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000
FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION
AND WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE WESTERN CWA...TRIMMING IT BACK
BY A TIER OF COUNTIES.  WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS
AT MOST PLACES ARE AOA 1 MILE.  THERE IS SOME WEAK WIND FROM THE
WEST LIKELY KEEPING THINGS STIRRED UP ENOUGH. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW EVEN MORE AND MAY MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS ALWAYS A
TOUGH CALL...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. THE THINKING AMONG THE SURROUNDING OFFICES IS THAT THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY TODAY. EVEN IF THEY DO
CLEAR...THERE/S PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ALSO...ANY
CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... SPREADING MORE LOWER CLOUDS IN. THE SHORT
RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS WAA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT/S PERSISTENCE AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THEN ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AND
POSSIBLY SCOUR OUT WITH RESPECT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
EVEN MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COMPLETELY.  GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LOWER SUN ANGLE...THIS GETS
TOUGHER AND TOUGHER.  THE CURRENT TAFS...BEFORE 12Z...SHOW CLEARING
COMING IN...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP IT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE NEW
TAFS AT 12Z.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN BY EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FROM THIS AND THIS WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE LOWER CIGS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-056-
     062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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000
FXUS63 KARX 240825
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND CLOUDS THE INITIAL CONCERN TODAY...THEN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 07Z NEPHANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
AND DENSE FOG SHROUDING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS THANKS TO THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL PASS THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUGGESTED BY
MODELS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. PLENTY OF CHALLENGES TO CONTEND WITH.

FIRST...LOCAL STUDIES AND USE OF GOES-R CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT.
COMBINE THAT WITH THE ADDED WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...AS WELL AS MORE CLOUD COVER ALOFT TO LIMIT THE INFLUX
OF SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX AND ERODE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...
OUR FEELING IS THAT THE AREA WILL STAY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. DO
ANTICIPATE THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND THE 10 AM EXPIRATION TIME IN SOME
AREAS.

WITH SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...WEAK Q-G SIGNAL SEEN IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. WHILE THE FORCING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH
THAT WARRANTS INCLUSION OF LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. THANKS
FOR THE COORDINATION MKX/DVN/DMX.

FOR TONIGHT...DO ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. FEEL THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AREAS
OF DENSE FOG...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON POTENTIAL BASED ON WHAT
TRANSPIRES WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD/FOG/RAIN TODAY.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SURPRESSED TODAY THANKS TO ALL OF THE
ABOVE...SO HAVE UNDERCUT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND EVEN GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. THUS A DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CRANK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SASK/MT REGION.
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD AND SOME SHOWERS. SOME QUESTION
ON HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES DO APPEAR TO LIE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...BUT SPREAD OUT THE RAIN CHANCES TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE EARLIER SATURATION. BRIEF DRY PERIOD AS
THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION WING MOVES NORTH. BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LIKELY TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

MAIN TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04



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000
FXUS63 KGRB 240821
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.  BEHIND
THE TROUGH...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWERING INVERSION WITH PLENTY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THIS INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND
ARE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA.  CURRENT VSBYS ARE LOCALLY
DENSE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MOST OF THE
VSBYS IN THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 1/2 SM.  VSBYS FARTHER EAST
ARE BEHAVING BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL TONIGHT.  IN GENERAL THOUGH...VSBYS SEEM TO BE SLOWLY FALLING
SO WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH CRITERIA IS
TECHNICALLY NOT BEING MET.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE AREA OF
CIRRUS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A
WEAK TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT IS INACTIVE AT
THE MOMENT.  FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG TRENDS FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.  CIRRUS...BROUGHT IN
BY A BEEFY 120KT JET STREAK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY SLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS/FOG
DESPITE ITS SHALLOW NATURE.  THINKING IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS/FOG TO MIX OUT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CIRRUS WILL BE THICKER THAN FARTHER
EAST.  ONCE IT BURNS OFF THOUGH...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF FILTERED
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE CIRRUS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT.  SATURATION DEPTH IS VERY
SHALLOW...SO THINK THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.  MIXING HEIGHTS
LOOK SHALLOW ONCE AGAIN SO USED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND CONS BLENDS
WHICH DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCT CLOUDS
WITH THIS TROUGH BUT THEN SHOULD SEE CLEARING ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS
OVERNIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL AGAIN GET
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.  BUT UNLIKE THIS
MORNING...WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BUT COULD LEAD TO THE
GENERATION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK.  CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IF THIS
WILL OCCUR AND WILL PASS CONCERNS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
SEND A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST WHERE THE AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD.  THOUGH IT
WILL BE WINDY...TEMPS SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH WITH SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.
MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE STATE...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. DECREASED MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER
TEMPS...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH
MEANS WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT INCREASING CLOUDS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WAA RAMPS UP
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. STILL SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.

THINGS START BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING PCPN TO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. KEPT
THE GENERAL CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND MODELS HAVE GENERAL LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AFTER THAT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS WOULD HAVE SPOTTY LIGHT
PCPN CONTINUING ON MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AFTER THE DAY ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS FCST AS IT SEEMED TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS. IN ADDITION... THE 00Z ECMWF
PICKED UP ON THE FASTER MODEL TRENDS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED ON MANY
OF THE OTHER MODELS. EITHER WAY...PCPN SHOULD INTENSIFY STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES. IN ADDITION...KEPT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FCST AS SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE
GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY IS SWEPT
AWAY WITH THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018-030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ALLEN
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 240439
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG HAS SETTLED IN AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE
VISIBILITY HAS YET TO COME DOWN TO IFR AT KLSE AS THE VALLEY SEEMS
TO BE PROTECTING IT SOME...AS IT IS AT OTHER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TREND IN THE RAP THIS
EVENING HAS NOT BEEN AS QUICK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG AS THE
AFTERNOON RUNS SO HAVE HELD ON TO THE LOW VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE MORNING WITH THE LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATING DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER THIS WILL PRODUCE A MVFR CEILING OR NOT. THE
24.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND HAS MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24.02Z RAP AND
24.00Z GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY WHILE THE 23.21Z SREF MEAN
REMAINS DRIER. MIXED SIGNALS IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WELL
WITH THE GFS BASED MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR
THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM BASED MOS HAS THE MVFR CEILINGS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240309
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240309
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MORE PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 240229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN COLLABORATION WITH UPSTREAM OFFICES...STARTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN NOW. 1/4 MILE
VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
PARTICULARLY OVER WOOD AND MARATHON COUNTIES. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA.

IF CLEARING ADVANCES EASTWARD A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM. ANTIGO HAS FALLEN TO 1/4 MILE SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-030-035-
036-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........ESB
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KMKX 240227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...PUSHED UP START TIME OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. ALSO
INCLUDED DANE AND GREEN COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS LATE
NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST WI.

STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DENSE FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
FRI MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...PUSHED UP START TIME OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. ALSO
INCLUDED DANE AND GREEN COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS LATE
NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST WI.

STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DENSE FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
FRI MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 240222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 240222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THUS...PLAN TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY UP TO THE
CURRENT TIME. SHOULD BE SLOW GOING FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
706 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SCT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA BY 03Z. HOWEVER
IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE. AS SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 232302
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WHILE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KRST...THE BACK EDGE HAS YET
TO REACH KLSE. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS...KLSE MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 02Z OR SO AND EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CLEARING ARRIVES.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT...IT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM
THE RAIN AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES REDEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES BY 06Z AND THEN GO DOWN TO IFR BY 08Z WITH A VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/4SM. THE 23.20Z RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE AT KRST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS DRYING ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS TO BREAK UP THE FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER KLSE UNTIL MID MORNING SO HAVE
MAINTAINED THE IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 15Z. BOTH SITES THEN GO TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 23.18Z NAM
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A ZONE OF 1-3
UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. IT RAPIDLY
INCREASES THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...BUT DOES SO WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THE 23.12Z GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE AND FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 232056
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

.FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

.WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-057-062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231948
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
248 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXIT EARLY EVENING. MAIN
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO SCOUR OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT MAY BE EXPANDED
EAST IF CLEARING OCCURS MORE QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES...SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL WISC.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE...SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE 12Z NAM ONCE AGAIN
BROUGHT QPF INTO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WAS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH IT THIS TIME. OTHER MODELS WERE STILL NOT SHOWING
IT SO DID NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND AN
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS ON BUFKIT
INDICATED SOME ELEVATED CAPE SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
REGION. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GOOD BEYOND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT DID NOT MENTION THUNDER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018-
030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KARX 231945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE STARTING
AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG. IFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING
OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL
TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT
BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 231945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI
MORNING...TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS THRU THE PERIOD.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD THE BAND OF SHRA CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE WEST EDGE NEAR A KMDZ-KVOK-KOVS LINE. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE TROUGH WAS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE/
IFR CLOUD DECKS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 40S IN THE SHRA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...TO THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S IN THE SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHWEST MN.

23.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EVEN GFS WITH ITS SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FROM THE WEST TO WORK THRU THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION LATE
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A SHORTWAVE/TOUGH
TO DROP TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND FOR TONIGHT THRU
FRI NIGHT GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. SHORT
TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...POST TROUGH DECREASE OF CLOUDS/CLEARING EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING/RISING HGTS
BUILD IN. RAIN/CLOUDS TODAY KEEPING T/TD SPREADS ON THE LOW SIDE
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PLUS THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FCST AREA SETS THE STAGE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL AMONG SREF
MEMBERS FOR VSBYS BELOW 1SM OVER THE EAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
CENTERED ON 12Z FRI MORNING. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED WITH DENSE FOG
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN...EASTERN SD/NEB...WESTERN IA THIS MORNING...
UPON COORD WITH NEIGHBORS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA FROM 06Z-15Z FRI.

MODEST ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SFC-700MB TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WHILE THE MAIN 925-
850MB MOISTURE INCREASE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. NAM INSISTS ON PRODUCING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTH/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
THIS LOOKS OVERDONE DUE TO 1/ THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE 2/
MOISTURE IS UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND 3/ THE SHORTWAVE IS
WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY -DZ BUT MOISTURE LOOKS EVEN TOO SHALLOW FOR THIS AND LEFT
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES. MIXED
925MB TEMPS FRI AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S-LOW
70S...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL LEAVE
FRI HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FRI EVENING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THE
LK SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE. 925MB TEMPS PEAK IN THE +13C TO +18C RANGE
AROUND 06Z SAT WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND 12Z SAT. FRONT COMES THRU DRY FRI NIGHT AS 925-700MB LAYER
IS DRY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING FRI NIGHT BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...FRI NIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE
MILD FOR LATE OCT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

23.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SAT THRU SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SAT THEN HGTS OVER THE
REGION SLOWLY RISE LATER SAT THRU SUN. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AT 00Z MON AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE OVER THE ROCKIES. TREND AT 00Z MON FAVORS
SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY 12Z MON AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. FCST CONFIDENCE
FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT IS ON THE GOOD SIDE.

SAT THRU SUN DOMINATED BY CAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES SAT BUT 925MB TEMPS IN +9C TO +13C AT 00Z SUN. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...SAT HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S
EVEN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. 925MB WINDS IN THE 25KT RANGE SAT
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO 900MB SAT AFTERNOON...FOR
BRISK/BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS DECOUPLE AND UNDER CLEAR SKIES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING/LARGE DIURNAL SWING EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUN WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE
FCST AREA LATE SUN. INITIALLY A VERY DRY SFC-500MB AIRMASS TO
MOISTEN UP. THE MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z MON. LEFT
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY YET NEED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LEAD
ROUND OF STRONGER/DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH/LOW
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE PLAINS TO BE LIFTING ACROSS IA SUN
NIGHT...PROVIDING AN ADDED FOCUS/ISENTROPIC LIFTING MECHANISM
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. 250-500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE PROGGED IN THE
AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT. CONSENSUS RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD SUN NIGHT...AND
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF TSRA. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MON/MON
NIGHT...SHRA CHANCES TUE/TUE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z/23.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT MON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. REASONABLE AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS TUE AS THE TROUGH/MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. TREND MON/TUE FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
ECMWF/GFS ON WED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
NOAM AND SOME FORM OF RIDGING OVER THE US/CAN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES
BY THU...MAINLY WITH PROGRESSIVENESS OF A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT DAY 7. 23.12Z ECMWF/GFS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THU THAN THEIR 23.00Z RUNS WERE. ECMWF OFFERS THE
BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED/THU. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO
GOOD MON-WED THEN AVERAGE ON THU.

MOIST AIRMASS WITH UP TO 250-500 J/KG MUCAPE PROGGED OVER THE AREA
MON/MON NIGHT. THIS AHEAD THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION. PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW/STRONGER FORCING LIFTING
TOWARD/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT THE DAY 4 TIME-FRAME BUT THE 20-
50 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS QUITE
REASONABLE FOR NOW. BY TUE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE SFC-700MB LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/FORCING TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES OUT IN DAY 5 BUT 25-50 PERCENT
SHRA CHANCES PER THE CONSENSUS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SFC THRU MID LEVEL
SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT TUE NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING -SHRA CHANCES.
COOLER AIRMASS/WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WED. TIMING DIFFERENCES BY THU
IMPACT POTENTIAL -SHRA CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA.
GIVEN LESSER CONFIDENCE OUT ON DAY 7...STAYED WITH THE  MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN ALL THE LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN
DAYS 4-7...THE BLEND OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS
FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLSE STARTING
AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN FOG. IFR
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING
OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL
TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT
BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 231802
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLSE STARTING AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN
FOG. IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE MIXING OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 231802
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND BR WILL PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS  GIVING WAY TO VFR. A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KLSE STARTING AROUND 10Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/4 MILE IN
FOG. IFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED AT KRST. WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE MIXING OVER KRST AND HELP TO LIMIT THE FOG. HOWEVER...WITH
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM AROUND 9Z. CONDITIONS  WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z TOMORROW AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MIXING INCREASES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231726
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

RAIN MOVING ACROSS STATE AND WILL EXIT WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 19Z IN CENTRAL WISC...AND OUT OF EASTERN WISC BY ABOUT
01Z. CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT BEHIND THE RAIN
AREA ALONG WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OR EXPAND TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KMKX 231613 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING THE SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL HANG ON IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THAT AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING IN THE EAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IN TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 231137
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SEVERAL AVIATION CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH AND THEN CLEARS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A VARIETY
OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS HELPING TO PUSH
AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. BULK OF RAIN IS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35 AND MOVING EAST. VFR CEILINGS EXTEND FROM EASTERN
IOWA UP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR AS YOU
MOVE WEST...CLOSER TO FRONT. IN FACT LIFR CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL
EXIST TO THE WEST. BIG QUESTION HOW LOW WILL CONDITIONS GET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SO WILL STICK WITH MVFR...BORDERING ON IFR.

AS WAVE MOVES EAST...CLEARING SHOULD ALSO ADVECT IN SO EXPECT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EVENING. WITH FRONT WASHING OUT AND GRADIENT
SLACKENING TONIGHT...FOG COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN. UNSURE ON
EXTENT SINCE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
BUT FURTHER EAST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR...HIGHER FOG
RISK EXISTS. LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG BUT DETAILS WILL BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231122
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BRING A
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING EASTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
DURING THE EVENING...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.  THE FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230908
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FEATURES...A CHANNEL OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM IRONWOOD TO LA CROSSE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN BAND OF BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST OVER
EASTERN MINNESOTA.  CLEAR SKIES RESUME BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS.  THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TIMING OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A DECAYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE STATE.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...WILL SEE DECENT MOISTURE WITHIN THE THETAE AXIS SPREAD EAST
WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF AN INCH.  BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE ONLY
MODEST SO ALTHOUGH MOST PLACES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN...AMOUNTS SHOULD
ONLY REACH A TENTH OR TWO.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY SLOWER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP AREAS ALONG THE BAY AND FOX VALLEY DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BETWEEN
18-21Z.  TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES...BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SINCE RAIN
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THINK RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE LAKE SHORE BY 03Z.  PLENTY OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE INVERSION.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BELOW THIS INVERSION AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...VISIBILITIES ARE FALLING RIGHT
BEHIND THE CLOUD LINE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS SUPPORTS
A DECENT SETUP FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST
EVERYWHERE.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

FRIDAY...ONCE ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE THERE...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MILDER THAN USUAL WEATHER EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN IS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF
FROM CANADA. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A WARM FRONT FORMS AND MOVES NORTH FROM
ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
A BIG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 230855
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR TODAY...A THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER AS IT DOES...THE
900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THIS...KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
DRY IT OUT QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
DRY AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE TO BE
VISIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THESE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT IN TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THE 23.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WAVE AND GENERATES LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GEM GENERATES RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE SO THEY ARE DRY. SINCE THE
ECMWF USUALLY PERFORMS THE BEST IN THIS TIME FRAME...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY.

ON SATURDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6 TO 8C IN THE WAKE OF A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT. THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
EACH PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN...THUS LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE MORE OF DEGREES...AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH YET. IN
ADDITION TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEW POINT MIX DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
FALL INTO 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MOS TYPICALLY DOES NOT DO
WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS...WENT WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SERIES OF NEGATIVE TILTED SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND IN THE ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT. PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MB
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND GEM
GENERATE SHOWERS AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN IT CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY
AND INTRODUCES SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH
THIS BEING THE FIRST TIME THAT IT HAS SHOWED KEPT SUNDAY AFTERNOONDRY
AND THEN KEPT THE SHOWER CHANCES GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ALSO WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RUNNING BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG...KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 1 TO 7 KM SHEAR CLIMBS
ABOVE 50 KNOTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH THESE STORMS
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTERS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 230441
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS
GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST WITH
THE FRONT HAVE BECOME SCATTERED...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED QUITE
NICELY BY THE HRRR THIS EVENING. THE 23.02Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING OF
MOVING THE SHOWERS STEADILY EAST BUT KEEPING THEM SCATTERED AS
OPPOSED TO THE 23.00Z NAM WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST ON AN
INCREASING COVERAGE TREND DESPITE IT SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE HRRR AND HAVE GONE WITH SOME SHOWERS BUT FOR THE MOST
PART NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WHAT THE CEILINGS WILL DO IS ANOTHER CONCERN. VFR CEILINGS ARE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MIXED IN.
ALL THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THESE WILL GO DOWN TO IFR
OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS IF THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWERS
AROUND TO HELP MOISTURE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO MVFR. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH ABOUT 08Z.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. SHOWERS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY...THEN EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO MVFR TOWARD MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DURING THE EVENING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF
FOG DURING THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KMKX 230222
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. ALSO WL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE EAST.

POSSIBLE A FEW -SHRA MAY AFFECT WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
WI. HOWEVER BEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. NO REASON TO ALTER THU
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT KENW AND KUES LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SFC DEWPTS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WI WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRA TO TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY. CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD DURING AND AFTER
-SHRA DUE TO MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 222310
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WAS MOVING EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN ARE
EITHER VFR OR MVFR. LOOKING AT THE 22.18Z NAM AND 22.12Z HI-RES
ARW...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE SHOWERS INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WITH THEM REACHING KRST AROUND 09Z AND KLSE
NEAR 11Z. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
CEILINGS WHEN THE SHOWERS COME IN AND WANTS TO TAKE BOTH SITES
DOWN TO IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LACK OF IFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HAPPENING AT
KRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE PAST
BOTH SITES BY 18Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 221950
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/THU...
TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MI WITH RIDGING TO AR. LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MAN WITH A TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH TO
THE KS/CO BORDER. THE HIGH WAS HOLDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WI/IL/EASTERN IA WHILE CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS MN/WESTERN IA
AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB. SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB.

22.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...EXCEPT GFS WITH ITS 3-5F HIGH BIAS
ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLUTIONS
TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH AXIS MOVES
INTO WESTERN IA/MN 12Z THU...INTO EASTERN WI BY 00Z FRI THEN INTO MI
AND OH VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. LATEST TIGHTER CONSENSUS FAVORS FASTER OF
THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT
THRU THU NIGHT. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE 500-300MB PV ADVECTION WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE EAST HALF THU MORNING.
THIS WITH MDT LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH/AHEAD OF THE SFC-700MB TROUGH...PW VALUES OF 1 TO 1.25
INCHES AND 85-100 PERCENT SATURATION IN THE 850-500MB LAYER.
PRESENT TIMING HAS THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS KRST AROUND 09Z... KLSE AROUND 12Z AND KVOK AROUND 15Z.
USED THIS TO TIME 85-95 PERCENT SHRA CHANCES EAST ACROSS THE FCST
AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK MUCAPE OF
UP TO 150 J/KG WHEN LIFTING 850MB PARCELS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDED AN ISOLATED -TSRA MENTION BETWEEN ROUGHLY
07Z-15Z WHEN THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST OF THE LIFT PASSES. MOST
PRECIP AMOUNTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH WEAKENING 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

WITH THE TREND TOWARD FASTER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AT AND ABOVE 925MB
BEHIND THE SFC-500MB TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE FCST AREA THU
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
CHANCE OF SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THU AFTERNOON. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC-500MB TROUGH/SHORTWAVE INTO MN/IA BY 12Z FRI...ANY
COOLING BEHIND THE THU MORNING TROUGH IS WEAK/SHORT LIVED. 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +12C TO +15C RANGE AT 12Z FRI...UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW/
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR
TONIGHT/THU THEN TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS FOR THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

22.12Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI/FRI NIGHT...AS
ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI AND A SECOND
STRONGER WAVE DROPS TOWARD/ACROSS LK SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT. TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THE FRI NIGHT WAVE. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS WAVE TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY EAST SAT AND FOR RIDGING/RISING HGTS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. WITH THE GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS THRU SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS
GOOD THIS CYCLE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRI HAS A MODEST SFC-700MB
TROUGH WITH IT. AHEAD OF THIS ROUGH IS A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE. FORCING/LIFT ALOFT IS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE
INCREASE IS PROGGED MAINLY IN THE 925-850MB LAYER. WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF -SHRA OUT OF THE GRIDS ON FRI BUT DID INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF FRI INTO FRI EVENING AS THE MOISTURE AXIS PASSES.
925MB TEMPS IN THE +13C TO +17C RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. FULLY REALIZED
THESE 925MB TEMPS WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRI. GIVEN THE LOWER STRATO-CU CLOUD POTENTIAL...TRENDED HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW. WAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR
FRI NIGHT SENDS A ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE/ DRYING AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI FRI NIGHT/SAT. WARMEST 925MB AIRMASS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOWS FRI NIGHT TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
SOME WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF/BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT/
SAT NIGHT CONTINUE DRY/QUIET AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 925MB
TEMPS STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE SAT AFTERNOON...FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT LOOK GOOD...
THOUGH DID RAISE FRI NIGHT LOWS DEGREE OR 2 ABOVE THESE VALUES.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE SUN INTO
TUE... TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

22.00Z AND 22.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY FOR
RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF STRONGER/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.
TREND SUN/MON LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH. MODELS HAVE THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE
TUE...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. STILL A BETTER/SLOW CONSENSUS THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS ON TUE. CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FLOW ACROSS
NOAM BY WED...WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE LOW SIDE BY DAY 7.
FCST CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE SUN/MON THEN BELOW AVERAGE BY WED.

HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SUN...SLIDING EAST OF
THE REGION SUN NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN/IA SUN
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI SUN NIGHT. INITIALLY A
RATHER DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUN...WITH MAINLY INCREASING
MID CLOUDS. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AN INCH OR MORE SUN NIGHT. THIS
WITH SOME MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500 J/KG IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS SUN
NIGHT...THEN MUCAPE OF 200 TO 500+ J/KG OVER THE AREA MON/MON NIGHT.
MOISTURE/LIFT CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...BUT
DIFFERENCE WITH TIMING/TRACK OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND STRONGER
FORCING BY MON...THEN WITH TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE TUE. DID ADD AN ISOLATED TSRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT GIVEN THE CAPE AND WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE REGION. LINGERING -SHRA CHANCE TUE WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE REGION. TUE NIGHT/WED SHOULD BE A DRY/
COOLER PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND RISING HGTS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST...HOWEVER MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF ONE
TROUGH EXITING AND THE NEXT ONE APPROACHING. WILL LEAVE THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS AS IS FOR TUE/WED.

SUN/MON CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD WITH 925MB
TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +11C RANGE AT 00Z MON AND +8C TO +15C RANGE AT
18Z MON...1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS/SHRA
LIKELY TO IMPACT HIGHS MON BUT BOTH SUN/MON SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS FOR
MON NIGHT/TUE... BUT TEMPS FOR TUE/WED LOOK TO ONLY TREND BACK
TOWARD LATE OCT NORMALS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN THRU WED HAS THIS WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS AT KRST AND
16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING
THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z.
THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221942
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......JKL








000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 221754
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 27 KTS
AT KRST AND 16 KTS AT KLSE. A MID CLOUD DECK...WITH BASES AROUND
6KFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS DECK. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING TO
AROUND 3500 FT...THEN FALLING THROUGH 9Z TO AROUND 800 FT. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AROUND 08Z
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT BY 12Z. THE IFR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221746
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

OUTSIDE OF SCT CU IN FAR EASTERN WISC...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN IFR CIGS
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 221513
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THEM INTO THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
BAND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. IF RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING RAISING THE CONCERN FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FROM KLSE
IS SHOWING AROUND 350 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 850 MB. IF THIS CAPE
IS REALIZED...WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KARX 221125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AT 3 AM...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THIS
HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS ALLOWED DENSE
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD A SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT MAY ALLOW SOME STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULTS...IN
MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND THERE WILL MODERATE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVERALL LIKE THE TIMING OF NMM AND
ARW...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THEM FOR
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ON THURSDAY...THE 22.00Z MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS RESULT
IN A RAPID DECREASE IN THE 900 TO 800 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A QUICK DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REALLY WELL IN THE ARW AND NMM...SO TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT CLOSER TO THEM. ALSO MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PROVIDES A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE AND STRONGER 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAN THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF. AS A RESULT...
IT GENERATES SHOWERS AND THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DRY. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE PERIOD DRY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB 2
TO 4C WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MIXING 875 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE
SURFACE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE 22.03Z SREF
THAN THE SUPER BLEND...SO TRENDED THEM MORE TOWARD THE LATTER.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 150 KNOT
200 MB JET ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE 21.12Z NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY SHOWED THAT A JET
THIS STRONG HAD A RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE IN EVERY 5 YEARS. THIS
RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE IS
A 6 TO 8C DROP ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND 4 TO 6C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE 6 TO 8C INTO THE 10C TO 14C
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 1.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE SUPER BLEND LOOKS TOO COLD...SO RAISED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND ECMWF.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE
TRACK OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF OR GEM. DUE
TO THIS...STAYED CLOSED TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH THIS MORNING TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT
KLSE BUT STILL SEEING SOME IN FAVORED SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VALLEYS
WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.

MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IS APPROACHING WAVE AND IMPACT ON CEILINGS
TONIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS A BAND OF HIGHER BASED STRATUS IN
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN SATURATION OCCURS WITH LIFT AND RAIN MOVES IN. RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT SOME GUIDANCE /22.00Z NAM
AND 22.03Z SREF SUGGESTS MVFR AND PERHAPS LIMITED IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING TROUGH PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR THAT DURING PEAK OF RAIN PERIODS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...SHEA




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221111
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST.  OUTSIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN STRATUS
AROUND CHICAGO...CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS WHERE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING.  AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...PRECIP CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TODAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...BUT VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST THROUGH THE COLUMN.
ALTHOUGH WILL SEE CIRRUS BEGIN TO INVADE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE.
THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TO START THE EVENING BUT
SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  MODELS INDICATE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME AND LEFT A SMALL
CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.  BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CALLS FOR A WARMER NIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 WEST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  A BAND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
PRECIP MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VARIOUS
MODELS MOVE THE PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION AT DIFFERENT TIMES (DUE TO
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE SPLITTING OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY)...SO THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO TIMING.  REGARDLESS...AS THE RAIN
MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE DAY.  WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING CONSEQUENTLY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE MOST IN EASTERN
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES AND ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO MICHIGAN. THE NAM
FORECASTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SYSTEM AND ARE DRY. LEFT OUT ANY PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW FORECAST BY MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SOME JET ENERGY MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. JET ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY.

AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER
WITH MODERATE AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS
TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL BE FALLING BETWEEN 5000-8000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LIGHT RAIN MAY
BE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC







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