. THERE ARE A FEW TIME PERIODS TO FOCUS ON.

GENERAL MODELS CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO/OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL MAINTAINED SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THOUGH...AS WE WAIT FOR
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO FULLY MOVE IN. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK...AHEAD OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
DIVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POTENT NATURE
COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. A LOT OF MODELS
HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIMINISHING BEFORE IT
COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...OR MAYBE HOLDING ONTO IT FOR I-94.
SOME COLD POOL SHOWERS...ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 18-21C AT 00Z SUNDAY TO 11-
13C AT 18Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WHILE VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGING MARCHES
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR A
COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WITH IT AT THIS
TIME...AND IF ITS TRACK ENDS UP GOING THROUGH THE REGION OR STAYING
OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...FOR NOW THE FORECAST JUST HAS SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN A
LITTLE BIT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

BEYOND THURSDAY...GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY EXISTS THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 190433
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. STRATUS THAT FORMED UNDER THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HOLDING
TOUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT ERODING SLOWLY BUT SURELY ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH FOR
SOME MIXING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON VERY REFLECTIVE OF THE
AMOUNT OF STRATUS WITH NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THE MIDDLE 40S YET UNDER
THE CLOUD...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WEST OF THE RIVER IN
SUNSHINE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN...KEEPING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX STRATUS OUT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S THE MIDDLE 40S.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST ALONG JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WATERS OF NORTHERN MN ON FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO THE 13-21C RANGE. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO WESTERN WI. KEPT 20-50
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE ELEVATED NATURE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. NAM CAPE SEEMS A BIT HIGH DUE
TO OVER-FORECASTED DEW POINTS AROUND 70. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH 0-
3KM MUCAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE CAP HOLDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL/700-500MB LAPSE RATES.
NAM/GFS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE  35-45KT
RANGE...SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90 AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO STILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON EYE ON A SLIGHT SEVERE CHANCE AS CAPE
REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE BY 18Z ALONG WITH 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KT. SO...STILL A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY TO TOP OFF IN THE
70S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOWER 80 READINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 AS MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWING INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION MONDAY...HOLDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A STRETCH OF PLEASANT
EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S/LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT IN THE RIDGE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND WITH THE
INCREASE ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECTING TOO MUCH
MIXING TO ALLOW ANY FOG TO FORM. THE 19.00Z NAM IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG WITH THE WINDS ALOFT SO SHOULD HAVE ANY LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DISSIPATES
FRIDAY MORNING...THE MIXING WILL ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECT ANY MID
LEVEL SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR KRST
FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT KEEP KLSE DRY AT THIS POINT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING FOR KLSE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 190330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

BREEZY AND MILD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN COOLER AGAIN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACRS NOAM WL CONT A BIT LONGER...THEN
THE PATTERN WL IMMEDIATELY GO BACK INTO AN AMPLIFICATION PHASE...
WHICH WL PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES CONTINUES. THE MAIN WESTERLIES WL RECEDE NWD
INTO CANADA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLERCOASTER...WITH MAXES
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE MINS VARY
BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL. PCPN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD WL
DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...AND WL MOST
LIKELY END UP AOB NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS REMAINS SOLID OVER MUCH
OF WISCONSIN EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS
NORTHEAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW.
CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH RETURN
FLOW STRENGTHENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE LOW
STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE LAST.  IF AND WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD (MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN)...SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING AS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WINDS
SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE THEIR RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST...MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL END OF THAT VORT MAX MAY CREATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NE WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL GO WITH A RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FRI NGT AND CROSS THE
AREA SAT. LARGE SCALE UPR TROF WL BE AMPIFYING AS IT ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT ACRS THE AREA. SO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PCPN WL BE
DECENT. A BIT CONCERNED HOWEVER THAT THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FM THE
S IS BEING OVERESTIMATED BY THE GUIDANCE. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST
WITH POPS...WHICH BASICALLY MEANT HAVING LIKELY POPS IN THE N AND
CHC POPS IN THE S. LOW-LEVEL WINDS START TO VEER AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT ON SAT...CUTTING DOWN ON THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS BY SHOWING ONLY LIMITED PCPN
WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH THE BEST DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING TO OUR S AND E LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
SPC/S SWODY3 OUTLOOK WHICH INDICATED A 5 PCT CHC OF SVR OVER SERN
WI.

UPR SPEED MAX AND SECONDARY SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE AREA SAT NGT...
WITH SECONDARY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY DROPPING THROUGH ON SUN. THESE
FEATURES WL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHRA ALIVE...ESP ACRS THE N. WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE N IN BOTH PERIODS.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING TO OUR SW FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK WL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF QUIET AUTUMN WEATHER. TEMPS WL START OUT A LITTLE
COOL AND THEN MODERATE. THE DRY AIR WL ALLOW AFTN MAXES TO WARM TO
ABV NORMAL LEVELS...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS DROP TO AOB NORMAL. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE ABV MENTIONED TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER MOST PLACES. HOWEVER PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 190330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

BREEZY AND MILD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN COOLER AGAIN FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACRS NOAM WL CONT A BIT LONGER...THEN
THE PATTERN WL IMMEDIATELY GO BACK INTO AN AMPLIFICATION PHASE...
WHICH WL PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES CONTINUES. THE MAIN WESTERLIES WL RECEDE NWD
INTO CANADA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WL BE ON SOMEWHAT OF A ROLLERCOASTER...WITH MAXES
MAINLY VARYING BETWEEN NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE MINS VARY
BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL. PCPN TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD WL
DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT FALLS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...AND WL MOST
LIKELY END UP AOB NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LAST
NIGHTS COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS REMAINS SOLID OVER MUCH
OF WISCONSIN EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO RETURN
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS
NORTHEAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHEAST
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW.
CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH RETURN
FLOW STRENGTHENING...LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE LOW
STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD SEE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE LAST.  IF AND WHERE SKIES DO CLEAR
FOR A PERIOD (MOST LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN)...SOME POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPING AS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION AND WINDS
SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE THEIR RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST...MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR.  THE TAIL END OF THAT VORT MAX MAY CREATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NE WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL GO WITH A RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FRI NGT AND CROSS THE
AREA SAT. LARGE SCALE UPR TROF WL BE AMPIFYING AS IT ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT ACRS THE AREA. SO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PCPN WL BE
DECENT. A BIT CONCERNED HOWEVER THAT THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FM THE
S IS BEING OVERESTIMATED BY THE GUIDANCE. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST
WITH POPS...WHICH BASICALLY MEANT HAVING LIKELY POPS IN THE N AND
CHC POPS IN THE S. LOW-LEVEL WINDS START TO VEER AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT ON SAT...CUTTING DOWN ON THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS BY SHOWING ONLY LIMITED PCPN
WITH THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH THE BEST DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING TO OUR S AND E LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ALSO FITS WITH
SPC/S SWODY3 OUTLOOK WHICH INDICATED A 5 PCT CHC OF SVR OVER SERN
WI.

UPR SPEED MAX AND SECONDARY SHRTWV WL DIG ACRS THE AREA SAT NGT...
WITH SECONDARY SFC BOUNDARY LIKELY DROPPING THROUGH ON SUN. THESE
FEATURES WL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHRA ALIVE...ESP ACRS THE N. WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE N IN BOTH PERIODS.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH SFC HIGH
PASSING TO OUR SW FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK WL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF QUIET AUTUMN WEATHER. TEMPS WL START OUT A LITTLE
COOL AND THEN MODERATE. THE DRY AIR WL ALLOW AFTN MAXES TO WARM TO
ABV NORMAL LEVELS...WHILE NIGHT TIME LOWS DROP TO AOB NORMAL. MADE
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS TO BETTER
DEPICT THE ABV MENTIONED TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER MOST PLACES. HOWEVER PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER MOST LOCATIONS STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 190238
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHEN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT. MOIST LIGHT ELY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT AND
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW INVERSION OF 1-2K FEET. TAMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING
FROM KMKE AT 0127Z SHOWED LIGHT WINDS BLO 10KTS UP TO INVERSION AT
2K FEET. THINK A MIX OF STRATUS AND FOG WL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
POSSIBLE THAT SMALL AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 1K FEET OVER SE WI MAY
EXPAND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG WL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DENSE BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE STRATUS AND MIXY WINDS BLO
INVERSION TO ADD DENSE FOG TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER
BEEFED UP PATCHY/AREA WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS
MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BLEND OF STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT
BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT. VSBYS LIKELY TO DROP TO
IFR OR LOWER MOST LOCATIONS. SEE ABOVE UPDATE FOR MORE SPECIFICS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MORNING
FRIDAY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AND FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR SHORE MARINE ZONES. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GTLAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTH WIND GUSTS
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS ON FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLOUDS QUICKLY ERODED AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. THE ONLY
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND YET THROUGH 330 PM ARE IN THE FAR EAST. EXPECT
THESE TO SCATTER OUT BY EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG
ONCE AGAIN.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND
VEER TO THE SOUTH MIDDAY. GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SKIES
WILL BEGIN CLEAR IN THE MORNING AND THEN PLAN ON INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STEADY 925-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORCING WITH
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STRONGEST TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH...THEN WEAKENS AS 850 MB WINDS HEEL OVER AND
LOWER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR
NORTH WHERE THERE IS A WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE MAX AS FLOW IS CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL OVER NOSE OF THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WITH A FEW UPPER
50S IN THE EAST INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT
AND A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IS STRONGEST. TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S WITH MID-60S DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PREDICATED ON CIN DIMINISHING BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR RISES TO 30-40 KTS AT
THIS TIME WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS PER
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PCPN PUSH SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH A SECOND POCKET OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING NRN WI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF POTENT VORT MAXES THAT DIG THE
500 MB TROUGH DEEPER INTO THE STATE. MODELS DIFFER WITH SRN EXTENT
OF FORCING WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH AND A WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN PCPN CHANCES. WILL FOLLOW A
BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NRN COUNTIES
AND FAR EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER SUNDAY. CLOUDS
AND 850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE BRINGS LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S...WITH 925 MB TEMPS YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S SW
AND UPPER 60S IN THE NE.

SKIES CLEAR AND PCPN CHANCES END AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
SUNDAY NIGHT....WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY THE GFS SHOWING A
WEAK AND DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND
MID-UPR 40S FOR LOWS...SLOWLY WARMING TO AROUND 50 FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IFR CLOUDS ARE WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT OVER FAR EASTERN
WI/LAKESHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG...MAINLY THE MVFR VARIETY.

LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO
28 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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