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000
FXUS63 KGRB 251735
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1235 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Primary forecast issues today through sunday morning center on
precipitation trends and severe potential tonight as a cold front
slides over the state.

With high pressure drifting east of the area early this
morning, increasing waa to the west was producing areas of BKN040
clouds over Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. A few progs
develop light isolated convection with the advance of the waa and
increasing moisture. Will continue with the small chc mention
over North Central Wisconsin this morning and will monitor areas
to the west for any expansion southward. earlier HRRR runs attempt
to track light convection over North Central and Central
Wisconsin early this morning...while later runs have backed off on
light amounts.

After this potential morning convection...bufkit indicates capping
during the remainder of the morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggests this cap begins to erode
in the afternoon. As a result will continue with the ramp up
chance pops this afternoon over the west half of the forecast area.
Anticipate the brunt of convection to occur along and ahead of the
cold front which at 700 pm Saturday was over eastern Minnesota.
This front appears to move out ahead of the main upper low system
and slows down tonight before depart southeast Wisconsin Sunday.
With this scenario, best chance for convection over eastern
Wisconsin will likely be after midnight.

As far as severe potential, mu capes approaching 2500 J over the
western half of the state prior the cold front passage this
evening...then taper off a bit tonight...but still in the 800 to
1500 range. Best large scale lift with the upper jet appears to
be west of the area. Strongest mid level winds also progged to be
located over the northern plains. Heavy rainfall likely with
storms as pwats climb to around 2 inches along and ahead of the
front. Damaging winds with the heavy rainfall appear to be the
primary issue for the area later today into tonight. A few storms
over north central wisconsin may contain large hail late afternoon
and early evening.

Warm day expected today followed by a muggy night with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s. Warm start Sunday along with
subsidence mixing will provide a warm breezy day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Surface cyclonic flow and a mid level short wave will bring
increasing clouds to the area starting late Sunday night, and
there is a chance for some showers in northern Wisconsin on
Monday.

Surface high pressure should help to keep the area dry through the
middle of the week. Return flow, a cold front approaching from the
north, and a mid level short wave in northwest flow will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Thursday. Models
still had some timing differences with this so slight chance pops
have bled into Wednesday night and Thursday night as well.

Below normal daytime highs can be expected on Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of the departing cold front. After that, temperatures
should warm to near normal for Wednesday through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hi-end MVFR cigs across north-central WI early this afternoon
should rise to low-end VFR conditions for the rest of the daylight
hours. VFR conditions to then persist into early evening over all
of NE WI, however an advancing cold front will interact with an
unstable air mass over the region, to produce a line of showers
and thunderstorms. This area of precipitation is expected to move
across central WI during the mid to late evening hours, and
eastern WI after midnight. Cigs and vsbys are expected to drop
into the MVFR range accompanying the frontal passage. Have added
LLWS to all TAF sites tonight as gusty S-SW winds to occur just
off the surface ahead of the cold front. Expect a gradual return
to VFR conditions from west to east Sunday morning as the cold
front departs and a wedge of drier air overspreads the region.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK



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000
FXUS63 KARX 251722
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At 3 AM, a 1020 mb high was centered over southeast Lower
Michigan. Meanwhile a cold front was located over the central
Dakotas and the Nebraska panhandle. A warm front extended
southeast from the cold front across southeast South Dakota and
western Iowa. South and southeast winds ahead of this front have
kept the temperatures in the Upper Mississippi River valley in
the 65 to 70 degree range early this afternoon.

For this morning and early afternoon, the models show that the
warm front will move east across the forecast area. While the CR
NAM Nest, NAM12, and NSSL WRF have this front moving through the
area dry, the NMM, ARW, and NMM shows scattered showers and
storms moving east across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

In the wake of this front, the 925 mb temperatures climb up to
26C. This is 5C warmer than Friday afternoon. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface results in the temperatures climbing
into the upper 80s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower 90s
across the remainder of the area. The combination of these
temperatures and dew points in the lower 70s will result in
afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees.

During the mid- to late evening, it still looks like scattered
supercells will develop across northeast, east-central, and
central Minnesota. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
With the best shear being in the 0-3 km layer and the cold front,
expect that these will evolve into a line of strong to severe
storms. This line will likely move through southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa between 6 PM and 10 PM...and western Wisconsin
between 9 PM and 2 AM. As these storms move east, the instability
and shear will be decreasing. As a result, the threat for severe
weather will gradually decrease as they move east across the
forecast area. The main severe weather threat in our area will
likely be damaging winds, but there may still be an isolated
tornado threat in parts of southeast Minnesota and west-central
and north-central Wisconsin. As far as hail, soundings continue to
show a rather skinny CAPE profile; thus, only anticipating hail
maybe up to quarters.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday, the 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures only cool about 2C.
In addition, we will mix up to 775 mb which is about 100 mb deeper
than this afternoon. This will allow high temperatures to top out
in the mid to upper 80s. With the soundings showing quite a bit of
dry air aloft, the mixed down tool suggests that the afternoon
dew points could potentially range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.
This would be in the same range as the dew points currently over
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since this would be a large
change from the current forecast, opted to drop them from the
upper 50s to the lower 50s for now. This would lower the
afternoon relative humidities into the 25 to 30 percent range.

From Monday afternoon into Monday night, a much stronger Canadian
cold front will move south through the region. This would drop the
925 mb and 850 mb temperatures anywhere from 12 to 18C colder than
what they were on Sunday afternoon. With much of the forcing and
moisture transport being located across northern Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, we are still expecting that this front will
move through much of the region dry. At this time, only north-
central Wisconsin has a slight chance of showers.

In the wake of this cold front, high temperatures will be below-
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The high temperatures will
be in the lower and mid-70s on Tuesday and in the mid- to upper
70s on Wednesday.

Small chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
latter part of the week as short wave troughs move through the
area from Wednesday night into Thursday and from Friday afternoon
into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Good VFR conditions expected this afternoon in a well mixed airmass
ahead of an approaching cold front. Tighter gradient ahead of the
front and the deeper mixing resulting in south winds 14-18kt g22-
26kt thru the afternoon hours. Cold front approaches, then passes
this evening, roughly around 03Z at KRSt and 06Z at KLSE. This is a
bit slower than earlier expected. A band of SHRA/TSRA are expected
to accompany the front across the area. cigs/ vsbys looking to be
MVFR, locally IFR, in TSRA and heavier SHRA with the frontal
passage. Continued the trend of a tempo MVFR period with passage of
the front/TSRA with it, but delayed it an hour or 2 from the
previous TAF set. Once the front goes by a drier airmass as
southwest to west winds to spread across the TAF sites. Good VFR
conditions then expected for the late night hours and on Sunday with
this drier airmass spreading in.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RRS



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000
FXUS63 KMKX 251501 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

There could be a couple showers or storms in the west this
afternoon on the leading edge of deeper moisture surge. Latest
HRRR and NAMNest keep it dry into the evening though, so not a lot
of confidence with the afternoon precip chances. Still looks like
bulk of showers/storms will hold off until after midnight.

No updates expected to the temps for the afternoon, as most places
away from Lake Michigan are still expected to approach or reach 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will persist for much of the time through Sunday.
Showers and storms will mainly hold off until after midnight
tonight. Could see some lower visibilities at times with
moderate/heavy rainfall. Soundings and MOS also show a brief
period of lower ceilings possible as the trough moves through
tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are then likely for the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...

South winds should become more southeast, and could approach small
craft advisory conditions this afternoon, with a few gusts in the
lower 20kt range. Thunderstorms are likely tonight with the passage
of a weak cold front. Winds will turn west on Sunday and remain
below small craft advisory levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure is sliding east as a trough of low pressure/cold
front approach from the northwest. 925 mb temps climb into the
mid 20s this afternoon, and should translate into highs pushing
near 90 in a few spots. The lake counties will see a bit of
onshore flow, so a tad cooler there, especially up toward
Sheboygan. Dew points will definitely be on the rise, so look for
very muggy conditions by afternoon.

There is some warm advection and lift this afternoon, but the cap
looks formidable and should hold, especially from Madison on east.
There is a better chance that we could see some early convection
with with the WAA this afternoon west of Madison, so will move up
the chances slightly there. Some of the high res models are very
bullish with some convection across the CWA this afternoon, but
this looks to be a symptom of exaggerated dew points more than
anything.

For tonight, the front will be pushing in later in the evening.
Convection likely will lose some steam as it pushes in, as the
better jet and forcing remain north of the area. SPC has the area
in a marginal risk, with the slight risk just northwest of the
CWA. Can`t argue with that. A warm and muggy night for sure.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models take the cold front eastward through the area on Sunday,
exiting by later in the afternoon. Low level frontogenesis is
stronger on the NAM than the GFS. Elongated 500 mb vorticity
maximum pushes through as well in the morning, exiting in the
afternoon.

Adjusted area forecast soundings indicate some weakening tall
skinny mean layer CAPE in the morning, then stabilizing by middle
to late afternoon. Best shot at lingering showers and storms would
be in the morning, then decreasing in the afternoon. Continued
this trend with POPs for Sunday.

Kept the warm temperatures for Sunday as well, despite some
expected cloud cover with any lingering showers and storms. 925 mb
temperature fields from models support upper 80s in most of the
area. These values may be several degrees too warm, if the clouds
are more widespread than forecast.

Models show another cold front sliding southeast through the area
Monday morning, with a decent shot of cold air advection behind
it into Monday night. A 500 mb shortwave trough with several
embedded vorticity maxima push southeast through the area as well.

Adjusted area forecast soundings are rather dry during this time,
and may just see some cumulus clouds develop Monday and linger
into Monday night. Kept dry forecast going for now. Temperatures
should drop to more seasonable values Monday into Monday night,
with lower dew points bringing less humid conditions.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF/GFS models generally show high pressure sliding southward
from Minnesota into Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. The ECMWF is
slower than the GFS and brings a 500 mb shortwave trough through
the area Tuesday, bringing light QPF to the area. The quicker GFS
is dry Tuesday. They then show dry conditions into Wednesday. For
now, used consensus blend of POPs and kept the dry forecast going
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures should be a little below
seasonal normals, with onshore winds bringing cooler highs near
the lake each day.

The GFS is quicker than the ECMWF with the next cold frontal
passage later in the week. The GFS brings it through the area
Thursday, with the ECMWF Thursday night. Not much in the way of
500 mb support with the front. More differences develop on Friday,
as the front stalls or moves back north as a warm front. Kept
consensus blend of POPs for Wednesday night into Friday for now.
Temperatures should be around seasonal normals.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. A trough of
low pressure will move across the area tonight, likely bringing a
round of showers and thunderstorms. The activity should reach KMSN
around 04-05z Sunday and KMKE/KUES/KENW after about 08-09z. The
showers and storms will be weakening by the time they reach the
southeast. There could be brief MVFR conditions with any heavier
showers/storms. Winds will be southerly today, shifting to
westerly in the wake of the front late tonight and early Sunday
morning.

MARINE...

Southerly winds could approach small craft advisory conditions
this afternoon, with a few gusts in the lower 20kt range.
Thunderstorms are likely tonight with the passage of a trough of
low pressure. Winds will turn westerly on Sunday, and remain
below small craft advisory levels.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Hentz
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Wood




000
FXUS63 KARX 251219
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
719 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At 3 AM, a 1020 mb high was centered over southeast Lower
Michigan. Meanwhile a cold front was located over the central
Dakotas and the Nebraska panhandle. A warm front extended
southeast from the cold front across southeast South Dakota and
western Iowa. South and southeast winds ahead of this front have
kept the temperatures in the Upper Mississippi River valley in
the 65 to 70 degree range early this afternoon.

For this morning and early afternoon, the models show that the
warm front will move east across the forecast area. While the CR
NAM Nest, NAM12, and NSSL WRF have this front moving through the
area dry, the NMM, ARW, and NMM shows scattered showers and
storms moving east across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

In the wake of this front, the 925 mb temperatures climb up to
26C. This is 5C warmer than Friday afternoon. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface results in the temperatures climbing
into the upper 80s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower 90s
across the remainder of the area. The combination of these
temperatures and dew points in the lower 70s will result in
afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees.

During the mid- to late evening, it still looks like scattered
supercells will develop across northeast, east-central, and
central Minnesota. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
With the best shear being in the 0-3 km layer and the cold front,
expect that these will evolve into a line of strong to severe
storms. This line will likely move through southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa between 6 PM and 10 PM...and western Wisconsin
between 9 PM and 2 AM. As these storms move east, the instability
and shear will be decreasing. As a result, the threat for severe
weather will gradually decrease as they move east across the
forecast area. The main severe weather threat in our area will
likely be damaging winds, but there may still be an isolated
tornado threat in parts of southeast Minnesota and west-central
and north-central Wisconsin. As far as hail, soundings continue to
show a rather skinny CAPE profile; thus, only anticipating hail
maybe up to quarters.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday, the 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures only cool about 2C.
In addition, we will mix up to 775 mb which is about 100 mb deeper
than this afternoon. This will allow high temperatures to top out
in the mid to upper 80s. With the soundings showing quite a bit of
dry air aloft, the mixed down tool suggests that the afternoon
dew points could potentially range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.
This would be in the same range as the dew points currently over
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since this would be a large
change from the current forecast, opted to drop them from the
upper 50s to the lower 50s for now. This would lower the
afternoon relative humidities into the 25 to 30 percent range.

From Monday afternoon into Monday night, a much stronger Canadian
cold front will move south through the region. This would drop the
925 mb and 850 mb temperatures anywhere from 12 to 18C colder than
what they were on Sunday afternoon. With much of the forcing and
moisture transport being located across northern Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, we are still expecting that this front will
move through much of the region dry. At this time, only north-
central Wisconsin has a slight chance of showers.

In the wake of this cold front, high temperatures will be below-
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The high temperatures will
be in the lower and mid-70s on Tuesday and in the mid- to upper
70s on Wednesday.

Small chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
latter part of the week as short wave troughs move through the
area from Wednesday night into Thursday and from Friday afternoon
into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A couple of issues for aviation today. First is warm advection and
instability cloud this morning. Manifisted only as cloud for the
TAF locations, but did manage to generate light showers east of
the Mississippi River. Second is the convective potential later
today. Strong cold front expected to sweep through as we approach
sunset, and this should come through as an organized squall line
of thunderstorms, complete with a wind shift to the west-northwest
and gusty winds up around the 35-40 kt range. Could be higher,
depending on where the strongest storms go. But complicating
things...could be enough instability ahead of the main line for
some scattered light showers or even convection. Many of the short
range model solutions are moving to this solution. At this time,
did not include in the TAF forecasts, but if this trend continues
we may have to add some mention prior to the main event. After the
front passes, rain will end, wind will become northwest and
decrease. Sunday could be a bit on the breezy side, but just
beyond this TAF period.



&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 251219
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
719 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At 3 AM, a 1020 mb high was centered over southeast Lower
Michigan. Meanwhile a cold front was located over the central
Dakotas and the Nebraska panhandle. A warm front extended
southeast from the cold front across southeast South Dakota and
western Iowa. South and southeast winds ahead of this front have
kept the temperatures in the Upper Mississippi River valley in
the 65 to 70 degree range early this afternoon.

For this morning and early afternoon, the models show that the
warm front will move east across the forecast area. While the CR
NAM Nest, NAM12, and NSSL WRF have this front moving through the
area dry, the NMM, ARW, and NMM shows scattered showers and
storms moving east across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

In the wake of this front, the 925 mb temperatures climb up to
26C. This is 5C warmer than Friday afternoon. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface results in the temperatures climbing
into the upper 80s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower 90s
across the remainder of the area. The combination of these
temperatures and dew points in the lower 70s will result in
afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees.

During the mid- to late evening, it still looks like scattered
supercells will develop across northeast, east-central, and
central Minnesota. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
With the best shear being in the 0-3 km layer and the cold front,
expect that these will evolve into a line of strong to severe
storms. This line will likely move through southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa between 6 PM and 10 PM...and western Wisconsin
between 9 PM and 2 AM. As these storms move east, the instability
and shear will be decreasing. As a result, the threat for severe
weather will gradually decrease as they move east across the
forecast area. The main severe weather threat in our area will
likely be damaging winds, but there may still be an isolated
tornado threat in parts of southeast Minnesota and west-central
and north-central Wisconsin. As far as hail, soundings continue to
show a rather skinny CAPE profile; thus, only anticipating hail
maybe up to quarters.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday, the 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures only cool about 2C.
In addition, we will mix up to 775 mb which is about 100 mb deeper
than this afternoon. This will allow high temperatures to top out
in the mid to upper 80s. With the soundings showing quite a bit of
dry air aloft, the mixed down tool suggests that the afternoon
dew points could potentially range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.
This would be in the same range as the dew points currently over
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since this would be a large
change from the current forecast, opted to drop them from the
upper 50s to the lower 50s for now. This would lower the
afternoon relative humidities into the 25 to 30 percent range.

From Monday afternoon into Monday night, a much stronger Canadian
cold front will move south through the region. This would drop the
925 mb and 850 mb temperatures anywhere from 12 to 18C colder than
what they were on Sunday afternoon. With much of the forcing and
moisture transport being located across northern Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, we are still expecting that this front will
move through much of the region dry. At this time, only north-
central Wisconsin has a slight chance of showers.

In the wake of this cold front, high temperatures will be below-
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The high temperatures will
be in the lower and mid-70s on Tuesday and in the mid- to upper
70s on Wednesday.

Small chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
latter part of the week as short wave troughs move through the
area from Wednesday night into Thursday and from Friday afternoon
into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A couple of issues for aviation today. First is warm advection and
instability cloud this morning. Manifisted only as cloud for the
TAF locations, but did manage to generate light showers east of
the Mississippi River. Second is the convective potential later
today. Strong cold front expected to sweep through as we approach
sunset, and this should come through as an organized squall line
of thunderstorms, complete with a wind shift to the west-northwest
and gusty winds up around the 35-40 kt range. Could be higher,
depending on where the strongest storms go. But complicating
things...could be enough instability ahead of the main line for
some scattered light showers or even convection. Many of the short
range model solutions are moving to this solution. At this time,
did not include in the TAF forecasts, but if this trend continues
we may have to add some mention prior to the main event. After the
front passes, rain will end, wind will become northwest and
decrease. Sunday could be a bit on the breezy side, but just
beyond this TAF period.



&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KGRB 251051
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
551 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Primary forecast issues today through sunday morning center on
precipitation trends and severe potential tonight as a cold front
slides over the state.

With high pressure drifting east of the area early this
morning, increasing waa to the west was producing areas of BKN040
clouds over Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. A few progs
develop light isolated convection with the advance of the waa and
increasing moisture. Will continue with the small chc mention
over North Central Wisconsin this morning and will monitor areas
to the west for any expansion southward. earlier HRRR runs attempt
to track light convection over North Central and Central
Wisconsin early this morning...while later runs have backed off on
light amounts.

After this potential morning convection...bufkit indicates capping
during the remainder of the morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggests this cap begins to erode
in the afternoon. As a result will continue with the ramp up
chance pops this afternoon over the west half of the forecast area.
Anticipate the brunt of convection to occur along and ahead of the
cold front which at 700 pm Saturday was over eastern Minnesota.
This front appears to move out ahead of the main upper low system
and slows down tonight before depart southeast Wisconsin Sunday.
With this scenario, best chance for convection over eastern
Wisconsin will likely be after midnight.

As far as severe potential, mu capes approaching 2500 J over the
western half of the state prior the cold front passage this
evening...then taper off a bit tonight...but still in the 800 to
1500 range. Best large scale lift with the upper jet appears to
be west of the area. Strongest mid level winds also progged to be
located over the northern plains. Heavy rainfall likely with
storms as pwats climb to around 2 inches along and ahead of the
front. Damaging winds with the heavy rainfall appear to be the
primary issue for the area later today into tonight. A few storms
over north central wisconsin may contain large hail late afternoon
and early evening.

Warm day expected today followed by a muggy night with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s. Warm start Sunday along with
subsidence mixing will provide a warm breezy day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Surface cyclonic flow and a mid level short wave will bring
increasing clouds to the area starting late Sunday night, and
there is a chance for some showers in northern Wisconsin on
Monday.

Surface high pressure should help to keep the area dry through the
middle of the week. Return flow, a cold front approaching from the
north, and a mid level short wave in northwest flow will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Thursday. Models
still had some timing differences with this so slight chance pops
have bled into Wednesday night and Thursday night as well.

Below normal daytime highs can be expected on Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of the departing cold front. After that, temperatures
should warm to near normal for Wednesday through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Vfr bkn040-050 clouds will drift into Central and North-Central
Wisconsin this morning as a warmer and more unstable air mass
works into the area. Still mainly vfr conditions expected for most
of the day until thunderstorms developing over minnesota and
western Wisconsin this afternoon begin to work into Central and
North-Central Wisconsin toward evening. A few of these storms may
contain damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The storms are
expected to reach eastern Wisconsin later tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 250855
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At 3 AM, a 1020 mb high was centered over southeast Lower
Michigan. Meanwhile a cold front was located over the central
Dakotas and the Nebraska panhandle. A warm front extended
southeast from the cold front across southeast South Dakota and
western Iowa. South and southeast winds ahead of this front have
kept the temperatures in the Upper Mississippi River valley in
the 65 to 70 degree range early this afternoon.

For this morning and early afternoon, the models show that the
warm front will move east across the forecast area. While the CR
NAM Nest, NAM12, and NSSL WRF have this front moving through the
area dry, the NMM, ARW, and NMM shows scattered showers and
storms moving east across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

In the wake of this front, the 925 mb temperatures climb up to
26C. This is 5C warmer than Friday afternoon. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface results in the temperatures climbing
into the upper 80s north of Interstate 94 and into the lower 90s
across the remainder of the area. The combination of these
temperatures and dew points in the lower 70s will result in
afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees.

During the mid- to late evening, it still looks like scattered
supercells will develop across northeast, east-central, and
central Minnesota. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.
With the best shear being in the 0-3 km layer and the cold front,
expect that these will evolve into a line of strong to severe
storms. This line will likely move through southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa between 6 PM and 10 PM...and western Wisconsin
between 9 PM and 2 AM. As these storms move east, the instability
and shear will be decreasing. As a result, the threat for severe
weather will gradually decrease as they move east across the
forecast area. The main severe weather threat in our area will
likely be damaging winds, but there may still be an isolated
tornado threat in parts of southeast Minnesota and west-central
and north-central Wisconsin. As far as hail, soundings continue to
show a rather skinny CAPE profile; thus, only anticipating hail
maybe up to quarters.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday, the 925 mb and 850 mb temperatures only cool about 2C.
In addition, we will mix up to 775 mb which is about 100 mb deeper
than this afternoon. This will allow high temperatures to top out
in the mid to upper 80s. With the soundings showing quite a bit of
dry air aloft, the mixed down tool suggests that the afternoon
dew points could potentially range from the mid-40s to lower 50s.
This would be in the same range as the dew points currently over
southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Since this would be a large
change from the current forecast, opted to drop them from the
upper 50s to the lower 50s for now. This would lower the
afternoon relative humidities into the 25 to 30 percent range.

From Monday afternoon into Monday night, a much stronger Canadian
cold front will move south through the region. This would drop the
925 mb and 850 mb temperatures anywhere from 12 to 18C colder than
what they were on Sunday afternoon. With much of the forcing and
moisture transport being located across northern Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin, we are still expecting that this front will
move through much of the region dry. At this time, only north-
central Wisconsin has a slight chance of showers.

In the wake of this cold front, high temperatures will be below-
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The high temperatures will
be in the lower and mid-70s on Tuesday and in the mid- to upper
70s on Wednesday.

Small chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
latter part of the week as short wave troughs move through the
area from Wednesday night into Thursday and from Friday afternoon
into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Expect periods of altocumulus overnight at TAF airfields, followed
by scattered VFR clouds for much of Saturday. Introduced VCTS at
KLSE for a three hour period Saturday afternoon for the possibility
of widely scattered storms in the warm sector of an approaching
low pressure system. However, the primary convective line associated
with an eastward racing cold front is not expected to move into
the region until after 26.00Z. Added predominant thunder at KRST
starting at 26.03Z with visibility reduced to 3SM. For KLSE, will
include VCTS also at 26.03Z, but primary line of storms may not
reach the MS River until closer to 26.05Z. Will add detail to
convective chances as the evolution of the storms becomes clearer
over the next 12-18 hours. Non-thunderstorm winds will remain from
the south-southwest through the period, gusting at times into the
lower to mid 20 kt range Saturday late morning into the afternoon.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250831
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
331 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Primary forecast issues today through sunday morning center on
precipitation trends and severe potential tonight as a cold front
slides over the state.

With high pressure drifting east of the area early this
morning, increasing waa to the west was producing areas of BKN040
clouds over Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. A few progs
develop light isolated convection with the advance of the waa and
increasing moisture. Will continue with the small chc mention
over North Central Wisconsin this morning and will monitor areas
to the west for any expansion southward. earlier HRRR runs attempt
to track light convection over North Central and Central
Wisconsin early this morning...while later runs have backed off on
light amounts.

After this potential morning convection...bufkit indicates capping
during the remainder of the morning and possibly into early
afternoon. Forecast soundings suggests this cap begins to erode
in the afternoon. As a result will continue with the ramp up
chance pops this afternoon over the west half of the forecast area.
Anticipate the brunt of convection to occur along and ahead of the
cold front which at 700 pm Saturday was over eastern Minnesota.
This front appears to move out ahead of the main upper low system
and slows down tonight before depart southeast Wisconsin Sunday.
With this scenario, best chance for convection over eastern
Wisconsin will likely be after midnight.

As far as severe potential, mu capes approaching 2500 J over the
western half of the state prior the cold front passage this
evening...then taper off a bit tonight...but still in the 800 to
1500 range. Best large scale lift with the upper jet appears to
be west of the area. Strongest mid level winds also progged to be
located over the northern plains. Heavy rainfall likely with
storms as pwats climb to around 2 inches along and ahead of the
front. Damaging winds with the heavy rainfall appear to be the
primary issue for the area later today into tonight. A few storms
over north central wisconsin may contain large hail late afternoon
and early evening.

Warm day expected today followed by a muggy night with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s. Warm start Sunday along with
subsidence mixing will provide a warm breezy day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Surface cyclonic flow and a mid level short wave will bring
increasing clouds to the area starting late Sunday night, and
there is a chance for some showers in northern Wisconsin on
Monday.

Surface high pressure should help to keep the area dry through the
middle of the week. Return flow, a cold front approaching from the
north, and a mid level short wave in northwest flow will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Thursday. Models
still had some timing differences with this so slight chance pops
have bled into Wednesday night and Thursday night as well.

Below normal daytime highs can be expected on Monday and Tuesday
in the wake of the departing cold front. After that, temperatures
should warm to near normal for Wednesday through Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will slowly shift east toward the east coast through
Saturday morning. Mostly clear skies will give way to mid/high
clouds overnight and Saturday morning as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front. A
few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until Saturday evening as a cold front pushes across MN. The
models have slowed the progression of the front and associated
showers and thunderstorms until Saturday evening. Therefore will
push off any prob30 groups for this activity until the evening
hours. Further refinement is anticipated as additional model runs
come in.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250817
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure is sliding east as a trough of low pressure/cold
front approach from the northwest. 925 mb temps climb into the
mid 20s this afternoon, and should translate into highs pushing
near 90 in a few spots. The lake counties will see a bit of
onshore flow, so a tad cooler there, especially up toward
Sheboygan. Dew points will definitely be on the rise, so look for
very muggy conditions by afternoon.

There is some warm advection and lift this afternoon, but the cap
looks formidable and should hold, especially from Madison on east.
There is a better chance that we could see some early convection
with with the WAA this afternoon west of Madison, so will move up
the chances slightly there. Some of the high res models are very
bullish with some convection across the CWA this afternoon, but
this looks to be a symptom of exaggerated dew points more than
anything.

For tonight, the front will be pushing in later in the evening.
Convection likely will lose some steam as it pushes in, as the
better jet and forcing remain north of the area. SPC has the area
in a marginal risk, with the slight risk just northwest of the
CWA. Can`t argue with that. A warm and muggy night for sure.

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models take the cold front eastward through the area on Sunday,
exiting by later in the afternoon. Low level frontogenesis is
stronger on the NAM than the GFS. Elongated 500 mb vorticity
maximum pushes through as well in the morning, exiting in the
afternoon.

Adjusted area forecast soundings indicate some weakening tall
skinny mean layer CAPE in the morning, then stabilizing by middle
to late afternoon. Best shot at lingering showers and storms would
be in the morning, then decreasing in the afternoon. Continued
this trend with POPs for Sunday.

Kept the warm temperatures for Sunday as well, despite some
expected cloud cover with any lingering showers and storms. 925 mb
temperature fields from models support upper 80s in most of the
area. These values may be several degrees too warm, if the clouds
are more widespread than forecast.

Models show another cold front sliding southeast through the area
Monday morning, with a decent shot of cold air advection behind
it into Monday night. A 500 mb shortwave trough with several
embedded vorticity maxima push southeast through the area as well.

Adjusted area forecast soundings are rather dry during this time,
and may just see some cumulus clouds develop Monday and linger
into Monday night. Kept dry forecast going for now. Temperatures
should drop to more seasonable values Monday into Monday night,
with lower dew points bringing less humid conditions.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

ECMWF/GFS models generally show high pressure sliding southward
from Minnesota into Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. The ECMWF is
slower than the GFS and brings a 500 mb shortwave trough through
the area Tuesday, bringing light QPF to the area. The quicker GFS
is dry Tuesday. They then show dry conditions into Wednesday. For
now, used consensus blend of POPs and kept the dry forecast going
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures should be a little below
seasonal normals, with onshore winds bringing cooler highs near
the lake each day.

The GFS is quicker than the ECMWF with the next cold frontal
passage later in the week. The GFS brings it through the area
Thursday, with the ECMWF Thursday night. Not much in the way of
500 mb support with the front. More differences develop on Friday,
as the front stalls or moves back north as a warm front. Kept
consensus blend of POPs for Wednesday night into Friday for now.
Temperatures should be around seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. A trough of
low pressure will move across the area tonight, likely bringing a
round of showers and thunderstorms. The activity should reach KMSN
around 04-05z Sunday and KMKE/KUES/KENW after about 08-09z. The
showers and storms will be weakening by the time they reach the
southeast. There could be brief MVFR conditions with any heavier
showers/storms. Winds will be southerly today, shifting to
westerly in the wake of the front late tonight and early Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds could approach small craft advisory conditions
this afternoon, with a few gusts in the lower 20kt range.
Thunderstorms are likely tonight with the passage of a trough of
low pressure. Winds will turn westerly on Sunday, and remain
below small craft advisory levels.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Sunday THROUGH Friday...Wood




000
FXUS63 KGRB 250344
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1044 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night. Then quieter weather next week.

The large scale pattern across NOAM is composed of a strong
subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS and a
strong band of westerlies to the north. The longwave ridge
position is over the west with a trough in the east, though
amplitude is currently low. Unseasonably strong upper system
migrating eastward within the main westerlies will track across
the northern U.S. and southern Canada the few days, then a portion
of the energy within that system will dig southeast toward New
England, re-energizing the eastern NOAM upper trough. That will be
accompanied by reamplification of the western ridge, and result in
the reformation of a closed upper anticyclone over the
Intermountain West.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, fall back to a
little below seasonal normal early next week, then warm back close
to seasonal normals for the latter part of the period. The main
precipitation event will be Saturday night, and amounts for the
next week will depend primarily on what occurs then. The
developing northwest upper flow during the middle to latter part
of the forecast period will probably result in just scattered
light amounts.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast focus to be on Saturday afternoon as an approaching
cold front runs into an unstable air mass over WI. The biggest
issue is trying to determine where the main crux of thunderstorms
will be late in the day and whether any of these storms to be
severe.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest Lower Michigan, with an area of low
pressure over northwest South Dakota. A broad southerly flow
existed between these two weather features across the Plains and
Midwest with rising temperatures and dew points. A warm front
stretched from the South Dakota low southeast to the Mid-MS Valley
and a cold extended from the surface low south-southwest into the
Rockies.

The area of high pressure is expected to shift east toward the
Eastern Great Lakes tonight allowing for the more pronounced
southerly wind to take over WI. While this evening should be
mostly clear, expect to see some increase in clouds (especially
over Central WI) as the warm front lifts north-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley/Midwest. Increasing WAA will not only bring more
clouds into WI later tonight, but could generate a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across western WI in the pre-dawn hours.
Tonight will also be noticeably milder than last night with min
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect the chance for showers/thunderstorms to continue across
western WI, although persistent WAA/storm movement could bring
some of this precipitation toward parts of Central/North-Central
WI Saturday morning. None of these storms would be severe. Main
focal point for additional convective activity will be along/ahead
of the eastward moving cold front that is progged to reach Central
MN by 00z Sunday. Timing/extent of this next round of
precipitation is a problem as morning showers or storms would
dissipate late Saturday morning and a cap will develop over much
of WI during the afternoon. Instability will strengthen with CAPEs
maxing out around 2500 J/KG over central WI, along with LI`s as
low as -8. Another problem is that the better shear/lift/forcing
to still be well to our north and west Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing closed upper low near Lake
Winnipeg. Latest thinking is to slow the eastward advancement of
the convection with the main show not arriving until Saturday
evening. Therefore, have kept chance pops across Central/North-
Central WI for later afternoon, but have kept the east dry. Max
temperatures should be quite warm, along with increasing humidity
through the day. Look for readings to be near 80 degrees near Lake
MI, generally mid 80s elsewhere with a few upper 80s in the
typically warmer spots of central and far northeast WI.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The severe weather potential on Saturday night is the main long
term forecast concern.

The cold front from the northern Plains will surge east Saturday
night. The latest guidance suite is perhaps a little slower to
form convection along the front when compared to previous runs,
but moves it east fairly quickly once it forms. Adjusted PoPs for
Saturday night to depict most likely timing of the storms, with
categorical 12 hours PoPs across the entire area. It`s likely
sufficient destabilization will occur Saturday to support a severe
threat at least through the evening as southwest low-level flow
ahead of the front will continue to bring additional low-level
moisture into the area in advance of the front. The upper support
is in the form of an unseasonably strong upper system, though that
will be holding back well to the west of the surface front. The
strongest deep-layer shear will also remain well behind the front.
The greatest risk of severe weather will be across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with a somewhat lower risk in the east.
The severe risk will lessen if the arrival of the storms is slower
than what is currently expected. Will need to keep alert for that
possibility, since the upper system is still way back to the west
over Washington state this afternoon.

Convection could still be exiting the east early Sunday. In the
wake of that, cold advection aloft will steepen the lapse rates
and result in deep mixing and gusty west winds. Temperatures will
probably respond well, especially as the east will be getting off
to a warm start. Went with max temperatures toward the higher edge
of the guidance envelope.

At least areas of clouds are expected to drop southeast across the
area Sunday night and Monday as a shortwave wrapping around the
southwest flank of the departing system crosses the area. The
feature could even bring a few showers to the north.

A return to northwest upper flow will result in quieter weather
for the upcoming work week. No significant changes were needed to
the extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad blend
of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure will slowly shift east toward the east coast through
Saturday morning. Mostly clear skies will give way to mid/high
clouds overnight and Saturday morning as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front. A
few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until Saturday evening as a cold front pushes across MN. The
models have slowed the progression of the front and associated
showers and thunderstorms until Saturday evening. Therefore will
push off any prob30 groups for this activity until the evening
hours. Further refinement is anticipated as additional model runs
come in.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski




000
FXUS63 KARX 250258
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
958 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Currently as of 19z...water vapor loop and RAP 500mb height analysis
showed an anomalously deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, with
ridging downstream over the Dakotas and MN. This places the forecast
area in subsidence and high pressure at the surface, yielding mostly
sunny skies for most. The lone exception has been a persistent
stratus deck, the one that plagued the area yesterday, which
encompassed southeast MN in portions of northeast IA this morning.
Sunshine has helped mixed most of it out, though. Much more sun
today combined with 925mb temps near 20C has helped propel
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints have been
slowly on the rise as well with low 60s west of the MS river, with
70s streaming northward out of eastern KS and western MO.

Much of the evening looks quiet as the area remains under the
influence of high pressure. However, as the upper ridge axis crosses
the area after midnight, we see an increase of 850mb moisture
transport aiming towards us, though the best convergence on its nose
is more over northern MN. That latter location appears primed to
have convection going if not an MCS, whereas our moisture transport
may lead to just accas or some isolated shower/storm development.
Kept some 20 percent chances for this warm advection potential. Any
of this convection should keep lifting northeast during the morning
and dissipate as the nocturnal jet mixes out.

For Saturday afternoon, we have two areas of focus. The first is
with a low level moisture surge basically marching north up the MS
river. The GFS, ECMWF, Regional Canadian, 12Z NSSL WRF and 09Z ESRL
HRRR all produce some scattered shower/storm activity. This is aided
by temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints
rising into the low to mid 70s, and a weak shortwave trough coming
through the southwest flow aloft. Have kept some 20-30 percent
chances in for this. The next concern is out west where the
anomalously deep trough marches east into the Dakotas, pushing a
cold front into MN and into the warm and humid airmass. Very good
model agreement for storms to erupt with capping breaking between 20-
21Z from Grand Rapids MN to St. Cloud and Sioux Falls SD. Since the
cold front will still reside west of I-35 at 00Z, it`s going to take
the storms cold pools to help march them eastward. Thus, models have
slowed down the storms approach to now make it look like 6-8 pm when
they move into southeast MN and northeast IA. Expect the storms to
march their way across the forecast area during the evening, pushed
along by the cold front and outflow, perhaps lingering a little bit
after midnight in the east.

On the severe weather side of things, given the increasing dewpoints
and warm temperatures, no problems expected with CAPE or CIN. Now
shear is a different story. For the most part 0-6km shear is weak,
sub 30 kt. However, there are some signs for a 30-40 kt 500mb wind
core to come out of central Nebraska at 18z and cross southeast MN
into northwest WI at 00z. If this comes to pass storms could end up
supercellular for a time with hail and damaging winds a threat. More
likely is a broken line of line segments given 0-3km shear in the 25-
30 kt range. Given this shear and a surge of precipitable water
around 2 inches to aid in heavy rain rates and cold pool, would
think strong to damaging wind would be the main threat for our
forecast area. Inflow notches will also need monitoring for
possible tornado given 0-1km shear climbing into the 25-35 kt
range in the evening. Overall highest shear forecast, and most
coverage of severe weather, expected in northwest WI where SPC day
2 enhanced is depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday through Monday on tap to be breezy days across the region as
the anomalously deep trough moves into the northern Great Lakes
and northern Ontario. Sunday still looks on the warm side with
925mb temps in the 23-26C range, perhaps about 1C cooler than
Saturday. However, drier air coming in will make it feel much less
humid. Secondary cold front associated with the deep trough slated
to come through Sunday night to usher in much cooler air for
Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Despite the cooler air,
still looking at dry conditions with any cyclonic flow showers
expected farther to the northeast in Upper MI.

For the rest of next week, it`s looking very quiet across the area.
The upper level flow features the summer heat ridge retrograding to
the western U.S., setting up a fairly amplified northwest flow
pattern in the eastern U.s.. This means a seasonably cool and dry
air flow out of Canada. Coolest time period looks to be Monday night
where our typical cold spots could hit the mid 40s as Canadian high
pressure builds in. The only feature really of interest is a cold
front dropping into the area Thursday through Friday, which is the
next chance of showers and storms after Saturday night. Still, given
meager moisture in the northwest flow only produced from
evapotranspiration, kept chances around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Expect periods of altocumulus overnight at TAF airfields, followed
by scattered VFR clouds for much of Saturday. Introduced VCTS at
KLSE for a three hour period Saturday afternoon for the possibility
of widely scattered storms in the warm sector of an approaching
low pressure system. However, the primary convective line associated
with an eastward racing cold front is not expected to move into
the region until after 26.00Z. Added predominant thunder at KRST
starting at 26.03Z with visibility reduced to 3SM. For KLSE, will
include VCTS also at 26.03Z, but primary line of storms may not
reach the MS River until closer to 26.05Z. Will add detail to
convective chances as the evolution of the storms becomes clearer
over the next 12-18 hours. Non-thunderstorm winds will remain from
the south-southwest through the period, gusting at times into the
lower to mid 20 kt range Saturday late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 250258
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
958 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Currently as of 19z...water vapor loop and RAP 500mb height analysis
showed an anomalously deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, with
ridging downstream over the Dakotas and MN. This places the forecast
area in subsidence and high pressure at the surface, yielding mostly
sunny skies for most. The lone exception has been a persistent
stratus deck, the one that plagued the area yesterday, which
encompassed southeast MN in portions of northeast IA this morning.
Sunshine has helped mixed most of it out, though. Much more sun
today combined with 925mb temps near 20C has helped propel
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints have been
slowly on the rise as well with low 60s west of the MS river, with
70s streaming northward out of eastern KS and western MO.

Much of the evening looks quiet as the area remains under the
influence of high pressure. However, as the upper ridge axis crosses
the area after midnight, we see an increase of 850mb moisture
transport aiming towards us, though the best convergence on its nose
is more over northern MN. That latter location appears primed to
have convection going if not an MCS, whereas our moisture transport
may lead to just accas or some isolated shower/storm development.
Kept some 20 percent chances for this warm advection potential. Any
of this convection should keep lifting northeast during the morning
and dissipate as the nocturnal jet mixes out.

For Saturday afternoon, we have two areas of focus. The first is
with a low level moisture surge basically marching north up the MS
river. The GFS, ECMWF, Regional Canadian, 12Z NSSL WRF and 09Z ESRL
HRRR all produce some scattered shower/storm activity. This is aided
by temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints
rising into the low to mid 70s, and a weak shortwave trough coming
through the southwest flow aloft. Have kept some 20-30 percent
chances in for this. The next concern is out west where the
anomalously deep trough marches east into the Dakotas, pushing a
cold front into MN and into the warm and humid airmass. Very good
model agreement for storms to erupt with capping breaking between 20-
21Z from Grand Rapids MN to St. Cloud and Sioux Falls SD. Since the
cold front will still reside west of I-35 at 00Z, it`s going to take
the storms cold pools to help march them eastward. Thus, models have
slowed down the storms approach to now make it look like 6-8 pm when
they move into southeast MN and northeast IA. Expect the storms to
march their way across the forecast area during the evening, pushed
along by the cold front and outflow, perhaps lingering a little bit
after midnight in the east.

On the severe weather side of things, given the increasing dewpoints
and warm temperatures, no problems expected with CAPE or CIN. Now
shear is a different story. For the most part 0-6km shear is weak,
sub 30 kt. However, there are some signs for a 30-40 kt 500mb wind
core to come out of central Nebraska at 18z and cross southeast MN
into northwest WI at 00z. If this comes to pass storms could end up
supercellular for a time with hail and damaging winds a threat. More
likely is a broken line of line segments given 0-3km shear in the 25-
30 kt range. Given this shear and a surge of precipitable water
around 2 inches to aid in heavy rain rates and cold pool, would
think strong to damaging wind would be the main threat for our
forecast area. Inflow notches will also need monitoring for
possible tornado given 0-1km shear climbing into the 25-35 kt
range in the evening. Overall highest shear forecast, and most
coverage of severe weather, expected in northwest WI where SPC day
2 enhanced is depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday through Monday on tap to be breezy days across the region as
the anomalously deep trough moves into the northern Great Lakes
and northern Ontario. Sunday still looks on the warm side with
925mb temps in the 23-26C range, perhaps about 1C cooler than
Saturday. However, drier air coming in will make it feel much less
humid. Secondary cold front associated with the deep trough slated
to come through Sunday night to usher in much cooler air for
Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Despite the cooler air,
still looking at dry conditions with any cyclonic flow showers
expected farther to the northeast in Upper MI.

For the rest of next week, it`s looking very quiet across the area.
The upper level flow features the summer heat ridge retrograding to
the western U.S., setting up a fairly amplified northwest flow
pattern in the eastern U.s.. This means a seasonably cool and dry
air flow out of Canada. Coolest time period looks to be Monday night
where our typical cold spots could hit the mid 40s as Canadian high
pressure builds in. The only feature really of interest is a cold
front dropping into the area Thursday through Friday, which is the
next chance of showers and storms after Saturday night. Still, given
meager moisture in the northwest flow only produced from
evapotranspiration, kept chances around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Expect periods of altocumulus overnight at TAF airfields, followed
by scattered VFR clouds for much of Saturday. Introduced VCTS at
KLSE for a three hour period Saturday afternoon for the possibility
of widely scattered storms in the warm sector of an approaching
low pressure system. However, the primary convective line associated
with an eastward racing cold front is not expected to move into
the region until after 26.00Z. Added predominant thunder at KRST
starting at 26.03Z with visibility reduced to 3SM. For KLSE, will
include VCTS also at 26.03Z, but primary line of storms may not
reach the MS River until closer to 26.05Z. Will add detail to
convective chances as the evolution of the storms becomes clearer
over the next 12-18 hours. Non-thunderstorm winds will remain from
the south-southwest through the period, gusting at times into the
lower to mid 20 kt range Saturday late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250204
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...Quiet conditions to continue through tonight. Some late
night patchy light fog will be possible away from the lake where
surface dewpoints remain in the lower 60s. However boundary layer
mixing just off the surface should keep fog from becoming more
significant. Otherwise, timing for Saturday and Saturday night
precipitation looks good at this point.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...High pressure over the Great Lakes region will
bring continued VFR conditions to the TAF sites for tonight into
Saturday. Some light fog is possible for a time late tonight in
the western River valleys, but increasing southerly winds should
be enough to keep this in check.

Expect increasing cloud cover on Saturday from west to east ahead of
a cold front over Minnesota. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible for MSN and points west during the afternoon or evening,
but most forecast model guidance keeps things dry until the cold
front approaches from the west Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...Expect predominately south to southeast winds to
continue through Saturday with some increase in wind speeds.
Weakening showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the near
shore waters later Saturday night into early Sunday as a cold
front moves through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will slowly depart to the east tonight into Saturday
as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Diurnal
cumulus will wipe out with the loss of daytime heating late this
afternoon into the evening, with mostly clear skies expected
overnight. There could be a little fog in river valleys and other
low lying areas. Not confident in this though given the expected
gradual increase in low level winds overnight and maybe some
increase in clouds from the west later in the night.

Latest guidance has slowed the progression of the trough tomorrow,
suggesting mainly dry weather through the afternoon. Did keep a
chance for showers/storms in the west later in the afternoon as
there could be some activity on leading edge of deeper moisture.
The later trough arrival should spell more sunshine, so bumped
temps up a bit for tomorrow.

SATURDAY NIGHT and sunday...Forecast Confidence...High

The 12z Models have slowed the progression of the upstream
mid/upper shortwave. An upper level ridge moves across the Great
Lakes as a strong shortwave moves across southern Canada from
north of the Dakotas to north of Lake Superior. Southern
Wisconsin gradually becomes in the right entrance region of the
upper jet Sunday. Upper level divergence occurs Saturday night and
continues into Sunday, especially southeast. 700 mb upward motion
increases Saturday evening south central and across the south
overnight. The upward motion weakens Sunday morning. A band of
high 850/700 mb RH moves into the forecast area Saturday night
with a 30 knot 850 mb flow. The higher RH lingers southeast until
around noon.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s with a slow decrease Sunday. GFS surface based CAPE increases
to near 3000 joules/kg south central with only a weak cap, but
CAPE is less than 1000 joules/kg far east.

The highest thunderstorm potential is Saturday evening south
central and especially Saturday night, then spreading into the
southeast late. The chance of thunderstorms continues through the
morning southeast.  GFS forecast soundings do have marginal
severe potential on NSHARP.

SUNDAY night and monday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper shortwave north of Lake Superior moves east with the
entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin. Weak
700 mb upward motion Monday. The dry wedge at 700 mb Sunay night
moistens a little Monday. the 850 mb layers moisten from the north
Monday as an 850 mb trough moves in them the north. GFS forecast
soundings show a rather strong cap above 850 mb which should
reduce any shower chances.

Winds should be rather breezy Monday.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY night THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Great lakes with a
west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin. One
shortwave will exit the central plains and into the mid
Mississippi Valley Wednesday.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest. The trough has a band of
showers/thunderstorms on the GFS with the 00z ECMWF drier.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will continue most places through the day Saturday.
There could be a little fog tonight, but some increasing cloudiness
from the west and an uptick in low level winds will likely disrupt
any widespread fog from developing.

After evaluating 12Z guidance, it looks mainly dry through tomorrow
afternoon, with bulk of showers/storms holding off until evening and
overnight when the trough comes through.

MARINE...

Southerly winds ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will
gust as high as 20 knots Saturday and waves could approach 4 feet.
Overall though, winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the weekend.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK
UPDATE AVIATION...SPM
TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Hentz




000
FXUS63 KARX 242324
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
624 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Currently as of 19z...water vapor loop and RAP 500mb height analysis
showed an anomalously deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, with
ridging downstream over the Dakotas and MN. This places the forecast
area in subsidence and high pressure at the surface, yielding mostly
sunny skies for most. The lone exception has been a persistent
stratus deck, the one that plagued the area yesterday, which
encompassed southeast MN in portions of northeast IA this morning.
Sunshine has helped mixed most of it out, though. Much more sun
today combined with 925mb temps near 20C has helped propel
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints have been
slowly on the rise as well with low 60s west of the MS river, with
70s streaming northward out of eastern KS and western MO.

Much of the evening looks quiet as the area remains under the
influence of high pressure. However, as the upper ridge axis crosses
the area after midnight, we see an increase of 850mb moisture
transport aiming towards us, though the best convergence on its nose
is more over northern MN. That latter location appears primed to
have convection going if not an MCS, whereas our moisture transport
may lead to just accas or some isolated shower/storm development.
Kept some 20 percent chances for this warm advection potential. Any
of this convection should keep lifting northeast during the morning
and dissipate as the nocturnal jet mixes out.

For Saturday afternoon, we have two areas of focus. The first is
with a low level moisture surge basically marching north up the MS
river. The GFS, ECMWF, Regional Canadian, 12Z NSSL WRF and 09Z ESRL
HRRR all produce some scattered shower/storm activity. This is aided
by temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints
rising into the low to mid 70s, and a weak shortwave trough coming
through the southwest flow aloft. Have kept some 20-30 percent
chances in for this. The next concern is out west where the
anomalously deep trough marches east into the Dakotas, pushing a
cold front into MN and into the warm and humid airmass. Very good
model agreement for storms to erupt with capping breaking between 20-
21Z from Grand Rapids MN to St. Cloud and Sioux Falls SD. Since the
cold front will still reside west of I-35 at 00Z, it`s going to take
the storms cold pools to help march them eastward. Thus, models have
slowed down the storms approach to now make it look like 6-8 pm when
they move into southeast MN and northeast IA. Expect the storms to
march their way across the forecast area during the evening, pushed
along by the cold front and outflow, perhaps lingering a little bit
after midnight in the east.

On the severe weather side of things, given the increasing dewpoints
and warm temperatures, no problems expected with CAPE or CIN. Now
shear is a different story. For the most part 0-6km shear is weak,
sub 30 kt. However, there are some signs for a 30-40 kt 500mb wind
core to come out of central Nebraska at 18z and cross southeast MN
into northwest WI at 00z. If this comes to pass storms could end up
supercellular for a time with hail and damaging winds a threat. More
likely is a broken line of line segments given 0-3km shear in the 25-
30 kt range. Given this shear and a surge of precipitable water
around 2 inches to aid in heavy rain rates and cold pool, would
think strong to damaging wind would be the main threat for our
forecast area. Inflow notches will also need monitoring for
possible tornado given 0-1km shear climbing into the 25-35 kt
range in the evening. Overall highest shear forecast, and most
coverage of severe weather, expected in northwest WI where SPC day
2 enhanced is depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday through Monday on tap to be breezy days across the region as
the anomalously deep trough moves into the northern Great Lakes
and northern Ontario. Sunday still looks on the warm side with
925mb temps in the 23-26C range, perhaps about 1C cooler than
Saturday. However, drier air coming in will make it feel much less
humid. Secondary cold front associated with the deep trough slated
to come through Sunday night to usher in much cooler air for
Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Despite the cooler air,
still looking at dry conditions with any cyclonic flow showers
expected farther to the northeast in Upper MI.

For the rest of next week, it`s looking very quiet across the area.
The upper level flow features the summer heat ridge retrograding to
the western U.S., setting up a fairly amplified northwest flow
pattern in the eastern U.s.. This means a seasonably cool and dry
air flow out of Canada. Coolest time period looks to be Monday night
where our typical cold spots could hit the mid 40s as Canadian high
pressure builds in. The only feature really of interest is a cold
front dropping into the area Thursday through Friday, which is the
next chance of showers and storms after Saturday night. Still, given
meager moisture in the northwest flow only produced from
evapotranspiration, kept chances around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Mostly clear skies this evening will give way to some increasing
mid-level cloud cover overnight at KRST/KLSE. Scattered VFR clouds
will then continue through 00Z Sunday. Light south winds through
the overnight will increase mid-Saturday morning with frequent
gusts into the lower to mid 20 kt range. Looking ahead, a line of
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will move across the Upper
MS River Valley between 25.00Z and 25.09Z, likely to impact both
TAF airfields. Will provide greater detail with the 25.06Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 242324
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
624 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Currently as of 19z...water vapor loop and RAP 500mb height analysis
showed an anomalously deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, with
ridging downstream over the Dakotas and MN. This places the forecast
area in subsidence and high pressure at the surface, yielding mostly
sunny skies for most. The lone exception has been a persistent
stratus deck, the one that plagued the area yesterday, which
encompassed southeast MN in portions of northeast IA this morning.
Sunshine has helped mixed most of it out, though. Much more sun
today combined with 925mb temps near 20C has helped propel
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints have been
slowly on the rise as well with low 60s west of the MS river, with
70s streaming northward out of eastern KS and western MO.

Much of the evening looks quiet as the area remains under the
influence of high pressure. However, as the upper ridge axis crosses
the area after midnight, we see an increase of 850mb moisture
transport aiming towards us, though the best convergence on its nose
is more over northern MN. That latter location appears primed to
have convection going if not an MCS, whereas our moisture transport
may lead to just accas or some isolated shower/storm development.
Kept some 20 percent chances for this warm advection potential. Any
of this convection should keep lifting northeast during the morning
and dissipate as the nocturnal jet mixes out.

For Saturday afternoon, we have two areas of focus. The first is
with a low level moisture surge basically marching north up the MS
river. The GFS, ECMWF, Regional Canadian, 12Z NSSL WRF and 09Z ESRL
HRRR all produce some scattered shower/storm activity. This is aided
by temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints
rising into the low to mid 70s, and a weak shortwave trough coming
through the southwest flow aloft. Have kept some 20-30 percent
chances in for this. The next concern is out west where the
anomalously deep trough marches east into the Dakotas, pushing a
cold front into MN and into the warm and humid airmass. Very good
model agreement for storms to erupt with capping breaking between 20-
21Z from Grand Rapids MN to St. Cloud and Sioux Falls SD. Since the
cold front will still reside west of I-35 at 00Z, it`s going to take
the storms cold pools to help march them eastward. Thus, models have
slowed down the storms approach to now make it look like 6-8 pm when
they move into southeast MN and northeast IA. Expect the storms to
march their way across the forecast area during the evening, pushed
along by the cold front and outflow, perhaps lingering a little bit
after midnight in the east.

On the severe weather side of things, given the increasing dewpoints
and warm temperatures, no problems expected with CAPE or CIN. Now
shear is a different story. For the most part 0-6km shear is weak,
sub 30 kt. However, there are some signs for a 30-40 kt 500mb wind
core to come out of central Nebraska at 18z and cross southeast MN
into northwest WI at 00z. If this comes to pass storms could end up
supercellular for a time with hail and damaging winds a threat. More
likely is a broken line of line segments given 0-3km shear in the 25-
30 kt range. Given this shear and a surge of precipitable water
around 2 inches to aid in heavy rain rates and cold pool, would
think strong to damaging wind would be the main threat for our
forecast area. Inflow notches will also need monitoring for
possible tornado given 0-1km shear climbing into the 25-35 kt
range in the evening. Overall highest shear forecast, and most
coverage of severe weather, expected in northwest WI where SPC day
2 enhanced is depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday through Monday on tap to be breezy days across the region as
the anomalously deep trough moves into the northern Great Lakes
and northern Ontario. Sunday still looks on the warm side with
925mb temps in the 23-26C range, perhaps about 1C cooler than
Saturday. However, drier air coming in will make it feel much less
humid. Secondary cold front associated with the deep trough slated
to come through Sunday night to usher in much cooler air for
Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Despite the cooler air,
still looking at dry conditions with any cyclonic flow showers
expected farther to the northeast in Upper MI.

For the rest of next week, it`s looking very quiet across the area.
The upper level flow features the summer heat ridge retrograding to
the western U.S., setting up a fairly amplified northwest flow
pattern in the eastern U.s.. This means a seasonably cool and dry
air flow out of Canada. Coolest time period looks to be Monday night
where our typical cold spots could hit the mid 40s as Canadian high
pressure builds in. The only feature really of interest is a cold
front dropping into the area Thursday through Friday, which is the
next chance of showers and storms after Saturday night. Still, given
meager moisture in the northwest flow only produced from
evapotranspiration, kept chances around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Mostly clear skies this evening will give way to some increasing
mid-level cloud cover overnight at KRST/KLSE. Scattered VFR clouds
will then continue through 00Z Sunday. Light south winds through
the overnight will increase mid-Saturday morning with frequent
gusts into the lower to mid 20 kt range. Looking ahead, a line of
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will move across the Upper
MS River Valley between 25.00Z and 25.09Z, likely to impact both
TAF airfields. Will provide greater detail with the 25.06Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 242306
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
606 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night. Then quieter weather next week.

The large scale pattern across NOAM is composed of a strong
subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS and a
strong band of westerlies to the north. The longwave ridge
position is over the west with a trough in the east, though
amplitude is currently low. Unseasonably strong upper system
migrating eastward within the main westerlies will track across
the northern U.S. and southern Canada the few days, then a portion
of the energy within that system will dig southeast toward New
England, re-energizing the eastern NOAM upper trough. That will be
accompanied by reamplification of the western ridge, and result in
the reformation of a closed upper anticyclone over the
Intermountain West.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, fall back to a
little below seasonal normal early next week, then warm back close
to seasonal normals for the latter part of the period. The main
precipitation event will be Saturday night, and amounts for the
next week will depend primarily on what occurs then. The
developing northwest upper flow during the middle to latter part
of the forecast period will probably result in just scattered
light amounts.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast focus to be on Saturday afternoon as an approaching
cold front runs into an unstable air mass over WI. The biggest
issue is trying to determine where the main crux of thunderstorms
will be late in the day and whether any of these storms to be
severe.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest Lower Michigan, with an area of low
pressure over northwest South Dakota. A broad southerly flow
existed between these two weather features across the Plains and
Midwest with rising temperatures and dew points. A warm front
stretched from the South Dakota low southeast to the Mid-MS Valley
and a cold extended from the surface low south-southwest into the
Rockies.

The area of high pressure is expected to shift east toward the
Eastern Great Lakes tonight allowing for the more pronounced
southerly wind to take over WI. While this evening should be
mostly clear, expect to see some increase in clouds (especially
over Central WI) as the warm front lifts north-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley/Midwest. Increasing WAA will not only bring more
clouds into WI later tonight, but could generate a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across western WI in the pre-dawn hours.
Tonight will also be noticeably milder than last night with min
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect the chance for showers/thunderstorms to continue across
western WI, although persistent WAA/storm movement could bring
some of this precipitation toward parts of Central/North-Central
WI Saturday morning. None of these storms would be severe. Main
focal point for additional convective activity will be along/ahead
of the eastward moving cold front that is progged to reach Central
MN by 00z Sunday. Timing/extent of this next round of
precipitation is a problem as morning showers or storms would
dissipate late Saturday morning and a cap will develop over much
of WI during the afternoon. Instability will strengthen with CAPEs
maxing out around 2500 J/KG over central WI, along with LI`s as
low as -8. Another problem is that the better shear/lift/forcing
to still be well to our north and west Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing closed upper low near Lake
Winnipeg. Latest thinking is to slow the eastward advancement of
the convection with the main show not arriving until Saturday
evening. Therefore, have kept chance pops across Central/North-
Central WI for later afternoon, but have kept the east dry. Max
temperatures should be quite warm, along with increasing humidity
through the day. Look for readings to be near 80 degrees near Lake
MI, generally mid 80s elsewhere with a few upper 80s in the
typically warmer spots of central and far northeast WI.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The severe weather potential on Saturday night is the main long
term forecast concern.

The cold front from the northern Plains will surge east Saturday
night. The latest guidance suite is perhaps a little slower to
form convection along the front when compared to previous runs,
but moves it east fairly quickly once it forms. Adjusted PoPs for
Saturday night to depict most likely timing of the storms, with
categorical 12 hours PoPs across the entire area. It`s likely
sufficient destabilization will occur Saturday to support a severe
threat at least through the evening as southwest low-level flow
ahead of the front will continue to bring additional low-level
moisture into the area in advance of the front. The upper support
is in the form of an unseasonably strong upper system, though that
will be holding back well to the west of the surface front. The
strongest deep-layer shear will also remain well behind the front.
The greatest risk of severe weather will be across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with a somewhat lower risk in the east.
The severe risk will lessen if the arrival of the storms is slower
than what is currently expected. Will need to keep alert for that
possibility, since the upper system is still way back to the west
over Washington state this afternoon.

Convection could still be exiting the east early Sunday. In the
wake of that, cold advection aloft will steepen the lapse rates
and result in deep mixing and gusty west winds. Temperatures will
probably respond well, especially as the east will be getting off
to a warm start. Went with max temperatures toward the higher edge
of the guidance envelope.

At least areas of clouds are expected to drop southeast across the
area Sunday night and Monday as a shortwave wrapping around the
southwest flank of the departing system crosses the area. The
feature could even bring a few showers to the north.

A return to northwest upper flow will result in quieter weather
for the upcoming work week. No significant changes were needed to
the extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad blend
of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east toward
the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR conditions are expected
through the taf period. Mostly clear skies this evening will give
way to mid/high clouds overnight as showers/thunderstorms develop
to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front. A few of
these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon and into the evening as a cold
front pushes across MN. At this point the main airport at risk for
this activity through the taf period is RHI, where a prob30 will
be placed at the end of the period with this issuance.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski




000
FXUS63 KGRB 242306
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
606 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night. Then quieter weather next week.

The large scale pattern across NOAM is composed of a strong
subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS and a
strong band of westerlies to the north. The longwave ridge
position is over the west with a trough in the east, though
amplitude is currently low. Unseasonably strong upper system
migrating eastward within the main westerlies will track across
the northern U.S. and southern Canada the few days, then a portion
of the energy within that system will dig southeast toward New
England, re-energizing the eastern NOAM upper trough. That will be
accompanied by reamplification of the western ridge, and result in
the reformation of a closed upper anticyclone over the
Intermountain West.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, fall back to a
little below seasonal normal early next week, then warm back close
to seasonal normals for the latter part of the period. The main
precipitation event will be Saturday night, and amounts for the
next week will depend primarily on what occurs then. The
developing northwest upper flow during the middle to latter part
of the forecast period will probably result in just scattered
light amounts.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast focus to be on Saturday afternoon as an approaching
cold front runs into an unstable air mass over WI. The biggest
issue is trying to determine where the main crux of thunderstorms
will be late in the day and whether any of these storms to be
severe.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest Lower Michigan, with an area of low
pressure over northwest South Dakota. A broad southerly flow
existed between these two weather features across the Plains and
Midwest with rising temperatures and dew points. A warm front
stretched from the South Dakota low southeast to the Mid-MS Valley
and a cold extended from the surface low south-southwest into the
Rockies.

The area of high pressure is expected to shift east toward the
Eastern Great Lakes tonight allowing for the more pronounced
southerly wind to take over WI. While this evening should be
mostly clear, expect to see some increase in clouds (especially
over Central WI) as the warm front lifts north-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley/Midwest. Increasing WAA will not only bring more
clouds into WI later tonight, but could generate a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across western WI in the pre-dawn hours.
Tonight will also be noticeably milder than last night with min
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect the chance for showers/thunderstorms to continue across
western WI, although persistent WAA/storm movement could bring
some of this precipitation toward parts of Central/North-Central
WI Saturday morning. None of these storms would be severe. Main
focal point for additional convective activity will be along/ahead
of the eastward moving cold front that is progged to reach Central
MN by 00z Sunday. Timing/extent of this next round of
precipitation is a problem as morning showers or storms would
dissipate late Saturday morning and a cap will develop over much
of WI during the afternoon. Instability will strengthen with CAPEs
maxing out around 2500 J/KG over central WI, along with LI`s as
low as -8. Another problem is that the better shear/lift/forcing
to still be well to our north and west Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing closed upper low near Lake
Winnipeg. Latest thinking is to slow the eastward advancement of
the convection with the main show not arriving until Saturday
evening. Therefore, have kept chance pops across Central/North-
Central WI for later afternoon, but have kept the east dry. Max
temperatures should be quite warm, along with increasing humidity
through the day. Look for readings to be near 80 degrees near Lake
MI, generally mid 80s elsewhere with a few upper 80s in the
typically warmer spots of central and far northeast WI.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The severe weather potential on Saturday night is the main long
term forecast concern.

The cold front from the northern Plains will surge east Saturday
night. The latest guidance suite is perhaps a little slower to
form convection along the front when compared to previous runs,
but moves it east fairly quickly once it forms. Adjusted PoPs for
Saturday night to depict most likely timing of the storms, with
categorical 12 hours PoPs across the entire area. It`s likely
sufficient destabilization will occur Saturday to support a severe
threat at least through the evening as southwest low-level flow
ahead of the front will continue to bring additional low-level
moisture into the area in advance of the front. The upper support
is in the form of an unseasonably strong upper system, though that
will be holding back well to the west of the surface front. The
strongest deep-layer shear will also remain well behind the front.
The greatest risk of severe weather will be across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with a somewhat lower risk in the east.
The severe risk will lessen if the arrival of the storms is slower
than what is currently expected. Will need to keep alert for that
possibility, since the upper system is still way back to the west
over Washington state this afternoon.

Convection could still be exiting the east early Sunday. In the
wake of that, cold advection aloft will steepen the lapse rates
and result in deep mixing and gusty west winds. Temperatures will
probably respond well, especially as the east will be getting off
to a warm start. Went with max temperatures toward the higher edge
of the guidance envelope.

At least areas of clouds are expected to drop southeast across the
area Sunday night and Monday as a shortwave wrapping around the
southwest flank of the departing system crosses the area. The
feature could even bring a few showers to the north.

A return to northwest upper flow will result in quieter weather
for the upcoming work week. No significant changes were needed to
the extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad blend
of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east toward
the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR conditions are expected
through the taf period. Mostly clear skies this evening will give
way to mid/high clouds overnight as showers/thunderstorms develop
to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front. A few of
these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon and into the evening as a cold
front pushes across MN. At this point the main airport at risk for
this activity through the taf period is RHI, where a prob30 will
be placed at the end of the period with this issuance.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......Kurimski




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242025
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will slowly depart to the east tonight into Saturday
as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Diurnal
cumulus will wipe out with the loss of daytime heating late this
afternoon into the evening, with mostly clear skies expected
overnight. There could be a little fog in river valleys and other
low lying areas. Not confident in this though given the expected
gradual increase in low level winds overnight and maybe some
increase in clouds from the west later in the night.

Latest guidance has slowed the progression of the trough tomorrow,
suggesting mainly dry weather through the afternoon. Did keep a
chance for showers/storms in the west later in the afternoon as
there could be some activity on leading edge of deeper moisture.
The later trough arrival should spell more sunshine, so bumped
temps up a bit for tomorrow.

.SATURDAY NIGHT and sunday...Forecast Confidence...High

The 12z Models have slowed the progression of the upstream
mid/upper shortwave. An upper level ridge moves across the Great
Lakes as a strong shortwave moves across southern Canada from
north of the Dakotas to north of Lake Superior. Southern
Wisconsin gradually becomes in the right entrance region of the
upper jet Sunday. Upper level divergence occurs Saturday night and
continues into Sunday, especially southeast. 700 mb upward motion
increases Saturday evening south central and across the south
overnight. The upward motion weakens Sunday morning. A band of
high 850/700 mb RH moves into the forecast area Saturday night
with a 30 knot 850 mb flow. The higher RH lingers southeast until
around noon.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s with a slow decrease Sunday. GFS surface based CAPE increases
to near 3000 joules/kg south central with only a weak cap, but
CAPE is less than 1000 joules/kg far east.

The highest thunderstorm potential is Saturday evening south
central and especially Saturday night, then spreading into the
southeast late. The chance of thunderstorms continues through the
morning southeast.  GFS forecast soundings do have marginal
severe potential on NSHARP.

SUNDAY night and monday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper shortwave north of Lake Superior moves east with the
entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin. Weak
700 mb upward motion Monday. The dry wedge at 700 mb Sunay night
moistens a little Monday. the 850 mb layers moisten from the north
Monday as an 850 mb trough moves in them the north. GFS forecast
soundings show a rather strong cap above 850 mb which should
reduce any shower chances.

Winds should be rather breezy Monday.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY night THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Great lakes with a
west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin. One
shortwave will exit the central plains and into the mid
Mississippi Valley Wednesday.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

.Thursday and Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest. The trough has a band of
showers/thunderstorms on the GFS with the 00z ECMWF drier.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will continue most places through the day Saturday.
There could be a little fog tonight, but some increasing cloudiness
from the west and an uptick in low level winds will likely disrupt
any widespread fog from developing.

After evaluating 12Z guidance, it looks mainly dry through tomorrow
afternoon, with bulk of showers/storms holding off until evening and
overnight when the trough comes through.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will
gust as high as 20 knots Saturday and waves could approach 4 feet.
Overall though, winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the weekend.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...06




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242025
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure will slowly depart to the east tonight into Saturday
as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Diurnal
cumulus will wipe out with the loss of daytime heating late this
afternoon into the evening, with mostly clear skies expected
overnight. There could be a little fog in river valleys and other
low lying areas. Not confident in this though given the expected
gradual increase in low level winds overnight and maybe some
increase in clouds from the west later in the night.

Latest guidance has slowed the progression of the trough tomorrow,
suggesting mainly dry weather through the afternoon. Did keep a
chance for showers/storms in the west later in the afternoon as
there could be some activity on leading edge of deeper moisture.
The later trough arrival should spell more sunshine, so bumped
temps up a bit for tomorrow.

.SATURDAY NIGHT and sunday...Forecast Confidence...High

The 12z Models have slowed the progression of the upstream
mid/upper shortwave. An upper level ridge moves across the Great
Lakes as a strong shortwave moves across southern Canada from
north of the Dakotas to north of Lake Superior. Southern
Wisconsin gradually becomes in the right entrance region of the
upper jet Sunday. Upper level divergence occurs Saturday night and
continues into Sunday, especially southeast. 700 mb upward motion
increases Saturday evening south central and across the south
overnight. The upward motion weakens Sunday morning. A band of
high 850/700 mb RH moves into the forecast area Saturday night
with a 30 knot 850 mb flow. The higher RH lingers southeast until
around noon.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s with a slow decrease Sunday. GFS surface based CAPE increases
to near 3000 joules/kg south central with only a weak cap, but
CAPE is less than 1000 joules/kg far east.

The highest thunderstorm potential is Saturday evening south
central and especially Saturday night, then spreading into the
southeast late. The chance of thunderstorms continues through the
morning southeast.  GFS forecast soundings do have marginal
severe potential on NSHARP.

SUNDAY night and monday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper shortwave north of Lake Superior moves east with the
entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin. Weak
700 mb upward motion Monday. The dry wedge at 700 mb Sunay night
moistens a little Monday. the 850 mb layers moisten from the north
Monday as an 850 mb trough moves in them the north. GFS forecast
soundings show a rather strong cap above 850 mb which should
reduce any shower chances.

Winds should be rather breezy Monday.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY night THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Great lakes with a
west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin. One
shortwave will exit the central plains and into the mid
Mississippi Valley Wednesday.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

.Thursday and Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest. The trough has a band of
showers/thunderstorms on the GFS with the 00z ECMWF drier.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will continue most places through the day Saturday.
There could be a little fog tonight, but some increasing cloudiness
from the west and an uptick in low level winds will likely disrupt
any widespread fog from developing.

After evaluating 12Z guidance, it looks mainly dry through tomorrow
afternoon, with bulk of showers/storms holding off until evening and
overnight when the trough comes through.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure will
gust as high as 20 knots Saturday and waves could approach 4 feet.
Overall though, winds and waves will likely remain below Small Craft
Advisory conditions for the weekend.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...06




000
FXUS63 KARX 241953
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
253 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Currently as of 19z...water vapor loop and RAP 500mb height analysis
showed an anomalously deep trough over the Pacific Northwest, with
ridging downstream over the Dakotas and MN. This places the forecast
area in subsidence and high pressure at the surface, yielding mostly
sunny skies for most. The lone exception has been a persistent
stratus deck, the one that plagued the area yesterday, which
encompassed southeast MN in portions of northeast IA this morning.
Sunshine has helped mixed most of it out, though. Much more sun
today combined with 925mb temps near 20C has helped propel
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dewpoints have been
slowly on the rise as well with low 60s west of the MS river, with
70s streaming northward out of eastern KS and western MO.

Much of the evening looks quiet as the area remains under the
influence of high pressure. However, as the upper ridge axis crosses
the area after midnight, we see an increase of 850mb moisture
transport aiming towards us, though the best convergence on its nose
is more over northern MN. That latter location appears primed to
have convection going if not an MCS, whereas our moisture transport
may lead to just accas or some isolated shower/storm development.
Kept some 20 percent chances for this warm advection potential. Any
of this convection should keep lifting northeast during the morning
and dissipate as the nocturnal jet mixes out.

For Saturday afternoon, we have two areas of focus. The first is
with a low level moisture surge basically marching north up the MS
river. The GFS, ECMWF, Regional Canadian, 12Z NSSL WRF and 09Z ESRL
HRRR all produce some scattered shower/storm activity. This is aided
by temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to near 90, dewpoints
rising into the low to mid 70s, and a weak shortwave trough coming
through the southwest flow aloft. Have kept some 20-30 percent
chances in for this. The next concern is out west where the
anomalously deep trough marches east into the Dakotas, pushing a
cold front into MN and into the warm and humid airmass. Very good
model agreement for storms to erupt with capping breaking between 20-
21Z from Grand Rapids MN to St. Cloud and Sioux Falls SD. Since the
cold front will still reside west of I-35 at 00Z, it`s going to take
the storms cold pools to help march them eastward. Thus, models have
slowed down the storms approach to now make it look like 6-8 pm when
they move into southeast MN and northeast IA. Expect the storms to
march their way across the forecast area during the evening, pushed
along by the cold front and outflow, perhaps lingering a little bit
after midnight in the east.

On the severe weather side of things, given the increasing dewpoints
and warm temperatures, no problems expected with CAPE or CIN. Now
shear is a different story. For the most part 0-6km shear is weak,
sub 30 kt. However, there are some signs for a 30-40 kt 500mb wind
core to come out of central Nebraska at 18z and cross southeast MN
into northwest WI at 00z. If this comes to pass storms could end up
supercellular for a time with hail and damaging winds a threat. More
likely is a broken line of line segments given 0-3km shear in the 25-
30 kt range. Given this shear and a surge of precipitable water
around 2 inches to aid in heavy rain rates and cold pool, would
think strong to damaging wind would be the main threat for our
forecast area. Inflow notches will also need monitoring for
possible tornado given 0-1km shear climbing into the 25-35 kt
range in the evening. Overall highest shear forecast, and most
coverage of severe weather, expected in northwest WI where SPC day
2 enhanced is depicted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Sunday through Monday on tap to be breezy days across the region as
the anomalously deep trough moves into the northern Great Lakes
and northern Ontario. Sunday still looks on the warm side with
925mb temps in the 23-26C range, perhaps about 1C cooler than
Saturday. However, drier air coming in will make it feel much less
humid. Secondary cold front associated with the deep trough slated
to come through Sunday night to usher in much cooler air for
Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s. Despite the cooler air,
still looking at dry conditions with any cyclonic flow showers
expected farther to the northeast in Upper MI.

For the rest of next week, it`s looking very quiet across the area.
The upper level flow features the summer heat ridge retrograding to
the western U.S., setting up a fairly amplified northwest flow
pattern in the eastern U.s.. This means a seasonably cool and dry
air flow out of Canada. Coolest time period looks to be Monday night
where our typical cold spots could hit the mid 40s as Canadian high
pressure builds in. The only feature really of interest is a cold
front dropping into the area Thursday through Friday, which is the
next chance of showers and storms after Saturday night. Still, given
meager moisture in the northwest flow only produced from
evapotranspiration, kept chances around 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Stubborn mvfr stratus field across portions of northeast
IA/southeast MN showing signs of mixing/scattering out per latest
visible satellite loop. Thinking this stratus will scatter out by
19z. Vfr conditions then expected through the rest of the period.
Warm air advection/moisture transport overnight into Saturday
morning expected to produce an increase in mid-level clouds/bases
aoa 8kft...but any shra activity expected to stay northwest of the
KRST/KLSE taf sites.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241940
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night. Then quieter weather next week.

The large scale pattern across NOAM is composed of a strong
subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS and a
strong band of westerlies to the north. The longwave ridge
position is over the west with a trough in the east, though
amplitude is currently low. Unseasonably strong upper system
migrating eastward within the main westerlies will track across
the northern U.S. and southern Canada the few days, then a portion
of the energy within that system will dig southeast toward New
England, re-energizing the eastern NOAM upper trough. That will be
accompanied by reamplification of the western ridge, and result in
the reformation of a closed upper anticyclone over the
Intermountain West.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, fall back to a
little below seasonal normal early next week, then warm back close
to seasonal normals for the latter part of the period. The main
precipitation event will be Saturday night, and amounts for the
next week will depend primarily on what occurs then. The
developing northwest upper flow during the middle to latter part
of the forecast period will probably result in just scattered
light amounts.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast focus to be on Saturday afternoon as an approaching
cold front runs into an unstable air mass over WI. The biggest
issue is trying to determine where the main crux of thunderstorms
will be late in the day and whether any of these storms to be
severe.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest Lower Michigan, with an area of low
pressure over northwest South Dakota. A broad southerly flow
existed between these two weather features across the Plains and
Midwest with rising temperatures and dew points. A warm front
stretched from the South Dakota low southeast to the Mid-MS Valley
and a cold extended from the surface low south-southwest into the
Rockies.

The area of high pressure is expected to shift east toward the
Eastern Great Lakes tonight allowing for the more pronounced
southerly wind to take over WI. While this evening should be
mostly clear, expect to see some increase in clouds (especially
over Central WI) as the warm front lifts north-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley/Midwest. Increasing WAA will not only bring more
clouds into WI later tonight, but could generate a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across western WI in the pre-dawn hours.
Tonight will also be noticeably milder than last night with min
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect the chance for showers/thunderstorms to continue across
western WI, although persistent WAA/storm movement could bring
some of this precipitation toward parts of Central/North-Central
WI Saturday morning. None of these storms would be severe. Main
focal point for additional convective activity will be along/ahead
of the eastward moving cold front that is progged to reach Central
MN by 00z Sunday. Timing/extent of this next round of
precipitation is a problem as morning showers or storms would
dissipate late Saturday morning and a cap will develop over much
of WI during the afternoon. Instability will strengthen with CAPEs
maxing out around 2500 J/KG over central WI, along with LI`s as
low as -8. Another problem is that the better shear/lift/forcing
to still be well to our north and west Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing closed upper low near Lake
Winnipeg. Latest thinking is to slow the eastward advancement of
the convection with the main show not arriving until Saturday
evening. Therefore, have kept chance pops across Central/North-
Central WI for later afternoon, but have kept the east dry. Max
temperatures should be quite warm, along with increasing humidity
through the day. Look for readings to be near 80 degrees near Lake
MI, generally mid 80s elsewhere with a few upper 80s in the
typically warmer spots of central and far northeast WI.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The severe weather potential on Saturday night is the main long
term forecast concern.

The cold front from the northern Plains will surge east Saturday
night. The latest guidance suite is perhaps a little slower to
form convection along the front when compared to previous runs,
but moves it east fairly quickly once it forms. Adjusted PoPs for
Saturday night to depict most likely timing of the storms, with
categorical 12 hours PoPs across the entire area. It`s likely
sufficient destabilization will occur Saturday to support a severe
threat at least through the evening as southwest low-level flow
ahead of the front will continue to bring additional low-level
moisture into the area in advance of the front. The upper support
is in the form of an unseasonably strong upper system, though that
will be holding back well to the west of the surface front. The
strongest deep-layer shear will also remain well behind the front.
The greatest risk of severe weather will be across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with a somewhat lower risk in the east.
The severe risk will lessen if the arrival of the storms is slower
than what is currently expected. Will need to keep alert for that
possibility, since the upper system is still way back to the west
over Washington state this afternoon.

Convection could still be exiting the east early Sunday. In the
wake of that, cold advection aloft will steepen the lapse rates
and result in deep mixing and gusty west winds. Temperatures will
probably respond well, especially as the east will be getting off
to a warm start. Went with max temperatures toward the higher edge
of the guidance envelope.

At least areas of clouds are expected to drop southeast across the
area Sunday night and Monday as a shortwave wrapping around the
southwest flank of the departing system crosses the area. The
feature could even bring a few showers to the north.

A return to northwest upper flow will result in quieter weather
for the upcoming work week. No significant changes were needed to
the extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad blend
of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon is forecast to
slowly shift east toward the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR
conditions are expected through tonight with Saturday morning.
Current cu field at 5-6KT feet will dissipate this evening, with
mid/high clouds arriving overnight as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front.
A few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon as a cold front pushes across MN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241940
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, tomorrow evening and
tomorrow night. Then quieter weather next week.

The large scale pattern across NOAM is composed of a strong
subtropical ridge stretched out across the southern CONUS and a
strong band of westerlies to the north. The longwave ridge
position is over the west with a trough in the east, though
amplitude is currently low. Unseasonably strong upper system
migrating eastward within the main westerlies will track across
the northern U.S. and southern Canada the few days, then a portion
of the energy within that system will dig southeast toward New
England, re-energizing the eastern NOAM upper trough. That will be
accompanied by reamplification of the western ridge, and result in
the reformation of a closed upper anticyclone over the
Intermountain West.

Temperatures will start out above seasonal normals, fall back to a
little below seasonal normal early next week, then warm back close
to seasonal normals for the latter part of the period. The main
precipitation event will be Saturday night, and amounts for the
next week will depend primarily on what occurs then. The
developing northwest upper flow during the middle to latter part
of the forecast period will probably result in just scattered
light amounts.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Main forecast focus to be on Saturday afternoon as an approaching
cold front runs into an unstable air mass over WI. The biggest
issue is trying to determine where the main crux of thunderstorms
will be late in the day and whether any of these storms to be
severe.

The 19z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of high pressure
centered over northwest Lower Michigan, with an area of low
pressure over northwest South Dakota. A broad southerly flow
existed between these two weather features across the Plains and
Midwest with rising temperatures and dew points. A warm front
stretched from the South Dakota low southeast to the Mid-MS Valley
and a cold extended from the surface low south-southwest into the
Rockies.

The area of high pressure is expected to shift east toward the
Eastern Great Lakes tonight allowing for the more pronounced
southerly wind to take over WI. While this evening should be
mostly clear, expect to see some increase in clouds (especially
over Central WI) as the warm front lifts north-northeast into the
Upper MS Valley/Midwest. Increasing WAA will not only bring more
clouds into WI later tonight, but could generate a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across western WI in the pre-dawn hours.
Tonight will also be noticeably milder than last night with min
temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect the chance for showers/thunderstorms to continue across
western WI, although persistent WAA/storm movement could bring
some of this precipitation toward parts of Central/North-Central
WI Saturday morning. None of these storms would be severe. Main
focal point for additional convective activity will be along/ahead
of the eastward moving cold front that is progged to reach Central
MN by 00z Sunday. Timing/extent of this next round of
precipitation is a problem as morning showers or storms would
dissipate late Saturday morning and a cap will develop over much
of WI during the afternoon. Instability will strengthen with CAPEs
maxing out around 2500 J/KG over central WI, along with LI`s as
low as -8. Another problem is that the better shear/lift/forcing
to still be well to our north and west Saturday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front and trailing closed upper low near Lake
Winnipeg. Latest thinking is to slow the eastward advancement of
the convection with the main show not arriving until Saturday
evening. Therefore, have kept chance pops across Central/North-
Central WI for later afternoon, but have kept the east dry. Max
temperatures should be quite warm, along with increasing humidity
through the day. Look for readings to be near 80 degrees near Lake
MI, generally mid 80s elsewhere with a few upper 80s in the
typically warmer spots of central and far northeast WI.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

The severe weather potential on Saturday night is the main long
term forecast concern.

The cold front from the northern Plains will surge east Saturday
night. The latest guidance suite is perhaps a little slower to
form convection along the front when compared to previous runs,
but moves it east fairly quickly once it forms. Adjusted PoPs for
Saturday night to depict most likely timing of the storms, with
categorical 12 hours PoPs across the entire area. It`s likely
sufficient destabilization will occur Saturday to support a severe
threat at least through the evening as southwest low-level flow
ahead of the front will continue to bring additional low-level
moisture into the area in advance of the front. The upper support
is in the form of an unseasonably strong upper system, though that
will be holding back well to the west of the surface front. The
strongest deep-layer shear will also remain well behind the front.
The greatest risk of severe weather will be across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with a somewhat lower risk in the east.
The severe risk will lessen if the arrival of the storms is slower
than what is currently expected. Will need to keep alert for that
possibility, since the upper system is still way back to the west
over Washington state this afternoon.

Convection could still be exiting the east early Sunday. In the
wake of that, cold advection aloft will steepen the lapse rates
and result in deep mixing and gusty west winds. Temperatures will
probably respond well, especially as the east will be getting off
to a warm start. Went with max temperatures toward the higher edge
of the guidance envelope.

At least areas of clouds are expected to drop southeast across the
area Sunday night and Monday as a shortwave wrapping around the
southwest flank of the departing system crosses the area. The
feature could even bring a few showers to the north.

A return to northwest upper flow will result in quieter weather
for the upcoming work week. No significant changes were needed to
the extended forecast initialization grids based on a broad blend
of guidance products.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon is forecast to
slowly shift east toward the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR
conditions are expected through tonight with Saturday morning.
Current cu field at 5-6KT feet will dissipate this evening, with
mid/high clouds arriving overnight as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front.
A few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon as a cold front pushes across MN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Skowronski
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241731
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the exception of some patchy morning fog early this
morning...mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high
pressure regime. A mix of progs suggests some diurnal cu
development today. As the high pressure region drifts
east...winds turn more south this afternoon with a northwest flow
aloft. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the
west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today
into tonight.

LLJ will lifting deeper moisture and instability into the
northern plains tonight will increase convection over minnesota.
Some of this convection may spill into northwest Wisconsin late
tonight including north central Wisconsin toward morning. This
debris convection from the northern plains may reduce instability
at the onset saturday as the llj begins to lean into western
Wisconsin. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on
Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead
of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms Saturday night are the main concern during this
part of the forecast.

Have categorical pops for the entire area Saturday night as a
cold front moves in from the west. By that time dew points are
expected to be in the 60s with CAPEs mostly in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and LLJ around 35 knots. SPC day 2 outlook had at least a
marginal risk of severe storms across the entire forecast area
with a slight risk in parts of central and north central
Wisconsin. It appears that Minnesota and western Wisconsin are
the more likely locations for any severe storms since instability
is forecast to decrease quickly on Saturday evening. PW values are
still forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet. Some storms may linger in far
eastern Wisconsin on Sunday morning but they should be out of the
area fairly early in the day.

There is a slight chance for showers on Sunday night and Monday in
north central Wisconsin with a mid level short wave and surface
cyclonic flow. Other than that, surface high pressure should help
to keep things dry for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance
for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin on Thursday with an
approaching cold front and mid level short wave, but models were
showing some timing differences with this so confidence level is
low regarding pops on Thursday.

High temperatures should be above normal on Sunday, but they will be
much cooler than normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday,
before it warms up again Wednesday and Thursday in return flow.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon is forecast to
slowly shift east toward the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR
conditions are expected through tonight with Saturday morning.
Current cu field at 5-6KT feet will dissipate this evening, with
mid/high clouds arriving overnight as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front.
A few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon as a cold front pushes across MN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241731
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the exception of some patchy morning fog early this
morning...mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high
pressure regime. A mix of progs suggests some diurnal cu
development today. As the high pressure region drifts
east...winds turn more south this afternoon with a northwest flow
aloft. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the
west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today
into tonight.

LLJ will lifting deeper moisture and instability into the
northern plains tonight will increase convection over minnesota.
Some of this convection may spill into northwest Wisconsin late
tonight including north central Wisconsin toward morning. This
debris convection from the northern plains may reduce instability
at the onset saturday as the llj begins to lean into western
Wisconsin. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on
Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead
of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms Saturday night are the main concern during this
part of the forecast.

Have categorical pops for the entire area Saturday night as a
cold front moves in from the west. By that time dew points are
expected to be in the 60s with CAPEs mostly in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and LLJ around 35 knots. SPC day 2 outlook had at least a
marginal risk of severe storms across the entire forecast area
with a slight risk in parts of central and north central
Wisconsin. It appears that Minnesota and western Wisconsin are
the more likely locations for any severe storms since instability
is forecast to decrease quickly on Saturday evening. PW values are
still forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet. Some storms may linger in far
eastern Wisconsin on Sunday morning but they should be out of the
area fairly early in the day.

There is a slight chance for showers on Sunday night and Monday in
north central Wisconsin with a mid level short wave and surface
cyclonic flow. Other than that, surface high pressure should help
to keep things dry for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance
for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin on Thursday with an
approaching cold front and mid level short wave, but models were
showing some timing differences with this so confidence level is
low regarding pops on Thursday.

High temperatures should be above normal on Sunday, but they will be
much cooler than normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday,
before it warms up again Wednesday and Thursday in return flow.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes this afternoon is forecast to
slowly shift east toward the Eastern Great Lakes tonight. VFR
conditions are expected through tonight with Saturday morning.
Current cu field at 5-6KT feet will dissipate this evening, with
mid/high clouds arriving overnight as showers/thunderstorms
develop to our west as WAA increases in advance of a warm front.
A few of these showers/storms may approach the RHI TAF site toward
daybreak/Saturday morning, otherwise dry conditions are expected
until later Saturday afternoon as a cold front pushes across MN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK




000
FXUS63 KARX 241709
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 4 AM, a 1018 mb surface high was centered across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The combination of light winds and clear
skies have resulted in areas of fog developing across the region.
There are even some indications from the office that some valley
fog is trying to from in the Mississippi and Root river valleys
and likely has already formed in the La Crosse river valley. The
lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in
Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona.

As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly
winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. Model
soundings suggest that we will mix up to 900 mb this afternoon.
This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around
80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal.

During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture
transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as
short wave trough approaches the area from the central and
northern Plains. Expect scattered to showers and thunderstorms to
begin to develop between 2 and 4 am Saturday morning along the
moderate to strong 900 to 700 mb frontogenetic boundary which
extends from west-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin.
With the warm cloud layer depth climbing into the 4 to 4.5 km and
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.6 inches, these
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers. While the GFS
and NAM are in agreement that the 0-1 km mean layer shear will
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg, they differ on the amount of
shear located across the region. The GFS 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear
is generally less than 20 knots. Meanwhile the NAM has its 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 40 knot range north of Interstate 90. This
seems to be an outlier when one looks at the wind shear in the
other meso models. As a result, not anticipating any severe storms
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday morning, warm air advection will cause the scattered
showers and storms to continue. With little 0-3 km and 0-6 km
shear, not anticipating any severe storms.

On Saturday afternoon, there looks to be a break in the
precipitation during the early afternoon as a cap develops
between 925 and 800 mb. This cap is by far the strongest in the
NAM where 925 mb temperatures climb into the 26 to 28C range. As a
result, any showers and storms that develop along and just ahead
of the front later in the afternoon look to be elevated. With the
deepest shear remaining more across central and southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa, expect the initial development of
showers and storms to be in the form of supercells. However as the
storms move into our area, much of the shear is located in the 0-3
km range. As as result, expect the storms to become linear. The
CAMs models suggest that there may be multiple lines of storms
which will move east through our area during the late afternoon
and evening. Even though these storms may be elevated, the
downdraft CAPES suggest that damaging winds will still be
possible. With the CAPE being skinny in both the GFS and NAM, not
anticipating hail being a main severe weather threat. With the
instability fading in the mid to late evening, expect that the
severe weather threat will be confined in the 5 PM to 10 PM range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Stubborn mvfr stratus field across portions of northeast
IA/southeast MN showing signs of mixing/scattering out per latest
visible satellite loop. Thinking this stratus will scatter out by
19z. Vfr conditions then expected through the rest of the period.
Warm air advection/moisture transport overnight into Saturday
morning expected to produce an increase in mid-level clouds/bases
aoa 8kft...but any shra activity expected to stay northwest of the
KRST/KLSE taf sites.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 241446 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
946 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Could see high clouds advect in from the west today and some
afternoon cumulus away from Lake Michigan. Otherwise, expect
mostly sunny skies under high pressure. Temperatures seem to be on
track for forecast afternoon highs, so no significant forecast
updates are expected for the remainder of the day.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR conditions will continue most places through the day
Saturday. There could be a little fog tonight, but some increasing
cloudiness from the west and an uptick in low level winds will
likely disrupt any widespread fog from developing.

Will continue to look at 12Z guidance this morning in order to
evaluate precip potential for tomorrow. At first glance, it looks
mainly dry through tomorrow afternoon, with bulk of showers/storms
holding off until evening and overnight when the trough comes
through.

&&

.MARINE...

Light northeast to east winds will veer southeast this afternoon.
South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
approach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Mid-upper level ridging and surface high pressure to bring quiet
weather to the region through tonight. Some residual low-level
moisture and weak convergence along apex of inverted surface trough
that is still nosing into the southeast CWA has produced some
stratocumulus over the southeast early this morning but the clouds
are sinking south and dissipating with the departure of the inverted
trough.

Low-level relative humidity forecasts indicate a ribbon of higher RH
will rotate around and lift northward into the CWA around the
western periphery of the departing high. GFS MOS guidance and CU
rule forecasts alone in indicating afternoon broken cumulus through
the central CWA. But the GFS forecast soundings show very dry air
above/below the very shallow saturated layer around 4k ft so will
keep the overall sky condition as scattered, though a brief period
broken cumulus not out of the question.

00Z NAM is a bit quicker and stronger with a lead vorticity maximum
moving into the state toward Saturday morning, but slower with the
850-700mb warm advection. This leads to mid-level lapse rates
sufficient to produce elevated CAPE of 1000 J/kg being acted on by
the lift with the vort max and warm advection, bringing
showers/storms into the far west before 12Z Saturday. GFS and ECMWF
soundings show a cap between 850mb and 660 mb that prevents any
elevated instability and no lift with the slower approach of lead
vorticity maxima ahead of short wave trough over eastern Montana at
12Z Saturday, so will keep area dry through 12Z Saturday.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
588DM ridge axis across WI at the outset will shift east with a
potent mid level low shifting newd into Canada from the Dakotas. A
southerly flow will draw in a warm and moist airmass. Progs send
dewpoints back into the 60s. 925 temps will reach the low or mid 20s
celsius supportive of highs in the 80s. A strengthening 850 LLJ just
to our west combined with a weak wave riding newd may lead to some
tsra across mainly the western CWA during the afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF are in pretty good agreement on this. The 850 jet leans over
the state Saturday night with better forcing proggd to our north
with srn WI situated more in the entrance region of the jet core.
The upper dynamics do increase with shortwave energy becoming a
source of vertical motion along with lower level frontal forcing as
surface/850 boundaries arrive. The models have been rather
consistent showing Saturday night being the best window for tsra
potential. The upper jet axis shifts newd on eastern periphery of
the progressive trough will enhance upper divergence Saturday night.
SWODY2 has cwa in marginal risk area and is reasonable given
expected instability in place evening into the overnight hours at
the time when best forcing comes into play. However highest CWASP
numbers are to our northwest and north. Will maintain the going
high pops.

SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 trough exits to the east in the morning. Will keep
some POPS in the se cwa during the morning as progs suggest some
lingering frontally induced shra/tsra. Warm airmass remains in
place with 925 temps in the mid 20s celsius.  Looks like a steady
wsw wind would push that warning all the way to Lake Michigan.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...High
Still looks like a warm Monday with main cool push arrives Monday
night as surface high takes hold and dominates into mid week. 925
temps are the coolest Monday night into early Tuesday with the ECMWF
showing 925 temps dropping below 10c. The GFS is a smidge warmer.
But overall this period will see 925 temps in the teens celsius. So
a quiet and cool late June pattern setting up.

THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
The surface high is proggd to shift towards the Ohio Valley with a
weak frontal boundary bringing a better chance of precip to
northern WI. At this time it looks most of our area should see
another dry day with 925 temps still in the teens celsius.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Dissipating pocket of VFR stratocumulus over
parts of the southeast should be gone by 12Z. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog
should also be gone by 13Z with morning mixing. Some indications
in the GFS model guidance of broken VFR-level cumulus developing
around 4k feet this afternoon with ribbon of low level moisture
over the central forecast area, but other models showing nothing
more than scattered diurnal cumulus. Will go with the scattered
solution. Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon.

Will hold off on any showers or thunderstorms in the forecast
through 12Z Saturday, and out of KMKE through 18Z.

MARINE...Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon. South to southeast winds
ahead of an approaching cold front will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/Hentz
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar




000
FXUS63 KARX 241141
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 4 AM, a 1018 mb surface high was centered across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The combination of light winds and clear
skies have resulted in areas of fog developing across the region.
There are even some indications from the office that some valley
fog is trying to from in the Mississippi and Root river valleys
and likely has already formed in the La Crosse river valley. The
lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in
Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona.

As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly
winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. Model
soundings suggest that we will mix up to 900 mb this afternoon.
This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around
80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal.

During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture
transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as
short wave trough approaches the area from the central and
northern Plains. Expect scattered to showers and thunderstorms to
begin to develop between 2 and 4 am Saturday morning along the
moderate to strong 900 to 700 mb frontogenetic boundary which
extends from west-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin.
With the warm cloud layer depth climbing into the 4 to 4.5 km and
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.6 inches, these
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers. While the GFS
and NAM are in agreement that the 0-1 km mean layer shear will
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg, they differ on the amount of
shear located across the region. The GFS 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear
is generally less than 20 knots. Meanwhile the NAM has its 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 40 knot range north of Interstate 90. This
seems to be an outlier when one looks at the wind shear in the
other meso models. As a result, not anticipating any severe storms
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday morning, warm air advection will cause the scattered
showers and storms to continue. With little 0-3 km and 0-6 km
shear, not anticipating any severe storms.

On Saturday afternoon, there looks to be a break in the
precipitation during the early afternoon as a cap develops
between 925 and 800 mb. This cap is by far the strongest in the
NAM where 925 mb temperatures climb into the 26 to 28C range. As a
result, any showers and storms that develop along and just ahead
of the front later in the afternoon look to be elevated. With the
deepest shear remaining more across central and southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa, expect the initial development of
showers and storms to be in the form of supercells. However as the
storms move into our area, much of the shear is located in the 0-3
km range. As as result, expect the storms to become linear. The
CAMs models suggest that there may be multiple lines of storms
which will move east through our area during the late afternoon
and evening. Even though these storms may be elevated, the
downdraft CAPES suggest that damaging winds will still be
possible. With the CAPE being skinny in both the GFS and NAM, not
anticipating hail being a main severe weather threat. With the
instability fading in the mid to late evening, expect that the
severe weather threat will be confined in the 5 PM to 10 PM range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Impressive valley fog event across the region this morning.
Somewhat rare for this time of year. But it should not last too
long as this is one of the longest days of the year. High pressure
will shift east allowing a return of southerly flow through the
day. Moisture will be somewhat limited today, so do not anticipate
much in the way of cloud cover once the fog and stratus dissipate.
VFR conditions should prevail through mid-day Saturday.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KARX 241141
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 4 AM, a 1018 mb surface high was centered across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The combination of light winds and clear
skies have resulted in areas of fog developing across the region.
There are even some indications from the office that some valley
fog is trying to from in the Mississippi and Root river valleys
and likely has already formed in the La Crosse river valley. The
lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in
Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona.

As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly
winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. Model
soundings suggest that we will mix up to 900 mb this afternoon.
This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around
80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal.

During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture
transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as
short wave trough approaches the area from the central and
northern Plains. Expect scattered to showers and thunderstorms to
begin to develop between 2 and 4 am Saturday morning along the
moderate to strong 900 to 700 mb frontogenetic boundary which
extends from west-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin.
With the warm cloud layer depth climbing into the 4 to 4.5 km and
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.6 inches, these
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers. While the GFS
and NAM are in agreement that the 0-1 km mean layer shear will
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg, they differ on the amount of
shear located across the region. The GFS 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear
is generally less than 20 knots. Meanwhile the NAM has its 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 40 knot range north of Interstate 90. This
seems to be an outlier when one looks at the wind shear in the
other meso models. As a result, not anticipating any severe storms
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday morning, warm air advection will cause the scattered
showers and storms to continue. With little 0-3 km and 0-6 km
shear, not anticipating any severe storms.

On Saturday afternoon, there looks to be a break in the
precipitation during the early afternoon as a cap develops
between 925 and 800 mb. This cap is by far the strongest in the
NAM where 925 mb temperatures climb into the 26 to 28C range. As a
result, any showers and storms that develop along and just ahead
of the front later in the afternoon look to be elevated. With the
deepest shear remaining more across central and southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa, expect the initial development of
showers and storms to be in the form of supercells. However as the
storms move into our area, much of the shear is located in the 0-3
km range. As as result, expect the storms to become linear. The
CAMs models suggest that there may be multiple lines of storms
which will move east through our area during the late afternoon
and evening. Even though these storms may be elevated, the
downdraft CAPES suggest that damaging winds will still be
possible. With the CAPE being skinny in both the GFS and NAM, not
anticipating hail being a main severe weather threat. With the
instability fading in the mid to late evening, expect that the
severe weather threat will be confined in the 5 PM to 10 PM range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Impressive valley fog event across the region this morning.
Somewhat rare for this time of year. But it should not last too
long as this is one of the longest days of the year. High pressure
will shift east allowing a return of southerly flow through the
day. Moisture will be somewhat limited today, so do not anticipate
much in the way of cloud cover once the fog and stratus dissipate.
VFR conditions should prevail through mid-day Saturday.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...MW




000
FXUS63 KGRB 241100
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the exception of some patchy morning fog early this
morning...mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high
pressure regime. A mix of progs suggests some diurnal cu
development today. As the high pressure region drifts
east...winds turn more south this afternoon with a northwest flow
aloft. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the
west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today
into tonight.

LLJ will lifting deeper moisture and instability into the
northern plains tonight will increase convection over minnesota.
Some of this convection may spill into northwest Wisconsin late
tonight including north central Wisconsin toward morning. This
debris convection from the northern plains may reduce instability
at the onset saturday as the llj begins to lean into western
Wisconsin. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on
Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead
of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms Saturday night are the main concern during this
part of the forecast.

Have categorical pops for the entire area Saturday night as a
cold front moves in from the west. By that time dew points are
expected to be in the 60s with CAPEs mostly in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and LLJ around 35 knots. SPC day 2 outlook had at least a
marginal risk of severe storms across the entire forecast area
with a slight risk in parts of central and north central
Wisconsin. It appears that Minnesota and western Wisconsin are
the more likely locations for any severe storms since instability
is forecast to decrease quickly on Saturday evening. PW values are
still forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet. Some storms may linger in far
eastern Wisconsin on Sunday morning but they should be out of the
area fairly early in the day.

There is a slight chance for showers on Sunday night and Monday in
north central Wisconsin with a mid level short wave and surface
cyclonic flow. Other than that, surface high pressure should help
to keep things dry for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance
for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin on Thursday with an
approaching cold front and mid level short wave, but models were
showing some timing differences with this so confidence level is
low regarding pops on Thursday.

High temperatures should be above normal on Sunday, but they will be
much cooler than normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday,
before it warms up again Wednesday and Thursday in return flow.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Patchy ground fog is expected to around 13z, otherwise
good flying weather is expected today into tonight with VFR
conditions and light surface winds.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 240901
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
401 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

At 4 AM, a 1018 mb surface high was centered across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. The combination of light winds and clear
skies have resulted in areas of fog developing across the region.
There are even some indications from the office that some valley
fog is trying to from in the Mississippi and Root river valleys
and likely has already formed in the La Crosse river valley. The
lowest visibilities (1/4 mile or less) are being reported in
Black River Falls, Boscobel, and Winona.

As the high pressure area drifts off to the east today, southerly
winds around 10 mph will develop across the region. Model
soundings suggest that we will mix up to 900 mb this afternoon.
This will result in the high temperatures climbing to around
80 degrees which is a couple of degrees below normal.

During the evening and early overnight, the 850 mb moisture
transport will progressively increase north of Interstate 90 as
short wave trough approaches the area from the central and
northern Plains. Expect scattered to showers and thunderstorms to
begin to develop between 2 and 4 am Saturday morning along the
moderate to strong 900 to 700 mb frontogenetic boundary which
extends from west-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin.
With the warm cloud layer depth climbing into the 4 to 4.5 km and
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.6 inches, these
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers. While the GFS
and NAM are in agreement that the 0-1 km mean layer shear will
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg, they differ on the amount of
shear located across the region. The GFS 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear
is generally less than 20 knots. Meanwhile the NAM has its 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 40 knot range north of Interstate 90. This
seems to be an outlier when one looks at the wind shear in the
other meso models. As a result, not anticipating any severe storms
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

On Saturday morning, warm air advection will cause the scattered
showers and storms to continue. With little 0-3 km and 0-6 km
shear, not anticipating any severe storms.

On Saturday afternoon, there looks to be a break in the
precipitation during the early afternoon as a cap develops
between 925 and 800 mb. This cap is by far the strongest in the
NAM where 925 mb temperatures climb into the 26 to 28C range. As a
result, any showers and storms that develop along and just ahead
of the front later in the afternoon look to be elevated. With the
deepest shear remaining more across central and southwest
Minnesota and northwest Iowa, expect the initial development of
showers and storms to be in the form of supercells. However as the
storms move into our area, much of the shear is located in the 0-3
km range. As as result, expect the storms to become linear. The
CAMs models suggest that there may be multiple lines of storms
which will move east through our area during the late afternoon
and evening. Even though these storms may be elevated, the
downdraft CAPES suggest that damaging winds will still be
possible. With the CAPE being skinny in both the GFS and NAM, not
anticipating hail being a main severe weather threat. With the
instability fading in the mid to late evening, expect that the
severe weather threat will be confined in the 5 PM to 10 PM range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

With clearing skies and winds becoming light/calm overnight as
high pressure settles over the region, focus is on fog potential
at both KRST/KLSE. Dew point depressions of 2 to 3 degrees as of
24.05Z are also favorable for fog development. As a result, added
TEMPO groups at both TAF airfields from 24.09Z to 24.12Z with LIFR
ceilings/IFR visibility. If dense fog can develop, visibility to
1/4 mile is likely, but confidence not high enough to include at
this time. Once fog dissipates Friday morning, expect mostly sunny
skies with some scattered afternoon cumulus. Winds will increase
slightly from the southeast.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Mid-upper level ridging and surface high pressure to bring quiet
weather to the region through tonight. Some residual low-level
moisture and weak convergence along apex of inverted surface trough
that is still nosing into the southeast CWA has produced some
stratocumulus over the southeast early this morning but the clouds
are sinking south and dissipating with the departure of the inverted
trough.

Low-level relative humidity forecasts indicate a ribbon of higher RH
will rotate around and lift northward into the CWA around the
western periphery of the departing high. GFS MOS guidance and CU
rule forecasts alone in indicating afternoon broken cumulus through
the central CWA. But the GFS forecast soundings show very dry air
above/below the very shallow saturated layer around 4k ft so will
keep the overall sky condition as scattered, though a brief period
broken cumulus not out of the question.

00Z NAM is a bit quicker and stronger with a lead vorticity maximum
moving into the state toward Saturday morning, but slower with the
850-700mb warm advection. This leads to mid-level lapse rates
sufficient to produce elevated CAPE of 1000 J/kg being acted on by
the lift with the vort max and warm advection, bringing
showers/storms into the far west before 12Z Saturday. GFS and ECMWF
soundings show a cap between 850mb and 660 mb that prevents any
elevated instability and no lift with the slower approach of lead
vorticity maxima ahead of short wave trough over eastern Montana at
12Z Saturday, so will keep area dry through 12Z Saturday.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
588DM ridge axis across WI at the outset will shift east with a
potent mid level low shifting newd into Canada from the Dakotas. A
southerly flow will draw in a warm and moist airmass. Progs send
dewpoints back into the 60s. 925 temps will reach the low or mid 20s
celsius supportive of highs in the 80s. A strengthening 850 LLJ just
to our west combined with a weak wave riding newd may lead to some
tsra across mainly the western CWA during the afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF are in pretty good agreement on this. The 850 jet leans over
the state Saturday night with better forcing proggd to our north
with srn WI situated more in the entrance region of the jet core.
The upper dynamics do increase with shortwave energy becoming a
source of vertical motion along with lower level frontal forcing as
surface/850 boundaries arrive. The models have been rather
consistent showing Saturday night being the best window for tsra
potential. The upper jet axis shifts newd on eastern periphery of
the progressive trough will enhance upper divergence Saturday night.
SWODY2 has cwa in marginal risk area and is reasonable given
expected instability in place evening into the overnight hours at
the time when best forcing comes into play. However highest CWASP
numbers are to our northwest and north. Will maintain the going
high pops.

.SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 trough exits to the east in the morning. Will keep
some POPS in the se cwa during the morning as progs suggest some
lingering frontally induced shra/tsra. Warm airmass remains in
place with 925 temps in the mid 20s celsius.  Looks like a steady
wsw wind would push that warning all the way to Lake Michigan.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...High
Still looks like a warm Monday with main cool push arrives Monday
night as surface high takes hold and dominates into mid week. 925
temps are the coolest Monday night into early Tuesday with the ECMWF
showing 925 temps dropping below 10c. The GFS is a smidge warmer.
But overall this period will see 925 temps in the teens celsius. So
a quiet and cool late June pattern setting up.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
The surface high is proggd to shift towards the Ohio Valley with a
weak frontal boundary bringing a better chance of precip to
northern WI. At this time it looks most of our area should see
another dry day with 925 temps still in the teens celsius.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Dissipating pocket of VFR stratocumulus over
parts of the southeast should be gone by 12Z. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog
should also be gone by 13Z with morning mixing. Some indications
in the GFS model guidance of broken VFR-level cumulus developing
around 4k feet this afternoon with ribbon of low level moisture
over the central forecast area, but other models showing nothing
more than scattered diurnal cumulus. Will go with the scattered
solution. Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon.

Will hold off on any showers or thunderstorms in the forecast
through 12Z Saturday, and out of KMKE through 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon. South to southeast winds
ahead of an approaching cold front will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Mid-upper level ridging and surface high pressure to bring quiet
weather to the region through tonight. Some residual low-level
moisture and weak convergence along apex of inverted surface trough
that is still nosing into the southeast CWA has produced some
stratocumulus over the southeast early this morning but the clouds
are sinking south and dissipating with the departure of the inverted
trough.

Low-level relative humidity forecasts indicate a ribbon of higher RH
will rotate around and lift northward into the CWA around the
western periphery of the departing high. GFS MOS guidance and CU
rule forecasts alone in indicating afternoon broken cumulus through
the central CWA. But the GFS forecast soundings show very dry air
above/below the very shallow saturated layer around 4k ft so will
keep the overall sky condition as scattered, though a brief period
broken cumulus not out of the question.

00Z NAM is a bit quicker and stronger with a lead vorticity maximum
moving into the state toward Saturday morning, but slower with the
850-700mb warm advection. This leads to mid-level lapse rates
sufficient to produce elevated CAPE of 1000 J/kg being acted on by
the lift with the vort max and warm advection, bringing
showers/storms into the far west before 12Z Saturday. GFS and ECMWF
soundings show a cap between 850mb and 660 mb that prevents any
elevated instability and no lift with the slower approach of lead
vorticity maxima ahead of short wave trough over eastern Montana at
12Z Saturday, so will keep area dry through 12Z Saturday.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium
588DM ridge axis across WI at the outset will shift east with a
potent mid level low shifting newd into Canada from the Dakotas. A
southerly flow will draw in a warm and moist airmass. Progs send
dewpoints back into the 60s. 925 temps will reach the low or mid 20s
celsius supportive of highs in the 80s. A strengthening 850 LLJ just
to our west combined with a weak wave riding newd may lead to some
tsra across mainly the western CWA during the afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF are in pretty good agreement on this. The 850 jet leans over
the state Saturday night with better forcing proggd to our north
with srn WI situated more in the entrance region of the jet core.
The upper dynamics do increase with shortwave energy becoming a
source of vertical motion along with lower level frontal forcing as
surface/850 boundaries arrive. The models have been rather
consistent showing Saturday night being the best window for tsra
potential. The upper jet axis shifts newd on eastern periphery of
the progressive trough will enhance upper divergence Saturday night.
SWODY2 has cwa in marginal risk area and is reasonable given
expected instability in place evening into the overnight hours at
the time when best forcing comes into play. However highest CWASP
numbers are to our northwest and north. Will maintain the going
high pops.

.SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium
Surface/850 trough exits to the east in the morning. Will keep
some POPS in the se cwa during the morning as progs suggest some
lingering frontally induced shra/tsra. Warm airmass remains in
place with 925 temps in the mid 20s celsius.  Looks like a steady
wsw wind would push that warning all the way to Lake Michigan.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...High
Still looks like a warm Monday with main cool push arrives Monday
night as surface high takes hold and dominates into mid week. 925
temps are the coolest Monday night into early Tuesday with the ECMWF
showing 925 temps dropping below 10c. The GFS is a smidge warmer.
But overall this period will see 925 temps in the teens celsius. So
a quiet and cool late June pattern setting up.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
The surface high is proggd to shift towards the Ohio Valley with a
weak frontal boundary bringing a better chance of precip to
northern WI. At this time it looks most of our area should see
another dry day with 925 temps still in the teens celsius.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Dissipating pocket of VFR stratocumulus over
parts of the southeast should be gone by 12Z. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog
should also be gone by 13Z with morning mixing. Some indications
in the GFS model guidance of broken VFR-level cumulus developing
around 4k feet this afternoon with ribbon of low level moisture
over the central forecast area, but other models showing nothing
more than scattered diurnal cumulus. Will go with the scattered
solution. Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon.

Will hold off on any showers or thunderstorms in the forecast
through 12Z Saturday, and out of KMKE through 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Light north to northeast winds will veer east this
morning then southeast this afternoon. South to southeast winds
ahead of an approaching cold front will approach Small Craft
Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240830
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the exception of some patchy morning fog early this
morning...mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high
pressure regime. A mix of progs suggests some diurnal cu
development today. As the high pressure region drifts
east...winds turn more south this afternoon with a northwest flow
aloft. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the
west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today
into tonight.

LLJ will lifting deeper moisture and instability into the
northern plains tonight will increase convection over minnesota.
Some of this convection may spill into northwest Wisconsin late
tonight including north central Wisconsin toward morning. This
debris convection from the northern plains may reduce instability
at the onset saturday as the llj begins to lean into western
Wisconsin. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on
Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead
of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms Saturday night are the main concern during this
part of the forecast.

Have categorical pops for the entire area Saturday night as a
cold front moves in from the west. By that time dew points are
expected to be in the 60s with CAPEs mostly in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and LLJ around 35 knots. SPC day 2 outlook had at least a
marginal risk of severe storms across the entire forecast area
with a slight risk in parts of central and north central
Wisconsin. It appears that Minnesota and western Wisconsin are
the more likely locations for any severe storms since instability
is forecast to decrease quickly on Saturday evening. PW values are
still forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet. Some storms may linger in far
eastern Wisconsin on Sunday morning but they should be out of the
area fairly early in the day.

There is a slight chance for showers on Sunday night and Monday in
north central Wisconsin with a mid level short wave and surface
cyclonic flow. Other than that, surface high pressure should help
to keep things dry for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance
for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin on Thursday with an
approaching cold front and mid level short wave, but models were
showing some timing differences with this so confidence level is
low regarding pops on Thursday.

High temperatures should be above normal on Sunday, but they will be
much cooler than normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday,
before it warms up again Wednesday and Thursday in return flow.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Patchy ground fog is possible in northern and central
Wisconsin late tonight. Good flying weather expected Friday with
VFR conditions and light surface winds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240830
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the exception of some patchy morning fog early this
morning...mainly mostly sunny skies expected today under a high
pressure regime. A mix of progs suggests some diurnal cu
development today. As the high pressure region drifts
east...winds turn more south this afternoon with a northwest flow
aloft. Best return flow and returned instability will lie to the
west as a short wave trough drops into the northern plains today
into tonight.

LLJ will lifting deeper moisture and instability into the
northern plains tonight will increase convection over minnesota.
Some of this convection may spill into northwest Wisconsin late
tonight including north central Wisconsin toward morning. This
debris convection from the northern plains may reduce instability
at the onset saturday as the llj begins to lean into western
Wisconsin. Will continue with the trend with ramping up pops on
Saturday as pwats and instability will be on the increase ahead
of a cold front and dry slot over the northern plains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Thunderstorms Saturday night are the main concern during this
part of the forecast.

Have categorical pops for the entire area Saturday night as a
cold front moves in from the west. By that time dew points are
expected to be in the 60s with CAPEs mostly in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and LLJ around 35 knots. SPC day 2 outlook had at least a
marginal risk of severe storms across the entire forecast area
with a slight risk in parts of central and north central
Wisconsin. It appears that Minnesota and western Wisconsin are
the more likely locations for any severe storms since instability
is forecast to decrease quickly on Saturday evening. PW values are
still forecast to be in the neighborhood of 2 inches, so heavy
rainfall is a pretty good bet. Some storms may linger in far
eastern Wisconsin on Sunday morning but they should be out of the
area fairly early in the day.

There is a slight chance for showers on Sunday night and Monday in
north central Wisconsin with a mid level short wave and surface
cyclonic flow. Other than that, surface high pressure should help
to keep things dry for much of the upcoming week. There is a chance
for thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin on Thursday with an
approaching cold front and mid level short wave, but models were
showing some timing differences with this so confidence level is
low regarding pops on Thursday.

High temperatures should be above normal on Sunday, but they will be
much cooler than normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday,
before it warms up again Wednesday and Thursday in return flow.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Patchy ground fog is possible in northern and central
Wisconsin late tonight. Good flying weather expected Friday with
VFR conditions and light surface winds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KARX 240452
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main forecast concerns are on cloud trends tonight and the potential
for some patchy dense fog.

High pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight hours.  Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as
cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they
will be stubborn to clear though.  With the cloudy skies across much
of the areas today limiting mixing, temperature/dew point spreads
will be rather low.  This combined with the clearing skies should
lead to radiational fog which could be locally dense in spots.
Thinking areas that received heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours
would be most susceptible to the fog.

Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on
Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night
as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front
approach from the west. 850 MB moisture transport increases across
the area and we should see some elevated thunderstorms develop
Friday night along this moisture transport. NAM forecast soundings
suggest elevated CAPE of around 2000 J/kg when lifting from 850 MB.
If this moisture is real in the model we may see some stronger
storms develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.  These
would be capable of heavy downpours and possibly some hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A warm and muggy airmass will be in place across the region on
Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A few
showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing through the day, mainly
north of interstate 90. We should see a break in the activity from
late morning through about mid afternoon. Then more thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the cold front near the Interstate 35
corridor. Before more storms move in late in the day, we should see
highs climb into mid to upper 80s. With dew point values in the
upper 60s to around 70 making it feel on the humid side.  Showers
and storms are then expected to move into areas along and west of
the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. These storms then look to spread east into western and
central Wisconsin during the evening hours. Afternoon surface bases
CAPE values look to climb to around 2000 J/kg. Initially shear is
fairly weak but then is expected to increase through the afternoon
hours into the evening, mainly in the 0-3 km layer. 0-3 km bulk
shear values look to increase to around 25 to 30 kts.  We are
expecting multicell storms with the potential for a few line
segments. Main threats look to be damaging winds, perhaps some large
hail, and heavy downpours. Shear values look stronger over northwest
Wisconsin and much of the guidance is convecting in this area.
The thunderstorms will then sweep through the area from west to
east across the area through the evening hours and exit overnight.

Breezy westerly winds are expected across the region on Sunday in
the wake of the cold front. It looks to be another warm day with
drier dew points in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air then moves in for
Monday with highs falling back into the 70s to around 80. Dry and
pleasant weather looks to be the rule for much of next week with
northwesterly flow in place. Highs temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

With clearing skies and winds becoming light/calm overnight as
high pressure settles over the region, focus is on fog potential
at both KRST/KLSE. Dew point depressions of 2 to 3 degrees as of
24.05Z are also favorable for fog development. As a result, added
TEMPO groups at both TAF airfields from 24.09Z to 24.12Z with LIFR
ceilings/IFR visibility. If dense fog can develop, visibility to
1/4 mile is likely, but confidence not high enough to include at
this time. Once fog dissipates Friday morning, expect mostly sunny
skies with some scattered afternoon cumulus. Winds will increase
slightly from the southeast.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 240352
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1052 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
shortwave trough gliding over northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon.  The combination of this shortwave and a pesky inverted
trough, which runs into central WI, is producing widely scattered
showers and mostly cloudy conditions.  These features have been
slowly moving, but generally drifting southward so far today.
Think these showers will dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Looking
upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move
into the region late tonight.  Cloud trends and temps are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Tonight...Weak shortwave will exit northeast Wisconsin late in the
evening or overnight.  Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will
gradually slide south into southern WI.  Some guidance is slower
than others in bringing in clearing from the north. Based on
satellite and model trends, have slowed the clearing into mid to
late evening.  Then should have mostly clear skies and light winds,
which could lead to patchy fog developing over north-central WI
late.  Lows falling into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Friday...High pressure will be centered across the region.  Should
see some cu pop by late morning, but otherwise, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should prevail.  Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main fcst concern will be pcpn trends and severe weather
potential over the weekend.

Developing return flow will bring elevated instability back into
the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, so will
continue to mention a chance of elevated tstms over north central
WI late Friday night, and expand the chance eastward to just west
of the Fox Valley Saturday morning.

Have ramped pops up to likely over parts of central and north
central WI late in the afternoon, when CAPE is expected to build
to 1000-2000 j/kg and a 30-35 kt LLJ will be focused on the area.
Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for organized
storms. Strong to locally severe tstms are possible in our western
counties late Saturday afternoon, with the threat spreading east
but gradually waning during the evening. SPC has our western
counties in a SLGT risk, with a marginal risk across the rest of
the CWA.

A 35-45 kt LLJ is expected to develop ahead of the advancing cold
front Saturday night, resulting in a surge of significant
moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. In addition
to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall appears likely, and
several models (especially the GFS) have ramped up QPF amounts.

Models are still in good agreement with the timing of the cold
front, with both the ECMWF and GFS shifting it east of the region
Sunday morning. Have opted to go with a dry forecast on Sunday,
with decreasing clouds anticipated from northwest to southeast.

Northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid conditions for
the first half of the next work week. Although there may be a few
showers over northern WI Sunday night and Monday, most of the
region will have dry weather through midweek, under the influence
of Canadian high pressure. As the high shifts south on Thursday,
moisture and instability will return ahead of a weak cold front,
leading to a chance of tstms over mainly northern WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Patchy ground fog is possible in northern and central
Wisconsin late tonight. Good flying weather expected Friday with
VFR conditions and light surface winds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240140
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
840 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Moisture/clouds remain trapped within the weak flow under the
surface high pressure over the area. Confidence isn`t very high on
their behavior, but much of the guidance wants to eventually
diminish most this stuff tonight. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
a fair amount of it still around at sunrise, but then mixing out
shortly thereafter. Other than some tweaks in the cloud cover and
temps, no big updates this evening.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

The VFR clouds across the area will be tough to clear tonight
given the weak flow environment. Some areas will clear, while
others may fill back in. That`s the nature of these clouds.
The larger clearing trend looks to wait until around sunrise on
Friday, but confidence on clouds trends is rather low. The cigs
should remain VFR, but a brief period of MVFR cigs around 3kft
can`t be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain low tonight into Friday night, with
high pressure over the region.

South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

500 mb vorticity maximum is expected to continue to slide across
northeast and east central Wisconsin into early this evening. In
addition, an inverted surface trough will continue to slide
southward through the southwest parts of the area.

These features, combined with some low level moisture per area
forecast soundings, will continue to bring isolated showers to the
area until around sunset.

High pressure moving slowly across the region tonight into Friday
will bring quiet weather to the area. The clouds may linger into
tonight for a time, as area forecast soundings hold onto low level
moisture below the inversion. Thus, it may end up cloudier later
tonight than currently forecast. Light winds may allow for light fog
to form in low lying areas.

After cool lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, highs Friday should
rise into the lower 80s well inland. Cooler temperatures near the
lake are expected with onshore winds.

friday night through SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence...High

An upper level ridge across Wisconsin friday night moves into the
Great lakes Region Saturday as a strong shortwave moves across the
Northern Plains and southern Canada. Upper level divergence begins
Saturday evening. 700 mb upward motion increases Saturday but is
rather weak until Saturday night when the upward motion increases.
850/700 mb levels warm. A band of high 850/700 mb RH moves across
the forecast area Saturday night with a 30 to 35 knot 850 mb flow.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s. GFS surface based CAPE increases to near 3000 joules/kg south
central with only a weak cap, but CAPE is less than 1000
joules/kg southeast.

Have focused the highest thunderstorm potential beginning
Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. GFS forecast
soundings do have marginal severe potential on NSHARP.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper low northeast of Lake Superior lifts northeast with the
right entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin.
Weak upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion. By 10 am
the dry wedge at 700 mb affects the entire forecast area. the 850
mb layers moisten a little north areas late, but the stratocumulus
shield is expected to stay to the north closer to the mid level
low.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Upper Great lakes with
a west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

Thursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR to VFR category ceilings should linger into tonight across the
area. Any lingering showers will slowly diminish by sunset.
Northeast to east winds will become northeast by early evening and
weaken.

High pressure moving across the region tonight into Friday will
bring quiet weather to the area. There is uncertainty with how long
the clouds will linger tonight into Friday morning, and if they will
become lower. For now, will use a gradual weakening trend with the
clouds later tonight, but may linger into Friday morning.

In addition, some light fog is possible in low areas later tonight
into Friday morning. Left mention out of TAFs for now. Winds will be
light and northeasterly later tonight, then light and easterly on
Friday.

MARINE...

Northeast winds may gust up to 20 knots into early evening, until
the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds and waves should remain light
tonight into Friday night, with high pressure over the region.

South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Hentz




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240140
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
840 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Moisture/clouds remain trapped within the weak flow under the
surface high pressure over the area. Confidence isn`t very high on
their behavior, but much of the guidance wants to eventually
diminish most this stuff tonight. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
a fair amount of it still around at sunrise, but then mixing out
shortly thereafter. Other than some tweaks in the cloud cover and
temps, no big updates this evening.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

The VFR clouds across the area will be tough to clear tonight
given the weak flow environment. Some areas will clear, while
others may fill back in. That`s the nature of these clouds.
The larger clearing trend looks to wait until around sunrise on
Friday, but confidence on clouds trends is rather low. The cigs
should remain VFR, but a brief period of MVFR cigs around 3kft
can`t be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain low tonight into Friday night, with
high pressure over the region.

South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

500 mb vorticity maximum is expected to continue to slide across
northeast and east central Wisconsin into early this evening. In
addition, an inverted surface trough will continue to slide
southward through the southwest parts of the area.

These features, combined with some low level moisture per area
forecast soundings, will continue to bring isolated showers to the
area until around sunset.

High pressure moving slowly across the region tonight into Friday
will bring quiet weather to the area. The clouds may linger into
tonight for a time, as area forecast soundings hold onto low level
moisture below the inversion. Thus, it may end up cloudier later
tonight than currently forecast. Light winds may allow for light fog
to form in low lying areas.

After cool lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, highs Friday should
rise into the lower 80s well inland. Cooler temperatures near the
lake are expected with onshore winds.

friday night through SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence...High

An upper level ridge across Wisconsin friday night moves into the
Great lakes Region Saturday as a strong shortwave moves across the
Northern Plains and southern Canada. Upper level divergence begins
Saturday evening. 700 mb upward motion increases Saturday but is
rather weak until Saturday night when the upward motion increases.
850/700 mb levels warm. A band of high 850/700 mb RH moves across
the forecast area Saturday night with a 30 to 35 knot 850 mb flow.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s. GFS surface based CAPE increases to near 3000 joules/kg south
central with only a weak cap, but CAPE is less than 1000
joules/kg southeast.

Have focused the highest thunderstorm potential beginning
Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. GFS forecast
soundings do have marginal severe potential on NSHARP.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper low northeast of Lake Superior lifts northeast with the
right entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin.
Weak upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion. By 10 am
the dry wedge at 700 mb affects the entire forecast area. the 850
mb layers moisten a little north areas late, but the stratocumulus
shield is expected to stay to the north closer to the mid level
low.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Upper Great lakes with
a west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

Thursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR to VFR category ceilings should linger into tonight across the
area. Any lingering showers will slowly diminish by sunset.
Northeast to east winds will become northeast by early evening and
weaken.

High pressure moving across the region tonight into Friday will
bring quiet weather to the area. There is uncertainty with how long
the clouds will linger tonight into Friday morning, and if they will
become lower. For now, will use a gradual weakening trend with the
clouds later tonight, but may linger into Friday morning.

In addition, some light fog is possible in low areas later tonight
into Friday morning. Left mention out of TAFs for now. Winds will be
light and northeasterly later tonight, then light and easterly on
Friday.

MARINE...

Northeast winds may gust up to 20 knots into early evening, until
the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds and waves should remain light
tonight into Friday night, with high pressure over the region.

South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...Hentz




000
FXUS63 KARX 232320
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main forecast concerns are on cloud trends tonight and the potential
for some patchy dense fog.

High pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight hours.  Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as
cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they
will be stubborn to clear though.  With the cloudy skies across much
of the areas today limiting mixing, temperature/dew point spreads
will be rather low.  This combined with the clearing skies should
lead to radiational fog which could be locally dense in spots.
Thinking areas that received heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours
would be most susceptible to the fog.

Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on
Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night
as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front
approach from the west. 850 MB moisture transport increases across
the area and we should see some elevated thunderstorms develop
Friday night along this moisture transport. NAM forecast soundings
suggest elevated CAPE of around 2000 J/kg when lifting from 850 MB.
If this moisture is real in the model we may see some stronger
storms develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.  These
would be capable of heavy downpours and possibly some hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A warm and muggy airmass will be in place across the region on
Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A few
showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing through the day, mainly
north of interstate 90. We should see a break in the activity from
late morning through about mid afternoon. Then more thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the cold front near the Interstate 35
corridor. Before more storms move in late in the day, we should see
highs climb into mid to upper 80s. With dew point values in the
upper 60s to around 70 making it feel on the humid side.  Showers
and storms are then expected to move into areas along and west of
the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. These storms then look to spread east into western and
central Wisconsin during the evening hours. Afternoon surface bases
CAPE values look to climb to around 2000 J/kg. Initially shear is
fairly weak but then is expected to increase through the afternoon
hours into the evening, mainly in the 0-3 km layer. 0-3 km bulk
shear values look to increase to around 25 to 30 kts.  We are
expecting multicell storms with the potential for a few line
segments. Main threats look to be damaging winds, perhaps some large
hail, and heavy downpours. Shear values look stronger over northwest
Wisconsin and much of the guidance is convecting in this area.
The thunderstorms will then sweep through the area from west to
east across the area through the evening hours and exit overnight.

Breezy westerly winds are expected across the region on Sunday in
the wake of the cold front. It looks to be another warm day with
drier dew points in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air then moves in for
Monday with highs falling back into the 70s to around 80. Dry and
pleasant weather looks to be the rule for much of next week with
northwesterly flow in place. Highs temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

MVFR stratus deck will slowly erode early this evening, with
scattered to clear skies into the overnight hours. Still watching
the potential for reduced visibility in fog starting around
24.08Z given the potential for clear skies and light/variable
wind. Lower confidence precludes mention in 24.00Z TAFs, but will
continue to hint at the idea with 3SM/SCT003 at both TAF airfields
from 24.08Z through 24.12Z. Light north wind this evening will
become variable overnight and then shift to the southeast on
Friday.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 232320
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main forecast concerns are on cloud trends tonight and the potential
for some patchy dense fog.

High pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight hours.  Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as
cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they
will be stubborn to clear though.  With the cloudy skies across much
of the areas today limiting mixing, temperature/dew point spreads
will be rather low.  This combined with the clearing skies should
lead to radiational fog which could be locally dense in spots.
Thinking areas that received heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours
would be most susceptible to the fog.

Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on
Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night
as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front
approach from the west. 850 MB moisture transport increases across
the area and we should see some elevated thunderstorms develop
Friday night along this moisture transport. NAM forecast soundings
suggest elevated CAPE of around 2000 J/kg when lifting from 850 MB.
If this moisture is real in the model we may see some stronger
storms develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.  These
would be capable of heavy downpours and possibly some hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A warm and muggy airmass will be in place across the region on
Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A few
showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing through the day, mainly
north of interstate 90. We should see a break in the activity from
late morning through about mid afternoon. Then more thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the cold front near the Interstate 35
corridor. Before more storms move in late in the day, we should see
highs climb into mid to upper 80s. With dew point values in the
upper 60s to around 70 making it feel on the humid side.  Showers
and storms are then expected to move into areas along and west of
the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. These storms then look to spread east into western and
central Wisconsin during the evening hours. Afternoon surface bases
CAPE values look to climb to around 2000 J/kg. Initially shear is
fairly weak but then is expected to increase through the afternoon
hours into the evening, mainly in the 0-3 km layer. 0-3 km bulk
shear values look to increase to around 25 to 30 kts.  We are
expecting multicell storms with the potential for a few line
segments. Main threats look to be damaging winds, perhaps some large
hail, and heavy downpours. Shear values look stronger over northwest
Wisconsin and much of the guidance is convecting in this area.
The thunderstorms will then sweep through the area from west to
east across the area through the evening hours and exit overnight.

Breezy westerly winds are expected across the region on Sunday in
the wake of the cold front. It looks to be another warm day with
drier dew points in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air then moves in for
Monday with highs falling back into the 70s to around 80. Dry and
pleasant weather looks to be the rule for much of next week with
northwesterly flow in place. Highs temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

MVFR stratus deck will slowly erode early this evening, with
scattered to clear skies into the overnight hours. Still watching
the potential for reduced visibility in fog starting around
24.08Z given the potential for clear skies and light/variable
wind. Lower confidence precludes mention in 24.00Z TAFs, but will
continue to hint at the idea with 3SM/SCT003 at both TAF airfields
from 24.08Z through 24.12Z. Light north wind this evening will
become variable overnight and then shift to the southeast on
Friday.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 232232
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
shortwave trough gliding over northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon.  The combination of this shortwave and a pesky inverted
trough, which runs into central WI, is producing widely scattered
showers and mostly cloudy conditions.  These features have been
slowly moving, but generally drifting southward so far today.
Think these showers will dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Looking
upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move
into the region late tonight.  Cloud trends and temps are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Tonight...Weak shortwave will exit northeast Wisconsin late in the
evening or overnight.  Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will
gradually slide south into southern WI.  Some guidance is slower
than others in bringing in clearing from the north. Based on
satellite and model trends, have slowed the clearing into mid to
late evening.  Then should have mostly clear skies and light winds,
which could lead to patchy fog developing over north-central WI
late.  Lows falling into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Friday...High pressure will be centered across the region.  Should
see some cu pop by late morning, but otherwise, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should prevail.  Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main fcst concern will be pcpn trends and severe weather
potential over the weekend.

Developing return flow will bring elevated instability back into
the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, so will
continue to mention a chance of elevated tstms over north central
WI late Friday night, and expand the chance eastward to just west
of the Fox Valley Saturday morning.

Have ramped pops up to likely over parts of central and north
central WI late in the afternoon, when CAPE is expected to build
to 1000-2000 j/kg and a 30-35 kt LLJ will be focused on the area.
Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for organized
storms. Strong to locally severe tstms are possible in our western
counties late Saturday afternoon, with the threat spreading east
but gradually waning during the evening. SPC has our western
counties in a SLGT risk, with a marginal risk across the rest of
the CWA.

A 35-45 kt LLJ is expected to develop ahead of the advancing cold
front Saturday night, resulting in a surge of significant
moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. In addition
to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall appears likely, and
several models (especially the GFS) have ramped up QPF amounts.

Models are still in good agreement with the timing of the cold
front, with both the ECMWF and GFS shifting it east of the region
Sunday morning. Have opted to go with a dry forecast on Sunday,
with decreasing clouds anticipated from northwest to southeast.

Northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid conditions for
the first half of the next work week. Although there may be a few
showers over northern WI Sunday night and Monday, most of the
region will have dry weather through midweek, under the influence
of Canadian high pressure. As the high shifts south on Thursday,
moisture and instability will return ahead of a weak cold front,
leading to a chance of tstms over mainly northern WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 532 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

middle clouds will exit central Wisconsin by late
evening with clear skies later tonight. Patchy ground fog is
possible in northern and central Wisconsin where it has recently
rained. Good flying weather expected Friday with VFR conditions
and light surface winds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 232232
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
shortwave trough gliding over northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon.  The combination of this shortwave and a pesky inverted
trough, which runs into central WI, is producing widely scattered
showers and mostly cloudy conditions.  These features have been
slowly moving, but generally drifting southward so far today.
Think these showers will dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Looking
upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move
into the region late tonight.  Cloud trends and temps are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Tonight...Weak shortwave will exit northeast Wisconsin late in the
evening or overnight.  Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will
gradually slide south into southern WI.  Some guidance is slower
than others in bringing in clearing from the north. Based on
satellite and model trends, have slowed the clearing into mid to
late evening.  Then should have mostly clear skies and light winds,
which could lead to patchy fog developing over north-central WI
late.  Lows falling into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Friday...High pressure will be centered across the region.  Should
see some cu pop by late morning, but otherwise, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should prevail.  Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main fcst concern will be pcpn trends and severe weather
potential over the weekend.

Developing return flow will bring elevated instability back into
the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, so will
continue to mention a chance of elevated tstms over north central
WI late Friday night, and expand the chance eastward to just west
of the Fox Valley Saturday morning.

Have ramped pops up to likely over parts of central and north
central WI late in the afternoon, when CAPE is expected to build
to 1000-2000 j/kg and a 30-35 kt LLJ will be focused on the area.
Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for organized
storms. Strong to locally severe tstms are possible in our western
counties late Saturday afternoon, with the threat spreading east
but gradually waning during the evening. SPC has our western
counties in a SLGT risk, with a marginal risk across the rest of
the CWA.

A 35-45 kt LLJ is expected to develop ahead of the advancing cold
front Saturday night, resulting in a surge of significant
moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. In addition
to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall appears likely, and
several models (especially the GFS) have ramped up QPF amounts.

Models are still in good agreement with the timing of the cold
front, with both the ECMWF and GFS shifting it east of the region
Sunday morning. Have opted to go with a dry forecast on Sunday,
with decreasing clouds anticipated from northwest to southeast.

Northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid conditions for
the first half of the next work week. Although there may be a few
showers over northern WI Sunday night and Monday, most of the
region will have dry weather through midweek, under the influence
of Canadian high pressure. As the high shifts south on Thursday,
moisture and instability will return ahead of a weak cold front,
leading to a chance of tstms over mainly northern WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 532 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

middle clouds will exit central Wisconsin by late
evening with clear skies later tonight. Patchy ground fog is
possible in northern and central Wisconsin where it has recently
rained. Good flying weather expected Friday with VFR conditions
and light surface winds.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......RDM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 232034
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
334 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

500 mb vorticity maximum is expected to continue to slide across
northeast and east central Wisconsin into early this evening. In
addition, an inverted surface trough will continue to slide
southward through the southwest parts of the area.

These features, combined with some low level moisture per area
forecast soundings, will continue to bring isolated showers to the
area until around sunset.

High pressure moving slowly across the region tonight into Friday
will bring quiet weather to the area. The clouds may linger into
tonight for a time, as area forecast soundings hold onto low level
moisture below the inversion. Thus, it may end up cloudier later
tonight than currently forecast. Light winds may allow for light fog
to form in low lying areas.

After cool lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, highs Friday should
rise into the lower 80s well inland. Cooler temperatures near the
lake are expected with onshore winds.


.friday night through SATURDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence...High

An upper level ridge across Wisconsin friday night moves into the
Great lakes Region Saturday as a strong shortwave moves across the
Northern Plains and southern Canada. Upper level divergence begins
Saturday evening. 700 mb upward motion increases Saturday but is
rather weak until Saturday night when the upward motion increases.
850/700 mb levels warm. A band of high 850/700 mb RH moves across
the forecast area Saturday night with a 30 to 35 knot 850 mb flow.

A south low level flow increases dewpoints back into the lower
70s. GFS surface based CAPE increases to near 3000 joules/kg south
central with only a weak cap, but CAPE is less than 1000
joules/kg southeast.

Have focused the highest thunderstorm potential beginning
Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. GFS forecast
soundings do have marginal severe potential on NSHARP.


.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper low northeast of Lake Superior lifts northeast with the
right entrance area of the upper jet across southern Wisconsin.
Weak upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion. By 10 am
the dry wedge at 700 mb affects the entire forecast area. the 850
mb layers moisten a little north areas late, but the stratocumulus
shield is expected to stay to the north closer to the mid level
low.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A mid/upper trough moves slowly across the Upper Great lakes with
a west/northwest upper flow across Southern Wisconsin.

A large area of high pressure will build across the upper
Mississippi Valley before reaching the Great Lakes Wednesday.

.Thursday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The northwest mid/upper level flow continues as a weak surface
trough approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR to VFR category ceilings should linger into tonight across the
area. Any lingering showers will slowly diminish by sunset.
Northeast to east winds will become northeast by early evening and
weaken.

High pressure moving across the region tonight into Friday will
bring quiet weather to the area. There is uncertainty with how long
the clouds will linger tonight into Friday morning, and if they will
become lower. For now, will use a gradual weakening trend with the
clouds later tonight, but may linger into Friday morning.

In addition, some light fog is possible in low areas later tonight
into Friday morning. Left mention out of TAFs for now. Winds will be
light and northeasterly later tonight, then light and easterly on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds may gust up to 20 knots into early evening, until
the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds and waves should remain light
tonight into Friday night, with high pressure over the region.

South to southeast winds ahead of an approaching cold front may
reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday afternoon and night.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Friday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday...06




000
FXUS63 KARX 231854
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
154 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main forecast concerns are on cloud trends tonight and the potential
for some patchy dense fog.

High pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight hours.  Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as
cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they
will be stubborn to clear though.  With the cloudy skies across much
of the areas today limiting mixing, temperature/dew point spreads
will be rather low.  This combined with the clearing skies should
lead to radiational fog which could be locally dense in spots.
Thinking areas that received heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours
would be most susceptible to the fog.

Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on
Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night
as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front
approach from the west. 850 MB moisture transport increases across
the area and we should see some elevated thunderstorms develop
Friday night along this moisture transport. NAM forecast soundings
suggest elevated CAPE of around 2000 J/kg when lifting from 850 MB.
If this moisture is real in the model we may see some stronger
storms develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.  These
would be capable of heavy downpours and possibly some hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A warm and muggy airmass will be in place across the region on
Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A few
showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing through the day, mainly
north of interstate 90. We should see a break in the activity from
late morning through about mid afternoon. Then more thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the cold front near the Interstate 35
corridor. Before more storms move in late in the day, we should see
highs climb into mid to upper 80s. With dew point values in the
upper 60s to around 70 making it feel on the humid side.  Showers
and storms are then expected to move into areas along and west of
the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. These storms then look to spread east into western and
central Wisconsin during the evening hours. Afternoon surface bases
CAPE values look to climb to around 2000 J/kg. Initially shear is
fairly weak but then is expected to increase through the afternoon
hours into the evening, mainly in the 0-3 km layer. 0-3 km bulk
shear values look to increase to around 25 to 30 kts.  We are
expecting multicell storms with the potential for a few line
segments. Main threats look to be damaging winds, perhaps some large
hail, and heavy downpours. Shear values look stronger over northwest
Wisconsin and much of the guidance is convecting in this area.
The thunderstorms will then sweep through the area from west to
east across the area through the evening hours and exit overnight.

Breezy westerly winds are expected across the region on Sunday in
the wake of the cold front. It looks to be another warm day with
drier dew points in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air then moves in for
Monday with highs falling back into the 70s to around 80. Dry and
pleasant weather looks to be the rule for much of next week with
northwesterly flow in place. Highs temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Widespread field of ifr/mvfr stratus across the area early this
afternoon under an inverted surface trough of low pressure. Look
for this stratus to hang tough through the afternoon, then
eventually thins/scatters out this evening as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Will be watching closely for
fog formation after midnight as high moves directly overhead with
mostly clear skies. Right now, will go with 3sm br sct003 at both
KRST/KLSE from 08-12z time frame. Clear skies then expected from
12-18z as high pressure center slips east into eastern WI.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 231854
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
154 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Main forecast concerns are on cloud trends tonight and the potential
for some patchy dense fog.

High pressure will build into the region this evening into the
overnight hours.  Clouds are expected to gradually decrease as
cyclonic flow aloft shifts southeast and the high moves in, they
will be stubborn to clear though.  With the cloudy skies across much
of the areas today limiting mixing, temperature/dew point spreads
will be rather low.  This combined with the clearing skies should
lead to radiational fog which could be locally dense in spots.
Thinking areas that received heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours
would be most susceptible to the fog.

Dry and quiet weather is expected across the area during the day on
Friday with high pressure in control. This will change Friday night
as a warm front lifts into the region as a trough and cold front
approach from the west. 850 MB moisture transport increases across
the area and we should see some elevated thunderstorms develop
Friday night along this moisture transport. NAM forecast soundings
suggest elevated CAPE of around 2000 J/kg when lifting from 850 MB.
If this moisture is real in the model we may see some stronger
storms develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.  These
would be capable of heavy downpours and possibly some hail.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

A warm and muggy airmass will be in place across the region on
Saturday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. A few
showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing through the day, mainly
north of interstate 90. We should see a break in the activity from
late morning through about mid afternoon. Then more thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the cold front near the Interstate 35
corridor. Before more storms move in late in the day, we should see
highs climb into mid to upper 80s. With dew point values in the
upper 60s to around 70 making it feel on the humid side.  Showers
and storms are then expected to move into areas along and west of
the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. These storms then look to spread east into western and
central Wisconsin during the evening hours. Afternoon surface bases
CAPE values look to climb to around 2000 J/kg. Initially shear is
fairly weak but then is expected to increase through the afternoon
hours into the evening, mainly in the 0-3 km layer. 0-3 km bulk
shear values look to increase to around 25 to 30 kts.  We are
expecting multicell storms with the potential for a few line
segments. Main threats look to be damaging winds, perhaps some large
hail, and heavy downpours. Shear values look stronger over northwest
Wisconsin and much of the guidance is convecting in this area.
The thunderstorms will then sweep through the area from west to
east across the area through the evening hours and exit overnight.

Breezy westerly winds are expected across the region on Sunday in
the wake of the cold front. It looks to be another warm day with
drier dew points in the 50s and 60s. Cooler air then moves in for
Monday with highs falling back into the 70s to around 80. Dry and
pleasant weather looks to be the rule for much of next week with
northwesterly flow in place. Highs temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Widespread field of ifr/mvfr stratus across the area early this
afternoon under an inverted surface trough of low pressure. Look
for this stratus to hang tough through the afternoon, then
eventually thins/scatters out this evening as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Will be watching closely for
fog formation after midnight as high moves directly overhead with
mostly clear skies. Right now, will go with 3sm br sct003 at both
KRST/KLSE from 08-12z time frame. Clear skies then expected from
12-18z as high pressure center slips east into eastern WI.


&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231853
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
153 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
shortwave trough gliding over northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon.  The combination of this shortwave and a pesky inverted
trough, which runs into central WI, is producing widely scattered
showers and mostly cloudy conditions.  These features have been
slowly moving, but generally drifting southward so far today.
Think these showers will dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Looking
upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move
into the region late tonight.  Cloud trends and temps are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Tonight...Weak shortwave will exit northeast Wisconsin late in the
evening or overnight.  Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will
gradually slide south into southern WI.  Some guidance is slower
than others in bringing in clearing from the north. Based on
satellite and model trends, have slowed the clearing into mid to
late evening.  Then should have mostly clear skies and light winds,
which could lead to patchy fog developing over north-central WI
late.  Lows falling into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Friday...High pressure will be centered across the region.  Should
see some cu pop by late morning, but otherwise, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should prevail.  Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main fcst concern will be pcpn trends and severe weather
potential over the weekend.

Developing return flow will bring elevated instability back into
the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, so will
continue to mention a chance of elevated tstms over north central
WI late Friday night, and expand the chance eastward to just west
of the Fox Valley Saturday morning.

Have ramped pops up to likely over parts of central and north
central WI late in the afternoon, when CAPE is expected to build
to 1000-2000 j/kg and a 30-35 kt LLJ will be focused on the area.
Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for organized
storms. Strong to locally severe tstms are possible in our western
counties late Saturday afternoon, with the threat spreading east
but gradually waning during the evening. SPC has our western
counties in a SLGT risk, with a marginal risk across the rest of
the CWA.

A 35-45 kt LLJ is expected to develop ahead of the advancing cold
front Saturday night, resulting in a surge of significant
moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. In addition
to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall appears likely, and
several models (especially the GFS) have ramped up QPF amounts.

Models are still in good agreement with the timing of the cold
front, with both the ECMWF and GFS shifting it east of the region
Sunday morning. Have opted to go with a dry forecast on Sunday,
with decreasing clouds anticipated from northwest to southeast.

Northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid conditions for
the first half of the next work week. Although there may be a few
showers over northern WI Sunday night and Monday, most of the
region will have dry weather through midweek, under the influence
of Canadian high pressure. As the high shifts south on Thursday,
moisture and instability will return ahead of a weak cold front,
leading to a chance of tstms over mainly northern WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Mainly vfr conditions across the region through the taf
period. Scattered light showers falling out of a mid-deck will
likely dissipate this afternoon, but the mid clouds may not clear
the area until late tonight. Once they depart, then mostly clear
skies and light winds will prevail through midday on Friday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 231853
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
153 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
shortwave trough gliding over northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon.  The combination of this shortwave and a pesky inverted
trough, which runs into central WI, is producing widely scattered
showers and mostly cloudy conditions.  These features have been
slowly moving, but generally drifting southward so far today.
Think these showers will dissipate by mid to late afternoon. Looking
upstream, high pressure over the northern Plains is poised to move
into the region late tonight.  Cloud trends and temps are the main
forecast concerns through Friday.

Tonight...Weak shortwave will exit northeast Wisconsin late in the
evening or overnight.  Meanwhile, a pesky low level trough will
gradually slide south into southern WI.  Some guidance is slower
than others in bringing in clearing from the north. Based on
satellite and model trends, have slowed the clearing into mid to
late evening.  Then should have mostly clear skies and light winds,
which could lead to patchy fog developing over north-central WI
late.  Lows falling into the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

Friday...High pressure will be centered across the region.  Should
see some cu pop by late morning, but otherwise, mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies should prevail.  Warmer highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The main fcst concern will be pcpn trends and severe weather
potential over the weekend.

Developing return flow will bring elevated instability back into
the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, so will
continue to mention a chance of elevated tstms over north central
WI late Friday night, and expand the chance eastward to just west
of the Fox Valley Saturday morning.

Have ramped pops up to likely over parts of central and north
central WI late in the afternoon, when CAPE is expected to build
to 1000-2000 j/kg and a 30-35 kt LLJ will be focused on the area.
Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for organized
storms. Strong to locally severe tstms are possible in our western
counties late Saturday afternoon, with the threat spreading east
but gradually waning during the evening. SPC has our western
counties in a SLGT risk, with a marginal risk across the rest of
the CWA.

A 35-45 kt LLJ is expected to develop ahead of the advancing cold
front Saturday night, resulting in a surge of significant
moisture, with PWATs increasing to around 2 inches. In addition
to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall appears likely, and
several models (especially the GFS) have ramped up QPF amounts.

Models are still in good agreement with the timing of the cold
front, with both the ECMWF and GFS shifting it east of the region
Sunday morning. Have opted to go with a dry forecast on Sunday,
with decreasing clouds anticipated from northwest to southeast.

Northwest flow will bring cooler and less humid conditions for
the first half of the next work week. Although there may be a few
showers over northern WI Sunday night and Monday, most of the
region will have dry weather through midweek, under the influence
of Canadian high pressure. As the high shifts south on Thursday,
moisture and instability will return ahead of a weak cold front,
leading to a chance of tstms over mainly northern WI.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Mainly vfr conditions across the region through the taf
period. Scattered light showers falling out of a mid-deck will
likely dissipate this afternoon, but the mid clouds may not clear
the area until late tonight. Once they depart, then mostly clear
skies and light winds will prevail through midday on Friday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC




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