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000
FXUS63 KARX 301132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA KEPT SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. THE COOLEST READINGS WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MANITOBA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST CANNOT SEE THE LOWER TO MID 60 SURFACE
DEW POINTS THAT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE ARW AND NMM. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THERE
MAY BE EVEN SOME UPPER 40 DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY
LOWERING THESE DEW POINTS...THE 1 TO 2K CAPES THAT ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE ARW AND NMM ARE VERY UNREALISTIC. THEY ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH SO MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY...WENT MORE
WITH RAP...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS WHICH KEPT THE AREA DRY. IF A
SHOWER OR STORM DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP IT WOULD...IT WOULD BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.

LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MAKE THEM RATHER SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS.
DUE TO THIS...NOT EXPECTING ANY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LIKE TODAY...THE MODEL DEW POINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH...SO LOWERED THEM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THIS WILL
LOWER THE SURFACE BASED CAPES BY 500 TO 1000 J/KG WHICH FITS WELL
WITH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG 0-1 KM CAPES. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND
LIFT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 30.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. 0-1 KM CAPES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 750 TO
1500 J/KG. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT WITH
MUCH OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...EXPECT THE STORMS
TO TRANSITION QUICKLY OVER TO A LINE OF STORMS. WITH THE
INSTABILITY BEING MAYBE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER DEW
POINTS /SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING DEW POINTS AROUND 70
DEGREES/...LIKE THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
IF SEVERE HAPPENS TO DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE 0-1 KM CAPES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2K AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. THE BEST SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM
LAYER. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE LINEAR
IN NATURE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE 2 TO 4C COOLER THAN THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 31.12Z. THERE MAY BE A
FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AT KLSE AND REMAINING WESTERLY AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS


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000
FXUS63 KGRB 301049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
549 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KRHI. HOWEVER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY BUT
GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301049
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
549 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KRHI. HOWEVER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY BUT
GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



000
FXUS63 KARX 300849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA KEPT SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. THE COOLEST READINGS WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MANITOBA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST CANNOT SEE THE LOWER TO MID 60 SURFACE
DEW POINTS THAT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE ARW AND NMM. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THERE
MAY BE EVEN SOME UPPER 40 DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY
LOWERING THESE DEW POINTS...THE 1 TO 2K CAPES THAT ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE ARW AND NMM ARE VERY UNREALISTIC. THEY ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH SO MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY...WENT MORE
WITH RAP...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS WHICH KEPT THE AREA DRY. IF A
SHOWER OR STORM DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP IT WOULD...IT WOULD BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.

LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MAKE THEM RATHER SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS.
DUE TO THIS...NOT EXPECTING ANY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LIKE TODAY...THE MODEL DEW POINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH...SO LOWERED THEM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THIS WILL
LOWER THE SURFACE BASED CAPES BY 500 TO 1000 J/KG WHICH FITS WELL
WITH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG 0-1 KM CAPES. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND
LIFT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 30.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. 0-1 KM CAPES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 750 TO
1500 J/KG. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT WITH
MUCH OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...EXPECT THE STORMS
TO TRANSITION QUICKLY OVER TO A LINE OF STORMS. WITH THE
INSTABILITY BEING MAYBE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER DEW
POINTS /SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING DEW POINTS AROUND 70
DEGREES/...LIKE THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
IF SEVERE HAPPENS TO DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE 0-1 KM CAPES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2K AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. THE BEST SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM
LAYER. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE LINEAR
IN NATURE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE 2 TO 4C COOLER THAN THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 300849
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
349 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AT 3 AM...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA KEPT SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. THE COOLEST READINGS WERE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MANITOBA...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. WITH SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...JUST CANNOT SEE THE LOWER TO MID 60 SURFACE
DEW POINTS THAT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE ARW AND NMM. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THERE
MAY BE EVEN SOME UPPER 40 DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY
LOWERING THESE DEW POINTS...THE 1 TO 2K CAPES THAT ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE ARW AND NMM ARE VERY UNREALISTIC. THEY ARE MORE LIKELY IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH SO MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY...WENT MORE
WITH RAP...NAM...ECMWF...AND GFS WHICH KEPT THE AREA DRY. IF A
SHOWER OR STORM DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP IT WOULD...IT WOULD BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.

LIKE YESTERDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES. THIS WOULD MAKE THEM RATHER SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS.
DUE TO THIS...NOT EXPECTING ANY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LIKE TODAY...THE MODEL DEW POINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH...SO LOWERED THEM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. THIS WILL
LOWER THE SURFACE BASED CAPES BY 500 TO 1000 J/KG WHICH FITS WELL
WITH THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG 0-1 KM CAPES. WITH THE BEST FORCING AND
LIFT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. IN ADDITION WITH THE DRY AIR AND QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...RAISED THE MODEL CONSENSUS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO
4 DEGREES.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 30.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. 0-1 KM CAPES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 750 TO
1500 J/KG. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...BUT WITH
MUCH OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...EXPECT THE STORMS
TO TRANSITION QUICKLY OVER TO A LINE OF STORMS. WITH THE
INSTABILITY BEING MAYBE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER DEW
POINTS /SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING DEW POINTS AROUND 70
DEGREES/...LIKE THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
IF SEVERE HAPPENS TO DEVELOP DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE 0-1 KM CAPES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2K AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. THE BEST SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM
LAYER. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE LINEAR
IN NATURE.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE 850 MB
TEMPERATURE 2 TO 4C COOLER THAN THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KGRB 300812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCING RAIN AND OTHERS NOT.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WERE DRY...THE 00Z NAM ONLY SPIT OUT A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF HAD
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER QPF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THAT SYSTEM EITHER. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY BUT GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 300812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WILL
TRACK ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THIS
REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS...SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS STILL DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 700
J/KG. GIVEN THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RAISE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS
FURTHER SOUTH. COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE AREA EXPERIENCED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
GUSTY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH...LOWER
THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FURTHER
SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RATHER QUICKLY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY...THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO.  SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH THE ECMWF SHOWS BETTER THAN
THE GFS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANNELED SHORTWAVES WILL BE
SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THEY
MAY BRING SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS AT TIMES...PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE TOO
DRY FOR ANY SHOWER THREATS.  THIS TREND CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WHEN
ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SHORTWAVES WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS AGAIN HAVE TROUBLE SATURATING BELOW
700MB SO THINK THE ECMWF IS TOO PESSIMISTIC IN GENERATING PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON.  WILL THEREFORE STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST.  PRECIP CHANCES
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THIS BACKING
FLOW WILL SUPPORT 925-700MB THETAE ADVECTION WHICH WILL BETTER
TARGET CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN FURTHER NORTH.  WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SOME...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE CURRENT DRY PATTERN.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION WEAKENS.  ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...SINCE
THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT.  CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT...EVEN
IF MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL BE WEAKENING ALONG IT.  A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT SOME INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVES PROVIDING OCCASIONAL
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCING RAIN AND OTHERS NOT.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WERE DRY...THE 00Z NAM ONLY SPIT OUT A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF HAD
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER QPF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THAT SYSTEM EITHER. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY BUT GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 300737
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THE BEST APPROACH.  WE REMAIN IN A VERY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS...TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MAIN EMPHASIS FROM VORT
MAX PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE/850 TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. VERY DRY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS KEEPING THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 925 TEMPS SHOW
AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS
REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL STEER
TOWARDS A BLEND ESP GIVEN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH DECENT
MIXING CAN WARM EFFICIENTLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER NOT MUCH TO
LATCH ONTO. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES NUDGE INTO THE STATE. SOME
950/925 WAA RETURNS. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS
ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PROGS SUGGEST SOME DRYING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD. FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOLER REGIME TAKES HOLD. GETTING
SOME SINGLE DIGIT CELSIUS 850 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
ECMWF ONLY A SMIDGE WARMER.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED WAA BRINGS SOME POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN ANYTHING SIGGY HERE NOT
GREAT THOUGH AS 850/925 BAROCLINICITY PROGGD TO REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A
GLANCING SHOT HERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300737
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THE BEST APPROACH.  WE REMAIN IN A VERY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS...TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MAIN EMPHASIS FROM VORT
MAX PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE/850 TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. VERY DRY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS KEEPING THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 925 TEMPS SHOW
AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS
REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL STEER
TOWARDS A BLEND ESP GIVEN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH DECENT
MIXING CAN WARM EFFICIENTLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER NOT MUCH TO
LATCH ONTO. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES NUDGE INTO THE STATE. SOME
950/925 WAA RETURNS. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS
ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PROGS SUGGEST SOME DRYING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD. FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOLER REGIME TAKES HOLD. GETTING
SOME SINGLE DIGIT CELSIUS 850 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
ECMWF ONLY A SMIDGE WARMER.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED WAA BRINGS SOME POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN ANYTHING SIGGY HERE NOT
GREAT THOUGH AS 850/925 BAROCLINICITY PROGGD TO REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A
GLANCING SHOT HERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300737
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THE BEST APPROACH.  WE REMAIN IN A VERY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS...TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MAIN EMPHASIS FROM VORT
MAX PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE/850 TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. VERY DRY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS KEEPING THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 925 TEMPS SHOW
AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS
REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL STEER
TOWARDS A BLEND ESP GIVEN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH DECENT
MIXING CAN WARM EFFICIENTLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER NOT MUCH TO
LATCH ONTO. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES NUDGE INTO THE STATE. SOME
950/925 WAA RETURNS. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS
ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PROGS SUGGEST SOME DRYING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD. FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOLER REGIME TAKES HOLD. GETTING
SOME SINGLE DIGIT CELSIUS 850 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
ECMWF ONLY A SMIDGE WARMER.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED WAA BRINGS SOME POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN ANYTHING SIGGY HERE NOT
GREAT THOUGH AS 850/925 BAROCLINICITY PROGGD TO REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A
GLANCING SHOT HERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300737
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VERY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST THIS PERIOD. PERSISTENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS THE BEST APPROACH.  WE REMAIN IN A VERY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP MIXING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AND
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS...TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SWIFT NW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MAIN EMPHASIS FROM VORT
MAX PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SURFACE/850 TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. VERY DRY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO WITH ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS KEEPING THEM IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 925 TEMPS SHOW
AROUND 20-22C WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER 925 TEMPS WHICH IS
REFLECTED WITH THE HIGHER MOS NUMBERS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL STEER
TOWARDS A BLEND ESP GIVEN THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW WITH DECENT
MIXING CAN WARM EFFICIENTLY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER NOT MUCH TO
LATCH ONTO. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES NUDGE INTO THE STATE. SOME
950/925 WAA RETURNS. WILL KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT SURGE OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE CONSENSUS
ON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND THIS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PROGS SUGGEST SOME DRYING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
WORKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH COMBINE FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS PERIOD. FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON SO BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE MORNING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOLER REGIME TAKES HOLD. GETTING
SOME SINGLE DIGIT CELSIUS 850 TEMPS FROM THE 00Z GFS WITH THE
ECMWF ONLY A SMIDGE WARMER.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE AND RENEWED WAA BRINGS SOME POPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN ANYTHING SIGGY HERE NOT
GREAT THOUGH AS 850/925 BAROCLINICITY PROGGD TO REMAIN FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH WITH ONLY A
GLANCING SHOT HERE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 300451
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO MISSOURI. THE WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN THURSDAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE GUSTS THURSDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING ONCE THE INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 300441
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCING RAIN AND OTHERS NOT.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WERE DRY...THE 00Z NAM ONLY SPIT OUT A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF HAD
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER QPF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THAT SYSTEM EITHER. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY BUT GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 300441
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY WITH SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCING RAIN AND OTHERS NOT.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN WERE DRY...THE 00Z NAM ONLY SPIT OUT A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF HAD
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER QPF. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING BUT MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THAT SYSTEM EITHER. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY BUT GUSTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PARCHED THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER
PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CIRRUS TO SRN WI. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IN THE LATE MRNG/AFTN. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER COASTAL AREAS EXTENDING
UP TO 5K FEET ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TAPPING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.

MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 300240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PARCHED THROUGH THURSDAY...HOWEVER
PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
CIRRUS TO SRN WI. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS IN THE LATE MRNG/AFTN. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER COASTAL AREAS EXTENDING
UP TO 5K FEET ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TAPPING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS ONCE AGAIN...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
CLOSER TO SHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.

MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 292357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE.
MODELS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY
BUT THEY DO NOT ALL HAVE QPF WITH IT...SO HAVE STUCK WITH A DRY
FORECAST WITH JUST SOME CU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 292357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE.
MODELS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY
BUT THEY DO NOT ALL HAVE QPF WITH IT...SO HAVE STUCK WITH A DRY
FORECAST WITH JUST SOME CU DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 292301
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS TODAY WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE
MIXING. THESE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY ONCE THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 292301
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS TODAY WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE
MIXING. THESE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY ONCE THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 292301
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GUSTY
WEST WINDS TODAY WILL SETTLE DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE
MIXING. THESE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY ONCE THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292201
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292201
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292201
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292201
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
501 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NO CHANGE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE AS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED THRESHOLD OF
22 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 292035
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 292035
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. WE WILL THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LOOK FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE PROVIDING PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING  23 MPH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THESE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CUMULUS
CLOUD FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/GFS ALONG WITH SOME
MESOSCALE MODELS GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CAPPED BY THEN WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE SAME PATTERN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY  OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN WITH THIS WAVE. THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES
INTO THE 700 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. SO A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. A COLD
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. SHEAR AND CAPE COULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN EXACT DETAILS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO REGION FROM CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENTUALLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO MISSOURI WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
BEMAIN IN PLACE. WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP LOWS AROUND 60
DESPITE THE CLER SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A 90 KNOT SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TO
MODERATE VALUES FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 700 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS A WEST 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KNOTS FRIDAY. AN 18 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON FRIDAY AS
8950 MB DEWPOINTS ALSO RISE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO 1000
TO 1500 JOULES/KG ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...BUT A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
AROUND 700 MB DOES RESULT IN AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING. THE GFS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
OVERALL DRY SOUNDING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE. A DRY 700 MB BEGINS TO INCREASE A LITTLE TOWARD
EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RATHER LOW AND MIX OUT TOWARD
NOON...BUT RISE LATE SATURDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO THE 00Z ECMWF DROPS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA MORE INTO
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

.MARINE...

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KTS NEAR SHEBOYGAN AND POSSIBLY
DOWN THROUGH MILWAUKEE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 291953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY WAS PASSING
ACROSS ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AT MOST LOCATIONS. WAUSAU DID TAP THE EVEN HIGHER WINDS ALOFT...
WITH A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH EXPECTED AT MOST PLACES FROM LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY BE A TAD BIT STRONGER OVER NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WEST WIND WILL MOVE OVER THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE BAY OF GREEN BAY.

ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED ON THE MODELS. HAVE ADDED
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THIS FEATURE. MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED HIGH BASE CONVECTION
AROUND 8000 FEET. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN OUT IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...EVEN ON THE LAKESHORE.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTUBANCES GREAT LAKES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW AS THEY IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONCENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL FAST MOVING WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN OR UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE THAT MAY
HAVE A CHANCE OF GENERATING SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD
BE THE ONE TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY. BEST GUESS IS THAT THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WOULD BE SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAK SURFCACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL
KEEP VERY LOW CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
A COUPLE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE
REGION. ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE PRONONCED IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GENERATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IOWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH GENERALLY STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS INDICATE MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER IMPULSE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WHICH COULD IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
CENRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z MONDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE AT THE WHIM
OF THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THUS LEANED ON THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KARX 291726
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 291726
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 291726
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 291726
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...WITH P6SM SKC EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A SEASONABLY DRY
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 6K FT...IS RESULTING IN BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25KT G25-35KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU...BUT DIURNAL
WARMING/DEEP MIXING STILL LOOKS TO RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT
G20-25KT FOR LATE THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291554 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291554 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291554 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291554 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291554 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 291534 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI THEN SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.GUID SO FOR NOW HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 291534 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT EXITED SOUTHEAST WI EARLIER THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
INCREASES. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI AND AROUND 20 IN FAR SE WI THEN SUBSIDING DURING THE
EVENING.GUID SO FOR NOW HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 291128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 30.12Z IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL RANGE...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO NEARLY 7000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS AT THE RUNWAY IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 291128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 30.12Z IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL RANGE...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO NEARLY 7000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS AT THE RUNWAY IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 291128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 30.12Z IN THE
WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN THE 5000 TO 6000 FT AGL RANGE...OTHERWISE
EXPECT SUNNY SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO NEARLY 7000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT FREQUENT WESTERLY GUSTS AT THE RUNWAY IN THE 25
TO 30 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
MUCH HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
MUCH HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
MUCH HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH RELATIVELY DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
MUCH HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WITH
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 290823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 290823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY TODAY. WITH
DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER DESPITE MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
THE BEST THIS FRONT CAN MUSTER IS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KGRB RAOB
SOUNDING. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AND JUST GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WRAPPED
UP LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 5K FT WILL BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
THE TREND OF COOLER THAN MOS TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
YESTERDAY.

THE REGION DRIES OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SITUATED ACROSS HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM...WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE MIDDLE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN OCCASIONAL NORTHERN STREAM COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...THE
TROPICAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.  LOOKING AT
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO PREFER ITS SOLUTION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE MID-CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH.  THIS FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE IN THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITHOUT MUCH
FANFARE.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE IS
LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW RANGE ABOVE 10 KFT.  AWFULLY TEMPTING TO GO
DRY AS A RESULT...BUT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE
FORECAST.  FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  CONTINUED QUIET ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND ON
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.  UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT THOUGH.
TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KARX 290803
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MARQUETTE MICHIGAN TO VINTON
IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE AROUND
70. MEANWHILE IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CLAYTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH THE MESO MODELS SHOWING THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY 29.10Z...THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY
TODAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...MOST AREAS WILL MIX UP TO 800 MB.
THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIXED TO THE
SURFACE AT TIMES BETWEEN 29.16Z AND 30.01Z.

WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ROUNDING THE WESTERN RIDGE. DUE TO MODERATETO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT...THESE SYSTEM WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EVERY 12 TO 24 HOURS. INITIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO PARCHED IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

WITH SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY BELOW 800 MB AND ONLY
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS HAVE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY THAT MODERATE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS /FAVORABLE
FOR LINE OR LINES OF STORMS/...THE 0-1 KM CAPES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ONLY BE UP TO 1000 J/K...SO THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SO DID NOT MAKE TOO
ANY MODIFICATIONS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290735
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290735
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF
MILWAUKEE BY MID MORNING.  AN IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF MOISTURE RESIDES
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE A MID LEVEL TROF
PUSHING IN AT THIS WRITING THAT/S HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME DEEPER
OMEGA. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE GENERALLY WEAK...SO HOPING WE CAN GET A
QUICK...DECENT RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. THEN LOOK FOR THINGS TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH DRIER BUT
NOT THAT MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID DAY AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INDICATED ON THE HI RES MODELS FOR US TO MIX
OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS. THAT/S A TOUGH ONE TO ACCEPT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH AG CROPS AT FULL TILT.  SO...LOOKING AT
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IS GREAT UNLESS YOU/RE A LEAFY PLANT NEEDING WATER.

A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS VLY AND
CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A
GLANCING SHOT OF DCVA HERE HOWEVER DRY AIRMASS SUPPORTS KEEPING
POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGIT MOS GUIDE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 22-24C RANGE SO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
WITH COLUMN AS DRY AS IT IS AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE POTENTIALLY LOWER THAN GUID SO FOR NOW
HAVE STEERED DRIER IN THIS REGARD.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS WITH PARADE OF VORTS CONTINUING
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A SURFACE/850 FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME CAPE
HOWEVER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DRY. WILL HOLD OFF ON PRECIP
MENTION AT THIS POINT. COLLAB WITH KLOT ON THIS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WITH
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WHILE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT 850 TROUGH AXES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH
SOME INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT TO RETAIN THE
SUPERBLEND POPS THIS PERIOD.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF IS QUICKER ON EXITING THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE
GFS LINGERS LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY IN THE DAY. HAVE LEFT THE
SLIGHT SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT IF CURRENT
CONSENSUS/TRENDS HOLD THIS WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS A COOLER INFLUX OF 925 TEMPS ABOUT 5C COOLER THAN THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT SHOULD
EXIT EAST OF MILWAUKEE BY 13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...SO SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IT SHOULD CLEAR KMSN BY 09-10Z
THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING QUICKLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE FOR
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL GUST TO NEAR 25KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. LOOK FOR THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>645.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290610
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290610
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290610
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290610
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OPTED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST HRRR...WHICH SHOWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENDED UP
CONFINING TEMPO GROUP WITH SHOWERS TO A 2 HOUR PERIOD AT TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AT AUW/CWA/RHI AND 09Z-11Z AT
GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...WITH MVFR CIG AND VSBY DURING THE SHOWERS. ONCE
THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THOUGH THE AREA SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE. MUCH HIGHER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY ONCE MIXING BEGINS. THINKING AROUND 20 KTS OR SO
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 33 KTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 290437
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 290437
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 290437
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 290437
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KRST THIS EVENING AND WILL
HAVE GONE THROUGH KLSE BY 06Z. SHOWERS COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE 29.02Z
HRRR-CR SHOWING THESE MISSING KLSE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO DO
NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN EITHER
TAF. STILL EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE INVERSION
MIXES OUT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS STILL EXPECT
UPSTREAM AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO CLIP SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO PIVOT MORE WESTERLY WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION RUMBLING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS MAIN FORCING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF
SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER BUT MOSTLY
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED WED MRN.

&&

.MARINE...FOR NOW KEPT NORTHERN ZONE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
LATER WED MRNG THRU THE AFTN. BOTH RAP AND EARLIER GFS WERE
INDICATING STRONGER WINDS GUSTS AFFECTING NEAR SHORE WATERS THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. IF 00Z NAM COMES IN WITH SIMILAR VALUES...THEN
NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND SMALL CRAFT TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS STILL EXPECT
UPSTREAM AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO CLIP SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO PIVOT MORE WESTERLY WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION RUMBLING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS MAIN FORCING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF
SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER BUT MOSTLY
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED WED MRN.

&&

.MARINE...FOR NOW KEPT NORTHERN ZONE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
LATER WED MRNG THRU THE AFTN. BOTH RAP AND EARLIER GFS WERE
INDICATING STRONGER WINDS GUSTS AFFECTING NEAR SHORE WATERS THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. IF 00Z NAM COMES IN WITH SIMILAR VALUES...THEN
NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND SMALL CRAFT TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS STILL EXPECT
UPSTREAM AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO CLIP SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO PIVOT MORE WESTERLY WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION RUMBLING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS MAIN FORCING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF
SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER BUT MOSTLY
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED WED MRN.

&&

.MARINE...FOR NOW KEPT NORTHERN ZONE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
LATER WED MRNG THRU THE AFTN. BOTH RAP AND EARLIER GFS WERE
INDICATING STRONGER WINDS GUSTS AFFECTING NEAR SHORE WATERS THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. IF 00Z NAM COMES IN WITH SIMILAR VALUES...THEN
NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND SMALL CRAFT TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AS STILL EXPECT
UPSTREAM AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO CLIP SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. UNIMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINNING TO PIVOT MORE WESTERLY WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION RUMBLING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPRESS MAIN FORCING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF
SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. CIGS SHOULD LOWER BUT MOSTLY
REMAIN VFR WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED WED MRN.

&&

.MARINE...FOR NOW KEPT NORTHERN ZONE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
LATER WED MRNG THRU THE AFTN. BOTH RAP AND EARLIER GFS WERE
INDICATING STRONGER WINDS GUSTS AFFECTING NEAR SHORE WATERS THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. IF 00Z NAM COMES IN WITH SIMILAR VALUES...THEN
NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND SMALL CRAFT TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS NOT AS
GOOD AS ONE WOULD LIKE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CONFINED TO IOWA. THERE WAS JUST A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...IN EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THAT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
LOCAL MESO GRAPHICS INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG
THERE AT 23Z BUT THAT AREA ALSO HAD 50-100J/KG OF CIN. THERE WAS
A MULTITUDE OF CLOUD HEIGHTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 23Z BUT
OBSERVATION SITES ALL INDICATED VFR CIGS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FOG PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
THUNDER.

THE 22Z HRRR HAD MORE AREAL COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO NOT
SO SURE ABOUT PREVAILING VCSH THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST BUT DID NOT
REMOVE SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS
WERE MOST 65 TO 70F IN THE AREA. ALSO...THE HRRR BROUGHT CONVECTION
FROM IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD
DAYBREAK...SO THUNDER MAY ONLY IMPACT OSH/MTW/ATW/GRB TAF SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. 925MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE AT 12Z SO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 33 KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS NOT AS
GOOD AS ONE WOULD LIKE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CONFINED TO IOWA. THERE WAS JUST A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...IN EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THAT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
LOCAL MESO GRAPHICS INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG
THERE AT 23Z BUT THAT AREA ALSO HAD 50-100J/KG OF CIN. THERE WAS
A MULTITUDE OF CLOUD HEIGHTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 23Z BUT
OBSERVATION SITES ALL INDICATED VFR CIGS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FOG PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
THUNDER.

THE 22Z HRRR HAD MORE AREAL COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO NOT
SO SURE ABOUT PREVAILING VCSH THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST BUT DID NOT
REMOVE SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS
WERE MOST 65 TO 70F IN THE AREA. ALSO...THE HRRR BROUGHT CONVECTION
FROM IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD
DAYBREAK...SO THUNDER MAY ONLY IMPACT OSH/MTW/ATW/GRB TAF SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. 925MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE AT 12Z SO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 33 KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS NOT AS
GOOD AS ONE WOULD LIKE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CONFINED TO IOWA. THERE WAS JUST A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...IN EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THAT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
LOCAL MESO GRAPHICS INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG
THERE AT 23Z BUT THAT AREA ALSO HAD 50-100J/KG OF CIN. THERE WAS
A MULTITUDE OF CLOUD HEIGHTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 23Z BUT
OBSERVATION SITES ALL INDICATED VFR CIGS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FOG PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
THUNDER.

THE 22Z HRRR HAD MORE AREAL COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO NOT
SO SURE ABOUT PREVAILING VCSH THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST BUT DID NOT
REMOVE SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS
WERE MOST 65 TO 70F IN THE AREA. ALSO...THE HRRR BROUGHT CONVECTION
FROM IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD
DAYBREAK...SO THUNDER MAY ONLY IMPACT OSH/MTW/ATW/GRB TAF SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. 925MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE AT 12Z SO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 33 KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS NOT AS
GOOD AS ONE WOULD LIKE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CONFINED TO IOWA. THERE WAS JUST A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...IN EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THAT IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
LOCAL MESO GRAPHICS INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG
THERE AT 23Z BUT THAT AREA ALSO HAD 50-100J/KG OF CIN. THERE WAS
A MULTITUDE OF CLOUD HEIGHTS ACROSS WISCONSIN AT 23Z BUT
OBSERVATION SITES ALL INDICATED VFR CIGS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FOG PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
THUNDER.

THE 22Z HRRR HAD MORE AREAL COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO NOT
SO SURE ABOUT PREVAILING VCSH THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST BUT DID NOT
REMOVE SINCE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS
WERE MOST 65 TO 70F IN THE AREA. ALSO...THE HRRR BROUGHT CONVECTION
FROM IOWA INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD
DAYBREAK...SO THUNDER MAY ONLY IMPACT OSH/MTW/ATW/GRB TAF SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. 925MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE AT 12Z SO HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 33 KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 282304
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS MINNESOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. STILL VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT AND THE TRENDS IN THE 28.20Z HRRR-CR AND 28.21Z HRRR
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT LIKELY PASSING THROUGH WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT MOST ALONG IT. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A VCTS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PRETTY EXPANSIVE
SHIELD OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE CEILINGS VFR.
ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
WEST AND THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY RAPIDLY. ONCE THE
INVERSION GETS MIXED OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND ENTIRE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CURRENT CONVECTION IN IOWA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS REMAIN
IN THAT AREA. MAY INCLUDE SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH IN CASE THEY BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOULD SEE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH SOME BREAKS AT TIMES.

A TOUGH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
POPS WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH THE QPF.

THE SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MODEST AT BEST...WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A PASSING BUT MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWN...WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...AROUND OR OVER 2.00 INCHES.

THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...SO
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THERE AND THINGS MAY BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TIME LIKELY POPS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR.
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST SEVERE RISK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST
GUSTS...AROUND 25 TO 28 KNOTS OR SO. THE MIXING AND DRIER AIRMASS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH FULL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL PREVAIL OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS GIVES A WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
BREEZY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THU AND FRI. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS FRI
AFT BUT THE MIXING WILL LIMIT THE CAPE...AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL
BE WEAK SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SRN WI WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SAT WITH A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FOR SAT NT AND SUN. THUS A RETURN OF HIGH THETAE AIR IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL INTO MON
SO TSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE. THE AREA MAY GET A BREAK FROM TSTORM
CHANCES OF TUE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME
EROSION OF THESE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
TAF SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR...SO
MAY GO WITH JUST SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER IN TAFS FOR NOW.
THIS WOULD BE FOR A THREE OR FOUR HOUR PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT EACH SITE.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST MARINE
ZONE...PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SIMILAR GUSTS
MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS WELL IN THIS AREA.

THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE FREQUENT WEST GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KARX 282031
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282031
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282031
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282031
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281741
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z KGRB RAOB...THESE STORMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A WALL OF
VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS CAPTURED RATHER
WELL WITH THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH
BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIMITING
POPS TO THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SPILLS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT...THERE COULD BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK ACCORDING TO
THE SPC OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
LACK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD...IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HI-RES MODEL
RUNS INDICATING THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SPOTTY INSTEAD OF A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND THE LESS THAN ENCOURAGING HI-RES MODEL RUNS WILL NOT
RAISE POPS BEYOND LIKELY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EMBEDDED
GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM TIME TO TIME WILL OFFER QUICK SHOTS AT SOME RATHER MODEST
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
EVIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE NOTABLE
COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND A BRIEF PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY
WARM DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THUS SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA THUS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS WERE IN THE BALL PARK ON TIMING OF FROPA IN THE SUNDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STILL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED...UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEYOND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLEND WHICH GIVES LOW END POPS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281741
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z KGRB RAOB...THESE STORMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A WALL OF
VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS CAPTURED RATHER
WELL WITH THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH
BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIMITING
POPS TO THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SPILLS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT...THERE COULD BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK ACCORDING TO
THE SPC OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
LACK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD...IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HI-RES MODEL
RUNS INDICATING THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SPOTTY INSTEAD OF A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND THE LESS THAN ENCOURAGING HI-RES MODEL RUNS WILL NOT
RAISE POPS BEYOND LIKELY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EMBEDDED
GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM TIME TO TIME WILL OFFER QUICK SHOTS AT SOME RATHER MODEST
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
EVIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE NOTABLE
COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND A BRIEF PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY
WARM DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THUS SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA THUS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS WERE IN THE BALL PARK ON TIMING OF FROPA IN THE SUNDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STILL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED...UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEYOND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLEND WHICH GIVES LOW END POPS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281741
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z KGRB RAOB...THESE STORMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A WALL OF
VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS CAPTURED RATHER
WELL WITH THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH
BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIMITING
POPS TO THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SPILLS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT...THERE COULD BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK ACCORDING TO
THE SPC OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
LACK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD...IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HI-RES MODEL
RUNS INDICATING THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SPOTTY INSTEAD OF A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND THE LESS THAN ENCOURAGING HI-RES MODEL RUNS WILL NOT
RAISE POPS BEYOND LIKELY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EMBEDDED
GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM TIME TO TIME WILL OFFER QUICK SHOTS AT SOME RATHER MODEST
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
EVIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE NOTABLE
COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND A BRIEF PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY
WARM DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THUS SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA THUS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS WERE IN THE BALL PARK ON TIMING OF FROPA IN THE SUNDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STILL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED...UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEYOND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLEND WHICH GIVES LOW END POPS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281741
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z KGRB RAOB...THESE STORMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A WALL OF
VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS CAPTURED RATHER
WELL WITH THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH
BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIMITING
POPS TO THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SPILLS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT...THERE COULD BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK ACCORDING TO
THE SPC OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
LACK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD...IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HI-RES MODEL
RUNS INDICATING THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SPOTTY INSTEAD OF A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND THE LESS THAN ENCOURAGING HI-RES MODEL RUNS WILL NOT
RAISE POPS BEYOND LIKELY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EMBEDDED
GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM TIME TO TIME WILL OFFER QUICK SHOTS AT SOME RATHER MODEST
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
EVIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE NOTABLE
COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.

AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND A BRIEF PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY
WARM DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THUS SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA THUS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS WERE IN THE BALL PARK ON TIMING OF FROPA IN THE SUNDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STILL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED...UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEYOND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLEND WHICH GIVES LOW END POPS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



000
FXUS63 KARX 281719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A
SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. THIS SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... THERE IS A
700 TO 500 MB WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH
DAKOTA TO OTTUMWA IOWA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

FOR THIS MORNING...MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOING
WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THE ARW...NMM...HRRR...CR HRRR...AND SPC WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
BETWEEN 28.11Z...AND REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 28.15Z.
THIS LINE THEN WEAKENS AS THE UPPER FORCING OUTRUNS THIS LINE AND
THE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 2.3 INCHES. THIS
ALONG WITH 4 TO 4.5 KM WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS...THESE STORMS WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SHOCKED SEE
RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN HIGHER THAN
THAT. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH
THIS LINE AND DONOVAN VALUES OF 40 TO 45K FEET...NOT
ANTICIPATION ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE. HOWEVER WITH THIS
SAID THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN AREAS TO SEE SOME FLOODING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WANE
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO IOWA. IN ADDITION...THE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0-1 KM CAPES
FROM MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCERN ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO LOWERED THE
RAIN CHANCES. WITH THIS SAID... MAY NOT HAVE BEEN LOW ENOUGH YET.
WITH THE BEST SHEAR REMAINING BELOW 3 KM...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION
TO BECOME LINEAR...SO WILL HAVE WATCH OUT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE SOME LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE STORMS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 4.5 KM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES...SO JUST WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 281719
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A
SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. THIS SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... THERE IS A
700 TO 500 MB WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SIOUX FALLS SOUTH
DAKOTA TO OTTUMWA IOWA. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

FOR THIS MORNING...MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DOING
WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THE ARW...NMM...HRRR...CR HRRR...AND SPC WRF ARE SHOWING THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
BETWEEN 28.11Z...AND REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 28.15Z.
THIS LINE THEN WEAKENS AS THE UPPER FORCING OUTRUNS THIS LINE AND
THE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB
DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 2.3 INCHES. THIS
ALONG WITH 4 TO 4.5 KM WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS...THESE STORMS WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SHOCKED SEE
RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EVEN HIGHER THAN
THAT. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH
THIS LINE AND DONOVAN VALUES OF 40 TO 45K FEET...NOT
ANTICIPATION ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE. HOWEVER WITH THIS
SAID THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN AREAS TO SEE SOME FLOODING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WANE
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO IOWA. IN ADDITION...THE RAIN COOLED AIR WILL LIKELY SLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0-1 KM CAPES
FROM MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 1 TO 2K RANGE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
CONCERN ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...SO LOWERED THE
RAIN CHANCES. WITH THIS SAID... MAY NOT HAVE BEEN LOW ENOUGH YET.
WITH THE BEST SHEAR REMAINING BELOW 3 KM...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION
TO BECOME LINEAR...SO WILL HAVE WATCH OUT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE SOME LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE STORMS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
AROUND 2.1 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 4.5 KM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES...SO JUST WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.

TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 281547 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1047 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA...DRIVEN MAINLY BY 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PASSING
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE FIRST BATCH HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING
TRENDS IN THE PAST FEW RADAR SCANS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE SECOND AREA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER EASTERN IOWA IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE IS A COLD POOL BEHIND
IT...SO THIS MAY CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOW FAR EAST IS THE BIG QUESTION.

THE TWO HRRR MODEL VERSIONS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...WITH ONE TAKING IT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER WIPING IT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. KEPT LOWER POPS TO THE EAST OF THERE...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET.

MEAN LAYER CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY HIGH...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. COULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS...IF
THEY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S.
STILL MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MADISON MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS MAY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THERE. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL MAKE IT THERE
TOO. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS IN TAF BUT MAY LEAVE OUT
THUNDER. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF TODAY. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS TAF
SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER WEST TO EAST IN TAFS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT QLCS COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MID DAY.
THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. BUT IT WILL
BE GOING THROUGH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION...SO ANTICIPATING
JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL GET BEFORE WIPING OUT IS CHALLENGING. THE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. I/LL KEEP
IT MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON. THEN WE SHOULD BE QUIET FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 23-24C
RANGE...SO ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG
WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FOR TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
REACHING MADISON TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED BY A RATHER WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CONVECTION.  MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BY ABOUT
AN INCH...TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES BY THIS EVENING.  HOW THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THUS...THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP. THE MID LEVELS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALREADY THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. GIVEN THAT DISTANCE...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT ROUND WILL MOSTLY STAY BACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AS
FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. JUST CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LEADING SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RIBBON OF HIGH
SFC DEWPOINTS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AS WELL. CAPE
VALUES ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...IN THE 700-1300J/KG RANGE. HOPEFULLY...WE
CAN GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT
QUITE A BIT LATELY.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT EXITS ERN WI VERY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING SHRA. HOWEVER WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE. EXPECTING A DROPOFF IN DEW
POINTS BUT NOT SO IN THE TEMP DEPT. SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ONCE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EXITS ERN WI.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING BY ACRS NRN
WI AND INTO THE U.P. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING HERE WITH 925
TEMPS RISING BACK UP...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WHERE 925 TEMPS SURGE
AS HIGH AS 26C. SO WITH THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RATHER WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SRN WI WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH
PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH. GFS SHOWS SPOTTY PRECIP THOUGH NOT MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT TO LATCH ONTO. SPOTTY PRECIP ON GFS IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN DRIER THAN THE 12Z RUN. PER COLLAB
WITH KLOT HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS THAT
WERE SHOWN FOR THE ERN CWA.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S IN THE WORKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT GENERATE PRECIP THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG WNW UPPER FLOW
PERSISTING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KMSN. THEREFORE LOOK FOR QUIET...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KMSN
WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND A FEW HOURS LATER
AT KMKE/KUES/KENW. THE STORMS SHOULD WE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 281547 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1047 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA...DRIVEN MAINLY BY 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PASSING
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE FIRST BATCH HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING
TRENDS IN THE PAST FEW RADAR SCANS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE SECOND AREA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER EASTERN IOWA IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE IS A COLD POOL BEHIND
IT...SO THIS MAY CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOW FAR EAST IS THE BIG QUESTION.

THE TWO HRRR MODEL VERSIONS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...WITH ONE TAKING IT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER WIPING IT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. KEPT LOWER POPS TO THE EAST OF THERE...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET.

MEAN LAYER CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY HIGH...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. COULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS...IF
THEY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S.
STILL MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MADISON MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS MAY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THERE. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL MAKE IT THERE
TOO. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS IN TAF BUT MAY LEAVE OUT
THUNDER. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF TODAY. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS TAF
SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER WEST TO EAST IN TAFS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT QLCS COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MID DAY.
THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. BUT IT WILL
BE GOING THROUGH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION...SO ANTICIPATING
JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL GET BEFORE WIPING OUT IS CHALLENGING. THE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. I/LL KEEP
IT MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON. THEN WE SHOULD BE QUIET FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 23-24C
RANGE...SO ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG
WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FOR TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
REACHING MADISON TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED BY A RATHER WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CONVECTION.  MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BY ABOUT
AN INCH...TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES BY THIS EVENING.  HOW THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THUS...THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP. THE MID LEVELS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALREADY THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. GIVEN THAT DISTANCE...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT ROUND WILL MOSTLY STAY BACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AS
FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. JUST CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LEADING SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RIBBON OF HIGH
SFC DEWPOINTS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AS WELL. CAPE
VALUES ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...IN THE 700-1300J/KG RANGE. HOPEFULLY...WE
CAN GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT
QUITE A BIT LATELY.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT EXITS ERN WI VERY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING SHRA. HOWEVER WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE. EXPECTING A DROPOFF IN DEW
POINTS BUT NOT SO IN THE TEMP DEPT. SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ONCE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EXITS ERN WI.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING BY ACRS NRN
WI AND INTO THE U.P. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING HERE WITH 925
TEMPS RISING BACK UP...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WHERE 925 TEMPS SURGE
AS HIGH AS 26C. SO WITH THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RATHER WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SRN WI WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH
PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH. GFS SHOWS SPOTTY PRECIP THOUGH NOT MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT TO LATCH ONTO. SPOTTY PRECIP ON GFS IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN DRIER THAN THE 12Z RUN. PER COLLAB
WITH KLOT HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS THAT
WERE SHOWN FOR THE ERN CWA.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S IN THE WORKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT GENERATE PRECIP THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG WNW UPPER FLOW
PERSISTING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KMSN. THEREFORE LOOK FOR QUIET...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KMSN
WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND A FEW HOURS LATER
AT KMKE/KUES/KENW. THE STORMS SHOULD WE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




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