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000
FXUS63 KGRB 211155
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
655 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

DENSE FOG HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI. HAVE INCREASED THE FOG COVERAGE THE IN
THE GRIDS/ZFP...AND ENHANCED THE WORDING IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED...AS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN
A COUPLE HOURS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF TSTMS TODAY...
AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WARM
FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF GRB CWA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WAS LEADING
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. ALTHOUGH MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO ALLOWING FOG TO FORM THERE. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER
PARTS OF C/EC WI...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAD FORMED OVER SE MN AND NORTHERN IA...
DUE TO AN APPROACHING SFC LOW AND A WEAK S/W TROF.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. PLAN TO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...AND THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO WI. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S -2 TO -4
AFFECTING THE SW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES WILL RESIDE OVER
C/EC WI DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...
SUSPECT THAT THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND DECIDE IF QPF AMOUNTS NEED TO BE INCREASED. PCPN
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE TODAY...S-SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

THE FRONTAL PCPN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...
BUT STRONG CAA AND NW WINDS MAY LEAD TO SCT LAKE-EFFECT FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC WI OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 30S.

A PARTLY CLOUDY...COOLER AND BLUSTERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...AND THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER IN EXITING A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO THE
GENERATION OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN UPSTREAM OF THIS DEEP UPPER
LOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY...FORWARD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS
SLOWED.  PREFER THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR LATER PERIODS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS.  HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE...BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THAT SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
WARM FRONT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL FGEN
ALONG THE THETAE GRADIENT.  THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WILL HAVE EAST WINDS OUT OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.  REMAIN
SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SO QUICKLY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE GOING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER RETURN FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
DROP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
LOW...40+ KNOTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL BE RIDING OVER THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE.  DESPITE THE GREAT DYNAMICS...850-700MB THETAE LAPSE
RATES ARE POSITIVE AND ELEVATED CAPES ARE UNDER 50 J/KG...INDICATIVE
OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.  THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREAT DYNAMICS...BUT ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS REALLY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.  THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND WITHIN THE DRY SLOT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  ONCE THE FRONT EXITS...COMMA HEAD PRECIP
WILL WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING BY THIS
SAME TIME...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THEN COOL AND DRY NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH.  MORE PRECIP IS
THEN POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE RHI/AUW/CWA/GRB TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z-14Z...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE PCPN WILL END
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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000
FXUS63 KARX 211125
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WHICH IS IN A BROAD CHANNEL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 21.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
HIGHEST 0-3KM MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AT 20-30KTS...SO ANY STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ARE PULSEY AND COLLAPSE RATHER QUICKLY.

THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 21.06Z RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF ARE ALL IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THIS
FRONT IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND NOON AND THEN CLEAR OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THOUGH THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS AND 21.06Z RAP LIKELY DEVELOP TOO
HIGH OF MUCAPE WITH THEM SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING UP TO
THE LOW 60S WHEN THEY WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE MID 50S. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW THAT THIS INSTABILITY IS IN THE 0C TO -20C PORTION
OF THE SOUNDINGS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THIS CONVECTION DESPITE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINING WEAK AT
20-30KT.

ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THERE IS A SOLID SLUG OF DRIER AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
OF AN INITIAL DROP SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS KICKING IN. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
WITH THIS DRY AIR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME 35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MN/NE IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE MIDDLE TO END PORTION OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE TOWARD THE LATER
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES STILL DO NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BUT DO INCREASE PW VALUES UP
TO AROUND 1-1.50" EARLY ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL...HAVE UPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE 70-85 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND AN INCH.

GUIDANCE STARTS TO DEVIATE QUITE A BIT STARTING FRIDAY WITH THE
21.00Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND KEEPS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION ON INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE A COLDER/DRIER ONE FOR US WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION THAT STILL
COULD BRING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES IN WITH IT. CURRENTLY...WPC IS
FAVORING THE GFS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT TIME WILL TELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE DONE A BLEND WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THERE
FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 126Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BAND OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
ROUGHLY 12-15Z AT KRST AND 16-19Z AT KLSE. MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED
IN THE SHRA/TSRA AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS IN
THE SHRA/TSRA/BR. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THRU...BRISK/GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE TAF SITES...WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z AT KRST AND 20Z AT KLSE. THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO MN/WI/IA. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY BR AROUND SUNRISE TUE TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SMALL CLIMB IN AREA RIVERS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN AROUND MID WEEK
WHICH COULD DROP A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SECOND CREST
ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 210905
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
405 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS AND THE THREAT OF TSTMS TODAY...
AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A WARM
FRONT WAS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF GRB CWA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WAS LEADING
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED. ALTHOUGH MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WERE ALSO ALLOWING FOG TO FORM THERE. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER
PARTS OF C/EC WI...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAD FORMED OVER SE MN AND NORTHERN IA...
DUE TO AN APPROACHING SFC LOW AND A WEAK S/W TROF.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING. PLAN TO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...AND THE
RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO WI. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LI`S -2 TO -4
AFFECTING THE SW HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES WILL RESIDE OVER
C/EC WI DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...
SUSPECT THAT THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND DECIDE IF QPF AMOUNTS NEED TO BE INCREASED. PCPN
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE TODAY...S-SW
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

THE FRONTAL PCPN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...
BUT STRONG CAA AND NW WINDS MAY LEAD TO SCT LAKE-EFFECT FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC WI OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 30S.

A PARTLY CLOUDY...COOLER AND BLUSTERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY...AND THEN THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER IN EXITING A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO THE
GENERATION OF A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN UPSTREAM OF THIS DEEP UPPER
LOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY...FORWARD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS
SLOWED.  PREFER THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR LATER PERIODS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS.  HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE...BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THAT SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
WARM FRONT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS REMAIN
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL FGEN
ALONG THE THETAE GRADIENT.  THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WILL HAVE EAST WINDS OUT OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.  REMAIN
SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SO QUICKLY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE GOING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER RETURN FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT/FGEN
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL
DROP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE
LOW...40+ KNOTS OF 850MB FLOW WILL BE RIDING OVER THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IN A REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF A DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE.  DESPITE THE GREAT DYNAMICS...850-700MB THETAE LAPSE
RATES ARE POSITIVE AND ELEVATED CAPES ARE UNDER 50 J/KG...INDICATIVE
OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.  THERE
SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREAT DYNAMICS...BUT ANY
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS REALLY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.  THE BEST CHANCE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND WITHIN THE DRY SLOT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  ONCE THE FRONT EXITS...COMMA HEAD PRECIP
WILL WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  COLDER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING BY THIS
SAME TIME...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.  THEN COOL AND DRY NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HUDSON BAY HIGH.  MORE PRECIP IS
THEN POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. ISOLD TSRA ALSO LIKELY TO MV ACRS THE S. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONT OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN
TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE E. WL WORK THESE TRENDS INTO THE NEW TAFS.
PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING...WITH VSBYS
OCCASIONALLY DOWN INTO THE LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORY AT SOME SPOTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST ON PRECIP THREAT TODAY.  WATER VAPOR PLUME OF
DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SPREADING INTO WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT.  COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES TODAY OVER SRN WI...AHEAD OF SHARPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  PWAT VALUES AT THIS RANGE FOR MID-APRIL ARE ABOUT
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT KGRB. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG OVER SRN WI WITH
MORE -SHRA INCREASING UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST IA INTO WRN IL.  WL
KEEP SCT OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
WITH LIKELY WORDING CONTINUING IN THE FAR WEST CLOSER TO BETTER
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.

LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...PHASING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN VICINITY OF ND/MN BORDER INTO SRN CANADA
WITH WEAKER WAVE MOVING THROUGH SRN STREAM.  LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT VALUES REMAIN LESS THAN
10 UNITS.  CONSIDERING THAT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
BRUSHES PORTIONS OF SRN WI LATER TODAY...RATHER SURPRISED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE NOT A LITTLE STRONGER.  NEVER THE LESS...WITH DEEP
COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE...THINK SHOWERS AND SCT T WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...SO INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  MUCAPE INCREASES TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG
BUT BULK SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  NOT IMPOSSIBLE STRONGER T MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL LATER TODAY.  ALSO...CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO
15 KNOTS DURING PEAK FORCING.  WARM CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS LESS THAN 7K
FEET...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL BOUTS OF MODERATE
SHRA/T THAT MAY RESULT IN ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
CAUSING LOCALIZED MINOR STREET FLOODING.

SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER...COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN.  WL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES.  BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

.TUESDAY  CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING.
LOW LEVEL COLD POOL LINGERS FOR THE DAY WITH 850 TEMPS A DEGREE OR
SO EITHER SIDE OF 0C. 925 TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AT ONLY 4-7C.
THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS OF ONLY IN THE 50S AT INLAND AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCE. MANY LAKESHORE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO
STAY IN THE 40S. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AS WELL AS MOS SHOWING A MUCH
MORE GLANCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL RH..MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST EARLY
ON. HOWEVER MOS AND BUFKIT ARE REALLY SHOWING A VERY PARCHED LOOK
SO LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER
850 JET CORE WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z WITH DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE VAST AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME EAST OF THE LLJ AXIS. THE NAM IS MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THIS REGARD ESP IN THE ERN CWA...WITH THE GFS
STILL SHOWING DRY AIR THOUGH NOT AS DEEP. MODELS ARE IN SYNC WITH
KEEPING PRECIP LARGELY WEST OF CWA THROUGH 18Z...THEN SOME
DIVERGENCE OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GEM/NAM ARE SLUGGISH TO
EXPAND PRECIP INTO THE EAST...WHICH HAS MERIT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF
DRY AIR ON THE PROGGD SOUNDINGS...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BRING QPF
ALL THE WAY INTO ERN WI. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF HAVING HIGHEST
POPS IN THE WEST...IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ RAMPS UP AND TRANSLATES EAST INTO WI. GREATEST MOISTURE
INFLUX ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ AND OVERALL PROGGD POSITION OF LLJ
DYNAMICS FAVORS PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN WI FOR THE BETTER/MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS WITH BEST DCVA FROM
LATE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE HOURS. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON POSITIONING
OF SFC LOW CENTER WITH THE GFS MORE OF BLEND OF THE SRN ECMWF AND
MORE NW GEM SOLUTIONS. CWASP VALUES ARE NOW JUST SHOWING 50S WITH
THE BETTER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE STATE WHICH IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO
NOT SHOWING A VAST AMOUNT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. SO WHILE A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED...CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED SVR IS
RATHER LOW AT THE MOMENT.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW PRESSURE
SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. SO EXPECTING A SHOWERY REGIME TO
LINGER. SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY LIKELY TO BE ENHANCING LIFT IN
ADDITION TO THE SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXES COMING INTO PLAY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF THE ERN UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THAT FEATURE WITH A RENEWED TROUGH MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS AND SETTING UP AN ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EVENT FROM IOWA INTO ILLINOIS WITH SRN WI ON THE
NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP. ALLBLEND POPS TO HANDLE THIS FOR NOW WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTREME SW CWA SATURDAY AND EXPANDING CWA
WIDE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BULK OF
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  HOWEVER LIKELY TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
AFFECTING TAF SITES.  BEST CHANCE LATER THIS MRNG THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTN WHEN SCT T WILL BE IN THE VICINITY.  BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY SHRA/T AS WELL WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.  PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY AFFECT KMSN EARLY THIS MRNG AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LAKE MI LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE CAUSING WINDS TO
CONTINUE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.  ENOUGH OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR
BEHIND FRONT TO CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR
TNGT THRU TUE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 210823
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WHICH IS IN A BROAD CHANNEL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 21.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
HIGHEST 0-3KM MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S. 0-6KM
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AT 20-30KTS...SO ANY STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ARE PULSEY AND COLLAPSE RATHER QUICKLY.

THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 21.06Z RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF ARE ALL IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THIS
FRONT IS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND NOON AND THEN CLEAR OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THOUGH THE 21.00Z NAM/GFS AND 21.06Z RAP LIKELY DEVELOP TOO
HIGH OF MUCAPE WITH THEM SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING UP TO
THE LOW 60S WHEN THEY WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE MID 50S. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW THAT THIS INSTABILITY IS IN THE 0C TO -20C PORTION
OF THE SOUNDINGS...SO THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL THAT DEVELOPS
FROM THIS CONVECTION DESPITE 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINING WEAK AT
20-30KT.

ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH...THERE IS A SOLID SLUG OF DRIER AIR
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE TOO MUCH
OF AN INITIAL DROP SINCE THE FRONT IS COMING THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR QUICKER WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS KICKING IN. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL
WITH THIS DRY AIR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME 35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE MN/NE IA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE MIDDLE TO END PORTION OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE TOWARD THE LATER
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LEAD WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERMAL PROFILES STILL DO NOT
SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY BUT DO INCREASE PW VALUES UP
TO AROUND 1-1.50" EARLY ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONSISTENT
SIGNAL...HAVE UPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE 70-85 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TOTAL QPF VALUES EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND AN INCH.

GUIDANCE STARTS TO DEVIATE QUITE A BIT STARTING FRIDAY WITH THE
21.00Z GFS SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE 21.00Z ECMWF IS
WEAKER WITH THIS RIDGE AND KEEPS A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION ON INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE A COLDER/DRIER ONE FOR US WHILE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A WETTER/SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION THAT STILL
COULD BRING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES IN WITH IT. CURRENTLY...WPC IS
FAVORING THE GFS MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT TIME WILL TELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE DONE A BLEND WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THERE
FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SITUATED
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG US-20...ARE INCHING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM NOW THROUGH 14-16Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS. SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
HANGING AT EITHER TAF SITE FOR MORE THAN 1 OR 2 HOURS IS LOW...
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS THE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BR AROUND THE TAF SITES...ENOUGH
TO KNOCK LSE DOWN TO MVFR. MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE THE GENERAL
RULE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PLAN ON CEILINGS TO STAY VFR.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR COMES IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 KT. PLAN ON THE WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH AROUND 01Z
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WIND LOOKS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS LEAD
TO A SMALL CLIMB IN AREA RIVERS...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME IN AROUND MID WEEK
WHICH COULD DROP A WIDESPREAD AREA OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SECOND CREST
ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 210414
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. MANY MODELS STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HAVE THE CONVECTION WHERE IT WAS. MOST THOUGHT IT WOULD BE CLOSER
TO I-90 INSTEAD OF NORTHERN IOWA. BELIEVE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION WAS A RESULT OF COOL AIR OUTFLOW...WHICH CAN
DEFINITELY BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND DUBUQUE.

NOW THERE IS A WARM FRONT RE-INFORCED BY THAT COOL AIR OUTFLOW
SITUATED ALONG US-20. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...NOT STRONG...BUT ONE NONETHELESS. THIS
LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP TO PROPEL THE WARM FRONT NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH ITS COOL AIR OUTFLOW
HOLDING BACK THE FRONT. THUS THE CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN IOWA MAY NOT MOVE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE 925-850MB FLOW IS SOUTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN IT TURNS
WESTERLY. SO IT WOULD APPEAR UNTIL 08-09Z IS THE TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO MOVE NORTH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.1
INCHES WHILE MUCAPE STANDS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BEING LIFTED INTO
THE BOUNDARY. THE MUCAPE SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
BUT PLENTY ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. THE MUCAPE CERTAINLY
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A DEEP UPDRAFT...NOR IS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH ENOUGH TO GET BIG RAINS. STILL...THE
TRAINING CONCERN TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES RAISE SOME SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS OF HYDROLOGY ISSUES. SO FAR RIVERS HAVE NOT RESPONDED TO
RECENT RAIN WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. WELL JUST HAVE TO KEEP A MONITOR
FOR ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...SITUATED
JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG US-20...ARE INCHING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAF SITES. ITS POSSIBLE FOR THESE SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM NOW THROUGH 14-16Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS. SINCE CONFIDENCE OF THESE SHOWERS
HANGING AT EITHER TAF SITE FOR MORE THAN 1 OR 2 HOURS IS LOW...
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A VCSH. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS THE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BR AROUND THE TAF SITES...ENOUGH
TO KNOCK LSE DOWN TO MVFR. MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE THE GENERAL
RULE UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PLAN ON CEILINGS TO STAY VFR.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...DRIER AIR COMES IN ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 25 KT. PLAN ON THE WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH AROUND 01Z
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WIND LOOKS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR FLOWING IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...04/AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 210355
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TRYING TO DECIPHER TIMING OF PCPN BANDS TNGT AND MON CONT TO BE
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH. TEMPS AND THUNDER THREAT ALSO
HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL MN NE THRU N-CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA...WHILE TWO
OTHER SFC LOWS WERE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE IA
NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC HAD PICKED UP A BAND OF SHWRS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS (PSBL TSTM) ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI TNGT. OVERALL FORCING AND
LIFT REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED. FORCING DOES
INCREASE A BIT LATER TNGT AS A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. N-CNTRL WI COULD VERY
WELL STAY DRY TNGT...BUT THIS LEADS TO FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT WITH THE
NORTHWOODS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 DEGS.

SHWR/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON MORNING OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS
TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WI...DISPLACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR THE PCPN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI/PARTS OF CNTRL WI BEHIND THE CDFNT.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL ON MON WITH CAPES PUSHING 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN THE FCST. MILD START TO THE DAY WL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S (50S LAKESIDE) EVEN AS WINDS TURN NW
AND WEAK CAA STARTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION...AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO MID WEEK WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE ISSUES INCREASE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. COOL NIGHT
IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.

PROGS CONTINUE TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL WAA AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME COOL DRY AIR OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL AT THIS
TIME TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO HAIL POTENTIAL FROM LOW WET BULB PARAMETERS.
WHILE LI/S APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...GFS TOTAL TOTALS NEAR THE
MID 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD OR OCCLUDED
FRONT. LATEST ECMWF CONFINES BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EACH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. A H850 WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. ISOLD TSRA ALSO LIKELY TO MV ACRS THE S. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONT OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN
TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE E. WL WORK THESE TRENDS INTO THE NEW TAFS.
PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING...WITH VSBYS
OCCASIONALLY DOWN INTO THE LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORY AT SOME SPOTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 210354
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TRYING TO DECIPHER TIMING OF PCPN BANDS TNGT AND MON CONT TO BE
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH. TEMPS AND THUNDER THREAT ALSO
HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL MN NE THRU N-CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA...WHILE TWO
OTHER SFC LOWS WERE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE IA
NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC HAD PICKED UP A BAND OF SHWRS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS (PSBL TSTM) ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI TNGT. OVERALL FORCING AND
LIFT REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED. FORCING DOES
INCREASE A BIT LATER TNGT AS A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. N-CNTRL WI COULD VERY
WELL STAY DRY TNGT...BUT THIS LEADS TO FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT WITH THE
NORTHWOODS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 DEGS.

SHWR/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON MORNING OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS
TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WI...DISPLACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR THE PCPN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI/PARTS OF CNTRL WI BEHIND THE CDFNT.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL ON MON WITH CAPES PUSHING 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN THE FCST. MILD START TO THE DAY WL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S (50S LAKESIDE) EVEN AS WINDS TURN NW
AND WEAK CAA STARTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION...AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO MID WEEK WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE ISSUES INCREASE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. COOL NIGHT
IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.

PROGS CONTINUE TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL WAA AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME COOL DRY AIR OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL AT THIS
TIME TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO HAIL POTENTIAL FROM LOW WET BULB PARAMETERS.
WHILE LI/S APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...GFS TOTAL TOTALS NEAR THE
MID 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD OR OCCLUDED
FRONT. LATEST ECMWF CONFINES BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EACH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. A H850 WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. ISOLD TSRA ALSO LIKELY TO MV ACRS THE S. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONT OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN
TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE E. WL WORK THESE TRENDS INTO THE NEW TAFS.
PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING...WITH VSBYS
OCCASIONALLY DOWN INTO THE LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORY AT SOME SPOTS.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KMKX 210354
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1054 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LA CROSSE TO GREEN BAY TODAY. 925-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE 500MB FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ARE ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE UPWARD MOTION/OMEGA AND RESULTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT
THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THEN
WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE FROM EASTERN IOWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POP UP
ANYWHERE IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MADISON TO SHEBOYGAN LINE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO
THE INCREASING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TRACK THROUGH IL AND SOUTHERN WI MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ALSO USHER
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE CAPE COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE LAST OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION THEN KICKS IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS OFFER DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION CLOUDINESS WE/LL SEE. BELIEVE
THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SO TUESDAY
LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE A SLIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL COOL
IT DOWN EVEN MORE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COULD PUSH SOME TEMPS DOWN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BY MORNING WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON AS THE RETURN FLOW IS
QUICK AND PRONOUNCED. SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING A DRY LOWER LEVEL
WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THAT FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT VERY
CHILLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECTED AIRMASS.
A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING ACROSS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
OF WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OMEGA
RESPONSE SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CASE OF A
LEADING WARM FRONT GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS THE LAKE
ENHANCED COLD AIRMASS WILL BE TOUGH TO BUDGE. THE TRIPLE POINT
SHOULD THEN ROLL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. CLEARLY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DOWN SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS BUT IT/S NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE FOR SPC TO HIGHLIGHT.
IN ANY EVENT...IT LOOKS WET ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY
OUT OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS SAYING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EC
SAYS THE LOW WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES.
STAY TUNED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE STATIONARY FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL WI...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A DLL TO FLD LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF
MADISON.

LIGHTER WINDS AND AREA SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR VSBY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON WHEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THESE SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI NW TO SE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WI. THEY WILL CHANGE FROM SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KARX 202344
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BECOMING A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
MAY NOT MOVE MUCH TONIGHT. MANY MODELS STRUGGLED THIS AFTERNOON TO
HAVE THE CONVECTION WHERE IT WAS. MOST THOUGHT IT WOULD BE CLOSER
TO I-90 INSTEAD OF NORTHERN IOWA. BELIEVE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION WAS A RESULT OF COOL AIR OUTFLOW...WHICH CAN
DEFINITELY BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LA CROSSE AND DUBUQUE.

NOW THERE IS A WARM FRONT RE-INFORCED BY THAT COOL AIR OUTFLOW
SITUATED ALONG US-20. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...NOT STRONG...BUT ONE NONETHELESS. THIS
LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP TO PROPEL THE WARM FRONT NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY HELP TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH ITS COOL AIR OUTFLOW
HOLDING BACK THE FRONT. THUS THE CONCERN THAT THE CONVECTION
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN IOWA MAY NOT MOVE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE 925-850MB FLOW IS SOUTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN IT TURNS
WESTERLY. SO IT WOULD APPEAR UNTIL 08-09Z IS THE TIME FOR THE
FRONT TO MOVE NORTH.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.1
INCHES WHILE MUCAPE STANDS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG BEING LIFTED INTO
THE BOUNDARY. THE MUCAPE SHOULD SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
BUT PLENTY ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. THE MUCAPE CERTAINLY
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE A DEEP UPDRAFT...NOR IS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HIGH ENOUGH TO GET BIG RAINS. STILL...THE
TRAINING CONCERN TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES RAISE SOME SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS OF HYDROLOGY ISSUES. SO FAR RIVERS HAVE NOT RESPONDED TO
RECENT RAIN WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. WELL JUST HAVE TO KEEP A MONITOR
FOR ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AVIATION FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN ON THE PRECIPITATION SIDE OF
THINGS...PRIMARILY BECAUSE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN MOST COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST. THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT HAS LAID UP NEAR US-20 IN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE DUE TO THAT CONTINUED REGENERATION OF
SHOWERS TO ITS NORTH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS TONIGHT OF INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO HELP PROPEL THE FRONT NORTHWARD...
CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH TAF SITES
WOULD SEE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AM
VERY CONCERNED THIS PRECIPITATION MAY STAY STUCK SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED THE TAF FORECAST MORE OPTIMISTIC.
IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WOULD STAND
TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE TAF SITES TO PICK UP PRECIPITATION
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. IN ITS WAKE...SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS UP TO 25 KT.

ONE OTHER THING THAT NEEDS MONITORING IS IF SKIES CAN CLEAR AT THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR...FOG IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME...WITH EITHER PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH OR DEBRIS CLOUD FROM PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...04/AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 202227
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
527 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TRYING TO DECIPHER TIMING OF PCPN BANDS TNGT AND MON CONT TO BE
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH. TEMPS AND THUNDER THREAT ALSO
HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL MN NE THRU N-CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA...WHILE TWO
OTHER SFC LOWS WERE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE IA
NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC HAD PICKED UP A BAND OF SHWRS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS (PSBL TSTM) ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI TNGT. OVERALL FORCING AND
LIFT REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED. FORCING DOES
INCREASE A BIT LATER TNGT AS A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. N-CNTRL WI COULD VERY
WELL STAY DRY TNGT...BUT THIS LEADS TO FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT WITH THE
NORTHWOODS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 DEGS.

SHWR/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON MORNING OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS
TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WI...DISPLACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR THE PCPN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI/PARTS OF CNTRL WI BEHIND THE CDFNT.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL ON MON WITH CAPES PUSHING 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN THE FCST. MILD START TO THE DAY WL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S (50S LAKESIDE) EVEN AS WINDS TURN NW
AND WEAK CAA STARTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION...AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO MID WEEK WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE ISSUES INCREASE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. COOL NIGHT
IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.

PROGS CONTINUE TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL WAA AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME COOL DRY AIR OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL AT THIS
TIME TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO HAIL POTENTIAL FROM LOW WET BULB PARAMETERS.
WHILE LI/S APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...GFS TOTAL TOTALS NEAR THE
MID 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD OR OCCLUDED
FRONT. LATEST ECMWF CONFINES BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EACH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. A H850 WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BAND OF MOISTURE/CLDS/PCPN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA FM THE NW WL CONT ACRS SW-EC WI THIS EVENING. RADAR SUGGESTS
A LULL WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACRS THE
AREA...WITH PATCHES OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE PCPN. COULD SEE
SOME MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACRS THE N LATE TNGT
UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...BUT IT WL TAKE QUITE A WHILE FOR
TEMPS TO FALL TO TD/S AS MIXING INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT OCCURRED THIS
AFTN AND RH/S WERE NOW QUITE LOW.

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 202031
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TRYING TO DECIPHER TIMING OF PCPN BANDS TNGT AND MON CONT TO BE
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH. TEMPS AND THUNDER THREAT ALSO
HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL MN NE THRU N-CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA...WHILE TWO
OTHER SFC LOWS WERE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE IA
NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC HAD PICKED UP A BAND OF SHWRS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS (PSBL TSTM) ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI TNGT. OVERALL FORCING AND
LIFT REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED. FORCING DOES
INCREASE A BIT LATER TNGT AS A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. N-CNTRL WI COULD VERY
WELL STAY DRY TNGT...BUT THIS LEADS TO FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT WITH THE
NORTHWOODS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 DEGS.

SHWR/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON MORNING OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS
TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WI...DISPLACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR THE PCPN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI/PARTS OF CNTRL WI BEHIND THE CDFNT.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL ON MON WITH CAPES PUSHING 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN THE FCST. MILD START TO THE DAY WL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S (50S LAKESIDE) EVEN AS WINDS TURN NW
AND WEAK CAA STARTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION...AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO MID WEEK WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE ISSUES INCREASE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. COOL NIGHT
IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.

PROGS CONTINUE TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL WAA AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME COOL DRY AIR OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL AT THIS
TIME TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO HAIL POTENTIAL FROM LOW WET BULB PARAMETERS.
WHILE LI/S APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...GFS TOTAL TOTALS NEAR THE
MID 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD OR OCCLUDED
FRONT. LATEST ECMWF CONFINES BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EACH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. A H850 WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS TO CONT FROM SW TO E-CNTRL WI THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TNGT BEFORE FINALLY GETTING A PUSH SWD BY A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER
LATE TNGT OR EARLY MON. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS TO IMPACT
THE MAJORITY OF THE NE WI TAF SITES WITH RHI THE EXCEPTION AS THE
PCPN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE RHI MAY REMAIN DRY...THE
COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW... MODEST DEW PTS AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD LEAD TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON
MON WL BRING ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR RAIN SHWRS ON MON WITH ENUF
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TSTMS AS WELL. WHILE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL FCST FOR MON...ANY HEAVIER SHWR
OR TSTM WOULD SEND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KMKX 202014
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LA CROSSE TO GREEN BAY TODAY. 925-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE 500MB FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ARE ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE UPWARD MOTION/OMEGA AND RESULTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS BEING REPORTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT
THAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THEN
WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE FROM EASTERN IOWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO POP UP
ANYWHERE IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MADISON TO SHEBOYGAN LINE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S DUE TO
THE INCREASING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TRACK THROUGH IL AND SOUTHERN WI MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ALSO USHER
THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE CAPE COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE LAST OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION THEN KICKS IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS OFFER DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION CLOUDINESS WE/LL SEE. BELIEVE
THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE EAST. SO TUESDAY
LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE
WHERE A SLIGHT NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL COOL
IT DOWN EVEN MORE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE COULD PUSH SOME TEMPS DOWN TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST BY MORNING WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ARRIVING BY AFTERNOON AS THE RETURN FLOW IS
QUICK AND PRONOUNCED. SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL BE BATTLING A DRY LOWER LEVEL
WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THAT FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP IT VERY
CHILLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECTED AIRMASS.
A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING ACROSS A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
OF WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OMEGA
RESPONSE SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC CASE OF A
LEADING WARM FRONT GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTH AS THE LAKE
ENHANCED COLD AIRMASS WILL BE TOUGH TO BUDGE. THE TRIPLE POINT
SHOULD THEN ROLL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. CLEARLY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DOWN SOUTH ACROSS
ILLINOIS BUT IT/S NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE FOR SPC TO HIGHLIGHT.
IN ANY EVENT...IT LOOKS WET ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY
OUT OF THE AREA.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATER ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE GFS SAYING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EC
SAYS THE LOW WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE PRECIP CHANCES.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE STATIONARY FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL WI...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A DLL TO FLD LINE...WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST AND NORTH OF
MADISON.

LIGHTER WINDS AND AREA SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR VSBY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON WHEN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THESE SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI NW TO SE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT SAGS DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WI. THEY WILL CHANGE FROM SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHERLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KARX 202006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND IS OVER THE
VERY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL AND REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.

GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...EXPECT THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WITH THE AREA
SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETTING EJECTED OUT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WAVE
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
WILL BE WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM WITH SOME VERY WEAK PV ADVECTION
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH THE SOUTHWEST WAVE. WEAK TO AT
TIMES MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 3 TO 5 UBAR/S WILL OCCUR
INTO AND OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS LEVEL IS NOT VERY STRONG AND IS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND NOT INTO IT. WITH THE WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
GOING TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME THUNDER FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAPE IN PLACE. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
RIDGE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY STRONG AND CAUSE A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
FORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. THIS NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING. DIFFERENCES THEN BETWEEN THE 20.12Z
ECMWF AND GFS ON HOW STRONG THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING WILL BE WITH
THE ECMWF WEAKER ALLOWING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS RUNOFF FROM
UPSTREAM SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAIN RUNOFF MOVES DOWNSTREAM.
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 201742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THIS COMPLEX WILL PUSH
EAST OF KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KLSE BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER CLOUDS OUT AND END
PRECIP THREAT. WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING...AND LINGERING
BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT WONT TAKE TOO MUCH TO REIGNITE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN MORE SO...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...REINFORCING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LIFT. EXPECTING HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THREAT FOR THUNDER CONTINUES BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z OR SO...THEN
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG/BR AT KRST AND POSSIBLY KLSE...AND HAVE
REDUCED VISBYS DOWN TO LOW END MVFR...BUT COULD SEE 1-2SM AT TIMES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE LOW
LEVELS AND BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 201732
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WSTRN LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH FAR NW WI AND CENTRAL MN. A WARM FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS EVIDENCED BY EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORCING WITH RRQ OF A 90
KT JET...AND WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT
LLJ.

DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST...AND 850 MB FLOW
VEERS WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THINK THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
ATTEMPT TO REORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
REDEVELOPS...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES. A MILD DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE LKSHR.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...IN THE VCNTY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE MILD AGAIN OVER C/EC
WI...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S ARE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH.

THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE LKSHR...WHERE 50S WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND THE GFS AND
ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED
TO THE EAST AT THE START OF MONDAY NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL RH IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME...INDICATIVE OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS PUSHING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  AFTER MORNING CLOUDS LIFT...SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPS.  HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S AND
50S.  MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.  LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AM SKEPTICAL THAT RAIN CAN PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS DEPICTS BUT THE
ECMWF IS NOW ALSO QUICKER...SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE GOING.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  DECENT
RAINS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT.  PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DESPITE QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.  ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND THEN JUST REMAINING COOL ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHWRS TO CONT FROM SW TO E-CNTRL WI THIS
AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME HELP
FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FCST
TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TNGT BEFORE FINALLY GETTING A PUSH SWD BY A
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER
LATE TNGT OR EARLY MON. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS TO IMPACT
THE MAJORITY OF THE NE WI TAF SITES WITH RHI THE EXCEPTION AS THE
PCPN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE RHI MAY REMAIN DRY...THE
COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW... MODEST DEW PTS AND LIGHT WINDS
COULD LEAD TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG. THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON
MON WL BRING ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR RAIN SHWRS ON MON WITH ENUF
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TSTMS AS WELL. WHILE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL FCST FOR MON...ANY HEAVIER SHWR
OR TSTM WOULD SEND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KMKX 201709 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM LA CROSSE TO GREEN BAY TODAY. 925-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS...WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE 500MB FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ARE ALLOWING
FOR MODERATE UPWARD MOTION/OMEGA AND RESULTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO EXPAND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN UP TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS AND THE INCOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON THE HEATING WEST AND NORTH OF
MADISON TO FOND DU LAC. THE LAKE BREEZE IS HUGGING THE SHORELINE IN
MILWAUKEE COUNTY SO THE AIRPORT HAS WARMED TO 70...BUT IT HAS PUSHED
INLAND WEST OF RACINE AND THE CITY OF KENOSHA AND ALSO WEST OF
SHEBOYGAN...WITH TEMPS STUCK IN THE 50S. I THINK THE LAKE BREEZE
WILL GET TO MITCHELL AIRPORT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH
FURTHER INLAND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK OR
MAYBE JUST A LITTLE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT FOR KMSN
AND THE SE WI TAF SITES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
WI WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TNT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH ITS SFC-
850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO THE SOUTH WITH SCT HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NW CWA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT SO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
FAR NW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH TNT. MOST
OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TNT.

WARM TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD BUT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER DOES
COMPLICATE THE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STEADY
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA...BUT BELIEVE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE DAY OVER THE SE. THUS
WENT WITH SOME MID 70S OVER SE WI AND NEAR THE IL BORDER...AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BEFORE
THE COOLING OCCURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL AID
VERTICAL MOTION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
ALL DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A CONVECTIVE LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME CAPES AOA 1100 J/KG. ANY HEATING AND WE CAN
HIT LOW/MID 70S PER MOS GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
TEMPS OVER 70 AND DEW POINTS OVER 55. HOWEVER CIPS SHOWS SVR
THREAT LOW WITH ONLY MRGNL HAIL POTENTIAL AND THIS FITS WITH
CURRENT SWODY2 OUTLOOK OF GENERAL THUNDER. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS
AND CERTAINLY RETAIN THUNDER POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CHILLY AIRMASS SETTLES IN WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL DOMINATING.
850 TEMPS DROP OFF TO 0 TO -2C WITH A SMIDGE COOLER READINGS ON
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL
WHICH COULD HANG AROUND A BIT ESP IN ERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER
850 JET CORE WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z WITH DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE. MODELS IN SYNC WITH KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF CWA
THROUGH 18Z SO FLEXED OUT THE MORNING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND THEN
EXPANDED POPS WEST TO EAST WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING WITH TIME.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A DECENT SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING TOWARDS WI FROM A BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS HAS ATTENDANT DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE SURGE TO THE NORTH. ATTM THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE SKEWING THE MOST FAVORED SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH
OF WI...ESP ON THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS HAS SOME 60 PCT VALUES
SNEAKING INTO WI. THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE BUT HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA IS STILL A QUESTION
MARK. AT THIS TIME SURFACE DEWS ARE ONLY PROGGD INTO THE LOW/MID
50S. SO EMPHASIS BEING PLACED TO OUR SOUTH. COORD WITH SPC ON
THIS. BUT STILL QUITE A WAYS OFF AND THIS DAY IS ONE TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW PRESSURE
SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. SO EXPECTING A SHOWERY REGIME TO LINGER
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
LIKELY TO BE ENHANCING LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE/850 TROUGH
AXES COMING INTO PLAY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS NVA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO LINGER WITH 850
TEMPS SLOW TO REBOUND FROM PROGGD MORNING VALUES OF -2 TO -5C.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE
WETTER LOOK OF THE ECMWF WITH A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME RETURN WAA
SHRA INTO THE SRN CWA.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT FOR KMSN
AND THE SE WI TAF SITES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
WI WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TNT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE
BRIEF.

MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO BE
NEAR 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 201155
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
655 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WSTRN LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH FAR NW WI AND CENTRAL MN. A WARM FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS EVIDENCED BY EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORCING WITH RRQ OF A 90
KT JET...AND WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT
LLJ.

DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST...AND 850 MB FLOW
VEERS WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THINK THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
ATTEMPT TO REORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
REDEVELOPS...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES. A MILD DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE LKSHR.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...IN THE VCNTY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE MILD AGAIN OVER C/EC
WI...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S ARE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH.

THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE LKSHR...WHERE 50S WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND THE GFS AND
ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED
TO THE EAST AT THE START OF MONDAY NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL RH IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME...INDICATIVE OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS PUSHING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  AFTER MORNING CLOUDS LIFT...SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPS.  HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S AND
50S.  MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.  LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AM SKEPTICAL THAT RAIN CAN PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS DEPICTS BUT THE
ECMWF IS NOW ALSO QUICKER...SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE GOING.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  DECENT
RAINS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT.  PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DESPITE QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.  ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND THEN JUST REMAINING COOL ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER THIS MORNING...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING IS TOO LOW TO ADD THEM TO THE TAFS RIGHT
NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT CIGS AND
VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED SOME BORDERLINE LLWS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF
THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KARX 201117
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
MUCH OF THE -SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH IN THE TAFS. AVOIDED FILLING TAFS
WITH LONG PERIODS OF TEMPO AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AND EITHER USED
VCSH OR JUST PREVAILED -SHRA...KNOWING THAT -SHRA BY NATURE ARE SCT
AND PASSING FEATURES AT ANY ONE POINT. WITH TSRA COVERAGE GENERALLY
ISOLATED...LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF TSRA TRENDS TOWARD
MORE COVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM...UPDATES OR LATER TAF CYCLES CAN
ADD CB/VCTS OR TSRA AS NEEDED.

MOST CIGS/VSBYS TODAY THRU THIS EVENING WILL BE VFR...WITH ISOLATED/
WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHRA OR ANY TSRA.
FRONT STALLS IN THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING
TO POOL NEAR IT. GUIDANCE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ARE
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR/-SHRA LATER
TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS TOWARD MVFR IN BR/-SHRA
LATER TONIGHT IN EITHER TEMPO OR PREVAILING PERIOD AT KLSE/KRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 200846
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
A FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PICKING UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES ON UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 20.07Z RAP ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO 0-3KM MUCAPE REGIONALLY...WHICH IS WHY THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WITH THESE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING IN WHEN
THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE 20.07Z
RAP/20.00Z NAM & GFS APPEAR TO PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS TOO HIGH
TOO FAST WHICH DEVELOPS TOO MUCH INSTABILITY. WITH BROAD/WEAK
FORCING IN PLACE FOR TODAY...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS IS...WITH AN UPTICK GOING INTO TONIGHT AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND HELPS TO PUSH
SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY/DEEP
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE
FOCUS GOES TO A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A FEW
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IN WITH IT. DESPITE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE 20.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM...THEY ALL SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH HERE...BUT 0-3KM
MUCAPE DOES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
COMES UP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN WITH ALL OF THE
20.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH FROM THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH. THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE 20.00Z
GFS SHOWING THE RIDGE BEING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING. THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THERE POSSIBLY BEING SOME P-TYPE ISSUES THERE SHOULD
IT OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INTO TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY BEING MORE LOCALIZED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. AFTER A BREAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AND MAY
STAY THIS WAY IF THIS RAINFALL ALL OCCURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 200845
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WSTRN LK SUPERIOR
THROUGH FAR NW WI AND CENTRAL MN. A WARM FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AS EVIDENCED BY EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. SHOWERS WERE ONGOING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORCING WITH RRQ OF A 90
KT JET...AND WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KT
LLJ.

DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST...AND 850 MB FLOW
VEERS WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THINK THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
ATTEMPT TO REORGANIZE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE SOUTHERN
FOX VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
REDEVELOPS...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES. A MILD DAY IS
ON TAP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S...EXCEPT
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE LKSHR.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...IN THE VCNTY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE MILD AGAIN OVER C/EC
WI...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S ARE ANTICIPATED FARTHER NORTH.

THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PULL ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE LKSHR...WHERE 50S WILL
LIKELY OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND THE GFS AND
ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED
TO THE EAST AT THE START OF MONDAY NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL RH IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME...INDICATIVE OF
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS PUSHING SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  AFTER MORNING CLOUDS LIFT...SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE ALBEIT WITH COOLER TEMPS.  HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S AND
50S.  MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.  LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AM SKEPTICAL THAT RAIN CAN PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS DEPICTS BUT THE
ECMWF IS NOW ALSO QUICKER...SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE GOING.  BETTER
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  DECENT
RAINS SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT.  PWATS WILL BE INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DESPITE QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.  ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND THEN JUST REMAINING COOL ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACRS THE AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE HELD
UP WELL THUS FAR...BUT AS LOW-LEVELS GET CLOSER TO SATURATION WL
PROBABLY HAVE SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG DEVELOP. WL CONT TO ATTEMPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PCPN IN THE TAFS...THOUGH
IT/S TOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KMKX 200837
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI ALONG WITH ITS SFC-
850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO THE SOUTH WITH SCT HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER THE NW CWA. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TNT SO HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE
FAR NW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH TNT. MOST
OF THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TNT.

WARM TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD BUT THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER DOES
COMPLICATE THE TEMPS SOMEWHAT. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STEADY
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA...BUT BELIEVE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE DAY OVER THE SE. THUS
WENT WITH SOME MID 70S OVER SE WI AND NEAR THE IL BORDER...AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S BEFORE
THE COOLING OCCURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL AID
VERTICAL MOTION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
ALL DEVELOP PRECIP WITH A CONVECTIVE LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME CAPES AOA 1100 J/KG. ANY HEATING AND WE CAN
HIT LOW/MID 70S PER MOS GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
TEMPS OVER 70 AND DEW POINTS OVER 55. HOWEVER CIPS SHOWS SVR
THREAT LOW WITH ONLY MRGNL HAIL POTENTIAL AND THIS FITS WITH
CURRENT SWODY2 OUTLOOK OF GENERAL THUNDER. WILL CARRY HIGH POPS
AND CERTAINLY RETAIN THUNDER POTENTIAL.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CHILLY AIRMASS SETTLES IN WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL DOMINATING.
850 TEMPS DROP OFF TO 0 TO -2C WITH A SMIDGE COOLER READINGS ON
THE GFS. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD POOL
WHICH COULD HANG AROUND A BIT ESP IN ERN CWA.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER
850 JET CORE WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z WITH DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE. MODELS IN SYNC WITH KEEPING PRECIP WEST OF CWA
THROUGH 18Z SO FLEXED OUT THE MORNING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND THEN
EXPANDED POPS WEST TO EAST WITH TIME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EAST WITH BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INCREASING WITH TIME.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A DECENT SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING TOWARDS WI FROM A BROAD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS HAS ATTENDANT DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE SURGE TO THE NORTH. ATTM THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE SKEWING THE MOST FAVORED SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH
OF WI...ESP ON THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE GFS HAS SOME 60 PCT VALUES
SNEAKING INTO WI. THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE BUT HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA IS STILL A QUESTION
MARK. AT THIS TIME SURFACE DEWS ARE ONLY PROGGD INTO THE LOW/MID
50S. SO EMPHASIS BEING PLACED TO OUR SOUTH. COORD WITH SPC ON
THIS. BUT STILL QUITE A WAYS OFF AND THIS DAY IS ONE TO KEEP A
VERY CLOSE EYE ON.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST BUT LOW PRESSURE
SLOW TO DEPART THE REGION. SO EXPECTING A SHOWERY REGIME TO LINGER
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
LIKELY TO BE ENHANCING LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE/850 TROUGH
AXES COMING INTO PLAY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW A TREND TOWARDS NVA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO LINGER WITH 850
TEMPS SLOW TO REBOUND FROM PROGGD MORNING VALUES OF -2 TO -5C.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE
WETTER LOOK OF THE ECMWF WITH A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME RETURN WAA
SHRA INTO THE SRN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT FOR KMSN
AND THE SE WI TAF SITES. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
WI WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN TNT FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE
BRIEF.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL ALLOW THE WAVES TO BE
NEAR 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS MORNING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 200327
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE DISPLACED BEFORE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES CAN GET STARTED. 12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS
DRY BELOW 700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE AROUND 20F
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A CLOSED 500MB CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MANITOBA AT 00Z
SUNDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z MONDAY. FLOW AT 500MB LOOKS PRETTY FLAT
ACROSS WISCONSIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET AND
40 PLUS KNOT 850MB JET INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES THERE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONVERGENCE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER RH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE THE 12Z NAM 700MB QVECTORS SHOWED AN BAND OF
STRONG CONVERGENCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WAS SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500J/KG IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN EVIDENT ON THE 12Z NAM AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOKED
PRETTY MARGINAL FOR THUNDER SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TONIGHT OR ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. KEPT AREAS OF
FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER RH AIR PASSING
ACROSS THE DEEP SNOW PACK THERE.

KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...COMBINING IT WITH A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...FOR LOWS TONIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS ON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

FOCUS OF ANY PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG OR NEAR A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STRETCH OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BESIDES WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE ONSET.  LATER AT
NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE STATE TO PROVIDE
LIFT. RRQ OF AN UPPER JET SLIDES OVER MONDAY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BEFORE THE FROPA SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THIS TIME MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL FOCUS ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH THE FRONTS AT THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY THE COLD FRONT WITH TOTAL TOTALS APPROACHING
THE LOWER 50S LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING
A DRY SLOT WORKING OVER THE STATE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WRAP
AROUND PCPN WORKS BACK OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACRS THE AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE HELD
UP WELL THUS FAR...BUT AS LOW-LEVELS GET CLOSER TO SATURATION WL
PROBABLY HAVE SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG DEVELOP. WL CONT TO ATTEMPT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR PCPN IN THE TAFS...THOUGH
IT/S TOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE IT OUT TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KMKX 200326
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBLE RESULTANT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DLL TO FLD TO SBM LINE. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
06Z MONDAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDERS IS
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1 INCH ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THAT COMPACT SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. 925-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A SERIES OF 500MB
SHORTWAVES AND RESULTANT RISING MOTION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO DEVELOP THERE. I AM
HANGING ON TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN MKX FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF... WRF-ARW AND WRF-
NMM MODEL QPF...BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ALL DAY SUNDAY AS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE STEADY WAA AHEAD OF IT WILL REINFORCE
THAT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THUS...STALLED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS INTO MADISON OR
MILWAUKEE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER- THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE
AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH DECENT OMEGA.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN TAKE ON
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE FOR A CHANGE.
INLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S NORTH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE THICKER 5000-
FOOT AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...FROM ABOUT GREEN BAY
TO LA CROSSE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF MKE/MSN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE SQUEAKING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ARRIVE...ALONG WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL FINALLY HELP TO ENHANCE OR INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A
TREND TOWARD DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF MADISON AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD...SO DESPITE
THE RAIN/CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STAY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE BORDER WITH ILLINOIS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE LAST OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS A
GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO ONSHORE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO EXTRA
CHILLY THERE. ALSO EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL IN THE
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE WILL EVOLVE FROM A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH BY FRIDAY. AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLIDES
EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL SEE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF MADISON.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS MARKS A SHIFT INTO A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER TROF/LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. IT/S TOUGH TO
ADD SPECIFIC TIMING TO PRECIP TRENDS AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
UNSETTLED UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER SIDE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBLE RESULTANT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DLL TO FLD TO SBM LINE. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z MONDAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO APPROACH 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KARX 200324
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN HAS BASICALLY STALLED...AND UP TO THIS POINT ALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS STAYED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS COULD
CHANGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HAVE VCSH AT BOTH TAF
SITES FROM 09-12Z TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...THESE
WINDS RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT LSE. AFTER
12Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO 15Z AND AFTER 19Z AS THE FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE TAF SITES. THESE TIME PERIODS COINCIDE WITH
THOSE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. DESPITE ALL THE RAIN POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP CEILINGS VFR. SHOULD SOME HEAVIER RAIN FALL WITH SAY A
THUNDERSTORM...THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 192332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY SINK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
LIKE THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...THEY ARE ALSO MOVING VERY SLOWLY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO RST AS EARLY AS 01Z...BUT
OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z. THE RAIN COULD TAKE ON A PERIODIC OCCURRENCE ON
SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW JUST KEPT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. ANOTHER
REASON FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN IS DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...WHICH WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO CONTINUE THIS DRY AIR FEED...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY VISIBILITIES COULD DIP TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER RAIN...BUT WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND TIMING PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.

REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z AT
LSE...BUT IT IS VERY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 192125
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
425 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE DISPLACED BEFORE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES CAN GET STARTED. 12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS
DRY BELOW 700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE AROUND 20F
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A CLOSED 500MB CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MANITOBA AT 00Z
SUNDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z MONDAY. FLOW AT 500MB LOOKS PRETTY FLAT
ACROSS WISCONSIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET AND
40 PLUS KNOT 850MB JET INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES THERE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONVERGENCE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER RH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE THE 12Z NAM 700MB QVECTORS SHOWED AN BAND OF
STRONG CONVERGENCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WAS SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500J/KG IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN EVIDENT ON THE 12Z NAM AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOKED
PRETTY MARGINAL FOR THUNDER SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TONIGHT OR ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. KEPT AREAS OF
FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER RH AIR PASSING
ACROSS THE DEEP SNOW PACK THERE.

KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...COMBINING IT WITH A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...FOR LOWS TONIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS ON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

FOCUS OF ANY PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG OR NEAR A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STRETCH OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BESIDES WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE ONSET.  LATER AT
NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE STATE TO PROVIDE
LIFT. RRQ OF AN UPPER JET SLIDES OVER MONDAY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BEFORE THE FROPA SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THIS TIME MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL FOCUS ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH THE FRONTS AT THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY THE COLD FRONT WITH TOTAL TOTALS APPROACHING
THE LOWER 50S LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING
A DRY SLOT WORKING OVER THE STATE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WRAP
AROUND PCPN WORKS BACK OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CHG FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WL BE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PCPN...AGAIN. WL ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
PCPN IN THE TAF...THOUGH IT/S TOUGH TO TOTALLY RULE IT OUT
TOMORROW. INCRG MOISTURE WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME FG THEN HZ LATER
TNGT INTO TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KARX 192047
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
347 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR THAN THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOWS THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPES IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE THE YESTERDAY...
THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
IF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS
WILL BE THE CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. DUE TO
THIS KEPT...THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COOL FRONT LIES FROM NEAR DULUTH MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO SIOUX
FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST/KLSE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT ...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE TOWARD
6AM SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE GREATER AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOVERING IN THE MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF RAIN DEVELOPS.
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE TO EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ZT
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KMKX 192009
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADA/ND/MN BORDERS IS
ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1 INCH ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITH THAT COMPACT SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. 925-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A SERIES OF 500MB
SHORTWAVES AND RESULTANT RISING MOTION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO DEVELOP THERE. I AM
HANGING ON TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN MKX FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF... WRF-ARW AND WRF-
NMM MODEL QPF...BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ALL DAY SUNDAY AS
A 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE STEADY WAA AHEAD OF IT WILL REINFORCE
THAT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WI DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THUS...STALLED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS INTO MADISON OR
MILWAUKEE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL
HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER- THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE
AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH DECENT OMEGA.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...THEN TAKE ON
MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE FOR A CHANGE.
INLAND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH AND UPPER
60S NORTH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE THICKER 5000-
FOOT AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HOLD STATIONARY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...FROM ABOUT GREEN BAY
TO LA CROSSE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
NORTH OF MKE/MSN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE SQUEAKING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ARRIVE...ALONG WITH IT/S ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THIS WILL FINALLY HELP TO ENHANCE OR INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A
TREND TOWARD DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF MADISON AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD...SO DESPITE
THE RAIN/CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL STAY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
AROUND 70 ALONG THE BORDER WITH ILLINOIS.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE LAST OF ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS A
GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT
TO ONSHORE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO EXTRA
CHILLY THERE. ALSO EXPECT A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AS WELL IN THE
EAST.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE WILL EVOLVE FROM A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH BY FRIDAY. AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SLIDES
EAST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WE/LL SEE A STRONG WARM ADVECTION SURGE
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF MADISON.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS MARKS A SHIFT INTO A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER TROF/LOW WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. IT/S TOUGH TO
ADD SPECIFIC TIMING TO PRECIP TRENDS AT THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS
UNSETTLED UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND
MILWAUKEE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBLE RESULTANT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DLL TO FLD TO SBM LINE. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z MONDAY AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW WAVES TO APPROACH 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 191953
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

DRY AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE DISPLACED BEFORE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES CAN GET STARTED. 12Z GRB SOUNDING WAS
DRY BELOW 700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE AROUND 20F
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A CLOSED 500MB CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MANITOBA AT 00Z
SUNDAY TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z MONDAY. FLOW AT 500MB LOOKS PRETTY FLAT
ACROSS WISCONSIN. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET AND
40 PLUS KNOT 850MB JET INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING RAIN CHANCES THERE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CONVERGENCE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOWED A BAND OF HIGHER RH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE THE 12Z NAM 700MB QVECTORS SHOWED AN BAND OF
STRONG CONVERGENCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WAS SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 500J/KG IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN EVIDENT ON THE 12Z NAM AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOKED
PRETTY MARGINAL FOR THUNDER SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TONIGHT OR ON THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT IF CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE. KEPT AREAS OF
FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER RH AIR PASSING
ACROSS THE DEEP SNOW PACK THERE.

KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...COMBINING IT WITH A
BLEND OF SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...FOR LOWS TONIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWO MAIN
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS ON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

FOCUS OF ANY PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG OR NEAR A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY PROGGED TO STRETCH OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BESIDES WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT AT THE ONSET.  LATER AT
NIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE STATE TO PROVIDE
LIFT. RRQ OF AN UPPER JET SLIDES OVER MONDAY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS BEFORE THE FROPA SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT THIS TIME MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL FOCUS ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION WITH THE FRONTS AT THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY THE COLD FRONT WITH TOTAL TOTALS APPROACHING
THE LOWER 50S LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING
A DRY SLOT WORKING OVER THE STATE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WRAP
AROUND PCPN WORKS BACK OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IS
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 40 KNOTS 1000-1500 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LLWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND
MELTED SNOW OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK TO PRODUCE FOG. CONDITIONS
THERE SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT...TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY...DURING THE
MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...IN
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 191800
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
100 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

15Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z GRB SOUNDING HAD QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 15Z
OBSERVATIONS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 20F DEGREE RANGE. 11Z HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DID NOT SHOW ECHOES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY DRY AS WELL...SO
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF THE RAIN TODAY...KEEPING AT LEAST
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z. MAY NEED
TO PUSH THINGS BACK FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL FURTHER
REVIEW THE LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT
PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TODAY...WHERE A 40-50 KT LLJ AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVG WILL BE FOCUSED. THE PCPN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER FAR NE
WI...WHERE THE LLJ AND UPPER LEVEL DIVG WILL TAKE AIM. THE BEST
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND OVER C/EC WI ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL
TAPERING OFF OVER OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE
SNOW COVERED NORTHWOODS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN CENTRAL WI.
MILDER MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON EASTER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER
SHIFTING A CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE REGION.  SINCE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS BETWEEN BOTH MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE SHOULD SUFFICE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STILL A QUESTION MARK WHERE A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT BY THE START OF SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE
INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS A BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE LATEST DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT STRAYING
FROM THIS SCENARIO.  AS A RESULT...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  AN UPTICK OF
INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCOMING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS IN THAT
CORRIDOR.  THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  STILL THOUGH...THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WET WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE LAKE SHORE AT THE START OF MONDAY
EVENING.  COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRY THROUGH THE DAY.  AS A
LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TURNING COOLER AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IS
NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 40 KNOTS 1000-1500 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LLWS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN AND
MELTED SNOW OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK TO PRODUCE FOG. CONDITIONS
THERE SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT...TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY...DURING THE
MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...IN
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 191743
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1243 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE WARMER/WINDIER CONDITIONS
TODAY ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS BEEN FAIRLY
TIGHT CAUSING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS UP INTO ONTARIO AND PHASES
WITH ANOTHER LOW CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...THIS TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
HELP TO DEVELOP SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO BRING SOME WARMER IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND +8C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +15C. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BAND
WILL GRADUALLY DIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THEN STARTS TO
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH MUCAPE ONLY AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR STAYING WEAK AT 20-30KT...AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND GIVES IT A BUMP TO THE EAST MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
LIFT UP INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND COULD PROVIDE
SOME BETTER LIFT...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...TO
PRODUCE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. STILL A LOT OF DIFFERING
OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN THE 19.00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING A LOT HIGHER ON THE
QPF COMPARED TO THE NAM/GEM. THE TIMING IS A BIT OFF AS WELL WITH
THE NAM PUSHING THE RAIN OFF TO THE EAST FASTER THAN WHAT THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING...SO UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL
QPF LOOKS ABOUT GOOD FOR THIS WHOLE EVENT.

A COLDER AIR MASS DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60F TUE/WED. MAY ACTUALLY BE A
FEW DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WHEN WE ARE IN THE MAIN
CORRIDOR OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE 19.00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO THE DEEP TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM...FIRST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BELT ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THEN THE INVERTED SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE COMING IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS ON TAP TO DROP DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH 850MB DROPPING DOWN INTO THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WEAK COOL FRONT LIES FROM NEAR DULUTH MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO SIOUX
FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT KRST/KLSE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...AND AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVERNIGHT ...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE TOWARD
6AM SUNDAY...AND THEN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE GREATER AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS TAKING A
LITTLE LONGER TO RETURN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW
POINT VALUES HOVERING IN THE MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
60S THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO LOW 20S WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTH WINDS OF 12 TO 17 MPH
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF RAIN DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

RIVER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE
MAIN FLOODING OCCURRING NEAR MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
RAIN FALL IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ROUGHLY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS RAIN
WILL NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...IT WILL KEEP THE RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191739 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

LOWERED AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI...AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MKX FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TAKING LONGER TO REACH SOUTHERN WI THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS
WILL LOWER THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO REACH 20 KNOTS IN WESTERN FORECAST AREA
AS THE MIXING GETS A LITTLE DEEPER. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TODAY. IN CONTRAST...THAT SOUTHEAST
WIND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP LAKESHORE COUNTIES VERY COOL
TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS IMPEDING CONSANT SUNSHINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT TAF
SITES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBLE RESULTANT MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A DLL TO FLD TO SBM LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SFC LOW OVER THE NAN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LIFT NEED INTO SRN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A N-S
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVE EDD WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING NW WI BY 12Z SUN. THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
EDIFICATION. THE MOISTURE WITH PUS A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TNT OVER CENTRAL WI INCLUDING THE NW CWA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT VIA LOW TO MID LEVEL  IS OVER CENTRAL
WI. THUS HAVE 20-40 POPS EARLY SUN AM OVER THE FAR NAN CWA. 925
MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS CELSIUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 50S OVER ERN WI VIA THE COOL
BREEZE FROM LAKE MI.

SUNDAS - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850-700 MILLIBAR  BAND SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SRN
WI. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE IS AT LEAST
ONE SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA MOST
VULNERABLE TO THE SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THESE FEATURES. 925 TEMPS
RISE TO 13-16C...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SRN CWA WHERE CLOUD
COVER MAY HAVE A SAY ON MAXING OUT FULL POTENTIAL...BUT SOME
INLAND LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-94 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY AND IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REST OF SRN WI. AXIS
OF HIGHER 850 DEWS LEAN OVER INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF SFC/850 FRONTS.
SEVERAL OTHER VORTICITY MAXIMA RIDE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEARED VORT AXIS SLIDES EAST BY AFTERNOON. APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TAKES HOLD. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO 4-7C IN
THE CAA REGIME...SO A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY IN THE WORKS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOL AIRMASS LINGERS WITH NE WINDFLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. 925
TEMPS ACTUALLY TRY TO NUDGE BELOW 0C ON TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE
ECMWF. HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE WAA PCPN INTO WI. GIVEN THE DRY FEED...PREFER
THE MORE RESTRAINED LOOK OF THE 00Z ECMWF..SO ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN
THE WEST MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER LOOK OF THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TO SE
MN BY 00Z WHILE THE GFS AND GEM HAVE WEAKER AND MORE WESTWARD
PLACED SURFACE FEATURES. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGHEST CWASP TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND GEM BRING IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH. WHILE
STILL DIFFERENT IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT SYNOPTICALLY...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 850 JET AFFECTING THE AREA. IN FACT
THE MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50 DEW POINTS
MAKING A SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER LOWERING CONFIDENCE IS THE GEM WHICH SHOWS ALL PRECIP
STAYING ACROSS IA/MN AND NW WI THROUGH 00Z. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST WITH GENERAL COLD ADVECTION
REGIME. ALOFT...THE ECMWF HAS THE POTENT 500 MILLIBAR CIRCULATION
IN ERN WI AT 12Z WHILE THE GFS HAS IT BACK IN MN. SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN 925 THERMAL FIELDS BUT BOTH MODELS SHOWING SHRA
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXES ORIENTED EAST/WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF WI DURG
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SELY TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
BUT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TNT WHICH WILL
ALLOW WAVES TO APPROACH 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY LATE TNT AND SUN AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 191526
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1026 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

15Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z GRB SOUNDING HAD QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 15Z
OBSERVATIONS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 20F DEGREE RANGE. 11Z HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DID NOT SHOW ECHOES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN UNTIL AROUND 00Z. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY DRY AS WELL...SO
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF THE RAIN TODAY...KEEPING AT LEAST
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z. MAY NEED
TO PUSH THINGS BACK FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL FURTHER
REVIEW THE LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THAT
PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TODAY...WHERE A 40-50 KT LLJ AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVG WILL BE FOCUSED. THE PCPN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER FAR NE
WI...WHERE THE LLJ AND UPPER LEVEL DIVG WILL TAKE AIM. THE BEST
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND OVER C/EC WI ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL
TAPERING OFF OVER OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INSTABILITY IS VERY
MARGINAL. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NC/FAR NE WI LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE
SNOW COVERED NORTHWOODS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN CENTRAL WI.
MILDER MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ON EASTER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER
SHIFTING A CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE REGION.  SINCE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS BETWEEN BOTH MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE SHOULD SUFFICE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...STILL A QUESTION MARK WHERE A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT BY THE START OF SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE
INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTS A BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE LATEST DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT STRAYING
FROM THIS SCENARIO.  AS A RESULT...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  AN UPTICK OF
INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCOMING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS IN THAT
CORRIDOR.  THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE
EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  STILL THOUGH...THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WET WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE EXITED THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE LAKE SHORE AT THE START OF MONDAY
EVENING.  COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A STRATUS DECK DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS ON TUESDAY...SHOULD
SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOW
LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING DRY THROUGH THE DAY.  AS A
LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TURNING COOLER AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN REACHING
NC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY DROPPING
TO MVFR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG OVER THE
SNOW COVERED REGIONS OF NORTHERN WI.

LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE WESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...
THEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MG
SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







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