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000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 061950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE CONTINUING FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PCPN TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS CONDITIONS HAVE NOT WORKED
OUT AS ANTICIPIATED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM
N-CNTRL WI SWWD TO SW WI WITH A STEADY MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THERE
WAS A SFC WAVE ON THE FRONT LOCATED OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WAS
HELPING TO GENERATE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER SHWRS OVER
W-CNTRL WI. A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER THE ERN HALF OF WI HAD
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RECOVER TO AROUND 80 DEGS AND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE A BIT.

THE FCST HAD PROBLEMS TO BEGIN WITH AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY LAST NGT AND MOVED
INTO WI THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF PCPN WEAKENED AS IT REACHED ERN
WI...BUT LEFT A BLANKET OF CLOUDS WHICH INHIBITED FURTHER SHWRS
AND TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. WL NEED TO WATCH CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF SEVERE NOW LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

THE CDFNT WL EXIT ERN WI THIS EVENING...HOWEVER TRAILING
STRATIFORM LIGHT SHWRS MAY LINGER OVER CNTRL WI TIL AROUND SUNSET
AND ERN WI TIL AROUND MIDNGT. ONCE THE PCPN ENDS...MODELS SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU MOST OF THE
NGT...THUS A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CLEARING
NOT OCCURRING TIL NEAR DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 50S E-CNTRL WI.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE
AND BRING COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR TO NE WI. OTHER THAN SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM 65-70 DEGS NORTH/
LAKESHORE...70-75 DEGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN A DRY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST LOWS COULD EVEN DIP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THESE VALUES. TEMPERATURES
THEN SLOWLY START TO MODERATE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
BRINGS THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD IT DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY THAT THE LOW WOULD
DISPLACE THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THE HIGH
WILL WIN OUT IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MURKY FARTHER OUT AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO PARSE OUT ANY DRY PERIODS AMONGST THE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS
THEMSELVES OFFERING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLARITY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARM AND
JUICY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS DEW POINTS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE CONTINUING FCST CHALLENGE REMAINS PCPN TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS CONDITIONS HAVE NOT WORKED
OUT AS ANTICIPIATED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM
N-CNTRL WI SWWD TO SW WI WITH A STEADY MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THERE
WAS A SFC WAVE ON THE FRONT LOCATED OVER CNTRL WI AND THIS WAS
HELPING TO GENERATE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVIER SHWRS OVER
W-CNTRL WI. A BREAK IN THE PCPN OVER THE ERN HALF OF WI HAD
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RECOVER TO AROUND 80 DEGS AND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE A BIT.

THE FCST HAD PROBLEMS TO BEGIN WITH AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY LAST NGT AND MOVED
INTO WI THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF PCPN WEAKENED AS IT REACHED ERN
WI...BUT LEFT A BLANKET OF CLOUDS WHICH INHIBITED FURTHER SHWRS
AND TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING. WL NEED TO WATCH CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF SEVERE NOW LOOKS
MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREAT.

THE CDFNT WL EXIT ERN WI THIS EVENING...HOWEVER TRAILING
STRATIFORM LIGHT SHWRS MAY LINGER OVER CNTRL WI TIL AROUND SUNSET
AND ERN WI TIL AROUND MIDNGT. ONCE THE PCPN ENDS...MODELS SHOW
THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THRU MOST OF THE
NGT...THUS A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CLEARING
NOT OCCURRING TIL NEAR DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR
40S N-CNTRL WI...TO THE UPR 50S E-CNTRL WI.

AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE
AND BRING COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR TO NE WI. OTHER THAN SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE 40S. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM 65-70 DEGS NORTH/
LAKESHORE...70-75 DEGS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...USHERING IN A DRY COOL AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST LOWS COULD EVEN DIP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S...HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THESE VALUES. TEMPERATURES
THEN SLOWLY START TO MODERATE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
BRINGS THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD IT DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY THAT THE LOW WOULD
DISPLACE THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS PER THE NAM SOLUTION. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTATIONS THE HIGH
WILL WIN OUT IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MURKY FARTHER OUT AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THIS POINT IT
IS DIFFICULT TO PARSE OUT ANY DRY PERIODS AMONGST THE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS
THEMSELVES OFFERING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLARITY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCY POPS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WARM AND
JUICY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS DEW POINTS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S
AND DAYTIME HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......AK


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 061945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING A DIMINISHING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINS ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALMOST ALL THE 06.12Z MESO SCALE MODELS HAD THE SCENARIO
WELL HANDLED AT 18Z AND INDICATE THAT BY 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA. THE DEFORMATION AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z OR FARTHER EAST. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE 60 TO 70
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR EAST AND DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND THEN HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA DRY BY 03Z.

ONCE THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE 50S BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE
TO BE ANY FOG ISSUES AS THE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD THROW SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED
NOT TO PUT FOG IN YET.

THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 06.12Z NAM IS
FARTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN OPENS AND
WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
COME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COME CLUSTERING IN THE MODELS OF
ONE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAY THEN START TO RESTRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWARD
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND
WILL HAVE UP TO SOME 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CARRY ANOTHER ROUND OF UP TO 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING A DIMINISHING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINS ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALMOST ALL THE 06.12Z MESO SCALE MODELS HAD THE SCENARIO
WELL HANDLED AT 18Z AND INDICATE THAT BY 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA. THE DEFORMATION AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z OR FARTHER EAST. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE 60 TO 70
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR EAST AND DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND THEN HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA DRY BY 03Z.

ONCE THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE 50S BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE
TO BE ANY FOG ISSUES AS THE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD THROW SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED
NOT TO PUT FOG IN YET.

THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 06.12Z NAM IS
FARTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN OPENS AND
WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
COME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COME CLUSTERING IN THE MODELS OF
ONE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAY THEN START TO RESTRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWARD
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND
WILL HAVE UP TO SOME 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CARRY ANOTHER ROUND OF UP TO 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING A DIMINISHING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINS ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALMOST ALL THE 06.12Z MESO SCALE MODELS HAD THE SCENARIO
WELL HANDLED AT 18Z AND INDICATE THAT BY 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA. THE DEFORMATION AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z OR FARTHER EAST. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE 60 TO 70
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR EAST AND DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND THEN HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA DRY BY 03Z.

ONCE THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE 50S BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE
TO BE ANY FOG ISSUES AS THE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD THROW SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED
NOT TO PUT FOG IN YET.

THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 06.12Z NAM IS
FARTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN OPENS AND
WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
COME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COME CLUSTERING IN THE MODELS OF
ONE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAY THEN START TO RESTRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWARD
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND
WILL HAVE UP TO SOME 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CARRY ANOTHER ROUND OF UP TO 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING A DIMINISHING AREA OF DEFORMATION RAINS ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALMOST ALL THE 06.12Z MESO SCALE MODELS HAD THE SCENARIO
WELL HANDLED AT 18Z AND INDICATE THAT BY 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA. THE DEFORMATION AREA OF
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z OR FARTHER EAST. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE 60 TO 70
PERCENT RANGE FOR THE FAR EAST AND DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS AND THEN HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA DRY BY 03Z.

ONCE THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL START TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE 50S BUT NOT EXPECTING THERE
TO BE ANY FOG ISSUES AS THE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. BETTER FOG POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD THROW SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...SO WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED
NOT TO PUT FOG IN YET.

THE 06.12Z GFS AND 06.00Z ECMWF THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASSING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH
THE RAIN STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 06.12Z NAM IS
FARTHER NORTH AND BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN OPENS AND
WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
COME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH COME CLUSTERING IN THE MODELS OF
ONE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAY THEN START TO RESTRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWARD
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO HELP FOCUS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND
WILL HAVE UP TO SOME 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO CARRY ANOTHER ROUND OF UP TO 50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061928
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

228 PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
BOTH TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO A BATCH OF
HAZE/SMOKE MARCHING SOUTH THROUGH MN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL SMOKE CONCERNS TOMORROW WITH SMOKE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061928
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

228 PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
BOTH TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO A BATCH OF
HAZE/SMOKE MARCHING SOUTH THROUGH MN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL SMOKE CONCERNS TOMORROW WITH SMOKE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 061928
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

228 PM UPDATE...HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR
BOTH TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO A BATCH OF
HAZE/SMOKE MARCHING SOUTH THROUGH MN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL SMOKE CONCERNS TOMORROW WITH SMOKE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 061736
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CDFNT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO
ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER SHWRS ACROSS NE WI UNTIL
FROPA OCCURS. CIGS OVER WI ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...HOWEVER NEAR
THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT...CIGS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED INTO THE HI-
END IFR/LOW-END MVFR CATEGORIES AND ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF WI. EVEN ONCE THE CDFNT CLEARS ERN WI...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS FOR A WHILE...THUS EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE NGT BEFORE MIXING AND ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR TUE MORNING ALLOWS FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 061727
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061727
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061727
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 061727
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES...BUT MORE PRECIPITATION
IS ON ITS WAY FROM CENTRAL MN...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWERS DUE
TO NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GROW THE SHOWERS INTO STORMS. AS
SUCH...ALL THUNDER HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS. LOOK FOR THE
SHOWERS TO CROSS RST BETWEEN 19-21Z AND AT LSE FROM 20-23Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGER ISSUE WITH AN MVFR
CLOUD DECK IN PLACE AT LSE AND MORE ON THE WAY JUST WEST OF RST.
BOTH TAF SITES SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING
EVIDENCED BY CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL MAKE INTO
THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A 7-15 KT
NORTHWEST WIND...TO HELP SCATTER OUT THE MVFR CLOUDS. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN...THE CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO THE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING. MUCH OF THE AREA IS
ENCOMPASSED BY CLOUDS...WITH SHOWERS NOW BEGINNING TO MARCH IN
FROM CENTRAL MN. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH ARE HOLDING BACK
INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...AJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 061541
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 061541
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE 7-9 AM TIME PERIOD
FROM WESTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...ALONG THE NOSE OF 925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN
IOWA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL TO THIS POINT...AND
THE NET RESULT HAS BEEN TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OTHER SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS IOWA INTO MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WI...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF TROUGHING IN WESTERN MN...AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK IN NORTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL TO AID IN THAT SHOWER
GENERATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN MN CONTINUES ITS MARCH
EAST...SO DOES THE BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE. THUS...A WET DAY REMAINS ON TAP.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF NEGATIVES FOR DEEPER CONVECTION /
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

1. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION HELPING TO FORCE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...SO WE LOSE THAT FORCING.

2. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD...CURRENTLY
FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO FARMINGTON MN. LESSER INSTABILITY WILL BOTH
IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.

3. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE MOSTLY MOIST ADIABATIC...NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER.

4. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN IA INTO EASTERN WI STABILIZED
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHORTENS THE TIME WINDOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE FRONT ARRIVAL.

THE NCEP HRRR AND GSD/BOULDER HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ABOUT THE
ONLY MODELS HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON ONGOING ACTIVITY. THEY BOTH
SUGGEST MAINLY A SHOWERY DAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE
AN OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL LATE TODAY. HAVE CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERALL.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE PLAN IS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO BE REMOVED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. HAVE
BEGUN TAILORING SERVICES TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 061131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 061131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 061131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 061131
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELICITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS
THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. LOOK FOR PREVALENT SHRA/TS AT KLSE AND KRST THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...THEN CLEARING THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE...PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
IFR. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AT KRST AND 04Z AT KLSE AS
DRIER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TDA INTO TNGT AS TSRA AND LOWER
CIGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WL ATTEMPT TO HIT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR THUNDER IN THE 12Z TAFS...THOUGH THE ACTUAL PERIOD WHERE
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WL PROBABLY BE 12-18 HRS AT ANY POINT IN THE
FCST AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR FLOODING.
COOLER AND DRIER TOMORROW.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CANADA WL FLATTEN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD. THAT WL ALLOW SOME
SEPARATION OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A SRN BRANCH
OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS. THE SRN STREAM WL INITIALLY BE
DOMINATED BY UPR TROF NR THE WEST COAST...BUT DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD AN UPR ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN CONUS.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING BACK INTO A MUCH WETTER WX REGIME.
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WL GENERATE SIG RAINFALL THE NEXT 24
HRS. THEN AFTER A FEW DRY DAYS...THE CHC FOR SIG RAINS WL RETURN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM. COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK...THEN READINGS WL RETURN TO AOA NORMAL
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH INCRG UPR SUPPORT WL PUSH ACRS
THE AREA TDA AND TNGT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...
SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEWLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE RGN. GIVEN THE UPR SUPPORT...INCRG MOISTURE...AND
WAVES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WL BE A SIG
PCPN EVENT. IT/S BEEN A LITTLE WHILE SINCE MOST AREAS HAD
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS...AND AT THIS POINT IT/S HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE HVY PCPN WL FOCUS. IT/S LIKELY WE/LL NEED
SOME ADVISORIES FOR URBAN/MINOR FLOODING AT SOME POINT LATER TDA.
IT/S ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
SITN COULD DEVELOP...BUT WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO DELINEATE THOSE
LOCATIONS AS OF YET...WL FOREGO A WATCH AND HANDLE WITH THE HWO.

EVEN THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ARE ELUSIVE. CONVECTION
GOT WAY AHEAD OF WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT TO BE OCCURRING
LATE YDA EVENING...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE WALL. EXPECT
CURRENT RAIN BAND TO MAKE IT INTO N-C WI THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THE S COULD AFFECT CENTRAL WI BY MID-LATE
MORNING...AND EVEN WORK INTO E-C WI. THOSE RAINS WOULD BE IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND WITH THE FRONT...WHICH IS LIKELY TO
CROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z-06Z TIME FRAME. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
INDIVIDUAL 1 HR POP FCST TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN 12 HR POP FOR
TDA WITH CATEGORICALS NW 1/2 RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE FAR SE
S...AND AN INVERSE OF THAT FOR TNGT...IS PRETTY HIGH.

HIGH CLDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. IF BREAKS IN
THE CLDS CAN DEVELOP...THEY WOULD GREATLY INCREASE THE SVR RISK
THIS AFTN. BUT AT THIS POINT THAT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. SPC
MAINTAINED MARGINAL RISK ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THEIR NEW DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THAT SEEMS RIGHT ON TARGET. BEST CHC FOR
SVR MAY BE FM WET MICROBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FLATTENED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  BUT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THIS WOULD PUT NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN
THE SO CALLED RING OF FIRE...OR AN AREA THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW
THIS PATTERN...BUT HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND.  TOUGH TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN.  REGARDLESS...WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
THEREAFTER.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE
NIGHT.  SOME COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI COULD SEE UPPER 30S FOR MINS.
HIGHS ON WEDS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...STILL TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT TONIGHTS RUNS HAVE
WAFFLED BACK TO THE DRY SIDE.  TEMPS WILL START A WARMING TREND BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  BY FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES.  THOUGH PRECIP
WILL PRIMARILY RESIDE SOUTH OF REGION ON FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE APPROACHING 90 IN MANY LOCALES IF
RAINFALL DOES NOT SURPRESS TEMPS.  BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TDA INTO TNGT AS TSRA AND LOWER
CIGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WL ATTEMPT TO HIT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD
FOR THUNDER IN THE 12Z TAFS...THOUGH THE ACTUAL PERIOD WHERE
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WL PROBABLY BE 12-18 HRS AT ANY POINT IN THE
FCST AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KMKX 060836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 060755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELECITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS THERE.
IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND KLSE
AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. IN THE STRONGER STORMS...THERE
MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.20Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 06.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.05Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 060755
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/
BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE
RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK.

NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN
TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER
TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE
BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO
AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST.
MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING
TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES
THIS WAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND
THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY
18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST
THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG
STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS
MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO
CENTRAL WI.

FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR -
EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO
HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT
IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR
SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE
UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY
00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE
POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELECITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS THERE.
IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI
NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE
GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING
SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER
MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN
SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING
A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH
CONSENSUS FOR NOW.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD
GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND KLSE
AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. IN THE STRONGER STORMS...THERE
MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.20Z AND AT KLSE AROUND
06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 06.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.05Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS
EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX
OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST
THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES
STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES
A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST
MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY
WITHIN REACH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060505
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING FOR AWHILE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING DURING THE DAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. IT MAY NOT EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060505
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING FOR AWHILE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING DURING THE DAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. IT MAY NOT EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060505
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING FOR AWHILE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING DURING THE DAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. IT MAY NOT EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060505
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1205 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING FOR AWHILE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING DURING THE DAY AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
DURING THE DAY. IT MAY NOT EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KARX 060455
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE
TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV
ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z
NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO
COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW
DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE
CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP
TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD
DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT
SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND
KLSE AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.20Z AND AT KLSE
AROUND 06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 06.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.05Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4
TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING
COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 060455
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE
TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV
ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z
NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO
COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW
DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE
CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP
TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD
DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT
SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND
KLSE AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.20Z AND AT KLSE
AROUND 06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 06.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.05Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4
TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING
COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 060214
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF THE NIGHT. AN
APPROCAHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
THE ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE IN RHINELANDER AND WAUSAU BY NOON BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT REACH LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 052347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE
TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV
ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z
NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO
COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW
DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE
CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP
TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD
DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT
SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AT KLSE AROUND 06.10Z AND
THEN DIMINISH AROUND 06.15Z.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND
KLSE AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MVFR. IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.19Z AND AT KLSE
AROUND 06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO WEST
INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST 2 TO 3 HOURS LATER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4
TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING
COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 052002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE
TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV
ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z
NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO
COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW
DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE
CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP
TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD
DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT
SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4
TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING
COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 052002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE
TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV
ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z
NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO
COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT
PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW
DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE
CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP
TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD
INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO
COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR
SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD
DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY
EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH
SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST
THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT
SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4
TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING
COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS
TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS
AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 051947
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......AK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 051947
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 051947
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE SVR POTENTIAL MON AFTERNOON AS A
CDFNT MOVES INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR POSSIBILITY...
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION APPEARING MORE LIKELY.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RETREATING AREA OF HI PRES OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS WITH A CDFNT EXTENDED NEWD THRU CNTRL SD...ERN ND/
WRN MN BORDER INTO WRN ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC PICKED UP A BAND OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE CDFNT. FINALLY...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY WIND WAS CONTINUING TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU THE
CNTRL CONUS TOWARD WI WITH DEW POINTS PUSHING 70 DEGS AS CLOSE AS
ERN IA.

RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AS THE PREVAILING
SOUTH WIND CONT TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO WI. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHC THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD REACH N-CNTRL WI BY DAYBREAK. FOR THE ERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PATCHY FOG TO HOLD THRU THE NGT. A MILD NGT IN STORE WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LWR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...GENERALLY MID 60S
ELSEWHERE WITH A FEW UPR 60S POSSIBLE.

THE CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE THRU NW WI MON MORNING AND ESSENTIALLY
BISECT THE STATE ROUGHLY FROM IMT-LSE BY 00Z TUE. A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE WL BE WAITING FOR THE FNT AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPR 60S AND PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 2.00". IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER AND REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY MON
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WOULD PROVIDE STRONGER FORCING ACROSS NRN
WI...ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS RAISED MOST OF THE
FCST AREA INTO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON
EVENING. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER INSTABILITY VALUES THAN THE
1500-2000 J/KG CAPES AND THE 5.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEW POINTS
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S...THUS OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY.
OVERALL...THIS LOOKS PRIMARILY LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SMALL
HAIL/WIND GUSTS IN THAT 30-40 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FCST AND HWO AS MOST LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UNDER A PERSISTENT TSTM. MUCH
OF THE SVR POTENTIAL WL COME DOWN TO HOW FAST CLOUDS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. MAX TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE LWR
TO MID 70S OVER N-CNTRL WI WHERE THE RAIN STARTS FIRST...TO THE
LWR TO MID 80S E-CNTRL WI (COOLER NEAR THE LAKE).

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME IN A BIT SLOWER THIS RUN THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS...LINGERING THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. GIVEN THE GENERAL TREND OF A SLOWER FROPA WILL ADJUST POPS
TO REFLECT A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE HEAVY RAIN AND ADD HEAVY
RAIN TO THE EVENING PERIODS.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL 500 TO 1000 J/KG
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 2
TO 2.5...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
GIVEN THE CAPE PROFILES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 14K FT
LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE SYSTEMS THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE THE TYPICAL SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SUFFICE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL MODERATE BACK
INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW 80S BACK IN THE
FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 051730
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT
RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE
KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING
IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z
TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 051729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 051729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 051729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 051729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 051729
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH CU FIELD TO BE IN THE 4K-5K FT RANGE. THESE CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN LATER
TNGT. VSBYS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...BUT NOT ANY LOWER AS
AN INCREASING S-SW WIND DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR THE
OVRNGT HOURS IN ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON AS A CDFNT PUSHES INTO WI.
PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/FEW STORMS MAY REACH CNTRL WI TAF SITES MID-LATE
MORNING...HOWEVER MAIN ACTION TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE AFTERNOON
ONCE THE CDFNT ARRIVES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LIMIT VSBYS
TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY TSTMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 051113
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE APPROACHING THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING KRST BY 10Z
AND KLSE AFTER 12Z. PLAN ON SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS/RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...KLSE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS AROUND 1.5KFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 050833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 050815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS
BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF BEING TOO
STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 050815
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING
ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE
WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST
HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE
REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET
GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY.
HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE
FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE.

AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG
RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT
PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE
SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000
M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A
LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY
COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST
BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE
SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS.

SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION
THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON
CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS
BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF BEING TOO
STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE TAF AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3.
ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES.
ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL
SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS.
MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 050815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG ACRS THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH DENSE FOG AS YDA. ONCE THAT BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...
GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA INTO THIS EVENING.
CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR FOG AGAIN TNGT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT WL MAKE ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING WARRANTS INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 050815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WARM TODAY...A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MUCH COOLER BY MID-WEEK.

A FAIRLY STG UPR TROF WL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL CANADA THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...THE SRN EXTENT OF WHICH WL INITIALLY EXTEND INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. THAT WL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY STG BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS. THEN AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACRS CANADA WANES DURING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...A SEPARATE SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL GRADUALLY EVOLVE FM
THE DESERT SW TO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WL START OF ABOVE NORMAL...COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN WARM AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ONE SYSTEM /MON-MON NGT/ THAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
PRODUCER...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PCPN EVENTS LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE EVOLVING SRN STREAM...AMNTS SEEM LIKELY TO END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

QUIET TODAY AND TNGT. PCPN ACRS NRN MN SEEMS TO HAVE GOTTEN E OF
WHERE THE MODELS WERE FCSTG IT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING NOW.
WILL KEEP WATCHING IT...BUT GIVEN THE STABLE AIR MASS ACRS THE
AREA IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WL DISSIPATE TO OUR W THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAIN SHORT-TERM FCST ISSUE IS PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON/MON NGT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING OF FROPA. THE NAM WAS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
SLOWER EURO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY TAIL OF SHRTWV
WRAPPING INTO DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPR TROF WL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE
FRONT. THE SLOWER MVMT OF THE FRONT WL ALLOW THE ERN 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA MORE OF A CHANCE TO WARM UP...SO BASED MAX TEMPS
PRIMARILY ON BLEND OF EURO AND SREF-BASED PRODUCTS.

SPC INDICATING A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...BASICALLY MAINTAINING THE FCST FM THE OLD DAY
3 OUTLOOK. THE BEST SHEAR WL LAG THE FRONT. BUT THE SLOWER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST THE E MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE
CONVECTION FM THE W ARRIVES...PROVIDED MID-HIGH CLDS FM CONVECTION
TO THE W DON/T TOTALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WL
CONT TO MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF HVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SVR WX IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND VERSUS BUILDING HEIGHTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUPPORT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO WILL USE THESE MODELS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE EVENING...WHILE IT PUSHES A STRONG FRONT
FROM CENTRAL WI TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ML
CAPES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER FAR NE WI TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
OVER EASTERN WI.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES WHICH MAKES
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS EVEN A BIGGER THREAT.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT ACROSS FAR EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
LOOK MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND FOR WEDNESDAY
TO CONTINUE THE QUIET CONDITIONS.  GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING AROUND
A LITTLE ABOUT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE FORECAST.  THOUGH ITS ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE
IF THE INITIALIZATION WAS DRY...WOULD HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS DRY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO OCCUR NEXT SAT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG ACRS THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH DENSE FOG AS YDA. ONCE THAT BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...
GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA INTO THIS EVENING.
CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR FOG AGAIN TNGT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT WL MAKE ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT
THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING WARRANTS INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 050450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY
FOG AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY
FOG WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR.
WITH THIS BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF
BEING TOO STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 050450
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY
FOG AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY
FOG WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR.
WITH THIS BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF
BEING TOO STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE
TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050342
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5
MILES IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 050054
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
754 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR
RANGE IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR IN SOME AREAS. IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS BESIDES SMOKE OR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 050054
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
754 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE MINIMAL CHC OF A SHWR
OR TSTM EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO WHAT AFFECT THE SMOKE PLUME
ALOFT WL HAVE ON TEMPS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED WNW-ESE ACROSS CNTRL WI (ROUGHLY FROM EAU-FOX CITIES). HI
PRES WAS SITUATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE RADAR MOSAIC REMAINED QUIET FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH A MIX OF FAIR WEATHER CU...HI CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

EVEN THO THE RADAR REMAINED QUIET THUS FAR...CANNOT DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY PCPN WOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALL IN ALL...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY FOR ANY 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS...AN INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT
INTO WI WL START TO LIFT THE REMAINS OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WRMFNT...REACHING THE UPR MI BORDER BY DAYBREAK (ASSUMING THE
BOUNDARY EVEN HOLD TOGETHER AS IT IS VERY WEAK). HAVE INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AS SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS TO
BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND DEW POINTS HOVER AROUND 60 DEGS. MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH TRANLATES TO READINGS
MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER WI BETWEEN HI PRES APPROACHING THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...WL BRING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WI RESULTING IN A PUSH OF WAA. 8H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND +15C AND WITH SKIES TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY...NE WI IS LOOKING AT PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
YEAR. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR LAKE MI...
TO THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND MAINLY MID 80S SOUTH. POTENTIAL IS
FOR TEMPS TO EVEN BE A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER...HOWEVER THE SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME NORTH WHICH SHOULD HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER A COMPLICATING FACTOR
WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WHICH MAY CAUSE ANVIL CLOUDS TO LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. UNDER IDEAL CIRCUMSTANCES HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD
REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH EVEN A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL PREVENT FORECAST HIGHS FROM REACHING THESE LOFTY
LEVELS WITH THIS FORECAST. INSTEAD WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...STAYING IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT WILL HAVE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO WORK WITH AS
WELL AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH THIS
SETUP...HOWEVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO STILL BE UP IN THE
AIR...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER THESE
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY GIVEN THE
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH CLOUDS AND A SMOKE LAYER ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR
RANGE IN SOME PLACES. GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH SOME SMOKE OR HAZE
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR IN SOME AREAS. IN GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS BESIDES SMOKE OR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......RDM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 042306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WE REMOVED
THE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO
CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE
SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE
TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO
SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID
OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR
THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES.

BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS
CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY
LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3
AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS
JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH
WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON
THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE
CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH
WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM
CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN
CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF
THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL
HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL
EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z.

WITH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG
AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG
WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.

WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE
2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5
KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE
BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK



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