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000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 280453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT...A
STORM WILL TRAVEL THROUGH ILLINOIS AND COULD BRING MVFR CIGS TO
THE TAF SITES FROM ABOUT MID EVENING ON. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS FORECAST CEILING YET HOWEVER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-
     019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 280411
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1011 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280411
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1011 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 280333
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED
COMPLETELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. IR IMAGE SHOWS
AREA WITH FRESH SNOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAS
BECOME CALM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10. WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280333
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED
COMPLETELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. IR IMAGE SHOWS
AREA WITH FRESH SNOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAS
BECOME CALM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10. WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KARX 280008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 280008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 272323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
PICKUP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
PICKUP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 272323
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
PICKUP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 14 KNOTS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KARX 272152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272152
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS PRODUCED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE -5 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -30 FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS SHIFTED THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW TRACKS THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DUE
TO THIS...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS NOW LOCATED TO OUR WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH STILL PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER THIS MODEL IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MODEL ENSEMBLE. 10 OF THE
12 GFS MEMBERS RESEMBLE THE OPERATIONAL GEM/ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS.
DUE TO THIS LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
FROM THE SOUNDINGS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...SO JUST KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 TO HANDLE THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
MAY FALL.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE
WINTRY MIX WAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE
AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ANYWHERE
FROM A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE THERMAL PROFILE BETWEEN 500
AND 600 MB IS LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE IN THE 10-15 TO 1 RANGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER COLD SHOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND FROM 5 TO 15
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 272027
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272027
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 272027
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272027
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH SHOWED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHED THE STEEP LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN AND DECOUPLE AGAIN TONIGHT TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL USE A HEALTHY BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LIKELY FALLING WELL INTO THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY/S HIGHS BUT WILL BE DEALING WITH A COLD START AGAIN AND
INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLING MORE COLD AIR AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC
UPR RDG AND A POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY
TO THE SW CONUS TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RDG
IS FCST TO WEAKEN LATE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WL ALLOW THE TROF TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WL
BRING A FLATTER FLOW TO THE CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. PCPN CHCS TO BE FOCUSED SUNDAY/
SUNDAY NGT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE SW CONUS UPR
TROF AND THEN MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WITH A BIGGER SYSTEM THAT WL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPS WL WARM-UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOL DOWN MID-WEEK AND THEN START BACK UP TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT E-NE OUT OF THE SW
CONUS UPR TROF IS FCST TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NGT. BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GULF MOISTURE WL LIFT NWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND POOL ALONG A QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES E-NE TO THE OHIO RIVER. ALL THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY MEASURABLE PCPN TO NE WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO DOWNPLAY
POPS SAT NGT AND FOCUS MORE ON TEMPS AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN
OVRNGT. WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AROUND MIDNGT AND THEN HAVE READINGS EITHER HOLD STEADY
OR RISE A FEW DEGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WL CONT TO TRACK E-NE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT
LAKES/APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E-SE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...PRECEDED
BY A CDFNT. THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN ALL THESE
WEATHER FEATURES TO AT LEAST BRING A SMALL CHC OF LIGHT SNOW TO NE
WI DURING THE DAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE
LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S SOUTH.

THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
EVENING AND WL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW. WEAK CAA TO
PUSH INTO WI WITH 8H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -14C...SO WL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACROSS N-CNTRL WI. AT THIS
POINT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AS THERE ARE MORE NEGATIVES THAN
POSITIVES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT (ICE-COVERED LAKE...NOT OVERLY
COLD...SFC HI BUILDING INTO WI). MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5
ABOVE N-CNTRL...10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG LAKE MI. THE SFC HI MOVES
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH WINDS BACKING
FROM W-NW TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WL ALREADY BEGIN TO PULLL GULF MOISTURE NWD
AND WE COULD SEE HI CLOUDS ARRIVING MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID 20S.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN MON NGT AS A LARGE PART OF THE
SW CONUS UPR TROF BREAKS AWAY AND MOVES NE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROF WL HELP DEVELOP LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CNTRL HI PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A 40-50 KT SW LOW-LEVEL JET WL
CRANK UP AND QUICKLY PULL ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE NWD TOWARD WI.
MODELS VARY ON HOW FAST THIS MOISTURE WL OVERSPREAD WI WITH THE
GEM THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE AIR MASS OVER WI
INITIALLY WL BE DRY SO IT WL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE.
THEREFORE...FAVOR A SLOWER APPROACH TO THE PCPN (SOMETHING BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF) AND FOCUS POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. TUE APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PCPN OVER NE WI AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E-NE
TOWARD SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE FAR ENUF TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN OUT OF THE
FCST AREA WITH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATING ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY (GOOD WAA...STRONG
Q-G/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND A 160 KT JET OVERHEAD FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT) TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY...THUS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
CHANGES TO OCCUR. SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW...
SO PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT TUE WL WANT TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS/POSSIBLE HEADLINES TO COME. THE MEAN W-SW
FLOW ALOFT WL BRING MILDER AIR INTO WI ON TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPR 20S NORTH...AROUND 30 DEGS SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PULL AWAY FROM WI TUE NGT...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER AT NGT. AN ISSUE
THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED WL BE THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THAT WL NOT ONLY BRING BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW TO
NE WI...BUT ALSO USHER IN THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER BLAST OF VERY
COLD AIR FROM CANADA. THESE CONDITIONS WL CARRY OVER INTO WED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL (TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGS) WITH WIND CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN FLIRTING WITH ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER N-CNTRL WI...HOWEVER TRAJS ARE NOT PERFECT AND THERE IS
LITTLE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS LATEST ARCTIC INTRUSION SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AS THE ERN
PACIFIC UPR RDG BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS A PACIFIC AIR MASS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CONUS. WED NGT/THU TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD (20
DEGS BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. WE WL HAVE TO
WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACH WI ON FRI WHICH MIGHT TRY AND
GENERATE A LITTLE PCPN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 271743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 271743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 271743
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 271725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 271725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 28.18Z UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY
IMPACT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SLOWLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 271126
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
526 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 271126
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
526 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KARX 271123
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 271123
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 270929
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 270929
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON TEMPERATURES AND HOW LOW THEY
WILL GET TONIGHT.

BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US WITH THE
CORE OF IT CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINE. 27.07Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POOL OF COLDEST 850MB AIR EXTENDING EAST FROM
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEAD TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET UNDER THE LIGHT WINDS WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING DOWN AROUND 10 BELOW WITH THE BOG COUNTRY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DROPPING TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER. WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY BE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OR LOWER BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME BRIEF
WIND CHILLS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE MEANING ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ON TWO SYSTEMS WHICH
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN
SNOW BAND THIS WEEKEND. BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS APPEARS TO COME ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WHICH DOES NOT GET MUCH OF A KICK TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FACT
THAT WE ARE IN THIS BROAD FLOW WITH THERE NOT BEING AN AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH. THE 27.00Z NAM/ECMWF ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY
DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE 27.00Z GFS IS THE
HEAVIEST ON QPF WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE LEFT SOME CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE THE TREND OF HAVING LESS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL
BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH
IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER
ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO
A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER
SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KGRB 270827
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...AND REACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...
WITH NO THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...
THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A RECENT COLD BIAS...AND DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TYPICAL
COLD SPOTS FOR MIN TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS
BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO A CLOSED CYCLONE OVER
CALIFORNIA CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

THERE MAY BE A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION...PROBABLY LESS THAN AN
INCH...IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL TREK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND BRING SNOW CHANCES
TO WISCONSIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NOT PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT
WHAT HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW BUT IF
WARMER AIR REACHES THE AREA A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS PASSED
EAST OF THE AREA A RETURN TO COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 270454
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB






000
FXUS63 KGRB 270454
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1054 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KARX 270449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 270449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270328
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...RAISED LOW TEMPS FOR TNT BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE
CURRENT MILDER TREND IN TEMPS...AND A LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STAYS OVER THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. ALSO REISSUED THE SPS FOR THE VERY COLD TEMPS TNT INTO FRI
NT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 270328
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...RAISED LOW TEMPS FOR TNT BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE
CURRENT MILDER TREND IN TEMPS...AND A LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STAYS OVER THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. ALSO REISSUED THE SPS FOR THE VERY COLD TEMPS TNT INTO FRI
NT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 262319
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 262319
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 262319
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
519 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 262317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KARX 262148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2500-3500 FEET
RANGE. INTRODUCED SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 262148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2500-3500 FEET
RANGE. INTRODUCED SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 262148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2500-3500 FEET
RANGE. INTRODUCED SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 262148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK 4K FOOT CLOUDS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND BY MID TO LATE EVENING SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...A 1039 MB
HIGH...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT OUR SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
SUPPORT 5 KNOTS OR LESS OF WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT
WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE -10 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL
FOUND IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BLACK RIVER FALLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE THEIR THIRD DAY IN THE PAST WEEK WHERE THEIR TEMPERATURE HAS
FALLEN TO -29F OR COLDER. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...ANY WIND
AT ALL WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER
IF THE WIND IS A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW TEMPERATURES
WOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST AND WE WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WIND CHILLS. DUE TO THIS...THINKING THAT IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE WINDS CHILLS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARILY IN THE -20 TO
-35 DEGREE RANGE. DUE TO THIS...THE CONSENSUS WAS TO JUST ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 26.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE FURTHEST NORTH AND
PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE 26.12Z
NAM WAS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT ITS 26.18Z RUN
SHIFTED IT SOUTH TOWARD THE GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH EITHER
MISSES OUR AREA COMPLETELY OR JUST BRUSHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. DUE TO THESE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW THAT
ANOTHER A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW AND IT IS ALSO THE FASTEST WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...THERE WOULD BE A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND IT IS SLOWER AT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...IT RESULTS IN THE SAME SCENARIO AND THE GFS. MEANWHILE
THE GEM IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE SOLUTIONS AND HAS A SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE ECMWF. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE ENTIRE AREA WOULD
SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION
AMOUNTS.

IN THE WAKES OF THIS SYSTEM...ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE GFS ONLY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2500-3500 FEET
RANGE. INTRODUCED SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 262126
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT



000
FXUS63 KMKX 262126
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 262025
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 262025
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD DRY REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH BE FORECAST LOWS
TONIGHT.

SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS JUST
TO THE WEST AND BRUSHING OVER VILAS COUNTY. REGION WAS IN AN AREA
OF STEEPER TEMP LAPSE RATES WITH SOME FEED OF MOISTURE OFF
AVAILABLE OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST AIR WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH AFFECTS THE REGION.

WELL SUB ZERO TEMPS LAST NIGHT PRODUCE HIT AND MISS WIND CHILL
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO WINDS DECOUPLING. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND VARIABLE WIND
SPEEDS AGAIN PRODUCING HIT AND MISS WC CRITERIA READINGS. WILL
DEAL WITH IT USING THE SPS SINCE WIND CHILL POTENTIAL APPEAR A
BIT LESS THAN LAST NIGHT.

COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY WITH H850 WINDS
INCREASING A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND PCPN NOT AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MEAN FLOW TO GENERALLY CONSIST OF A STRONG ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG...A
POSITIVE-TILTED UPR TROF FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SWWD TO THE SW CONUS
AND A SUB-TROPICAL UPR HI OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. THIS IS A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT FROM WHAT THE CONUS HAS BEEN UNDER FOR MOST OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. FOR NE WI...THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO A MILDER/MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW SAT
NGT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING ANYWHERE FROM HEAVY SNOW TO A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA.

WRN EDGE OF THE SFC HI TO BE SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRI NGT...THEREBY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS TO NE WI. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN 8H TEMPS IS EXPECTED
THRU THE NGT AS WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS BITTER COLD AS THU NGT...READINGS WL STILL BE
CLOSE TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PLACE MIN TEMPS FROM
AROUND ZERO ALONG LAKE MI...8 TO 14 BELOW ZERO ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HI ON SAT AS INCREASING
SW WINDS BRING A WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR MASS TOWARD WI. THE ONSET
OF WAA...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WL HAVE EJECTED E-NE FROM
THE BASE OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF INTO THE MIDWEST...WL BRING SOME
HI CLOUDS INTO WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS COULD TEMPER
TEMPS A BIT AND WITH THE COLD START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE 15 TO 20 DEG RANGE.

THIS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE (MORE LIKE SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY) CONTS TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NGT...ALONG WITH A PREVAILING WAA INTO WI THRU THE NGT.
OVERALL...LIFT/FORCING/MOISTURE ARE ALL LIMITED ACROSS NE WI SO
WHILE THERE WL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST (MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE STATE)...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT
(UNDER AN INCH). MORE CLOUDS/CHC OF SNOW TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NGT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO
10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

JUST AS THIS SRN STREAM WEAK SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON SUNDAY...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF...COMBINED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT...MAY SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS NE WI. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE FEATURES. MAX TEMPS TO MAKE A JUMP CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LWR TO MID 20S NORTH...MID TO UPR 20S
SOUTH.

WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF SUNDAY NGT
AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS TO DEVELOP.
PROBLEM FOR MUCH SNOW IS THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOSTLY ICE-`
COVERED...8H TEMPS ARE NOT THAT COLD (-14C) AND YOU HAVE A SFC HI
BUILDING INTO WI. HAVE KEPT A TOKEN SLGT CHC POP FOR VILAS CNTY...
BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A NON-EVENT. THIS SFC HI QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
WI MON MORNING AND ALREADY BE TO OUR EAST MON AFTERNOON. A RETURN
FLOW TO ALREADY BE UNDERWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MEAN
FLOW TO AHVE BECOME W-SW BY THIS TIME...A SURGE OF WAA TO OUR SW
MAY ALREADY BRING MID/HI CLOUDS BACK TO THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS ON MON TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID TO UPR 20S.

LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN STARTING MON NGT WITH THE HANDLING OF
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS UPR TROF AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLAINS.
EXPECT AT BEST A CHC OF PCPN TO OVERSPREAD WI MON NGT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKS WITH STRENGTHENING WAA AND INCREASING MID-
LEVEL FORCING. THE REAL ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW ON TUE. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW AND TRACKS IT NE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z WED. THE GEM HAS MORE OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH
MOST OF THE PCPN FOCUSED ON A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF HEDGES TOWARD THE GFS BUT IS A
GOOD 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE UKMET TAKES THE MODEST SFC LOW NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ANYWHERE FROM NRN WI TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO. FOR
NOW...HAVE PLAYED THE FCST SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH HI CHC POPS
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
HANDLED. THERE EVEN COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI IF A NRN TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. STAY TUNED!

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOW COULD EASILY CONT THRU TUE
NGT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST MID-WEEK WITH NE WI BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
NRN STREAM. THIS WOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY
SPOTTY PCPN CHCS AS FORCING/MOISTURE TO BE MARGINAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261739
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY REACH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE TODAY.  DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KARX 261729
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF
ARCTIC HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WAS
STILL IN SOUTHERN SASKAT BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EAST AS MUCH OF ONTARIO. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA WAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BEHIND
IT MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WI/IA. TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3 OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND
CHILLS NORTHWEST OF A KGRB-KLSE-KDSM LINE MOSTLY -10 TO -25 EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WINDS EAST/SOUTH OF THIS HIGH MOSTLY ONLY 5-10MPH.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 26.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
SWING ACROSS THE AREA THEN WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...QUIET/DRY...AND COLD...WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER ND BY THIS EVENING...THEN CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA BY
FRI MORNING. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -22C RANGE AT 12Z THIS
MORNING ARE PROGGED TO STILL BE IN THE -18C TO -20C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WESTERN IA AT 12Z FRI...SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES EVEN FURTHER. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALREADY MOSTLY 5-10 MPH. WITH EVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/CALM AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH AND SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER FROM WED...FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OR ALL
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM IN LOW
LAYING/RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WILL DEFER ANY ADDITIONAL NEEDED
HEADLINES TO THE DAY CREW TO AVOID ANY DOUBLE HEADLINE CONFUSION.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY THEN CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SNOW CHANCES SAT
NIGHT...TEMPERATURE TREND THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A 500MB PATTERN SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS CHANNELED SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. PATTERN TRANSITION CONTINUES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CA. TREND ALSO CONTINUES FOR A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL SUITE TRENDS TOWARD MORE PHASING WITH
THIS TROUGH AND SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS THRU
SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD.

THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST CORE OF LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
SFC-700MB FLOW SLOWLY SWINGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPS STILL
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
START A MORE ROBUST RECOVERY SAT AS SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES...FOR BOTH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING. WARMING SAT LOOKS TEMPERED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL TREND OF MORE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN SOUTHERN STREAMS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
NEARBY PARTS OF IA/WI/MN. THE STRONGER PHASING ALLOWS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MORE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MORE SFC/LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE WAVE...MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED AS WELL. RETURNING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LIMITING FACTOR....BUT TIGHTENING MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TREND WOULD NOW SPREAD 1 TO 2 PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FOR
NOW...RAISED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT...WHICH BLENDS QUITE
WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT INTO WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM SAT NIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS TROUGH. GOOD
SIGNAL/CONSENSUS CONTINUES SUN NIGHT/MON FOR RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND TOWARD/ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. GENERAL BETWEEN MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE SUN THRU WED PERIOD...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

FASTER TREND OF MODELS PUSHES THE FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE FROM SAT
NIGHT OUT MORE QUICKLY ON SUN...WITH ONLY SMALL LINGERING -SN
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER
SUN INTO MON UNDER THE RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS ONE OF
MODIFIED PACIFIC/CAN ORIGIN AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION...AND UNDER THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUN-MON LOOK GOOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MON NIGHT/TUE
SENDS A ROUND OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL OF PW VALUES OF 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. CONSENSUS SNOW
CHANCES TRENDING TOWARD 40-60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED THE NEXT FEW CYCLES FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIMINISHING SNOW
CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FORCING EXITS EAST AND
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/NEXT CAN/ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED
APPEARS WELL TRENDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2500-3500 FEET
RANGE. INTRODUCED SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KGRB 261154
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN NNW. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARGUES FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WILL JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
WATCH TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 261154
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN NNW. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARGUES FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WILL JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
WATCH TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261154
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN NNW. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARGUES FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WILL JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
WATCH TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 261154
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
554 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
MOVE BACK INTO VILAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN NNW. MODELS
SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 950-850 MB TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
ARGUES FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. WILL JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
WATCH TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT...WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KMKX 261127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 261123
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF
ARCTIC HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WAS
STILL IN SOUTHERN SASKAT BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EAST AS MUCH OF ONTARIO. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA WAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BEHIND
IT MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WI/IA. TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3 OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND
CHILLS NORTHWEST OF A KGRB-KLSE-KDSM LINE MOSTLY -10 TO -25 EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WINDS EAST/SOUTH OF THIS HIGH MOSTLY ONLY 5-10MPH.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 26.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
SWING ACROSS THE AREA THEN WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...QUIET/DRY...AND COLD...WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER ND BY THIS EVENING...THEN CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA BY
FRI MORNING. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -22C RANGE AT 12Z THIS
MORNING ARE PROGGED TO STILL BE IN THE -18C TO -20C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WESTERN IA AT 12Z FRI...SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES EVEN FURTHER. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALREADY MOSTLY 5-10 MPH. WITH EVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/CALM AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH AND SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER FROM WED...FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OR ALL
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM IN LOW
LAYING/RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WILL DEFER ANY ADDITIONAL NEEDED
HEADLINES TO THE DAY CREW TO AVOID ANY DOUBLE HEADLINE CONFUSION.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY THEN CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SNOW CHANCES SAT
NIGHT...TEMPERATURE TREND THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A 500MB PATTERN SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS CHANNELED SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. PATTERN TRANSITION CONTINUES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CA. TREND ALSO CONTINUES FOR A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL SUITE TRENDS TOWARD MORE PHASING WITH
THIS TROUGH AND SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS THRU
SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD.

THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST CORE OF LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
SFC-700MB FLOW SLOWLY SWINGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPS STILL
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
START A MORE ROBUST RECOVERY SAT AS SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES...FOR BOTH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING. WARMING SAT LOOKS TEMPERED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL TREND OF MORE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN SOUTHERN STREAMS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
NEARBY PARTS OF IA/WI/MN. THE STRONGER PHASING ALLOWS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MORE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MORE SFC/LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE WAVE...MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED AS WELL. RETURNING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LIMITING FACTOR....BUT TIGHTENING MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TREND WOULD NOW SPREAD 1 TO 2 PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FOR
NOW...RAISED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT...WHICH BLENDS QUITE
WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT INTO WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM SAT NIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS TROUGH. GOOD
SIGNAL/CONSENSUS CONTINUES SUN NIGHT/MON FOR RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND TOWARD/ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. GENERAL BETWEEN MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE SUN THRU WED PERIOD...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

FASTER TREND OF MODELS PUSHES THE FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE FROM SAT
NIGHT OUT MORE QUICKLY ON SUN...WITH ONLY SMALL LINGERING -SN
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER
SUN INTO MON UNDER THE RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS ONE OF
MODIFIED PACIFIC/CAN ORIGIN AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION...AND UNDER THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUN-MON LOOK GOOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MON NIGHT/TUE
SENDS A ROUND OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL OF PW VALUES OF 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. CONSENSUS SNOW
CHANCES TRENDING TOWARD 40-60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED THE NEXT FEW CYCLES FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIMINISHING SNOW
CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FORCING EXITS EAST AND
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/NEXT CAN/ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED
APPEARS WELL TRENDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND
ALLOW THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO DROP OFF TO A RANGE OF 5 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 260945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF
ARCTIC HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WAS
STILL IN SOUTHERN SASKAT BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EAST AS MUCH OF ONTARIO. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA WAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BEHIND
IT MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WI/IA. TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3 OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND
CHILLS NORTHWEST OF A KGRB-KLSE-KDSM LINE MOSTLY -10 TO -25 EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WINDS EAST/SOUTH OF THIS HIGH MOSTLY ONLY 5-10MPH.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 26.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
SWING ACROSS THE AREA THEN WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...QUIET/DRY...AND COLD...WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER ND BY THIS EVENING...THEN CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA BY
FRI MORNING. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -22C RANGE AT 12Z THIS
MORNING ARE PROGGED TO STILL BE IN THE -18C TO -20C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WESTERN IA AT 12Z FRI...SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES EVEN FURTHER. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALREADY MOSTLY 5-10 MPH. WITH EVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/CALM AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH AND SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER FROM WED...FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OR ALL
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM IN LOW
LAYING/RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WILL DEFER ANY ADDITIONAL NEEDED
HEADLINES TO THE DAY CREW TO AVOID ANY DOUBLE HEADLINE CONFUSION.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY THEN CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SNOW CHANCES SAT
NIGHT...TEMPERATURE TREND THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A 500MB PATTERN SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS CHANNELED SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. PATTERN TRANSITION CONTINUES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CA. TREND ALSO CONTINUES FOR A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL SUITE TRENDS TOWARD MORE PHASING WITH
THIS TROUGH AND SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS THRU
SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD.

THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST CORE OF LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
SFC-700MB FLOW SLOWLY SWINGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPS STILL
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
START A MORE ROBUST RECOVERY SAT AS SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES...FOR BOTH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING. WARMING SAT LOOKS TEMPERED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL TREND OF MORE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN SOUTHERN STREAMS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
NEARBY PARTS OF IA/WI/MN. THE STRONGER PHASING ALLOWS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MORE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MORE SFC/LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE WAVE...MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED AS WELL. RETURNING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LIMITING FACTOR....BUT TIGHTENING MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TREND WOULD NOW SPREAD 1 TO 2 PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FOR
NOW...RAISED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT...WHICH BLENDS QUITE
WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT INTO WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM SAT NIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS TROUGH. GOOD
SIGNAL/CONSENSUS CONTINUES SUN NIGHT/MON FOR RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND TOWARD/ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. GENERAL BETWEEN MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE SUN THRU WED PERIOD...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

FASTER TREND OF MODELS PUSHES THE FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE FROM SAT
NIGHT OUT MORE QUICKLY ON SUN...WITH ONLY SMALL LINGERING -SN
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER
SUN INTO MON UNDER THE RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS ONE OF
MODIFIED PACIFIC/CAN ORIGIN AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION...AND UNDER THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUN-MON LOOK GOOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MON NIGHT/TUE
SENDS A ROUND OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL OF PW VALUES OF 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. CONSENSUS SNOW
CHANCES TRENDING TOWARD 40-60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED THE NEXT FEW CYCLES FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIMINISHING SNOW
CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FORCING EXITS EAST AND
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/NEXT CAN/ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED
APPEARS WELL TRENDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 260945
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE NEXT IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS PARADE OF
ARCTIC HIGHS BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CENTER OF THE HIGH WAS
STILL IN SOUTHERN SASKAT BUT ITS INFLUENCE WAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EAST AS MUCH OF ONTARIO. SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA WAS ALREADY WELL INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BEHIND
IT MAINLY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST WI/IA. TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW ZERO
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH 1/3 OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WIND
CHILLS NORTHWEST OF A KGRB-KLSE-KDSM LINE MOSTLY -10 TO -25 EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WINDS EAST/SOUTH OF THIS HIGH MOSTLY ONLY 5-10MPH.

NO PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 26.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR OFFER A TIGHT CONSENSUS AND GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
TODAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RATHER SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGHING
SWING ACROSS THE AREA THEN WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT.
SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...EVEN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...QUIET/DRY...AND COLD...WEATHER
EXPECTED. THIS AS THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER ND BY THIS EVENING...THEN CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA BY
FRI MORNING. 925MB TEMPS IN THE -18C TO -22C RANGE AT 12Z THIS
MORNING ARE PROGGED TO STILL BE IN THE -18C TO -20C RANGE AT 12Z
FRI. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER WESTERN IA AT 12Z FRI...SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES EVEN FURTHER. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALREADY MOSTLY 5-10 MPH. WITH EVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/CALM AT MANY
LOCATIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH AND SOME
FRESH SNOW COVER FROM WED...FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE -10F TO -20F RANGE ONCE
AGAIN. APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OR ALL
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM IN LOW
LAYING/RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...WILL DEFER ANY ADDITIONAL NEEDED
HEADLINES TO THE DAY CREW TO AVOID ANY DOUBLE HEADLINE CONFUSION.
USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY THEN CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD COLDER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SNOW CHANCES SAT
NIGHT...TEMPERATURE TREND THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A 500MB PATTERN SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI/FRI NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS CHANNELED SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. PATTERN TRANSITION CONTINUES SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CA. TREND ALSO CONTINUES FOR A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL SUITE TRENDS TOWARD MORE PHASING WITH
THIS TROUGH AND SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. GIVEN A RATHER TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS THRU
SAT NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD.

THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS DOMINATED BY COLD...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT. SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST CORE OF LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE
SFC-700MB FLOW SLOWLY SWINGS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TEMPS STILL
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI/FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
START A MORE ROBUST RECOVERY SAT AS SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES...FOR BOTH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING. WARMING SAT LOOKS TEMPERED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL TREND OF MORE PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN SOUTHERN STREAMS LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUES TO SHIFT A
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SNOW BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
NEARBY PARTS OF IA/WI/MN. THE STRONGER PHASING ALLOWS FOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MORE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. MORE SFC/LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE WAVE...MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/MOISTURE AND
THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED AS WELL. RETURNING MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE LIMITING FACTOR....BUT TIGHTENING MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TREND WOULD NOW SPREAD 1 TO 2 PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FOR
NOW...RAISED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE FCST
AREA INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT...WHICH BLENDS QUITE
WELL WITH THE NEIGHBORS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES MON NIGHT INTO WED...
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

26.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS THE PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM SAT NIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THIS TROUGH. GOOD
SIGNAL/CONSENSUS CONTINUES SUN NIGHT/MON FOR RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND TOWARD/ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. GENERAL BETWEEN MODEL AGREEMENT FOR
THE REGION TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE SUN THRU WED PERIOD...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

FASTER TREND OF MODELS PUSHES THE FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE FROM SAT
NIGHT OUT MORE QUICKLY ON SUN...WITH ONLY SMALL LINGERING -SN
CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER
SUN INTO MON UNDER THE RISING HGTS/SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS ONE OF
MODIFIED PACIFIC/CAN ORIGIN AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION...AND UNDER THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUN-MON LOOK GOOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MON NIGHT/TUE
SENDS A ROUND OF INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL OF PW VALUES OF 1/2 INCH IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. CONSENSUS SNOW
CHANCES TRENDING TOWARD 40-60 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED THE NEXT FEW CYCLES FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIMINISHING SNOW
CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH/FORCING EXITS EAST AND
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/NEXT CAN/ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED
APPEARS WELL TRENDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...THE MID DECK OF CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 260934
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LAKE BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
AND WAS HEADING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS BAND WILL CLIP KMTW BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION FOR 06Z TAFS ON HOW LOW TO TAKE VISIBILITIES IN THE KMTW.
OTHERWISE...A LITTLE BURST OF WINDS AT KGRB THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 22 KNOTS AT 04Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260934
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LAKE BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
AND WAS HEADING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS BAND WILL CLIP KMTW BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION FOR 06Z TAFS ON HOW LOW TO TAKE VISIBILITIES IN THE KMTW.
OTHERWISE...A LITTLE BURST OF WINDS AT KGRB THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 22 KNOTS AT 04Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KGRB 260934
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LAKE BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
AND WAS HEADING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS BAND WILL CLIP KMTW BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION FOR 06Z TAFS ON HOW LOW TO TAKE VISIBILITIES IN THE KMTW.
OTHERWISE...A LITTLE BURST OF WINDS AT KGRB THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 22 KNOTS AT 04Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 260934
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE THE MAIN
FCST CONCERNS.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WERE NNE EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH CAUSED WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO STAY WEST OF VILAS COUNTY...AND TO JUST GRAZE
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AROUND TWO RIVERS AND SHEBOYGAN.
LAKE BANDS WERE ALREADY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHERLY. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WERE PULLING OUT OF EC WI...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO
DIVE INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BLO ZERO OVER NORTHERN WI.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CALM AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE. AIR TEMPS ALONE
ARE ALREADY COLD ENOUGH TO POSE A FROSTBITE THREAT...AND ANY
SMALL PUFFS OF WIND WILL QUICKLY DROP WIND CHILLS TO 25 TO 35
BLO ZERO.

THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
OVER EC WI...AS DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS HAVE PULLED THE WEAK
BANDS OFFSHORE. OVER FAR NC WI/VILAS COUNTY...EXPECT SCT SNOW
SHOWERS TO RETURN DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS RETURN TO A
FAVORABLE NNW TRAJECTORY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
PREVAIL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END OVER VILAS COUNTY THIS EVG AS
WINDS BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO IN NC/FAR NE WI...AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO
TO AROUND 10 BLO ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS OF 15 BLO TO 30 BLO
ZERO WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIODS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE CALM AT TIMES AT THE
COLDEST SPOTS.

WEST WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH H8 TEMPS MODERATING TO AROUND -15 C. SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS AT
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA BY THE START OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE WEEKEND SYSTEM FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO WHAT THE GEM HAD BEEN INDICATING...AFTER MOST
OF THE MODELS HAD SHOWN IT PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A LARGE AREA OF QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LAKE BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING
AND WAS HEADING SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS BAND WILL CLIP KMTW BETWEEN
05Z AND 08Z WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION FOR 06Z TAFS ON HOW LOW TO TAKE VISIBILITIES IN THE KMTW.
OTHERWISE...A LITTLE BURST OF WINDS AT KGRB THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 22 KNOTS AT 04Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG








000
FXUS63 KMKX 260930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMKE AND
BY MID-MRNG AT KENW. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE TO VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAY BE SOME FEW-SCT SC LATER TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL RH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCD WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. DUE TO LIMITED TO NO TRAFFIC
AND BORDERLINE EVENT AFT 12Z...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR SRN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 260930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMKE AND
BY MID-MRNG AT KENW. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE TO VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAY BE SOME FEW-SCT SC LATER TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL RH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCD WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. DUE TO LIMITED TO NO TRAFFIC
AND BORDERLINE EVENT AFT 12Z...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR SRN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




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