000
FXUS63 KMKX 232026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT.  DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS.  GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.

BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE.  WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM.

$$

VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK

000
FXUS63 KARX 232015
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE FROST TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRODUCING GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR
EAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM ARE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...THE
23.12Z GFS/NAM BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS
LOW...BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THESE AREAS AND FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. HAVE EXPANDED
FROST ADVISORY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.

NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF AREA AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TOO HOW FAR EAST SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT MOVES...
WILL DETERMINE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA TO TRACK INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 925-850MB
LAYER AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LESS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY.

THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-500
J/KG MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY WEST OF
FORECAST AREA AND NO SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
FLATTENING RIDGE AND PUSHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE AREA...
WHEREAS THE 23.12Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND PLACES SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASED ON THESE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 23.12Z MODELS. FOR
NOW... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...AS
THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXCEPT FOR
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
OUT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION.......SHEA

000
FXUS63 KGRB 231941
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.

ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......WOLF

000
FXUS63 KARX 231755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.

FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXCEPT FOR
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
OUT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....SHEA

000
FXUS63 KGRB 231704
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.

SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.

THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......WOLF

000
FXUS63 KMKX 231557
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED ACRS SC WI. SE WI WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS
LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING TODAY. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HIGHEST
WINDS AT EASTERN TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS
TONIGHT EASING THE WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKIES OFF. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.

FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KARX 231121
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.

FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTHEAST
HAVING CLEARED KRST ALREADY. THEY WILL BE PAST KLSE SHORTLY AS
WELL...BUT COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD AROUND
12Z...BUT THIS WILL BE TOO SHORT TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR AND WILL
JUST CARRY A SCATTERED DECK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE GRADIENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE INCOMING HIGH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
RELAX THE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

INCLUDED MARINE SECTION

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.

FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KGRB 230849
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.

NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.

SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.

THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

ONCE LOW CLDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.

FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KARX 230758
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.

FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END ALONG WITH THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOWN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH. WHERE
THE RAIN ENDS IS WHERE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 6Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STAY UP IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH

000
FXUS63 KARX 230446
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.

AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END ALONG WITH THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOWN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH. WHERE
THE RAIN ENDS IS WHERE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 6Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STAY UP IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH

000
FXUS63 KGRB 230433
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1133 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PESKY
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION SLOWLY WANING
AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UPSTREAM. GOING SHORT-TERM FORECAST STILL
LOOKING ON TRACK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY FROM GREEN BAY SOUTH TO
OSHKOSH.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA  LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.

DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SWEEP NW-SE ACRS
THE AREA LATE TNGT AND THU MORNING AS THE RAIN-PRODUCING CYCLONE
DEPARTS THE AREA TO THE E AND IS REPLACED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JS
MARINE.........WOLF

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230305
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...

THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WINDSHIFT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MINERAL POINT TO JANESVILLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LOSS OF HEATING THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE SO MAINLY MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IFR/LIFR CIGS MAINLY NORTH A A BOUNDARY FROM MINERAL POINT TO
JANESVILLE. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH THE MOIST NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING THE IFR/LIFR SOUTH.

EXPECT DRYING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.

MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS

000
FXUS63 KGRB 230204
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
904 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH PESKY
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION SLOWLY WANING
AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES UPSTREAM. GOING SHORT-TERM FORECAST STILL
LOOKING ON TRACK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH MAINLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY FROM GREEN BAY SOUTH TO
OSHKOSH.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA  LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.

DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AREA OF IFR CIGS AND BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT SURGE OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WILL WORK TO GRAUDUALLY ERODE
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SUPPORT THIS AS PRECIPTATION AREA
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
FROM GREEN BAY...WEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS AND PUSHES
PRECIPTATION AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 10Z OR
SO. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDTIONS TO FOLLOW AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPCETED FROM GRB SOUTHWEST TO ATW AND OSH BY 12Z.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
MARINE.........WOLF

000
FXUS63 KGRB 230016
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
716 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA  LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.

DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SLOW MOVING AREA OF IFR CIGS AND BROKEN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT SURGE OF DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE...WILL WORK TO GRAUDUALLY ERODE
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

RADAR TRENDS LAST COUPLE HOURS SUPPORT THIS AS PRECIPTATION AREA
HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
FROM GREEN BAY...WEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR FORECAST
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS AND PUSHES
PRECIPTATION AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 10Z OR
SO. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDTIONS TO FOLLOW AFTER
15Z THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOX VALLEY...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPCETED FROM GRB SOUTHWEST TO ATW AND OSH BY 12Z.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ESB
MARINE.........WOLF

000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.

AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE SOME CLEARING MOVES IN
AFTER 7Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AT LSE THAN
RST BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR AT 800FT TO 1500FT UNTIL THE DRIER AIR CAN MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 3SM IN SOME OF
THE SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN UP AROUND 6SM. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH

000
FXUS63 KMKX 222001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PLOD EVER SO SLOWLY EAST FROM NRN IA. LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...EXTENDS FROM ERN IL
INTO SC WI PER ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OOZING IN
FROM ERN IA AND SW WI. BEST 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
THIS EVENING THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THAT SIGNAL. AS 500 LOW
CENTER OPENS UP AND AXIS OF SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AROUND 6-9Z
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN PLACE...THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...APPEARS A BREAK FOR A TIME THIS EVENING UNTIL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER WITH A WEDGE OF CLEARING MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO POP BEFORE THEN. 850 COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER 6Z.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF PROGS IS TO LINGER SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING THE MORNING. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP TO 1-3C WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. 925 TEMPS RANGE FROM 6-9C SO MANY 50S EXPECTED
WITH BETTER SHOT AT 60 OR LOW 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS

000
FXUS63 KARX 221955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE NEXT LARGE TROUGH OR UPPER LOW OVER
WESTERN US IS MAKING A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BESIDES FOCUS ON LINGERING RAIN THREAT TONIGHT...MOST OF
THE ATTENTION WILL BE CENTERED ON RAIN CHANCES STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

NEARLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER AREA...WITH SLIGHT EAST
DRIFT. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THAT. CONCENSUS SUGGESTS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF CURRENT RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL FILL IN WITH MORE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE EVENING. SOME SURFACE AND
MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD HELP IN THIS PROCESS
AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE QUITE ROBUST WITH DEVELOPMENT BUT EVEN
IF THIS IS OVERDONE...PLAN ON KEEPING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
AT LEAST INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
UPSTREAM PUSH TO KEEP OUR PESKY LOW MOVING EAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
PICK UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND RELATED
DRYING. WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY WITH COOL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...STILL LOOKING AT FROST
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS OF WISCONSIN. ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED COLDER AREAS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE OR
BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE WITH
25/12Z NAM THE FASTEST AND MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTION. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RAIN THREAT WILL MAKE IT. EITHER
WAY SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT EVER
FORMS COULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO PART OF SATURDAY COULD DRY
OUT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW OVER NORTHEAST STATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

STRUGGLE IN FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES. WHILE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OR
RESPONSE FROM EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT TIMES. HIGHEST RISK OF THIS WOULD
CERTAINLY BE IN MINNESOTA OR IOWA. WAS STILL HOPING TO NARROW DOWN
DRY TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS.

AFTER THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST. MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO BRING
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG WITH WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IA WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AND
MOVE EAST INTO LOWER MI BY MORNING. PLAN ON IFR/MVFR CLOUD
COVER AND BAND OF SHRA NORTH OF THE LOW TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
THEN LOOK FOR FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CATEGORY AROUND
07Z AT KRST AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM..SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION....DAS

000
FXUS63 KGRB 221940
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST...WITH THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON PER
MSAS ANALYSIS. THIS SFC LOW...COMBINED WITH ENERGY FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE THAT WAS SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING WAS ALSO
DETECTED IN THIS AREA OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A NOSE
OF MINOR MU-CAPES AND THE BEST FORCING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DECENT 300MB JET
STREAK MOVED OVER THE STATE...WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SITTING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD. EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS WERE OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST...THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF GRB AND DVN SHOWED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH HELPED CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THIS AREA INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WAS REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF OSHKOSH
AND FDL. FURTHER NORTH...SKIES REMAINED CLOUDY BUT NO PRECIP WAS
REPORTED. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SEEING
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM CANADA ON
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA  LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE UPPER PENINSULA BORDER BY 21Z-00Z.
GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE CWA...WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE
MODELS FOR STRONG FORCING 21Z TODAY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN
WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUMPED UP
QPF A LITTLE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH THIS FORCING. CONTINUED
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY AS
WELL...AT WHICH POINT ANY LINGERING MU-CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE AWAY FROM WISCONSIN...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS.

DRY AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
AND SHOULD QUICKLY USHER OUT PRECIPITATION. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ENDING IN FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LAST OF THE PRECIP EXITS THE LAKESHORE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. SPED
UP THE EXIT OF PRECIP/CLOUDS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO MODEL TRENDS...OTHERWISE MADE FEW CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING
BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT SETS UP AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.25 TO 0.33 INCH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO BLO FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF NC/FAR NE WI...
WITH READINGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 DEGREES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR NC/FAR NE WI...WHERE FREEZING TEMPS ARE
LIKELY. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WHERE PATCHY/
AREAS OF FROST ARE A GOOD BET. WILL NEED TO WATCH CENTRAL WI
CLOSELY...AS FCST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY DRIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST TO OUR EAST.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING ANY PCPN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS ATTEMPT TO BRING SOME LGT
QPF INTO OUR SW COUNTIES BY ABOUT SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FCST DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MILDER
TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE STATE...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS WILL GET
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE STRONGER WINDS OFF
THE SFC BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. SO WILL KEEP THE STRONG WORDED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH JUST A MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. PERSISTENT MARINE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES
ARE COMING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND WINDS INCREASE AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN
ISSUE. WILL REMOVE FOG MENTION FROM THE MWW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......WOLF
MARINE.........WOLF

000
FXUS63 KARX 221752
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IA WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AND
MOVE EAST INTO LOWER MI BY MORNING. PLAN ON IFR/MVFR CLOUD
COVER AND BAND OF SHRA NORTH OF THE LOW TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
THEN LOOK FOR FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR CATEGORY AROUND
07Z AT KRST AND AROUND 09Z AT KLSE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES ON THURSDAY WITH
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...DAS

000
FXUS63 KGRB 221722
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1222 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPR LOW DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WL KICK THE UPR TROF NOW OVER
THE PLAINS EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BUT FAIRLY STABLE UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE WRN TROF WL START TO
EXPAND EWD AS STG PAC JET HEADS INTO CA.

TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL...THEN MODERATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...LIKELY TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WK. THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WL OCCUR EARLY AS
PLAINS UPR TROF CROSSES THE RGN. THAT SYSTEM WL BE A GOOD PCPN
PRODUCER...ESP FOR THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERAL FCST FOR THE SHORT-TERM IS FAIRLY SIMPLE. UPR TROF FM THE
NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE AREA AND PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY
DIGGING SE FM CANADA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN/TNGT. THAT SYSTEM WL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO MOST OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WORKING IN THE FCST DETAILS.

JUST SOME LINGERING LGT SHRA OVER THE FAR N EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FCST AREA EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE PCPN. SFC
BOUNDARY WAS OVER NRN WI AT 05Z...BUT HAS SINCE SLIPPED SWD ALONG
THE LAKE AND BAY. FOG...SOME OF IT QUITE DENSE...WAS OVER THE LAKE
AND BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED THE FOG TO ADVECT
INLAND...WITH VSBYS NOW AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AT TIMES AT THE GRB
AIRPORT. THINKING IS THAT THE REAL DENSE FOG WL BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATER...AND WON/T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WL COVER WITH AN SPS...WHICH IS ALREADY OUT.

STLT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED EXPANDING AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS
LIFTG NE ACRS IA/SERN MN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADAR RETURNS
WITH THIS FEATURE YET...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO THE
COMMA HEAD THAT WL PIVOT ACRS THE AREA LATE TDA/TNGT. RAN POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. UPPED PCPN AMNTS
CONSIDERABLY FM PREV FCST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN/EVE.
CARRIED SOME THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT LIMITED IT TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS WL PROBABLY OCCUR MID-DAY...BEFORE RAIN
BECOMES WIDEPSREAD.

WINDS WL INCR LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WE COULD
HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE STG NE WINDS CAUSE WATER TO
BACK UP THE BAY TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE FOX RIVER. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS. ALSO...DIDN/T GET MUCH RAIN IN E-C WI
YDA...SO AT LEAST WE AREN/T STARTING WITH HIGH FLOWS COMING INTO
THE MOUTH OF THE FOX.

PCPN SHIELD SHOULD START TO PUSH TO THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHUT
DOWN PCPN IN FAR N-C WI BY LATE TNGT. KEPT IT GOING OVER FAR E-C
WI EARLY FRI...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T LAST TOO LONG INTO THE MORNING.
STG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLDS
FM NW-SE FRI MORNING. DESITE THE EXPECTATION OF NR FULL SUN FRI
AFTN...TEMPS AND STG NLY WINDS WL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY FOR LATE
MAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND THEN TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE. LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LAND
O LAKES DROPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY DUE TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP A BIT LITTLE LONGER DURING THE NIGHT...THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH IF WINDS WENT CALM FOR A WHILE THAT THIS REGION
APPROACHED 32 DEGREES. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF
ISSUING THE FREEZE WATCH. DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AT MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 20
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. FROST IS LIKELY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING VERY DRY ON SATURDAY...
THUS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AS GFS/CANADIAN TRY TO EDGE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AT TIMES ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WOULD HAVE PREFER ED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL EXCEPT OVER OUR VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE STATE...WITH RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING IN THE EAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LOOMING JUST ON THE
HORIZON...OPTED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IMMEDIATELY AND
JUST WRAP THE CURRENT MARINE FOG EVENT INTO IT. DETAILS AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE FCST AND MWW
PRODUCT...SO OPTED TO KEEP ACTUAL HEADLINE SIMPLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......WOLF
MARINE.........SKOWRONSKI

000
FXUS63 KMKX 221641
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW PER WATER VAPOR/RUC
CONTINUES TO PLOD VERY SLOWLY EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO
EASTERN CWA. DECENT SURGE OF SHRA/TSRA HEADING INTO SE WI FROM NE
IL. PRECIP IS EXPECTED FILL IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH
THE AID OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO
THE SOUTH THOUGH EXPECT SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS. NAM/GFS MOS
BOTH LOWER THINGS TO BELOW 500 FEET WIT TIME AND THIS WOULD BE
PLAUSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TRENDED THAT WAY BUT WILL NEED TO
HAVE MORE RAIN FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS KICK
IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. PRECIP ENDS EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.

LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KARX 221145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT
644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CLOSED CIRCULATION TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF LOCATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION
AREA ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY. BROAD WEAK LIFT AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING...IN AT LEAST HIT-AND-
MISS FASHION...FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. ALSO OF CONCERN ARE LOW
CLOUDS. IFR IS NOT FAR AWAY AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND BACK INTO OUR
REGION...FIRST AT KRST...AND FINALLY AT KLSE. THE PERSISTANT LOW
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DEPART ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...MW

000
FXUS63 KGRB 220935
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
435 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPR LOW DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WL KICK THE UPR TROF NOW OVER
THE PLAINS EWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BUT FAIRLY STABLE UPR PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE WRN TROF WL START TO
EXPAND EWD AS STG PAC JET HEADS INTO CA.

TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL...THEN MODERATE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD...LIKELY TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WK. THE MAIN PCPN EVENT WL OCCUR EARLY AS
PLAINS UPR TROF CROSSES THE RGN. THAT SYSTEM WL BE A GOOD PCPN
PRODUCER...ESP FOR THE SE PART OF THE FCST AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

GENERAL FCST FOR THE SHORT-TERM IS FAIRLY SIMPLE. UPR TROF FM THE
NRN PLAINS WL SHIFT EWD ACRS THE AREA AND PHASE WITH SOME ENERGY
DIGGING SE FM CANADA...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONE
TRACKING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN/TNGT. THAT SYSTEM WL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO MOST OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WORKING IN THE FCST DETAILS.

JUST SOME LINGERING LGT SHRA OVER THE FAR N EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE FCST AREA EXPERIENCING A LULL IN THE PCPN. SFC
BOUNDARY WAS OVER NRN WI AT 05Z...BUT HAS SINCE SLIPPED SWD ALONG
THE LAKE AND BAY. FOG...SOME OF IT QUITE DENSE...WAS OVER THE LAKE
AND BAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWED THE FOG TO ADVECT
INLAND...WITH VSBYS NOW AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AT TIMES AT THE GRB
AIRPORT. THINKING IS THAT THE REAL DENSE FOG WL BE CONFINED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE WATER...AND WON/T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WL COVER WITH AN SPS...WHICH IS ALREADY OUT.

STLT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED EXPANDING AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS
LIFTG NE ACRS IA/SERN MN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADAR RETURNS
WITH THIS FEATURE YET...BUT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO THE
COMMA HEAD THAT WL PIVOT ACRS THE AREA LATE TDA/TNGT. RAN POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. UPPED PCPN AMNTS
CONSIDERABLY FM PREV FCST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WL BE LIMITED...
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTN/EVE.
CARRIED SOME THUNDER IN THE FCST...BUT LIMITED IT TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS WL PROBABLY OCCUR MID-DAY...BEFORE RAIN
BECOMES WIDEPSREAD.

WINDS WL INCR LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN WE COULD
HAVE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE STG NE WINDS CAUSE WATER TO
BACK UP THE BAY TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE FOX RIVER. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVENT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALLS. ALSO...DIDN/T GET MUCH RAIN IN E-C WI
YDA...SO AT LEAST WE AREN/T STARTING WITH HIGH FLOWS COMING INTO
THE MOUTH OF THE FOX.

PCPN SHIELD SHOULD START TO PUSH TO THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHUT
DOWN PCPN IN FAR N-C WI BY LATE TNGT. KEPT IT GOING OVER FAR E-C
WI EARLY FRI...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T LAST TOO LONG INTO THE MORNING.
STG SUBSIDENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLDS
FM NW-SE FRI MORNING. DESITE THE EXPECTATION OF NR FULL SUN FRI
AFTN...TEMPS AND STG NLY WINDS WL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY FOR LATE
MAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND THEN TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. A HARD FREEZE SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE. LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
LIKE LAND O LAKES...TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LAND
O LAKES DROPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY DUE TO WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP A BIT LITTLE LONGER DURING THE NIGHT...THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WOULD NOT
TAKE MUCH IF WINDS WENT CALM FOR A WHILE THAT THIS REGION
APPROACHED 32 DEGREES. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF
ISSUING THE FREEZE WATCH. DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S AT MOST PLACES ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 20
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS. FROST IS LIKELY
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING VERY DRY ON SATURDAY...
THUS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST. THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND AS GFS/CANADIAN TRY TO EDGE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AT TIMES ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AND KEEPS US
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS. WOULD HAVE PREFER ED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL EXCEPT OVER OUR VERY FAR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LIFR CIGS ACRS THE N THIS MORNING...AND SOME LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY. THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED...OVERALL POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER ACRS THE N
INTO TNGT. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS...WL
DEVELOP ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL THIS AFTN/EVE. MAY NEED
LLWS DUE TO VERY STG NE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC OVER E-C WI
TNGT...WL MAKE ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON THAT.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WITH HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LOOMING JUST ON THE
HORIZON...OPTED TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IMMEDIATELY AND
JUST WRAP THE CURRENT MARINE FOG EVENT INTO IT. DETAILS AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WL BE SPELLED OUT IN THE FCST AND MWW
PRODUCT...SO OPTED TO KEEP ACTUAL HEADLINE SIMPLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........SKOWRONSKI

000
FXUS63 KMKX 220920
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.

LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.

LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.

COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.

AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD

000
FXUS63 KARX 220809
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM AND 22.03Z RAP ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN INCREASING PV ADVECTION...QG FORCING AND VERTICAL
MOTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA 12-18Z TODAY AND DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP OVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE
0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 300-500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
THE 22.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FORECAST AREA
MIXING UP TO 825MB BY 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT CONCERN IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 22.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS LOW AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSISTENCY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND BE IN THE 70S TUESDAY...AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION BY 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION BUT IS STARTING TO SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OF THE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS IN DOUBT...BUT RST SHOULD SEE
SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR POSSIBLE INTO
LSE AROUND THE SAME TIME. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION.......HALBACH

000
FXUS63 KARX 220431
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACT FOR THE
CENTRAL US. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER...FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...
MAY HAVE SOME LIMITED FROST /YES...FROST/ TO DEAL WITH LATE IN THE
WEEK.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO FORM
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE CREATING SOME MLCAPE. LOWER DEW POINTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE COOL CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO WRAPPING AROUND
LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIELD.

WOULD THINK HIGHEST RISK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AHEAD OF LOW...
BUT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...OVERALL RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AREA WIDE. HAVE EVEN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND WESTERLIES MOVE IT EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALES MISS THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR PROMISED COOLER AND DRIER DAY
ON THURSDAY...EVEN AS SUNSHINE PREVAILS. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SETUP A BRIEF FROST THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN /FAVORED COOLER SPOTS/ WHERE LOWS COULD REACH
MID 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING WARM FRONT RETURN BY END OF
THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT FAR OUT WITH TREND TO BUILD MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID-SECTION THROUGH WEEKEND. SHOULD ALSO BE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LOTS OF ATTENTION ON HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS. LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS KEEP DRIER REGIME WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREATS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF WESTERN US TROUGH COMES IN. GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THREAT FOR
RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE INTO
ALL DAY RAINS.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES TREND DRIER AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN THREATS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT WORST
WITH A HIGHER THREAT ACROSS IOWA AND LOWER CHANCES INTO NORTH OR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION BUT IS STARTING TO SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OF THE
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT TIMING OF THAT IS IN DOUBT...BUT RST SHOULD SEE
SOME IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WITH MVFR POSSIBLE INTO
LSE AROUND THE SAME TIME. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH

000
FXUS63 KGRB 220348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAIN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF AN IRON MT TO
EAU CLAIRE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARINETTE TO MERRILL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA TO DIME HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DECREASED POPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THAT AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY MILD.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS SHOWING AMPLE QG FORCING WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STARTING
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND QUICKLY THROUGH
OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH WEAK CAPE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE SEEMS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

THE WRF ARW/NMM AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...THUS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY....WITH
LONG SKINNY CAPE AND WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS
AND MOISTURE ABUNDANCE...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP A FROST OR FREEZE
FROM OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE GETS CLOSER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A BIG
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS
HEIGHTS RISE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
A SOLID AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS (BASES 5-7K FT) WILL COVER MOST OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/FOG
FROM DEVELOPING...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL STILL DEVELOP WHERE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY
NC/NE WI)...AND NEAR THE LAKE/BAY (MARINE FOG). THE MARINE FOG
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE SHORELINE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DENSE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z/WEDS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED THE NORTHERN BAY ZONE TO THE ADVISORY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR...
WHICH WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON THE LAKE/BAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH

000
FXUS63 KMKX 220252
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
952 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...

DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM HAS MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF 7 MICROBARS/SEC
WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
FIRST IN NORTHERN MN AND THE SECOND ON THE SD/MN BORDER. ISOLD TSRA
POPPED UP ALONG WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER JET CORE ON EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED IN ON SW WINDS. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND THEN TRACK UP NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z.
MOISTURE/QPF SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE BETWEEN 6-12Z...THE GFS BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY NAM AND THE MORE ROBUST 12Z ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IN COMBO WITH EVOLVING SURFACE
TROUGH/850 TROUGH SETS UP DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVERGING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS WI SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA. CAPE IS LIMITED SO NOT THINKING
HIGHLY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

STACKED LOW...NOW EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS AND
OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS IT PHASES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY PRODUCING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH 850-700 MB LOWS DROPS THROUGH REGION REFLECTED IN LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AFTER
06Z. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SE 1/2 UNTIL CVA
WITH LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE EAST AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST QPF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY IS FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE CWA...BUT IF ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTS COULD
GO LOCALLY HIGHER THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN THE EAST...WHILE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP ALLOWS MID 60S IN THE WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

COLD AIR SETTLES OVER REGION UNDER THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 4C TO 5C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE LAKE. SOME LOWER LOCATIONS LIKE THE VALLEYS
OF THE KETTLE MORAINE MAY SEE FROST.

HIGH SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO 10C TO 12C. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S THERE...WHILE
SINGLE DIGIT 925 MB READINGS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO LOW.

EVENTUAL LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW AND UPPER JET KEY TO
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS HAS A WEAKER
NARROWER 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...TO FIRE ALONG BAROCLINIC
RIBBON THAT BECOMES SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER. SUBSEQUENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
PERSISTENT 250 MB JET MAX. ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND KEEPS PCPN WEST OF CWA AFTER GLANCING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
BLENDED POPS KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
BLENDING. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...70S TRY TO PUSH BACK IN FOR MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE SW
PORTION OF CWA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THIS HAS A
DIURNAL LOOK TO IT. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST. MODELS BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE AND EASTWARD PUSH OF
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE PLAINS. SO EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM

000
FXUS63 KGRB 212352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
652 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SOAKING RAIN EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WAS SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF AN IRON MT TO
EAU CLAIRE LINE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MARINETTE TO MERRILL. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN PEA TO DIME HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DECREASED POPS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THAT AREA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY MILD.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVED NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE BACK SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS SHOWING AMPLE QG FORCING WITH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL HELP TO INITIATE AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...STARTING
AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO EXPAND QUICKLY THROUGH
OUT ALL OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH WEAK CAPE AND VERY LITTLE
SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASED POPS A BIT IN THE MORNING
GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE AMOUNT OF FORCING THAT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE SEEMS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

THE WRF ARW/NMM AND ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST AN AREA OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO
AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH...THUS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY....WITH
LONG SKINNY CAPE AND WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS
AND MOISTURE ABUNDANCE...ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS FORECAST UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW RETURNING AS UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. A FROST OR FREEZE IS LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND TO KEEP A FROST OR FREEZE
FROM OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE GETS CLOSER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THE UPPER FLOW STAYS NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A BIG
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM AS
HEIGHTS RISE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER NORTHERN WI
THIS EVG. ALTHOUGH BRIEF CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVG...A FAIRLY
SOLID AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS FROM
DEVELOPING...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI LATE IN THE DAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
SHOWERS. MARINE FOG MAY ALSO COME ONSHORE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DENSE FOG ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z/WEDS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED THE NORTHERN BAY ZONE TO THE ADVISORY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING DRIER AIR...
WHICH WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES ON THE LAKE/BAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........KIECKBUSCH

000
FXUS63 KARX 212332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OF IMPACT FOR THE
CENTRAL US. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER...FOCUS WILL BE
ON RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...
MAY HAVE SOME LIMITED FROST /YES...FROST/ TO DEAL WITH LATE IN THE
WEEK.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO FORM
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WHERE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE CREATING SOME MLCAPE. LOWER DEW POINTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT ANY FORMATION GOING INTO THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE COOL CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO WRAPPING AROUND
LOW BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHIELD.

WOULD THINK HIGHEST RISK FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AHEAD OF LOW...
BUT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES WEDNESDAY...OVERALL RAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE ON THE RISE AREA WIDE. HAVE EVEN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TRANSITION INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND WESTERLIES MOVE IT EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCALES MISS THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

SHORT TERM RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR PROMISED COOLER AND DRIER DAY
ON THURSDAY...EVEN AS SUNSHINE PREVAILS. LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SETUP A BRIEF FROST THREAT...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN /FAVORED COOLER SPOTS/ WHERE LOWS COULD REACH
MID 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING WARM FRONT RETURN BY END OF
THE WEEK COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THAT FAR OUT WITH TREND TO BUILD MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID-SECTION THROUGH WEEKEND. SHOULD ALSO BE
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LOTS OF ATTENTION ON HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN HINTING AT BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS. LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS KEEP DRIER REGIME WITH
MINIMAL RAIN THREATS UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF WESTERN US TROUGH COMES IN. GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THREAT FOR
RAIN CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT TRANSLATE INTO
ALL DAY RAINS.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RAIN CHANCES TREND DRIER AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SMALL RAIN THREATS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN...SHOWERS OR STORMS WOULD BE INTERMITTENT AT WORST
WITH A HIGHER THREAT ACROSS IOWA AND LOWER CHANCES INTO NORTH OR
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS KRST/KLSE
REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST MN. AS THE
CORE OF LOW MOVES EAST...A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME VARIABLE...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINS WOULD SUGGEST FOG POTENTIAL AT KRST...BUT
DEPENDING HOW EXPANSIVE THE EVENING CLOUD DECK IS...MAY END UP
MORE OF A STRATUS ISSUE THAN FOG. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR FOG AT
KRST IS BELOW AVERAGE. FOR NOW...THINKING THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS IS WHEN MOST OF THE IFR CEILINGS AT KRST WILL
OCCUR...AND MVFR AT KLSE. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE LATE
WEDNESDAY AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...ZT

000
FXUS63 KMKX 212039
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
FIRST IN NORTHERN MN AND THE SECOND ON THE SD/MN BORDER. ISOLD TSRA
POPPED UP ALONG WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER JET CORE ON EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED IN ON SW WINDS. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND THEN TRACK UP NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z.
MOISTURE/QPF SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE BETWEEN 6-12Z...THE GFS BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY NAM AND THE MORE ROBUST 12Z ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IN COMBO WITH EVOLVING SURFACE
TROUGH/850 TROUGH SETS UP DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVERGING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS WI SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA. CAPE IS LIMITED SO NOT THINKING
HIGHLY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

STACKED LOW...NOW EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS AND
OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS IT PHASES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY PRODUCING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH 850-700 MB LOWS DROPS THROUGH REGION REFLECTED IN LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AFTER
06Z. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SE 1/2 UNTIL CVA
WITH LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE EAST AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST QPF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY IS FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE CWA...BUT IF ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTS COULD
GO LOCALLY HIGHER THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN THE EAST...WHILE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP ALLOWS MID 60S IN THE WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

COLD AIR SETTLES OVER REGION UNDER THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 4C TO 5C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE LAKE. SOME LOWER LOCATIONS LIKE THE VALLEYS
OF THE KETTLE MORAINE MAY SEE FROST.

HIGH SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO 10C TO 12C. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S THERE...WHILE
SINGLE DIGIT 925 MB READINGS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO LOW.

EVENTUAL LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW AND UPPER JET KEY TO
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS HAS A WEAKER
NARROWER 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...TO FIRE ALONG BAROCLINIC
RIBBON THAT BECOMES SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER. SUBSEQUENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
PERSISTENT 250 MB JET MAX. ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND KEEPS PCPN WEST OF CWA AFTER GLANCING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
BLENDED POPS KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
BLENDING. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...70S TRY TO PUSH BACK IN FOR MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE SW
PORTION OF CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THIS HAS A
DIURNAL LOOK TO IT. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST. MODELS BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE AND EASTWARD PUSH OF
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE PLAINS. SO EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM