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000
FXUS63 KGRB 290912
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN MUCH
COOLER WITH SOME FROST UP NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SPLIT UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL UNDERGO SOME CONSOLIDATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS STG NRN STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN
CANADA. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...WITH SRN
STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

AFTER A RATHER MILD AND HUMID DAY TDA...TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS AS THE CANADIAN SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE
SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SIG
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TDA INTO TNGT...AND MAYBE INTO
EARLY SAT OVER E-C WI. THEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX WL FOLLOW
BEFORE WE LIKELY RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN AGAIN TOWARD THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD. PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BAND OF SHRA MOVG IN FM IA/SW WI WEAKENED LATE YDA EVENING...BUT
HAS REGENERATED IN THE PAST FEW HRS. BAND WL PROBABLY WEAKEN AGAIN
AS IT SHIFTS NE ACRS THE AREA. WL CARRY HIGH POPS INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TDA...THEN EDGE THEM BACK SOME AS THEY
SHIFT NNEWD ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TOUGH TO ADD MUCH
RESOLUTION TO THE POPS LATER TDA. MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME PCPN
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. IT WL PROBABLY BE MORE SCT
HOWEVER...SO EDGED POPS DOWN SOME FOR LATER TDA. SVR RISK WL
DEPEND ON HAVING ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PCPN/CLDS TO ALLOW THE ATM
TO DESTABILIZE. RIGHT NOW...IT/S HARD TO SEE US GETTING MUCH
SUN...SO SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR ABOUT THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN LATE TDA AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SWEPT CATEGORICAL POPS SEWD ACRS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN PCPN WL OCCUR IS
DIFFICULT...AS BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA WL LIKELY BE LIFTG NEWD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING BACK
OVER THE FRONTAL SFC. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED TO GO WITH PERIODS
OF PCPN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WL BE GREATEST WITH CONVECTION
INVOF THE FRONT...AND CARRIED IT EXPLICITLY IN THE GRIDS. WL ALSO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO...AND RE-ISSUE THE ESF.

WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WL LIKELY SLOW IT/S EXIT FROM THE
AREA...SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT MORNING FOR E-C WI. INCRG NNE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LINGERING PCPN WL PROBABLY
MAKE FOR A RATHER RAW-FEELING MORNING IN E-C WI. FARTHER
NW...SKIES WL BEGIN CLEARING FM N-S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS TDA AND
SAT...THOUGH LOWERED READINGS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE INCRG SLY FLOW
WL BRING LAKE-COOLED AIR INLAND. BASED MIN TEMPS TNGT ON HOURLY
GRIDS...WHICH WERE GENERATED FROM A BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN INITIALLY WL BE ON TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS COOL AIR DEPARTS...THE MAIN FCST
CONCERN BECOMES WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN CHCS BACK TO THE FCST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES WL SETTLE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND 8H TEMPS DOWN TO +2C WL LEAD
TO A CHILLY NGT ACROSS NE WI. E-CNTRL WI LOOKS TO BE PROTECTED
FROM ANY FROST DUE TO A PERSISTENT NE WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH THRU THE
NGT. HOWEVER...NRN WI WL SEE THE LIGHTEST WINDS BEING CLOSER TO
THE SFC HI AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TEMPERATURE FREE-FALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND AN EVENTUAL HEADLINE
NEEDED. CNTRL WI TO SE TEMPS FALL INTOTHE MID TO UPR 30S WITH
PATCHY FROST ANTICIPATED.

THE SFC HI TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD TO WRN QUEBEC
ON SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER SUNNY DAY...ALTHO TEMPS WL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. 8H TEMPS DO BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT (UP TO
+6C) SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT.
LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY THRU SUNDAY NGT AS THE HI PRES REMAINS
PARKED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND
PERHAPS ONLY SOME HI CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM PCPN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
WEST (WAA OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS). 8H TEMPS ARE NOT AS COOL AND
THE AIR MASS OVER WI IS NOT AS DRY EITHER COMPARED TO SAT NGT...
THUS MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE `MILDER` OVERALL. THAT BEING SAID...NRN
WI MAY STILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S WITH AT LEAST PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPING.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SFC HI IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM
WI TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS AND REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL
OF NE WI WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
BE FED INTO WI ON AN EASTERLY WIND. 8H TEMPS WL ALSO CONT TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE WHICH WOULD ADD SEVERAL DEGS TO MAX TEMPS. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE. THE SFC HI FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRASP OVER NE WI
ON TUE AS THE REGION GRADUALLY FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCREASING WAA SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. TUE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THERE WL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL AS
WARMER TEMPS AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ABOVE
50 DEGS. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS WL SEND MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID
60S LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE FCST BECOMES MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(AND BEYOND) AS THE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION OF A CDFNT AND THE STRENGTH OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS. THE GEM IS FLATTER WITH THIS UPR RDG...THUS
ALLOWING WAA-INDUCED/THEN CDFNT-INDUCED PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI AS
EARLY AS TUE NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST
WITH THE UPR RDG INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THUS HOLDING MOST OF ANY
PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THRU THU. DUE TO AN UPR TROF MOVING
INTO THE WRN CONUS AT MID-WEEK...ONE WOULD BELIEVE THAT DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING TO OCCUR...THUS HAVE LEANED THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS TUE NGT INTO WED IF THIS UPR RDG DOES NOT
BUILD QUICK ENUF (GFS)...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY THAT WOULD MOVE THRU NRN WI BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MAY KEEP A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
PRECAUTION. TEMPS FOR BOTH WED AND THU WL GO ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CIGS TDA SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE VFR CATEGORY DESPITE THE
SHRA...THOUGH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN C/N-C WI THIS
MORNING. CIGS WL FALL INTO THE LOWER-END MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY TNGT
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE
FM N-S ON SAT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
HAVE ALLOWED THE WISCONSIN RIVER AND THE MENOMINEE RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE BANKFULL IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND AN
INCH ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY
SERVE TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS EVEN MORE AND PERHAPS LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG BOTH RIVERS. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG BOTH THE WISCONSIN
AND MENOMINEE RIVERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD MINOR
FLOODING OCCUR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......KALLAS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290912
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN MUCH
COOLER WITH SOME FROST UP NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SPLIT UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL UNDERGO SOME CONSOLIDATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS STG NRN STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN
CANADA. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...WITH SRN
STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

AFTER A RATHER MILD AND HUMID DAY TDA...TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS AS THE CANADIAN SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE
SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SIG
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TDA INTO TNGT...AND MAYBE INTO
EARLY SAT OVER E-C WI. THEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX WL FOLLOW
BEFORE WE LIKELY RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN AGAIN TOWARD THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD. PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BAND OF SHRA MOVG IN FM IA/SW WI WEAKENED LATE YDA EVENING...BUT
HAS REGENERATED IN THE PAST FEW HRS. BAND WL PROBABLY WEAKEN AGAIN
AS IT SHIFTS NE ACRS THE AREA. WL CARRY HIGH POPS INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TDA...THEN EDGE THEM BACK SOME AS THEY
SHIFT NNEWD ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TOUGH TO ADD MUCH
RESOLUTION TO THE POPS LATER TDA. MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME PCPN
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. IT WL PROBABLY BE MORE SCT
HOWEVER...SO EDGED POPS DOWN SOME FOR LATER TDA. SVR RISK WL
DEPEND ON HAVING ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PCPN/CLDS TO ALLOW THE ATM
TO DESTABILIZE. RIGHT NOW...IT/S HARD TO SEE US GETTING MUCH
SUN...SO SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR ABOUT THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN LATE TDA AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SWEPT CATEGORICAL POPS SEWD ACRS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN PCPN WL OCCUR IS
DIFFICULT...AS BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA WL LIKELY BE LIFTG NEWD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING BACK
OVER THE FRONTAL SFC. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED TO GO WITH PERIODS
OF PCPN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WL BE GREATEST WITH CONVECTION
INVOF THE FRONT...AND CARRIED IT EXPLICITLY IN THE GRIDS. WL ALSO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO...AND RE-ISSUE THE ESF.

WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WL LIKELY SLOW IT/S EXIT FROM THE
AREA...SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT MORNING FOR E-C WI. INCRG NNE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LINGERING PCPN WL PROBABLY
MAKE FOR A RATHER RAW-FEELING MORNING IN E-C WI. FARTHER
NW...SKIES WL BEGIN CLEARING FM N-S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS TDA AND
SAT...THOUGH LOWERED READINGS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE INCRG SLY FLOW
WL BRING LAKE-COOLED AIR INLAND. BASED MIN TEMPS TNGT ON HOURLY
GRIDS...WHICH WERE GENERATED FROM A BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN INITIALLY WL BE ON TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS COOL AIR DEPARTS...THE MAIN FCST
CONCERN BECOMES WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN CHCS BACK TO THE FCST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES WL SETTLE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND 8H TEMPS DOWN TO +2C WL LEAD
TO A CHILLY NGT ACROSS NE WI. E-CNTRL WI LOOKS TO BE PROTECTED
FROM ANY FROST DUE TO A PERSISTENT NE WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH THRU THE
NGT. HOWEVER...NRN WI WL SEE THE LIGHTEST WINDS BEING CLOSER TO
THE SFC HI AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TEMPERATURE FREE-FALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND AN EVENTUAL HEADLINE
NEEDED. CNTRL WI TO SE TEMPS FALL INTOTHE MID TO UPR 30S WITH
PATCHY FROST ANTICIPATED.

THE SFC HI TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD TO WRN QUEBEC
ON SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER SUNNY DAY...ALTHO TEMPS WL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. 8H TEMPS DO BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT (UP TO
+6C) SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT.
LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY THRU SUNDAY NGT AS THE HI PRES REMAINS
PARKED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND
PERHAPS ONLY SOME HI CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM PCPN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
WEST (WAA OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS). 8H TEMPS ARE NOT AS COOL AND
THE AIR MASS OVER WI IS NOT AS DRY EITHER COMPARED TO SAT NGT...
THUS MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE `MILDER` OVERALL. THAT BEING SAID...NRN
WI MAY STILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S WITH AT LEAST PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPING.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SFC HI IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM
WI TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS AND REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL
OF NE WI WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
BE FED INTO WI ON AN EASTERLY WIND. 8H TEMPS WL ALSO CONT TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE WHICH WOULD ADD SEVERAL DEGS TO MAX TEMPS. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE. THE SFC HI FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRASP OVER NE WI
ON TUE AS THE REGION GRADUALLY FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCREASING WAA SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. TUE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THERE WL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL AS
WARMER TEMPS AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ABOVE
50 DEGS. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS WL SEND MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID
60S LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE FCST BECOMES MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(AND BEYOND) AS THE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION OF A CDFNT AND THE STRENGTH OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS. THE GEM IS FLATTER WITH THIS UPR RDG...THUS
ALLOWING WAA-INDUCED/THEN CDFNT-INDUCED PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI AS
EARLY AS TUE NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST
WITH THE UPR RDG INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THUS HOLDING MOST OF ANY
PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THRU THU. DUE TO AN UPR TROF MOVING
INTO THE WRN CONUS AT MID-WEEK...ONE WOULD BELIEVE THAT DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING TO OCCUR...THUS HAVE LEANED THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS TUE NGT INTO WED IF THIS UPR RDG DOES NOT
BUILD QUICK ENUF (GFS)...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY THAT WOULD MOVE THRU NRN WI BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MAY KEEP A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
PRECAUTION. TEMPS FOR BOTH WED AND THU WL GO ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CIGS TDA SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE VFR CATEGORY DESPITE THE
SHRA...THOUGH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN C/N-C WI THIS
MORNING. CIGS WL FALL INTO THE LOWER-END MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY TNGT
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE
FM N-S ON SAT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
HAVE ALLOWED THE WISCONSIN RIVER AND THE MENOMINEE RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE BANKFULL IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND AN
INCH ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY
SERVE TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS EVEN MORE AND PERHAPS LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG BOTH RIVERS. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG BOTH THE WISCONSIN
AND MENOMINEE RIVERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD MINOR
FLOODING OCCUR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......KALLAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290912
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN MUCH
COOLER WITH SOME FROST UP NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SPLIT UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM WL UNDERGO SOME CONSOLIDATION THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS STG NRN STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN
CANADA. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...WITH SRN
STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

AFTER A RATHER MILD AND HUMID DAY TDA...TEMPS WL DROP TO BLO
NORMAL LEVELS AS THE CANADIAN SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE
SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SIG
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TDA INTO TNGT...AND MAYBE INTO
EARLY SAT OVER E-C WI. THEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX WL FOLLOW
BEFORE WE LIKELY RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN AGAIN TOWARD THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD. PCPN AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BAND OF SHRA MOVG IN FM IA/SW WI WEAKENED LATE YDA EVENING...BUT
HAS REGENERATED IN THE PAST FEW HRS. BAND WL PROBABLY WEAKEN AGAIN
AS IT SHIFTS NE ACRS THE AREA. WL CARRY HIGH POPS INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TDA...THEN EDGE THEM BACK SOME AS THEY
SHIFT NNEWD ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING. TOUGH TO ADD MUCH
RESOLUTION TO THE POPS LATER TDA. MODELS ALL INDICATE SOME PCPN
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. IT WL PROBABLY BE MORE SCT
HOWEVER...SO EDGED POPS DOWN SOME FOR LATER TDA. SVR RISK WL
DEPEND ON HAVING ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE PCPN/CLDS TO ALLOW THE ATM
TO DESTABILIZE. RIGHT NOW...IT/S HARD TO SEE US GETTING MUCH
SUN...SO SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR ABOUT THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA
LOOKS ON TARGET.

SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN LATE TDA AS THE MAIN
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SWEPT CATEGORICAL POPS SEWD ACRS
THE AREA WITH THE FRONT. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN PCPN WL OCCUR IS
DIFFICULT...AS BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA WL LIKELY BE LIFTG NEWD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING BACK
OVER THE FRONTAL SFC. FOR THIS REASON...OPTED TO GO WITH PERIODS
OF PCPN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WL BE GREATEST WITH CONVECTION
INVOF THE FRONT...AND CARRIED IT EXPLICITLY IN THE GRIDS. WL ALSO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO...AND RE-ISSUE THE ESF.

WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WL LIKELY SLOW IT/S EXIT FROM THE
AREA...SO BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT MORNING FOR E-C WI. INCRG NNE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LINGERING PCPN WL PROBABLY
MAKE FOR A RATHER RAW-FEELING MORNING IN E-C WI. FARTHER
NW...SKIES WL BEGIN CLEARING FM N-S AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS TDA AND
SAT...THOUGH LOWERED READINGS NEAR THE LAKE WHERE INCRG SLY FLOW
WL BRING LAKE-COOLED AIR INLAND. BASED MIN TEMPS TNGT ON HOURLY
GRIDS...WHICH WERE GENERATED FROM A BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN INITIALLY WL BE ON TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS COOL AIR DEPARTS...THE MAIN FCST
CONCERN BECOMES WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN CHCS BACK TO THE FCST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS CONT TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HI PRES WL SETTLE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT NGT. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND 8H TEMPS DOWN TO +2C WL LEAD
TO A CHILLY NGT ACROSS NE WI. E-CNTRL WI LOOKS TO BE PROTECTED
FROM ANY FROST DUE TO A PERSISTENT NE WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH THRU THE
NGT. HOWEVER...NRN WI WL SEE THE LIGHTEST WINDS BEING CLOSER TO
THE SFC HI AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO A TEMPERATURE FREE-FALL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
UPR 20S TO LWR 30S WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND AN EVENTUAL HEADLINE
NEEDED. CNTRL WI TO SE TEMPS FALL INTOTHE MID TO UPR 30S WITH
PATCHY FROST ANTICIPATED.

THE SFC HI TO EXTEND FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD TO WRN QUEBEC
ON SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER SUNNY DAY...ALTHO TEMPS WL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. 8H TEMPS DO BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT (UP TO
+6C) SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS SUNDAY TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT.
LOOK FOR READINGS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
GENERALLY IN THE 60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE.

LITTLE CHANGE SYNOPTICALLY THRU SUNDAY NGT AS THE HI PRES REMAINS
PARKED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND
PERHAPS ONLY SOME HI CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM PCPN LOCATED WELL TO OUR
WEST (WAA OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS). 8H TEMPS ARE NOT AS COOL AND
THE AIR MASS OVER WI IS NOT AS DRY EITHER COMPARED TO SAT NGT...
THUS MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE `MILDER` OVERALL. THAT BEING SAID...NRN
WI MAY STILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S WITH AT LEAST PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPING.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SFC HI IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM
WI TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS AND REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL
OF NE WI WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO
BE FED INTO WI ON AN EASTERLY WIND. 8H TEMPS WL ALSO CONT TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE WHICH WOULD ADD SEVERAL DEGS TO MAX TEMPS. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE. THE SFC HI FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRASP OVER NE WI
ON TUE AS THE REGION GRADUALLY FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
INCREASING WAA SITUATED OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY. TUE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THERE WL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AS WELL AS
WARMER TEMPS AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ABOVE
50 DEGS. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS WL SEND MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID
60S LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE FCST BECOMES MORE SKETCHY HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(AND BEYOND) AS THE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION OF A CDFNT AND THE STRENGTH OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE
E-CNTRL CONUS. THE GEM IS FLATTER WITH THIS UPR RDG...THUS
ALLOWING WAA-INDUCED/THEN CDFNT-INDUCED PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI AS
EARLY AS TUE NGT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST
WITH THE UPR RDG INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THUS HOLDING MOST OF ANY
PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THRU THU. DUE TO AN UPR TROF MOVING
INTO THE WRN CONUS AT MID-WEEK...ONE WOULD BELIEVE THAT DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING TO OCCUR...THUS HAVE LEANED THE FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY CONCERN HERE IS TUE NGT INTO WED IF THIS UPR RDG DOES NOT
BUILD QUICK ENUF (GFS)...LEADING TO A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY THAT WOULD MOVE THRU NRN WI BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MAY KEEP A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AS A
PRECAUTION. TEMPS FOR BOTH WED AND THU WL GO ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CIGS TDA SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE VFR CATEGORY DESPITE THE
SHRA...THOUGH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN C/N-C WI THIS
MORNING. CIGS WL FALL INTO THE LOWER-END MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY TNGT
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE
FM N-S ON SAT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
HAVE ALLOWED THE WISCONSIN RIVER AND THE MENOMINEE RIVERS TO RISE
ABOVE BANKFULL IN MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND AN
INCH ON AVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD ONLY
SERVE TO RAISE RIVER LEVELS EVEN MORE AND PERHAPS LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ALONG BOTH RIVERS. PEOPLE LIVING ALONG BOTH THE WISCONSIN
AND MENOMINEE RIVERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD MINOR
FLOODING OCCUR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
HYDROLOGY......KALLAS


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 290910
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS TRIGGERED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING TSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG. FOR TNT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...MAINLY ISOLATED THOUGH...WITH PWS UP TO 1.6 INCHES AND
CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF 5-10 KTS WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE 30 KTS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY INTO THE
EVENING BUT STRATUS OF 600 FEET TO 1.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
TNT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD WITH HIGH WAVES QUICKLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290910
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS TRIGGERED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING TSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG. FOR TNT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...MAINLY ISOLATED THOUGH...WITH PWS UP TO 1.6 INCHES AND
CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF 5-10 KTS WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE 30 KTS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY INTO THE
EVENING BUT STRATUS OF 600 FEET TO 1.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
TNT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD WITH HIGH WAVES QUICKLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290910
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS TRIGGERED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING TSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG. FOR TNT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...MAINLY ISOLATED THOUGH...WITH PWS UP TO 1.6 INCHES AND
CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF 5-10 KTS WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE 30 KTS.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY INTO THE
EVENING BUT STRATUS OF 600 FEET TO 1.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
TNT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD WITH HIGH WAVES QUICKLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY...

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY...

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 290804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING - MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL...MESO MODELS ALL POINT TO AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS
AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO.

TO THE WEST...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF A SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT OBVIOUSLY HAS ENOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POP SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NAM BUILDS ABOUT 1 K
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST AT
NEARLY TWICE THAT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED AS MORNING CONVECTION EXITS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER. IF
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN DO RESULT IN GFS-ESQUE LIKE VALUES...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SKINNY PROFILE TO CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP/STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MEAGER...MOSTLY POST THE FRONT...AND IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER.
OVERALL...NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS...BUT UNLESS STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND OVERLAPS WITH
THE MARGINAL SHEAR MORE...THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH BUILD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFYING IT AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WOULD SERVE TO SHUFFLE MOST BITS OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH WEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR THIS RIPPLE IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WHICH IS MINIMAL VIA RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A SFC HIGH IS SLATED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ALL THIS MIND...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH WED...HOLDING ONTO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CLOSEST TO ANY FORCING. CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVES SMALL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU/THU NIGHT. DON/T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT
PER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS FORECAST
FOR THE MOMENT. CAVEOT TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS...IF THE RIDGE
ISN/T QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...COOL AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 14 C THIS
MORNING...TO 4 C BY 00Z SUN. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP STANDARD ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY 0 TO -1 SAT/SUN...SO ITS NOT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP US A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATE MAY
NORMALS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND FOR THE START OF JUNE...WITH SOME 80S LOOKING LIKELY.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN 29.11Z
AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&


.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 290804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING - MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL...MESO MODELS ALL POINT TO AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS
AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO.

TO THE WEST...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF A SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT OBVIOUSLY HAS ENOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POP SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NAM BUILDS ABOUT 1 K
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST AT
NEARLY TWICE THAT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED AS MORNING CONVECTION EXITS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER. IF
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN DO RESULT IN GFS-ESQUE LIKE VALUES...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SKINNY PROFILE TO CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP/STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MEAGER...MOSTLY POST THE FRONT...AND IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER.
OVERALL...NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS...BUT UNLESS STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND OVERLAPS WITH
THE MARGINAL SHEAR MORE...THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH BUILD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFYING IT AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WOULD SERVE TO SHUFFLE MOST BITS OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH WEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR THIS RIPPLE IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WHICH IS MINIMAL VIA RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A SFC HIGH IS SLATED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ALL THIS MIND...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH WED...HOLDING ONTO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CLOSEST TO ANY FORCING. CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVES SMALL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU/THU NIGHT. DON/T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT
PER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS FORECAST
FOR THE MOMENT. CAVEOT TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS...IF THE RIDGE
ISN/T QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...COOL AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 14 C THIS
MORNING...TO 4 C BY 00Z SUN. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP STANDARD ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY 0 TO -1 SAT/SUN...SO ITS NOT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP US A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATE MAY
NORMALS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND FOR THE START OF JUNE...WITH SOME 80S LOOKING LIKELY.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN 29.11Z
AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&


.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 290804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS
IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING - MOSTLY
DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE LITTLE/IF ANY INSTABILITY INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. STILL...MESO MODELS ALL POINT TO AN EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS
AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO.

TO THE WEST...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
IN TERMS OF A SAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT OBVIOUSLY HAS ENOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO POP SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NAM BUILDS ABOUT 1 K
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST AT
NEARLY TWICE THAT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REALIZED AS MORNING CONVECTION EXITS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER. IF
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUN DO RESULT IN GFS-ESQUE LIKE VALUES...BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SKINNY PROFILE TO CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
DEEP/STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MEAGER...MOSTLY POST THE FRONT...AND IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER.
OVERALL...NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS...BUT UNLESS STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND OVERLAPS WITH
THE MARGINAL SHEAR MORE...THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH BUILD BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AMPLIFYING IT AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WOULD SERVE TO SHUFFLE MOST BITS OF ENERGY EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH WEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID -
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SPIN ACROSS
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. THE PROBLEM FOR THIS RIPPLE IS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WHICH IS MINIMAL VIA RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A SFC HIGH IS SLATED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ALL THIS MIND...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH WED...HOLDING ONTO SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...CLOSEST TO ANY FORCING. CONSENSUS SOLUTION GIVES SMALL POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THU/THU NIGHT. DON/T SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT
PER THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THIS FORECAST
FOR THE MOMENT. CAVEOT TO THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS...IF THE RIDGE
ISN/T QUITE AS STRONG AS PROGGED...RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP
INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...COOL AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 14 C THIS
MORNING...TO 4 C BY 00Z SUN. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP STANDARD ANOMALIES
ARE ONLY 0 TO -1 SAT/SUN...SO ITS NOT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
AIRMASS...BUT WILL KEEP US A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATE MAY
NORMALS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK EXPECT TEMPS
TO REBOUND FOR THE START OF JUNE...WITH SOME 80S LOOKING LIKELY.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN 29.11Z
AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&


.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 290508
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR AT KLSE AND WILL BE MVFR AT KRST BETWEEN
29.11Z AND 29.18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR AT
KRST...AND THEN LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 29.2230Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KRST BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.23Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS TO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS...AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS TO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS...AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS TO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY
BE A LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS...AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AGAIN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KARX 290254
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RESULT...TRENDED
THESE BACK BY ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z FRIDAY...SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE FOR THIS. HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THREAT WOULD BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE FRONT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THE 29.00Z MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
BEFORE REMOVING THEM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290254
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THAT THE 850 MB MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
ON A DIMINISHING TREND AND THE RAP HAS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS TREND CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY...LOWERED THE SHOWER CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...MANY OF MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE AREA
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THEY HAVE TRENDED DRIER. DUE TO THIS LOWER...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RESULT...TRENDED
THESE BACK BY ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z FRIDAY...SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE FOR THIS. HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THREAT WOULD BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE FRONT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THE 29.00Z MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
BEFORE REMOVING THEM.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290226
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
926 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST HRRR SHOWS SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE IN MADISON AND 250 JOULES/KG AT MILWAUKEE.

NEW 00Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE TIMING AND REDUCED THE INTENSITY OF THE
SIMULATED RADAR TROUGH 03Z BUT STRENGTHENS IT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TIMING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM.
THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING THAT
COULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED MIDDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER.
MVFR/IFR WOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SW WI OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THEN IT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY MIDDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE AND ADVECTION ACTIVITY.

THE LLJ WILL BEGIN POINT INTO INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
WI... PERHAPS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPE WILL BE
DECENT...UP TO 1000 J/KG... DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME.  BY 00Z/SAT...PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE CLIMBED
TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE REACHING 90TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
FROM WSW AROUND 25 KTS HOWEVER WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WITH
SOUTHWEST 25KT WINDS...RESULTANT MESO-BETA ELEMENTS DEMONSTRATE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF 5 TO 10 KTS.  FORTUNATELY...3 HOUR FFG MOST AREAS AROUND
2-2.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW...WL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO.  CWASP VALUES
OVER 70 PERCENT FRIDAY EVENING AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000-1500 J/KG.  MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SEVERE SO
MARGINAL RISK LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

LEANING MORE ON 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS NAM SHOWING STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST WI/TRI-STATE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL
OPEN TROF EXITING SOUTHEAST WI LATER SATURDAY.  HENCE WL CONTINUE
SHOWER THREAT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS LOW
LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

925H TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 3-4C LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.  SIGNFICANTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 925H TEMPS
COLLAPSING 10-15C FROM FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO TUESDAY AS LONG WAVE TROF SPREADS INTO
WESTERN CONUS.  HENCE QUIETER...DRIER CONDITIONS ASSOCD WITH SFC
RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN FOCUSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS
AFFECTING NW WI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP DURING THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE COOL LAKE MI WATERS CONTINUING TO
COOL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.  HENCE INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AROUND FRI/SAT AS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GTLAKES.  GFS 500H 5-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GTLAKES THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING... A LULL MIDDAY... AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND BRING
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.CELLS
HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK. BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES
ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE
INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THFOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND
LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE
THAT BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.E MOST
PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY. IF ANY BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND
750 J/KG OF ML CAPE. THINK THE PROBABILITY OF THESE CAPES
OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER. BUT WILL NOT KNOW
THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW. RAIN COOLED
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S OVER
EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCT TSTMS OVER FAR NE WI SHOULD DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING
ENDS THIS EVG...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER C/NC WI. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN AFTER
THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH...BUT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KARX 282345
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RESULT...TRENDED
THESE BACK BY ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z FRIDAY...SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE FOR THIS. HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THREAT WOULD BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE FRONT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THE 29.00Z MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
BEFORE REMOVING THEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282345
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE MID CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS RESULT...TRENDED
THESE BACK BY ABOUT 2 TO 4 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND
12Z FRIDAY...SO LEFT THE TIMING ALONE FOR THIS. HOWEVER WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
AFTER 21Z FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BE ALONG THREAT WOULD BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE FRONT.

AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHETHER THE 29.00Z MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND
BEFORE REMOVING THEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282056
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SW WI OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THEN IT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY MIDDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE AND ADVECTION ACTIVITY.

THE LLJ WILL BEGIN POINT INTO INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
WI... PERHAPS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPE WILL BE
DECENT...UP TO 1000 J/KG... DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME.  BY 00Z/SAT...PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE CLIMBED
TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE REACHING 90TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
FROM WSW AROUND 25 KTS HOWEVER WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WITH
SOUTHWEST 25KT WINDS...RESULTANT MESO-BETA ELEMENTS DEMONSTRATE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF 5 TO 10 KTS.  FORTUNATELY...3 HOUR FFG MOST AREAS AROUND
2-2.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW...WL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO.  CWASP VALUES
OVER 70 PERCENT FRIDAY EVENING AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000-1500 J/KG.  MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SEVERE SO
MARGINAL RISK LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

LEANING MORE ON 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS NAM SHOWING STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST WI/TRI-STATE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL
OPEN TROF EXITING SOUTHEAST WI LATER SATURDAY.  HENCE WL CONTINUE
SHOWER THREAT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS LOW
LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

925H TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 3-4C LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.  SIGNFICANTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 925H TEMPS
COLLAPSING 10-15C FROM FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO TUESDAY AS LONG WAVE TROF SPREADS INTO
WESTERN CONUS.  HENCE QUIETER...DRIER CONDITIONS ASSOCD WITH SFC
RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN FOCUSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS
AFFECTING NW WI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP DURING THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE COOL LAKE MI WATERS CONTINUING TO
COOL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.  HENCE INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AROUND FRI/SAT AS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GTLAKES.  GFS 500H 5-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GTLAKES THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING... A LULL MIDDAY... AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND BRING
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 282056
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SW WI OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THEN IT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY MIDDAY
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE AND ADVECTION ACTIVITY.

THE LLJ WILL BEGIN POINT INTO INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST
WI... PERHAPS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPE WILL BE
DECENT...UP TO 1000 J/KG... DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HIGHLIGHTED OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.  FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL AFFECT THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME.  BY 00Z/SAT...PWAT VALUES WILL HAVE CLIMBED
TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE REACHING 90TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE MAY. STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE
FROM WSW AROUND 25 KTS HOWEVER WITH AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WITH
SOUTHWEST 25KT WINDS...RESULTANT MESO-BETA ELEMENTS DEMONSTRATE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF 5 TO 10 KTS.  FORTUNATELY...3 HOUR FFG MOST AREAS AROUND
2-2.5 INCHES.

FOR NOW...WL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO.  CWASP VALUES
OVER 70 PERCENT FRIDAY EVENING AS CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KTS WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO OVER 1000-1500 J/KG.  MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SEVERE SO
MARGINAL RISK LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

LEANING MORE ON 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS NAM SHOWING STRONGER MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST WI/TRI-STATE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH MID-LEVEL
OPEN TROF EXITING SOUTHEAST WI LATER SATURDAY.  HENCE WL CONTINUE
SHOWER THREAT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS LOW
LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

925H TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 3-4C LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.  SIGNFICANTLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH 925H TEMPS
COLLAPSING 10-15C FROM FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO TUESDAY AS LONG WAVE TROF SPREADS INTO
WESTERN CONUS.  HENCE QUIETER...DRIER CONDITIONS ASSOCD WITH SFC
RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SETTLED IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN FOCUSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS
AFFECTING NW WI.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP DURING THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE COOL LAKE MI WATERS CONTINUING TO
COOL THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.  RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.  HENCE INCREASING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AROUND FRI/SAT AS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS
WESTERN GTLAKES.  GFS 500H 5-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GTLAKES THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE SHOULD BE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI MORNING... A LULL MIDDAY... AND THEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY AND BRING
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 282018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/DATA ANALYSIS HAS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAKER WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WAS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND SOUTHWEST IA INTO
NORTHERN MO. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
IA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS TREND...THINKING THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR SOME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. NAM BUFKIT SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF
CAPE PER BUFKIT IN THE 1500-2500J/KG...MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER...0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SOME
SMALL HAIL/SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHERN WI...LOOK FOR
COOLER DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 60S.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CAMPS OUT OVERHEAD. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WOULD BE
THE CENTRAL SAND COUNTRY OF WI/NORTHEAST OF I-94.

LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY LONG RESPITE FROM THE DAMP WEATHER OF LATE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AS A RIDGE F HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...LOOK FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 60S...WARMING INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND ALLOWS A
TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS A FEW RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS. WITH MORE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...SOME RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT FOR THOSE
LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR PLANNING TO RECREATE ON RIVER...YOU MAY WANT
TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGY STATEMENTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281930
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED CELLS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER
MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES.  DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK.  BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER
FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  IF ANY
BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND 750 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  THINK THE PROBABILITY OF
THESE CAPES OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER.  BUT
WILL NOT KNOW THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW.
RAIN COOLED HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.



TDH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281930
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  CLOSER TO
HOME...TEMPERATURES REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENCE AXIS...HAS LED TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.  A FEW OTHER ISOLATED CELLS HAVE ALSO POPPED UP OVER
MARATHON AND WAUPACA COUNTIES.  DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE
40S AND MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH...SO THINK THIS WILL HOLD THE
INTENSITY OF STORMS IN CHECK.  BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER
FAR NE WISCONSIN WHERE ML CAPES ARE SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT A NEAR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BETWEEN ONGOING STORMS AND THE INCOMING PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE...PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
THROUGH TOMORROW.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID-EVENING.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES BY SUNRISE...CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING
AND PRECIP WILL BE APPROACHING WOOD COUNTY BY 09Z.  SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDESTORMS WILL THEN BE SPREADING NE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER SO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.  MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACKING OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY.  IF ANY
BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...PROGGED SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
SHOW BETWEEN 500 AND 750 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  THINK THE PROBABILITY OF
THESE CAPES OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO THE RAINFALL...HOWEVER.  BUT
WILL NOT KNOW THESE SORTS OF DETAILS UNTIL TRENDS EMERGE TOMORROW.
RAIN COOLED HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH....AND INTO THE UPPER 70S
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK PROMISES A DRIER AND
MILDER PERIOD WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN ARRIVING MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT...AND THE BLEND OF
TODAYS RUNS SO FAR HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THAT TREND. WILL
CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO THE SATURDAY MORNING PCPN OVER MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE THE DYNAMICS HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WHICH INCLUDES A HEALTHY 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE...RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET...PWATS NEAR 1.50 AHEAD OF A
RELATIVELY SLOW SAGGING FRONT. A FEW MODELS ALSO PROG A SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY SLOW THE FRONT BUT COULD ALSO FOCUS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL THE LIKELY RANGE OF A 1 TO 2 INCH AVERAGE
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY.  UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE THREAT OF
FROST RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPS MAY ALSO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
OVER THE FAR NORTH.

AFTER A COOL START SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GETTING A NICE
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...BETWEEN THE PCPN FROM THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ANTICIPATED 1-2 INCH RAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SO LIKELY RUN OFF WILL MAINLY AFFECT CURRENT
MAIN STEM RIVERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL STAGE. LATEST
NCRFC FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS ONLY ONE LOCATION ON THE MENOMINEE
RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING SO NO
PLANS ON A AREAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR THIS LOCATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE RIVER DOES NOT
REACH FS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO EXCEED FS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY REISSUE THE
ESF DUE TO THE EXPECTED RISE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS AGAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING.



TDH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
HYDROLOGY......TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 281750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 281750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 281750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 281750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...KEPT RAIN/THUNDER
IN THE THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT IN REALITY EXPECT
SOME DRY BREAKS. WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DETAIL/FINE-TUNE THE FORECAST
AS PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM IOWA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281706
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD IMPACT RHI.  ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.  THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281706
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD IMPACT RHI.  ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.  THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281706
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD IMPACT RHI.  ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.  THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281706
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHICH COULD IMPACT RHI.  ANY
STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING.  THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH SUNRISE.  SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY.  EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281659 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
FILTERED SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. NEAR
THE LAKESHORE... TEMPS ARE RIGHT AROUND THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY...
STILL PLEASANT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST RIGHT AROUND NOON AND TEMPS WILL DROP.

MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER COULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THIS WOULD BE
IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALLOWING FOR CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG. THE LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BUT KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY WILL HOLD OFF OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

MID CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO
THE REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL
CHANCES OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
TSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLF
FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WL TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.  ALREADY PWAW3 AND SGNW3 HAVE TURNED ONSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 281139
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 281139
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT THE TAF SITES. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 280843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 280843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

QUITE WARM TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE
STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT WK...
WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS.

THIS IS A PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV DRAGS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD
INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO ABV NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL
RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...SO
AMNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES AND A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...FOG
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FOG WL LINGER THROUGH
DAYBREAK...THEN SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. HIGH CLDS FM THE WEST WL
PROBABLY STREAM ACRS THE AREA...BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN...AT LEAST UNTIL CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...AT WHICH POINT SOME CU WL BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST MODELS GENERATED SCT PCPN DURING THE AFTN OVER E-C TO
NE WI...WITH INITIATION POSSIBLY AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE FRONT. GIVEN THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION FIRED YDA
AFTN AND THE INSTABILITY ON MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AGAIN TDA.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER NE WI...NR THE RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST FOR MAX TEMPS.

THE CONVECTION OVER ERN WI SHOULD DECR/END THIS EVENING. MODELS
WERE IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWING THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE PCPN FM THE W.
SO TRIMMED POPS BACK FM PREV FCST. ERN WI COULD VERY WELL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NGT AFTER ANY EVENING SHRA DISSIPATE.

PCPN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI. AS THE FCST STANDS NOW...CLDS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK FRI AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...MITIGATING THE SVR THREAT.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR OVER ABOUT THE SERN 1/4 OF THE FCST
AREA...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. BUT
AFTER MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO PCPN TIMING WITH THIS FCST...IT/S
HARD TO HAVE GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT WE/VE SUDDENLY GOT IT ALL
FIGURED OUT. IF FURTHER SLOWING OF THE CLDS AND PCPN BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIG DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR FRI...AND RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SVR STORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE FRI NGT/SAT MORNING PCPN CHCS/AMOUNTS
AS A CDFNT TO CONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK. NEXT PCPN CHC AFTER
SAT MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH
TO DROP WITHIN BANKFULL.

THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE CDFNT WL EXIT THE REGION FRI NGT. NAM/
ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE FNT ONLY REACHING THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SAT...WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FNT PUSHING
TOWARD CNTRL WI. THIS DIFFERENCE WL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE HOW LONG
TO HANG ON TO PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH FRI NGT AND CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
HEADED INTO SAT. HAVE HEDGED THE FCST TOWARD THE NAM/ECMWF MAINLY
DUE TO A SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CDFNT THAT WOULD THE SLOW THE
FNT`S SE PROGRESS. THEREFORE...FAIRLY HIGH POPS EXPECTED FRI
EVENING BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI LATER
FRI NGT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI FRI NGT WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
AREA RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGS WITH A 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
SOUTH.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHWR CHCS SAT MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL WI...
EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS AN AREA OF
HI PRES SETTLES OVER ONTARIO. DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
WI ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS COMPARED
TO READINGS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGS
NORTH AND LWR TO MID 60S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE BROAD AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE INTO SRN ONTARIO/NRN
GREAT LAKES SAT NGT BRINGING RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE FCST
AREA. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING E-NE WINDS...THE
THREAT OF FROST BECOMES AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN WI WHERE
WINDS WL BE THE LIGHTEST. WL CONT TO HIT THE FROST THREAT IN THE
HWO AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 30S CNTRL/E-CNTRL AND AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI. THE SFC HI
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA ON SUNDAY...PROMISING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MODEST E-SE
WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WL CONT TO RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10
DEGS WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO SAT.

AS THE SFC HI BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE
CONUS ON MON...NE WI TO REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE HI PRES...
THUS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPS. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NGT (SUNDAY NGT)...MAX TEMPS FOR MON
ARE FCST TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGS LAKESIDE...MID TO UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE.

QUIET CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MON NGT/TUE AS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO RESIDE BETWEEN THE RETREATING SFC HI TO THE EAST AND A BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK WAA TO OVERSPREAD WI. THIS WAA WL HAVE
ENUF LIFT TO GENERATE MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE
ANY PCPN. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL RISE INTO THE MID 60S ALONG LAKE
MI...LWR 70S NORTH AND MID 70S SOUTH.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BLOCKY PATTERN TO BE IN PLAY
WITH THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF AND A BROAD UPR RDG SITUATED JUST OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A SW FLOW ALOFT INTO WI WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS PROGGED TO
STILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON WED...BUT WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE STATE...ANY SHORTWAVE OR POTENTIAL LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENUF TO KICK OFF A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS. NOT
VERY CONFIDENT THIS FAR OUT ON PCPN POTENTIAL AND WOULD PREFER TO
KEEP ANY POPS RATHER LOW. MORE CONFIDENT ON THE CONTINUED WARMING
WITH MAX TEMPS FOR WED RANGING FROM THE UPR 60S NEAR LAKE MI...MID
70S N-CNTRL WI AND UPR 70S TO LWR 80S ELSEWHERE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOG WILL LEAD TO QUITE VARIABLE AND LOCALLY VERY POOR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE THAT BURNS OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TDA AND MUCH OF TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL MOVE EWD
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK PVA ALOFT. SOME MODELS ATTEMPT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL
WI...BUT DEWPOINTS AND CAPE APPEAR OVERDONE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED. THE W-E SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
IL TO OHIO WILL RETREAT EWD FOR THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO SLY FLOW INLAND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB TEMPS WARM TO
20-21C WHICH YIELDS LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

FOR LATE TNT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE AND KS WILL LIFT
NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NW WI. THE 925-850 MB FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT VERY LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. PWS INCREASE
TO 1.5 INCHES AND ELEVATED CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE
WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. THE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK WITH
THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER. THUS WENT WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS WEST OF KMSN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN ERN WI.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE OR TWO MOVES THROUGH WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH OVERALL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY MARGINAL.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL
BE GIVEN ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING...ALONG WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. DOES SEEM LIKE A
RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

925 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 19-22C RANGE FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN AT
ALL FOR HIGHS TO SHOOT UP TO AROUND 80...SO MAINTAINED WARM TEMPS.

.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE DOWN TO ABOUT THE ILLINOIS BORDER
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN
CHILLIER AIR OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY...CLIMBING BACK A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPS
WILL PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

EVEN MILDER TEMPS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS TODAY WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TNT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE
REGION ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAM. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES
OF TSTORMS AROUND SUNRISE ON FRI WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF TSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 280829
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 280829
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. LATEST 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE OVER ILLINOIS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 28.00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT AND THE FIRST IMPULSE TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NAM MUCH FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT
PER DPROG/DT...AS THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH
SURFACE FRONT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 28.00Z GFS REMAINS THE
FASTEST AMONG THE MODELS. THE 28.00Z MODELS SUGGEST FIRST IMPULSE
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS...ARW/NMM...SUGGEST SIMILAR TIMING.
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEST
TO SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF DIFFER
ON PROGRESSION OF FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW LONG
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION STAYS OVER FORECAST AREA. DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS SEVERE THREAT ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW...WITH BOTH THE 28.00Z GFS/NAM SHOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
OF 0-3KM SHEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.

UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN BEGIN
TO MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS WARMER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL A FEW RIVERS HAVE HAD SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ACROSS WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME...FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS...HOWEVER...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 280452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE DRY. IF THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ARE CORRECT...KRST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BY
28.02Z...AND KLSE WILL REMAIN DRY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST
WENT WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.

ON THURSDAY EVENING...DIURNAL MIXING WILL CAUSE THE SOUTH WINDS TO
GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE FAR
SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE MTW TAF SITE
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WILL KEEP VCSH AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER NORTHERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE FAR
SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE MTW TAF SITE
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WILL KEEP VCSH AT MTW FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER NORTHERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION CORFIDI
VECTORS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THEM INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS WELL...SO WILL USE THE HRRR TIMING AND DIMINISHING
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION CORFIDI
VECTORS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THEM INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS WELL...SO WILL USE THE HRRR TIMING AND DIMINISHING
TRENDS.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280152
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION CORFIDI
VECTORS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THEM INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS WELL...SO WILL USE THE HRRR TIMING AND DIMINISHING
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MOVEMENT OF THE SMALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION CORFIDI
VECTORS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THEM INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HRRR IS
HANDLING THIS WELL...SO WILL USE THE HRRR TIMING AND DIMINISHING
TRENDS.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280029
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
729 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO
WANING INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH AUW/CWA TO SEE IF SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED THERE.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/
LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 280029
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
729 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO
WANING INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH AUW/CWA TO SEE IF SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED THERE.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/
LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 280029
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
729 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO
WANING INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH AUW/CWA TO SEE IF SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED THERE.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/
LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280029
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
729 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCT TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WI FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING DUE TO
WANING INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH AUW/CWA TO SEE IF SHOWERS WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED THERE.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/
LIFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY...WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



000
FXUS63 KARX 272356
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
656 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH 28.02Z...A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAYLOR AND NORTHERN CLARK. THESE
STORMS WILL NOT IMPACT EITHER OF THE TAF SITES. VFR SKIES AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES UP TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272356
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
656 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH 28.02Z...A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAYLOR AND NORTHERN CLARK. THESE
STORMS WILL NOT IMPACT EITHER OF THE TAF SITES. VFR SKIES AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES UP TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY....DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272027
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 272027
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
DECENT SURFACE INVERSION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG SINCE WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CREATE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD... IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... FOR THIS REASON AS WELL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ON THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SUBTLE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR A LAKE BREEZE... SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE PROGS DO SHOW A RIPPLE IN
THE FLOW. IN ADDITION...850 LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED A BIT ON BRINGING ANY SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO
DRY THROUGH 6Z...THEN SPREAD POPS ACROSS SRN WI WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD SETTING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
WITH WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACTING AS TRIGGERING
MECHANISMS. IN ADDITION EXPECTING SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TRAVERSING EASTERN SIDE OF
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. CWASP VALUES NOT OFF THE CHARTS SO ANY SVR
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO HINGE ON ANY BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE MORNING.
ALSO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL. BETTER SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
THIS PERIOD WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND MBE VELOCITIES UNDER 10 KNOTS.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NAM/ECMWF/GEM KEEP POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS HAS ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN STORY WILL BE A MUCH MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NE WINDS OFF THE COLDER LAKE. SO THE
EAST WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 50S.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
WHICH EVENTUALLY TRANSLATES TO A RETURN FLOW.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
12Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TRENDS OF THE 00Z RUN IN KEEPING SRN WI
DRY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF WARMING TEMPS. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED
OFF FROM 00Z ON BRINGING PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH WEAK
VORT SIGNALS WITHIN THE OVERALL 582DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE. ENERGY
FROM THE PLAINS DRAWS A BIT CLOSER WEDNESDAY BUT INFLUENCE OF
THAT STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CONCERNS FROM THAT PRETTY LOW.
BUT HAVE LEFT THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS IN PLACE TO MATCH UP WITH
KARX AND KGRB...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANTICIPATED DUE TO WSW WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271931
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271931
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING EXITING TO THE EAST OVER MICHIGAN. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE THINNED OUT OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WHERE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OVER
VILAS COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR DLH WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING BREACHED.  WITH
FURTHER DAY TIME HEATING AND GROWING INSTABILITY...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  BESIDES THIS PRECIP CHANCE...FOG
POTENTIAL LATE AND SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z OR SO.  CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THEREAFTER...WHICH WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT HAVE
FALLEN RECENTLY...WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION LATE.  MOS GUIDANCE IS
NOT BULLISH ON FOG...BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.  LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEST MOISTURE
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TOMORROW...LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COMBINED WITH ML
CAPES INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FIRST ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT CENTERS ON ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REQUIRE FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
THIS WEEK. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. ITS POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ALONG A WARM FRONT...BUT WILL FOCUS POPS
WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS STARTING FRIDAY. THE SAGGING COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCLUDE A VERY STRONG H850
BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT RRQ REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PWATS CLIMBING
TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE HINTED OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN.

RIVERS ARE SWOLLEN FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW RIVERS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS. WILL
ISSUE AN ESF WITH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ON
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GROWERS WILL NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A
WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KARX 271900
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. NICE LOOP OF THE EXPERIMENTAL 1-MIN
GOES-14 RAPID SCAN SHOWS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION CLOUD FROM
DEPARTING WAVE EXITING EAST OF CENTRAL WI WHILE SCATTERED-BROKEN
CUMULUS FIELD WAS EXPANDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WI. OTHERWISE...A VERY NICE DAY IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH NORTHERN
WI EARLY ON THIS EVENING WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
FOR A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD CLOVER FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS. LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S.

LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...BUT RAINFALL
MAY GET A BIT HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CREEPING INTO THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
FAIRLY WE GROUND...WILL SEE AN INCREASED HYDROLOGY CONCERN. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...APPEARS
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOME BY CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE 70S.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR COOLER/DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS HOLD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMING INTO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY.

NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...AND A DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS...
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THRU THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW.

GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS AND NOW RATHER MOIST LANDSCAPE...
CONSIDERED A BR MENTION IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER ALSO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW...AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS LATE TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 5F OR MORE RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...FOR SFC WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR MORE
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING INTO THE 1.7-1.8 INCH
RANGE...EXPECTING SOME OF THIS RAINFALL TO BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE.
RIGHT NOW...HAVE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL FROM MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE. RIVERS HAVE BEEN
FEELING THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH SOME MODERATE RESPONSES.
WITH THIS ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL RISES. NOT THINKING FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT
DEFINITELY WITHIN BANK RISES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271712
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THEN QUITE WARM THURSDAY.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ACRS CANADA...WITH A WEAKER BUT ENERGETIC
SRN STREAM ACRS THE CONUS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...THE MEAN TROF
POSN IS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A RIDGE NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THE DEGREE OF SEPARATION OF THE STREAMS WL TEMPORARILY
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG NRN
STREAM SHRTWV SWINGS THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND DRAWS IN SOME SRN
STREAM ENERGY. BUT THE SPLIT IS EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE NEXT
WK...WITH SRN STREAM UPR TROF POSN NR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

THESE ARE PRETTY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMERTIME WX PATTERNS.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT ABV NORMAL...FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV PROGRESSING ACRS
CANADA DRAWS A COOL ANTICYCLONE SEWD INTO GREAT LAKES RGN FM NWRN
CANADA...THEN WARM BACK TO AOA NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK. THERE WL BE
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SRN STREAM WL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE...SO AMNTS
ARE LIKELY TO END UP ABV NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPR SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WX OF THE PAST 24 HRS WAS
BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN IN UPR DEFORMATION
ZONE WL WRAP BACK THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING DECR RETURNS...SO THE VERY EFFICIENT PCPN PRODUCING
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH BACK TO JUST SCT SHOWERS. WK SHRTWV
DROPPING SE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHC WL BE
OVER THE N...WHICH WL ALSO BE CLOSE TO WK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SWD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SO PLACED HIGHEST POPS IN THE N.
WLY FLOW TDA SHOULD DRIVE THE MILD AIR RIGHT TO THE LAKESHORE.
USED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS...BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS
LAKESIDE UP SOME.

SHOWERS WL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING...THEN
SKIES SHOULD CLR. GIVEN THE WK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE
AREA...WINDS WL BE LGT. AFTER ALL THE RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS...
HARD TO BELIEVE THERE WON/T BE SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NR RIVERS/STREAMS. MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ONLY HINT AT
THIS...BUT THOUGHT IT DESERVED BEING ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO NRN WI BY EARLY
THU...THEN SHOULD LIFT BACK NWD AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK. THAT
WL ALLOW VERY WARM AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WENT WITH BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED PRODUCTS FOR MAXES...WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING
MAXES UP A COUPLE DEGREES MOST AREA. THE ONE AREA THAT WL BE
COOLER IS THE LAKESHORE...AS GRADIENT SSELY FLOW WL BRING COOLER
AIR INLAND. SOME DESTABILIZATION WL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...WITH
MUCAPES OFF THE NAM IN THE 1.5-2K J/KG RANGE BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THAT IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS DWPTS MAY MIX OUT
SOME...THERE WL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA. BUT LARGE
SCALE FORCING WL BE LACKING AS UPR RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WL BE N OF THE
AREA...BUT CARRIED CHC POPS INTO FAR NRN WI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MAIN FCST FOCUS REMAINS THE ADDITIONAL PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THU NGT
THRU FRI NGT AS A SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A
MORE TRANQUIL AND COOLER PATTERN TO THEN ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER NE WI THU EVENING
AS A CDFNT MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
A PREVAILING S-SW FLOW INTO WI WL CONT TO USHER WARM/MOIST AIR
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WAA AND A SHORTWAVE COMBINING TO BRING A
DECENT CHC OF SHWRS BACK TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNGT. A MILD NGT IS
ON TAP AS MIN TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI/
BAY OF GREEN BAY...AROUND 60 DEGS ELSEWHERE.

FRI IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND POSSIBLY STORMY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE EWD MOVING CDFNT SLAMS INTO A WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER WI. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE WITH CAPES RISING TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG...LI`S DROP AS LOW AS -5 AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 6.5 C/KM. BESIDES THE FNT...THERE WL BE
ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR
JET. SHEAR THO IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE WL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD THAT WOULE LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. UNLESS WE CAN GET
SOME KIND OF BRIEF CLEARING (DOUBTFUL)...THE MAIN WORRY ON FRI
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S
AND PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE (+2 STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL). MAX TEMPS WL OBVIOUSLY BE IMPACTED BY THE PCPN WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGS N-CNTRL/LAKESHORE...UPR 70S
ACROSS E-CNTRL WI.

THE MAIN QUESTION HEADED INTO FRI NGT IS WHETHER A SFC WAVE WL
DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THE CDFNT AND HOLD PCPN ACROSS THE BULK OF WI
THRU THE NGT. EVEN IF A SFC WAVE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE WEAKENING
SHOFTWAVE TROF WOULD BE ENUF TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH EITHER OF
THESE SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE FOCUSED HIGHER POPS FOR FRI EVENING AND
THEN BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
DRIER AIR WL START TO ADVECT INTO WI ON NORTH WINDS. A PRETTY GOOD
BURST OF CAA IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40-45 DEG RANGE NORTH...45-50 DEG RANGE SOUTH. ANY
SMALL LINGERING PCPN CHC OVER E-CNTRL WI WL END EARLY SAT MORNING
AS A LARGE CANADIAN AREA OF HI PRES MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND FEEDS
DRIER AIR INTO WI ON BRISK NE WINDS. EVEN WITH THE RETURN OF
SUNSHINE BY SAT AFTERNOON...PREVAILING CAA WL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY TO THE MID 50S FAR NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...AROUND 60 DEGS
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE HI PRES IS FCST TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE COOL/QUIET WEATHER INTACT.
SAT NGT CONTS TO LOOK DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH POTENTIAL FROST
HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST NRN WI AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE 30S. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN SAT AS WINDS VEER MORE EAST
THAN NE. THIS WOULD PLACE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S NEAR LAKE MI...
60-65 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE. EVEN THO THE SFC HI LW SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NE CONUS BY THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...NE WI TO STILL BE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HI SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO GREATER THAN +10C. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS ON MON TO REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE
(UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...BUT COOLER LAKESIDE).

BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN
THE PROCESS OF RELOADING AS A NEW UPR TROF TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
WRN CONUS...A W-SW MEAN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A
CDFNT TO BE DRAPED FROM THE NRN PLAINS E-NE TO ROUGHLY LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL
EVENTUALLY DETERMINE PCPN CHCS...MAINLY FOR NRN WI MON NGT INTO
TUE. HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IMPINGES SMALL POPS
TOWARD NRN WI. MAX TEMPS WL CONT TO SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS BY
TUE REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S (60S NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RETURN ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BACK TO VFR.  CLOUDS WILL BUILD AGAIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  EXPECTED COVERAGE TO BE A LITTLE TOO SPARSE TO
MENTION AT RHI EXPLICITLY.  COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC



000
FXUS63 KARX 271705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...AND A DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS...
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THRU THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS AND NOW RATHER MOIST LANDSCAPE...
CONSIDERED A BR MENTION IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER ALSO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW...AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS LATE TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 5F OR MORE RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...FOR SFC WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 271705
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...AND A DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS...
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THRU THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS AND NOW RATHER MOIST LANDSCAPE...
CONSIDERED A BR MENTION IN BOTH KRST/KLSE TAFS IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER ALSO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW...AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS LATE TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 5F OR MORE RANGE...ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...FOR SFC WINDS IN THE 5-8KT RANGE AROUND
SUNRISE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271543
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS WI THIS MORNING IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. STRONG DAVA WILL THEN HELP ERODE A
STRATUS DECK INTO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
SHOULD THEN CLIMB RAPIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE
TOWARD CENTRAL WI AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS FEATURE. CLEARING
THEN EXPECTED FOR TNT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT LATE WITH LIGHT
SWLY WINDS AT THE SFC. MILD LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS SWING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT040-050 CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271543
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS WI THIS MORNING IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. STRONG DAVA WILL THEN HELP ERODE A
STRATUS DECK INTO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
SHOULD THEN CLIMB RAPIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND WOULD LIKELY BE
TOWARD CENTRAL WI AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS FEATURE. CLEARING
THEN EXPECTED FOR TNT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT LATE WITH LIGHT
SWLY WINDS AT THE SFC. MILD LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS SWING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCT040-050 CUMULUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271127
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LATEST 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY IS HOW LONG FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LATEST 27.05Z HRRR/27.00Z NAM/27.03Z RAP SHOWS
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL DELAY EXIT OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT
CLOUD TRENDS AND POSSIBLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO TRACK OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE
LATEST 27.06Z HRRR/27.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE CONTINUE TREND FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES OCCUR WITH TIMING OF THE FIRST IMPULSE
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE IMPULSE INTO THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THEN...MORE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 27.00Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE 27.00Z GFS IS
FASTER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAST THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE 27.00Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR AND TRY TO
BUILD 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY/CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERDONE IN THE
MODELS THIS FAR OUT. FOR RIGHT NOW...SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS LOW FRIDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES OCCUR ON AMPLIFICATION
OF RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 27.00Z GEM MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE 27.00Z GFS KEEPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
SURFACE/SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA
FILTERS COOLER AIRMASS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO PLUS 1 TO PLUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE ADVECT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TODAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION NEAR THE
SURFACE. A WEAK FRONT EDGES SOUTH TODAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



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