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000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 182053
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON CORRESPONDS PRETTY WELL
WITH MODEL 950MB MOISTURE FIELD. THEY GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE STALLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AS THE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START TO DRIFT EAST AGAIN. ASSUMING IT WILL BE
CLEAR IN MOST PLACES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE ARE GOING WITH
COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WEATHER PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ORE MORE LIKELY A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWINGS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAA INCREASES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF MODELS SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AT
LEAST. ITS POSSIBLE FLURRIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WAA BUT UPPER HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
DEEPEN WHILE DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PROGS SUGGEST
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. DEALING WITH PIECES OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
FOR NEXT WEEKS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED BUT
QUESTIONS PERTAIN IF THIS SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN SHORTER PERIODS
WARRANTING ADVISORY HEADLINES OR WILL THE SNOW ACCUM BE MORE SPREAD
OUT FOR 3 DAY PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE SNOW AMOUNTS THOUGH TUESDAY...TEMP PROFILE
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WI UNTIL THE LOW DRIFTS EAST ENOUGH FOR THE COLDER TO
WRAP INTO THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR MAY HAVE SOME BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH IT FOR SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS TOWARD
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...PROGS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LIFTING THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE A
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 182045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
LK SUPERIOR WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO IL/WEST TN. A WEAK TROUGH WAS
LOCATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF W AND NORTHEAST 1/4 OF MN NEAR THIS TROUGH.
SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MN TO NORTHEAST IA BUT THIS
AREA BEING SQUEEZED BY CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM BOTH THE WEST AND EAST.
TEMPS UNDER THE AREAS OF THICKER LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO WARM AGAIN TODAY.

NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 28.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
QUITE SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IA FRI NIGHT. TREND
GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE
FEATURES. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...APPROACHING/PASSING SHORTWAVES SLOWLY PUSH THE
SFC/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY INCREASES THRU
THE PERIOD. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE BROAD LOW STRATUS SHIELD
FROM ND TO MO AND EASTERN KS/OK TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN/UNDER A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 950-850MB...
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE -5C TO -8C RANGE. ICE
IS NOT LIKELY IN THESE CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER...MAY YET NEED A
PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION FRI NIGHT. WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR DRIER AIR IN
THE SFC-950MB LAYER LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MORE OVC
STRATUS SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS TO REDUCE THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH LOWS TRENDING WARMER
AND HIGHS COOLER. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS AND COOLER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES SAT
NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 18.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT QUICKLY SLIDING THE IA
SHORTWAVE EAST TO NORTHERN IN BY 00Z SUN. IMPROVING AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT...THEN PUSHED NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES THRU
THE WESTERN RIDGING AND DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. TREND...EXCEPT FOR CAN-GEM...IS SLOWING/STRONGER WITH
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING BY SUN NIGHT. GIVEN THE
REASONABLE AND IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL SAT LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN CONTINUE PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND
FURTHER ENVELOP THE AREA IN WARMING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. SFC-
700MB WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH 925MB TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THIS FLOW. SFC-800MB LAYER QUITE SATURATED
BY SAT NIGHT...WITH DEPTH OF SATURATION AND FORCING/LIFT INCREASING
SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW APPROACH. TOP OF THE
MOISTURE COLUMN AROUND -5C SAT NIGHT...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE
CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP SAT NIGHT TO BE -FZDZ WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS/SURFACES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN SOME LIFT THRU
AT LEAST THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER...CONTINUED THE PATCHY -FZDZ
MENTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. INCREASING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE/SATURATION SUN...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE OF LIFTING...
PRECIP CHANCE TRANSITIONS TO -RA. BY LATER THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
INCREASE ENOUGH OR DISTANCE BETWEEN INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE LOWER MOISTURE DECREASES ENOUGH FOR SEEDER-FEEDER TO
INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE NEAR/ABOVE 0C
SFC-925MB LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN NIGHT...LEFT
PRECIP CHANCES AS -RA/-SN FOR NOW. SUSPECT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL NOT
FALL MUCH AND STAY NEARLY STEADY NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A
-FZRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO ZERO IN ON THOSE
DETAILS. AS THE SFC-925MB LAYER SATURATES...FOG LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. INTRODUCED A PATCHY FOG MENTION
FROM LATER SAT EVENING INTO MON MORNING FOR NOW. WITH THE GENERAL
LACK OF SNOW COVER...AT THIS TIME NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANY FOG MIGHT BECOME. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT/
SUN AND WARMER OF LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS.

FOR MONDAY THRU CHRISTMAS DAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-RA/-SN CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD...
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF 18.00Z/18/.12Z CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL NOAM MON...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE LOWER THRU UPPER MS VALLEY MON NIGHT/TUE. TREND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER MON THEN FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS TUE. GOOD
CONSENSUS FOR A 500MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED WITH
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEAST THRU THE
EASTERN CONUS. MID LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THIS ENERGY
THU...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AS THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST RELOADS. EVEN WITH A REASONABLY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL/SMALLER SCALE DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PW VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1/2 INCH RANGE FOR MON INTO
TUE. THIS AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT WITH IT. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MON INTO TUE REASONABLE. PRECIP TYPE IS THE BIG QUESTION
AS SFC-925MB TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A -RA/-SN MIX ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNTIL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR THE SFC THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL
COOLING AND ANY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT MAINLY AS SNOW.
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A 48HR QPF TOTAL OF AS MUCH AS 1/2
INCH FROM 12Z MON TO 12Z WED...BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS FALLS AS RAIN
OR FALLS AS SNOW IS THE QUESTION. TIME WILL TELL AS THE LOW LEVEL
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. PRESENT TRENDS WOULD SPREAD SFC THRU
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU...FOR
A GENERALLY DRY...POSSIBLY PARTLY CLOUDY...CHRISTMAS DAY. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED MON INTO WED...WITH SMALL DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES.
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THEM
WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EITHER REMAINED OR DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE IN THIS FAIRLY INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY ACT TO SCOUR SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE CLOUD LAYER OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE VFR
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING THUS THE
TAFS WERE LEFT IN MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A VERY VERY BRIEF MVFR SHSN/FLURRY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 182045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
LK SUPERIOR WITH RIDGING SOUTH INTO IL/WEST TN. A WEAK TROUGH WAS
LOCATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI...WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF W AND NORTHEAST 1/4 OF MN NEAR THIS TROUGH.
SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM NORTHWEST MN TO NORTHEAST IA BUT THIS
AREA BEING SQUEEZED BY CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM BOTH THE WEST AND EAST.
TEMPS UNDER THE AREAS OF THICKER LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO WARM AGAIN TODAY.

NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 28.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS
QUITE SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO IA FRI NIGHT. TREND
GENERALLY FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THESE
FEATURES. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...APPROACHING/PASSING SHORTWAVES SLOWLY PUSH THE
SFC/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY INCREASES THRU
THE PERIOD. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE BROAD LOW STRATUS SHIELD
FROM ND TO MO AND EASTERN KS/OK TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THEN
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF MN/IA/WI FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THIS
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN/UNDER A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 950-850MB...
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE -5C TO -8C RANGE. ICE
IS NOT LIKELY IN THESE CLOUDS. WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE TOP OF THE MOISTURE LAYER...MAY YET NEED A
PATCHY -FZDZ MENTION FRI NIGHT. WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR DRIER AIR IN
THE SFC-950MB LAYER LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MORE OVC
STRATUS SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS TO REDUCE THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH LOWS TRENDING WARMER
AND HIGHS COOLER. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS AND COOLER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FRI/FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...PRECIP CHANCES/TYPES SAT
NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.

MODEL RUNS OF 18.12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT QUICKLY SLIDING THE IA
SHORTWAVE EAST TO NORTHERN IN BY 00Z SUN. IMPROVING AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT...THEN PUSHED NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES THRU
THE WESTERN RIDGING AND DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
SUN/SUN NIGHT. TREND...EXCEPT FOR CAN-GEM...IS SLOWING/STRONGER WITH
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING BY SUN NIGHT. GIVEN THE
REASONABLE AND IMPROVING CONSENSUS...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL SAT LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE
THAN CONTINUE PUSHING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND
FURTHER ENVELOP THE AREA IN WARMING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. SFC-
700MB WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...WITH 925MB TEMPS
A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C BY SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THIS FLOW. SFC-800MB LAYER QUITE SATURATED
BY SAT NIGHT...WITH DEPTH OF SATURATION AND FORCING/LIFT INCREASING
SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW APPROACH. TOP OF THE
MOISTURE COLUMN AROUND -5C SAT NIGHT...TOO WARM FOR ICE IN THE
CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP SAT NIGHT TO BE -FZDZ WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS/SURFACES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN SOME LIFT THRU
AT LEAST THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER...CONTINUED THE PATCHY -FZDZ
MENTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. INCREASING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE/SATURATION SUN...ALONG WITH A BROAD INCREASE OF LIFTING...
PRECIP CHANCE TRANSITIONS TO -RA. BY LATER THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
INCREASE ENOUGH OR DISTANCE BETWEEN INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE LOWER MOISTURE DECREASES ENOUGH FOR SEEDER-FEEDER TO
INTRODUCE ICE INTO THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE NEAR/ABOVE 0C
SFC-925MB LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN NIGHT...LEFT
PRECIP CHANCES AS -RA/-SN FOR NOW. SUSPECT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL NOT
FALL MUCH AND STAY NEARLY STEADY NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A
-FZRA MENTION FOR SUN NIGHT BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO ZERO IN ON THOSE
DETAILS. AS THE SFC-925MB LAYER SATURATES...FOG LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. INTRODUCED A PATCHY FOG MENTION
FROM LATER SAT EVENING INTO MON MORNING FOR NOW. WITH THE GENERAL
LACK OF SNOW COVER...AT THIS TIME NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
ANY FOG MIGHT BECOME. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT/
SUN AND WARMER OF LOWS SAT/SUN NIGHTS.

FOR MONDAY THRU CHRISTMAS DAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-RA/-SN CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD...
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TEMPERATURES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF 18.00Z/18/.12Z CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL NOAM MON...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE LOWER THRU UPPER MS VALLEY MON NIGHT/TUE. TREND IS A LITTLE
SLOWER MON THEN FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS TUE. GOOD
CONSENSUS FOR A 500MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED WITH
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEAST THRU THE
EASTERN CONUS. MID LEVEL LOW TO MIGRATE EAST WITH THIS ENERGY
THU...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AS THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST RELOADS. EVEN WITH A REASONABLY GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...PLENTY
OF LOWER LEVEL/SMALLER SCALE DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD.
DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PW VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1/2 INCH RANGE FOR MON INTO
TUE. THIS AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND
INCREASING FORCING/LIFT WITH IT. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE FOR MON INTO TUE REASONABLE. PRECIP TYPE IS THE BIG QUESTION
AS SFC-925MB TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 0C MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A -RA/-SN MIX ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FCST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNTIL LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR THE SFC THRU MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWER LEVEL
COOLING AND ANY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT MAINLY AS SNOW.
IMPROVING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A 48HR QPF TOTAL OF AS MUCH AS 1/2
INCH FROM 12Z MON TO 12Z WED...BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS FALLS AS RAIN
OR FALLS AS SNOW IS THE QUESTION. TIME WILL TELL AS THE LOW LEVEL
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. PRESENT TRENDS WOULD SPREAD SFC THRU
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THU...FOR
A GENERALLY DRY...POSSIBLY PARTLY CLOUDY...CHRISTMAS DAY. PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED MON INTO WED...WITH SMALL DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES.
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOKS TO HAVE THEM
WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EITHER REMAINED OR DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE IN THIS FAIRLY INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY ACT TO SCOUR SOME OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE CLOUD LAYER OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE VFR
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING THUS THE
TAFS WERE LEFT IN MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A VERY VERY BRIEF MVFR SHSN/FLURRY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 181812
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EITHER REMAINED OR DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAIRLY INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY ACT TO SCOUR SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE CLOUD LAYER OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY PROVIDE VFR CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THIS
OCCURRING THUS THE TAFS WERE LEFT IN MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A VERY VERY
BRIEF MVFR SHSN/FLURRY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 181812
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR CLOUDS HAVE EITHER REMAINED OR DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS FAIRLY INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY ACT TO SCOUR SOME OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE CLOUD LAYER OVERNIGHT...WHICH
MAY PROVIDE VFR CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ON THIS
OCCURRING THUS THE TAFS WERE LEFT IN MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A VERY VERY
BRIEF MVFR SHSN/FLURRY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 181811 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
WASHINGTON...OZAUKEE...WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE CAUSING ICING
ON ROADS ACROSS THESE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...UNTIL SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MILWAUKEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SUPERCOOLED DROPLET
FORMATION INTO MID AFTERNOON.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE SPREADING
WESTWARD INTO DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...PERHAPS FURTHER WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND ROAD
CONDITIONS...AND MAY ADD MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE WITH
THE ENDING TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT TIMES AT MILWAUKEE AND
WAUKESHA UNTIL 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY CAUSE ICING ON
RUNWAYS. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS MIXING OUT BY 13Z
FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.


AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ059-
     060-065-066.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 181751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF WISCONSIN AT 18Z. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SO ISW/Y50/PCZ/CWA/MFI MAY JUST STAY
CLOUDY NOW THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE GRB/ATW/SUE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD FLYING
WEATHER.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 181202
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
602 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME IFR CIGS WERE OBSERVED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WI. SATELLITE SHOWED PARTIAL CLEARING HEADED TOWARD FAR NE WI.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
CLEARING MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI BEFORE STALLING
OUT...SO KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING AT AUW/CWA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KARX 181106
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING
MUCH IF AT ALL AND DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
KRST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 18.09Z RAP AND 18.06Z NAM...NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD SO WILL KEEP THE MVFR CEILING IN PLACE FOR KLSE. AT
KRST...THERE SHOULD BE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AND WILL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 18Z
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 181106
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING
MUCH IF AT ALL AND DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
KRST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 18.09Z RAP AND 18.06Z NAM...NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD SO WILL KEEP THE MVFR CEILING IN PLACE FOR KLSE. AT
KRST...THERE SHOULD BE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AND WILL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 18Z
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 181106
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING
MUCH IF AT ALL AND DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
KRST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 18.09Z RAP AND 18.06Z NAM...NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD SO WILL KEEP THE MVFR CEILING IN PLACE FOR KLSE. AT
KRST...THERE SHOULD BE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AND WILL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 18Z
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 181106
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INDICATES THIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING
MUCH IF AT ALL AND DOUBTFUL THAT IT WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
KRST THIS MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE 18.09Z RAP AND 18.06Z NAM...NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD SO WILL KEEP THE MVFR CEILING IN PLACE FOR KLSE. AT
KRST...THERE SHOULD BE A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ONCE THESE MOVE OUT...BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SUGGEST THE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AND WILL SHOW THIS HAPPENING AROUND 18Z
AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 180926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A WEAKENING SFC TROF WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF WI
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WAS
COMBINING WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SWWD ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA.

CONCENSUS OF 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FCSTS SUGGEST THAT DRIER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL WI. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROF WEAKENING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A SFC HIGH GRADUALLY EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOSS OF SFC CONVERGENCE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING TO ABOUT THE NE TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
BY EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY REMAIN OVER CENTRAL WI
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN START EDGING BACK TO THE EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SINGLE DIGITS
OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A FRESH SNOW COVER RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS BUCKLING OF THE UPPER FLOW THEN RESULTS IN A STRONG CYCLONE
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...ANYONE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL RELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 00Z TUE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PIECES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO EASTERN CANADA.  WILL SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH A DRY
WEDGE IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE...BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS SATURATED AS
LAST NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.  CONTINUED CLOUDY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW.  WILL RAISE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT LITTLE CHANGES
WERE MADE ELSEWHERE.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY...AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK
SATURATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW.  WEAK LIFT WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE TO
THE WEST.  ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD BE PRESENT FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THEN AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WHICH COULD
MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.  GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 180915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 180911
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

PESKY UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
LAST LOBE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY HANGING BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT STILL COVER THE BULK OF WI...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CIRCULATION ENTERING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO PRIMARILY RESULTING IN
CLOUD GENERATION. FINALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
TRAVERSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD
TENNESSEE. SOME PEEKS AT THE SUN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WITH THE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EXPECT MORE CLOUD TO INVADE. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS...KEPT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWING SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
BLOCKED PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BRIEFLY INTO ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONTINUING ON TO FAVOR A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE RIDGE SETTING UP
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
MN/IA AREA BY MONDAY...WHICH THEN STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT IS NOW LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WITH THE MODELS
GENERALLY SETTLING IN ON A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION.

AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...INCREASING ADVECTION
OF WARM AND MOIST AIR BEGINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BROAD
WEAK LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING SATURATED OR NEARLY SO
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WITH THE TEMPERATURE REGIME STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FREEZING MARK...FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY. ADDED THIS SATURDAY NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. PERSONS WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO BE COGNIZANT OF THIS. BY MONDAY...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MAIN FORCING OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. BOOSTED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE AREA GETS ON THE COLD
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING COLD
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LARGE QUANTITIES
OF SNOW WILL FALL...IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW COVER BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 180545
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180545
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180545
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180545
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MODELS WERE SHOWING DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT CIGS WERE MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 0530Z. VSBYS WERE VFR. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH TO CIGS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINLY KEPT MVFR
CIGS...EXCEPT PREVAILING IFR AT RHI EARLY. THE NORTH SHOULD BE THE
FIRST PART OF THE AREA TO SCATTER OUT BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THAT
TO BE UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AROUND MIDDAY. THINK SKIES SHOULD FINALLY
CLEAR BY 00Z FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN CIG FORECAST IS NOT VERY
HIGH WITH MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES NEAR
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 180520
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 180520
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO RST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ITS
EXTREMELY CLOSE TO CLEARING WITH CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVER EASTERN
OLMSTED COUNTY. FIGURE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND THE STRATUS SHOULD
LEAVE THE TAF SITES. THE CLEARING SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LSE IS ALSO ON THE EDGE OF STRATUS...BUT
IN THIS CASE STRATUS IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE OVER
NORTHERN LA CROSSE COUNTY. A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PUSH
THIS STRATUS INTO LSE BY 08Z. THAT SAME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MARCHING THE STRATUS DECK TOWARDS RST...MOVING IN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 12Z. ONCE THE STRATUS MOVES IN THIS MORNING...THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND BEING NEAR THE MINIMUM OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH SUPPORTS THE STRATUS HANGING AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180307
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A LARGE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI AND OVER ALL OF MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SRN WI THU NT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION
IN THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY
SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180307
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A LARGE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI AND OVER ALL OF MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SRN WI THU NT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION
IN THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY
SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180307
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A LARGE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI AND OVER ALL OF MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SRN WI THU NT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION
IN THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY
SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 180307
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A LARGE STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI AND OVER ALL OF MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE REGION THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SRN WI THU NT BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THE STRATUS MAY REMAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION
IN THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY
SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KGRB 180000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...AND THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS CONDITIONS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VFR OR NO CIGS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT NOT THE BEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TONIGHT
PART OF THAT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 180000
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SOME MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THIS
EVENING...AND THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS CONDITIONS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HAVE VFR OR NO CIGS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT NOT THE BEST OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TONIGHT
PART OF THAT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KARX 172312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
512 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS SITS OVER THE LSE TAF SITE AND APPEARS TO
BE MAKING SOME WESTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS RST. ITS POSSIBLE THIS
BAND OF STRATUS DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF RST...SO AT RST ONLY PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN OF MVFR
BETWEEN 01-03Z. ALSO PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN LSE FOR 04-08Z THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOTH DISSIPATION OF STRATUS AND A CLEARING WEDGE
NEAR EAU AND MFI HEADING SOUTHWEST. IF RST ENDS UP WITH LONGER
CLEAR SKIES...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED JUST MVFR BR GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS. AFTER THIS...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI WITH MVFR CLOUDS ALONG AND
ITS WAKE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES...SOMEWHERE IN THE
07-08Z TIMEFRAME. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY. ANY BR/FOG THAT FORMS AT RST TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR NOON THURSDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WORKING ON IT.

REGARDING WINDS...A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 172312
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
512 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS SITS OVER THE LSE TAF SITE AND APPEARS TO
BE MAKING SOME WESTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS RST. ITS POSSIBLE THIS
BAND OF STRATUS DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF RST...SO AT RST ONLY PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN OF MVFR
BETWEEN 01-03Z. ALSO PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN LSE FOR 04-08Z THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOTH DISSIPATION OF STRATUS AND A CLEARING WEDGE
NEAR EAU AND MFI HEADING SOUTHWEST. IF RST ENDS UP WITH LONGER
CLEAR SKIES...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW
MAINTAINED JUST MVFR BR GIVEN CLOUD CONCERNS. AFTER THIS...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI WITH MVFR CLOUDS ALONG AND
ITS WAKE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES...SOMEWHERE IN THE
07-08Z TIMEFRAME. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY. ANY BR/FOG THAT FORMS AT RST TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR NOON THURSDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WORKING ON IT.

REGARDING WINDS...A LIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 172131
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI (MAINLY
VILAS COUNTY) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES COME TO AN END AS THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ENDS. AS THE
SNOW ENDS...CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WILL VARY FROM
MVFR TO VFR AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT THE IDEA OF SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WI
INTO THE FOX VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......BERSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 172131
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AS SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BECOME CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BECOME NNE (LESS FAVORABLE)...DELTA T/S DECLINE...AND
DEEP MOISTURE GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AND VORT
MAX) WILL END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LINGER SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING EFFECTS OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...AND THE FLURRIES SOMETIMES TAKE A FEW
EXTRA HOURS TO COME TO AN END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW IT THEY WILL
IMPACT TEMPS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WI INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...DUE TO
SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A 500MB VORT MAX AND MINOR DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS AREA SHOULD FILL BACK IN...AS THERE ARE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LEVELS...OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ONTARIO HEADED INTO THE AREA.
MODELS DO ADVERTISE SOME DRYING WORKING INTO THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN
THE OVERCAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH IF MODELS ARE OVER-DOING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT
COULD TURN OUT TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...SOME TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE NEW SNOW
FELL LAST NIGHT AND/OR TODAY. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE ON
THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 20S OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN IT
APPEARS STORMY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. DID LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK. FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY TO 961MB OVER LAKE
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...AT LEAST
SEVERAL OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ALONG
WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY TRAVELERS. USUALLY DO NOT
PUT A DAY 7 EVENT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND OTHER OFFICES ARE MENTIONING
IT...THUS WARRANTING ADDING IT. LEFT IT VAGUE DUE TO THE LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
NOT BE RESOLVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI (MAINLY
VILAS COUNTY) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES COME TO AN END AS THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ENDS. AS THE
SNOW ENDS...CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WILL VARY FROM
MVFR TO VFR AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT THE IDEA OF SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WI
INTO THE FOX VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......BERSCH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 172127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION IN
THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 172127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END BY DARK AS WE ARE IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. CLOUD OVER S WI IS THINNING
AND CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH INTO S WI OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY THURS MORNING BRINGING A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS. A WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE REGION IN
THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS SO COULD FINALLY SEE SOME SUN.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE ZONAL OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... BUT OVERALL
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL SO THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD OF
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S TO THE
MID 30S THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER REACHING THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION AT TIMES WHICH CAN LEAD TO OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT COULD BRING RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKER AND TO OUR NORTHWEST.

A STRONG UPPER JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO SET
UP OVER THE MIDWEST FROM SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WILL HELP TO DRAW WARMER AIR AND ALSO MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WI BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIP
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. PRECIP TYPE WILL END UP BEING A MIX. IT WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL TAP INTO ENERGY FROM AN UPPER JET OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TRACKING NORTHWEST
TOWARD LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7-8. OF
COURSE... THE FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM WILL
WAVER OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST DETAILS
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND MSN MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
THIS EVENING. EASTERN TAF SITES MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR OR VFR THIS
EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR BROKEN COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN TAF SITES THAN
MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 172040
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES OF KLSE AND KRST.
CURRENTLY THE REGION IS UNDER A SHARP AND DEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT MIXING AND CONTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS /HZ OR BR/. WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH KRST AND
IS INVOF KLSE...CLEARING IS LEADING TO MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENOUGH VERTICAL CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE MVFR -SHSN. SO...PERIODS OF
SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KRST MAY BE
RIGHT ON THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY NEAR 1KFT /BKN008-BKN012/.

ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SEEMS PROBABLE AT KRST...POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SURGE MORE CLOUD INTO THE TAF SITES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE KRST COULD GET INTO IFR FOG SHOULD
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THAT IN THE TAF
AS OF YET BUT DID KEEP MVFR FOG.

OVERALL...HAVE KEPT KLSE IN THE CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING PERIODS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A BIT MORE OPTIMISM FOR
THE KRST TAF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KARX 172040
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM WESTERN ONT TO
EASTERN ND TO MO/AR. SKIES HAD GENERALLY CLEARED UNDER/NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA/EASTERN DAKOTAS. FURTHER EAST...A
TROUGH/FRONT WAS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. CLOUDS
LINGERED IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF WI...WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH SPREADING MORE CLOUDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR...THE MI U.P. AND NORTHEAST WI. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE
ACROSS MN/IA...TEMPS SLOW TO WARM...EVEN WHERE THE GROUND IS SNOW-
FREE.

17.12Z MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZED QUITE WELL BUT ALL WERE 1 TO 2MB
TOO WEAK/FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE MO TO ND TO WESTERN ONT RIDGE AXIS.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT/THU. TIGHTER SIGNAL FOR A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE REGION THU NIGHT...BEING SQUEEZED BY
RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGHING.
TREND FAVORS FASTER/STRONGER OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SHORT-TERM
FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC-850MB TROUGHING/FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EAST OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. PLENTY OF 925MB MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION PROGGED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT IN/NEAR
THIS TROUGH AXIS. WOULD THINK WITH THE SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA THU THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BREAK UP/CLEAR BUT
925MB RH PROGS SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FIRMLY STUCK OVER THE AREA
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR 925MB. THEN FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU
THU NIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...SO EVEN IF THE
LOWER CLOUDS BREAK/CLEAR...MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS LOOKING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
CLOUD COVER THRU THE SHORT-TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3
OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT/THU. WITH MORE CLOUDS...TRENDED TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT/THU NIGHT AND COOLER OF GUIDANCE
HIGHS THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.

17.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE REGION AND MORE ENERGY DIGS TOWARD
WESTERN IA. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FRI NIGHT SAT AS THESE FEATURES
PASS NORTH/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND YET ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SAT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE
SAT NIGHT...ECMWF TAKES MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER...CAN-GEM QUITE AMPLIFIED DIGGING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
INTO NEB/DAKOTAS...GFS IN THE MIDDLE. OVERALL TREND IS SLOWER/
STRONGER WITH CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING SAT NIGHT. FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN AVERAGE SAT NIGHT.

BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT AND 850-500MB SATURATION WITH THE WAVE
APPROACHING THU NIGHT PASSES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI. THAT WITH
THE WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA SAT MORNING PASSES SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA SAT. FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FRI THRU SAT...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MOISTURE BELOW
850MB LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...FOR AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FRI THRU SAT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. A SLOW MODERATION OF
925MB TEMPS FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WEAK TO MDT LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW
COVER...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EVENTUALLY PULLS INCREASING
SFC-850MB MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING/THICKENING LOW CLOUDS AND WARMER LOWS. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAY 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 17.00Z/17.12Z IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO BE  DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NOAM SUN/MON.
HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION THESE PERIODS...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION
OF WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT 12Z SUN AND THE NEXT FEATURE
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT SUN NIGHT/MON.
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A CENTRAL NOAM LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TUE/WED...BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH HOW THE
SHORTWAVE PIECES INTERACT AND IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST WEATHER
HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. OVERALL TREND IS STRONGER...
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUESTION IS
HOW QUICKLY DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS FLOW. SMALL MAINLY -SN
CHANCE SUN PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASES SUN NIGHT THRU TUE IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS DIFFER IN THE
LOWER LEVEL/MESO-SCALE DETAILS BY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...AS FAR AS
925MB TEMPS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPES. DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW INTO/ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AS WELL. UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT...20-50 PERCENT
-RA/-SN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT PERIOD
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
TEMPS COOLING WED AS THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WOULD BE
EXITING EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONGER TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR SYSTEM TO SLOW EVEN MORE...LINGERING 20-40 PERCENT -SN CHANCES
ON WED OKAY FOR NOW. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
SUN-WED APPEARED GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES OF KLSE AND KRST.
CURRENTLY THE REGION IS UNDER A SHARP AND DEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT MIXING AND CONTAIN MOISTURE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS /HZ OR BR/. WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH KRST AND
IS INVOF KLSE...CLEARING IS LEADING TO MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENOUGH VERTICAL CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE MVFR -SHSN. SO...PERIODS OF
SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KRST MAY BE
RIGHT ON THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY NEAR 1KFT /BKN008-BKN012/.

ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SEEMS PROBABLE AT KRST...POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SURGE MORE CLOUD INTO THE TAF SITES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE KRST COULD GET INTO IFR FOG SHOULD
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THAT IN THE TAF
AS OF YET BUT DID KEEP MVFR FOG.

OVERALL...HAVE KEPT KLSE IN THE CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING PERIODS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A BIT MORE OPTIMISM FOR
THE KRST TAF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 171814
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES OF KLSE AND KRST.
CURRENTLY THE REGION IS UNDER A SHARP AND DEEP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT MIXING AND CONTAIN MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS /HZ OR BR/. WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH
KRST AND IS INVOF KLSE...CLEARING IS LEADING TO MORE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE MVFR
-SHSN. SO...PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KRST MAY BE RIGHT ON THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY NEAR 1KFT
/BKN008-BKN012/.

ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SEEMS PROBABLE AT KRST...POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SURGE MORE CLOUD INTO THE TAF SITES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE KRST COULD GET INTO IFR FOG SHOULD
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THAT IN THE TAF
AS OF YET BUT DID KEEP MVFR FOG.

OVERALL...HAVE KEPT KLSE IN THE CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING PERIODS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A BIT MORE OPTIMISM FOR
THE KRST TAF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DB



000
FXUS63 KARX 171814
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1214 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES OF KLSE AND KRST.
CURRENTLY THE REGION IS UNDER A SHARP AND DEEP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WHICH IS ACTING TO LIMIT MIXING AND CONTAIN MOISTURE IN
THE LOW-LEVELS /HZ OR BR/. WHILE SOME CLEARING HAS WORKED THROUGH
KRST AND IS INVOF KLSE...CLEARING IS LEADING TO MORE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE MVFR
-SHSN. SO...PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. KRST MAY BE RIGHT ON THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY NEAR 1KFT
/BKN008-BKN012/.

ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SEEMS PROBABLE AT KRST...POSSIBLE AT KLSE.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SURGE MORE CLOUD INTO THE TAF SITES. UNTIL
THAT TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE KRST COULD GET INTO IFR FOG SHOULD
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR LONG ENOUGH. HAVE NOT ADDRESSED THAT IN THE TAF
AS OF YET BUT DID KEEP MVFR FOG.

OVERALL...HAVE KEPT KLSE IN THE CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
CLEARING PERIODS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. HAVE A BIT MORE OPTIMISM FOR
THE KRST TAF.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KGRB 171803
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN
OVER NC WI...WHERE CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO
WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY WEAKENS DUE TO WAA
AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI (MAINLY
VILAS COUNTY) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES COME TO AN END AS THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ENDS. AS THE
SNOW ENDS...CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WILL VARY FROM
MVFR TO VFR AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT THE IDEA OF SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WI
INTO THE FOX VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 171803
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS
OCCURRING OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN
OVER NC WI...WHERE CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH.
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO
WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY WEAKENS DUE TO WAA
AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A FEW IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI (MAINLY
VILAS COUNTY) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES COME TO AN END AS THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ENDS. AS THE
SNOW ENDS...CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WILL VARY FROM
MVFR TO VFR AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT THE IDEA OF SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WI
INTO THE FOX VALLEY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING WILL OCCUR...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......BERSCH







000
FXUS63 KMKX 171745 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE IN A
REGION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS S WI SHOULD ALSO HELP END
FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S WITH CLOUD CLEARING LINE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF MADISON SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK UP OF CLOUDS
BY THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. MSN SHOULD
SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER BY EVENING AND EASTERN TAF SITES
MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR OR VFR THIS EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR
BROKEN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
TAF SITES THAN MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 171745 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE IN A
REGION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS S WI SHOULD ALSO HELP END
FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S WITH CLOUD CLEARING LINE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF MADISON SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK UP OF CLOUDS
BY THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. MSN SHOULD
SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER BY EVENING AND EASTERN TAF SITES
MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR OR VFR THIS EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR
BROKEN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
TAF SITES THAN MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 171745 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE IN A
REGION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS S WI SHOULD ALSO HELP END
FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S WITH CLOUD CLEARING LINE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF MADISON SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK UP OF CLOUDS
BY THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. MSN SHOULD
SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER BY EVENING AND EASTERN TAF SITES
MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR OR VFR THIS EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR
BROKEN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
TAF SITES THAN MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 171745 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE IN A
REGION OF GREATER LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS S WI SHOULD ALSO HELP END
FLURRIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S WITH CLOUD CLEARING LINE VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD. AREAS WEST OF MADISON SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK UP OF CLOUDS
BY THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARING LINE
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. MSN SHOULD
SEE SOME REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER BY EVENING AND EASTERN TAF SITES
MAY SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER CEILINGS WILL BE
MVFR OR VFR THIS EVENING AND WHETHER IT WOULD BE SCATTERED OR
BROKEN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT EASTERN
TAF SITES THAN MSN. MORE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS RISING TO VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KGRB 171203
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN WI
TODAY...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY DUE TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 171203
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN WI
TODAY...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY DUE TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 171203
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN WI
TODAY...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY DUE TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 171203
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
603 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN WI
TODAY...WITH FLURRIES FARTHER SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY DUE TO HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND FOR
THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS BEEN WORKING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...COULD
POSSIBLY REACH KRST AROUND MID MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 17.09Z
RAP AND 17.06Z NAM STILL SUGGEST PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE...SO WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING...THIS CLEARING
COULD FILL RIGHT BACK IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE DAY...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
IN THE EVENT THAT IT DOES REACH KRST. ALL THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04



000
FXUS63 KARX 171105
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND FOR
THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS BEEN WORKING
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...COULD
POSSIBLY REACH KRST AROUND MID MORNING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 17.09Z
RAP AND 17.06Z NAM STILL SUGGEST PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE...SO WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING...THIS CLEARING
COULD FILL RIGHT BACK IN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL
MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE DAY...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
IN THE EVENT THAT IT DOES REACH KRST. ALL THE MODELS THEN KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN PLACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 170929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170929
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOWFALL TRENDS AND AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI TODAY...AND CLOUD
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE WAS PIVOTING AND BECOMING
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. STEADY SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER FAR NE WI...AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER NC WI...WHERE
CONDITIONS WERE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN WI BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW VILAS
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT...SO WILL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVSY GOING THERE
UNTIL NOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS AND LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE (WINDS TURN NNE...INSTABILITY
WEAKENS DUE TO WAA AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES). A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVG AND OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WSTRN GREAT
LAKES.

USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TEMPS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS OVER NORTHERN
WI TONIGHT DUE TO NEW SNOW COVER AND CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT SPLIT FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN
THE EAST PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY 00Z TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO
TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...WILL
RELY ON THE ECMWF.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THICK CIRRUS WILL BE.  WILL STAY
CONSERVATIVE AWAY FROM THE COLD SPOTS WHERE DID DROP TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES.  THE CIRRUS WILL TEMPORARILY THIN OUT ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  BUT THEN WILL
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS START TO
LOOK SATURATED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY WEDGE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
THWART PRECIP.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LIGHT SNOW.  WILL MENTION
TO LATER SHIFTS.  ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP LOW STRATUS AROUND.  BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY THOUGH
ENOUGH WARM AIR AROUND COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 170915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NUDGED LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST
CWA LAST HOUR OR SO.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING POTENTIAL THIN SPOTS IN
OVERCAST VCNTY OF KDLL AND KLNR WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEFLY
HIGHER CIGS.  HOWEVER THIN SPOTS NOT INCREASING.  FARTHER
NORTHWEST...BACK EDGE OF STRATUS FIELD HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE MN.  THIS BACK EDGE WOULD REACH PARTS OF WRN CWA
IN THE EARLY AFTN.

RECENT TAMDAR ASCENT KMKE SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION ABV
3.8K. 00Z KGRB SOUNDING MEASURED CONSIDERABLE COLUMN RH UP TO 500MB.
WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THRU SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN WL BE TEMPERED BY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET
PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THIS
MRNG WITH AFTN CLEARING IN THE WEST.  CLOUDS MAY ALSO BREAK UP FOR A
TIME IN THE EAST DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE BUT THINKING
THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  KMKX VCP-31 CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY WEAK RETURNS INDICATING FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN OUT OF LOW
CLOUDS.  WL KEEP FLURRY MENTION THRU THE MRNG AS MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF SWINGS THRU.

WL KEEP MORE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA TNGT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF FINALLY
EXITS AREA LATE TONIGHT.  EXPC AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WEST. LACK OF SNOW COVER WL PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
FAR DUE TO PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WINDS.  HOWEVER IF
MORE CLEARING IS EXPECTED...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WITH 850 TROUGH
DRAWING CLOSER A WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS THOUGH BEST FORCING
FROM THIS IS STILL TO OUR WEST SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. 925 TEMPS SHOW AROUND -8C THURSDAY MODIFYING A BIT TO
-4C BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MODIFIES THE AIRMASS FURTHER
FOR SUNDAY WITH 925 TEMPS TO -1 TO -3C. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH INDUCED FORCING STILL
REMAINING TO OUR WEST ACROSS IA/MN AND INTO NW WI. SO WILL LEAVE
SUNDAY FORECAST DRY AS WELL.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER JET WILL BE CARVING OUT AND AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE EVOLVING SURFACE/850 LOWS TO OUR WEST. A
CONVEYOR OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO SRN WI IS EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ALSO SHOWS A COOLER 850 TEMP
REGIME. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 3-4 WARMER AND WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE OF A MIX RATHER THAN SNOW AT THE OUTSET. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GFS TAKES A WEAK LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WI WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE.
POTENTIAL FOR TRICKY THERMAL PROFILES SO WILL KEEP THE MIXY NATURE
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH SOME EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY IN THE NW CWA. 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF MELTING OF ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS WITH THIS PERIOD. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURFACE/850 LOW
DEVELOPING ON EASTERN SIDE OF INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.
BY THIS TIME COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE DRAWN INTO ALL OF SRN WI AS
THIS LOW WINDS UP TO OUR EAST PER GFS OR SOUTHEAST PER ECMWF. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS SECONDARY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOR NOW WL REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH REGARDS
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF TODAY. RECENT ASCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING
FROM KMKE INDICATES STRONG INVERSION ABV 3.5K. ELEVATED INVERSION
ONLY VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY THINS INTO
TNGT. POSSIBLE THAT WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE IN ERN CWA MAY
CAUSE CIGS TO INCREASE TO VFR LATER TODAY BUT WL LIKELY CARRY MVFR
OR LOW VFR CIGS INTO TNGT FOR NOW. EXPC LGT FLURRIES TO CONTINUE
THIS MRNG AS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH MID-MORNING. RECENT
SHIP REPORTS INCLUDING TUG NEAR THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KT RANGE. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WL CONTINUE THIS MRNG AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS WARMER LAKE MI WATERS. EXPC WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MRNG AND AFTN FOLLOWED BY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE OPEN
WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 170800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 170800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170800
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ANTICIPATED TODAY IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION. FOG ENHANCEMENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BACK EDGE TO THE LOW CLOUDS FROM CENTRAL MN DOWN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS ARE DROPPING SOUTH WITH
THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW. ANTICIPATING MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANY PROLONGED PEEKS AT THE SUN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.

COLDEST POOL OF AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. CURRENT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES EAST
WITH RIDING RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
OMEGA BLOCK LINGERS ALL THE WAY TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SHIFTS
EAST FAR ENOUGH FOR TROUGHING TO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. APPEARS A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN TAKE PLACE WITH A MORE
ZONAL REGIME BRINGING SEVERAL WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EASTWARD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT...BUT ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND HOVERING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE FREEZING MARK DIURNALLY SO THAT A MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE STILL EVOLVING. STILL A CHANCE
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES COULD BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS TO THE
REGION...SO SNOW LOVERS SHOULD NOT GIVE UP HOPE JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 170546
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170546
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170546
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 170546
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT
TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THEY SHOULD EXIT BY AROUND 09Z OR 10Z...BUT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE WERE AREAS OF VFR CIGS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 05Z...BUT UPSTREAM CIGS WERE MAINLY MVFR SO HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT THEM THAT WAY OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WERE VFR EXCEPT IN
THE LOCATIONS THAT HAD SNOW WHERE THEY WERE MVFR AND IFR. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 18Z WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE CIGS RISING DURING THE DAY TO
VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 170459
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SYSTEMS MOVING AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN
THE SAME ABOUT THE CLOUDS - HOW LONG WILL THEY LINGER. AT LEAST FOG
NOT A CONCERN NOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SECOND IMPULSE WAS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
FIRST. WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND
IMPULSE NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE MORE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH LARGE AIRMASS CHANGE
TAKING PLACE.

ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN STRATUS DECK OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA...MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY CLEARING IN OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...OR PERHAPS EVEN LATER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER NEXT 24
HOURS BUT WILL TRY AND REMAIN OPTIMISTIC. ALSO HAD TO MODERATE SOME
GUIDANCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON MORE TREND TO HOLD
CLOUDS IN...BUT COULD BE TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE IT CLEAR OFF. WILL
FOLLOW NAM IDEAS OF CLEARING LINE WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST SERVICE
AREA BUT HIGHER RISK OF CLOUDS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEATHER BASICALLY NIL THROUGH REST OF WORK WEEK AS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING
WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING CLOUD COVER ALL WEEK THOUGH SO PREFER IDEA
OF SMALL DIURNAL CHANGES BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON IF INVERSIONS CAN
BE DECREASED TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.

AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL U.S. WE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BETTER FORCING AND PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS IS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAN THE 16.12Z GFS/GEM.
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DECENT LIFT AND FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPREAD PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BASED ON THIS. THE 16.12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE
INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THEN...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH
THE 16.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 1 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MINUS 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A LOT OF 1.5-2.5 KFT CIGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT COUPLED WITH COLD AIR SQUEEZING
OUT SOME FLURRIES.

THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHEN/IF THE LOW CIGS WILL EVER CLEAR. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PESSIMISTIC OF THE MODELS...WITH RH
FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AREN/T
GOING ANYWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS OFFERS
SOME HOPE...HINTING THAT A BREAK TO SCATTERED SKIES COULD OCCUR
STARTING LATER WED AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOMENT...GOING TO LEAN ON THE NAM AND STAY THE COURSE WITH THE LOW
CIGS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM....SHEA/DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 170013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NORTH OF RHINELANDER WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRPORTS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NORTH OF RHINELANDER WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRPORTS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NORTH OF RHINELANDER WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRPORTS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 170013
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
INCLUDING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ROUGHLY FROM RHINELANDER TO DOOR COUNTY WITH LESS ELSEWHERE. LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WIND FIELD IS NOT IDEAL BUT
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVELS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH.
DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR VILAS COUNTY FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COLDER TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON IN
VILAS COUNTY AND LIGHT SNOW ENDING ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH. COULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A LOW SCOOTING BY IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT HERE STUCK IN THE
MIDDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE REIGN OF CLOUDINESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM IS INSISTENT THAT SKIES CLEAR OUT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN. BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVINCED...AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. SO THE CLOUDS REMAIN FOR NOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. WEAKENING FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY WEARS
ON AND FINALLY A RETURN OF THAT YELLOW DISC IN THE SKY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER...BUT SEASONABLE.

THIS WEEKEND
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WHILE REMNANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
THINGS DRY...SHOULD ANY PRECIP FALL IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. OUR
FLIRTATIONS WITH THE SUN WILL COME TO AN END AS THE WEEKEND
CARRIES ON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND...A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE AWAY FROM THE SPLIT FLOW LOOK AND
MOVE TO A MORE TYPICAL WINTER APPEARANCE. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY...BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDES ONE LAST SHOT AT
GETTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR AREAS THAT LOST THEIR SNOW COVER
RECENTLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
REGARDING WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL FALL AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MODEL FLAVOR OF TODAY COULD
MEAN SOME RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. FOR NOW...WANT TO STRESS THAT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS STILL LAGS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NORTH OF RHINELANDER WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRPORTS IN VILAS COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VIS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......LUCHS
AVIATION.......MG






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