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000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04



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000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230222
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. ALSO WL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE EAST.

POSSIBLE A FEW -SHRA MAY AFFECT WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
WI. HOWEVER BEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. NO REASON TO ALTER THU
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT KENW AND KUES LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SFC DEWPTS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WI WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRA TO TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY. CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD DURING AND AFTER
-SHRA DUE TO MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 221950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS AT KRST AND
16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING
THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z.
THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221942
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 221513
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 221125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221111
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL BE FALLING BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KARX 220852
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 220832
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 220814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 220452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOME CONCERN FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE 22.00Z
NAM AND 22.03Z RAP SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE BUT
SUGGEST THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. THE FLAG HERE AT THE OFFICE IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE MODEL WINDS AND A BIT
OF A HAZE LAYER APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP OVER THE CITY. AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY INCREASING WHICH SHOULD
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AND WILL INCLUDE A
BCFG TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. THE GRADIENT SHOULD
PRODUCE DECENT SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WITH GOOD
MIXING...GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR AT KRST. AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING...SHOULD START TO SEE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVE FOR A VFR CEILING TO FORM AT
KRST. THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 220256
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
956 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 220225
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MAY EXPERIENCE A BLEND OF FROST AND FREEZING FOG LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY DEPOSIT THIN ICE COATING ON SUSCEPTIBLE
PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS. WL NEED TO WATCH PAVEMENT TEMPS CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED MOST LOCATIONS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THINKING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL
GO INTO FROST DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE AND EXPIRE
AT 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SHORE AND ON
OFFSHORE VESSELS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL 5 FEET AT THE BUOY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 220225
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MAY EXPERIENCE A BLEND OF FROST AND FREEZING FOG LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY DEPOSIT THIN ICE COATING ON SUSCEPTIBLE
PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS. WL NEED TO WATCH PAVEMENT TEMPS CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED MOST LOCATIONS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THINKING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL
GO INTO FROST DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE AND EXPIRE
AT 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SHORE AND ON
OFFSHORE VESSELS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL 5 FEET AT THE BUOY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 212317
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING ENOUGH MIXING TO
CREATE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KRST FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN AND
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 212231
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KARX 211955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE LAST CHUNK OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS QUICKLY BEEN
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN GET TONIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS WITH WHETHER ANY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL IN A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. 21.12Z NAM/GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
850-750MB THOUGH ANY LIFT IS VERY WEAK AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH IN WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL FORM...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE TWO MAIN STORIES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE WARMUP COMING THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME RAIN THAT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE QUESTION IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL
LAST/ACCUMULATE. BEYOND THE INITIAL 850-750MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE LIFT COMES IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND ALONG A
700-500MB TROUGH. THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS THERE AS WELL IN THE
MID LEVELS...BUT THE BETTER PV ADVECTION APPEARS TO TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 21.12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST WITH ITS LIFT SINCE IT BREAKS OFF A PIECE OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AND PROPAGATES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
GUIDANCE. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UNDER A
HALF INCH OF QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM SINCE THE MOISTURE FEED IS IN
THIS NARROW CHANNEL. THE MAIN TRENDS WITH THE 21.12Z GUIDANCE IS
TO SPEED UP THE CLEARING OF THE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
21.12Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE MAIN REASON THAT THERE EVEN ARE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LEFT IN THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION KICK IN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT
925/850MB ARE NOT T00 HIGH AT +1 TO +2...BUT STILL HELP TO SIGNAL
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
KEEPING FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AND SHOULD BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS AS A SURFACE LOW RUNS UP
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
SOME TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF BUT
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS SIMILAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 211955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT OR CALM
WINDS. HAVE PATCHY FOG FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z SINCE THERE WAS SOME IN
MINNESOTA UNDER THE HIGH LATE LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. 12Z
NAM MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM SO EITHER SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE OR
WENT WITH THE COLDER 12Z GFS MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A LITTLE
WARMER FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SO THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WEAK SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY AT INLAND LOCATIONS...HIGHS NEAR
THE LAKE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PCPN TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BAND (PWATS OF 1+ INCH)
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM LATE WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING A LITTLE TO MATCH THE LATEST MODEL CONCENSUS...
AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ON THU AND THU EVG.

WNW ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NGT...
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. DRY CONDIITONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER C/NE WI...WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S CONTINUING.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVG THROUGH WI. A
SECOND SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW MOVG BOUNDARY ON MON NGT
OR TUESDAY...AS THE SHARPENING UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
BRINGS A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH NE WI ON TUES MORNING. GIVEN
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PERIOD...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE PREFERRED MODEL BLEND FOR POPS...WITH ONLY SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR NOW. MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MUCH COOLER AIR IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1258 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF AREA HAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BUT DRY AIR MAKING ITS
WAY INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS CAUSING CLOUDS TO BREAK
UP. BY 1730Z MVFR CIGS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME CIGS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN BUT THEY WERE MOSTLY LOW END VFR. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM
AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 4F OR
MORE...BUT WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE ENDED UP WITH PATCHY
FOG SINCE IT FORMED AT SOME LOCATIONS IN MINNESOTA THAT WERE UNDER
THE HIGH. SHOULD JUST BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 211738
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES PRODUCING AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION  TONIGHT AT KLSE...WITH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
STAYING IN THE 13 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND
SHOULD INHIBIT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCT
VALLEY STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE NIGH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AT KRST INTO THE 8 TO 12 KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KMKX 211636 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD INFLUENCE
SEEN...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES. 1000/850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS AND AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING DURING THE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SPOTS.

THERE IS SOME DRY AIR MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON...ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS TAF SITES. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME BROKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT MADISON AS WELL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME
EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 211130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STILL WATCHING A MVFR DECK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THESE
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MOVE WEST TOWARD KLSE...BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THEY WILL MAKE IT THERE OR NOT.
BESIDES THESE CLOUDS...THERE IS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WAS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD A SCATTERED
300 FOOT INTO THE KLSE TAF.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHETHER VALLEY FOG
WILL IMPACT KLSE OR NOT. THE NAM SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER IT ALSO HAS 10 TO 20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE OF STRATUS DECK. WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTIES...JUST KEPT THE TAF CLEAN FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 211112
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VERY DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATO-CU TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SHORELINE.  THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KARX 210819
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 210819
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PER LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO WRAP STRATUS
DECK OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST FOG
PRODUCT SATELLITE. LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S...PER
LATEST METARS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL IN RIVER VALLEYS.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR
SKIES...AN INVERSION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG TO FORM IN RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW OVER 10 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AT AND ABOVE
200 FEET. THIS STRONG OF WIND WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NEXT CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION...AS THE 21.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE ENOUGH QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/NAM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND A
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON NOSE OF WEAK 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE 21.00Z NAM SHOWS 0-6KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
INSTABILITY VERY WEAK...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED ON
AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACTS ON HOW FAR NORTH
WARMER AIRMASS PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z MONDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE 21.00Z GFS/ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BOTH THE MODELS INDICATE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO WARRANT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MOSTLY VFR BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WI...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING SOME
ERODING STARTING ON THE WESTERN EDGES. AT THE MOMENT...THE BACKEDGE
REMAINS JUST EAST/NORTH OF KLSE. 850-700 MB WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN THE CLOUDS
FROM NORTHERN WI. RAP/NAM 850 MB RH FIELDS ERODE/MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGER SOME 925 MB RH. GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE
WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR KLSE RIGHT NOW...KEEPING THE CLOUD
SHIELD JUST ON THE DOORSTEP. IF IT WOULD MOVE IN...CIGS LOOK VFR
NEAR 4KFT AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY MORE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SOME INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT KRST
BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OVERNIGHTS-MORNINGS
BRINGS TO QUESTION IF FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES LOOK SMALL. RAP SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRING
JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT...12+ KTS AT 200 FT.
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION AT KLSE. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS
SIMILAR FOR TUE NIGHT...KEEPING 10+ KTS OF WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.
IF A DEEPER LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE REALIZED...THE FG THREAT
INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS RUNNING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBO OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THERMAL TROUGHING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN.  AREA OBS ARE
STILL REPORTING SPOTTY SPRINKLES.  FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR IS
WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS OVER THE CENTRAL OF THE CONTINENT WHICH IS
LEADING TO CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPS.

TODAY...NOT AN EASY CLOUD FORECAST TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO...BUT 925MB THERMAL TROUGHING AND
NORTH TO NNE FLOW CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OVER N-C AND MOST OF EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE LAKESHORE WHERE NNE WINDS WILL KEEP
LAKE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY...WITH
PWATS UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHOULD HAVE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLDEST GUIDANCE.  LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN.  MAINLY MID 20S TO
LOW 30S EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.  A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT MUCH MIXING.  SO EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS GETS DAMPENED
AND PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TOWARDS WISCONSIN
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE A WAVE MOVES TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE MODEST AND AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. AFTER THAT UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BKN-OVC CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING RANGED FROM MVFR LEVELS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO A LOWER END VFR CIG OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A DECREASING CLOUD AREA WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MY
BEGIN TO REACH FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING AROUND 07Z.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONTINUED FEED OF DRIER AIR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING MVFR OR LOW
VFR CIGS TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN OR EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




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