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000
FXUS63 KARX 221002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE/CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 22.00Z
GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AT LEAST 25.00Z (MONDAY NIGHT)...DIVERGING A BIT THEREAFTER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

22.09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG WAVE CRASHING ON THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHORE AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE AND PUSH EAST AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES INTO IL
AND SOUTHEAST WI. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS THE +10 C 850 HPA ISOTHERM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
BY 23.00Z. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THE
NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. SATURATION ONLY EXPECTED TO
AROUND 2 KM OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...SO ANY PRECIP WILL
LIKELY STILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE ZERO SO FREEZING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG WITH THE 22.03Z SREF SHOWING A 100
PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...
BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED
AND/OR CANCELLED BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES TO AT LEAST 500 HPA BY SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRIZZLE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. STRONG FORCING/LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 HPA ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
SET-UP...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM HUDSON WI
TO MASON CITY IA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM OVER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND A TENTH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DEFORMATION
AXIS SNOW BAND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW ON MONDAY GENERALLY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF A SUB-FREEZING AIR
MASS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND
TEENS AT NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NATION/S MID-SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

-RA/-DZ PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA...HEADING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS KRST/KLSE...AND WITH PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE SOME -DZ DEVELOPMENT AT KLSE. KRST WILL
LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE PCPN. WHILE AIR TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...AND THUS -FZDZ WILL BE THE
LIKELY PCPN TYPE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING EXPECT MOST PCPN TO SWITCH OF TO -RA/-DZ EARLY/MID MORNING
SAT.

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO SUNDAY...PER
RAP/HRRR/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...SOME HINTS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF SCATTERING...FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH HERE...SO WILL HOLD
ONTO THE LOW CIGS FOR NOW.

-RA/DZ LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-290 K
SFCS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND FOG BECOMES A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD...ADDING ANOTHER VSBY RESTRICTOR IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED PCPN.

925 MB WINDS AT KDVN AT 35 KTS BUT UP TO 45 KTS AT KGRB. RAP/NAM12
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT THROUGH
09Z...IMPROVING AFTER THAT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION FOR KLSE IN
FORECAST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 221002
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TYPE/CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 22.00Z
GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
AT LEAST 25.00Z (MONDAY NIGHT)...DIVERGING A BIT THEREAFTER IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

22.09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG WAVE CRASHING ON THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHORE AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE AND PUSH EAST AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES INTO IL
AND SOUTHEAST WI. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AS THE +10 C 850 HPA ISOTHERM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
BY 23.00Z. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THE
NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. SATURATION ONLY EXPECTED TO
AROUND 2 KM OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...SO ANY PRECIP WILL
LIKELY STILL BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL
BE WELL ABOVE ZERO SO FREEZING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG WITH THE 22.03Z SREF SHOWING A 100
PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...
BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED
AND/OR CANCELLED BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES TO AT LEAST 500 HPA BY SUNDAY
RESULTING IN DRIZZLE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. STRONG FORCING/LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 HPA ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
SET-UP...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM HUDSON WI
TO MASON CITY IA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM OVER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND A TENTH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DEFORMATION
AXIS SNOW BAND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW ON MONDAY GENERALLY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF A SUB-FREEZING AIR
MASS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND
TEENS AT NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THANKSGIVING DAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT COLD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NATION/S MID-SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

-RA/-DZ PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA...HEADING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS KRST/KLSE...AND WITH PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE SOME -DZ DEVELOPMENT AT KLSE. KRST WILL
LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE PCPN. WHILE AIR TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...AND THUS -FZDZ WILL BE THE
LIKELY PCPN TYPE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING EXPECT MOST PCPN TO SWITCH OF TO -RA/-DZ EARLY/MID MORNING
SAT.

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO SUNDAY...PER
RAP/HRRR/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...SOME HINTS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF SCATTERING...FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH HERE...SO WILL HOLD
ONTO THE LOW CIGS FOR NOW.

-RA/DZ LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-290 K
SFCS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND FOG BECOMES A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD...ADDING ANOTHER VSBY RESTRICTOR IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED PCPN.

925 MB WINDS AT KDVN AT 35 KTS BUT UP TO 45 KTS AT KGRB. RAP/NAM12
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT THROUGH
09Z...IMPROVING AFTER THAT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION FOR KLSE IN
FORECAST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ041>044-053>055-061.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION....RIECK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 220954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT 09Z. IT WAS HAVING A HARD
TIME GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 151 SO WE DECIDED TO DROP THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG EVENT.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS IN THE
30S AND 40S OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS DEEP SNOW COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND MILD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
AS THE DAY GOES ON. HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY IN MOST PLACES
WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF POTENTIAL PITFALLS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST MAKING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW.  CONFIDENCE FALLS
RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER
COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  A STRONGER SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS. SO WILL GO WITH A GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN/GEM BLEND. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF IS MORE IN SYNC
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS BY 00Z FRIDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR
LATER PERIODS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO A MIX OR ALL
SNOW.  COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO.  POTENTIAL IS IMPROVING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE ON
MONDAY...THOUGH ITS STILL RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON
POSSIBLE ACCUMS SINCE THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.  BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SOLUTION...A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH EVENT IS
POSSIBLE.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE WITH ANY
SNOWFALL SINCE GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT WITHIN THE
SNOW BELT WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GOOD
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS THERE WHICH COULD
SURPASS WARNING CRITERIA SINCE FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES COULD
OCCUR FOR 12-18 HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANY LINGERING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BELT OR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL EXIT TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LARGE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
IN.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS INTO THE REGION.  BEHIND THE
CLIPPER A 1035-1040MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT TO THE SNOW
BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD BLAST COULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL TRANSPORT A
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT LLWS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY SATURDAY...THE FREEZING PCPN SHOULD
TURN TO MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220954
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT 09Z. IT WAS HAVING A HARD
TIME GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 151 SO WE DECIDED TO DROP THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT A BIG EVENT.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL
TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS IN THE
30S AND 40S OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
WISCONSIN. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE WHERE THERE IS DEEP SNOW COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND MILD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
AS THE DAY GOES ON. HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE LIKELY IN MOST PLACES
WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF POTENTIAL PITFALLS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST MAKING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW.  CONFIDENCE FALLS
RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH THEIR 00Z RUNS...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER
COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  A STRONGER SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS. SO WILL GO WITH A GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN/GEM BLEND. THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF IS MORE IN SYNC
WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS BY 00Z FRIDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR
LATER PERIODS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO A MIX OR ALL
SNOW.  COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO.  POTENTIAL IS IMPROVING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE ON
MONDAY...THOUGH ITS STILL RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON
POSSIBLE ACCUMS SINCE THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE.  BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SOLUTION...A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH EVENT IS
POSSIBLE.  BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE WITH ANY
SNOWFALL SINCE GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT WITHIN THE
SNOW BELT WHERE WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GOOD
ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS THERE WHICH COULD
SURPASS WARNING CRITERIA SINCE FAVORABLE WIND TRAJECTORIES COULD
OCCUR FOR 12-18 HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...ANY LINGERING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BELT OR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL EXIT TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LARGE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
IN.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS INTO THE REGION.  BEHIND THE
CLIPPER A 1035-1040MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD TEMPS AND LAKE EFFECT TO THE SNOW
BELTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD BLAST COULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL TRANSPORT A
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT LLWS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY LIFR/IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY SATURDAY...THE FREEZING PCPN SHOULD
TURN TO MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 220951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE WATCHING END TIMES FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MODELS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT TAKING MAIN AREA OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND. AIR
TEMPS ARE RISING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING BELOW FREEZING
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

ONCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EXITS EAST THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL
DRYING BUT SATURATION BELOW 850 MB SO LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

700 MB OMEGA WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST NEAR-ZONAL FLOW CROSSES
STATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MAIN ENERGY STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MI/LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG...WITH AN UP TICK IN DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. WAVE BRIEFLY BRINGS A COOL POCKET OF 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THEN WARMING AFTER AS BACKING SW TO S
WINDS INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS NORTH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOVES ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT BACK NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BUCKLES AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY DRIZZLE TO START...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR STEADY TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THUS LEFT LIKELY
POPS IN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY
AIR WOULD QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
DUSTING OR SO WEST BY MORNING.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TURN
OVER TO ALL LIQUID PCPN BY 14Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER PCPN
LIMITED TO EASTERN TAF SITES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO REMAIN AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LIGHT RAIN EXITS EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE
IFR CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING FOR STEADY
DRIZZLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL END CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FETCH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW...BUT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 220951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE WATCHING END TIMES FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MODELS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT TAKING MAIN AREA OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND. AIR
TEMPS ARE RISING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING BELOW FREEZING
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

ONCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EXITS EAST THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL
DRYING BUT SATURATION BELOW 850 MB SO LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

700 MB OMEGA WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST NEAR-ZONAL FLOW CROSSES
STATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MAIN ENERGY STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MI/LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG...WITH AN UP TICK IN DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. WAVE BRIEFLY BRINGS A COOL POCKET OF 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THEN WARMING AFTER AS BACKING SW TO S
WINDS INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS NORTH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOVES ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT BACK NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BUCKLES AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY DRIZZLE TO START...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR STEADY TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THUS LEFT LIKELY
POPS IN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY
AIR WOULD QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
DUSTING OR SO WEST BY MORNING.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TURN
OVER TO ALL LIQUID PCPN BY 14Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER PCPN
LIMITED TO EASTERN TAF SITES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO REMAIN AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LIGHT RAIN EXITS EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE
IFR CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING FOR STEADY
DRIZZLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL END CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FETCH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW...BUT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 220951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE WATCHING END TIMES FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MODELS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT TAKING MAIN AREA OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND. AIR
TEMPS ARE RISING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING BELOW FREEZING
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

ONCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EXITS EAST THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL
DRYING BUT SATURATION BELOW 850 MB SO LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

700 MB OMEGA WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST NEAR-ZONAL FLOW CROSSES
STATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MAIN ENERGY STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MI/LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG...WITH AN UP TICK IN DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. WAVE BRIEFLY BRINGS A COOL POCKET OF 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THEN WARMING AFTER AS BACKING SW TO S
WINDS INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS NORTH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOVES ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT BACK NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BUCKLES AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY DRIZZLE TO START...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR STEADY TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THUS LEFT LIKELY
POPS IN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY
AIR WOULD QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
DUSTING OR SO WEST BY MORNING.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TURN
OVER TO ALL LIQUID PCPN BY 14Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER PCPN
LIMITED TO EASTERN TAF SITES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO REMAIN AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LIGHT RAIN EXITS EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE
IFR CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING FOR STEADY
DRIZZLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL END CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FETCH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW...BUT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 220951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL BE WATCHING END TIMES FOR FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS MODELS IN
GREAT AGREEMENT TAKING MAIN AREA OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST AREA WITH
FIRST SHORT WAVE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE BEHIND. AIR
TEMPS ARE RISING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING BELOW FREEZING
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK.

ONCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EXITS EAST THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL
DRYING BUT SATURATION BELOW 850 MB SO LOOKING AT CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

700 MB OMEGA WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST NEAR-ZONAL FLOW CROSSES
STATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT MAIN ENERGY STAYING NORTH ACROSS THE
U.P. OF MI/LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG...WITH AN UP TICK IN DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN. WAVE BRIEFLY BRINGS A COOL POCKET OF 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THEN WARMING AFTER AS BACKING SW TO S
WINDS INCREASE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE COOLER READINGS NORTH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MOVES ACROSS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIFT BACK NORTH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BUCKLES AHEAD OF 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY DRIZZLE TO START...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR STEADY TEMPS WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGHS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP AS LOW AS ZERO...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE END OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THUS LEFT LIKELY
POPS IN ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PRONOUNCED AREA OF DEFORMATION PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY
AIR WOULD QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST
A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
DUSTING OR SO WEST BY MORNING.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE. THE SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THE COLDEST TEMPS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR AREA OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO TURN
OVER TO ALL LIQUID PCPN BY 14Z...WITH THE RELATIVELY HEAVIER PCPN
LIMITED TO EASTERN TAF SITES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO REMAIN AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER LIGHT RAIN EXITS EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-
MORNING. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE
IFR CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. LOOKING FOR STEADY
DRIZZLE AND MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THIS EVENING...WITH PCPN INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL END CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH WINDS
EASING THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FETCH LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE NEARSHORE. ANOTHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT TRACK
AND EVOLUTION OF LOW...BUT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-
     047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ051-
     052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 220520
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

-RA/-DZ PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA...HEADING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS KRST/KLSE...AND WITH PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE SOME -DZ DEVELOPMENT AT KLSE. KRST WILL
LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE PCPN. WHILE AIR TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...AND THUS -FZDZ WILL BE THE
LIKELY PCPN TYPE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING EXPECT MOST PCPN TO SWITCH OF TO -RA/-DZ EARLY/MID MORNING
SAT.

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO SUNDAY...PER
RAP/HRRR/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...SOME HINTS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF SCATTERING...FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH HERE...SO WILL HOLD
ONTO THE LOW CIGS FOR NOW.

-RA/DZ LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-290 K
SFCS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND FOG BECOMES A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD...ADDING ANOTHER VSBY RESTRICTOR IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED PCPN.

925 MB WINDS AT KDVN AT 35 KTS BUT UP TO 45 KTS AT KGRB. RAP/NAM12
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT THROUGH
09Z...IMPROVING AFTER THAT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION FOR KLSE IN
FORECAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 220520
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

-RA/-DZ PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA...HEADING INTO
WESTERN/SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS KRST/KLSE...AND WITH PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE SOME -DZ DEVELOPMENT AT KLSE. KRST WILL
LIKELY STAY WEST OF THE PCPN. WHILE AIR TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...AND THUS -FZDZ WILL BE THE
LIKELY PCPN TYPE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. WITH THE CONTINUED
WARMING EXPECT MOST PCPN TO SWITCH OF TO -RA/-DZ EARLY/MID MORNING
SAT.

IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO SUNDAY...PER
RAP/HRRR/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THAT SAID...SOME HINTS THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT...PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF SCATTERING...FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH HERE...SO WILL HOLD
ONTO THE LOW CIGS FOR NOW.

-RA/DZ LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-290 K
SFCS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER AND FOG BECOMES A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD...ADDING ANOTHER VSBY RESTRICTOR IN ADDITION TO THE
EXPECTED PCPN.

925 MB WINDS AT KDVN AT 35 KTS BUT UP TO 45 KTS AT KGRB. RAP/NAM12
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT THROUGH
09Z...IMPROVING AFTER THAT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION FOR KLSE IN
FORECAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 220425
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1025 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE WORKING INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOW A
CLUSTER OF FREEZING PCPN OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
AND TRACKING NE. PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAIN REGION OF
FREEZING PCPN MAY BRUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA...MAYBE
SOUTH OF A OSH-MTW LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
LIKELY LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WAA
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. GRB SOUNDING WAS A BIT ON
THE DRY SIDE TO START WITH FOR ANOTHER NEGATIVE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL
TRANSPORT A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS A RESULT LLWS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD...WITH PATCHY LIFR/IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY SATURDAY...THE FREEZING
PCPN SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-
045-048>050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 220306
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
906 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE WORKING INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT. RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOW A
CLUSTER OF FREEZING PCPN OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
AND TRACKING NE. PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MAIN REGION OF
FREEZING PCPN MAY BRUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA...MAYBE
SOUTH OF A OSH-MTW LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL
LIKELY LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WAA
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. GRB SOUNDING WAS A BIT ON
THE DRY SIDE TO START WITH FOR ANOTHER NEGATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSPORT A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR VFR CIGS TO DETERIORATE MVFR LATE THIS EVENING THEN TO LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY
SATURDAY...THE FREEZING PCPN SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-
045-048>050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 220240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE
AS IT HITS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
AND RISE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
NICELY DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER IOWA...FCST TO LIFT
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAS BEEN SHOWING A RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIP PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND STAYING MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
MADISON. THE NEW 00Z NAM IS HEADED THAT WAY AND KEEPS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF A DODGEVILLE TO PORT WASHINGTON LINE.

ROAD SENSOR DATA SHOWS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S F. AIRCRAFT SOUNDER DATA IS ALREADY SHOWING THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO THAT SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AND STRONG ENOUGH TO ENSURE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP GETS HERE. THE BASE OF THAT LAYER IS
AROUND 3KFT RIGHT NOW.

CONFIDENCE IN THE ADVISORY NORTH OF MADISON IS VERY SHAKY RIGHT
NOW...BUT EVEN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN A QUICKLY
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS VERY QUICKLY. THE
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SOUTH AND EAST OF MADISON WHERE THERE IS
BETTER CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE PRECIP. WILL STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES MAY LAG THAT AND STILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH
MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...ALL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/WET ROADS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO STEADILY DETERIORATE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AM AND 7 AM. AIR TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
MAY BE LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS. MADISON MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT UNTIL TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
SUNRISE.

CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DROP BACK TO IFR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 220240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
840 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP ACROSS IOWA CONTINUES TO EVAPORATE
AS IT HITS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
AND RISE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
NICELY DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER IOWA...FCST TO LIFT
ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HRRR RADAR DEPICTION HAS BEEN SHOWING A RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE PRECIP PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND STAYING MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
MADISON. THE NEW 00Z NAM IS HEADED THAT WAY AND KEEPS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF A DODGEVILLE TO PORT WASHINGTON LINE.

ROAD SENSOR DATA SHOWS PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S F. AIRCRAFT SOUNDER DATA IS ALREADY SHOWING THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO THAT SHOULD BE
IN PLACE AND STRONG ENOUGH TO ENSURE THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
FREEZING RAIN ONCE THE PRECIP GETS HERE. THE BASE OF THAT LAYER IS
AROUND 3KFT RIGHT NOW.

CONFIDENCE IN THE ADVISORY NORTH OF MADISON IS VERY SHAKY RIGHT
NOW...BUT EVEN A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LIGHT DRIZZLE IN A QUICKLY
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS VERY QUICKLY. THE
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SOUTH AND EAST OF MADISON WHERE THERE IS
BETTER CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE PRECIP. WILL STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES MAY LAG THAT AND STILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH
MID MORNING. THEREAFTER...ALL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN/WET ROADS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO STEADILY DETERIORATE WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY
SUNRISE. AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AM AND 7 AM. AIR TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
MAY BE LAGGING BY A FEW HOURS. MADISON MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT UNTIL TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
SUNRISE.

CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DROP BACK TO IFR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KGRB 220001
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSPORT A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR VFR CIGS TO DETERIORATE MVFR LATE THIS EVENING THEN TO LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY
SATURDAY...THE FREEZING PCPN SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220001
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KTS WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSPORT A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOOK
FOR VFR CIGS TO DETERIORATE MVFR LATE THIS EVENING THEN TO LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MID DAY
SATURDAY...THE FREEZING PCPN SHOULD TURN TO MAINLY RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 212332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 925-850 MB WARMING.
EXPECTING A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK THIS
EVENING...IFR/MVFR...WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN WITH THE COMBO OF LOW MOISTURE/LIFT...AND DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...MAKING
-FZDZ MORE LIKELY. THIS SHOULD SWITCH OVER BY 12Z /IF NOT EARLIER/.
KRST WILL LIKELY AVOID THE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO A SHALLOWING OUT OF CLOUD LAYER ON SAT...WHICH WILL HELP
SHUT DOWN THE PCPN. CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMING LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE RA/DZ.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE ALL PCPN FALLS AS LIQUID. IN
ADDITION...FOG COULD BECOME AN ADDITIONAL VSBY CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
SAT NIGHT...WITH MILDER AIR ACROSS A SNOW PACK.

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE LLWS A CONCERN FOR KLSE.
RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT
FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 09Z. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN
FORECAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 212332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH A SWATH OF 925-850 MB WARMING.
EXPECTING A LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK THIS
EVENING...IFR/MVFR...WHICH WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN WITH THE COMBO OF LOW MOISTURE/LIFT...AND DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ROAD TEMPS ARE FREEZING...MAKING
-FZDZ MORE LIKELY. THIS SHOULD SWITCH OVER BY 12Z /IF NOT EARLIER/.
KRST WILL LIKELY AVOID THE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
POINT TO A SHALLOWING OUT OF CLOUD LAYER ON SAT...WHICH WILL HELP
SHUT DOWN THE PCPN. CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMING LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE RA/DZ.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WHERE ALL PCPN FALLS AS LIQUID. IN
ADDITION...FOG COULD BECOME AN ADDITIONAL VSBY CONCERN...ESPECIALLY
SAT NIGHT...WITH MILDER AIR ACROSS A SNOW PACK.

AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAKE LLWS A CONCERN FOR KLSE.
RAP/NAM12 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE BY 2 KFT
FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT...IMPROVING BY 09Z. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN
FORECAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 212149
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 212149
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212149
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212149
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE EVENING TO SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS. SOUTHERN WI IS VERY DRY RIGHT NOW WITH SUNSHINE...
BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CREATE MODERATE UPWARD MOTION /OMEGA/ OVER SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS WILL SATURATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE WITH A WARM LAYER FROM 2 TO 7 KFT WITH A MAX TEMP ALOFT OF
+4C. MEANWHILE... SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A COLD PATTERN... BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST
10 DAYS... THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY LIQUID TO FREEZE ON CONTACT AND CREATE GLAZED SURFACES.
EXPECT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON SIDEWALKS AND UNTREATED ROADS.

THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS... SO WE
INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO UP TO 0.15 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
WI WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THE UNCERTAINTY FOR TONIGHT IS HOW LOW THE TEMPS WILL DROP AND HOW
LONG THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND. THIS WOULD IMPACT ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS... PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SAT NT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
THUS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A FROZEN
GROUND WILL AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL LIFT NEWD
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MON WHILE A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT FROM CENTRAL IL TO ERN UPPER MI FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MON. THE STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OVER WRN LOWER MI WITH
PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH OVER WI. THE DEEP QG DYNAMICS AND
FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT RAIN FOR SUN AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES LATE SUN NT AND EARLY MON AM...A
CHANGE TO LGT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
THEN PASS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR
MON NT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THAT COULD
LINGER INTO TUE AM OVER ERN WI. OVERALL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME
SHOULD REACH ONE INCH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUE INTO WED AM. A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG SEWD FROM CANADA...INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE ERN USA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO
FOLLOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE THU INTO FRI
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AT MSN
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES...AN HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN ONSET. EXPECTING FREEZING RAIN TO START AT MSN
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AN HOUR LATER AT EASTERN TAF SITES. THE
MAJORITY OF THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
EXPECTING UP TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND
UP TO 0.10 AT MSN AND UES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS AT 2000 FT EXPECTED TO BE 40
TO 45 KTS DURING THE NIGHT. NO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE.

PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. FREEZING RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KARX 212144
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 212144
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 212144
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 212144
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST TIME TRYING TO GET THE CORRECT IMPACT
MESSAGING OUT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ICING POTENTIAL MOVING IN AND
CONCERNS A BIT HIGHER IN WI WITH MANY TRAVELING FOR DEER HUNTING
WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FOR TONIGHT
OVER NEB-KS...WITH SUNDAYS STRONG WAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NRN STREAM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING TONIGHTS WALL-OF-MOISTURE COMING AT THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LEADING EDGE NOW IN SOUTHERN IA. THERE ARE TWO MOIST SURGES
AND WARM FRONTS...ONE ON THE LEADING CLOUD LINE FROM KOMA-KSTL
AND THE MORE POTENT AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF WICHITA KS. MANY 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AIR MASS FORECAST BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...KTOP /INITIAL MOIST SURGE/...KSGF AND KLIT
/DEEPER MOIST SURGE/. SO...CONFIDENCE OF THE CHARACTER OF THIS AIR
MASS IS HIGH BASED ON SIMPLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD WHAT WE SEE IN
THE OBSERVATIONS /50-60F DEWPOINTS WOW/.

STRUGGLES WITH CONFIDENCE LIE IN THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SURFACE-BASED MOIST LAYER IS DEEPEST ACROSS SWRN
WI/EASTERN NE IA AT ABOUT 1.5 KMS...WITH A SHALLOWING NW OF KLSE
TO ABOUT .75 KMS AT KRST/KEAU. IN FACT...ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE IS
SOME SMALL SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE A DEEP
CLOUD PROCESS AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN KS DOES CONFIRM SOME
CONVECTIVE BUMPS. SHOULD IT BE SHALLOW CLOUD OR DEEP CLOUD...THE
RESULT IS RA/FZRA/DZ/FZDZ DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
THUS...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND ICING IN SWRN WI
AND NERN IA BASED ON BETTER PARAMETER SPACE FOR THE WARM CLOUD
RAINFALL PROCESS /0.10 INCHES/...AND LIFTED ADVISORY NORTHWARD
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR I-90 IN WI/FAR EASTERN MN WHERE WE FEEL A
COMPROMISE OF JUST ENOUGH DEPTH TO SURFACE-BASED CLOUD AND JUST
ENOUGH LIFT EXIST FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TRAVEL OCCURRING TONIGHT IN WI...FELT THIS WAS THE PRUDENT CHOICE
EVEN THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FOR OUTCOMES FURTHER NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER
FURTHER NORTH AS ONLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS THE LOW-LAYER
CLOUD. KS/NEB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY SEEMS TO WORK ON THE
UPSTAIRS CLOUD...ABOVE SAY 600 MB. LATE EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3-5
AM SHOULD BE THE MAIN GLAZE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTS APPROACH...BUT
WITH PROLONGED SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 9
DAYS...HAVE KEPT FZRA EVEN WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32F. ROAD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SUNSHINE HAVE REACHED THE
30S...AND THESE MAY HOLD OR RISE OVERNIGHT. BUT LESSER TRAVELED
ROADS AND UNTREATED SURFACES WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS TOO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER A
LIGHT GLAZING OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NEXT MOIST SURGE MOVES IN WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SIGNALS OF WARM FRONTAL
LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE...AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEM TO SCREAM RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THUS...HAVE INCREASED SATURDAY
EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN AND ONSET
PRECIPITATION TIME IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL
LOOKING AT ALL RAIN AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD HAVE A NICE WARMING
INTO THE 40S. HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOG COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
COULD GET PRETTY THICK...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY BRING THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY FORCING...AND A WELL-AGREED UPON
RAINY DAY STILL FROM NERN IA INTO NERN WI. THE QUESTION STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SET
UP. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES SEEMS
ABOUT RIGHT FOR SWRN-CTRL WI. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVER ISSUES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT. ICE IS
NOT THICK ENOUGH...NOR WILL RIVERS RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE JAM
ISSUES.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT ONLY
MINOR PRECIPITATION WOULD GO INTO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. HAVE INCREASED THE CENTRAL WI SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 1
INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THIS PERIOD ON WESTERN
PRECIPITATION EDGE AND THE WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION VERSUS DRY
PUNCH COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO...THIS PERIOD WILL BE REFINED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

ANOTHER COLD PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY AND CURRENT THANKSGIVING HIGHS
ARE IN THE TEENS AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY. THIS AIR MASS IN THE NAEFS IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
/ECMWF 22.12Z/ SUGGEST VALUES CLOSER TO 3 DEVIATIONS...UNUSUAL/RARE
COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 212038
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
238 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF HI
PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM WI. AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET
(UP TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO WI
TNGT. EXPECT TO SEE A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVERSPREAD NE WI AFTER 03Z
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARRIVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR CONTS TO GET PUMPED INTO THE REGION. THESE
STRONG SW WINDS HAVE ALSO PROMPTED THE NEED TO MENTION LLWS IN ALL
TAF SITES FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 212038
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
238 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FCST PITFALLS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SURGE OF WARMER AIR LEADS TO PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE TNGT THRU SAT
MORNING. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN THO TEMPS WL FINALLY GET
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON SAT...ROAD TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW
FREEZING...THUS LEADING TO ICY SPOTS AND TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG AREA OF HI PRES
CENTERED OVER SRN OHIO...SENDING S-SW WINDS INTO WI AND ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TOWARD. STRONG LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
COUPLED WITH THE OHIO HI PRES...WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
NE WI. WHILE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING SOME MID CLOUDS
OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MS
VALLEY WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/TRAILING PCPN WAS
LOCATED. THIS AREA CLOUDS/PCPN WAS MAKING A BEE-LINE TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING.

AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET (TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT
THIS WARM/MOIST GULF AIR TOWARD WI TNGT. INITIALLY...FCST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS CONT TO SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER
WI...THUS EXPECT TO SEE JUST THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNGT...ENUF WAA AND SATURATION OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WL OCCUR TO ALLOW PCPN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. A STUBBORN DRY LAYER ALOFT (AROUND 10K FT) WL
PREVENT ICE FROM BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD...THEREFORE WITH
A SUPERCOOLED LAYER EXPECTED...WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOP OVER NE WI. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT (OR FREEZING RAIN) WOULD BE E-CNTRL WI
WHERE THE LIFT IS THE STRONGEST. CONFIDENT ENUF NOW TO ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUTOMA TO KEWAUNEE AND
WL ISSUE A SPS FOR THE REST OF NE WI STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLICK ROADS/SIDEWALKS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH READINGS SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NGT.

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRZL WL CONT INTO SAT MORNING AND
GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRZL LATE SAT MORNING/EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR FINALLY REACHES THE SFC. THE PCPN IN
GENERAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH NORMAL
LEAVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE NOVEMBER 10TH WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 40 DEGS E-CNTRL
WI.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY...THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE WARM AIR NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EVEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH APPROACHING 40. WILL STILL
HAVE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE GROUND IS UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP. THE MILD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWER TREND
OF CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW...AND WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER 12Z ALONG THE LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
VILAS COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON 850MB WINDS
OFF THE LAKE. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW INTO TUESDAY AS SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
HAS BACKED OFF. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE BULLISH AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS THIS
SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AT THE MOMENT. VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH NEW ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF HI
PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM WI. AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET
(UP TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO WI
TNGT. EXPECT TO SEE A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVERSPREAD NE WI AFTER 03Z
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARRIVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR CONTS TO GET PUMPED INTO THE REGION. THESE
STRONG SW WINDS HAVE ALSO PROMPTED THE NEED TO MENTION LLWS IN ALL
TAF SITES FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ038>040-045-048>050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KMKX 211846 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1246 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE MKX FORECAST AREA. THE QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER UP TOWARD MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES... BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS... WHETHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE... WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST 10
DAYS. THIS MEANS ANY LIQUID HITTING PAVEMENT OR SIDEWALKS ETC WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY INTO A GLAZE.

MODELS INCREASED THE QPF OVER SOUTHEAST WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. I INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO A TENTH TO 0.15 INCH.

SATURDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
RAIN ENDS. WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ONE HOUR TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ICE DUE TO COLD GROUND TEMPS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MSN AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT EASTERN TAF
SITES AS FREEZING RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECTING UP TO
0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND UP TO 0.10 AT MSN
AND UES. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 211846 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1246 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE MKX FORECAST AREA. THE QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER UP TOWARD MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES... BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS... WHETHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE... WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST 10
DAYS. THIS MEANS ANY LIQUID HITTING PAVEMENT OR SIDEWALKS ETC WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY INTO A GLAZE.

MODELS INCREASED THE QPF OVER SOUTHEAST WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. I INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO A TENTH TO 0.15 INCH.

SATURDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
RAIN ENDS. WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ONE HOUR TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ICE DUE TO COLD GROUND TEMPS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MSN AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT EASTERN TAF
SITES AS FREEZING RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECTING UP TO
0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND UP TO 0.10 AT MSN
AND UES. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 211846 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1246 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE MKX FORECAST AREA. THE QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER UP TOWARD MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES... BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS... WHETHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE... WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST 10
DAYS. THIS MEANS ANY LIQUID HITTING PAVEMENT OR SIDEWALKS ETC WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY INTO A GLAZE.

MODELS INCREASED THE QPF OVER SOUTHEAST WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. I INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO A TENTH TO 0.15 INCH.

SATURDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
RAIN ENDS. WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ONE HOUR TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ICE DUE TO COLD GROUND TEMPS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MSN AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT EASTERN TAF
SITES AS FREEZING RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECTING UP TO
0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND UP TO 0.10 AT MSN
AND UES. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 211846 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1246 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A FREEZING RAIN EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WE EXPANDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE MKX FORECAST AREA. THE QPF WILL BE
LIGHTER UP TOWARD MARQUETTE AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES... BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS... WHETHER FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE... WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

THE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PAST 10
DAYS. THIS MEANS ANY LIQUID HITTING PAVEMENT OR SIDEWALKS ETC WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY INTO A GLAZE.

MODELS INCREASED THE QPF OVER SOUTHEAST WI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM. I INCREASED ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO A TENTH TO 0.15 INCH.

SATURDAY MORNING... TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
RAIN ENDS. WE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ONE HOUR TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING ICE DUE TO COLD GROUND TEMPS. EXPECT PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE AND SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AT MSN AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT EASTERN TAF
SITES AS FREEZING RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECTING UP TO
0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT MKE AND ENW AND UP TO 0.10 AT MSN
AND UES. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE DURING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KGRB 211756
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE AND FOX VALLEY EARLY TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO JAMES BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BIG QUESTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY THOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT ANOTHER VERY COLD
STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER. A LOT CAN CHANGE BEFORE NOW AND THEN...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SLOWER WITH THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW.  WILL CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW INVERSION
WILL DEEPEN FOR AN IMPROVING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING
FORCING VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RAIN LIFTING NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OTHERWISE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COMMA HEAD OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE.  BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVERYWHERE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW BELT FROM LAKE
EFFECT.  THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES.  THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD FROM WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM.  BACK INTO THE
DEEP FREEZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF HI
PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM WI. AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET
(UP TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO WI
TNGT. EXPECT TO SEE A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVERSPREAD NE WI AFTER 03Z
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARRIVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR CONTS TO GET PUMPED INTO THE REGION. THESE
STRONG SW WINDS HAVE ALSO PROMPTED THE NEED TO MENTION LLWS IN ALL
TAF SITES FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211756
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE AND FOX VALLEY EARLY TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO JAMES BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BIG QUESTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY THOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT ANOTHER VERY COLD
STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER. A LOT CAN CHANGE BEFORE NOW AND THEN...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SLOWER WITH THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW.  WILL CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW INVERSION
WILL DEEPEN FOR AN IMPROVING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING
FORCING VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RAIN LIFTING NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OTHERWISE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COMMA HEAD OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE.  BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVERYWHERE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW BELT FROM LAKE
EFFECT.  THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES.  THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD FROM WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM.  BACK INTO THE
DEEP FREEZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN AREA OF HI
PRES MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM WI. AN INCREASING SW LOW-LEVEL JET
(UP TO 50 KTS) WL QUICKLY TRANSPORT WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR INTO WI
TNGT. EXPECT TO SEE A MVFR STRATUS DECK OVERSPREAD NE WI AFTER 03Z
WITH FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARRIVING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
THE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE GRADUALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS WARMER AIR CONTS TO GET PUMPED INTO THE REGION. THESE
STRONG SW WINDS HAVE ALSO PROMPTED THE NEED TO MENTION LLWS IN ALL
TAF SITES FOR TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KARX 211753
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

BASED ON FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL BEFORE 11 PM...HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK UP THE ADVISORY START TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREA TO 9 PM.

AFTER ASSESSING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...AND WITH MORE TRAVELERS WITH DEER HUNTING WEEKEND
IN WISCONSIN...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO I-90 IN WISCONSIN. THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA
FOR IMPACT BUT FEEL THAT SOME LIGHT GLAZING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGE HEADING IN.

MAIN IMPACT AREA WILL STILL BE EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NRN
IL FOR ICING. FRINGE COUNTIES ON NW SIDE OF ADVISORY WE EXPECT
MINOR/PATCHY IMPACT AND LOWER ICING COVERAGE. JUST CANT MESS
AROUND WITH ICING...JUST A BIT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 211753
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

BASED ON FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL BEFORE 11 PM...HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK UP THE ADVISORY START TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREA TO 9 PM.

AFTER ASSESSING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...AND WITH MORE TRAVELERS WITH DEER HUNTING WEEKEND
IN WISCONSIN...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO I-90 IN WISCONSIN. THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA
FOR IMPACT BUT FEEL THAT SOME LIGHT GLAZING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGE HEADING IN.

MAIN IMPACT AREA WILL STILL BE EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NRN
IL FOR ICING. FRINGE COUNTIES ON NW SIDE OF ADVISORY WE EXPECT
MINOR/PATCHY IMPACT AND LOWER ICING COVERAGE. JUST CANT MESS
AROUND WITH ICING...JUST A BIT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 211753
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

BASED ON FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL BEFORE 11 PM...HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK UP THE ADVISORY START TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREA TO 9 PM.

AFTER ASSESSING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...AND WITH MORE TRAVELERS WITH DEER HUNTING WEEKEND
IN WISCONSIN...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO I-90 IN WISCONSIN. THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA
FOR IMPACT BUT FEEL THAT SOME LIGHT GLAZING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGE HEADING IN.

MAIN IMPACT AREA WILL STILL BE EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NRN
IL FOR ICING. FRINGE COUNTIES ON NW SIDE OF ADVISORY WE EXPECT
MINOR/PATCHY IMPACT AND LOWER ICING COVERAGE. JUST CANT MESS
AROUND WITH ICING...JUST A BIT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 211753
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

BASED ON FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL BEFORE 11 PM...HAVE
DECIDED TO BACK UP THE ADVISORY START TIME ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREA TO 9 PM.

AFTER ASSESSING THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE LAYER MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...AND WITH MORE TRAVELERS WITH DEER HUNTING WEEKEND
IN WISCONSIN...HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
NORTHWARD TO I-90 IN WISCONSIN. THIS IS A LOWER PROBABILITY AREA
FOR IMPACT BUT FEEL THAT SOME LIGHT GLAZING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGE HEADING IN.

MAIN IMPACT AREA WILL STILL BE EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...AND NRN
IL FOR ICING. FRINGE COUNTIES ON NW SIDE OF ADVISORY WE EXPECT
MINOR/PATCHY IMPACT AND LOWER ICING COVERAGE. JUST CANT MESS
AROUND WITH ICING...JUST A BIT WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.

IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 211731
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 211731
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE
AND STRONGEST AT RST...HAS HELPED BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TAF
SITES. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING
IN A STRATUS DECK THATS RACING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THOSE WINDS ARE PROGGED STRONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT LSE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THE STRATUS DECK TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES IN THE 02-03Z TIME
WINDOW AS AN MVFR CEILING...LOWERING TO IFR AT RST BY 05Z. SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AT LSE AT THE ONSET...
CHANGING OVER TO DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS LATER AS AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE FURTHER LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE
APPROACH 12Z SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO THE COLDER AIR HERE. VISIBILITIES COULD EVEN START TO
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF RST WHERE MVFR
MENTION IS ADDED.

LOOKING AHEAD...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A DENSE FOG EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 211200
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE AND FOX VALLEY EARLY TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO JAMES BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BIG QUESTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY THOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT ANOTHER VERY COLD
STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER. A LOT CAN CHANGE BEFORE NOW AND THEN...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SLOWER WITH THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW.  WILL CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW INVERSION
WILL DEEPEN FOR AN IMPROVING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING
FORCING VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RAIN LIFTING NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OTHERWISE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COMMA HEAD OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE.  BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVERYWHERE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW BELT FROM LAKE
EFFECT.  THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES.  THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD FROM WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM.  BACK INTO THE
DEEP FREEZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST SOME MIDDLE OR HIGH
CLOUDS. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 1500
FEET AGL. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 211140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. AS THE
HIGH SLIPS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12KFT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN SPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE SURGE FOR THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 211140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. AS THE
HIGH SLIPS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 12KFT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN SPREAD
STRATUS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE SURGE FOR THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI...OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. KEPT MENTION OUT FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 211020
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE FREEZING PRECIP TONIGHT AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. 21.00Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
WARMER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 30 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS 0-2 KM
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ALONG 30 TO 40 KT 850 HPA JET. WITH VERY
DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WILL BE NO ICE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD. LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 275 K SURFACE
RESULTS IN OMEGA VALUES AROUND 3 UBAR/S IN THIS SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER...PRODUCING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ROAD
SURFACES WILL REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES AND EXPECT SLICK CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP WITH A GLAZE OF ICE. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FROM 22.05Z TO 22.14Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRIZZLE DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AS PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM AND SATURATES UP TO 700 HPA.

SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND WET AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 24.06Z.
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN AND
A THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE FREEZING TO 750 HPA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SOAR INTO THE MID 40S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY IN WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW INCHES AT MOST.

SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH A
RETURN TO A FREEZING AIR MASS. DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BACK
INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SOME QUESTION THOUGH ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER...OR IF MOST OF IT WOULD BE ABOVE IT. WITH TEMPS AND
ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE IF
IT OCCURS. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 210959
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO OVER ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE AND FOX VALLEY EARLY TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO JAMES BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THEM WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BIG QUESTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHETHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE EVENING OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CHANCE
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY THOUGH THE MOISTURE MAY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT ANOTHER VERY COLD
STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER. A LOT CAN CHANGE BEFORE NOW AND THEN...BUT IN THE
MEANTIME...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST AND SLOWER WITH THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW.  WILL CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BACKING WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  AS THIS
OCCURS...RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW INVERSION
WILL DEEPEN FOR AN IMPROVING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST.  MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  INCREASING
FORCING VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RAIN LIFTING NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH SOME CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ROUTE 39/51 CORRIDOR LATE.  WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS OTHERWISE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COMMA HEAD OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE.  BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVERYWHERE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION. DECENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW BELT FROM LAKE
EFFECT.  THE SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES.  THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD FROM WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM.  BACK INTO THE
DEEP FREEZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE FAR N...BUT SEEM TO FINALLY BE
SHIFTG E. THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KMKX 210937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ059-
     060-064>066-070>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



000
FXUS63 KMKX 210937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ059-
     060-064>066-070>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KARX 210517
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SOME QUESTION THOUGH ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER...OR IF MOST OF IT WOULD BE ABOVE IT. WITH TEMPS AND
ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE IF
IT OCCURS. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 210517
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SOME QUESTION THOUGH ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER...OR IF MOST OF IT WOULD BE ABOVE IT. WITH TEMPS AND
ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE IF
IT OCCURS. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 210517
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SOME QUESTION THOUGH ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER...OR IF MOST OF IT WOULD BE ABOVE IT. WITH TEMPS AND
ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE IF
IT OCCURS. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 210517
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. SOME QUESTION THOUGH ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER...OR IF MOST OF IT WOULD BE ABOVE IT. WITH TEMPS AND
ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE IF
IT OCCURS. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 210358
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
958 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE FAR N...BUT SEEM TO FINALLY BE
SHIFTG E. THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 210358
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
958 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE FAR N...BUT SEEM TO FINALLY BE
SHIFTG E. THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KMKX 210327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
FAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME MIXING WITH 5 TO 10
MPH WINDS DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN WI...BUT
THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE EAST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH BRINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS LOW AS LATEST HRRR. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FAVORED LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IF WINDS DIE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED.

LATEST NAM BRINGS LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FAR SW CWA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY 09Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PCPN TO BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A
PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 500 FT AND 1K FT WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN EASING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LATEST NAM KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OUT OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS. STILL EXPECT THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE SITES BY 09Z....WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT SHIP OBS ARE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CRITERIA TO
DROP HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY FOR WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
FAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME MIXING WITH 5 TO 10
MPH WINDS DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN WI...BUT
THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE EAST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH BRINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS LOW AS LATEST HRRR. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FAVORED LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IF WINDS DIE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED.

LATEST NAM BRINGS LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FAR SW CWA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY 09Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PCPN TO BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A
PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 500 FT AND 1K FT WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN EASING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LATEST NAM KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OUT OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS. STILL EXPECT THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE SITES BY 09Z....WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT SHIP OBS ARE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CRITERIA TO
DROP HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY FOR WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KARX 202336
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPS AND ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE. LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SFCS
IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AS ANTICIPATED. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM
SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 202336
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT...KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND FAVORING LIGHT WINDS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
FAVORING A LOW SATURATION FRIDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS STRATUS DECK WOULD INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ADDITIONAL LIFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. WITH TEMPS AND ROADS SFCS BELOW ZERO...FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD BE THE PCPN TYPE. LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SFCS
IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AS ANTICIPATED. TEMPS QUICKLY WARM
SAT MORNING...AND THEN SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE...THE
INCREASE IN THE LOW SATURATION AND MILDER AIR COULD TRANSLATE INTO
AREAS OF FOG. ALREADY ANTICIPATING IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM THE
CLOUDS/PCPN...BUT THE FOG COULD FURTHER HINDER VISIBILITIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 202257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 454 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS...BUT WITH VFR CIGS...WL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW. WL INTRODUCE TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAFS...THOUGH
THE STRONGEST WIND SHEAR WON/T OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 454 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS...BUT WITH VFR CIGS...WL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW. WL INTRODUCE TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAFS...THOUGH
THE STRONGEST WIND SHEAR WON/T OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 454 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS...BUT WITH VFR CIGS...WL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW. WL INTRODUCE TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAFS...THOUGH
THE STRONGEST WIND SHEAR WON/T OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202257
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
457 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 454 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

GOOD FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...THOUGH IT WILL BE VERY COLD TONIGHT. LINGERING PATCHES
OF CLDS...BUT WITH VFR CIGS...WL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE LLWS BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW. WL INTRODUCE TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAFS...THOUGH
THE STRONGEST WIND SHEAR WON/T OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KMKX 202129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 202129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KGRB 202053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 202053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 202053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 202053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALLOWED CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THEY SHOULD
DIE OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR THE UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED 850MB/925MB MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DEPARTING AS A MID LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
STATE AND A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS. THIS SUPPORTS END OF SNOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD TONIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND NOT
MUCH WIND. WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
DEVELOP ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A PERIOD WHERE THE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM WILL BE
AT WORK LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON THE RISE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BLUSTERY
OR WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DOOR COUNTY WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION
SHOULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUALLY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO A MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED...MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK 850MB WARM
ADVECTION OR WEAK 700MB LIFT. CAN NOT DISCOUNT FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY WHERE AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
32 DEGREES.

MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 SATURDAY NIGHT...NEEDED TO HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PUMPING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO WISCONSIN. STILL SOME ISSUES ON TIMING
OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION IF THERE WOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE SAME IDEAL IN THE TIMING FOR NOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER MONDAY...BUT COLDEST AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...INCLUDING NORTHWEST VILAS
COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KARX 202051
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION...PROVIDED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL HELP TO
KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN OF BR FORMING TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT BR FORMATION.

REGARDING WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PLUS THE RIDGE BUILDING IN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 202051
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES FRI NIGHT...
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI/FRI NIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN MAN
TO THE MID MS VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES NEAR/EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 OF WI IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH
ALL THE SUNSHINE...COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE SNOW COVER WAS NOT
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. NOON READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI.

20.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/
FRI AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AND
WEAK/TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ENERGY TO COME ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT...FAVORING A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER
RUNS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...QUIET/COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION STARTS
TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT BUT BY THEN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
DECOUPLED UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. FRI MORNING LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE RECENT
WELL BELOW NORMAL STRING...WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND THE
SNOW COVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP TO NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. HIGH
QUICKLY SLIPS OFF FRI WITH SOUTH GRADIENT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE -2C
TO -6C RANGE BY 00Z SAT...THEN CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE -1C RANGE
/TAYLOR CO./ TO +2C TO +4C OVER THE SOUTH END OF THE FCST
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH AN INCREASE OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-
15MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MIXING. HIGHS FRI MAKE A RUN AT 30F IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING.

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC TO AROUND 850MB...INCREASES FRI NIGHT
WITH THE CONTINUED 925-850MB WARMING. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +5C
RANGE BY 12Z SAT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE 0C AT THE
COLDEST...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE CLOUDS. LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING PRODUCES SOME LIFT IN THE 925-700MB LAYER FRI
NIGHT...FOR A CONTINUED DZ/FZDZ MENTION IN THE FCST GRIDS.
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED
GROUND...ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER
LATER FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT
THEN USED A BLEND OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. LOWS FRI
NIGHT TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADY/SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP TYPES/CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MESSY LATE NOV
WEEKEND...WEATHER-WISE. 20.12Z OFFER A TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AS
ENERGY ON THE PAC NW COAST AT 12Z SAT DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z SUN...THEN DIGS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
MON. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF THE EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE
BY 12Z MON. TREND EJECTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF
TX AT 12Z SAT ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...THRU THE OH VALLEY
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. THIS WITH LESS APPARENT
PHASING WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

DZ/FZDZ SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...DRYING INDICATED AT 850MB...MAKING THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MARGINAL FOR DRIZZLE. SFC-850MB WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FOR SOME LIFT IN THE LAYER...BUT TEMPS CONTINUE
TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 30S-LOW 40S.
GIVEN THE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING OF THE FORCING/LIFT...
TRENDED THE DZ MENTION DOWN/OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA SAT.
BIGGER PROBLEM MAY BE FOG AS THE WARMING/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD/SNOW COVERED LANDSCAPE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXED
LAYER ALREADY HAS A FOG MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SPREADS INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATER SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN NIGHT. WITH THE FURTHER EAST/SOUTH TRACK OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...APPEARS THE DEEPER OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT
SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. FURTHER
MODEL SHIFTS MAY YET TAKE THIS MOISTURE MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA. COLUMN/BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN GOOD FOR NOW. AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM PORTION LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT...THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST/NORTHWEST ADVECTING COLDER AIR WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN NIGHT. COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS ENOUGH TO
CHANGE PRECIP SUN NIGHT TO SNOW. QUESTION IS...BY THE TIME THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HOW MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE SATURATED
COLUMN REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA. BULK OF ANY PRECIP SUN NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS STILL
ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SUN NIGHT...
PRECIP MAY BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE FCST AREA...WITH ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS QUITE MINOR. 50-70 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT
OKAY FOR NOW BUT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE THESE MAY END UP TOO
HIGH OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. IF LOW CLOUDS/FOG END
UP MORE PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD THIS PERIOD...HIGHS MAY BE A
CATEGORY TOO WARM AND LOWS A CATEGORY TOO COOL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...RETURN
OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 20.00Z AND 20.12Z IN GOOD AND IMPROVING
AGREEMENT MON ON LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THIS
FEATURE TO SLOWLY FILL/MOVE EAST MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. TREND MON
FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS THEN SLOWER OF EARLIER RUNS
TUE. REASONABLE CONSENSUS FOR EASTERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING FOR
WED...BUT DIFFERENCES BY WED WITH THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL NOAM. BY THU ECMWF/GFS AT ODDS
WITH WESTERN VS. EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...WITH EACH MAINTAINING
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS. DAY 4-7 CONFIDENCE AVERAGE
TO GOOD MON/TUE THEN NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU.

COLD SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE AREA MON INTO
TUE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF MOISTURE/LIFT/PRECIP TO PIVOT SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMN BACK TO BEING COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND MOISTURE/LIFT IS CLOSER TO/NORTH OF THE 850-500MB
LOW TROUGH OVER LK SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHEST -SN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MON/MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THRU THE FLOW...MUCH STRONGER IN THE ECMWF...SPREADS A ROUND
OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING...AND -SN
CHANCE INTO THE FCST AREA WED. WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE/LIFT TO
SATURATE SOME PORTION OF IT AND PRODUCE A SMALL -SN CHANCE. ECMWF
LINGERS THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA THU WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNING FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. AS MUCH AS A 10C SPREAD IN 850MB TEMPS OVER THE
AREA AT 28.00Z. GIVEN THE LESSER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS BY
WED/THU...SMALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THOSE WELL TRENDED TOO..THOUGH
IF GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THANKSGIVING DAY HIGHS WOULD BE TOO COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION...PROVIDED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL HELP TO
KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN OF BR FORMING TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT BR FORMATION.

REGARDING WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PLUS THE RIDGE BUILDING IN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....AJ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 201811
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CYCLONIC COLD FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND
SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN
MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO VILAS COUNTY TODAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. KEPT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY WITH RAPID WARMING AT 850 AND 925MB.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM AS QUICKLY DUE TO SNOW
COVERED GROUND AND TEMPERATURE INVERSION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE STILL MODEST TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES.  WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND ECMWF.  THEREAFTER...LARGE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN THE GUIDANCE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL ROLL WITH THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL ADVECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOWED IT
LAST NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IF SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES FROM A MID DECK
COME INTO PLAY.  THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CARRY OVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS
SATURATED BY 18Z.  EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...THE COLD GROUND MAY STILL SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO END SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SATURATION HEIGHTS FALL TO ONLY 900MB.  WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
SAT AFTERNOON.  AS THE FLOW BACKS SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29.  WILL DROP
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONFINE THEM TO THIS AREA.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AHEAD
OF THE LOW...STRONG FORCING AND PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A CHANGE OVER TO MIX AND SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW STILL SPINNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COULD LOOK AT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT.  THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S.  CONTINUED COLD ON
WEDNESDAY.  THEN LOOKING FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 201811
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CYCLONIC COLD FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND
SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN
MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO VILAS COUNTY TODAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. KEPT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY WITH RAPID WARMING AT 850 AND 925MB.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM AS QUICKLY DUE TO SNOW
COVERED GROUND AND TEMPERATURE INVERSION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE STILL MODEST TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES.  WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND ECMWF.  THEREAFTER...LARGE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN THE GUIDANCE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL ROLL WITH THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL ADVECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOWED IT
LAST NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IF SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES FROM A MID DECK
COME INTO PLAY.  THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CARRY OVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS
SATURATED BY 18Z.  EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...THE COLD GROUND MAY STILL SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO END SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SATURATION HEIGHTS FALL TO ONLY 900MB.  WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
SAT AFTERNOON.  AS THE FLOW BACKS SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29.  WILL DROP
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONFINE THEM TO THIS AREA.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AHEAD
OF THE LOW...STRONG FORCING AND PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A CHANGE OVER TO MIX AND SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW STILL SPINNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COULD LOOK AT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT.  THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S.  CONTINUED COLD ON
WEDNESDAY.  THEN LOOKING FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR AT MUCH OF
THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF VFR AND
MVFR CIGS...WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2500FT TO 3500FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN RETURN FLOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 201703
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 3 AM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 10 TO 19. A WEST WIND
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WAS PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM -7 TO
15. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL WAS -7 AT DEXTER MINNESOTA.

THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
DESPITE OF THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE LA CROSSE WI RECORD IS ALREADY
SAFE AND THE ROCHESTER RECORD CAN ONLY BE TIED. MORE ON THE
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THIS COLD SNAP...MANY OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE SUB-ZERO. THE ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY BEATABLE IS AT WINONA DAM 5A WHERE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT IS 8 BACK IN 2000.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY ABOVE 850 MB...SO
NOT SEEING ANY SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
BOTH AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AND THEN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE 30S...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW
925 MB. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST 3
NIGHTS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THIS NIGHT.
THE LAST 5 RUNS OF COBB DATA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ONCE AGAIN RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...AND THEN THIS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION...PROVIDED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL HELP
TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN OF BR FORMING TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT
BR FORMATION.

REGARDING WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PLUS THE RIDGE BUILDING IN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LA CROSSE/S /20 IN
1872 AND 1964/ IS STILL SAFE. OTHER COLD RECORDS COULD BE
JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

AUSTIN MN               15       1978
BLACK RIVER FALLS WI    26       2000
CHARLES CITY IA         17       1985
DECORAH IA              17       1985
FRIENDSHIP WI           24       1937
LANCASTER WI            20       1964
MONDOVI WI              19       1926
NEILLSVILLE WI          18       1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI     21       1937
PRESTON MN              20       1978
RICHLAND CENTER WI      20       1937
ROCHESTER MN            14       1985*
SPARTA WI               19       1978
VIROQUA WI              21       1978
WINONA DAM 5A MN        24       1996

* IT WAS 14 AT MIDNIGHT...SO THIS RECORD COULD ONLY BE TIED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 201703
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 3 AM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 10 TO 19. A WEST WIND
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WAS PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM -7 TO
15. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL WAS -7 AT DEXTER MINNESOTA.

THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
DESPITE OF THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE LA CROSSE WI RECORD IS ALREADY
SAFE AND THE ROCHESTER RECORD CAN ONLY BE TIED. MORE ON THE
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THIS COLD SNAP...MANY OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE SUB-ZERO. THE ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY BEATABLE IS AT WINONA DAM 5A WHERE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT IS 8 BACK IN 2000.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY ABOVE 850 MB...SO
NOT SEEING ANY SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
BOTH AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AND THEN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE 30S...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW
925 MB. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST 3
NIGHTS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THIS NIGHT.
THE LAST 5 RUNS OF COBB DATA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ONCE AGAIN RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...AND THEN THIS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION...PROVIDED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL HELP
TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN OF BR FORMING TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LIMIT
BR FORMATION.

REGARDING WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PLUS THE RIDGE BUILDING IN IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD GET BREEZY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT RST.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LA CROSSE/S /20 IN
1872 AND 1964/ IS STILL SAFE. OTHER COLD RECORDS COULD BE
JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

AUSTIN MN               15       1978
BLACK RIVER FALLS WI    26       2000
CHARLES CITY IA         17       1985
DECORAH IA              17       1985
FRIENDSHIP WI           24       1937
LANCASTER WI            20       1964
MONDOVI WI              19       1926
NEILLSVILLE WI          18       1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI     21       1937
PRESTON MN              20       1978
RICHLAND CENTER WI      20       1937
ROCHESTER MN            14       1985*
SPARTA WI               19       1978
VIROQUA WI              21       1978
WINONA DAM 5A MN        24       1996

* IT WAS 14 AT MIDNIGHT...SO THIS RECORD COULD ONLY BE TIED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
CLIMATE...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 201136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CYCLONIC COLD FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AND
SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN
MAY DRIFT SOUTH INTO VILAS COUNTY TODAY AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY. KEPT THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO IN MOST PLACES.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY WITH RAPID WARMING AT 850 AND 925MB.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM AS QUICKLY DUE TO SNOW
COVERED GROUND AND TEMPERATURE INVERSION. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE STILL MODEST TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES.  WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND ECMWF.  THEREAFTER...LARGE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN THE GUIDANCE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL ROLL WITH THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL ADVECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH THE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS DEEP AS MODELS SHOWED IT
LAST NIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IF SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES FROM A MID DECK
COME INTO PLAY.  THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CARRY OVER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS
SATURATED BY 18Z.  EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...THE COLD GROUND MAY STILL SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO END SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SATURATION HEIGHTS FALL TO ONLY 900MB.  WILL LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
SAT AFTERNOON.  AS THE FLOW BACKS SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PUSH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29.  WILL DROP
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONFINE THEM TO THIS AREA.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AHEAD
OF THE LOW...STRONG FORCING AND PWATS APPROACHING AN INCH WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  PLENTY OF
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL COLD
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  A CHANGE OVER TO MIX AND SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOW STILL SPINNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COULD LOOK AT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE
EFFECT.  THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S.  CONTINUED COLD ON
WEDNESDAY.  THEN LOOKING FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET IN MOST PLACES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER UPPER MICHIGAN COULD DRIFT
SOUTH TO D25/LNL/EGV/ARV TODAY AND PRODUCE BRIEF IFR. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR WEATHER FRIDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KARX 201126
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
526 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 3 AM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 10 TO 19. A WEST WIND
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WAS PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM -7 TO
15. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL WAS -7 AT DEXTER MINNESOTA.

THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
DESPITE OF THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE LA CROSSE WI RECORD IS ALREADY
SAFE AND THE ROCHESTER RECORD CAN ONLY BE TIED. MORE ON THE
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THIS COLD SNAP...MANY OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE SUB-ZERO. THE ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY BEATABLE IS AT WINONA DAM 5A WHERE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT IS 8 BACK IN 2000.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY ABOVE 850 MB...SO
NOT SEEING ANY SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
BOTH AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AND THEN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE 30S...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW
925 MB. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST 3
NIGHTS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THIS NIGHT.
THE LAST 5 RUNS OF COBB DATA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ONCE AGAIN RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...AND THEN THIS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AT
KLSE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND
THEN START TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES BY THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LA CROSSE/S /20 IN
1872 AND 1964/ IS STILL SAFE. OTHER COLD RECORDS COULD BE
JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

AUSTIN MN               15       1978
BLACK RIVER FALLS WI    26       2000
CHARLES CITY IA         17       1985
DECORAH IA              17       1985
FRIENDSHIP WI           24       1937
LANCASTER WI            20       1964
MONDOVI WI              19       1926
NEILLSVILLE WI          18       1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI     21       1937
PRESTON MN              20       1978
RICHLAND CENTER WI      20       1937
ROCHESTER MN            14       1985*
SPARTA WI               19       1978
VIROQUA WI              21       1978
WINONA DAM 5A MN        24       1996

* IT WAS 14 AT MIDNIGHT...SO THIS RECORD COULD ONLY BE TIED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 201126
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
526 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 3 AM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 10 TO 19. A WEST WIND
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WAS PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM -7 TO
15. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL WAS -7 AT DEXTER MINNESOTA.

THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
DESPITE OF THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE LA CROSSE WI RECORD IS ALREADY
SAFE AND THE ROCHESTER RECORD CAN ONLY BE TIED. MORE ON THE
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THIS COLD SNAP...MANY OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE SUB-ZERO. THE ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY BEATABLE IS AT WINONA DAM 5A WHERE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT IS 8 BACK IN 2000.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY ABOVE 850 MB...SO
NOT SEEING ANY SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
BOTH AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AND THEN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE 30S...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW
925 MB. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST 3
NIGHTS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THIS NIGHT.
THE LAST 5 RUNS OF COBB DATA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ONCE AGAIN RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...AND THEN THIS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AT
KLSE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND
THEN START TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES BY THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LA CROSSE/S /20 IN
1872 AND 1964/ IS STILL SAFE. OTHER COLD RECORDS COULD BE
JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

AUSTIN MN               15       1978
BLACK RIVER FALLS WI    26       2000
CHARLES CITY IA         17       1985
DECORAH IA              17       1985
FRIENDSHIP WI           24       1937
LANCASTER WI            20       1964
MONDOVI WI              19       1926
NEILLSVILLE WI          18       1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI     21       1937
PRESTON MN              20       1978
RICHLAND CENTER WI      20       1937
ROCHESTER MN            14       1985*
SPARTA WI               19       1978
VIROQUA WI              21       1978
WINONA DAM 5A MN        24       1996

* IT WAS 14 AT MIDNIGHT...SO THIS RECORD COULD ONLY BE TIED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE...BOYNE




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