[top]
000
FXUS63 KARX 250448
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE FASTER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
RIDING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING / PV
ADVECTION. MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS AND 18Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SLIDING SOUTH/EAST MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SPED UP PRECIPITATION WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1003 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...KEPT SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MESO AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND HRRR MOVE THIS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY 25.06Z. MEANWHILE THE
NMM...ARW...GFS...GEM...RAP... AND NAM MAINLY CONFINE THE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH
LESS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND DRIER AIR...DECIDED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
LATTER MODEL SET. IN ADDITION...THE RADAR ECHOS ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. EVEN BY DOING
THIS...THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS AMONGST THEM...SO TRIED TO GO WITH
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHEN ASSIGNING THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AMOUNTS /UP TO A
HALF INCH/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A DECREASING TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WITH THE 24.12Z AND 24.18Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE LESS THAN 100 J/KG CAPES...JUST KEPT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH IF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS...THE CONSALL HAS CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IT NOW HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THESE AREAS. SINCE THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY VERIFIES THE BEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE CONSALL...CONSALLBC...AND ECMWF.
FROM MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW ML CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 1K TO 3K J/KG RANGE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON WHERE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS
THE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LOCATED. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THUS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS SET UP ALONG AND JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE FORCING WEAKENS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THOUGH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AT RST. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH OVERALL FORCING BEING WEAK INTO THE NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE SHALLOW INVERSION AROUND 3KFT TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS...PARTICULARLY AT RST. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS IT
PREVIOUSLY WAS...HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
[top]
000
FXUS63 KGRB 250347
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS IS INVADING NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS CREATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS WARM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A JET STREAK...BETWEEN A SE DIVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET STREAK WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MODELS SPIT OUT A COUPLE BANDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...THOUGH DIFFER IN
THEIR PLACEMENT. THE LARGEST BAND WILL BE TIED TO THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH THE NAM/GFS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MESOMODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS BAND OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WHERE THIS BAND WILL END UP.
BUT LIGHT LOW LEVEL SE WINDS WILL SUPPLY A STEADY DIET OF DRY
AIR...SO PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FALL OUT OF A MID-DECK...AND GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING...CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED. GIVEN THE LOW IMPACT AND TO MATCH UP WITH
OFFICES TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOWERING CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. PATCHY
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY...RIGHT REAR QUAD WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING. ANY SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING
EARLY SO IT DOES NOT SEEM WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR TO RETURN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE MORNING ONWARD WHEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS. CLOUDS TO HANG LONGER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN BIG PICTURE WITH STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE EAST WHILE TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME MODEL DISCONNECT WITH HOW
HANDLE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY EXITING WESTERN TROF INTO THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN LAKES LATE THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD. HAVE STAYED TOWARD
DRIER EC/GFS...WITH IDEA THAT HIGH WILL KEEP PCPN TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SUN AND MON. NAM APPEARS THE OUTLIER...TOO STRONG AND FAST. LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WI...WITH PATCHY FROST OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST WI.
TROF DEEPENS WEST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK PUMPING UP RIDGE JUST TO
OUR EAST. THIS TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS...OR THROUGH STATE.
AGAIN SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAR NORTH FRONT WILL GO...WITH EC
LINGERING IT OVER NORTHERN WI. COULD BE LOOKING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER NEXT WED/THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PW`S INCREASE TO 1.5.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY AND COULD PRODUCE VIRGA OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OVER CENTRAL
OR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE REMAINING VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
GOOD FLYING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
[top]
000
FXUS63 KMKX 250243 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR WEST A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAY HAVE TO UP THE PROBABILITIES IF THE BAND
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION BAND...TRACKING WITH 700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL REACH FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF IOWA AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1115 PM. LATEST NAM AND HI-
RES SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING/DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NARROW BAND OF
BETTER FORCING AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BACK TO
THE WEST CLOSER TO THE FOCUSED 850-700 MB WRM ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO REACH KMSN AROUND/AFTER 09Z...HOWEVER
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION ONLY MOISTENING
THE COLUMN DOWN TO AROUND 6-7K FT...AND VERY DRY BELOW THAT...SO
ONLY EXPECTING SPRINKLES AT BEST FOR NOW. INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD ANY PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA...SOUTHWEST OF KLNR OT KJVL...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THE 850MB
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. THIS AREA THEN GRADUALLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE
POINTING MORE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA SATURDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE 850MB
FEATURES...AND SUBSEQUENT QPF. ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE OTHERS MAINLY DRY.
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SATURDAY IN A SIMILAR AREA...WITH THE
OTHER MODELS MAINLY DRY.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
EAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TONIGHT AND LIMIT HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO MORE NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL WI SUN NGT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. NEVER THE
LESS...WL CONTINUE TO KEEP SMALL POPS SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON SAT
NGT AND SUN DUE TO NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE. BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION SUN NGT INTO MONDAY AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONES SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE VICINITY ALONG WITH PIECES OF
UPSTREAM MCS-INDUCED VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHARPENING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES INTO BASE OF
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING NORTHWARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT HOWEVER DIFFERENCES OF TIMING OF WARM FRONT PROGRESSION
DUE TO AMOUNT AND AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF FRONT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY 00Z/WED...GEM AND GFS HAS PUSHED
WMFNT INTO NRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF NORTHWARD MOVING WMFNT DURING THIS PERIOD...HENCE HIGHEST CHANCE
POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEARBY CONVECTION VCNTY OF WMFNT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SRN WI
LATER PERIODS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT MOST DAYTIME ACTIVITY. MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD SETTLE IN DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
NUDING MAX TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 80S.
THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF
JUNE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT MADISON.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY
REMAINING HIGH WAVES TO SUBSIDE TO UNDER 4 FEET.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK
000
FXUS63 KGRB 250015
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
715 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS IS INVADING NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS CREATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS WARM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A JET STREAK...BETWEEN A SE DIVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET STREAK WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MODELS SPIT OUT A COUPLE BANDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...THOUGH DIFFER IN
THEIR PLACEMENT. THE LARGEST BAND WILL BE TIED TO THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH THE NAM/GFS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MESOMODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS BAND OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WHERE THIS BAND WILL END UP.
BUT LIGHT LOW LEVEL SE WINDS WILL SUPPLY A STEADY DIET OF DRY
AIR...SO PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FALL OUT OF A MID-DECK...AND GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING...CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED. GIVEN THE LOW IMPACT AND TO MATCH UP WITH
OFFICES TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOWERING CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. PATCHY
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY...RIGHT REAR QUAD WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING. ANY SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING
EARLY SO IT DOES NOT SEEM WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR TO RETURN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE MORNING ONWARD WHEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS. CLOUDS TO HANG LONGER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN BIG PICTURE WITH STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE EAST WHILE TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME MODEL DISCONNECT WITH HOW
HANDLE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY EXITING WESTERN TROF INTO THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN LAKES LATE THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD. HAVE STAYED TOWARD
DRIER EC/GFS...WITH IDEA THAT HIGH WILL KEEP PCPN TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SUN AND MON. NAM APPEARS THE OUTLIER...TOO STRONG AND FAST. LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WI...WITH PATCHY FROST OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST WI.
TROF DEEPENS WEST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK PUMPING UP RIDGE JUST TO
OUR EAST. THIS TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS...OR THROUGH STATE.
AGAIN SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAR NORTH FRONT WILL GO...WITH EC
LINGERING IT OVER NORTHERN WI. COULD BE LOOKING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER NEXT WED/THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PW`S INCREASE TO 1.5.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE VIRGA OR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......RDM
000
FXUS63 KARX 242346
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
646 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE FASTER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
RIDING ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND COMBINED WITH SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING / PV
ADVECTION. MOST OF THE MESO-MODELS AND 18Z GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SLIDING SOUTH/EAST MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SO HAVE SPED UP PRECIPITATION WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1003 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...KEPT SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MESO AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND HRRR MOVE THIS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY 25.06Z. MEANWHILE THE
NMM...ARW...GFS...GEM...RAP... AND NAM MAINLY CONFINE THE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH
LESS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND DRIER AIR...DECIDED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
LATTER MODEL SET. IN ADDITION...THE RADAR ECHOS ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. EVEN BY DOING
THIS...THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS AMONGST THEM...SO TRIED TO GO WITH
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHEN ASSIGNING THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AMOUNTS /UP TO A
HALF INCH/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A DECREASING TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WITH THE 24.12Z AND 24.18Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE LESS THAN 100 J/KG CAPES...JUST KEPT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH IF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS...THE CONSALL HAS CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IT NOW HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THESE AREAS. SINCE THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY VERIFIES THE BEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE CONSALL...CONSALLBC...AND ECMWF.
FROM MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW ML CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 1K TO 3K J/KG RANGE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON WHERE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS
THE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LOCATED. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THUS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND. THIS WILL IMPACT KRST BY 01Z...AND 03Z KLSE. INSTABILITY IS
VERY LIMITED AND DROPS OFF VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO
THUNDER CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. THE RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF 10 KFT
BASES MOSTLY...AND THESE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND
SATURATES...A LOWERING TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT KRST BY 14Z SATURDAY.
AT KLSE...ONLY LOW-END VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EVEN IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE FORECAST
MODELS SHOW THE BACK-EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z SATURDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THAT TREND.
CEILINGS WILL HANG ON THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
HOWEVER.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZT
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
000
FXUS63 KARX 242036
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1003 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...KEPT SKIES PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...A SHORT WAVE WAS PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MESO AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE ECMWF AND HRRR MOVE THIS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY 25.06Z. MEANWHILE THE
NMM...ARW...GFS...GEM...RAP... AND NAM MAINLY CONFINE THE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...AND
THEN MOVES IT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH
LESS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND DRIER AIR...DECIDED TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
LATTER MODEL SET. IN ADDITION...THE RADAR ECHOS ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND. EVEN BY DOING
THIS...THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS AMONGST THEM...SO TRIED TO GO WITH
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHEN ASSIGNING THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AMOUNTS /UP TO A
HALF INCH/ WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SATURDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH A DECREASING TREND
IN THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAIFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
WITH THE 24.12Z AND 24.18Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE LESS THAN 100 J/KG CAPES...JUST KEPT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH IF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS...THE CONSALL HAS CONTINUED
TO TREND TOWARD COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. IT NOW HAS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THESE AREAS. SINCE THE ECMWF
TYPICALLY VERIFIES THE BEST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE CONSALL...CONSALLBC...AND EMCWF.
FROM MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW
THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW ML CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 1K TO 3K J/KG RANGE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE 0-3KM SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
ON WHERE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED. THIS GREATLY AFFECTS
THE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE LOCATED. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...THUS...THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER WYOMING IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE MEAN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
THEN BEND TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE FOCUSED INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG BY THE TIME IT BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE AND THE WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE
WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS THE RAIN SATURATES THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO LOWER. THE
24.09Z SREF SHOWS THE BETTER PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS AT KRST. THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY BUT DOES CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
000
FXUS63 KMKX 242025
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THE 850MB
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. THIS AREA THEN GRADUALLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE
POINTING MORE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA SATURDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE 850MB
FEATURES...AND SUBSEQUENT QPF. ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE OTHERS MAINLY DRY.
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SATURDAY IN A SIMILAR AREA...WITH THE
OTHER MODELS MAINLY DRY.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
EAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TONIGHT AND LIMIT HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO MORE NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL WI SUN NGT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. NEVER THE
LESS...WL CONTINUE TO KEEP SMALL POPS SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON SAT
NGT AND SUN DUE TO NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE. BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION SUN NGT INTO MONDAY AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONES SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE VICINITY ALONG WITH PIECES OF
UPSTREAM MCS-INDUCED VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHARPENING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES INTO BASE OF
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING NORTHWARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT HOWEVER DIFFERENCES OF TIMING OF WARM FRONT PROGRESSION
DUE TO AMOUNT AND AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF FRONT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY 00Z/WED...GEM AND GFS HAS PUSHED
WMFNT INTO NRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF NORTHWARD MOVING WMFNT DURING THIS PERIOD...HENCE HIGHEST CHANCE
POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEARBY CONVECTION VCNTY OF WMFNT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SRN WI
LATER PERIODS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT MOST DAYTIME ACTIVITY. MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD SETTLE IN DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
NUDING MAX TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 80S.
THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF
JUNE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT MADISON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY
REMAINING HIGH WAVES TO SUBSIDE TO UNDER 4 FEET.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
000
FXUS63 KGRB 241948
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS IS INVADING NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING. LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS CREATING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS WARM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A JET STREAK...BETWEEN A SE DIVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
THIS JET STREAK WILL SHIFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MODELS SPIT OUT A COUPLE BANDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT OF
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE...THOUGH DIFFER IN
THEIR PLACEMENT. THE LARGEST BAND WILL BE TIED TO THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH THE NAM/GFS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z MESOMODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS BAND OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL WHERE THIS BAND WILL END UP.
BUT LIGHT LOW LEVEL SE WINDS WILL SUPPLY A STEADY DIET OF DRY
AIR...SO PRECIP WILL HAVE TO FALL OUT OF A MID-DECK...AND GIVEN THE
WEAK FORCING...CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER MENTIONED. GIVEN THE LOW IMPACT AND TO MATCH UP WITH
OFFICES TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A LOWERING CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND WILL GO WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. PATCHY
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY...RIGHT REAR QUAD WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING. ANY SPRINKLE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING
EARLY SO IT DOES NOT SEEM WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST. THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR TO RETURN TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE MORNING ONWARD WHEN SHOULD SEE DECREASING
CLOUDS. CLOUDS TO HANG LONGER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE 60S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN BIG PICTURE WITH STRENGTHENING
RIDGE IN THE EAST WHILE TROF PERSISTS OVER THE WEST. PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME MODEL DISCONNECT WITH HOW
HANDLE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY EXITING WESTERN TROF INTO THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN LAKES LATE THIS HOLIDAY PERIOD. HAVE STAYED TOWARD
DRIER EC/GFS...WITH IDEA THAT HIGH WILL KEEP PCPN TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SUN AND MON. NAM APPEARS THE OUTLIER...TOO STRONG AND FAST. LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR
NORTHEAST WI...WITH PATCHY FROST OVER PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST WI.
TROF DEEPENS WEST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK PUMPING UP RIDGE JUST TO
OUR EAST. THIS TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS...OR THROUGH STATE.
AGAIN SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAR NORTH FRONT WILL GO...WITH EC
LINGERING IT OVER NORTHERN WI. COULD BE LOOKING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER NEXT WED/THU WITH POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS PW`S INCREASE TO 1.5.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN ANY SPRINKLES
THAT DEVELOP LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT SHOULD BE FALLING OUT OF A MIDDLE
CLD DECK WITH HIGH BASES. &&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KGRB 241801
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
101 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH UPR TROFS OVER
THE PAC NW AND ERN NOAM...WITH A SHARP RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE ERN
TROF WL LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN PULL OFF TO THE
NE. STG JET WL WORK EWD ACRS THE PAC THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EVENTUALLY ADDING CONSIDERABLE ENERGY TO THE WRN TROF. THAT
WL CAUSE IT TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM MID-CONTINENT RIDGE
BROADENING AND EXPANDING EWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING ERN TROF. THE
CHANGES WL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LONGER WAVELENGTH PATTERN WITH
UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...AND BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST
OF THE ERN CONUS.
NWLY UPR FLOW HAS USHERED A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA...SO
TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL. BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD AS UPR HEIGHTS RISE...WITH READINGS REACHING ABV
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. HUMIDITIES WL PROBABLY
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. THERE IS LITTLE CHC FOR SIG PCPN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUCH WL BE MUCH HIGHER DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WK WHEN THE WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES
IN THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY SETS UP ACRS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
QUIET WX EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WL LINGER ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES RGN THROUGH SAT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TDA. GUID TEMPS
STILL SEEMED A LITTLE COOL...SO STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST.
MID-LVL SHRTWV WL FORCE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE
POSN TNGT...THEN TURN SE AND HEAD INTO THE BASE OF THE ERN NOAM
TROF SAT. UPR SPEED MAX SLIDING DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE
WL BE PULLING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN AT THE SAME TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FM THE SHRTWV...DIV IN THE RRQ OF THE
UPR JET...AND SOME ISENT LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A BAND OF PCPN TO OUR W
EARLY TNGT. THAT PCPN WL PUSH E TOWARD THE FCST AREA LATE TNGT...
BUT WL ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. QUESTION IS HOW FAR E
PCPN CAN GET BEFORE IT WIPES OUT. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW SEEM TO BE IN COMIMG INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. FOLLOWED THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM...BOTH OF WHICH
SUGGEST SOME LGT PCPN WL BRUSH THE W LATE TNGT AND VERY EARLY SAT
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SINCE WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE PCPN FALLING
OUT OF A MID-DECK AND INTO DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS...OPTED TO GO
WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLDS WL MITIGATE THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE N...BUT THE FAR NE COULD STILL FALL
OFF ENOUGH EARLIER IN THE NGT TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FROST.
ONCE THE SHRTWV SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE LATER SAT...DRY AIR FM THE E
WL STRENGTHEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECR
IN CLDS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAR EAST CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS MAKES INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...THUS KEPT IT DRY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN FOLLOWED THE ECMWF ON
MONDAY WHICH INDICATED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD DRY UP BY
THE TIME IT REACHED MARSHFIELD AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS. DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY
JUST IN CASE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SNEAK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF
THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
500MB RIDGE WHICH IS COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE RING OF FIRE. COULD BE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICK WARM FRONT LEFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION SET UP.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND ON THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AND WOULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR IT STILL VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ALSO MAX
TEMPERATURES ALSO PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THESE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT...AND A
FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD BASES TO
REMAIN HIGH...SO VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KARX 241714
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/JET WILL KICK OFF/ENHANCE SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS OVER MN/NORTHERN IA TONIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST. MODELS AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER ON WHERE THE MORE LIKELY PCPN WILL
LIE...GENERATING THE MAIN MASS OF PCPN IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. THIS LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE
HIGHER PCPN CHANCES. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST FOR
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TROUGH HOLDS WEST OF THE RIDGE...SPITTING OUT
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE NOT AN OVERTLY
STRONG...BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN...ITS NOT MOVING VERY FAST AT
ALL...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 250-300 MB JETS TO MOVE IT ALONG.
AND DESPITE HAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THIS DOES NOT MEAN ITS GOING TO BE DRY.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A WARM FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FINALLY
GETTING A PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FAIRLY PERSISTENT INTO AND THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSPORT WILL BE A MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WHERE THIS NOSES INTO WILL
HOUSE THE BETTER INITIATION REGIONS. MODELS FOCUS THEIR QPF ON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT - VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND CAN/T FAULT
THIS PLACEMENT. ANY MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION...ALTHOUGH FERRETING OUT WHERE THESE MAY MOVE IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE PUSH NORTHWARD ON TUE OF THE WARM FRONT...WARMER/SEASONABLE
AIR SHOULD RETURN...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.
OVERALL...RAIN WILL BE ON THE RADAR NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT DOES NOT MEAN
EVERYDAY WILL BE A WASH OUT THOUGH...OR THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN
EVERYDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER WYOMING IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE MEAN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AN AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
THEN BEND TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE FOCUSED INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG BY THE TIME IT BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE AND THE WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE
WILL MOVE INTO BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS THE RAIN SATURATES THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CEILINGS TO LOWER. THE
24.09Z SREF SHOWS THE BETTER PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS AT KRST. THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY BUT DOES CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...04
000
FXUS63 KMKX 241655 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. DEW POINTS WERE
UPDATED AND LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER MIXING TODAY. OTHERWISE
A QUIET...SUNNY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE. 925 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND
10/11 DEGREES CELSIUS WEST TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS EAST...WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 63 F WEST TO 56 F EAST.
THIS THINKING MATCHES THE INHERITED FORECAST WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH AMPLE INSOLATION TODAY AND ADEQUATE MIXING. TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THEIR SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AT MADISON.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 21Z FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES...AS NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL SEE WAVES BELOW 4 FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME EASTERLY BY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST TO LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LIGHT WINDS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT AND SUBSEQUENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR IT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON THE ECMWF YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A COOL LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP ERN WI IN THE
50S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TNT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHING. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THAT REGION LATER TODAY AND TNT. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION...VIA MOST MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AGGRESSIVE NAM. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW. MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SO PCPN COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR WRN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST TNT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE EVENING OR JUST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ACROSS THIS
RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEIR FOCUS AND TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL LINE UP FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA
TO NORTHERN IL AND MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL MEAN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE STUCK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THUS...TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION VS. THE VERY
WET NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SW OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
JANESVILLE. BEST TIME FOR THIS PRECIP WOULD BE WITH AN MCS OVER MN
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND CLIPPING SOME OF OUR AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE 850MB WARM FRONT
WILL BE NUDGING INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT
GETTING NORTH OF THE MKX AREA IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO
NORTHERN WI ALREADY TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DELAYS IT UNTIL WED MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL
OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WITH DECENT SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIME OF DAY THESE MOVE ACROSS...WHICH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SUMMER WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND PROBABLY REMAIN
SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKESHORE AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER FOR KMSN AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT BUT
CLOUD BASES WILL ONLY FALL TO 8-10.0 KFT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THE LIGHT SHOWERS IF THEY DO OCCUR.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING.
HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT BRISK NLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI TODAY AND
TNT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
000
FXUS63 KARX 241153
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
653 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/JET WILL KICK OFF/ENHANCE SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS OVER MN/NORTHERN IA TONIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST. MODELS AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER ON WHERE THE MORE LIKELY PCPN WILL
LIE...GENERATING THE MAIN MASS OF PCPN IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. THIS LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE
HIGHER PCPN CHANCES. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST FOR
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TROUGH HOLDS WEST OF THE RIDGE...SPITTING OUT
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE NOT AN OVERTLY
STRONG...BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN...ITS NOT MOVING VERY FAST AT
ALL...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 250-300 MB JETS TO MOVE IT ALONG.
AND DESPITE HAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THIS DOES NOT MEAN ITS GOING TO BE DRY.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A WARM FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FINALLY
GETTING A PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FAIRLY PERSISTENT INTO AND THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSPORT WILL BE A MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WHERE THIS NOSES INTO WILL
HOUSE THE BETTER INITIATION REGIONS. MODELS FOCUS THEIR QPF ON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT - VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND CAN/T FAULT
THIS PLACEMENT. ANY MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION...ALTHOUGH FERRETING OUT WHERE THESE MAY MOVE IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE PUSH NORTHWARD ON TUE OF THE WARM FRONT...WARMER/SEASONABLE
AIR SHOULD RETURN...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.
OVERALL...RAIN WILL BE ON THE RADAR NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT DOES NOT MEAN
EVERYDAY WILL BE A WASH OUT THOUGH...OR THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN
EVERYDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE HIGH
EDGES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 2KFT AT KRST LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVE IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
000
FXUS63 KGRB 240852
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
352 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH UPR TROFS OVER
THE PAC NW AND ERN NOAM...WITH A SHARP RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE ERN
TROF WL LINGER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN PULL OFF TO THE
NE. STG JET WL WORK EWD ACRS THE PAC THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...EVENTUALLY ADDING CONSIDERABLE ENERGY TO THE WRN TROF. THAT
WL CAUSE IT TO EXPAND EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM MID-CONTINENT RIDGE
BROADENING AND EXPANDING EWD BEHIND THE DEPARTING ERN TROF. THE
CHANGES WL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LONGER WAVELENGTH PATTERN WITH
UPR TROF CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES...AND BROAD RIDGING OVER MOST
OF THE ERN CONUS.
NWLY UPR FLOW HAS USHERED A CHILLY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA...SO
TEMPS WL START OUT BLO NORMAL. BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD AS UPR HEIGHTS RISE...WITH READINGS REACHING ABV
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. HUMIDITIES WL PROBABLY
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. THERE IS LITTLE CHC FOR SIG PCPN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUCH WL BE MUCH HIGHER DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WK WHEN THE WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES
IN THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY SETS UP ACRS THE RGN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
QUIET WX EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WL LINGER ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES RGN THROUGH SAT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TDA. GUID TEMPS
STILL SEEMED A LITTLE COOL...SO STUCK CLOSE TO PREV FCST.
MID-LVL SHRTWV WL FORCE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE
POSN TNGT...THEN TURN SE AND HEAD INTO THE BASE OF THE ERN NOAM
TROF SAT. UPR SPEED MAX SLIDING DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPR RIDGE
WL BE PULLING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES RGN AT THE SAME TIME.
THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FM THE SHRTWV...DIV IN THE RRQ OF THE
UPR JET...AND SOME ISENT LIFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A BAND OF PCPN TO OUR W
EARLY TNGT. THAT PCPN WL PUSH E TOWARD THE FCST AREA LATE TNGT...
BUT WL ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. QUESTION IS HOW FAR E
PCPN CAN GET BEFORE IT WIPES OUT. THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW SEEM TO BE IN COMIMG INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. FOLLOWED THE LATEST ECMWF AND NAM...BOTH OF WHICH
SUGGEST SOME LGT PCPN WL BRUSH THE W LATE TNGT AND VERY EARLY SAT
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SINCE WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE PCPN FALLING
OUT OF A MID-DECK AND INTO DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS...OPTED TO GO
WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLDS WL MITIGATE THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THE N...BUT THE FAR NE COULD STILL FALL
OFF ENOUGH EARLIER IN THE NGT TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FROST.
ONCE THE SHRTWV SHIFTS OFF TO THE SE LATER SAT...DRY AIR FM THE E
WL STRENGTHEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECR
IN CLDS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN HOW
FAR EAST CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS MAKES INTO WISCONSIN FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...THUS KEPT IT DRY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN FOLLOWED THE ECMWF ON
MONDAY WHICH INDICATED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD DRY UP BY
THE TIME IT REACHED MARSHFIELD AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS. DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON MEMORIAL DAY
JUST IN CASE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SNEAK INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF
THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
500MB RIDGE WHICH IS COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE RING OF FIRE. COULD BE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICK WARM FRONT LEFT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION SET UP.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AND ON THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE AND WOULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR IT STILL VERY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ALSO MAX
TEMPERATURES ALSO PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THESE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THUS HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVEN ANY SPRINKLES
THAT DEVELOP LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT SHOULD BE FALLING OUT OF A MIDDLE
CLD DECK WITH HIGH BASES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ020-022-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
000
FXUS63 KMKX 240835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON THE ECMWF YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A COOL LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP ERN WI IN THE
50S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TNT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHING. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THAT REGION LATER TODAY AND TNT. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION...VIA MOST MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AGGRESSIVE NAM. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW. MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SO PCPN COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR WRN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST TNT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE EVENING OR JUST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ACROSS THIS
RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEIR FOCUS AND TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL LINE UP FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA
TO NORTHERN IL AND MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL MEAN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE STUCK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THUS...TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION VS. THE VERY
WET NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SW OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
JANESVILLE. BEST TIME FOR THIS PRECIP WOULD BE WITH AN MCS OVER MN
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND CLIPPING SOME OF OUR AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE 850MB WARM FRONT
WILL BE NUDGING INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT
GETTING NORTH OF THE MKX AREA IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO
NORTHERN WI ALREADY TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DELAYS IT UNTIL WED MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL
OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WITH DECENT SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIME OF DAY THESE MOVE ACROSS...WHICH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SUMMER WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND PROBABLY REMAIN
SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKESHORE AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER FOR KMSN AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT BUT
CLOUD BASES WILL ONLY FALL TO 8-10.0 KFT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THE LIGHT SHOWERS IF THEY DO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING.
HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT BRISK NLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI TODAY AND
TNT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-058>060-064-065-070.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
000
FXUS63 KARX 240729
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/JET WILL KICK OFF/ENHANCE SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS OVER MN/NORTHERN IA TONIGHT...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE COMPLEX SOUTHEAST. MODELS AT
ODDS WITH EACH OTHER ON WHERE THE MORE LIKELY PCPN WILL
LIE...GENERATING THE MAIN MASS OF PCPN IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
LOCATIONS. THIS LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE TO PLACE THE
HIGHER PCPN CHANCES. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND WILL SIDE WITH THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST FOR
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TROUGH HOLDS WEST OF THE RIDGE...SPITTING OUT
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE NOT AN OVERTLY
STRONG...BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN...ITS NOT MOVING VERY FAST AT
ALL...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 250-300 MB JETS TO MOVE IT ALONG.
AND DESPITE HAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THIS DOES NOT MEAN ITS GOING TO BE DRY.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A WARM FRONT HANGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FINALLY
GETTING A PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. 850
MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FAIRLY PERSISTENT INTO AND THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSPORT WILL BE A MAIN
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WHERE THIS NOSES INTO WILL
HOUSE THE BETTER INITIATION REGIONS. MODELS FOCUS THEIR QPF ON THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT - VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND CAN/T FAULT
THIS PLACEMENT. ANY MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE ANOTHER
CONSIDERATION...ALTHOUGH FERRETING OUT WHERE THESE MAY MOVE IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE PUSH NORTHWARD ON TUE OF THE WARM FRONT...WARMER/SEASONABLE
AIR SHOULD RETURN...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.
OVERALL...RAIN WILL BE ON THE RADAR NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT DOES NOT MEAN
EVERYDAY WILL BE A WASH OUT THOUGH...OR THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN
EVERYDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 15-20KT RANGE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT RST. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING THE RAIN
APPEARS TO BE AFTER 6Z...BUT RST COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
A TAD EARLIER. EVEN AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THE ONSET. THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE LAYER SATURATES OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY TIL 7 AM CDT FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....RIECK
LONG TERM......RIECK
AVIATION.......HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KARX 240428
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1128 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE FROST TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRODUCING GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR
EAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM ARE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...THE
23.12Z GFS/NAM BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS
LOW...BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THESE AREAS AND FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. HAVE EXPANDED
FROST ADVISORY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.
NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF AREA AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TOO HOW FAR EAST SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT MOVES...
WILL DETERMINE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA TO TRACK INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 925-850MB
LAYER AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LESS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-500
J/KG MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY WEST OF
FORECAST AREA AND NO SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
FLATTENING RIDGE AND PUSHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE AREA...
WHEREAS THE 23.12Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND PLACES SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASED ON THESE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 23.12Z MODELS. FOR
NOW... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...AS
THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 15-20KT RANGE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT RST. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SEEING THE RAIN
APPEARS TO BE AFTER 6Z...BUT RST COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
A TAD EARLIER. EVEN AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THE ONSET. THIS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE LAYER SATURATES OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KGRB 240350
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NO CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED...AND THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF
0.26 INCHES...WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
THINK EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS AREA RELATIVELY SAFER
FROM FROST THAT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. BUT OUTLYING AREAS COULD
STILL SEE PATCHY FROST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE FROST
FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ020-022-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MPC
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KMKX 240240
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES COOLED WELL INLAND AND WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP TO PREVENT FROST IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKE FALL WITH A WARM LAKE...SO THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS INLAND WILL GIVE MUCH PROTECTION. MODIS LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 41.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 40 IN THE KETTLE MORAINE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-058>060-064-065-070.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK
000
FXUS63 KGRB 240157
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
NO CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED...AND THE 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF
0.26 INCHES...WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
THINK EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THIS AREA RELATIVELY SAFER
FROM FROST THAT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. BUT OUTLYING AREAS COULD
STILL SEE PATCHY FROST.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FROST FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........MPC
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KGRB 232334
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
GOOD FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO AN
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING...WHICH WILL PROMOTE FROST FORMATION ON AIRCRAFT LATE
TONIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
000
FXUS63 KARX 232257
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
557 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE FROST TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRODUCING GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR
EAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM ARE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...THE
23.12Z GFS/NAM BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS
LOW...BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THESE AREAS AND FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. HAVE EXPANDED
FROST ADVISORY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.
NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF AREA AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TOO HOW FAR EAST SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT MOVES...
WILL DETERMINE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA TO TRACK INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 925-850MB
LAYER AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LESS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-500
J/KG MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY WEST OF
FORECAST AREA AND NO SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
FLATTENING RIDGE AND PUSHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE AREA...
WHEREAS THE 23.12Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND PLACES SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASED ON THESE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 23.12Z MODELS. FOR
NOW... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...AS
THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT RST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION...HALBACH
000
FXUS63 KMKX 232026
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
000
FXUS63 KARX 232015
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE FROST TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRODUCING GOOD
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES ON HOW FAR
EAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM ARE MUCH
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...THE
23.12Z GFS/NAM BOTH ARE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS
LOW...BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN
AND PROVIDES LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THESE AREAS AND FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. HAVE EXPANDED
FROST ADVISORY INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.
NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF AREA AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS AS TOO HOW FAR EAST SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT MOVES...
WILL DETERMINE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA TO TRACK INTO FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 925-850MB
LAYER AND DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LESS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY.
THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 200-500
J/KG MAINLY WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY WEST OF
FORECAST AREA AND NO SURFACE BASE CAPE OVER FORECAST AREA. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
FLATTENING RIDGE AND PUSHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE AREA...
WHEREAS THE 23.12Z ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND PLACES SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BASED ON THESE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 23.12Z MODELS. FOR
NOW... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ALSO WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES...AS
THE 23.12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THAN THE ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXCEPT FOR
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
OUT.
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....DTJ
LONG TERM......DTJ
AVIATION.......SHEA
000
FXUS63 KGRB 231941
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...TAKING WITH IT ANY LEFT OVER
RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT THE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING UP STARTING
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHC FOR SIG PRECIP PROBABLY WONT ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIDNT NEED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS
ALL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WISCONSIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
BEING FILTERED IN FROM CANADA...WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...SO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES. CURRENT FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE GROWING COMMUNITY AND SEEM
REASONABLE. DEBATED ADDING MARATHON COUNTY TO THE FREEZE WARNING
AS TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 32 DEGREES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPOTS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. WILL ADD LOCALIZED FREEZE WORDING TO THE FROST ADVISORY THAT
IS CURRENT IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA INSTEAD.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE
SAW TODAY. STILL HAD TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THEN A WARMUP AND TSTM POTENTIAL INTO MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH A WEAK S/W TROF AND A JET STREAK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL WI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME FROST POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MIN
TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON THE ECMWF...WHICH IS REGARDED AS THE BEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LARGE CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND SUPPORTS A COMPLETELY DRY FCST. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY HPC...THE LATEST RUN OF THE UKMET...AND EVEN A FEW OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER GFS/GEFS/GEM
MODELS...HAVE KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SW PART OF
THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT...AND THE ECMWF SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30-40 KTS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......WOLF
SHORT TERM.....WOLF
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......WOLF
000
FXUS63 KARX 231755
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN CONTINUES TO CLEAR SKIES OUT WITH MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS. BEST PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXCEPT FOR
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT...QUIET WEATHER ON TAP. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
OUT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....SHEA
000
FXUS63 KGRB 231704
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.
SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.
THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......WOLF
000
FXUS63 KMKX 231557
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED ACRS SC WI. SE WI WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS
LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING TODAY. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HIGHEST
WINDS AT EASTERN TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS
TONIGHT EASING THE WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKIES OFF. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KARX 231121
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTHEAST
HAVING CLEARED KRST ALREADY. THEY WILL BE PAST KLSE SHORTLY AS
WELL...BUT COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD AROUND
12Z...BUT THIS WILL BE TOO SHORT TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR AND WILL
JUST CARRY A SCATTERED DECK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE GRADIENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE INCOMING HIGH WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT BOTH SITES. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
RELAX THE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230933
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
INCLUDED MARINE SECTION
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230849
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPR PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND WL
REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE WL
BE UPR LOW OVER THE PAC NW. DOWNSTREAM...UPR TROF NOW CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES RGN WL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTG E NEXT WEEK. A SHARP/SOMEWHAT BLOCK UPR
RIDGE WL PERSIST BTWN THE 2 TROFS...AND EXTEND FM THE PLAINS NWD
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
NWLY UPR FLOW DOWN THE PLAINS RIDGE AND INTO THE ERN TROF WL BRING
A SURGE OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR SWD...RESULTING IN MUCH BLO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE START OF THE FCST PERIOD. BUT TEMPS SHOULD TREND
UPWARD...AND BE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK. THE NEXT CHC
FOR SIG PCPN PROBABLY WON/T COME UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
RENMANTS OF PCPN BAND IN UPR DEFORMATION ZONE WEAKENING AS THEY
SWING BACK SE ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. PCPN SHOULD EXIT
THE E THIS MORNING. CLDS WL LINGER FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER THE
PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE WORKING SEWD ACRS
MN/LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IT SHOULD BEING OVERSPREADING THE FCST AREA
ARND DAYBREAK. NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A RATHER SOLID-LOOKING SC
DECK WAS THAT WAS SURGING SWWD FM SE ONTARIO. BUT STG SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA IN THE WAKE OF NRN SHRTWV THAT WAS
DIGGING SWD AND PHASING WITH UPR TROF CROSSING THE RGN. SO EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS THE AREA. DESPITE THAT...RATHER STRONG N
WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS 10-15F DEG BLO NORMAL.
SFC HIGH WL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...COOL DRY
AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLY
COLD LEVELS. WENT AOB GUID FOR MINS MOST AREAS. WL UPGRADE THE
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA. SOME CONCERN WE COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WIND IN THE
FAR E TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT AND PREVENT FROST. BUT GIVEN HOW
LATE WE ARE INTO THE SPRING...DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND POST ADVSIORY EVEN WHERE FROST ISN/T A CERTAINTY. WL
DETAIL THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NPW PRODUCT.
THE WARMING TREND WL START FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE E.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WL BE AN ELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH...WINDS WL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND MOST GUID
MAXES SEEMED TOO COOL...ESP OVER E-C WI.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE RIDGE.
NEW ECMWF DOES PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THINK THIS IS
OVERDONE. THINKING THERE WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING
OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THE GFS/WRF
HAVE BEEN THE MOST INCONSISTENT IF PRECIPITATION WOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA. REALLY LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE
MOST CONSISTENT AND THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS FOLLOWED THIS TREND.
THINK MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY. DID KEEP A
TOKEN 20 POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST JUST IN CASE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLIP INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY WENT WITH
SHOWERS AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEADING INTO A DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT...BUT THINK MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY
COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.
BASED ON SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A MERRILL TO MARINETTE LINE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE TOWARDS IRON MOUNTAIN AREA
WITH READINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARDS TOMAHAWK AND MERRILL. MIN
TEMPERATURES ON MEMORIAL DAY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
FORECASTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
ONCE LOW CLDS EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230829
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON...
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KARX 230758
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FORECAST FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CLEARING TREND
TODAY...COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH FROST POTENTIAL...AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PESKY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY
MOVED TO NEAR CHICAGO...AND IS PULLING AWAY. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
SHOWS THE LIGHT RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE AND DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
THE CLOUDS CLEARING LINE MOVING IN AS WELL.
FIRST CONCERN IS THE CLEARING TREND OF BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM WHAT THE MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING...DECREASING MOISTURE. TREND IS FOR MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY ONCE THIS MOVES OUT. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT CONCERN IS THE CHILLY TEMPS
TONIGHT. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING...ANTICIPATE THE MERCURY WILL DROP OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE
30S. MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT THE TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER
30S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S. THESE COLD TEMPS AND ALL OF THE
RECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED FROST TONIGHT WILL BE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...AND HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS. FROST WILL BE PATCHY ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION SETTLES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRAVEL INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A CONTINUED FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH TOWARD OUR AREA THANKS TO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.
AND EACH DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS AND TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE SUPPLY...
LEADING TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
BLOCKED AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WOBBLES AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT OUT
OF IT...SOME HEADING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND OTHERS COME AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE AND HEAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND SD/IA/IL...MOVING NORTH
AND SOUTH AS EACH SUCCESSIVE WAVE EJECTS THROUGH. THIS SETUP WILL
PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM. MODELS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH TIME...AND IT WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACT TIMING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL BE
THERE NEARLY EVERY DAY...AT LEAST FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEAR TERM WITH WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END ALONG WITH THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOWN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND IS RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH. WHERE
THE RAIN ENDS IS WHERE THE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITH SKIES COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 6Z THOUGH WINDS WILL
STAY UP IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
258 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
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