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000
FXUS63 KARX 041132
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KLSE/KRST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AFTERNOON THERMAL
CUMULUS IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL LAYER...RETURNING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BIGGER IMPACT
WILL BE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID 20 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING LATE AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE



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000
FXUS63 KGRB 041055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BLUSTERY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KGRB 041055
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BLUSTERY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT WITH EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 040902
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
402 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AT 4 AM...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXTENDED FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
ST LOUIS MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WAS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. OTHER THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...THERE WILL NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING. THIS FROST WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DUE TO THIS...
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. AS A
RESULT...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES OUR
AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FORECAST WAS KEPT DRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE...BREEZY WEST WINDS...AND
DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT THEY FIT IN WELL WITH THE GFS MOS. IN ADDITION TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS DIURNAL MIXING WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THE GFE MIXED DOWN TOOL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEW POINTS
COULD POTENTIALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. SINCE THIS IS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY...JUST LOWERED THE SURFACE DEW POINTS
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
ARE ONLY IN THE THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
WITH BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KNOTS...WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEM
AND GFS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS STILL
A BIT UNCLEAR WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. AT THE SAME TIME...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR
THOSE PLANNING ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ON THAT DAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE



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000
FXUS63 KMKX 040812
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WE/VE CLEARED OUT NICELY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. BUT WE REMAIN VERY CYCLONIC
ALOFT TODAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A
DECENT CLOUD DECK ONCE WE HEAT UP A BIT. SOME THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL PRESERVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY.  MUCH COOLER 50S TODAY...COOLER EAST THAN WEST.

WE CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S. A
FEW SPOTS COULD GO TO MID 30S.  FROST NOT MUCH OF A THREAT GIVEN THE
DECENT MIXING/FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
WEST OF OUR AREA.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE SEEMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT TEMPS
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF
MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN
THE 20-22C RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY
GOOD MIXING...RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGHS OF 80 TO 85. WESTERLY
WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE...AS
TEMPS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE COOLER SATURDAY...THOUGH STILL NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE SLIDING THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT NOT A
LOT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN PROGGED TO SLIDE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH...WITH THE STRONGER GFS
AND CANADIAN HIGH KEEPING IT DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKER
HIGH WITH THE GFS ALLOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH
QUICKER...BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH EVENTUALLY BRING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...JUST A MATTER OF GETTING THE
TIMING RIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FILL IN QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.  IN ADDITION...THERE ARE SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER EAST/NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN THAT WILL ROLL SOUTH THIS MORNING...OR EVEN DEVELOP IN
PLACE.  WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MAKING IT OVER
TO KMSN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN CLEARING ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WE HAD A
GALE WARNING...BUT WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UNDER THAT LEVEL
SO BACKED OFF TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT...THE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVES ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z THURSDAY. THEREFORE...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM TODAY THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KGRB 040752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 040448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST BOTH SITES PUSHING ALL THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SKIES ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL START BOTH SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MIXED LAYER. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND KLSE COULD SEE A VFR CEILING FOR
A WHILE FROM THIS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND THE WINDS TO
SETTLE DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR VERY EARLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KGRB 040336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 040336
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 040112
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...APPROACHING COLD FRONT AIDED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FROM SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE EVENING...DIMINISHING IN THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY BE
A FEW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM STILL ON TAP TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE DOWN LAKE STILL EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CLOUDS IN THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPGRADED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS
MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH UP TO 200 J/KG. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THERE IS AN INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS BUT WITH MIMINMAL CAPE ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY IN SE WI WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERFENCE SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE USA ON WED WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED WILL MOVE TO THE SE USA WED NT INTO THU WITH HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SRN WI THU AFT AND LINGER INTO SAT AM. AT THE
SFC...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON THU WHILE A N-S WARM
FRONT WILL THEN SET UP FROM UPPER MI THROUGH ERN WI. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO FRI WITH ESPECIALLY WARM TEMPS ON FRI AS 925 MB TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 20C. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND 70S FAR EAST. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY BUT WILL NOT TRAVEL TOO FAR INLAND ESPECIALLY ON FRI.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THERE ARE GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND PLEASANT SPRING WX TO THEN PREVAIL ON SUN.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS INCREASING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 2 AND 6Z AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES. 1-2 KFT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT EASTERN TAF STIES
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BROKEN VFR CUMULOUS.

MARINE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BRISK NORTH
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES MAY LINGER LONGER SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR/SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KARX 032307
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSING STEADILY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
LINES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH WESTWARD
EXPANSION INTO MINNESOTA. THE 03.21Z HRRR AND 03.20Z CR-HRRR STILL
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A WESTWARD EXPANSION SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
TEMPO GROUPS WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES UNTIL THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOWN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT THE
SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT BOTH
SITES. ALSO EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM AND THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILING WITH THESE CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 032221
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
521 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRIEFLY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WAS ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. NORTHERN RADARS ALSO INDICATE A BAND OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE TRAILING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND ALONG THE 850 COLD FRONT. THIS TRAILING BAND MAY HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP TSRA IN THE
TAFS A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR OR HIGHER END MVFR
DIURNAL CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......




000
FXUS63 KGRB 032038
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
338 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WAS CONCERNED THAT SOME HAIL WOULD DEVELOP TODAY DUE
TO THE LOW WET BULB ZERO AND FREEZING LEVELS SEEN ON THE 12Z GRB
AND INL SOUNDINGS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. ONCE THE INVERSION BURNED OFF CUMULUS
DEVELOPED IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT CLOUD COVER...AS SURFACE TO 1.5KM
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INCREASED INTO THE 8.5 TO
10.5C/KM RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAD MUCAPE
VALUES OF 600-800J/KG IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 00Z SO THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE NIGHT BUT MODELS DID
HAVE SOME QPF IN FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN
SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE A BIG WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...PCPN TRENDS WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AND A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDS NGT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS LATE
THU INTO THU NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE FRONT IS TIMING THROUGH FASTER THAN INDICATED THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND WILL BE MOVG THROUGH DURING THE LEAST UNSTABLE
TIME OF DAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A H8 WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS. AS OF 17Z CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN VFR
AND THERE WERE ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT YET SEEN
ANY ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NO LIGHTNING HAS SHOWN UP. ANY
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z. LOOKS LIKE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KMKX 032031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS
MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH UP TO 200 J/KG. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHEN THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. THERE IS AN INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS BUT WITH MIMINMAL CAPE ITS HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY IN SE WI WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERFENCE SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE USA ON WED WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED WILL MOVE TO THE SE USA WED NT INTO THU WITH HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SCT-BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SRN WI THU AFT AND LINGER INTO SAT AM. AT THE
SFC...THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI ON THU WHILE A N-S WARM
FRONT WILL THEN SET UP FROM UPPER MI THROUGH ERN WI. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO FRI WITH ESPECIALLY WARM TEMPS ON FRI AS 925 MB TEMPS
WARM ABOVE 20C. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND 70S FAR EAST. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY BUT WILL NOT TRAVEL TOO FAR INLAND ESPECIALLY ON FRI.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN AS A STRONG CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THERE ARE GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTORM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND PLEASANT SPRING WX TO THEN PREVAIL ON SUN.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS INCREASING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 2 AND 6Z AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES. 1-2 KFT
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT EASTERN TAF STIES
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BROKEN VFR CUMULOUS.

.MARINE

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BRISK NORTH
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES MAY LINGER LONGER SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KARX 032025
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 032025
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND SOME HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT 1/10 INCH OR LESS AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BUT PERSISTENT  NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE WILL STAY IN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG WITH PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST. HAVE KEPT PATCHY GOING IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN HIGH WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER AND WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. WE THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

GUSTY WEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. PLAN ON ONLY A TRACE TO POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOCALLY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 031751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1251 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...HIGHS TODAY WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. MUCAPES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOAR TO
500 TO 750 J/KG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT
PORTEND SEVERE WEATHER...THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PV ANOMALIES TRACKING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER CHANCES WOULD BE FAIRLY LOW...IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THANKS TO A DOMINANT RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE BECOMING SPLIT AT THE SAME TIME.  IN
GENERAL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RELATIVELY FEW DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL FOLLOW
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE.  THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  PROBABILITIES LOOK HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY...SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS RELATIVELY
TIGHTER OVER EASTERN WI.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT MOIST THOUGH...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK.
WILL PREFER TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER 70S TO MID 80S HIGHS SEEMS
LIKELY.  THE SURGE OF SUMMER LIKE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS. AS OF 17Z CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN VFR
AND THERE WERE ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT YET SEEN
ANY ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NO LIGHTNING HAS SHOWN UP. ANY
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z. LOOKS LIKE INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 031715
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL SET TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TIGHTER
GRADIENT/DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS 13-18KT G25-30KTS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRONT AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF SHRA/SCT TSRA AS IT THEY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
ROUGHLY 21Z-02Z TIME-FRAME. TIMING ESTIMATE REMAINS 23-01Z THRU KRST
AND 00-02Z THRU KLSE. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THIS TAF PERIOD...AND MOVED SHRA AND ANY POTENTIAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM TO A TEMPO MENTION AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANY SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO ONLY IMPACT THE KRST/KLSE AIRFIELDS FOR
1/2HR OR LESS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/
EARLY WED MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BY LATE
WED MORNING TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF AND SOME GUSTINESS OF THE
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 04.15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BOYNE
LONG TERM......BOYNE
AVIATION.......RRS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KMKX 031552
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH UP TO 200 J/KG...BUT AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SUPPORTS SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULOUS AROUND 6
KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WTIH TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 031552
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH UP TO 200 J/KG...BUT AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SUPPORTS SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULOUS AROUND 6
KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WTIH TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 031130
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS...BECOMING BROKEN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN 12Z TAFS. EITHER WAY...ANY
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3000 FT AGL. IN ADDITION...NOT
EXPECTING ANY REDUCTION IS VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM WITH SHOWERS.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20 KT RANGE. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS AT
KRST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHOWERS...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 031114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...HIGHS TODAY WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. MUCAPES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOAR TO
500 TO 750 J/KG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT
PORTEND SEVERE WEATHER...THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PV ANOMALIES TRACKING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER CHANCES WOULD BE FAIRLY LOW...IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THANKS TO A DOMINANT RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE BECOMING SPLIT AT THE SAME TIME.  IN
GENERAL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RELATIVELY FEW DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL FOLLOW
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE.  THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  PROBABILITIES LOOK HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY...SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS RELATIVELY
TIGHTER OVER EASTERN WI.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT MOIST THOUGH...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK.
WILL PREFER TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER 70S TO MID 80S HIGHS SEEMS
LIKELY.  THE SURGE OF SUMMER LIKE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI




000
FXUS63 KARX 030905
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED CAPE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WAS FOUND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE THEN LOCATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BE EXITING NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE
0-1 KM MEAN LAYER CAPES REMAIN CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH OF THE SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE AND
THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
PRIMARILY LINEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INVERTED V IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...THERE WILL GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE WILL BE DEEP DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. THE RAP /WHICH SOMETIME HAS ISSUES WITH MIXING TOO DEEP/
HAS THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND NAM...ONLY
HAVE THE WIND GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 03.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED
FROST.

ON FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...AND DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. THIS WAS 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MODEL BLEND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY. HOWEVER THEY DID FIT IN WELL WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED GFS
AND ECMWF GRIDS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SURFACE AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE ONLY IN THE THE
500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO DEVELOP.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND DRY. THE GFS AND GEM EVEN KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE PRECIPITATION RETURNING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW TREND...STAYED WITH WITH
CONSOLIDATED MODEL GRIDS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOME LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATE EVENING AT KLSE...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY EXPECT SKC-SCT CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME
SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED. BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN
00-05Z TUE EVENING. HAVE ADDED -SHRA MENTION FOR NOW. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TS THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
EARLY TUE EVENING IS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING
TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR...WILL SWING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TUE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THROUGH THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE THERE
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...THE RAIN
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 030833
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEFORE THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...HIGHS TODAY WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. MUCAPES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SOAR TO
500 TO 750 J/KG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 6000 FT. ALTHOUGH THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT
PORTEND SEVERE WEATHER...THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PV ANOMALIES TRACKING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER CHANCES WOULD BE FAIRLY LOW...IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD...THANKS TO A DOMINANT RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE BECOMING SPLIT AT THE SAME TIME.  IN
GENERAL THOUGH...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK RELATIVELY FEW DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL FOLLOW
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
DEPARTING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN
ITS WAKE.  THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  PROBABILITIES LOOK HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FOX VALLEY...SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS RELATIVELY
TIGHTER OVER EASTERN WI.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT MOIST THOUGH...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK.
WILL PREFER TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...VERY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UPPER 70S TO MID 80S HIGHS SEEMS
LIKELY.  THE SURGE OF SUMMER LIKE WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

LINGERING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

.WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030756
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

.WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 030400
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS .

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MAXIMUM MIXING IN THE 2 PM TO 6 PM
TIMEFRAME AS WE MIX TO NEARLY 800 MB AND TAP THE 30 TO 35 KT WIND
CORE. WE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER COVERAGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT...THINKING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT  WEATHER WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS . THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE  THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TOO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WINDS ALOFT COULD ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. HAVE NOT ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST YET BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CORRECT IN THE FORECAST
MODELS. WE COULD SEE AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ON
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER IS...REALLY DOUBTING THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY
AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDING OVERHEAD AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOME LINGERING SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS LATE EVENING AT KLSE...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY EXPECT SKC-SCT CONDITIONS FOR KRST/KLSE INTO TUE
AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME
SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED. BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN
00-05Z TUE EVENING. HAVE ADDED -SHRA MENTION FOR NOW. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ADD TS THREAT AT THIS TIME...BUT A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW
EARLY TUE EVENING IS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINTING
TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 00Z...PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR...WILL SWING WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TUE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS LIKELY WON/T BE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030345
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN CWA. HENCE NEEDED TO
LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
INTRODUCE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030345
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN CWA. HENCE NEEDED TO
LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
INTRODUCE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 030317
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1017 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

LINGERING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND WIND WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...REMAINING HIGH BASED CU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL WI. POSSIBLE
SOME FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT SOME AREAS BUT WL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS LOOK IN
REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BULK OF FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST LIKELY A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
T-STORM WILL AFFECT TAF SITES MOSTLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SOME LOWER CIGS AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES LATER
TUE NIGHT POST SHOWERS AS COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN.

&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN
FALLS INTO DRY LOW LEVELS AND ACCELERATES TO LAKE SURFACE. ALSO
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HENCE
BEEFED UP WORDING IN NEARSHORE FORECAST AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...REMAINING HIGH BASED CU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL WI. POSSIBLE
SOME FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT SOME AREAS BUT WL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS LOOK IN
REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BULK OF FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST LIKELY A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
T-STORM WILL AFFECT TAF SITES MOSTLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SOME LOWER CIGS AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES LATER
TUE NIGHT POST SHOWERS AS COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN.

&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN
FALLS INTO DRY LOW LEVELS AND ACCELERATES TO LAKE SURFACE. ALSO
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HENCE
BEEFED UP WORDING IN NEARSHORE FORECAST AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022301
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8000 FT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS
WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 022301
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8000 FT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. INITIAL TIMING OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOTAL TOTALS
WELL INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES TO AROUND 800 J/KG INDICATE A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL. WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH AND EVENING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH




000
FXUS63 KARX 022232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS .

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MAXIMUM MIXING IN THE 2 PM TO 6 PM
TIMEFRAME AS WE MIX TO NEARLY 800 MB AND TAP THE 30 TO 35 KT WIND
CORE. WE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER COVERAGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT...THINKING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT  WEATHER WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS . THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE  THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TOO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WINDS ALOFT COULD ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. HAVE NOT ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST YET BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CORRECT IN THE FORECAST
MODELS. WE COULD SEE AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ON
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER IS...REALLY DOUBTING THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY
AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDING OVERHEAD AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU FIELD WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC/SCT CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH MORE CU
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TUE. MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH. LIKELY SEE SOME SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TS MOVING IN TOWARD 00Z WED.
BETTER CHANCES BETWEEN 00-05Z TUE EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANY MENTION FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SAGGY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS TIGHTENS TUE MORNING THOUGH...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDING
POINTING TO MIXING AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS LIKELY WON/T BE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 022037
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS .

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MAXIMUM MIXING IN THE 2 PM TO 6 PM
TIMEFRAME AS WE MIX TO NEARLY 800 MB AND TAP THE 30 TO 35 KT WIND
CORE. WE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER COVERAGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT...THINKING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT  WEATHER WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS . THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE  THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TOO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WINDS ALOFT COULD ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. HAVE NOT ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST YET BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CORRECT IN THE FORECAST
MODELS. WE COULD SEE AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ON
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER IS...REALLY DOUBTING THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY
AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDING OVERHEAD AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET.
PLAN ON WEST WINDS INCREASING BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT BY 14-15Z.

WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER/GUSTIER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO LOOKING FOR A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS LIKELY WON/T BE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 022037
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS .

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT MAXIMUM MIXING IN THE 2 PM TO 6 PM
TIMEFRAME AS WE MIX TO NEARLY 800 MB AND TAP THE 30 TO 35 KT WIND
CORE. WE SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
WITH A TRAILING AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR ANY
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS  IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE LIMITED THUNDER COVERAGE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT...THINKING SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT  WEATHER WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS . THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHERE  THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TOO. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL  TO WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WINDS ALOFT COULD ENHANCE MIXING AND LIMIT ANY FROST
POTENTIAL. HAVE NOT ADDED FROST TO THE FORECAST YET BUT IT MAY BE
NEEDED IF THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CORRECT IN THE FORECAST
MODELS. WE COULD SEE AN AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ON
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER IS...REALLY DOUBTING THAT WE WOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS
SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY
AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RIDING OVERHEAD AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE PATTERN AND
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE INT FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET.
PLAN ON WEST WINDS INCREASING BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT BY 14-15Z.

WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER/GUSTIER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO LOOKING FOR A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BUT COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS LIKELY WON/T BE A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH RAIN AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KMKX 022015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021942
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HEATING LED TO THE FORMATION OF CIGS
AROUND 5-6KFT TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021942
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
ACROSS THE STATE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ROSE
QUICKLY...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD SCATTERED SMALL AMOUNTS OF QPF IN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
THIS WOULD NOT BE A SHOCK...BUT SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANYTHING ON RADAR OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM REACH THE
800-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THE SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF WISCONSIN IN GENERAL THUNDER.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER LOW...BELOW 6000 FT...AS SEEN ON
BUFKIT TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS. THUS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PCPN TRENDS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...AND A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN...WITH COOL CONDITIONS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A BIG WARMUP
LATE IN THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA TUESDAY EVG...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
THERE THROUGH MID-EVG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200-500 J/KG...LI`S ZERO TO -3 AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM)...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FCST. LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL
HAIL WITH ANY TSTM. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH STRONG WAA
COULD EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE ADDING A SMALL CHC OF TSTMS ON THU
NGT. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY...AND 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE GFS
DEVELOPS MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVE THROUGH
C/EC WI SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING CONSIDERATIONS WILL HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
ALLOWING FOR A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BACK TO THE FCST
AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HEATING LED TO THE FORMATION OF CIGS
AROUND 5-6KFT TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KGRB 021754
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SKIES WILL START OUT SUNNY THIS MORNING BUT SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH. A
BRIEF SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THINK VIRGA IS MORE
LIKELY WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
AROUND NORMAL.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MAKE FOR LITTLE INSTABILITY BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 5000
TO 6000 FT MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME PLACES HAVE HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND. SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN
DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS BY MID-WEEK WITH ONE UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER CA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE TO RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS (TUE/TUE NIGHT AND SATURDAY).
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE QUITE A RANGE WITH WARMING TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AHEAD OF EACH COLD FRONT...THEN FALLING BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
NE WI TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. DESPITE
STRONG BULK SHEAR VALUES CARRYING OVER INTO THE EVENING...WANING
INSTABILITY WOULD PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM TURNING SEVERE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ONSET OF CAA...COUPLED WITH N-NW WINDS COULD EVEN PRODUCE A LITTLE
LAKE ENHANCEMENTOVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI. MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH...MAINLY LOWER 40S SOUTH.

AS THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT
AN UPPER LOW MAY FORM OVER LOWER MI WITHIN THIS TROUGH. THIS WOULD
KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WI (ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AND
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT...THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A BLUSTERY AND
COOLER DAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 30 MPH. MAX TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S FAR NORTH...UPPER 50S FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.

THE NEWLY FORMED CLOSED UPPER LOW/STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENING OVER WI. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH MIN TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE WIND SPEEDS CLOSELY AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DROP
(BELOW 5 MPH) COULD ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FORM. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE NEARLY
OVERHEAD...DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN PASSING CLOUDS WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...MODIFYING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
MAX TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS
AWAY FROM LAKE MI REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

THIS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD KEEP NE WI DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW SETS UP A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. FRIDAY COULD BE A RATHER MILD DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DROP SE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO NE WI. TOO EARLY YET TO
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS...BUT IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE...
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST STRONGER STORMS ON SATURDAY. IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR DRYING TO OCCUR. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS
TO ALSO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...THUS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (COOLER LAKESIDE).
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HEATING LED TO THE FORMATION OF CIGS
AROUND 5-6KFT TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MG




000
FXUS63 KARX 021723
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 02.00Z RUNS AND WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED APPROACH.

FOR TODAY...A SHORT-WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...KEEPING PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO HOME...RAP/GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY FILL-IN WITH BROKEN
THERMAL CUMULUS. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS CLOUD DECK
GIVEN HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS UP TO AT LEAST 500 HPA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT SPRINKLES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERMAL CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN +13 AND
+15 CELSIUS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO DEEPENS TO AROUND 800 HPA WITH ROUGHLY 25 TO
30 KTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 MPH OR MORE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
25 MPH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 100 KT 300
HPA JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT...INCREASED POPS TO 80 PERCENT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 100-200 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. WITH A
COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGHS UPPER 50S/60S) IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY
NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE EACH DAY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
70S AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONUS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH AND A FOUR CORNERS
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THIS POINT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT WILL SCATTER OUT BY SUNSET.
PLAN ON WEST WINDS INCREASING BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT BY 14-15Z.

WILL BE WATCHING FOR STRONGER/GUSTIER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH. ALSO LOOKING FOR A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 021456 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED OR BROKEN
CUMULUS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. GFS IS STILL SHOWING LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS GFS DEWPOINTS PROBABLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. LOOKING AT MESOSCALE MODELS...COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN
LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME ON TUESDAY NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. AFTER FROPA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...NORTH WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND BROAD TROUGH
BRINGS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 700 MB AND 850 MB
COLD POOLS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CREATING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE
..50J/KG OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE TOO MEAGER FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

GFS BRINGS A RIBBON OF LIGHT QPF ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED ALONG A FOND DU
LAC...MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE...BUT PCPN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO 2-
METER DEW POINTS THAT ARE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MAV MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED AND MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IF NOT LOWER...FEEL
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT MOST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON 925 MB TEMPERATURES THE MIXING ALSO BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WELL INLAND...WHICH ARE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED DIURNAL CU. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT
WEST WINDS. 925 MB TEMPS ON A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG INVERSION SO
CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EAST AND THE LOWER 40S WEST
LOOK GOOD.

TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF ONTARIO. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THEY DROP
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. PERHAPS ANOTHER SETUP FOR A
PNEUMONIA FRONT...16F TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

A BRIEF (HOUR TO TWO HOURS LONG) BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR
THIS BAND WHICH INCLUDES LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
STREAK ALL COMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE NORTH. THIS STRONG FORCING LEADS TO HIGH VALUES OF
UPRIGHT OMEGA FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB. THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS SKINNY BUT SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE STRONG
FORCING TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR THIS LINE. DEEP
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT WITH THE LINE...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME 0-3KM SHEAR AT ABOUT 20-30KTS THAT COULD HELP WITH
GETTING SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
850-700MB WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CU FIELD FORMING AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND
0C...SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE COMES IN INTO THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON BOTH THE 02.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS LINGERS IT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR THE MAINLY VFR-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE TO ERODE/DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU EXPECTED INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BASES AROUND 5K FT. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

MARINE...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EASING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BACKING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH




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