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000
FXUS63 KARX 180443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
STARTS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE FORCING STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AT KRST FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. KEPT KLSE DRY AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 19.06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 180443
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
STARTS TO INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE FORCING STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. HAVE ADDED A VCSH FOR LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AT KRST FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. KEPT KLSE DRY AS IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 19.06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 180400
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 180400
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180400
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180400
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THICKENING MID CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS



000
FXUS63 KARX 172310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 172310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 172310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 172310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBILITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD
AIR JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN.
GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOOK FOR MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AT KRST AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH AHEAD
OF A STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...MW




000
FXUS63 KGRB 172308
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 172308
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 172308
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 172308
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 172308
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI







000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 172024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 172024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 172024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD AND VERY DRY DAY TOMORROW...THEN SOME RAIN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH COOLER
NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
BETWEEN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE FLOW. A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW WAS
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. PHASING OF THE STREAMS WL GRADUALLY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE NRN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND THE
4 CORNERS SYSTEMS BEGINS TO SHIFT E. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER ERN NOAM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
AS THE FLOW CONSOLIDATES AND THE WRN UPR LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPR TROF GETS LOCKED IN OVER THE AREA BY THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING
PATTERN. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON WHAT
OCCURS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE WRN UPR LOW CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST GUESS IS THAT THEY WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. TODAY WAS DRY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND FINE FUELS ARE QUITE DRY. COORDINATED WITH THE DNR AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND JUST HEADLINE THE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THEY ARE STILL TALKING TO LAND MANAGERS AND A WATCH
IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
BUT...THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WITH THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM/PHASING STREAMS. MODELS
CONTINUE SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...A TREND WITH
OFTEN OCCURS WITH SUCH SYSTEMS. MANY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ONE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD FM CANADA...ANOTHER FARTHER E WITH CYCLONE
GENERATED BY EJECTING SHRTWV...WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN BETWEEN.
THIS SCENARIO IS REASONABLE...BUT THE QUESTION IS THE LOCATION OF
THE MAXES AND MINS...AND STILL DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THOSE. SO THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE
TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE
PART OF THE FCST AREA. STILL SUSPECT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY
GOOD PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...WITH MOST OF THE AREA ENDING UP WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.

LINGERED LIKELY POPS INTO MONDAY SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
FIRST BE CLEARING THE AREA AT THAT TIME. COOL WEATHER WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED
ADEQUATELY HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST
INITIALIZATION GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 171952
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBLITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD AIR
JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WE
COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN. GFS IS MOST
BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 171952
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS COMING IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCLUDING
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL SATURDAY...AND ONSET OF RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND LAX WIND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. BUT THINGS WILL
CHANGE WITH LARGE CLOSED SYSTEM FILLING AND EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DAY OF WARM
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT THAT WILL NOT REALLY ARRIVE EN MASS UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY LOW DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF WI. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

MOISTURE WILL FIGHT THE DRY AIR INITIALLY...BUT EVENTUALLY THE
SATURATION WILL WIN OUT AND SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST.
SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE
CLOSED SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS
ARE DIFFERENT IN HOW THIS PHASING AND THE FORCING WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA IN THE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETIC
AREAS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE TOO EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RAIN AREA FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY. BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A VERY BLUSTERY DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
LIFT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND COLD SHOWERS ARE
A POSSIBLITY. WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING PLENTY OF COLD AIR
JUST OFF THE DECK...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WE
COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MIXED IN. GFS IS MOST
BULLISH WITH THE PRECIP RISK.

COLD AIR INVADES BY TUESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
-2 TO -4 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS SLACKEN WE COULD HAVE A RISK FOR SOME FROST. MORE ON THAT AS
WE GET CLOSER. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO STILL COULD HAVE SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP ISSUES. BEYOND THAT IT LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT IT WILL STAY
COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGHER FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED DRY AIR FEED ON EASTERLY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS DOWN AROUND 20 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE...ONLY REACHING THE 65-70
RANGE...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. BUT WITH THE PRIMARY FUEL CONCERN BEING GRASS WHICH
DRIES QUICKLY AND BURNS EASILY...WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT THESE
CRITERIA ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPORTANT FOR FIRE POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...MW




000
FXUS63 KGRB 171808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171808
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND/SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND BECOME GUSTY
FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KMKX 171717 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1217 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE WILL MAKE FOR A
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 70S
INLAND...AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING HIGHS EAST OF
APPROX A FOND DU LAC TO DELEVAN LINE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ENDED UP
SPEEDING UP THE LAKE BREEZE...AND HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN AM TEMP TRENDS.

AFTER A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT TO SEE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TO SLIP DOWN THE LAKE ON SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVERAGE MAY INCREASE. AT THIS POINT ITS TOUGH
TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD THE CLOUDS WILL BE. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RH
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS THIS
TIME OF YEAR CAN BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH THEM.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

PRIMARY POINTS OF CONCERN ARE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP DOWN THE LAKE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS THE LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT WELL INLAND...TO APPROX A FOND DU LAC TO DELEVAN
LINE...BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THE LAKE BREEZE GETS...AND THEREFORE THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE LAKE BREEZE REACHES THE TAF SITES IS NOT
CERTAIN. SATURDAY MORNING...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RH FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH THEM SO
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CIGS AT THE LAKESHORE SITES.
AGAIN...THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...AND AT THIS POINT ITS TOUGH
TO SAY IF WE GET CLOUDS. IF WE DO CLOUD UP...LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
[] KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA OF []
UBAR/S WILL ALSO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND
POINTS WEST. WHAT ABOUT THE ECMWF AND GFS?

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH A
SHEARED RIBBON OF POSIVITVE VORITICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL
WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVEATED INSTABILITY OF
NEARLY 100 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS SSYTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW WHAT?

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY. THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES OF []. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE
IN THE [] TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHANCES OF RAIN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY?

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS GOING DRY
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...99



000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 171602
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CIGS...
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SAT
MORNING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.

WINDS...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL SWING
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION SAT...ALONG WITH INCREASES INTO
THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

WX/VSBY...
NO IMPACTS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN WHEN SHRA/TS WILL BE
BECOME LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. CLOUDS TODAY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SCT 6K-8K FT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WINDS
TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. CLOUDS TODAY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SCT 6K-8K FT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WINDS
TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. CLOUDS TODAY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SCT 6K-8K FT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WINDS
TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS. CLOUDS TODAY GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE SCT 6K-8K FT...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WINDS
TODAY/TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WETENKAMP
LONG TERM......WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 171104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171104
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAVE CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170900
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AREAS OF BROKEN MID-CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CLEAR SKIES EXIST BEHIND
THIS FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.  FORECAST CONCERNS
INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SATURDAY.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.  WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND
800MB...HOWEVER...THAT WILL TURN INTO A CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING
OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
SEE AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DROP
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 20 TO 25 PCT RANGE.  HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS BASED ON 925MB TEMPS
ON THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM AND ECMWF...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.  TEMPS TO MAX OUT TO NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE
WARM SPOTS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING WHILE A SECONDARY AND MORE
POTENT FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO 20 OR 25
MPH.  TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH
IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (NAM 850-700MB RH FALLS TO 2 PCT!).  THOUGH
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LOW...SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PCT WILL STILL OCCUR THOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HUMIDITIES TO FALL LOWER THAN
THIS IF TAPPING OCCURS INTO THIS BONE DRY AIR ALOFT.  HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

500MB OPEN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 500MB LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN CANADA.

MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ARRIVAL THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY OR LOW END CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY DEPENDING ON QUICK THE STEADIER RAINS
ARRIVE. IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. COUNTING ON SOME DRY ON BACKSIDE OF THE
RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.

OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE DAY FOR EACH PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...UPPER LOW MAY BE
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES SEEMED REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE IN SOME PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 170825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A VERY WEAK FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND IT REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
VERY LOW AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...THAT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WON/T BE VERY
STRONG AND WILL LIMIT IT/S USUAL COOLING INFLUENCE. QUIET THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S NEAR THE LAKE.

THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY DELAY
THE ADVANCE OF MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEING DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THIS DRY FLOW TENDS TO
BEAT BACK ADVANCING MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWING WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
TO THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN THE
SURFACE LOW...AGAIN WITH VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS. THERE ARE
VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK SUNDAY.

AIR COLUMN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SLOW MOISTENING
SUNDAY...SATURATING LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CONTINUED
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. IT SHIFTS SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE OPENING AND SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.

SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF WITH LOW AND WARM FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS IS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...VERSUS THE ECMWF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL FLOW IS WEAK
WITH WINDS BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT A NORTHEAST TO EAST LAKE BREEZE TO
KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KMKE AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KUES
AND KENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 170824
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 170824
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE ON TEMPERATURES. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY THEN ONTO RAIN
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MEANWHILE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY CLIMBING WELL INTO
THE 70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH AS
THE THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE HIGH WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION....ESPECIALLY  IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 MPH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL
TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. NOW TO THE
WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES
LIFTING NORTH AND MERGES WITH A NORTHERN  STREAM TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLAN ON MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND HELP TO EASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE
THICKENING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHEAST
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 170436
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 170436
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH SOME PERIODS OF BROKEN
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 170348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY MORNING...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A WEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 MPH
WHILE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KARX 162303
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BROKEN AND THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH
CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K FOOT RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 162303
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER EXPECTED. AXIS OF MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF BROKEN AND THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH
CEILINGS IN THE 5K-10K FOOT RANGE. WITH A VERY BAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 162242
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A 5 TO 10 MPH WEST WIND BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 162242
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
542 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THE AIR MASS IS DRY...EXPECT A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST WILL MARK THE FRONTS PASSAGE. LATER
FRIDAY...DEEP MIXING MAY PRODUCE A 5 TO 10 MPH WEST WIND BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 162032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 162032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 161955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 161955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 161955
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONTINUED MILD AND DRY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHOWERY AND
TURNING COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS SPLIT...WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM
ACRS CANADA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IS LOCATED ACRS THE
CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE CURRENT PATTERN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THEN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM STARTS TO AMPLIFY...THE
SEPARATE BRANCHES WILL BEGIN TO PHASE BACK TOGETHER. THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A
NEAR BLOCKING REGIME WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO...AND A DEEP NEGATIVE ANOMALY TO THE SSE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE DRY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE POSITION.
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WET AND COOLER WEATHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT INTO THE REGION AND BEGIN TO MERGE
BACK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
TROF DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...IN FAR
EASTERN WISCONSIN MOVED NORTHEAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWED SOME ECHOES MOVING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY BUT THE AIR WAS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F. THERE WERE NO REPORTS
OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN REPORT ANY CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN. MODELS INDICATED SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ARID DAY
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT MODELS DID NOT HAVE ANY QPF TONIGHT AND
HAD LITTLE OR NOTHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER ON FRIDAY AT
MOST LOCATIONS SO HIGHS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ONE FINAL DRY DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SEWD TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH
WL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ALOFT FLOWING BACK WWD INTO THE
REGION...AND MIXING INTO THE DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES.

THE MAIN FCST ISSUES THEN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW...AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE FEATURE. THE NAM LOOKS TOO FAST
BRUSHING PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA ALREADY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR LEFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE RECEDING
HIGH. TIMING OF THE MAIN PRECIP CHANCE WITH THE SYSTEM STILL NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
SUNDAY IN THE WEST AND SUN AFTN/NIGHT IN THE EAST. MODEL QPFS ARE
NOT TOO GREAT...BUT SEEM A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HEADING ACRS THE RGN.

A MUCH COOLER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
SOME SCT SHOWERS AT TIMES...THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER
LIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMED ADEQUATELY
HANDLED BY THE BROAD-BASED EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION
GRIDS...SO NO SIG CHANGES WERE NEEDED.



SKOWRONSKI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KARX 161926
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS
THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....CC



000
FXUS63 KARX 161926
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS
THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....CC



000
FXUS63 KARX 161926
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS
THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....CC



000
FXUS63 KARX 161926
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS
CAUGHT UP IN A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SUN. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
LEAD THE SYSTEM INTO REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING HOLDING TO THE NORTH. AT THE SFC...SOME HINTS OF A WARM
FRONT TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY LINKS
THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND WILL BE A MAIN PLAYER IN THE PCPN
CHANCES.

ON SAT...A 925-850 MB WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. A LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THIS LIFT TO BATTLE...PER
TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN/IA BY 12Z
SUNDAY. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF
850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PUSH OF 925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF IT. SATURATION IS THERE...AND SO SHOULD BE AREAS OF
SHOWERS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...BUT AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SO
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY - MOSTLY SOUTH.

THE PCPN/CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW WAVES. FIRST WOULD BE THE WARM
AIR ADVECTIVE/WARM FRONT BAND ON SATURDAY...WITH ITS SATURATION
ISSUES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SECOND WILL COME SAT
NIGHT/SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD COULD BE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD MISS THE FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS TRENDING ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. MAIN AREAS OF RAIN COULD BYPASS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH. SOMETHING
TO WATCH. WILL KEEP CHANCES HIGH WITH AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU APR
16 2015

PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE PCPN THIS
WEEKEND CLOSES OFF ITS PARENT LOW...WHICH THEN WOBBLES/REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL FUNNEL COLDER
AIR SOUTHWARD...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. BITS OF ENERGY WILL ORBIT THE LOW...BRINGING LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS
THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

MIN RH/S SLATED TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENTS SAT AFTERNOON. COUPLED
WITH WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH AND ALREADY DRY FUELS...FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME ELEVATED. RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AIR ALSO MOVING IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...HELPING TO ABATE THE ELEVATED CONCERNS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....CC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 161750
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 161750
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161750
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 161750
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
A CLOUD DECK BELOW 1KFT MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 17Z. RADAR SHOWED SOME
ECHOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRIFTING TO
THE EAST BUT THEY WERE SCATTERED...SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE IN EXCESS OF 30F...AND MOST OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THAT PART OF THE STATE DID NOT EVEN INDICATE ANY CLOUDS. MODEL
TIME SECTIONS SHOWED A MOIST LAYER OVERNIGHT IN THE 5KFT-10KFT
RANGE...WITH DECREASING RH IN THAT LAYER AROUND 12Z. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT...SO WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KARX 161708
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE BELOW 10 KNOTS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS63 KARX 161708
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE BELOW 10 KNOTS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...CC




000
FXUS63 KARX 161708
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7K FEET. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE BELOW 10 KNOTS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...CC



000
FXUS63 KARX 161141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 17.12Z...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT GREATER CLOUD COVER THAN DAYS PAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT AGL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KRST WILL
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHILE KLSE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH OR BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 161141
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 17.12Z...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT GREATER CLOUD COVER THAN DAYS PAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT AGL. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KRST WILL
THEN SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHILE KLSE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH OR BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 161106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH MTW THIS MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...A BROKEN 6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH MTW THIS MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...A BROKEN 6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH MTW THIS MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...A BROKEN 6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH MTW THIS MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...A BROKEN 6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 161106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL APPROACH MTW THIS MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OTHERWISE...A BROKEN 6KFT CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KARX 160844 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 160844 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 160844 CCA
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 160843
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 160843
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH KENTUCKY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
POPPING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MN...BUT MOST OF THESE WERE
EVAPORATING DUE TO VERY DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...QUITE A BIT OF HIGH-
BASED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS MN INTO NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER 50S
UNDER THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

FOR TODAY...THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST...
EXITING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALLOWS DEFAULT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
OVERALL. 925MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE SOME 2-3C HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY...SO LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY/QUIET
CONDITIONS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 16-18C RANGE UNDER THE RIDGE...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE RANGING FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THAT CLOSED LOW PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD
THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S. OF NOTE...WILL
SEE A RATHER DRY EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WI AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-
30 PERCENT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED FIRE CONCERN...SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES PHASED WITH A TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 50S..TO PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

THE MAIN TROUGH THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO A CLOSED LOW AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ON/OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE...FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S/LOWER 50S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE ORIENTED EAST/WEST NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VERY BAGGY THURSDAY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENOUGH OF A MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR SOME PERIODS
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(FOR SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

WILL BE LOOKING AT A POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN IN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY. DRY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO CANADA/GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLOWING AT 10-20 MPH...GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH. IF DRIER AIR IS
REALIZED...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH MORE CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KMKX 160828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH...TIED TO A
DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP STILL HAS A
CHANCE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST WI COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 AM
THIS MORNING. IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST OF
MADISON...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO YESTERDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE AGAIN... BUT NOT BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 60S. INLAND...
925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS AND NAM INTRODUCE QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE FRI NIGHT...
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM
THE LAKE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND 60S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 70 WELL INLAND IF THE COLD
FRONT GETS DELAYED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO WI SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND
LEADING SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW
THE COLDER MODEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S. THAT COLD UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLIP THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH IT.
THOSE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
CLEARING RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMSN WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AS THE MVFR CIGS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 160828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH...TIED TO A
DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP STILL HAS A
CHANCE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST WI COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 AM
THIS MORNING. IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST OF
MADISON...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO YESTERDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE AGAIN... BUT NOT BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 60S. INLAND...
925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS AND NAM INTRODUCE QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE FRI NIGHT...
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM
THE LAKE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND 60S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 70 WELL INLAND IF THE COLD
FRONT GETS DELAYED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO WI SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND
LEADING SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW
THE COLDER MODEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S. THAT COLD UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLIP THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH IT.
THOSE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
CLEARING RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMSN WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AS THE MVFR CIGS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 160757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT EAST WIND AT
THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING
VARIABLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY VIRGA MAY FALL FROM A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 160757
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
HOLD ON ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO RECOVER
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL TRYING TO PUSH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER.  THE BONE DRY AIRMASS AND VEERING
FLOW IS NOT HELPING THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE A WESTWARD JAUNT...AND THE
LATEST MESOMODELS KEEP THESE SHOWERS EAST OF THE MANITOWOC SHORELINE
EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE IL/IN BORDER WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING AND THEN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FLATTENS.  850MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY VEER THIS
MORNING WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
GIVE THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN A SUBTLE
PUSH TO THE EAST. SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST IN TACT...BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS 5K-6KFT
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL DECK OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE...A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MIXING WILL NOT BE AS GOOD TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...BUT
STILL LOWERED DEWPOINTS SINCE THINK WILL STILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
SOME OF THE BONE DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT...HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES COULD FALL
BETWEEN 20-25 PCT.  FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER
TODAY...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE PROCESS.  SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. WITH THE
THINNING CLOUDS...DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD
LAYER FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  MAY SEE
SOME CU DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD SEE AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR...THAT
WILL DROP HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND RAISED THEM INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN FEATURE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE 20
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AS 500MB TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. QUIET A
SPREAD IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE WRF MODELS WAS QUICKEST...ALREADY BRINGING RAIN ON
SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL WAS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHILE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL WERE THE SLOWEST
SOLUTION WITH RAIN ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION FOR THE MEANTIME DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN. DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN BOOSTED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON
SUNDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE 500MB
SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH PERIOD...
ALONG WITH A LITTLE SNOW LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS WISCONSIN! TEMPERATURES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT EAST WIND AT
THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING
VARIABLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY VIRGA MAY FALL FROM A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






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