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000
FXUS63 KMKX 021505 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW...WITH FAIRLY MILD TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE FILTERED SUN TO WARM
THINGS UP.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL PROBABLY SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 021505 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS AS IS FOR NOW...WITH FAIRLY MILD TEMPS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE FILTERED SUN TO WARM
THINGS UP.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OUT THERE THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MOST PLACES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WILL PROBABLY SEE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 021455
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.

FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-
     095.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 021455
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND BUFFALO
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONTINUING
THROUGH NOON AND WITH TROUGH AXIS RIGHT THROUGH THE
REGION...LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED TO HELP BREAK THINGS UP.

FOR NORTHEAST IOWA...OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO PARTNER GROUPS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE ADVISORY CAN
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-
     095.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 021133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 021133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 021133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 021133
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LOT OF CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR VSBYS...SUB 1/2SM FG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
MN/IA...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE VSBYS AS
EVIDENCED BY OBSERVATIONS. FEEL IT WILL BE MORE 1/4SM THAN NOT AT
KRST FOR THE EARLY MORNING...SO WILL STICK WITH THAT. GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
KRST MAY ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. KLSE HAS AVOIDED THE LOWER
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SITE HAVE AT LEAST
LOWERED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE SHAKY WHEN/IF KLSE VSBYS WILL DROP. WILL
LEAN ON THE TRENDS WHICH HAVE KEPT THEM MOSTLY P6SM.

-SHRA WILL MOVE IN LATER TODAY...WITH MOST MESO MODELS SUGGESTING
CLOSER TO 20Z. THEY ALSO WOULD TAKE THE PCPN EAST IN THE 04-06Z
WINDOW. WILL USE THIS TIMING.

A LOT OF CIGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECT ONLY SMALL DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. DON/T SEE VFR
RIGHT NOW...THOUGH COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST RH FIELDS POINT TO A DECREASE IN THE SATURATION FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH MORE MOISTURE ROLLING BACK IN FRIDAY.
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF SCT CLOUDS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON THAT FOR NOW. WILL INSTEAD BUMP CIGS UP...ALTHOUGH KEEP KRST AT
MVFR FOR THE MOMENT.

A LOT OF COMPLEXITY TO THE FORECAST INTO TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE
UPDATES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 021129
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
629 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY BEFORE DETERIORATING TO IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 021129
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
629 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CIGS TODAY BEFORE DETERIORATING TO IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 020900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
EXITING THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE...AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING 500 MB
TROUGH WHICH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE PUSHES WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...BUT THE MAX PASSES BY JUST TO THE SE ACROSS NRN IL INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN ON NOSE OF STRONGER 850 MB WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEAR DBQ TO NRN LK MI TONIGHT TO
WARRANT KEEPING HIGHER POPS. CAPE INCREASES TO 400-900 J/KG FOR A
TIME AS FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-6 BULK SHEAR
STILL BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. SO A FEW STRONG STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SPC HAS A 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY THOUGH DAY 1 SLIGHT REMAINS SOUTH OF WI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.5 INCH SO DECENT RAINS
EXPECTED...WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS LEADING
EDGE OF COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BEHIND LOW.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY WITH BLUSTERY WEST
WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST A LULL IN THE SHOWERS
MIDDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT
OVER WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR AND DEFORMATION
ZONE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON. THE BRISK WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS SHOWING A COLD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWS AROUND 33 INLAND. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT NOT CALM.
925MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE... I LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS OF 34 TO 37 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE TOO BREEZY FOR FROST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WI AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TIMING AND EXTENT OF THEM ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
MOISTURE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW AND WE WOULD JUST SEE CLOUDS INSTEAD OF
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL END
EARLY THIS-MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE HAS MVFR CIGS
AND FOG MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE STATE. LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THEN IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH THE WEAK WINDS AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...

MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WEST WINDS GUST TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 020844
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 020844
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 020844
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 020844
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 020825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 020825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 020825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 020825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING AND INCOMING RAIN.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING N-S
ACROSS MN/IA. WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND VERY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS LED TO SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.

OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR AND RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A DEEPENING
LONG WAVE BASICALLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION. OVER THE LOCAL AR X FORECAST AREA...BESIDES THE
FOG...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE LIFT
NORTHEAST IN MO BY NOON AND NORTHERN IL BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AS
THIS OCCURS...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALL COMBINE FORCES TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
WI. THIS PUTS ARX FORECAST AREA UNDER FAIRLY STRONG 850-500MB
FRONTOGENETIC BAND IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...PLAN ON RAIN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PULLS INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. PLAN ON
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
MPH. PV-ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COLDER TEMPERATURES/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR A PRETTY RAW DAY.

AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RESULT. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S LATER IN THE NIGHT...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RAW AUTUMN DAY ON
TAP AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOKS TO MAKE PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S/FEW LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 020438
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 02.07Z UNTIL 02.15Z ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MN...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND BUFFALO COUNTY IN WI.
THIS IS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL YESTERDAY
RESULTING IN A SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. WITH VERY LIGHT
SURFACE WIND...RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS EXPECTED AS SKIES CLEAR. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY
FARTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT DUE TO
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT TAF AIRFIELDS
GIVEN SATURATED NEAR SURFACE LAYER...CLEARING SKIES ALOFT AND VERY
LIGHT WIND. EXPECT FOG TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 02.08Z TO 02.10Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/4SM AND CEILINGS FROM 100 TO 200
FT AGL. FOG TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02.15Z AND 02.16Z
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 020422
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1122 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 02.07Z UNTIL 02.15Z ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MN...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND BUFFALO COUNTY IN WI.
THIS IS THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL YESTERDAY
RESULTING IN A SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. WITH VERY LIGHT
SURFACE WIND...RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS EXPECTED AS SKIES CLEAR. MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY
FARTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS GREAT DUE TO
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWEST
VISIBILITY...LESS THAN 1/2 SM...WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO SLOW MOVING LOW STRATUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AT KLSE DUE TO 01.23Z NINE DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION COMPARED TO KRST/S THREE DEGREES OF SEPARATION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTSTO
TIMING...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING FOR
ANY SIGN OF CLEARING AND THEREFORE WORSENING CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR BOTH KLSE/KRST...ADDED PREDOMINANT RAIN AFTER 02.18Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOMORROW.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094-095.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 020350
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 020350
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO IFR IN MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR
EARLY TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KMKX 020152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AND HELPING THINGS
ALONG. OVERALL THE FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SCATTERED
STUFF IN THE WEST FAIRLY ACCURATELY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND TOO STRONG WITH THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THIS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST RATHER SOLIDLY AND
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN TRENDS...I MAY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE LIKELY POPS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY IF
THINGS DON/T START TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL OF THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM HERE WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. TRENDS ARE LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED EARLIER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 09Z
THURSDAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL MORE
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL OFF LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A
WEAK TROF MOVING IN. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BTWN 09-10Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z THU. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A
SHORT TIME...CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY EVENING...MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AND HELPING THINGS
ALONG. OVERALL THE FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SCATTERED
STUFF IN THE WEST FAIRLY ACCURATELY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND TOO STRONG WITH THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THIS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST RATHER SOLIDLY AND
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN TRENDS...I MAY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE LIKELY POPS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY IF
THINGS DON/T START TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL OF THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM HERE WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. TRENDS ARE LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED EARLIER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 09Z
THURSDAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL MORE
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL OFF LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A
WEAK TROF MOVING IN. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BTWN 09-10Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z THU. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A
SHORT TIME...CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY EVENING...MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AND HELPING THINGS
ALONG. OVERALL THE FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SCATTERED
STUFF IN THE WEST FAIRLY ACCURATELY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND TOO STRONG WITH THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THIS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST RATHER SOLIDLY AND
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN TRENDS...I MAY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE LIKELY POPS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY IF
THINGS DON/T START TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL OF THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM HERE WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. TRENDS ARE LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED EARLIER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 09Z
THURSDAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL MORE
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL OFF LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A
WEAK TROF MOVING IN. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BTWN 09-10Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z THU. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A
SHORT TIME...CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY EVENING...MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 020152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING IN IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AND HELPING THINGS
ALONG. OVERALL THE FORCING IS WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY SCT SHOWERS
WITH A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SCATTERED
STUFF IN THE WEST FAIRLY ACCURATELY. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH AND TOO STRONG WITH THE PRECIP MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS.
THE HRRR BRINGS THIS IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST RATHER SOLIDLY AND
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN TRENDS...I MAY HAVE TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE LIKELY POPS AND KEEP IT MORE IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY IF
THINGS DON/T START TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL OF THIS WILL MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 4 AM TONIGHT WITH A LULL
IN THE PRECIP UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WON/T DROP MUCH FROM HERE WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ONGOING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT. TRENDS ARE LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATED EARLIER. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT BY AROUND 09Z
THURSDAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL MORE
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL OFF LATER TONIGHT WITHIN A
WEAK TROF MOVING IN. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING BTWN 09-10Z THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z THU. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME IFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR A
SHORT TIME...CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY EVENING...MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KARX 012344
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWEST
VISIBILITY...LESS THAN 1/2 SM...WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO SLOW MOVING LOW STRATUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AT KLSE DUE TO 01.23Z NINE DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION COMPARED TO KRST/S THREE DEGREES OF SEPARATION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTSTO
TIMING...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING FOR
ANY SIGN OF CLEARING AND THEREFORE WORSENING CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR BOTH KLSE/KRST...ADDED PREDOMINANT RAIN AFTER 02.18Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 012344
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWEST
VISIBILITY...LESS THAN 1/2 SM...WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO SLOW MOVING LOW STRATUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AT KLSE DUE TO 01.23Z NINE DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSION COMPARED TO KRST/S THREE DEGREES OF SEPARATION. FOR
NOW WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTSTO
TIMING...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING FOR
ANY SIGN OF CLEARING AND THEREFORE WORSENING CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR BOTH KLSE/KRST...ADDED PREDOMINANT RAIN AFTER 02.18Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOMORROW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 012304
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR IN
MOST PLACES LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD RISE FROM IFR EARLY TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE EVENING. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KMKX 012041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 012041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE
BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEMS TO BE FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. KEPT TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE TONIGHT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.

LOOKS LIKE A LULL IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TO THE
SOUTH. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH MODELS SHOWING CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES. SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH 5 PERCENT PROBS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTH.

THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...KEPT HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 70 FOR TOMORROW...AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HEATING.


THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THU NT FROM SW WI TO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH COLD FROPA IN ITS WAKE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BOOST PWS TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS FROM
THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED AVAILABLE CAPE.
THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR QUICKLY FROM W-E AFTER 06Z. AT LEAST
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW WHILE A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO MN.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL USA ON FRI...SLIGHTLY MOVING EWD ON SAT. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FRI AM IN FAR ERN WI WHILE INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRI NT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN ON SAT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPS FALLING ON FRI WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS INTO SAT AS THE
925-850 MB COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN NW FLOW
WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL WARM EACH
DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. WESTERLY
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KGRB 012028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 012028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PRECIPITATION TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

RADAR TIME LAPSE INDICATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY CONTINUED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HRRR MODEL APPEARED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
DEPICTING THIS THAN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF. STILL...HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES QUITE LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...DUE TO A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND DAYBREAK DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...AND 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD WISCONSIN. HAVE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.

THE WET CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW APPROACHES. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...FRIDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...
SO SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED OVER NC WI...WHERE COLD NW FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI LATE...AS H8 TEMPS DROP
TO -2 TO -4 C. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN WI...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WIND TRAJECTORIES BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO..WITH SEVERAL S/W TROFS
ROTATING THROUGH WI. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LLVL WINDS WILL
BE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS (15-30 PERCENT) OVER MOST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. IF PCPN OCCURS OVER NORTHERN WI...
A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK...WITH A BIT OF
A WARMUP POSSIBLE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THOUGH...
AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF H8 TEMPS OVER THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE H8 TEMPS OF +16 TO +20 OFF THE
00Z ECMWF...AS THEY SEEM ANOMALOUS COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND UNLIKELY WITH A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 011950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 011950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DRAGGING A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BAGGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER. WITH THE RAIN TODAY AND SOME DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT...THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AT LEAST 1 MILE FOG TONIGHT.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO
BECOME DENSE.  IF THIS DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAIRLY CLOSE...SO IT WON/T TAKE
MUCH COOLING TONIGHT TO GET THE FOG TO FORM. HAVE TWEAKED PRODUCTS
TOWARDS FOG TONIGHT. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS AND POSSIBLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE.

LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. VERY NICE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OVER THE REGION WITH
THIS LOW...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET STREAK
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR OVER AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE REGION AND LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW PLACES A WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
WILL WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD CENTER THE BAND ROUGHLY  FROM CHARLES
CITY...TO LA CROSSE...TO NEILLSVILLE. ANY SHIFT IN THE LOW TRACK
WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FAR SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO...IF SURFACE
CAPE CAN BUILD IN THESE AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT RAW FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COOLEST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES GO FROM AROUND 5 C FRIDAY MORNING TO NEGATIVE 3 C BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY  SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL. 1...THERE
MAY NOT BE ICE ALOFT IN THE CLOUD TO GENERATE SNOW AND 2...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR IT TO FALL AS DRIZZLE IF
SATURATION ISN/T DEEP ENOUGH...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN IF ITS A LITTLE
DEEPER. LOOKING AT THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN FEEL THAT SNOW
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE  40S.  PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING  FROM
THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.
A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MAY GENERATE  A FEW SHOWER.
PLAN ON HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUNDING  SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH EDGES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL. HIGHS COULD WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 011816
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 011816
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 011816
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 011816
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME CLEARING BETWEEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREVAILING SHOULD
BE MOSTLY MVFR. SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY WERE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS SO HAVE KEPT CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS DRY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
LEFT THE EAST DRY UNTIL THIS EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN WHILE THE NAM/GFS/SREF/EC ALL HANG ON TO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR QUITE A BIT LONGER. RIGHT NOW THE
HRRR IS LOOKING BETTER BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND FOR LONGER. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOWED LOW VSBYS IN FOG AROUND
12Z THURSDAY SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP WITH 1/2SM FG AT THE TAF SITES.
BASED ON WHAT I SAW FROM THIS MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS THERE DID NOT
APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...SO DID NOT USE IT AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITION. HAVE LEFT SHOWERS WITHOUT THUNDER TONIGHT
BUT WENT WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
MARINE.........ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KARX 011639
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SIGNIFICANTLY REWORKED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WAVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY IS
INTERCEPTING THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND YET ANOTHER
WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TAKING ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...A SPLIT IS OCCURRING IN THE PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THIS EVOLUTION...SO FOLLOWED IT. THIS
RESULTED IN REDUCING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DOWN INTO
THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
EITHER REMAIN WELL NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON....THUS PLAN ON RAISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. KLSE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR IN BOTH. MEANHWILE THE VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BECOME VFR AT KRST...BUT THE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MVFR RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE KRST/KLSE WILL STAY MAINLY DRY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BELOW 850 MB....SO NO PLANS TO PUSH IT ANY EARLIER THAN THEY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 011512 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND FORCING IS
WEAK. ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD IN LINE WITH LATEST MESO
MODELS WHICH ARE COMING IN MUCH DRIER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON
WITH SOME SUN IN SOUTHEAST WI. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WESTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS HAS HALTED AT THE
MS RIVER AND THERE IS SOME EROSION OF THE SRN EDGE OVER NRN IL...SO
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU WRN IA TIED TO
SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS TRACK NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH S CENTRAL MN
INTO NW WI UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
FIRST UPPER JET MAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BARELY BRUSH WRN WI TODAY SO WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES
TO THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. BEST FORCING
AND OMEGA CENTERED OVER CWA AT 06Z THEN SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKING FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

KEPT WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER 925MB TEMPS NOSE IN...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING BARELY REACHES THIS LEVEL. EARLY LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE EAST COOLER. LOWS HOLD UP
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WEST.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI THU MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET LIFT
NORTHEAST. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL MOST LIKELY HANG AROUND.

THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AT
THE SAME TIME AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE LOW LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SO
EXPECTING CAPE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INCREASED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER WI THU NIGHT...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER EASTER WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A RAW FALL-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI...WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN WI.
PLAN ON PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS.

850MB TEMPS WILL MODIFY A BIT BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

IT LOOKS DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL COOL. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE GFS TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF HERE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS HELD ON IN THE EAST AND EXPANDED WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF
KMSN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PCPN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AS BETTER
FORCING MOVES EAST OF STATE AROUND 12Z.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT BRING WAVES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 011512 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND FORCING IS
WEAK. ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES DOWNWARD IN LINE WITH LATEST MESO
MODELS WHICH ARE COMING IN MUCH DRIER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON
WITH SOME SUN IN SOUTHEAST WI. BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A FEW STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
AND UPSTREAM OBS...MAY SEE LOWER CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.

LOOKS MAINLY DRY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WESTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS HAS HALTED AT THE
MS RIVER AND THERE IS SOME EROSION OF THE SRN EDGE OVER NRN IL...SO
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU WRN IA TIED TO
SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS TRACK NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH S CENTRAL MN
INTO NW WI UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
FIRST UPPER JET MAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BARELY BRUSH WRN WI TODAY SO WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES
TO THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. BEST FORCING
AND OMEGA CENTERED OVER CWA AT 06Z THEN SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKING FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

KEPT WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER 925MB TEMPS NOSE IN...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING BARELY REACHES THIS LEVEL. EARLY LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE EAST COOLER. LOWS HOLD UP
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WEST.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI THU MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET LIFT
NORTHEAST. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL MOST LIKELY HANG AROUND.

THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AT
THE SAME TIME AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE LOW LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SO
EXPECTING CAPE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INCREASED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER WI THU NIGHT...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER EASTER WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A RAW FALL-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI...WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN WI.
PLAN ON PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS.

850MB TEMPS WILL MODIFY A BIT BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

IT LOOKS DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL COOL. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE GFS TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF HERE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS HELD ON IN THE EAST AND EXPANDED WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF
KMSN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PCPN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AS BETTER
FORCING MOVES EAST OF STATE AROUND 12Z.

MARINE...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT BRING WAVES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 011151
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ALSO WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH FOG SPREADS OVER
THE AREA. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY BE APPROACHED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS 2000 WINDS APPROACH 35 KTS.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 011151
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ALSO WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH FOG SPREADS OVER
THE AREA. LLWS CONDITIONS MAY BE APPROACHED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS 2000 WINDS APPROACH 35 KTS.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH
MARINE.........ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KARX 011150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WET PERIOD STARTING TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VARIOUS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND LIKELY SOME
LIFR.

AN AREA FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE -SHRA WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MORE
SCATTERED -SHRA LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SOME
ISOLD -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFR/IFR TONIGHT. WHILE THE ANTICIPATION IS KRST/KLSE
WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...REDUCING VSBYS TO 1/2SM OR LESS. GUIDANCE FAVORING
THIS...WHILE SREF AND MESO MODELS ALSO SIDING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUB 1SM VSBYS. GOING TO STEER THE FORECAST THIS WAY. MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN TIMING...COULD BE EARLIER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 011150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WET PERIOD STARTING TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VARIOUS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND LIKELY SOME
LIFR.

AN AREA FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE -SHRA WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MORE
SCATTERED -SHRA LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SOME
ISOLD -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFR/IFR TONIGHT. WHILE THE ANTICIPATION IS KRST/KLSE
WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...REDUCING VSBYS TO 1/2SM OR LESS. GUIDANCE FAVORING
THIS...WHILE SREF AND MESO MODELS ALSO SIDING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUB 1SM VSBYS. GOING TO STEER THE FORECAST THIS WAY. MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN TIMING...COULD BE EARLIER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 011150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WET PERIOD STARTING TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VARIOUS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND LIKELY SOME
LIFR.

AN AREA FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE -SHRA WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MORE
SCATTERED -SHRA LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SOME
ISOLD -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFR/IFR TONIGHT. WHILE THE ANTICIPATION IS KRST/KLSE
WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...REDUCING VSBYS TO 1/2SM OR LESS. GUIDANCE FAVORING
THIS...WHILE SREF AND MESO MODELS ALSO SIDING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUB 1SM VSBYS. GOING TO STEER THE FORECAST THIS WAY. MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN TIMING...COULD BE EARLIER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 011150
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WET PERIOD STARTING TODAY...PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS VARIOUS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND LIKELY SOME
LIFR.

AN AREA FRONTOGENETIC/WARM AIR ADVECTIVE -SHRA WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MORE
SCATTERED -SHRA LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. SOME
ISOLD -TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

OBS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LIFR/IFR TONIGHT. WHILE THE ANTICIPATION IS KRST/KLSE
WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...REDUCING VSBYS TO 1/2SM OR LESS. GUIDANCE FAVORING
THIS...WHILE SREF AND MESO MODELS ALSO SIDING WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUB 1SM VSBYS. GOING TO STEER THE FORECAST THIS WAY. MIGHT BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN TIMING...COULD BE EARLIER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 010856
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WESTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS HAS HALTED AT THE
MS RIVER AND THERE IS SOME EROSION OF THE SRN EDGE OVER NRN IL...SO
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU WRN IA TIED TO
SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS TRACK NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH S CENTRAL MN
INTO NW WI UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
FIRST UPPER JET MAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BARELY BRUSH WRN WI TODAY SO WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES
TO THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. BEST FORCING
AND OMEGA CENTERED OVER CWA AT 06Z THEN SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKING FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

KEPT WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER 925MB TEMPS NOSE IN...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING BARELY REACHES THIS LEVEL. EARLY LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE EAST COOLER. LOWS HOLD UP
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI THU MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET LIFT
NORTHEAST. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL MOST LIKELY HANG AROUND.

THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AT
THE SAME TIME AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE LOW LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SO
EXPECTING CAPE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INCREASED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER WI THU NIGHT...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER EASTER WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A RAW FALL-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI...WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN WI.
PLAN ON PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS.

850MB TEMPS WILL MODIFY A BIT BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

IT LOOKS DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL COOL. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE GFS TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF HERE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS HELD ON IN THE EAST AND EXPANDED WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF
KMSN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PCPN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AS BETTER
FORCING MOVES EAST OF STATE AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT BRING WAVES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 010856
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WESTWARD PROGRESS OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE LOOPS HAS HALTED AT THE
MS RIVER AND THERE IS SOME EROSION OF THE SRN EDGE OVER NRN IL...SO
EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS...BUT
EASTERN CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THRU WRN IA TIED TO
SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS TRACK NEARLY DUE NORTH THROUGH S CENTRAL MN
INTO NW WI UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
FIRST UPPER JET MAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL BARELY BRUSH WRN WI TODAY SO WILL LIMIT PCPN CHANCES
TO THE FAR WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. BEST FORCING
AND OMEGA CENTERED OVER CWA AT 06Z THEN SHIFTS EAST OF REGION AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. LOOKING FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

KEPT WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER 925MB TEMPS NOSE IN...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING BARELY REACHES THIS LEVEL. EARLY LOW
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE EAST COOLER. LOWS HOLD UP
TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S EAST TO AROUND 60 IN THE FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT
SOUTHEAST WI THU MORNING AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET LIFT
NORTHEAST. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL MOST LIKELY HANG AROUND.

THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI THU AFTERNOON AT
THE SAME TIME AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE LOW LOW LEVEL JET NOSES IN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY... SO
EXPECTING CAPE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. INCREASED POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES...
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER WI THU NIGHT...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN UP WITH A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER EASTER WI BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEN A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A RAW FALL-LIKE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CORE
OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI...WITH 850MB TEMPS JUST
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 IN SOUTHERN WI.
PLAN ON PLENTY OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS.

850MB TEMPS WILL MODIFY A BIT BY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE
ROLLING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THAT COULD CLIP SOUTHERN WI... SO KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

IT LOOKS DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL COOL. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE GFS TO PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OUT OF HERE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW CLOUDS HELD ON IN THE EAST AND EXPANDED WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW UNDER INVERSION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF
KMSN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS...THOUGH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF PCPN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z AS BETTER
FORCING MOVES EAST OF STATE AROUND 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...

STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT BRING WAVES NORTH OF MILWAUKEE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 010824
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS THE
FIRST BAND OF WAA PCPN PROGGED TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. AT 08Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WAS WORKING OVER WESTERN IOWA AND IS BEING LED BY A SHORT
WAVE AND APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK A BIT FROM LATEST GUIDANCE.
ANTICIPATE THIS NORTH TO SOUTH BAND TO WORK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY BEFORE THIS BAND WORKS INTO THE AREA.

AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS EVENING WITHIN THE WAA SECTOR...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
DIMINISHED PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS AND THEN
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AS FAR AS THUNDER MENTION...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. WILL KEEP SOME THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL FOCUS THE MENTION
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE INTERESTING IN EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM EASTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT 06Z THURSDAY...RANGING AS FAR
NORTH AS IRON MOUNTAIN...MICHIGAN WHILE THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WAS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE FROM
OCONTO TO SHEBOYGAN. THIS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND DEPICTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND WINDY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MAIN STORY
WILL BE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IF WE GET
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN...MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM. DID NOT ADD THEM FOR THE MOMENT AS SOME OF
THE DETAILS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...COLD
ENOUGH FOR IT TO SNOW. IF YOU LIKE SNOW...THE GFS IS MOST PROMISING
FOR A QUICKER CHANGE OVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACCUMULATION
OVER THE FAR NORTH. THE ECMWF WAS WARMER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...THUS LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS IF SNOW WOULD FALL OR EVEN
ACCUMULATE. THE 00Z CANADIAN WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS.
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S UP NORTH...AND ONLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. DID LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY...
NOT AS LOW AS THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.

BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEATHS
DOOR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM
MARINE.........ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KARX 010803
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 010803
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH...A CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING NORTH OUT OF ND INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEB/KS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OUT OF THE
WAVE...EXTENDING N-S FROM IA INTO EASTERN KS/OK.

LOOK FOR THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE EXPECTED TO
DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AS WELL. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 12-15C RANGE
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THEN A TAPERING TREND LATE IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS THE WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

RAINFALL...WIND...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX ALL A CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM.

AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
DEEPEN THIS LOW AND TAKE IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS INCREASES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1-
1.5 INCH RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GULF
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BROAD 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE INCREASING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEN AS THE LOW PULLS ACROSS WI THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING 850-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE/FOCUS MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TOWARD UPPER MI.

COLD AIR ADVECTION/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE FRIDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. MID-LEVEL LOW/PV-ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS HIGHS TOP OFF ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SO
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE RAW/BLUSTERY DAY WILL BE ON TAP.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE SHOWERS
LATE IN THE NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME THERMAL PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY AS HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY...MODERATING PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 010445
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 010445
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 010445
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 010445
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT HAS RETROGRADED
TO THE WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN LEAVING KRST/KLSE ON ITS WESTERN
FLANK. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01.09Z
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND LOWER CLOUD COVER
MOVES TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE EAST. STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AFTER 01.12Z...BUT
ADJUSTED START TIMES BY A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW
MOISTENING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY
TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. RAINFALL TO PUSH EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE IFR/MVFR
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 010349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 010349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. RAIN MAY
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KMKX 010153
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEY/VE CLEARED OUT OF
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST...OVER
THE AREAS THAT CLEARED...LATER ON TONIGHT. NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED
OF THAT THOUGH. THEN ALL THE CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

THE OTHER PROBLEM TONIGHT HAS BEEN AN UNEXPECTED ROUND OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS A COMBINATION OF SPEED/MECHANICAL
CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
/WEAK CAPE/ WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE. H8 ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK BUT SHARP TROF AXIS
DROPPING THROUGH THE SHORELINE AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY AT
KMKE ACTUALLY WENT DOWN TO 2 1/2 MILES BRIEFLY...AND THEY
MEASURED WITH /.01/. THE PRECIP SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE TERMINAL
DOPPLER RADAR AND MUCH LESS OBVIOUSLY ON OUR LARGER WAVELENGTH
DOPPLER. TRENDS BOTH IN THE SHORT RANGE SOUNDINGS AND RADAR
SUGGEST THIS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR
CIGS IN KMKE/KUES/KENW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KMSN SCATTERED
OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS BY MID EVENING...BUT THERE IS CONCERN THEY
WILL SPREAD BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO...UNCERTAINTY
IS MUCH GREATER AT KMSN. ALL THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH BY
MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE
SPLIT...WITH SOME CLEARING THINGS OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS BASED ON HOW SLOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED TODAY...AND
MORE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT VIA THETA-E ADVECTION. WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO MILDER FOR LOWS DUE TO INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST.

IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPS
MUCH FOR TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SETTLING ON SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHER
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  SECONDARY SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIED TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET INTO SRN WI ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE NUMEROUS
-SHRA.  WEAKENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ADD
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT AT THE TIME AS WELL.  WL CONTINUE TO TREND
POPS TO LIKELY WORDING WED NIGHT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAK BUT
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J NEAR THE IL BORDER SO WL CONTINUE T
CHANCE.

MAY BE BREAK IN PRECIP THU MRNG DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN EXITING LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ENHANCED LIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SECONDARY LIFT WL BE DUE TO UPSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS IA/MN ON THU.
REAMPLIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE WL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE SPREADING INTO WI
LATER THU.  BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS THU AFTN AND EVE BUT
QUESTION OF HOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME.  AT THIS POINT
THINKING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT INSTABILTY BUT
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN SCT TO NMRS STORMS
EMBEDDED IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

COOLER AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT WL SETTLE IN LATER THU NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR ON FRI.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEGREES WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED LIFT. WL BUMP UP POPS BUT KEEP IN CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
POINT.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SMALL HAIL FROM ANY SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND VIGOROUS LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SLOWER MOVING
AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DURING THIS TIME...
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN WI ON BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN.  85H TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN 0
AND -5C BY SAT...WITH THE COLD TEMPS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
925H TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO 5C OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR WARMING MON
AND TUE.  HENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD.  TIMING ONCE
AGAIN DIFFICULT ON WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GTLAKES.  THEREFORE WL
CONTINUE SMALL POPS GOING FRI NGT WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIP SUN NGT INTO MON.  GFS OUTLIER ON COLD THERMAL PROFILE AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES FRI NGT AND AGAIN SUN NGT HINTING AT POTENTIAL
MIX OF LIGHT PRECIP.

HOWEVER GEM AND ECMWF NOT QUITE AS COLD IN LOW LEVELS.  FOR NOW...WL
CONTINUE LIQUID PRECIP FOR THESE PERIODS.  STEERING FLOW TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.  CPC 8-14 DAY 500H VALID OCT7-13 HAS GRADUALLY WEAKING
BROADSCALE TROF OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS AND CAN WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER GTLAKES.  ONLY A MATTER OF TIME WHEN LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING WL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION AND NIGHT TIME FREEZING
TEMPS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME AREAS MIGHT HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND ADJUST TAFS
PER TRENDS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE. WAVES ARE LIKELY GENERALLY FOUR FEET OR LESS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 010153
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PROBLEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEY/VE CLEARED OUT OF
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST...OVER
THE AREAS THAT CLEARED...LATER ON TONIGHT. NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED
OF THAT THOUGH. THEN ALL THE CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.

THE OTHER PROBLEM TONIGHT HAS BEEN AN UNEXPECTED ROUND OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS A COMBINATION OF SPEED/MECHANICAL
CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
/WEAK CAPE/ WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE SOME
DRIZZLE. H8 ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A WEAK BUT SHARP TROF AXIS
DROPPING THROUGH THE SHORELINE AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. VSBY AT
KMKE ACTUALLY WENT DOWN TO 2 1/2 MILES BRIEFLY...AND THEY
MEASURED WITH /.01/. THE PRECIP SHOWED UP NICELY ON THE TERMINAL
DOPPLER RADAR AND MUCH LESS OBVIOUSLY ON OUR LARGER WAVELENGTH
DOPPLER. TRENDS BOTH IN THE SHORT RANGE SOUNDINGS AND RADAR
SUGGEST THIS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK SO LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED THERE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR
CIGS IN KMKE/KUES/KENW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. KMSN SCATTERED
OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS BY MID EVENING...BUT THERE IS CONCERN THEY
WILL SPREAD BACK IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO...UNCERTAINTY
IS MUCH GREATER AT KMSN. ALL THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH BY
MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE
SPLIT...WITH SOME CLEARING THINGS OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS BASED ON HOW SLOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED TODAY...AND
MORE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT VIA THETA-E ADVECTION. WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO MILDER FOR LOWS DUE TO INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST.

IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPS
MUCH FOR TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SETTLING ON SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHER
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  SECONDARY SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIED TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET INTO SRN WI ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE NUMEROUS
-SHRA.  WEAKENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ADD
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT AT THE TIME AS WELL.  WL CONTINUE TO TREND
POPS TO LIKELY WORDING WED NIGHT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAK BUT
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J NEAR THE IL BORDER SO WL CONTINUE T
CHANCE.

MAY BE BREAK IN PRECIP THU MRNG DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN EXITING LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ENHANCED LIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SECONDARY LIFT WL BE DUE TO UPSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS IA/MN ON THU.
REAMPLIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE WL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE SPREADING INTO WI
LATER THU.  BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS THU AFTN AND EVE BUT
QUESTION OF HOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME.  AT THIS POINT
THINKING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT INSTABILTY BUT
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN SCT TO NMRS STORMS
EMBEDDED IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

COOLER AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT WL SETTLE IN LATER THU NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR ON FRI.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEGREES WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED LIFT. WL BUMP UP POPS BUT KEEP IN CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
POINT.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SMALL HAIL FROM ANY SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND VIGOROUS LIFT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SLOWER MOVING
AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DURING THIS TIME...
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN WI ON BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN.  85H TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN 0
AND -5C BY SAT...WITH THE COLD TEMPS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
925H TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO 5C OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR WARMING MON
AND TUE.  HENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD.  TIMING ONCE
AGAIN DIFFICULT ON WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GTLAKES.  THEREFORE WL
CONTINUE SMALL POPS GOING FRI NGT WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIP SUN NGT INTO MON.  GFS OUTLIER ON COLD THERMAL PROFILE AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES FRI NGT AND AGAIN SUN NGT HINTING AT POTENTIAL
MIX OF LIGHT PRECIP.

HOWEVER GEM AND ECMWF NOT QUITE AS COLD IN LOW LEVELS.  FOR NOW...WL
CONTINUE LIQUID PRECIP FOR THESE PERIODS.  STEERING FLOW TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.  CPC 8-14 DAY 500H VALID OCT7-13 HAS GRADUALLY WEAKING
BROADSCALE TROF OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS AND CAN WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER GTLAKES.  ONLY A MATTER OF TIME WHEN LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING WL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION AND NIGHT TIME FREEZING
TEMPS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME AREAS MIGHT HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND ADJUST TAFS
PER TRENDS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE. WAVES ARE LIKELY GENERALLY FOUR FEET OR LESS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 302324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ONSET AT KRST/KLSE
STILL REASONABLE GIVEN SLOW FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DISSIPATE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT PREDOMINANT
RAIN AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 01.12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 302324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN IOWA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ONSET AT KRST/KLSE
STILL REASONABLE GIVEN SLOW FORWARD PROPAGATION AND INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DISSIPATE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. EXPECT PREDOMINANT
RAIN AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 01.12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FROM 2 TO 5 SM IN MIST
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10 KTS...VERY SLOWLY TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 302313
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMES CLOUDY
WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 302313
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMES CLOUDY
WITH MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 302012
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATOCUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES RISING TO AROUND 3 KFT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. PLAN ON CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AT KRST
AROUND 13Z WITH CLOUD BASES AT 700 FT AND VISIBILITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 2 SM IN BR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE BUT
THIS ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 302012
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE 30.12Z MODELS FOR NOW HAVE COME INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS ON HOW
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT INTO CANADA AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SHIFTING EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER
BETWEEN 1000 AND 300 MB. THIS FORCING LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY SOME
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE 30.12Z NAM SHOWING THE AREA
GETTING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB LEVEL JET.
THE WHOLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SLOW
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE RETREATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SLOWER
APPROACH OF THE RAIN KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT THEN ADVANCING IT PART WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BRINGING IN UP TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT 40 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE KEEPING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DRY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE BAND OF MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS LIFT FROM ABOUT THE I35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST TOWARD
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE
A CORRIDOR OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN.

EXPECTING SOME WHAT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE RAIN MAY NOT
END COMPLETELY AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT WOULD EXPECT IT TO BECOME PRETTY LIGHT OR COULD
EVEN GO TO DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE. DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
ABOUT 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING AND THEN CONFINED
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WHILE
GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. THE FORCING WILL
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY
START OUT WEAK THURSDAY BUT CONTINUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DEEPEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
ABOVE 500 MB THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. A
DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH UP TO 3 UBAR/S EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE PAST THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AHEAD OF THE
STRONG NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STARTED TO INCREASE THE RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WENT BACK TO 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THESE LIKELY WILL NEED TO GO
HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT FORCING SIGNALS. REALLY UPPED THE RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WRAP AROUND WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVE PAST
THE AREA. INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH A COOL RAW DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT CRACK 50 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND IT COULD EVEN GET COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME
SUGGESTIONS BY THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THAT THERE WILL THEN BE A
PARADE OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATOCUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES RISING TO AROUND 3 KFT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. PLAN ON CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AT KRST
AROUND 13Z WITH CLOUD BASES AT 700 FT AND VISIBILITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 2 SM IN BR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE BUT
THIS ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KGRB 301956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY
INVERSION HAVE FINALLY SHOWED SIGNS OF THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF WI. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONT DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO
SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE EAST. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY NOT
LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND MID/HI CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS LATE TNGT. THE MVFR CIGS WL THEN CONT ON WED AS A BAND
OF SHWRS GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK








000
FXUS63 KGRB 301956
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION FINALLY
DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL WI. NE
WINDS OFF OF LAKE MI KEPT MOISTURE FILTERING INTO E-CNTRL WI...
MAKING IT HARDER FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISPERSE. APART FROM THE
LOW CLOUD ISSUE...THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD
OF A CDFNT ON WED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HI PRES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A SWD EXTENSION INTO NRN WI. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL SD WITH A CDFNT OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUDS FROM ROUGHLY MFI-AIG-SOUTH OF IMT. FARTHER WEST...A MIX
OF CLOUDS WERE OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMED NWD FROM THE GULF.

ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION AND INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS WI. THESE CLOUDS WL
HELP PREVENT TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF TNGT WITH MINS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 40S ALONG LAKE MI.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED
AND HELP TO SHOVE A CDFNT EWD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY 00Z THU.
PRECEDING THIS FNT...A 30 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL BRING BOTH A
STEADY INCREASE IN ISEN LIFT AND GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO WI AND
HELP TO SET OFF SHWRS. THIS EXPECTED BAND OF PCPN IS PROGGED TO
REACH CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY AND ERN WI BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THE THUNDER THREAT ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT
KEPT AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL IN FCST AS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LATE
DAY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 DEGS N-CNTRL...TO THE MID 60S E-CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS EVEN SOME CONCERN REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT. BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES AS A SURFACE LOW...MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...APPROACHES WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...REMAINS HIGH ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THERE
ARE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. BOTH
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GEM-NH HAD A DRY SLOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN 06Z-12Z WHILE THE 12Z NAM...12Z GFS AND 15Z SREF
KEEP A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WAS STARTING TO SHOWING UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT ON 12Z NAM AND
12Z GFS IN BUFKIT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER. HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER FORECAST AND THIS AGREES WITH
THE FORECAST FOR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOME PART...OR PARTS...OF THE AREA PRETTY
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE SWITCH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERN SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
COLDER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY
INVERSION HAVE FINALLY SHOWED SIGNS OF THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF WI. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONT DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO
SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE EAST. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY NOT
LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND MID/HI CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS LATE TNGT. THE MVFR CIGS WL THEN CONT ON WED AS A BAND
OF SHWRS GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KMKX 301948
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE
SPLIT...WITH SOME CLEARING THINGS OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS...WHILE OTHERS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS BASED ON HOW SLOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED TODAY...AND
MORE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT VIA THETA-E ADVECTION. WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO MILDER FOR LOWS DUE TO INCREASED SKY COVER IN THE
FORECAST.

IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. DID NOT CHANGE HIGH TEMPS
MUCH FOR TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GRADUALLY SETTLING ON SLOWER MOVING AND HIGHER
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  SECONDARY SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIED TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET INTO SRN WI ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE NUMEROUS
-SHRA.  WEAKENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ADD
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC LIFT AT THE TIME AS WELL.  WL CONTINUE TO TREND
POPS TO LIKELY WORDING WED NIGHT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAK BUT
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J NEAR THE IL BORDER SO WL CONTINUE T
CHANCE.

MAY BE BREAK IN PRECIP THU MRNG DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN EXITING LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REDEVELOPING ENHANCED LIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SECONDARY LIFT WL BE DUE TO UPSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS IA/MN ON THU.
REAMPLIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS AMPLIFYING WAVE WL
RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE SPREADING INTO WI
LATER THU.  BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS THU AFTN AND EVE BUT
QUESTION OF HOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME.  AT THIS POINT
THINKING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT INSTABILTY BUT
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN SCT TO NMRS STORMS
EMBEDDED IN SHRA ACTIVITY.

COOLER AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT WL SETTLE IN LATER THU NIGHT WITH
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR ON FRI.  VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEGREES WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED LIFT. WL BUMP UP POPS BUT KEEP IN CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
POINT.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SMALL HAIL FROM ANY SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND VIGOROUS LIFT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON SLOWER MOVING
AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DURING THIS TIME...
UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN WI ON BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN.  85H TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN 0
AND -5C BY SAT...WITH THE COLD TEMPS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
925H TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO 5C OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR WARMING MON
AND TUE.  HENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD.  TIMING ONCE
AGAIN DIFFICULT ON WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND DEEP UPPER LOW
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GTLAKES.  THEREFORE WL
CONTINUE SMALL POPS GOING FRI NGT WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR LIGHT
PRECIP SUN NGT INTO MON.  GFS OUTLIER ON COLD THERMAL PROFILE AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES FRI NGT AND AGAIN SUN NGT HINTING AT POTENTIAL
MIX OF LIGHT PRECIP.

HOWEVER GEM AND ECMWF NOT QUITE AS COLD IN LOW LEVELS.  FOR NOW...WL
CONTINUE LIQUID PRECIP FOR THESE PERIODS.  STEERING FLOW TO REMAIN
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.  CPC 8-14 DAY 500H VALID OCT7-13 HAS GRADUALLY WEAKING
BROADSCALE TROF OVER NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS AND CAN WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER GTLAKES.  ONLY A MATTER OF TIME WHEN LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING WL RESULT IN FROST FORMATION AND NIGHT TIME FREEZING
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME CLEARING IN AT LEAST
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME AREAS MIGHT HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND ADJUST TAFS
PER TRENDS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO EASE. WAVES ARE LIKELY GENERALLY FOUR FEET OR LESS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 301730
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU HAS POURED INTO THE STATE
IN THE FRONTS WAKE MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CAA PATTERN
MOVING EAST LATER TODAY AND DRY AIR WORKING TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS MAY TEND TO HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. SAT IMAGERY
INDICATED CLEARING TREND WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BUT HAS SLOWED UP THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE COOL MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF CLEARING SKIES AT THE START...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...FORECAST
TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WAA SYSTEM ARE DELAYED. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ADDING PATCHY FROST MENTION TONIGHT IF THE TREND GOES
THAT DIRECTION.

ARRIVAL OF PCPN WITH THE WAA THEN SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE STRONGER WAA
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST
SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
QUESTIONS LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ON HOW PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE.
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AROUND BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE A WET ONE...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE WITH LIKELY
POPS AT MOST PLACES. LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -1C... THUS COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAYBE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THICKNESS PATTERN
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW DOWN TO WAUSAU...
MARSHFIELD... AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS EAST TO NEAR SHAWANO/WAUPACA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY
INVERSION HAVE FINALLY SHOWED SIGNS OF THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF WI. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONT DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO
SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE EAST. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY NOT
LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND MID/HI CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS LATE TNGT. THE MVFR CIGS WL THEN CONT ON WED AS A BAND
OF SHWRS GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KGRB 301730
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU HAS POURED INTO THE STATE
IN THE FRONTS WAKE MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CAA PATTERN
MOVING EAST LATER TODAY AND DRY AIR WORKING TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS MAY TEND TO HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. SAT IMAGERY
INDICATED CLEARING TREND WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BUT HAS SLOWED UP THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE COOL MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF CLEARING SKIES AT THE START...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...FORECAST
TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WAA SYSTEM ARE DELAYED. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ADDING PATCHY FROST MENTION TONIGHT IF THE TREND GOES
THAT DIRECTION.

ARRIVAL OF PCPN WITH THE WAA THEN SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE STRONGER WAA
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST
SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
QUESTIONS LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ON HOW PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE.
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AROUND BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE A WET ONE...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE WITH LIKELY
POPS AT MOST PLACES. LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -1C... THUS COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAYBE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THICKNESS PATTERN
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW DOWN TO WAUSAU...
MARSHFIELD... AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS EAST TO NEAR SHAWANO/WAUPACA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY
INVERSION HAVE FINALLY SHOWED SIGNS OF THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF WI. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONT DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO
SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE EAST. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY NOT
LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND MID/HI CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS LATE TNGT. THE MVFR CIGS WL THEN CONT ON WED AS A BAND
OF SHWRS GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KARX 301720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WILL HELP TO ERODE
SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 12Z GRB/MPX SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
INVERSION IN PLACE HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. PLAN ON SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN WE WILL
SEE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER TODAY...THEN RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM ONTARIO CANADA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WAS DRAGGING GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE/STRATUS CLOUD COVER SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE MID 40S/LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 60S.

CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
TROUGH/COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN MN/IA. INCREASING CORRIDOR OF 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO PUSH A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTH OUT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST GFS/ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A STRONGER SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
WET PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. PLAN ON SOME ISOLATED THUNDER AS
WELL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S...BUT THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DRAWS
COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW. IN FACT...THE ECMWF SOUNDING SUPPORTS THIS.

PLAN ON CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LINGERING COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS BRINGS A
COUPLE WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATOCUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES RISING TO AROUND 3 KFT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT KRST. PLAN ON CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AT KRST
AROUND 13Z WITH CLOUD BASES AT 700 FT AND VISIBILITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 2 SM IN BR. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE BUT
THIS ISN/T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE 15-16Z TIMEFRAME ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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