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000
FXUS63 KARX 242250
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVING SOME SERIOUS CONCERNS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TOO.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPING SOUTH...NOW INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA HAS COME TO A HALT DUE TO THE COMPLEX
MOTION...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
2030Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWED 10C OR HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM 770-600MB AND A DEEP INVERTED-V AT 800MB.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX SHOWING UP AS A SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF CLEARING OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN...DRYING IN THE SAME
LOCATION ON WATER VAPOR...AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 2
MB/HR.

ITS TOUGH FINDING A MODEL WITH A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS CURRENT
COMPLEX. THE 24.21Z RAP...24.19Z HRRR AND 24.18Z GFS SEEM TO BE
THE BEST AND ALL THREE SUGGEST THAT THE EVENING MAY NOW END UP
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX. IN FACT...GIVEN THE CLEARING UPSTREAM...ITS POSSIBLE
THAT CLEARING COMES INTO THE AREA. NEXT CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND COLD POOL
IN PLACE OVER MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION MAY END FIRING MORE ALONG THE
WESTERN MN/IOWA BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALONG WITH THE
24.12Z ECMWF AND EVEN TO SOME DEGREE THE 24.18Z NAM ALL SHOW THAT
IDEA. IF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AN MCV...THEN THE CONVECTION WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND STAY MOSTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
WHAT THE 24.18Z NAM AND 24.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...IF
NO MCV FORMS...A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
07Z...PERHAPS REACHING THE MS RIVER BY 12Z.

FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN SOME FOR THE
EVENING AND FURTHER DECREASES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
OVERNIGHT YET...BUT COULD SEE A NEED TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT IS A FLUID SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WAS THE STORMS/WEATHER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TALE OF TWO AIR MASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 24.12Z RAOBS SHOWING STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS /9C PER KM/ AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER N-S MOIST PLUME IN
PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUES AT KBIS/KABR BOTH ARE BOTH
OVER 125 PERCENT THIS MORNING. KBIS AND KABR SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW
SATURATION AROUND 700MB WITH 500-1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE
700MB. EAST OF THE MOIST PLUME...STABILITY REIGNS WITH 5-6C/KM
500-700MB LAPSE RATES AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES /65 PERCENT/ AT
KMPX. THIS GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AT 16Z MATCHED WELL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AND
WEATHER IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS ALL ENHANCED BY A VERY VISIBLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWRD OF KBIS AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE MT/ND/SRN
CANADA BORDER.

AS THE LARGE SCALE SHIFTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WEAKENS...FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES /THROUGH SATURDAY/. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMING AND
RICHER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A PERIOD...BEFORE
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS OCCURS /SUNDAY/.
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...THE DAKOTAS AIR MASS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
AND INTO THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT ALSO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN. WHILE THIS HAS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM 8C TO 12-14C
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION TO SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO A 600 J/KG SBCIN. THIS
CAP BUILDING HAS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY.

PRIOR TO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDING IN FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE /700MB/ TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND LAPSE RATES WOULD SAY
SOME MID-LEVEL TOWERING CU COULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS
/100-300J/KG MUCAPE/. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE CONVECTION ENTERING
WESTERN MN AND WHILE MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED
FROM 15-18Z...MUCH OF MN IS STILL QUITE STABLE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN SIDE SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE 700 MB TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FARGO. WOULD EXPECT ECHO TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD I-35...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK
FORCING...THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT
TIMING LOOKS TO FIT THE EVENING INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A 40-
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB FEED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME UP THE . BY 09Z...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON VERY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB /50KTS DECREASING TO 15 KTS...KDSM
TO KLSE/. THIS SIGNAL IS VERY CONSISTENT AMONG THE 24.12Z MODELS
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND THIS COULD POSE
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE COMPLEX MISSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WOULD THINK A MISS IS PROBABLY UNLIKELY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
THE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94...ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RAIN CHANCES WERE MADE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVER
1.75 INCHES IN THE AREA BY MORNING AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM.
THUS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN THE SYSTEM...BUT MANY
AREAS CAN USE THE RAINS. SOME BRIEF CITY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISS RIVER IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF
CONVERGENCE/FORCING AND ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SPC HAS ALSO
SHIFTED THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO NEAR OUR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA EDGE...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE. CAPPING SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM IN SRN WISCONSIN AS THE
CAP IS STILL FULLY IN PLACE WITH NO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
ALLOWED PER ALL GUIDANCE /600 SBCIN AND 700MB TEMPS NEAR 14C/.
YET A HANDFUL OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE A SIGNAL OF QPF
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
THERE AS IT WOULD BE SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD HAVE TO
BE TAPPED NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING THROUGH ERN IA. THE
24.12Z NAM DOES HAVE SOME 900-800MB FRONOTGENESIS WORKING WITHIN
THE CAPPED AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATES
STABLE SHOWERS. PREFER THE 24.12Z NAM WITH RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER
THIS SITUATION FRIDAY EVENING.

A DRYING TREND THEN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH
SATURDAY PROVIDES A VERY NICE DRY DAY. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLEWATER
AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR.

STRONG QG CONVERGENCE FORCING MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN/WI AS THE LONG WAVE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. FORCING COMES IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS
STRONGEST SUNDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE PULLED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TRACK. A CLOUDY BREEZY
SHOWERY DAY FOR MOST AREAS IT SEEMS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON WHEN THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
OVER THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TAKEN VISIBILITIES DOWN A BIT...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO ADD IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR YET SINCE THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
RST/LSE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 242250
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVING SOME SERIOUS CONCERNS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT TOO.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPING SOUTH...NOW INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA HAS COME TO A HALT DUE TO THE COMPLEX
MOTION...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
2030Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWED 10C OR HIGHER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS FROM 770-600MB AND A DEEP INVERTED-V AT 800MB.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX SHOWING UP AS A SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF CLEARING OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN...DRYING IN THE SAME
LOCATION ON WATER VAPOR...AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS UP TO 2
MB/HR.

ITS TOUGH FINDING A MODEL WITH A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS CURRENT
COMPLEX. THE 24.21Z RAP...24.19Z HRRR AND 24.18Z GFS SEEM TO BE
THE BEST AND ALL THREE SUGGEST THAT THE EVENING MAY NOW END UP
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COMPLEX. IN FACT...GIVEN THE CLEARING UPSTREAM...ITS POSSIBLE
THAT CLEARING COMES INTO THE AREA. NEXT CONCERN THEN TURNS TO THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND COLD POOL
IN PLACE OVER MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION MAY END FIRING MORE ALONG THE
WESTERN MN/IOWA BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALONG WITH THE
24.12Z ECMWF AND EVEN TO SOME DEGREE THE 24.18Z NAM ALL SHOW THAT
IDEA. IF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AN MCV...THEN THE CONVECTION WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND STAY MOSTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
WHAT THE 24.18Z NAM AND 24.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGESTED. HOWEVER...IF
NO MCV FORMS...A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
07Z...PERHAPS REACHING THE MS RIVER BY 12Z.

FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN SOME FOR THE
EVENING AND FURTHER DECREASES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE
OVERNIGHT YET...BUT COULD SEE A NEED TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT IS A FLUID SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WAS THE STORMS/WEATHER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TALE OF TWO AIR MASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 24.12Z RAOBS SHOWING STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS /9C PER KM/ AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER N-S MOIST PLUME IN
PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUES AT KBIS/KABR BOTH ARE BOTH
OVER 125 PERCENT THIS MORNING. KBIS AND KABR SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW
SATURATION AROUND 700MB WITH 500-1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE
700MB. EAST OF THE MOIST PLUME...STABILITY REIGNS WITH 5-6C/KM
500-700MB LAPSE RATES AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES /65 PERCENT/ AT
KMPX. THIS GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AT 16Z MATCHED WELL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AND
WEATHER IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS ALL ENHANCED BY A VERY VISIBLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWRD OF KBIS AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE MT/ND/SRN
CANADA BORDER.

AS THE LARGE SCALE SHIFTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WEAKENS...FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES /THROUGH SATURDAY/. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMING AND
RICHER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A PERIOD...BEFORE
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS OCCURS /SUNDAY/.
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...THE DAKOTAS AIR MASS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
AND INTO THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT ALSO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN. WHILE THIS HAS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM 8C TO 12-14C
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION TO SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO A 600 J/KG SBCIN. THIS
CAP BUILDING HAS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY.

PRIOR TO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDING IN FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE /700MB/ TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND LAPSE RATES WOULD SAY
SOME MID-LEVEL TOWERING CU COULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS
/100-300J/KG MUCAPE/. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE CONVECTION ENTERING
WESTERN MN AND WHILE MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED
FROM 15-18Z...MUCH OF MN IS STILL QUITE STABLE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN SIDE SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE 700 MB TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FARGO. WOULD EXPECT ECHO TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD I-35...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK
FORCING...THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT
TIMING LOOKS TO FIT THE EVENING INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A 40-
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB FEED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME UP THE . BY 09Z...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON VERY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB /50KTS DECREASING TO 15 KTS...KDSM
TO KLSE/. THIS SIGNAL IS VERY CONSISTENT AMONG THE 24.12Z MODELS
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND THIS COULD POSE
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE COMPLEX MISSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WOULD THINK A MISS IS PROBABLY UNLIKELY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
THE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94...ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RAIN CHANCES WERE MADE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVER
1.75 INCHES IN THE AREA BY MORNING AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM.
THUS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN THE SYSTEM...BUT MANY
AREAS CAN USE THE RAINS. SOME BRIEF CITY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISS RIVER IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF
CONVERGENCE/FORCING AND ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SPC HAS ALSO
SHIFTED THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO NEAR OUR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA EDGE...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE. CAPPING SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM IN SRN WISCONSIN AS THE
CAP IS STILL FULLY IN PLACE WITH NO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
ALLOWED PER ALL GUIDANCE /600 SBCIN AND 700MB TEMPS NEAR 14C/.
YET A HANDFUL OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE A SIGNAL OF QPF
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
THERE AS IT WOULD BE SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD HAVE TO
BE TAPPED NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING THROUGH ERN IA. THE
24.12Z NAM DOES HAVE SOME 900-800MB FRONOTGENESIS WORKING WITHIN
THE CAPPED AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATES
STABLE SHOWERS. PREFER THE 24.12Z NAM WITH RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER
THIS SITUATION FRIDAY EVENING.

A DRYING TREND THEN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH
SATURDAY PROVIDES A VERY NICE DRY DAY. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLEWATER
AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR.

STRONG QG CONVERGENCE FORCING MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN/WI AS THE LONG WAVE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. FORCING COMES IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS
STRONGEST SUNDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE PULLED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TRACK. A CLOUDY BREEZY
SHOWERY DAY FOR MOST AREAS IT SEEMS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON WHEN THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
OVER THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TAKEN VISIBILITIES DOWN A BIT...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO ADD IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR YET SINCE THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
RST/LSE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...HALBACH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 242044
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242044
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ



000
FXUS63 KARX 242019
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
319 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WAS THE STORMS/WEATHER MOVING IN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

A TALE OF TWO AIR MASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. 24.12Z RAOBS SHOWING STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS /9C PER KM/ AND MID-LEVEL SATURATION
OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPER N-S MOIST PLUME IN
PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUES AT KBIS/KABR BOTH ARE BOTH
OVER 125 PERCENT THIS MORNING. KBIS AND KABR SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW
SATURATION AROUND 700MB WITH 500-1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE
700MB. EAST OF THE MOIST PLUME...STABILITY REIGNS WITH 5-6C/KM
500-700MB LAPSE RATES AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES /65 PERCENT/ AT
KMPX. THIS GRADIENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AT 16Z MATCHED WELL WITH THE MORNING STORMS AND
WEATHER IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS ALL ENHANCED BY A VERY VISIBLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWRD OF KBIS AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE MT/ND/SRN
CANADA BORDER.

AS THE LARGE SCALE SHIFTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WEAKENS...FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES /THROUGH SATURDAY/. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMING AND
RICHER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A PERIOD...BEFORE
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS OCCURS /SUNDAY/.
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...THE DAKOTAS AIR MASS WILL ADVECT EASTWARD
AND INTO THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGHER
MOISTURE BUT ALSO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MOVES IN. WHILE THIS HAS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM FROM 8C TO 12-14C
FRIDAY...PROVIDING A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION TO SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO A 600 J/KG SBCIN. THIS
CAP BUILDING HAS VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY.

PRIOR TO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDING IN FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE /700MB/ TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND LAPSE RATES WOULD SAY
SOME MID-LEVEL TOWERING CU COULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS
/100-300J/KG MUCAPE/. HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE CONVECTION ENTERING
WESTERN MN AND WHILE MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED
FROM 15-18Z...MUCH OF MN IS STILL QUITE STABLE. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHERN SIDE SEEMS TO BE TIED TO THE 700 MB TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FARGO. WOULD EXPECT ECHO TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD I-35...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK
FORCING...THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT
TIMING LOOKS TO FIT THE EVENING INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A 40-
50KT LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB FEED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME UP THE . BY 09Z...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON VERY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB /50KTS DECREASING TO 15 KTS...KDSM
TO KLSE/. THIS SIGNAL IS VERY CONSISTENT AMONG THE 24.12Z MODELS
AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT TO THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AND THIS COULD POSE
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE COMPLEX MISSING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WOULD THINK A MISS IS PROBABLY UNLIKELY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
THE AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94...ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RAIN CHANCES WERE MADE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVER
1.75 INCHES IN THE AREA BY MORNING AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM.
THUS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN THE SYSTEM...BUT MANY
AREAS CAN USE THE RAINS. SOME BRIEF CITY FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISS RIVER IN THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF
CONVERGENCE/FORCING AND ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. SPC HAS ALSO
SHIFTED THEIR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO NEAR OUR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA EDGE...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE. CAPPING SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM IN SRN WISCONSIN AS THE
CAP IS STILL FULLY IN PLACE WITH NO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
ALLOWED PER ALL GUIDANCE /600 SBCIN AND 700MB TEMPS NEAR 14C/.
YET A HANDFUL OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE A SIGNAL OF QPF
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN IN THE EVENING. HAVE KEPT A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
THERE AS IT WOULD BE SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD HAVE TO
BE TAPPED NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTING THROUGH ERN IA. THE
24.12Z NAM DOES HAVE SOME 900-800MB FRONOTGENESIS WORKING WITHIN
THE CAPPED AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATES
STABLE SHOWERS. PREFER THE 24.12Z NAM WITH RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO COVER
THIS SITUATION FRIDAY EVENING.

A DRYING TREND THEN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH
SATURDAY PROVIDES A VERY NICE DRY DAY. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLEWATER
AIRMASS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR.

STRONG QG CONVERGENCE FORCING MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MN/WI AS THE LONG WAVE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. FORCING COMES IN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND IS
STRONGEST SUNDAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE PULLED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE WAVE TRACK. A CLOUDY BREEZY
SHOWERY DAY FOR MOST AREAS IT SEEMS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON WHEN THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
OVER THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TAKEN VISIBILITIES DOWN A BIT...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO ADD IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR YET SINCE THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
RST/LSE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...HALBACH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 241953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN WARM
ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WISCONSIN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

12Z VERSIONS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING UNTIL AFTER THAT.
THE NAM/GFS BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER IN THE NIGHT
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ON
THE SAFE SIDE. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WINDING DOWN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE.

MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO PCPN TRENDS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AGREE
ON THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG S/W TROF AND CANADIAN
COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
IL...WITH A SUBTLE WEAKER BOUNDARY NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. A
25-35 KT WEST-SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF GRB CWA EARLY IN THE EVG...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
VEER W-NW OVERNIGHT. THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PSBL SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY MOVG THROUGH N WI. THINK THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR
SOUTH OF GRB CWA...CLOSER TO THE MAIN WARM FRONT AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES ADVECT
ACROSS THE CWA...AND SOME UPPER FORCING FROM THE JET STREAK MAY
SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A
SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...WITH W-NW FLOW AND
DRIER AIR AT 850 MB...AND AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD. A
LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROF WILL ARRIVE IN OUR NW COUNTIES LATE...SO THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NC WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENT UPPER
TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...WILL BOOST POPS
TO LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB (WEAK CONVERGENCE)...AND THE UPPER FORCING
AND FRONT ARRIVING A LITTLE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...LI`S OF -4 TO -6 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35
KTS...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED FORCING...MAY LEAD TO ISOLD SVR
TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

THE EXTENDED FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR JAMES
BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH S/W TROFS IN THE NW FLOW
MAY GENERATE SOME PCPN AT TIMES...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.
NONE OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE WASHOUTS...WITH MAINLY ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS 040-060 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD
BE BETTER BUT MODELS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN WARM
ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WISCONSIN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

12Z VERSIONS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING UNTIL AFTER THAT.
THE NAM/GFS BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER IN THE NIGHT
WHILE THE EC IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHEAST EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE TONIGHT...BUT
HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ON
THE SAFE SIDE. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WINDING DOWN IN PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PCPN TRENDS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE.

MODELS OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO PCPN TRENDS
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY AGREE
ON THE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG S/W TROF AND CANADIAN
COLD FRONT MOVG THROUGH THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
IL...WITH A SUBTLE WEAKER BOUNDARY NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. A
25-35 KT WEST-SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF GRB CWA EARLY IN THE EVG...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
VEER W-NW OVERNIGHT. THE LFQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PSBL SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY MOVG THROUGH N WI. THINK THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR
SOUTH OF GRB CWA...CLOSER TO THE MAIN WARM FRONT AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY DOES ADVECT
ACROSS THE CWA...AND SOME UPPER FORCING FROM THE JET STREAK MAY
SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A
SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...WITH W-NW FLOW AND
DRIER AIR AT 850 MB...AND AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK OVERHEAD. A
LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/STRONG SHORT-WAVE
TROF WILL ARRIVE IN OUR NW COUNTIES LATE...SO THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NC WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENT UPPER
TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...WILL BOOST POPS
TO LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB (WEAK CONVERGENCE)...AND THE UPPER FORCING
AND FRONT ARRIVING A LITTLE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAPE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG...LI`S OF -4 TO -6 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35
KTS...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED FORCING...MAY LEAD TO ISOLD SVR
TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

THE EXTENDED FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED NEAR JAMES
BAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH S/W TROFS IN THE NW FLOW
MAY GENERATE SOME PCPN AT TIMES...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.
NONE OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE WASHOUTS...WITH MAINLY ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS 040-060 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD
BE BETTER BUT MODELS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 241748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS 040-060 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD
BE BETTER BUT MODELS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 241748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS 040-060 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE...IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD
BE BETTER BUT MODELS HAD SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 241739
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON WHEN THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
OVER THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TAKEN VISIBILITIES DOWN A BIT...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO ADD IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR YET SINCE THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
RST/LSE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 241739
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS ON WHEN THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
OVER THIS PERIOD...SO HAVE TAKEN VISIBILITIES DOWN A BIT...BUT
DID NOT WANT TO ADD IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR YET SINCE THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
RST/LSE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KGRB 241108
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 13Z.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCAL AIRPORTS INCLUDING ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG.
AFTER THIS PERIOD OF FOG THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT TO PREVAIL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 241108
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PRODUCE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG WHICH WILL PERSIST TO AROUND 13Z.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCAL AIRPORTS INCLUDING ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG.
AFTER THIS PERIOD OF FOG THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT TO PREVAIL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KARX 241040
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST EVERYTHING WAS SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEY AT KLSE...BUT
T/TD SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TOO LARGE TO OVERCOME. LACK OF
LONGER NIGHT ALSO A FACTOR - WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD
STILL BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ON THE MAIN BODY OF THE RIVER...BUT
DOESN/T APPEAR IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRPORT. OF COURSE...WILL
MONITOR VISUAL CUES AND OBS...AND WILL UPDATED FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.

STORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
-SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN MASS OF PCPN. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS...ALONG WITH HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. MOSTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. THAT SAID...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WITH USE -SHRA/-TSRA TO COVER MORE PROBABLE
TIMES...MOSTLY IN THE 09-14Z FRI TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS CAN
PROVIDE SOME REFINEMENT AS NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 241040
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPANCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOST EVERYTHING WAS SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEY AT KLSE...BUT
T/TD SPREAD APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN TOO LARGE TO OVERCOME. LACK OF
LONGER NIGHT ALSO A FACTOR - WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING. COULD
STILL BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ON THE MAIN BODY OF THE RIVER...BUT
DOESN/T APPEAR IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AIRPORT. OF COURSE...WILL
MONITOR VISUAL CUES AND OBS...AND WILL UPDATED FORECAST IF
NECESSARY.

STORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
-SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN MASS OF PCPN. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS...ALONG WITH HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. MOSTLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. THAT SAID...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WITH USE -SHRA/-TSRA TO COVER MORE PROBABLE
TIMES...MOSTLY IN THE 09-14Z FRI TIME FRAME. LATER FORECASTS CAN
PROVIDE SOME REFINEMENT AS NEEDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 240839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240831
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240831
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240831
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KGRB 240831
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WEAK CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME SUBTLE POOLING OF MOISTURE
CREATING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RETURN WAA
FLOW FROM THE WEST AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL TURN MORE ZONAL AS A
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CANADA THROUGH
FRIDAY. STRONG WAA WITH INCREASING LLJ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION OR AT LEAST REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION REACHES PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. DRIER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE REGION WILL LIKELY PROTECT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
REGION.

MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN FOCUS
THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ANTICIPATE
HIGHER POPS WOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE WILL TREND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE GRADUALLY
ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALLER POPS OVER THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WAA...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN
AGREEMENT IF PCPN WILL REACH THESE AREAS.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE ONSET BEFORE STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 500MB TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN SHOULD TO OR
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THUS LOWERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
NOT COMPLETELY CONVINCED MONDAY WILL BE DRY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM








000
FXUS63 KARX 240737
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPENCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FIRST AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS VALLEY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT LSE THIS MORNING. SOME PASSING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO HOLD UP...STILL AT 12 DEGREES
AS OF 03Z. THIS IS QUITE HIGH AND MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION AT LSE GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
IMPROVED THE VISIBILITY IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP TO MVFR. ON THE
OTHER HAND...WITH THE CLOUDS NOW CLEARED OUT AND CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...THINK THERE STILL IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AN
LIFR STRATUS DECK TO FORM IN THE VALLEY. THUS THAT CONTINUES IN
THE TEMPO GROUP.

NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE EVENING WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVING WELL
ABOVE THE SURFACE...NEAR 10000 FT...LOOKS TO ERUPT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT BOTH SITES...BUT COULD SEE A VCTS NEED IN
LATER TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT RST CLOSER TO 06Z. LOOKING AHEAD TO
AFTER 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 240737
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BE BIGGEST IMPACT OF ANY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A QUIET MORNING ON TAP WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. STILL MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED VALLEYS IN WISCONSIN GIVEN DEW POINT DEPRESSION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

ENDED UP RAISING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD BE JUST AS
WARM IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS.

AS UPPER LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE MOVES INTO AND PAST CANADIAN
ROCKIES TODAY...LOW LEVEL RESPONSE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS INITIALLY. THIS AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL THEN MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND COULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LEADING TO STORM
COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED ON AREA COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING.

DETERMINISTIC OUTCOME OF 24/00Z GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING NOW ALTHOUGH AXIS OF POSSIBLE MCS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
PREFER BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF THAT DRIVES BRUNT OF COMPLEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN MAINLY BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/15Z. 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES GET
AS HIGH AS 1200 TO 2000 J/KG TONIGHT BUT VALUES DROP AND SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING LIKELY LEADING TO WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY
PASS THROUGH. BEST SHEAR REMAINS IN 0-3KM LAYER SO BESIDES SOME
HEAVY RAIN...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WITH ONGOING MCS...SOME QUESTION ON HOW LONG COMPLEX WILL LINGER
FRIDAY MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST DURING
THE DAY BUT STORMS COULD CERTAINLY LINGER UNTIL AFTERNOON IN PARTS
OF THE AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DISCREPENCIES AFTER THIS INITIAL MCS BASED
ON WHETHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN U.S. SOME HINTS OF
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.

SHOULD BE BETWEEN ANY FEATURES ON SATURDAY WITH DRYING WEST WIND BUT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

AS LARGE UPPER LOW ESTABLISHES OVER HUDSON BAY...COLDER...BELOW
NORMAL REGIME SETS UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAVES TO RESOLVE SO COULD SEE DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SPORADIC MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES HAS BEEN THROWN OUT FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FIRST AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS VALLEY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT LSE THIS MORNING. SOME PASSING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO HOLD UP...STILL AT 12 DEGREES
AS OF 03Z. THIS IS QUITE HIGH AND MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION AT LSE GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
IMPROVED THE VISIBILITY IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP TO MVFR. ON THE
OTHER HAND...WITH THE CLOUDS NOW CLEARED OUT AND CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...THINK THERE STILL IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AN
LIFR STRATUS DECK TO FORM IN THE VALLEY. THUS THAT CONTINUES IN
THE TEMPO GROUP.

NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE EVENING WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVING WELL
ABOVE THE SURFACE...NEAR 10000 FT...LOOKS TO ERUPT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT BOTH SITES...BUT COULD SEE A VCTS NEED IN
LATER TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT RST CLOSER TO 06Z. LOOKING AHEAD TO
AFTER 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 240358
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FIRST AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS VALLEY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT LSE THIS MORNING. SOME PASSING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO HOLD UP...STILL AT 12 DEGREES
AS OF 03Z. THIS IS QUITE HIGH AND MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION AT LSE GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
IMPROVED THE VISIBILITY IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP TO MVFR. ON THE
OTHER HAND...WITH THE CLOUDS NOW CLEARED OUT AND CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...THINK THERE STILL IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AN
LIFR STRATUS DECK TO FORM IN THE VALLEY. THUS THAT CONTINUES IN
THE TEMPO GROUP.

NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE EVENING WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVING WELL
ABOVE THE SURFACE...NEAR 10000 FT...LOOKS TO ERUPT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT BOTH SITES...BUT COULD SEE A VCTS NEED IN
LATER TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT RST CLOSER TO 06Z. LOOKING AHEAD TO
AFTER 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 240358
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FIRST AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS VALLEY FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL
AT LSE THIS MORNING. SOME PASSING CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD TO HOLD UP...STILL AT 12 DEGREES
AS OF 03Z. THIS IS QUITE HIGH AND MAY BE TOO HIGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION AT LSE GIVEN THE SHORTER NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
IMPROVED THE VISIBILITY IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP TO MVFR. ON THE
OTHER HAND...WITH THE CLOUDS NOW CLEARED OUT AND CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...THINK THERE STILL IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AN
LIFR STRATUS DECK TO FORM IN THE VALLEY. THUS THAT CONTINUES IN
THE TEMPO GROUP.

NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE EVENING WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVING WELL
ABOVE THE SURFACE...NEAR 10000 FT...LOOKS TO ERUPT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE
INCLUDED ONLY VCSH AT BOTH SITES...BUT COULD SEE A VCTS NEED IN
LATER TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT RST CLOSER TO 06Z. LOOKING AHEAD TO
AFTER 06Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO IOWA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 240349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG AFTER
09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER PLACES
TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE GREAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KMKX 240200
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BECOMING NEARLY CALM. IT/S A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP...SO TEMPS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO
MADISON THIS EVENING...HASTENING THE COOLING PROCESS...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL TRIM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A BIT...REMOVING ANOTHER MARINE
ZONE ON THE NORTH END. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ645>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240200
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BECOMING NEARLY CALM. IT/S A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP...SO TEMPS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO
MADISON THIS EVENING...HASTENING THE COOLING PROCESS...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL TRIM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A BIT...REMOVING ANOTHER MARINE
ZONE ON THE NORTH END. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ645>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KGRB 232306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG/CWA WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG
AFTER 09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER
PLACES TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE
GREAT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 232306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
606 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PERMIT DENSE GROUND
FOG TO FORM IN SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
PLACES LIKE ARV/LNL/RHI/RRL/AIG/CWA WILL PROBABLY HAVE IFR FOG
AFTER 09Z THROUGH AROUND 11Z OR 12Z BUT THERE MAY BE FOG AT OTHER
PLACES TOO. OTHER THAN THE FOG TONIGHT FLYING WEATHER WILL BE
GREAT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 232305
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN FOR VALLEY
FOG/STRATUS AT LSE...RESULTING FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THOSE ITEMS GOING AGAINST IT INCLUDE A
FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD AS OF 23Z OF 23F...THE
SHORTER LENGTH OF NIGHT COMPARED TO THE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TIME IN
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER...AND LACK OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS. THESE
NEGATIVE ITEMS MAY PROMOTE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS FOG.
THEREFORE...ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 18Z LSE TAF WAS TO INCLUDE A BKN
LIFR CEILING IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 232305
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN FOR VALLEY
FOG/STRATUS AT LSE...RESULTING FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THOSE ITEMS GOING AGAINST IT INCLUDE A
FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD AS OF 23Z OF 23F...THE
SHORTER LENGTH OF NIGHT COMPARED TO THE TYPICAL VALLEY FOG TIME IN
AUGUST/SEPTEMBER...AND LACK OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS. THESE
NEGATIVE ITEMS MAY PROMOTE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS FOG.
THEREFORE...ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 18Z LSE TAF WAS TO INCLUDE A BKN
LIFR CEILING IN THE 11-13Z TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KARX 232016
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE ONE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/KPDC/KOVS AND
KLNR. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU
TONIGHT/THU. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT VFR CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE
ABOVE 10K FT AND THE WINDS LIGHT THIS TAF PERIOD.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY BR/FG FORMATION IN THE 09-13Z TIME-
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW MUCH
THEY LOWER WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. IF DEW POINTS HOLD
UP IN THE UPPER 50S...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG FORMATION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. IF THEY LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S...LESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL AS THE NIGHT LENGTH/RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD IS STILL ON
THE RELATIVELY SHORT SIDE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT
KRST AROUND 10-12Z BUT LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE
FOR IT TO OCCUR. DID ADD TEMPO 2SM BR TO KLSE IN THE 11-13Z
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 232016
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG ALONG VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CRANBERRY COUNTRY. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING THEN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
AHEAD OF IT LATE IN THE NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-3 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THIS COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FAIRLY HEALTHY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.8. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM
SUGGEST THE STORMS WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY CAUSE
SOME CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THE SOILS WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME RAIN
SO ANY HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WOULD HINGE ON PRECIPITATION RATE. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
POTENT TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE ON THE MUGGY SIDE BUT
OVERALL IS SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE LATE JULY DAY. THE TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A TROUGH
THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE RATHER
PLEASANT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE ONE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/KPDC/KOVS AND
KLNR. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU
TONIGHT/THU. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT VFR CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE
ABOVE 10K FT AND THE WINDS LIGHT THIS TAF PERIOD.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY BR/FG FORMATION IN THE 09-13Z TIME-
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW MUCH
THEY LOWER WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. IF DEW POINTS HOLD
UP IN THE UPPER 50S...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG FORMATION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. IF THEY LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S...LESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL AS THE NIGHT LENGTH/RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD IS STILL ON
THE RELATIVELY SHORT SIDE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT
KRST AROUND 10-12Z BUT LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE
FOR IT TO OCCUR. DID ADD TEMPO 2SM BR TO KLSE IN THE 11-13Z
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 231953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY WHERE THERE MAY BE VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A WEAK GRADIENT AROUND AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONSIDERING
THE FACT THAT FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HAVE SOME IFR VSBYS IN FOG AT
TIMES IN TAFS FOR GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...PREVAILING IFR VSBYS IN
AUW/CWA TAFS...AND PREVAILING LIFR AT RHI DURING THE NIGHT.
GETTING FOG FORECASTS CORRECT IF TRICKY BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN
THIS FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR FROST.

PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMED ENOUGH. THERE WERE ALSO SOME MID
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...THAT WERE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS HAD SOME QPF IN
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THE EC CONFINED IT TO THE
MORNING WHILE THE GFS HAD IT LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THERE WERE
NO POPS IN GRIDS FROM ADJACENT OFFICES...AND THERE WAS NO STRONG
EVIDENCE THAT POPS NEEDED TO BE ADDED SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MID
CLOUDS WILL DEPART WITH THE SHORT WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE STATE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY
DENSE FOG THERE AGAIN TONIGHT...AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. 12Z GFS MOS HAS A LOW OF 33 AT LNL TONIGHT...BUT 12Z NAM
MOS HAD 39...AND DEW POINTS THERE RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S AT 19Z...SO HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FROST NEAR THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS INTO
CANADA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WILL BECOME UNDER ASSAULT BY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES ENGULFED BY
UPPER VORTEX EAST OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT
WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT OF WEAKER PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST
TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODEL
GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF
THESE INITIAL DISTURBANCES. WOULD EXPECT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AS IT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FIRST SHOT AT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPING NEAR NORTHERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE
POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG 850 THERMAL GRADIENT. THUS...TAPERED POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY MORNING RETAINING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPING IT DRY
ELSEWHERE. IN FACT LATEST 12Z WRF NMM/ARW AND NAM ALL SUGGEST
ENTIRE FORECAST ARE WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL THE SREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES A MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
AS WELL AS TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WORKING EASTWARD WITHIN
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CONTINUED WEAK WAA AND POOL OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHER VALUES MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE AREA.

LOWERED POPS ON SATURDAY...RELYING PRIMARILY ON CONSENSUS MODEL
POPS...AS MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE...WITH WEAK CAA AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WENT
DRY LOOK IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

BY SUNDAY...PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SECONDARY COLD
FRONT...SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST TO OUR EAST AND
INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD
SHOWER AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CAA
AND PLUMMETING 850 TEMPS. WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING
THE AREA MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS...BRISK NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY WHERE THERE MAY BE VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A WEAK GRADIENT AROUND AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONSIDERING
THE FACT THAT FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HAVE SOME IFR VSBYS IN FOG AT
TIMES IN TAFS FOR GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...PREVAILING IFR VSBYS IN
AUW/CWA TAFS...AND PREVAILING LIFR AT RHI DURING THE NIGHT.
GETTING FOG FORECASTS CORRECT IF TRICKY BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN
THIS FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 231748
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY WHERE THERE MAY BE VFR CIGS AT
TIMES...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER.

WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A WEAK GRADIENT AROUND AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CONSIDERING
THE FACT THAT FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. HAVE SOME IFR VSBYS IN FOG AT
TIMES IN TAFS FOR GRB/ATW/OSH/MTW...PREVAILING IFR VSBYS IN
AUW/CWA TAFS...AND PREVAILING LIFR AT RHI DURING THE NIGHT.
GETTING FOG FORECASTS CORRECT IF TRICKY BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN
THIS FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 231711
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE ONE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/KPDC/KOVS AND
KLNR. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU
TONIGHT/THU. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT VFR CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE
ABOVE 10K FT AND THE WINDS LIGHT THIS TAF PERIOD.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY BR/FG FORMATION IN THE 09-13Z TIME-
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW MUCH
THEY LOWER WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. IF DEW POINTS HOLD
UP IN THE UPPER 50S...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG FORMATION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. IF THEY LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S...LESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL AS THE NIGHT LENGTH/RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD IS STILL ON
THE RELATIVELY SHORT SIDE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT
KRST AROUND 10-12Z BUT LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE
FOR IT TO OCCUR. DID ADD TEMPO 2SM BR TO KLSE IN THE 11-13Z PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 231711
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE ONE MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG
POTENTIAL IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD AT SITES LIKE KONA/KLSE/KPDC/KOVS AND
KLNR. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU
TONIGHT/THU. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCT VFR CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER THU MORNING/THU AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE
ABOVE 10K FT AND THE WINDS LIGHT THIS TAF PERIOD.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE
LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE VALLEY BR/FG FORMATION IN THE 09-13Z TIME-
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE HOW MUCH
THEY LOWER WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. IF DEW POINTS HOLD
UP IN THE UPPER 50S...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG FORMATION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. IF THEY LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S...LESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL AS THE NIGHT LENGTH/RADIATIONAL COOLING PERIOD IS STILL ON
THE RELATIVELY SHORT SIDE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AT
KRST AROUND 10-12Z BUT LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE
FOR IT TO OCCUR. DID ADD TEMPO 2SM BR TO KLSE IN THE 11-13Z PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 231135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND
DAYBREAK. AVAILABLE WEB CAMS OVERALL CLEAR. LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO
CIGS THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS REPORTING AT VARIOUS LEVELS RANGING
FROM 1500 FEET TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER A PERIOD OF MIXED CLOUD
LAYERS THIS MORNING..EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 231135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND
DAYBREAK. AVAILABLE WEB CAMS OVERALL CLEAR. LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO
CIGS THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS REPORTING AT VARIOUS LEVELS RANGING
FROM 1500 FEET TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER A PERIOD OF MIXED CLOUD
LAYERS THIS MORNING..EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 231033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THAT SAID...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COULD SPARK SCT-BKN 4-6KFT LATE THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON.

AVIATION CONCERNS TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FOR
EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY...STAYING LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE...BUT MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...A FAVORABLE DIRECTION. THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER
EXTENDS UPWARDS OF 5 KFT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
BOTH CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MIXING-DRYING OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME TONIGHT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A FAVORED TIME OF THE YEAR EITHER...WITH
LESS HOURS OF DARK FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL SAID...MOST
VARIABLES SAY YES TO DENSE FOG AND WILL ADD IN BCFG FOR NOW. LATER
FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF T/TD SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR FG TO BE LIKELY. IF IT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY WOULDN/T LAST
PAST 13-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 231033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THAT SAID...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COULD SPARK SCT-BKN 4-6KFT LATE THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON.

AVIATION CONCERNS TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FOR
EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY...STAYING LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE...BUT MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...A FAVORABLE DIRECTION. THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER
EXTENDS UPWARDS OF 5 KFT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
BOTH CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MIXING-DRYING OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME TONIGHT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A FAVORED TIME OF THE YEAR EITHER...WITH
LESS HOURS OF DARK FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL SAID...MOST
VARIABLES SAY YES TO DENSE FOG AND WILL ADD IN BCFG FOR NOW. LATER
FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF T/TD SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR FG TO BE LIKELY. IF IT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY WOULDN/T LAST
PAST 13-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 231033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THAT SAID...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COULD SPARK SCT-BKN 4-6KFT LATE THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON.

AVIATION CONCERNS TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FOR
EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY...STAYING LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE...BUT MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...A FAVORABLE DIRECTION. THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER
EXTENDS UPWARDS OF 5 KFT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
BOTH CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MIXING-DRYING OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME TONIGHT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A FAVORED TIME OF THE YEAR EITHER...WITH
LESS HOURS OF DARK FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL SAID...MOST
VARIABLES SAY YES TO DENSE FOG AND WILL ADD IN BCFG FOR NOW. LATER
FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF T/TD SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR FG TO BE LIKELY. IF IT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY WOULDN/T LAST
PAST 13-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 231033
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...AS THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THAT SAID...A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COULD SPARK SCT-BKN 4-6KFT LATE THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON.

AVIATION CONCERNS TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE FOR
EARLY THU MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY...STAYING LIGHT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DIRECTION COULD BE VARIABLE...BUT MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...A FAVORABLE DIRECTION. THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER
EXTENDS UPWARDS OF 5 KFT...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
BOTH CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MIXING-DRYING OUT OF THE DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IF THE T/TD SPREAD CAN BE OVERCOME TONIGHT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT A FAVORED TIME OF THE YEAR EITHER...WITH
LESS HOURS OF DARK FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL SAID...MOST
VARIABLES SAY YES TO DENSE FOG AND WILL ADD IN BCFG FOR NOW. LATER
FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF T/TD SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR FG TO BE LIKELY. IF IT DEVELOPS...PROBABLY WOULDN/T LAST
PAST 13-14Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 230758
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH IT. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REALLY ONLY CONCERN
WOULD BE SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING...
BUT LACK OF RAIN FOR THE LAST WEEK AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD HELP PREVENT BOTH. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING ABOVE THE RIVER...THOUGH.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 230758
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

QUIET REGIME FOR SHORT TERM IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHORT LIVED FOG FORM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE JUST SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS AND GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS.

WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO VALLEY FOG IN
FAVORED AREAS...ALONG WITH COOL READINGS IN FAVORED LOW/BOG
LOCATIONS IN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOCUS IN LATER PERIODS CENTERS ON RAIN THREATS AS UPPER LOW MOVES UP
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT 5
TO 6 DAYS. MOST POTENT WEATHER COULD BE EARLY ON IN THIS PROCESS
WITH POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...AS SHORT WAVE RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS...LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INITIALLY FOCUS WEST
OF AREA...BUT SHIFT INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FOCUSES MORE ON SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH MOST
LIKELY TRACK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTION ON TIMING BUT FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY WITH 23/00Z NAM/ECMWF.
SOME 0-3KM SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN
NATURE AND FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREATS. SEE
TEXT HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS GOOD DISCUSSION ON SET UP.
HAVE RAISED RAIN THREATS AND QPF VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE DIFFUSED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. LOW LEVEL
FORCING DIMINISHES QUITE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY MORNING SO CONFIDENCE
DROPS AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GETS MUCH MORE DIVERSE. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER LOW AND TRIGGER A BIT MORE CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...UNSURE HOW EXPANSIVE THAT WOULD BE. AT SOME POINT EXPECT TO
BE IN BETWEEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING TO THE EAST AND UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS
WARM SECTOR LIKE DRYING TAKES PLACE WITH WEST WINDS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LATTER HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED BY
PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS EXPECTED. HAVE LOWERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COOLER AIR AND LIMITED CAPE. EXPECT MAINLY
SHOWERS WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
PREDICTED. LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST BY MONDAY TO KEEP RAIN
THREAT EAST AND ALLOWING SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH IT. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REALLY ONLY CONCERN
WOULD BE SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING...
BUT LACK OF RAIN FOR THE LAST WEEK AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD HELP PREVENT BOTH. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING ABOVE THE RIVER...THOUGH.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 230716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
216 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
216 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
216 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230716
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
216 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230605
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AT 19Z. LINE
OF CU SEEN WITH/JUST BEHIND FRONT, OTHERWISE RADAR MOSAIC OVER
STATE QUIET. WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF STATE
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH NOT DOING WELL TO MAINTAIN SELF.

MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS JUST HOLDING ON
TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. MESOANALYISIS SHOWING CIN WEAKENING GRB
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AM NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING DRY UNTIL FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT
START SHOWING DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND ADDING IT TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 230605
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AT 19Z. LINE
OF CU SEEN WITH/JUST BEHIND FRONT, OTHERWISE RADAR MOSAIC OVER
STATE QUIET. WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF STATE
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH NOT DOING WELL TO MAINTAIN SELF.

MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS JUST HOLDING ON
TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. MESOANALYISIS SHOWING CIN WEAKENING GRB
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AM NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING DRY UNTIL FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT
START SHOWING DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND ADDING IT TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 230402
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COOL FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT BEING A DROP IN DEW POINTS. AT 3
PM THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NECEDAH WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND DESOTO TO NEAR OELWEIN IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT
DEW POINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEW
POINTS WERE SULTRY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE DEW POINTS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
WERE PRODUCING  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105. RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS SULTRY AIRMASS WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500 J/KG. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS
THE FRONT WILL WAIT TO IGNITE CONVECTION UNTIL IT SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH THE STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
BUT GIVEN THE CAP ITS UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL EVEN OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. LINGERING MOISTURE...IN THE 900 TO
850 MB LAYER...OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAKING
IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER. THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EDGES EAST. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST
MODELS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SETS THE STAGE TO DIG A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH IT. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REALLY ONLY CONCERN
WOULD BE SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING...
BUT LACK OF RAIN FOR THE LAST WEEK AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD HELP PREVENT BOTH. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING ABOVE THE RIVER...THOUGH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 230402
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COOL FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT BEING A DROP IN DEW POINTS. AT 3
PM THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NECEDAH WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND DESOTO TO NEAR OELWEIN IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT
DEW POINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEW
POINTS WERE SULTRY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE DEW POINTS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
WERE PRODUCING  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105. RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS SULTRY AIRMASS WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500 J/KG. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS
THE FRONT WILL WAIT TO IGNITE CONVECTION UNTIL IT SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH THE STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
BUT GIVEN THE CAP ITS UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL EVEN OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. LINGERING MOISTURE...IN THE 900 TO
850 MB LAYER...OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAKING
IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER. THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EDGES EAST. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST
MODELS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MAY GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SETS THE STAGE TO DIG A DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...BRINGING PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH IT. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REALLY ONLY CONCERN
WOULD BE SOME POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT LSE IN THE MORNING...
BUT LACK OF RAIN FOR THE LAST WEEK AND A NORTHERLY BREEZE
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE GROUND SHOULD HELP PREVENT BOTH. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FORMING ABOVE THE RIVER...THOUGH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KENOSHA COUNTY WITHIN
A FEW HOURS...BY 03Z WED. STORMS JUST COULDN/T GET GOING ALONG THE
FRONT GIVEN A WEAK ELEVATED CAP THAT LINGERED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE IT DISAPPEARED...THE FORCING WAS JUST SO
WEAK THAT STORMS COULD NOT BE TRIGGERED NOR SUSTAINED. THERE WAS
ALSO A WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT PREFRONTAL
WESTERLY WINDS...A SURE SIGN OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING.

ANYWAY...LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS BY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MUCH
LOWER DEW POINTS HEADING IN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BE A BIT BRISK DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF
KMKE/KENW/KUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WILL BRING LARGE WAVES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOIST ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNNING FROM 06Z
WED...TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ENDED UP EXCEEDING 100 FROM MADISON AND WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY. MADISON REACHED A
HIGH OF 90 OR GREATER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SPC TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH
THE 3 PM UPDATE. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CAPPED
/NO CONVECTION/ UNTIL THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI OR EVEN
NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. SPC
MESOANALYSIS RAP IS SHOWING ERODING CIN ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
WI...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MKX FORECAST AREA. WE CANNOT RULE STORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...SURFACE FRONT...VERY HIGH
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND SIGNS OF SLIGHT UPSTREAM COOLING AT 700-
850MB.

THE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION ARE:  THE CAP. THE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE
CAP BREAKS AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS
LIMITED BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

THE QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATER WED NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD.  GFS ONLY GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...CANADIAN MAINTAINS WMFNT
ORIENTATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO/SRN IL.  LATEST ECMWF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WHICH CLIPS PORTIONS OF SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH CONVECTION GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN.
WL LEAN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH.  ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW STRONGER W-NW FLOW STEERING FLOW ACROSS SRN WI WHILE GFS
STRONGER SW. GFS REMAINS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  TOO MANY
DESCREPANCIES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

LIKE NCEP WPC BLENDED...PREFER ENSEMBLE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE CONVERGING ON
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION.

WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.  GFS CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH EASTERN
CANADA LONG WAVE TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SRN WI...HOWEVER WEAK RIPPLES IN
FAST NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE -SHRA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY KENOSHA AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IL.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF THEY DEVELOP. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WED MIDDAY ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

BEACHES...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WILL BE IN A HIGH
RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK OF SWIMMING
HAZARDS TONIGHT AND HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KENOSHA COUNTY WITHIN
A FEW HOURS...BY 03Z WED. STORMS JUST COULDN/T GET GOING ALONG THE
FRONT GIVEN A WEAK ELEVATED CAP THAT LINGERED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE IT DISAPPEARED...THE FORCING WAS JUST SO
WEAK THAT STORMS COULD NOT BE TRIGGERED NOR SUSTAINED. THERE WAS
ALSO A WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT PREFRONTAL
WESTERLY WINDS...A SURE SIGN OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING.

ANYWAY...LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS BY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MUCH
LOWER DEW POINTS HEADING IN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BE A BIT BRISK DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF
KMKE/KENW/KUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WILL BRING LARGE WAVES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOIST ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNNING FROM 06Z
WED...TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ENDED UP EXCEEDING 100 FROM MADISON AND WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY. MADISON REACHED A
HIGH OF 90 OR GREATER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SPC TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH
THE 3 PM UPDATE. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CAPPED
/NO CONVECTION/ UNTIL THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI OR EVEN
NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. SPC
MESOANALYSIS RAP IS SHOWING ERODING CIN ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
WI...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MKX FORECAST AREA. WE CANNOT RULE STORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...SURFACE FRONT...VERY HIGH
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND SIGNS OF SLIGHT UPSTREAM COOLING AT 700-
850MB.

THE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION ARE:  THE CAP. THE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE
CAP BREAKS AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS
LIMITED BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

THE QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATER WED NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD.  GFS ONLY GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...CANADIAN MAINTAINS WMFNT
ORIENTATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO/SRN IL.  LATEST ECMWF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WHICH CLIPS PORTIONS OF SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH CONVECTION GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN.
WL LEAN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH.  ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW STRONGER W-NW FLOW STEERING FLOW ACROSS SRN WI WHILE GFS
STRONGER SW. GFS REMAINS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  TOO MANY
DESCREPANCIES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

LIKE NCEP WPC BLENDED...PREFER ENSEMBLE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE CONVERGING ON
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION.

WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.  GFS CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH EASTERN
CANADA LONG WAVE TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SRN WI...HOWEVER WEAK RIPPLES IN
FAST NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE -SHRA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY KENOSHA AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IL.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF THEY DEVELOP. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WED MIDDAY ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

BEACHES...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WILL BE IN A HIGH
RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK OF SWIMMING
HAZARDS TONIGHT AND HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KENOSHA COUNTY WITHIN
A FEW HOURS...BY 03Z WED. STORMS JUST COULDN/T GET GOING ALONG THE
FRONT GIVEN A WEAK ELEVATED CAP THAT LINGERED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE IT DISAPPEARED...THE FORCING WAS JUST SO
WEAK THAT STORMS COULD NOT BE TRIGGERED NOR SUSTAINED. THERE WAS
ALSO A WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT PREFRONTAL
WESTERLY WINDS...A SURE SIGN OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING.

ANYWAY...LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS BY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MUCH
LOWER DEW POINTS HEADING IN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BE A BIT BRISK DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF
KMKE/KENW/KUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WILL BRING LARGE WAVES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOIST ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNNING FROM 06Z
WED...TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ENDED UP EXCEEDING 100 FROM MADISON AND WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY. MADISON REACHED A
HIGH OF 90 OR GREATER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SPC TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH
THE 3 PM UPDATE. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CAPPED
/NO CONVECTION/ UNTIL THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI OR EVEN
NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. SPC
MESOANALYSIS RAP IS SHOWING ERODING CIN ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
WI...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MKX FORECAST AREA. WE CANNOT RULE STORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...SURFACE FRONT...VERY HIGH
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND SIGNS OF SLIGHT UPSTREAM COOLING AT 700-
850MB.

THE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION ARE:  THE CAP. THE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE
CAP BREAKS AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS
LIMITED BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

THE QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATER WED NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD.  GFS ONLY GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...CANADIAN MAINTAINS WMFNT
ORIENTATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO/SRN IL.  LATEST ECMWF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WHICH CLIPS PORTIONS OF SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH CONVECTION GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN.
WL LEAN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH.  ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW STRONGER W-NW FLOW STEERING FLOW ACROSS SRN WI WHILE GFS
STRONGER SW. GFS REMAINS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  TOO MANY
DESCREPANCIES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

LIKE NCEP WPC BLENDED...PREFER ENSEMBLE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE CONVERGING ON
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION.

WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.  GFS CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH EASTERN
CANADA LONG WAVE TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SRN WI...HOWEVER WEAK RIPPLES IN
FAST NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE -SHRA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY KENOSHA AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IL.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF THEY DEVELOP. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WED MIDDAY ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

BEACHES...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WILL BE IN A HIGH
RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK OF SWIMMING
HAZARDS TONIGHT AND HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KENOSHA COUNTY WITHIN
A FEW HOURS...BY 03Z WED. STORMS JUST COULDN/T GET GOING ALONG THE
FRONT GIVEN A WEAK ELEVATED CAP THAT LINGERED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ONCE IT DISAPPEARED...THE FORCING WAS JUST SO
WEAK THAT STORMS COULD NOT BE TRIGGERED NOR SUSTAINED. THERE WAS
ALSO A WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT PREFRONTAL
WESTERLY WINDS...A SURE SIGN OF WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING.

ANYWAY...LOOK FOR COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS BY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MUCH
LOWER DEW POINTS HEADING IN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND BE A BIT BRISK DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF
KMKE/KENW/KUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WILL BRING LARGE WAVES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL HOIST ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNNING FROM 06Z
WED...TONIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ENDED UP EXCEEDING 100 FROM MADISON AND WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARED AWAY. MADISON REACHED A
HIGH OF 90 OR GREATER FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

SPC TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH
THE 3 PM UPDATE. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA CAPPED
/NO CONVECTION/ UNTIL THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI OR EVEN
NORTHEAST IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. SPC
MESOANALYSIS RAP IS SHOWING ERODING CIN ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
WI...SO I WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MKX FORECAST AREA. WE CANNOT RULE STORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...SURFACE FRONT...VERY HIGH
CAPE OVER 4000 J/KG AND SIGNS OF SLIGHT UPSTREAM COOLING AT 700-
850MB.

THE INHIBITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION ARE:  THE CAP. THE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ARE LIMITING THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  WE WILL HAVE TO SIT AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE
CAP BREAKS AS THE SURFACE FRONT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS
LIMITED BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 WILL LEAD TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. URBAN FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER AND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. STEADY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

THE QUIET AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GTLAKES.  EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATER WED NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW.

CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN HANDLING OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD.  GFS ONLY GUIDANCE IN
BRINGING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...CANADIAN MAINTAINS WMFNT
ORIENTATION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MO/SRN IL.  LATEST ECMWF A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WHICH CLIPS PORTIONS OF SW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
WITH CONVECTION GENERATED BY MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN.
WL LEAN TOWARD MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD AS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH.  ECMWF AND
NAM SHOW STRONGER W-NW FLOW STEERING FLOW ACROSS SRN WI WHILE GFS
STRONGER SW. GFS REMAINS OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  TOO MANY
DESCREPANCIES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

LIKE NCEP WPC BLENDED...PREFER ENSEMBLE OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE CONVERGING ON
A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION.

WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.  GFS CONTINUES TO PHASE THIS SYSTEM WITH EASTERN
CANADA LONG WAVE TROUGH A BIT QUICKER THAN CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER...LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HENCE WL
NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH REGION.

BY MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL HAVE
USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SRN WI...HOWEVER WEAK RIPPLES IN
FAST NORTHERLY FLOW MAY GENERATE -SHRA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT GETS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AROUND 6 PM...ESPECIALLY KENOSHA AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IL.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IF THEY DEVELOP. EXPECT
VERY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS CLOUDS WED MIDDAY ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

BEACHES...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WILL BE IN A HIGH
RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES WILL BE IN A MODERATE RISK OF SWIMMING
HAZARDS TONIGHT AND HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 222339
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COOL FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT BEING A DROP IN DEW POINTS. AT 3
PM THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NECEDAH WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND DESOTO TO NEAR OELWEIN IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT
DEW POINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEW
POINTS WERE SULTRY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE DEW POINTS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
WERE PRODUCING  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105. RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS SULTRY AIRMASS WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500 J/KG. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS
THE FRONT WILL WAIT TO IGNITE CONVECTION UNTIL IT SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH THE STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
BUT GIVEN THE CAP ITS UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL EVEN OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. LINGERING MOISTURE...IN THE 900 TO
850 MB LAYER...OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAKING
IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER. THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EDGES EAST. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  TO THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST
MODELS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MAY GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SETS THE STAGE TO
DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COOL FRONT. OUTSIDE OF
FEW/SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PLAN ON CLEAR
SKIES. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR KLSE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BUT
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER HIGH UNTIL 10Z. BY THAT POINT...EARLY
SUNRISE WILL BE WORKING AGAINST FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED 500 FT CEILING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT FOG WILL FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ZT




000
FXUS63 KARX 222339
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COOL FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT BEING A DROP IN DEW POINTS. AT 3
PM THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR NECEDAH WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND DESOTO TO NEAR OELWEIN IOWA. BEHIND THE FRONT
DEW POINTS WERE FALLING INTO THE 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEW
POINTS WERE SULTRY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE DEW POINTS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES  IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S
WERE PRODUCING  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105. RELIEF WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT.
STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS SULTRY AIRMASS WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500 J/KG. A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT LOOKS
THE FRONT WILL WAIT TO IGNITE CONVECTION UNTIL IT SLIPS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS/EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL WITH THE STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES COULD SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
BUT GIVEN THE CAP ITS UNLIKELY CONVECTION WILL EVEN OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. LINGERING MOISTURE...IN THE 900 TO
850 MB LAYER...OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S MAKING
IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER. THERE COULD BE COME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
EDGES EAST. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  TO THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE FORECAST
MODELS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. A VIGOROUS TROUGH THEN DIVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MAY GENERATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SETS THE STAGE TO
DIG A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COOL FRONT. OUTSIDE OF
FEW/SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...PLAN ON CLEAR
SKIES. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR KLSE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BUT
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER HIGH UNTIL 10Z. BY THAT POINT...EARLY
SUNRISE WILL BE WORKING AGAINST FOG/STRATUS FORMATION. SO FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A SCATTERED 500 FT CEILING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT FOG WILL FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ZT



000
FXUS63 KGRB 222332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AT 19Z. LINE
OF CU SEEN WITH/JUST BEHIND FRONT, OTHERWISE RADAR MOSAIC OVER
STATE QUIET. WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF STATE
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH NOT DOING WELL TO MAINTAIN SELF.

MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS JUST HOLDING ON
TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. MESOANALYISIS SHOWING CIN WEAKENING GRB
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AM NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING DRY UNTIL FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT
START SHOWING DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND ADDING IT TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THE TAF FOR OSHKOSH WITMANN REGIONAL AIRPORT IS NOW BEING PRODUCED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY. IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY AUGUST 7TH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 222332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
632 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AT 19Z. LINE
OF CU SEEN WITH/JUST BEHIND FRONT, OTHERWISE RADAR MOSAIC OVER
STATE QUIET. WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF STATE
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH NOT DOING WELL TO MAINTAIN SELF.

MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS JUST HOLDING ON
TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. MESOANALYISIS SHOWING CIN WEAKENING GRB
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AM NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING DRY UNTIL FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT
START SHOWING DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND ADDING IT TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THE TAF FOR OSHKOSH WITMANN REGIONAL AIRPORT IS NOW BEING PRODUCED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY. IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY AUGUST 7TH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







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