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000
FXUS63 KARX 261154
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 261154
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL IA WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITYRESTRICTIONS (2-4 SM) IN LIGHT SNOW AT KRST
AROUND 26.17Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 26.23Z. EXACT TIMING OF WORST
CONDITIONS MAY NEED FINE-TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES AND PRODUCES HEAVIER SNOW. LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST POSSIBLE BY 27.06Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO PERSIST
AT KLSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 261136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261009
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED SO DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH SNOW. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH AND A DUSTING IN THE SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING BUT WIND DIRECTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS.
MAY BE A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO SNOW TOTALS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HAVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR END
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MODELS TONIGHT
ARE DEPICTING AN EAST-WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS FEATURE
AT THIS POINT SINCE THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNTIL
THIS FEATURE GETS RESOLVED. MUCH WARMER AIR AT 850MB OR LACK OF
MOISTURE AROUND 700MB WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S. IT WILL TURN COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM
UP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 260938
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO
EASTERN TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT.  THE 150 KNOT UPSTREAM JET MAX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT ONLY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 500
MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE AREAS THIS EVENING.  A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH BOTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A DUSTING.

WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SNOW ON GROUND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING
POTENTIAL...BUT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL ADD SOME LAKE
WARMING.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO ERODE
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY COOLING THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT THE
SATURATED LAYER TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH
THE MORNING... SO LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE LIKELY.

THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C IN THE MORNING AND COOL TO -12 BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S EXCEPT TEENS TOWARD THE DELLS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING... THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

THE WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY FRIDAY... ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS WHILE THE WEAK LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MY LINGER... THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND
ELIMINATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THUS... ADDED A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DRY BY
THIS TIME... SO IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS... BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
40S ON SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO GIVE US DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... BUT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME
QUITE DIFFERENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER WI FOR WED SO I STUCK
WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH TRAPPED BELOW A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...ADDED LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND THE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS INLAND DURING THE DAY.

OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MADISON...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY VFR CIGS THERE...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WEST
OF MADISON.

MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260938
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO
EASTERN TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT.  THE 150 KNOT UPSTREAM JET MAX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT ONLY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 500
MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE AREAS THIS EVENING.  A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH BOTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A DUSTING.

WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SNOW ON GROUND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING
POTENTIAL...BUT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL ADD SOME LAKE
WARMING.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO ERODE
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY COOLING THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT THE
SATURATED LAYER TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH
THE MORNING... SO LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE LIKELY.

THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C IN THE MORNING AND COOL TO -12 BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S EXCEPT TEENS TOWARD THE DELLS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING... THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

THE WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY FRIDAY... ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS WHILE THE WEAK LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MY LINGER... THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND
ELIMINATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THUS... ADDED A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DRY BY
THIS TIME... SO IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS... BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
40S ON SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO GIVE US DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... BUT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME
QUITE DIFFERENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER WI FOR WED SO I STUCK
WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH TRAPPED BELOW A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...ADDED LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND THE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS INLAND DURING THE DAY.

OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MADISON...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY VFR CIGS THERE...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WEST
OF MADISON.

MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260938
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO
EASTERN TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT.  THE 150 KNOT UPSTREAM JET MAX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT ONLY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 500
MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE AREAS THIS EVENING.  A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH BOTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A DUSTING.

WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SNOW ON GROUND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING
POTENTIAL...BUT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL ADD SOME LAKE
WARMING.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO ERODE
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY COOLING THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT THE
SATURATED LAYER TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH
THE MORNING... SO LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE LIKELY.

THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C IN THE MORNING AND COOL TO -12 BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S EXCEPT TEENS TOWARD THE DELLS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING... THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

THE WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY FRIDAY... ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS WHILE THE WEAK LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MY LINGER... THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND
ELIMINATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THUS... ADDED A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DRY BY
THIS TIME... SO IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS... BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
40S ON SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO GIVE US DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... BUT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME
QUITE DIFFERENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER WI FOR WED SO I STUCK
WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH TRAPPED BELOW A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...ADDED LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND THE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS INLAND DURING THE DAY.

OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MADISON...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY VFR CIGS THERE...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WEST
OF MADISON.

MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260938
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND WILL MOVE EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO
EASTERN TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT.  THE 150 KNOT UPSTREAM JET MAX ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT ONLY WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG 500
MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST TENNESSEE AREAS THIS EVENING.  A
SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH BOTH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN AREAS WEST OF MADISON
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A DUSTING.

WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SNOW ON GROUND AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING
POTENTIAL...BUT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL ADD SOME LAKE
WARMING.

THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO ERODE
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEADILY COOLING THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT THE
SATURATED LAYER TO REMAIN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH
THE MORNING... SO LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE LIKELY.

THE 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C IN THE MORNING AND COOL TO -12 BY
EARLY EVENING. THIS MEANS STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
20S EXCEPT TEENS TOWARD THE DELLS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING... THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. THE
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUAL
SATURATION FROM THE TOP DOWN. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE AND THE
NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL ALL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE LINE.

THE WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY FRIDAY... ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUS...
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PROBLEM IS WHILE THE WEAK LIFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MY LINGER... THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND
ELIMINATE ANY ICE CRYSTALS. THUS... ADDED A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS ARE DRY BY
THIS TIME... SO IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE
A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ECWMF IS STILL
WARMER THAN THE GFS... BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE
40S ON SATURDAY. THE GFS WANTS TO GIVE US DRIZZLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... BUT I AM NOT BUYING INTO THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORCING DOES NOT SUPPORT THAT IDEA.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME
QUITE DIFFERENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER WI FOR WED SO I STUCK
WITH A CONSENSUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH TRAPPED BELOW A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  WITH A LIGHT EAST FLOW
DEVELOPING...ADDED LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD EXPAND THE MAINLY MVFR
STRATUS INLAND DURING THE DAY.

OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MADISON...LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY VFR CIGS THERE...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WEST
OF MADISON.

MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KARX 260938
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ISENTROPIC PUSH/850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAS
PRODUCING A COUPLE BANDS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA...MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD/INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY/6PM FOR DODGE AND MOWER COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MN AND MITCHELL/FLOYD/CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT EAST TO WEST GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL THROUGH TODAY DUE TO FRONTOGENESIS DYING OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND POTENTIAL COLUMN SATURATION ISSUES DUE TO DRIER SUB-
CLOUD LAYER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO. IN THE ADVISORY...THINKING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AGAIN WITH HIGHER-END AMOUNTS
IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE ADVISORY. FARTHER EAST...MAINLY UP TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
COULD OCCUR. LOOK FOR MAIN FORCING FROM THIS WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SNOW.

MEANWHILE...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COULD SEE 1/2-1 INCH OUT
OF THIS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE IT WRAPS UP/EXITS THE AREA SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TODAY. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS WITH CLEARING
SKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
READING NEAR ZERO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...LOOK FOR SUNNY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO ONLY TOP OFF IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SUCH THAT WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. ACROSS THAT AREA...1-2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH...MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR
SNOW GENERATION...TURNING INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. HAVE ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS BASED ON THIS
SIGNAL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN
THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER
NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THAT
AREA WITH THE NAM MODEL INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH RIPPLING
THROUGH AS WELL.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THAT DATE.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL COME TROUGH DRY THIS
TIME...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ARCTIC AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...PLAN
ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

AS THE HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...WARM
AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260834
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST MN...MOVING SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SNOW BANDS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAT IA. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY 3...TO
SOME PERHAPS A COUPLE POCKETS OF 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR TODAY. I ALSO INCLUDED
DODGE COUNTY IN THE ADVISORY...SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-
     094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 260516
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE 26.00Z KDVN SOUNDING SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN INTO THE AREA ON
THE SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES AS FAR WEST AT THE
MISSOURI RIVER AS OF 26.05Z. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORCING SIGNALS IN THE 26.00Z NAM AND GFS...THIS DRY AIR
WILL HELP TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE TREND NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
SNOW DUE TO THE DRY AIR. HAVE THUS PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE SNOW AND WILL NOW SHOW FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING DOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A GOOD SHARE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
PAST AND BROUGHT THE VISIBILITY UP TO VFR BUT KEPT THE CEILINGS
DOWN AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS UNDERNEATH
THE INVERSION SHOULD STAY SATURATED. ALSO DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SNOW AT KLSE WITH THE FLURRIES COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD THEN SEE JUST FLURRIES FOR THE LATE EVENING WITH
THE CEILINGS STAYING MVFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 260431
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260431
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260431
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260431
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND MAY REACH CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
REST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING BACK THE MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 260315
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...OR BRIEFLY CLEAR BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MRNG. /SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION/ OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPS IN THE WEST. LOWERED
TEMPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET GENERATED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE ON WED DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
SHOWS CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...AROUND 500FT THICK. HOWEVER STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. SOME ST REDEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AROUND KBUU LAST HOUR AS WELL. WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON WIDESPREAD...PROLONGED CLEARING
IN ERN TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN LIGHT
ONSHORE LATE TNGT INTO WED MRNG WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRATUS
RETURNING OR REDEVELOPING OVER LAKESHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260315
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...OR BRIEFLY CLEAR BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MRNG. /SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION/ OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPS IN THE WEST. LOWERED
TEMPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET GENERATED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE ON WED DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
SHOWS CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...AROUND 500FT THICK. HOWEVER STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. SOME ST REDEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AROUND KBUU LAST HOUR AS WELL. WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON WIDESPREAD...PROLONGED CLEARING
IN ERN TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN LIGHT
ONSHORE LATE TNGT INTO WED MRNG WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRATUS
RETURNING OR REDEVELOPING OVER LAKESHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260315
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...OR BRIEFLY CLEAR BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MRNG. /SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION/ OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPS IN THE WEST. LOWERED
TEMPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET GENERATED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE ON WED DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
SHOWS CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...AROUND 500FT THICK. HOWEVER STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. SOME ST REDEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AROUND KBUU LAST HOUR AS WELL. WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON WIDESPREAD...PROLONGED CLEARING
IN ERN TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN LIGHT
ONSHORE LATE TNGT INTO WED MRNG WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRATUS
RETURNING OR REDEVELOPING OVER LAKESHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260315
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...OR BRIEFLY CLEAR BUT RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MRNG. /SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION/ OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY IN THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
CIRRUS SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPS IN THE WEST. LOWERED
TEMPS OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET GENERATED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE ON WED DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE
SHOWS CLOUDS FAIRLY THIN...AROUND 500FT THICK. HOWEVER STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE CLOUDS AROUND 2K FEET. SOME ST REDEVELOPMENT NOTED
ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AROUND KBUU LAST HOUR AS WELL. WITH LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY...CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON WIDESPREAD...PROLONGED CLEARING
IN ERN TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN LIGHT
ONSHORE LATE TNGT INTO WED MRNG WHICH COULD RESULT IN STRATUS
RETURNING OR REDEVELOPING OVER LAKESHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 252328
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER THE MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES OR REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
25.18Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT GOES BY BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. THE 25.18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WHERE
THE MODELS DIFFER IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
OCCUR. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPARED TO THE NAM
AND THUS GENERATES MORE SNOW WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AS DOES THE 25.15Z SREF. SO FOR NOW...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST AROUND 12Z WITH A MVFR CEILING WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE
VISIBILITY ALSO GOING DOWN TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY NOT REACH EAST INTO
WISCONSIN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW JUST FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING AT KLSE BEFORE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 252328
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER THE MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES OR REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
25.18Z NAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT GOES BY BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-500 MB
LAYER. THE 25.18Z GFS IS VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WHERE
THE MODELS DIFFER IS WITH THE AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE THAT
OCCUR. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH BOTH OF THESE COMPARED TO THE NAM
AND THUS GENERATES MORE SNOW WITH THE 25.12Z ECMWF LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AS DOES THE 25.15Z SREF. SO FOR NOW...HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
FLURRIES COMING INTO KRST AROUND 12Z WITH A MVFR CEILING WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE
VISIBILITY ALSO GOING DOWN TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD COME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING. THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY NOT REACH EAST INTO
WISCONSIN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW JUST FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN
THE MORNING AT KLSE BEFORE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 252317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY DEPART EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
STATE. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER VFR CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ANOTHER APPROACHING AREA OF MVFR CIGS
OVER MINNESOTA WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY REACH CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE REST OF THE
REGION TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN STARTING WEDNESDAY ALSO INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF THESE
MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHICH MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 252153
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AT 3 PM...A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT HARVEY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SATURATION OF THE SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 26.06Z AND 26.09Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO
75 MB IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WENT WITH A 13-15 TO 1 SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS FAR AS QPF TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF. BELIEVE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE TOO MUCH
PHASING TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...THEREFORE...HIGHER QPF. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE 25.15Z
SPC SREFS FOR CHARLES CITY IOWA AND ALBERT LEA MINNESOTA CONTINUE
TO SHOW 3 DISTINCT SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST GROUP BRINGS THE SNOW INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND THEN CONTINUE TO SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SET OF 7 MODELS PRODUCE ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR CHARLES CITY AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR ALBERT LEA.
THE SECOND GROUP DEVELOPS SNOW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MUCH HIGHER RATES AND ALSO ENDS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. SNOW TOTALS
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FIRST FAMILY. THE REMAINING 5 MODELS HAVE
VERY LITTLE SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BRINGS UP TO AN INCH WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE FIRST SET OF MODELS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOWER IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA... AND MITCHELL...FLOYD...AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. FINALLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOUNDINGS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 SHOW UP TO 100 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO A 15 TO 1 RATIO. THIS RESULTS
IN SNOW TOTALS UP TO A HALF INCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT...AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 16 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME THAT WE HAD
A THANKSGIVING WITH A HIGH IN THE TEENS WAS 1958 WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS 19 DEGREES. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 11 THANKSGIVINGS
SINCE 1872 THAT HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS OR COLDER.
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THANKSGIVING IS 3 IN 1872.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE 200 TO
300 MB OF OMEGA LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS INTO THE 20-25 TO 1. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRY AIR
MOVING INTO AREAS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 94 AND 90. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE LIFT HAS NOT LEFT THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
OF 15 TO 30 ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ094.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     IAZ008-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 252051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 252051
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLOUD TRENDS WL BE THE KEY TO THE MIN TEMP FCST FOR TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD FCST FOR EARLY TNGT IS TRICKY. LOW CLDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. BUT THEY
HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT CELLULAR LOOKING ON STLT IMAGERY...INDICATING
THEY MAY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF
LOW/MID CLDS IS HEADING EWD FM E-C MN...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WL PASS
ACRS AT LEAST THE WRN/NWRN PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TNGT. A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF HIGH/MID CLDS WL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FM THE
PLAINS LATER IN THE NGT. SO WITH A FRESH DEEP SNOWCOVER AND LGT
WINDS...MIN TEMPS PRETTY MUCH COME DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE
ARE ANY CLR PERIODS DURING THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE E/NE PART
OF THE AREA WL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES DURING
THE EVENING. WENT WITH LOWEST TEMPS THERE...THOUGH ALWAYS HAVE TO
BE CONCERNED THAT N-C WI COULD JUST FREE-FALL WITH EVEN A SHORT
BREAK IN THE CLDS THERE. LOOKS LIKE THEY WL BE CLR RIGHT AFTER
SUNSET...SO TOOK TEMPS DOWN HARD THERE AT DUSK...THEN LET THEM
COME BACK DURING THE NGT AS CLDS INCREASE.

THE OTHER MAIN FCST ISSUE IS THE CHC FOR SNOW. STILL A FEW
FLURRIES ACRS THE AREA...SO WL LINGER THOSE INTO THE EVENING.
RADAR RETURNS FM ERN MN/WRN WI ALSO SUGGEST FLURRIES STILL
OCCURRING WITH THE AREA OF LOW CLDS HEADING IN FM THE W. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA TOMORROW. BUT THE LARGE AREA OF
RADAR ECHOS MOVG ESEWD ACRS ND ON THE RADAR MOSAIC HAS CERTAINLY
CAUGHT MY ATTENTION. DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THAT AREA OF
PCPN SHOULD TURN MORE SE AS THE UPR FLOW AMPLIFIES...BUT THAT WL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALSO ADDED CHC OF FLURRIES TO FAR ERN WI
TOMORROW AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD TURN ONSHORE AS SFC LOW HEADS
TOWARD IA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WEDS NGT INTO THU...AND
PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
THU NGT THROUGH SAT NGT...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER TROF AND LLVL CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR VILAS
COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIND
TRAJECTORIES WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHEN THE SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS WEDS EVG...AND SOME LLVL SHEAR MAY ALSO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT. BEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY...SO WILL ONLY CARRY 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMS FOR NOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WED NGT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGH LES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY THURSDAY IN VILAS COUNTY.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NGT/
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SWATH OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE WAA...
THEN LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY MIXED PCPN FRI NGT INTO
SAT NGT...BEFORE THE PACIFIC LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR FLOODS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
LOW.

AFTER THE BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KMKX 252050
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 252050
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST DECREASING
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...HAVE BUMPED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW PACK SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT.
WATCHING CLOUDS UPSTREAM AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT MAY DISRUPT
SOME OF THE COOLING. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS.

MODELS SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS EVEN MORE. LIMITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
AFTERNOON TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WITH THE
SNOW ON GROUND SHOULD HOLD TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS MILD AS
AIRMASS ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST GIVEN BARE GROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE.
LOWERED HIGHS A TOUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM MN INTO WI WED
NT AND EXIT THE STATE THU AM. THERE IS WEAK BUT ORGANIZED LIFT
WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHORT TIME OF SATURATION. WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD THAT VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. NWLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION TO WEAKEN BY THU AFTERNOON
AS POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. THE HIGH AND
INITIALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
THU EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING.

THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM FRI THROUGH
SAT NT. STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE
SOUNDINGS FROM THE TOP DOWN LATE THU NT WITH CHANCES OF LGT SNOW
OVER THE NW CWA. THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTENING WILL INCREASE
FRI AM AND BELIEVE SATURATION AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE. UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SAT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE PASSING LOW ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL ARRIVE LATE SAT NT WITH NWLY FLOW AND
COLD ADVECTION FOR SUN. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL ON MON
BEFORE ANOTHER WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR TUE AND BEYOND.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST DECREASING MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WATCHING MAINLY VFR CIGS UPSTREAM AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS NOT HANDLING THAT CLOUD COVER WELL AT
THE MOMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS. EITHER
WAY...DOES LOOK LIKE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON SNOW CHANCES DURING THE DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING OR SO POSSIBLE THEN FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS GO BACK DOWN AS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS REDUCED AT TIMES.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 251738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 251641
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TAF SITES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH OF THE STRATUS NOW PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE STRATUS OVER WESTERN MN OF THE VFR VARIETY HAS BEEN
MARCHING EASTWARD AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO STAY VFR WITH DRY
AIR HOLDING IN BELOW THE STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...CEILINGS LOOK TO
LOWER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS APPROACHES THE TAF SITES. RST IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND EVEN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION FOR SNOW
BEING CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT RST PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT
HEAVIER SNOW CAN REACH RST. AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251605 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE...BUT CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THIS EVENING...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE
EVENING...OR POSSIBLY LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL
DATA AS IT COMES IN AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEED BE. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A DUSTING OR
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251605 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE...BUT CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THIS EVENING...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE
EVENING...OR POSSIBLY LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL
DATA AS IT COMES IN AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEED BE. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A DUSTING OR
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251605 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE...BUT CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THIS EVENING...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE
EVENING...OR POSSIBLY LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL
DATA AS IT COMES IN AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEED BE. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A DUSTING OR
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251605 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE...BUT CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO THIS EVENING...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BUMP UP CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF FORECAST HIGHS...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO THE
EVENING...OR POSSIBLY LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEW MODEL
DATA AS IT COMES IN AND ADJUST TAFS AS NEED BE. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A DUSTING OR
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251139
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
539 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY WITH RISING CEILINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 251139
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
539 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY MIDDAY WITH RISING CEILINGS THROUGH
THE DAY. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 251137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS WI/SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. KRST HAS ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...CEILINGS AT KLSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 25.14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL AS SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT KLSE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN LATEST 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS. SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST
THROUGH 26.12Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 251137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS WI/SOUTHEAST MN/EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THIS MORNING. KRST HAS ALREADY SCATTERED OUT AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...CEILINGS AT KLSE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 25.14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
BETWEEN 2000 TO 2500 FT AGL AS SUBSIDENT DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AT KLSE WHERE MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOP...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN LATEST 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

VFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MN WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
MN. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AT BOTH
TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CLOUDS. SNOW ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF KRST
THROUGH 26.12Z. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS SNOW
TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 250954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS SNOW
TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 250942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 250942
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING FINAL SNOW BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY 6 AM WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THEN FOR TODAY...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR SOME CLEARING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRATUS MAY BE A BIT MORE PESKY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THINKING THIS
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE A BIT
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...THROUGH IOWA...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BULK OF SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN WILL LIKELY GET CLIPPED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST END IS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A ROCHESTER MN TO OELWEIN IA LINE.

MEANWHILE ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH MN INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING
PRETTY DECENT AMOUNT OF 1000-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOOK FOR THIS FRONT AND BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF IT EXITING BEFORE
THANKSGIVING DAYBREAK. THINKING THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

DRY/SUNNY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN
ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT....THEN TOP OFF IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94...TO
PERHAPS A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

LOOK FOR A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250940
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL END BY MID MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE
FINALLY GET INTO SOME RIDGING. THAT RIDGE WILL PROTECT US THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND
LOW DROPPING DOWN IN THE TEENS TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT
TRICKY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN...BUT IF WE STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR TOO LONG TEMPS COULD DROP A BIT MORE DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER PORTION OF IT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WI WED NIGHT... AND THIS IS THE ONE THAT
WILL BRING SOUTHERN WI THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
EVENT... WITH UP TO AN INCH OF DRY SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY DUE TO LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 INLAND WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
INCH POSSIBLE... LOWEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER.

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE JUST SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WILL GET INTO AN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE SURFACE TEMPS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN
WI BY THE TIME THE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE GFS PROFILE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE THE UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT
EARLIER THAN THE LOWER LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE WILL FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS HAS A MORE SHEARED VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE-AMPLIFIED ECMWF. THUS... THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUT WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE ECMWF IS WARMEST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS GIVES US A SHORTER WARM PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AND USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AS WE
COULD SEE EVEN WARMER TEMPS IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING US A
QUICK-HITTING COLD SNAP. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL END BY MID MORNING AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. ONCE CIGS LIFT TO VFR LEVELS...LOOK FOR THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED EARLY DUE TO
WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 250500
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE SNOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS LINGER WELL WEST OF THE
LOW THOUGH...WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING CLEARING OF THE
MVFR DECK AT KRST AROUND 11Z AND KLSE BY 14Z. SHOULD SEE SCT/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY TUE.

SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN FOR AN MVFR DECK AFTER 00Z WED /TUE
NIGHT/. RAP AND NAM12 RH FIELDS SUGGEST CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER ND
WILL SINK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER
LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT KRST...POSSIBLY KLSE. WILL ALLUDE TO IT FOR
NOW...ADDING IN A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD IN ADDITION TO BKN HIGH CIGS.
DO EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS TO RETURN ON WED AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LIKELY SEE SOME -SN TOO.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 250454 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS SNOW
TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 250454 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS SNOW
TAPERS OFF. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 250447 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 250447 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 250447 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 250447 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 250353 AAB
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
953 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 250349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATED...
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVING SHIFTED EAST...HAVE
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS - MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
JUST A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND
SECONDARY ROADS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 250349
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATED...
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVING SHIFTED EAST...HAVE
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS - MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
JUST A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND
SECONDARY ROADS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
835 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT -SN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CWA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST AS BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED 3-4 INCHES SO FAR AND EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES SO WL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY.

NMRS -SHSN TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CWA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WL
CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...WL EXTEND
ADVY UNTIL 12Z FOR COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
FOR PERSISTENT -SN CONTINUE AFT MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO REST OF HEADINE TIMING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER MOST TAF SITES...BUT GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXCEED 22 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
WL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QPF WISE THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERACHIEVED AND RATIOS WERE QUITE LOW
AT THE CHANGEOVER WITH A WET HEAVY BURST THEN A TRANSITION TO A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PACKET LIFTING NORTH IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN MN AND ERN
IA. BASED ON 88-D ANIMATION WILL HEAVIER SNOW WILL FOCUS THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
DOWNGRADED WARNING IN THE NORTH TO AN ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE SINCE WINDS...COLDER TEMPS AND THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 INCH EVENT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN RH WITH TIME. SO GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS EARLY
THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -9C SO
EXPECTING MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUE NT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WRN
PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. THUS MOST OF THE LGT
SNOW WILL NOW REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY
VERY LOW POPS ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED NT AND THU WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WED NT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW WITH THESE
FEATURES. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ALREADY
COLD TEMPS WILL GET COLDER ON THANKSGIVING AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND THE USA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS FOR SAT. COLD FROPA THEN
FOR LATE SAT NT AND SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH. COLD TEMPS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY BUT SLY FLOW AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME POCKET OF LIFR VSBYS
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SNOW FROM SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A LIGHTER TEXTURE SO
BLOWING SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY SO LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN AT LEAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 250235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
835 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT -SN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CWA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOUTH AND WEST AS BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED 3-4 INCHES SO FAR AND EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES SO WL BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY.

NMRS -SHSN TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST CWA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WL
CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVY IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...WL EXTEND
ADVY UNTIL 12Z FOR COLUMBIA...GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES
FOR PERSISTENT -SN CONTINUE AFT MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO REST OF HEADINE TIMING AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...-SN WITH MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER MOST TAF SITES...BUT GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...BLUSTERY WEST WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXCEED 22 KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY
WL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QPF WISE THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERACHIEVED AND RATIOS WERE QUITE LOW
AT THE CHANGEOVER WITH A WET HEAVY BURST THEN A TRANSITION TO A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PACKET LIFTING NORTH IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN MN AND ERN
IA. BASED ON 88-D ANIMATION WILL HEAVIER SNOW WILL FOCUS THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
DOWNGRADED WARNING IN THE NORTH TO AN ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE SINCE WINDS...COLDER TEMPS AND THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 INCH EVENT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN RH WITH TIME. SO GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS EARLY
THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -9C SO
EXPECTING MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUE NT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WRN
PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. THUS MOST OF THE LGT
SNOW WILL NOW REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY
VERY LOW POPS ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED NT AND THU WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WED NT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW WITH THESE
FEATURES. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ALREADY
COLD TEMPS WILL GET COLDER ON THANKSGIVING AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND THE USA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS FOR SAT. COLD FROPA THEN
FOR LATE SAT NT AND SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH. COLD TEMPS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY BUT SLY FLOW AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME POCKET OF LIFR VSBYS
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SNOW FROM SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A LIGHTER TEXTURE SO
BLOWING SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY SO LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN AT LEAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-057>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250108 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 250108 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 250108 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KGRB 250108 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH








000
FXUS63 KARX 242330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 242330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 242254
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
454 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 242254
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
454 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-
037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 242142
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SCHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SCHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242108
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QPF WISE THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERACHIEVED AND RATIOS WERE QUITE LOW
AT THE CHANGEOVER WITH A WET HEAVY BURST THEN A TRANSITION TO A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PACKET LIFTING NORTH IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN MN AND ERN
IA. BASED ON 88-D ANIMATION WILL HEAVIER SNOW WILL FOCUS THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
DOWNGRADED WARNING IN THE NORTH TO AN ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE SINCE WINDS...COLDER TEMPS AND THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 INCH EVENT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN RH WITH TIME. SO GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS EARLY
THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -9C SO
EXPECTING MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUE NT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WRN
PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. THUS MOST OF THE LGT
SNOW WILL NOW REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY
VERY LOW POPS ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED NT AND THU WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WED NT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW WITH THESE
FEATURES. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ALREADY
COLD TEMPS WILL GET COLDER ON THANKSGIVING AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND THE USA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS FOR SAT. COLD FROPA THEN
FOR LATE SAT NT AND SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH. COLD TEMPS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY BUT SLY FLOW AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AFTERWARD.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME POCKET OF LIFR VSBYS
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SNOW FROM SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A LIGHTER TEXTURE SO
BLOWING SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY SO LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN AT LEAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ051-052-
     058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 242108
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

QPF WISE THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERACHIEVED AND RATIOS WERE QUITE LOW
AT THE CHANGEOVER WITH A WET HEAVY BURST THEN A TRANSITION TO A
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. STILL SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PACKET LIFTING NORTH IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN MN AND ERN
IA. BASED ON 88-D ANIMATION WILL HEAVIER SNOW WILL FOCUS THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE
DOWNGRADED WARNING IN THE NORTH TO AN ADVISORY AND WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE SINCE WINDS...COLDER TEMPS AND THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 3-5 INCH EVENT.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN RH WITH TIME. SO GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS EARLY
THEN SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -9C SO
EXPECTING MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TUE NT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER WAVE AND LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO THE WRN
PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z THU. THUS MOST OF THE LGT
SNOW WILL NOW REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY
VERY LOW POPS ARE FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED NT AND THU WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WED NT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW WITH THESE
FEATURES. A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LINGER AT LEAST FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE. ALREADY
COLD TEMPS WILL GET COLDER ON THANKSGIVING AND THANKSGIVING NIGHT
DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY POLAR HIGH PRESSURE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA
AND THE USA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT. THE SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES
OF LGT SNOW ON FRI FOLLOWED BY MILD TEMPS FOR SAT. COLD FROPA THEN
FOR LATE SAT NT AND SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE POLAR HIGH TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTH. COLD TEMPS TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY BUT SLY FLOW AND
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED AFTERWARD.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME POCKET OF LIFR VSBYS
IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS INT THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE SNOW FROM SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A LIGHTER TEXTURE SO
BLOWING SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR
TUESDAY SO LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN AT LEAST FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ051-052-
     058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KGRB 242049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SNOW
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEAVIEST SNOW STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO
MARINETTE. CIGS/VSBYS TO BE REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FCST
TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALTHO
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO STILL BE FALLING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE AS A RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES
WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS






000
FXUS63 KGRB 242049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SNOW
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEAVIEST SNOW STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO
MARINETTE. CIGS/VSBYS TO BE REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FCST
TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALTHO
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO STILL BE FALLING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE AS A RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES
WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
048>050-073-074.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-036-037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-018-019-021-030-035.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KALLAS







000
FXUS63 KARX 242034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE WILL BE DROPPING THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AND
DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY. SNOW CONTINUES BUT WE DONT FEEL WE
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE 4.5 TO 5 INCHES THERE. A HIGHER END ADVISORY.
SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. HAVE ALSO ENDED THE
ADVISRY AT 06Z/12AM LIKE OTHER ADVISORIES.

COLLABORATED THIS DOWNGRADE WITH NWS SULLIVAN AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 242034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE WILL BE DROPPING THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AND
DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY. SNOW CONTINUES BUT WE DONT FEEL WE
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE 4.5 TO 5 INCHES THERE. A HIGHER END ADVISORY.
SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. HAVE ALSO ENDED THE
ADVISRY AT 06Z/12AM LIKE OTHER ADVISORIES.

COLLABORATED THIS DOWNGRADE WITH NWS SULLIVAN AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS63 KARX 241813
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 241813
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041-042-053>055-061.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ043-044.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW



000
FXUS63 KGRB 241720
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VERY UNUSUAL AND CHALLENGING WINTER STORM. PHASING
OF TWO UPPER JETS WILL PRODUCE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT ROCKETS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT DOES LEAVES BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH BACK INTO OUR AREA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE STORM
IS SO VIGOROUS THAT IT WILL DRIVE MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO WISCONSIN. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THIS
NICELY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT SNOWS ELSEWHERE.

THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY
WITH THESE PHASING SYSTEMS AND SO DO WE FORECASTERS. WAS INITIALLY
RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY BUT THE SNOW WILL BE THE FIRST REAL SNOW OF THE
SEASON IN MOST OF THIS AREA AND WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRIVE TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE FOR VILAS COUNTY THOUGH WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY.

THE SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER...AS THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY RETREATS.  UNTIL
THIS OCCURS...THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL CLIPPER
DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH WITH THIS CLIPPER...BUT THERE REMAINS TIMING/TRACK
ISSUES.  THE LATEST SREF IS THE CLOSEST TO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...AND
GIVEN THE RECENT CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS OF THE MODELS...WILL TRY TO
MINIMIZE ERROR.  THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE SEEMINGLY ALL OVER THE
PLACE AND ITS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE DETAILS OF ANY
SOLUTION.  WILL JUST SIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A BEEFY 140KT JET STREAM WILL DIVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE MORNING...AND REDUCE THEM ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.  THINKING LESS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL SHOW UNDER AN INCH IN THE FORECAST.  BUT THE AREA
COULD ALSO MISS ANY SNOW ENTIRELY.  THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE VILAS
COUNTY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION BUT AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE COUNTY COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THINK MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT...BUT THE SNOW THERE TOO SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN.  THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.  THEN SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF WARM
ADVECTION SNOWS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.  ONCE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SNOW
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEAVIEST SNOW STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO
MARINETTE. CIGS/VSBYS TO BE REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FCST
TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALTHO
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO STILL BE FALLING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE AS A RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES
WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ036-037-045-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-022-031-038>040-049-050-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-018-019-021-073.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241720
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VERY UNUSUAL AND CHALLENGING WINTER STORM. PHASING
OF TWO UPPER JETS WILL PRODUCE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT ROCKETS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT DOES LEAVES BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH BACK INTO OUR AREA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE STORM
IS SO VIGOROUS THAT IT WILL DRIVE MOISTURE ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO WISCONSIN. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THIS
NICELY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT SNOWS ELSEWHERE.

THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE DIFFICULTY
WITH THESE PHASING SYSTEMS AND SO DO WE FORECASTERS. WAS INITIALLY
RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY BUT THE SNOW WILL BE THE FIRST REAL SNOW OF THE
SEASON IN MOST OF THIS AREA AND WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRIVE TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL NOT
AS IMPRESSIVE FOR VILAS COUNTY THOUGH WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ADVISORY.

THE SNOW WILL END LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER...AS THE DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY RETREATS.  UNTIL
THIS OCCURS...THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS A POTENTIAL CLIPPER
DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING SOUTH WITH THIS CLIPPER...BUT THERE REMAINS TIMING/TRACK
ISSUES.  THE LATEST SREF IS THE CLOSEST TO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...AND
GIVEN THE RECENT CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS OF THE MODELS...WILL TRY TO
MINIMIZE ERROR.  THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE SEEMINGLY ALL OVER THE
PLACE AND ITS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE DETAILS OF ANY
SOLUTION.  WILL JUST SIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A BEEFY 140KT JET STREAM WILL DIVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE MORNING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE MORNING...AND REDUCE THEM ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.  THINKING LESS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL SHOW UNDER AN INCH IN THE FORECAST.  BUT THE AREA
COULD ALSO MISS ANY SNOW ENTIRELY.  THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE VILAS
COUNTY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION BUT AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE COUNTY COULD GET AN INCH OR TWO.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THINK MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE EXITED
THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE SNOW BELT...BUT THE SNOW THERE TOO SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN.  THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.  THEN SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF WARM
ADVECTION SNOWS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.  ONCE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NE WI THIS AFTERNOON
AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS EWD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SNOW
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HEAVIEST SNOW STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO
MARINETTE. CIGS/VSBYS TO BE REDUCED TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY
LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW. IMPROVEMENT IS NOT FCST
TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL AFTER MIDNGT WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN ALTHO
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY TO STILL BE FALLING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE AS A RDG OF HI PRES APPROACHES
WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ036-037-045-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-022-031-038>040-049-050-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ030-035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-018-019-021-073.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KMKX 241720
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AND
HAPPENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO BAND LIFTING NNE FROM SRN COUNTIES. THIS IS HELPING TO
FACILITATE THE CHANGEOVER. NAM QPF LOOKS OVERDONE HOWEVER
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE MODELS TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI. NICE NEGATIVE TILT
THERMAL TROUGH. 700-500 MILLIBAR VV INCREASES RAPIDLY. LINGERING
DEF ZONE WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STARTED OFF WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT TRENDED THEM HIGHER AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP
IN ON THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...IFR AND A FEW LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ACROSS
SRN WI. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A
LIGHTER TEXTURE SO BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY SO
LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE REST OF SRN
WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG OMEGA...15 TO 22
MICROBARS/SEC...IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

QPF MAX HAS SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE AXIS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI...AND WITH PROLONGED FORCING DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AXIS NOT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z
TUESDAY...LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH 3 TO
5 INCH ELSEWHERE. THESE AMOUNTS WERE PRODUCED EVEN AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR REDUCED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS.

THE WINDS WILL ADD A FURTHER COMPLICATION WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
BECOMING AN INCREASING PROBLEM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCE A LIGHTER CONSISTENCY
SNOW...JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
COULD BE EVEN LESS PER DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD BE UP NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
EARLY THIS MORNING EVOLVING INTO LIGHT RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL BE INTENSE AT TIMES...ACCUMULATING AT A RATE OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. TAF SITES
WILL SEE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING....WITH HIGHER
TOTALS TO THE NORTH. THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE HEAVY DUE TO A
HIGH WATER CONTENT...BUT WILL LIGHTEN IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

MARINE...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TIMING ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AS WEST WINDS WILL REACH CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON. WILL SEE A
FEW GALE GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.
HOWEVER A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ058>060-
     064>066-070>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     057-062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 241720
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES. FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY AND
HAPPENING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
LOOK TO BAND LIFTING NNE FROM SRN COUNTIES. THIS IS HELPING TO
FACILITATE THE CHANGEOVER. NAM QPF LOOKS OVERDONE HOWEVER
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE MODELS TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI. NICE NEGATIVE TILT
THERMAL TROUGH. 700-500 MILLIBAR VV INCREASES RAPIDLY. LINGERING
DEF ZONE WILL KEEP PRECIP GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STARTED OFF WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT TRENDED THEM HIGHER AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP
IN ON THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...IFR AND A FEW LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ACROSS
SRN WI. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CHANGE THE WET HEAVIER SNOW TO A
LIGHTER TEXTURE SO BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY SO
LESS WIND BUT CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AS WEST WINDS RAMP UP IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW. GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE
CRITERIA. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES AND
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE REST OF SRN
WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG OMEGA...15 TO 22
MICROBARS/SEC...IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN COOLS TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

QPF MAX HAS SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE AXIS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI...AND WITH PROLONGED FORCING DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH AXIS NOT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z
TUESDAY...LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH 3 TO
5 INCH ELSEWHERE. THESE AMOUNTS WERE PRODUCED EVEN AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR REDUCED SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
THE WINDS.

THE WINDS WILL ADD A FURTHER COMPLICATION WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
BECOMING AN INCREASING PROBLEM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCE A LIGHTER CONSISTENCY
SNOW...JUST IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH.

LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
ENDED UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
COULD BE EVEN LESS PER DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD BE UP NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
EARLY THIS MORNING EVOLVING INTO LIGHT RAIN THAT CHANGES TO SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL BE INTENSE AT TIMES...ACCUMULATING AT A RATE OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. TAF SITES
WILL SEE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING....WITH HIGHER
TOTALS TO THE NORTH. THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE HEAVY DUE TO A
HIGH WATER CONTENT...BUT WILL LIGHTEN IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

MARINE...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT TIMING ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AS WEST WINDS WILL REACH CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON. WILL SEE A
FEW GALE GUSTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING.
HOWEVER A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ058>060-
     064>066-070>072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ056-
     057-062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




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