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000
FXUS63 KARX 292008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 292008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH THE CLOUDS/WINDS THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH RACES TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN AS WELL AND HELP TO DROP THESE WINDS DOWN
WHICH WILL TIME WELL WITH LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6
PM.

THIS LAST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE/MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
WELL WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING TO THE WEST IN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THE 29.12Z ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH HAVING THE LOW COME
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WHILE THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM
ALL TAKE THE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
TRACK. THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS BEING ABOVE
FREEZING. SO...WHILE MOST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERN
WISCONSIN WOULD STAY DRY TOMORROW...HAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF
AND BROUGHT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY WITH HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ALONG WITH WHEN RAIN WILL MOVE IN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IN AHEAD OF IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70F
IF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE EVENING...WHICH IS WHAT
THE 29.12Z ECMWF IS SHOWING. THE 29.12Z NAM/GFS ARE FASTER WITH
DEVELOPING RAIN ALONG A BAND FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ANGLING
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA. 29.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY HIGH ON
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH A SATURATED COLUMN FROM ABOUT 800MB ON UP AS
THE BAND MOVES IN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY SHOWING UP
IN THESE PROFILES...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER DUE TO
THE STRONG FORCING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH.

BEYOND THIS WE ARE MAINLY LOOKING AT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHIND THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGRB 291957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE
LARGE SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND
NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE ENOUGH
OPPORTUNITIES AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN THAT
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COMPLICATED SYSTEM TODAY WITH A KITCHEN SINK OF DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAYS WEATHER SHOULD EXIT THE STATE AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER MIDLVL AIR AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLEARING IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA NOW...AND AFTER TIMING ITS ARRIVAL MOST OF NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MEAN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN PER THE USUAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL START OFF QUIET...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS THEN HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPERLVL JET
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
18Z...BUT AS THE NORM WITH WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE MEAN FLOW...MODELS
ARE HAVING ISSUES AGREEING ON A SOLUTION AS THESE FEATURES SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. SEEMS THE TRACK OF THE PRECIP IS A BIT SOUTH AND SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE AS RAIN AND WILL BE LIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT AND SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WERE DECREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TODAYS TEMPERATURE TODAY WERE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS TYPICAL OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON NGT. IN
FACT...THERE IS PROBABLY MORE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ON TDAS RUNS COMPARED WITH THOSE 24 HRS AGO.
SYSTEM STILL SEEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF NEAR
ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE FAR N NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS NOT HIGH. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FM THE PREV FCST FOR THE
FAR N...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER S AS THE N/S POSN OF THE
PCPN NOW MORE IN QUESTION. WL CONT TO HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACRS THE FAR N IN THE GRIDS...AND MENTION IN THE HWO.

HANDLING OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT...PROBABLY
BECAUSE IT/S A LOT BIGGER. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN FACT...LEADING BAND OF PCPN IN ISENT LIFT
ZONE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE MAY STAY N OF THE FCST AREA ENTIRELY.
BUT A BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED
NGT/EARLY THU AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SOME THUNDER FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. BUT
AS OF THE NOW THE PCPN BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WL CROSS THE AREA AT NGT
WHEN INSTABILITY WL PROBABLY BE AT A MINIMUM...SO DID NOT ADD
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS YET.

THE MODELS HAVE GIVEN UP ON OR AT LEAST BACKED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
ON THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE SW...SO THAT IDEA COULD
RESURFACE AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...STUCK WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE
LARGE SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND
NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE ENOUGH
OPPORTUNITIES AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN THAT
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COMPLICATED SYSTEM TODAY WITH A KITCHEN SINK OF DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAYS WEATHER SHOULD EXIT THE STATE AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER MIDLVL AIR AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLEARING IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA NOW...AND AFTER TIMING ITS ARRIVAL MOST OF NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MEAN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN PER THE USUAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL START OFF QUIET...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS THEN HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPERLVL JET
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
18Z...BUT AS THE NORM WITH WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE MEAN FLOW...MODELS
ARE HAVING ISSUES AGREEING ON A SOLUTION AS THESE FEATURES SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. SEEMS THE TRACK OF THE PRECIP IS A BIT SOUTH AND SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE AS RAIN AND WILL BE LIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT AND SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WERE DECREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TODAYS TEMPERATURE TODAY WERE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS TYPICAL OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON NGT. IN
FACT...THERE IS PROBABLY MORE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ON TDAS RUNS COMPARED WITH THOSE 24 HRS AGO.
SYSTEM STILL SEEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF NEAR
ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE FAR N NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS NOT HIGH. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FM THE PREV FCST FOR THE
FAR N...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER S AS THE N/S POSN OF THE
PCPN NOW MORE IN QUESTION. WL CONT TO HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACRS THE FAR N IN THE GRIDS...AND MENTION IN THE HWO.

HANDLING OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT...PROBABLY
BECAUSE IT/S A LOT BIGGER. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN FACT...LEADING BAND OF PCPN IN ISENT LIFT
ZONE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE MAY STAY N OF THE FCST AREA ENTIRELY.
BUT A BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED
NGT/EARLY THU AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SOME THUNDER FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. BUT
AS OF THE NOW THE PCPN BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WL CROSS THE AREA AT NGT
WHEN INSTABILITY WL PROBABLY BE AT A MINIMUM...SO DID NOT ADD
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS YET.

THE MODELS HAVE GIVEN UP ON OR AT LEAST BACKED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
ON THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE SW...SO THAT IDEA COULD
RESURFACE AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...STUCK WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KGRB 291957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE
LARGE SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND
NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE ENOUGH
OPPORTUNITIES AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN THAT
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COMPLICATED SYSTEM TODAY WITH A KITCHEN SINK OF DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAYS WEATHER SHOULD EXIT THE STATE AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER MIDLVL AIR AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLEARING IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA NOW...AND AFTER TIMING ITS ARRIVAL MOST OF NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MEAN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN PER THE USUAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL START OFF QUIET...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS THEN HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPERLVL JET
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
18Z...BUT AS THE NORM WITH WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE MEAN FLOW...MODELS
ARE HAVING ISSUES AGREEING ON A SOLUTION AS THESE FEATURES SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. SEEMS THE TRACK OF THE PRECIP IS A BIT SOUTH AND SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE AS RAIN AND WILL BE LIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT AND SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WERE DECREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TODAYS TEMPERATURE TODAY WERE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS TYPICAL OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON NGT. IN
FACT...THERE IS PROBABLY MORE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ON TDAS RUNS COMPARED WITH THOSE 24 HRS AGO.
SYSTEM STILL SEEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF NEAR
ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE FAR N NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS NOT HIGH. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FM THE PREV FCST FOR THE
FAR N...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER S AS THE N/S POSN OF THE
PCPN NOW MORE IN QUESTION. WL CONT TO HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACRS THE FAR N IN THE GRIDS...AND MENTION IN THE HWO.

HANDLING OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT...PROBABLY
BECAUSE IT/S A LOT BIGGER. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN FACT...LEADING BAND OF PCPN IN ISENT LIFT
ZONE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE MAY STAY N OF THE FCST AREA ENTIRELY.
BUT A BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED
NGT/EARLY THU AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SOME THUNDER FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. BUT
AS OF THE NOW THE PCPN BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WL CROSS THE AREA AT NGT
WHEN INSTABILITY WL PROBABLY BE AT A MINIMUM...SO DID NOT ADD
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS YET.

THE MODELS HAVE GIVEN UP ON OR AT LEAST BACKED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
ON THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE SW...SO THAT IDEA COULD
RESURFACE AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...STUCK WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KGRB 291957
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES REMAINS ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE
LARGE SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND
NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE ENOUGH
OPPORTUNITIES AND SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN THAT
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO END UP NR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CARRY OVER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COMPLICATED SYSTEM TODAY WITH A KITCHEN SINK OF DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES...QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT TODAYS WEATHER SHOULD EXIT THE STATE AROUND 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP TO AN END IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER MIDLVL AIR AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLEARING IN EASTERN
MINNESOTA NOW...AND AFTER TIMING ITS ARRIVAL MOST OF NORTHEAST
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MEAN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN PER THE USUAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL START OFF QUIET...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS THEN HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND AN UPPERLVL JET
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
18Z...BUT AS THE NORM WITH WEAKER IMPULSES IN THE MEAN FLOW...MODELS
ARE HAVING ISSUES AGREEING ON A SOLUTION AS THESE FEATURES SLIDE
SOUTHEAST. SEEMS THE TRACK OF THE PRECIP IS A BIT SOUTH AND SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE AS RAIN AND WILL BE LIGHT.

ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT AND SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...THOUGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WERE DECREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TODAYS TEMPERATURE TODAY WERE COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AS TYPICAL OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RGN MON NGT. IN
FACT...THERE IS PROBABLY MORE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION OF THE
MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ON TDAS RUNS COMPARED WITH THOSE 24 HRS AGO.
SYSTEM STILL SEEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF NEAR
ADVISORY-CRITERIA SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION STILL SEEMS TO
BE THE FAR N NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS NOT HIGH. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FM THE PREV FCST FOR THE
FAR N...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT FARTHER S AS THE N/S POSN OF THE
PCPN NOW MORE IN QUESTION. WL CONT TO HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACRS THE FAR N IN THE GRIDS...AND MENTION IN THE HWO.

HANDLING OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE CONSISTENT...PROBABLY
BECAUSE IT/S A LOT BIGGER. TIMING IS A BIT SLOWER NOW...SO ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN FACT...LEADING BAND OF PCPN IN ISENT LIFT
ZONE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE MAY STAY N OF THE FCST AREA ENTIRELY.
BUT A BAND OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WED
NGT/EARLY THU AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RGN. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SOME THUNDER FOR AT LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. BUT
AS OF THE NOW THE PCPN BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WL CROSS THE AREA AT NGT
WHEN INSTABILITY WL PROBABLY BE AT A MINIMUM...SO DID NOT ADD
THUNDER TO THE GRIDS YET.

THE MODELS HAVE GIVEN UP ON OR AT LEAST BACKED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
ON THE IDEA OF SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE
THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE SW...SO THAT IDEA COULD
RESURFACE AT SOME POINT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...STUCK WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND OF
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 291750
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KRST AND IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH KLSE AROUND 29.20Z. BEHINF THIS FRONT THE WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST AND ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WIND WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 291702
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
LIGHTER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KGRB 291702
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CONTINUED MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY LINGER FREEZING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
THE LONGEST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AFTER THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP COME
TO AN END...MUCH BETTER FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS RAIN ENDS
AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE BEFORE VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD BE
MUCH NICER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH
LIGHTER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 291410
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 907 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KARX RADAR IS SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO THIS...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
IS QUICKLY WANING ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER MANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME SLICK
SPOTS THIS MORNING...SO BEWARE.

BESIDES ALLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...MADE QUITE
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION DATA. WITH THE HRRR
AND RAP HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION...ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THEM. IN ADDITION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG WIND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST
SPEEDS UP A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-
     095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 291232
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS PRODUCED A GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 8 TO 9 AM. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 AM WHERE
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/RAIN WILL END AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS
WARMER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING AT 19 TO 25 KTS...GUSTING TO 33 KTS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AN INCREASE TO 20 TO 28 KTS WITH GUST
APPROACHING 39 KTS AT TIMES AT KRST. A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. LOOK FOR WINDS TO FINALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KGRB 291143
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 291143
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291143
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291143
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
643 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW...SLEET
AND RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 290922
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 290922
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 290922
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AT 09Z. IT SHOULD MOVE
FAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EAST OF HERE BY MIDDAY. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
TRICKY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOSTLY WET SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN FURTHER
SOUTH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SO SOME
ELEVATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHATEVER WET SNOW IS
ABLE TO FALL SHOULD MELT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
NEAR 40 IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING. LOWS
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD DUE TO A STEADY WIND AND LACK OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER JET WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST BUT IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WERE STILL LOCATION ISSUES AMONG THE 00Z MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS REMAINED
SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO PREVIOUS VERSIONS...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM-NH WERE GENERALLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE QPF AND
SHOWED MORE DIFFERENCES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR THIS REASON
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY...ALONG WITH HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS PLACED THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES ALONG THE
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
BORDER BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. RAIN WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP. HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

A MORE POTENT LOOKING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AND BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM.

THERE WAS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC
LATER IN THE WEEK THAN THERE WAS IN THE RECENT PAST. HOWEVER...THE
GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST AFTER
EXITING WISCONSIN...WHILE THE EC SHOWED A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE REGION. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE QPF OUT OF SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN WHILE
THE EC SOLUTION HAD QPF REMAINING IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THOUGHT AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290844
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A BROKEN BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION WITH IT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER.
MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE OVER A DEEP LAYER...FROM 1000-300
MB...WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AS WELL. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT THE WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOT
VERY STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE 29.00Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY
DRY AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE...BUT BASED ON THE RADAR RETURNS AND THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVERCOMING THIS DRY AIR AND ALLOWING
SATURATION TO OCCUR. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH THE CATEGORICAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS A CONCERN. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING IF AND WHEN ICE IS PRESENT
IN THE CLOUDS. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MESSY WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE PARTIAL MELTING COULD
ALLOW SOME SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST RAIN REPORTED SO FAR. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD MITIGATE THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE SHORT
DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPOPAUSE FOLD BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO ABOUT 500 MB OR SO. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD...DEEP SUBSIDENCE WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 9 C/KM UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 TO 800 MB. WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES...EXPECTING THE SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT OVER
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA...THESE SHOULD APPROACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY TO COVER THE HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ONCE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOES THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 29.00Z MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND JUST BRUSHES THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST
NORTHEAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY. WITH THE GFS BEING SOME WHAT OF A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WILL TREND TOWARD IT WITH SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN THE I94 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC
AND PUSH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
RIGHT NOW...ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE
BEST PART OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKER
WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD COME ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCES MU CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 40S MORE LIKELY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
DECENT CAPE AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG
WITH THE THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD KEEP SOME
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECWMF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECWMF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 290506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH TAF SITES WITH 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL
LAYER. RAIN TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FROM 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KSRT
AND 29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING...HOWEVER...REVEALS MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY. BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY...
BUT STILL MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ONCE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS BETTER MOISTENED. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT GUSTS OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN UNFAVORABLE MIXING...BUT STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS FROM 14 TO 20 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KLSE AND NEARING 40
KTS AT KRST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290302
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1002 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KARX 282347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 16 KT RANGE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AT KRST/KLSE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FROM 45 TO
60 KTS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL LAYER. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
LIMIT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION.

PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT AND NARROWED
PRECIPITATION TIMING TO BETWEEN 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KRST AND
29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. PHASE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. AS RAIN MOVES IN...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR RANGE. ONCE RAIN PUSHES
EAST...LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 29.18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 26 TO 34
KTS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AS HIGH AS 38 KTS AT
KRST AND 30 KTS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 282347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 16 KT RANGE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AT KRST/KLSE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FROM 45 TO
60 KTS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL LAYER. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
LIMIT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION.

PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT AND NARROWED
PRECIPITATION TIMING TO BETWEEN 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KRST AND
29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. PHASE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. AS RAIN MOVES IN...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR RANGE. ONCE RAIN PUSHES
EAST...LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 29.18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 26 TO 34
KTS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AS HIGH AS 38 KTS AT
KRST AND 30 KTS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 16 KT RANGE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AT KRST/KLSE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FROM 45 TO
60 KTS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL LAYER. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
LIMIT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION.

PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT AND NARROWED
PRECIPITATION TIMING TO BETWEEN 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KRST AND
29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. PHASE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. AS RAIN MOVES IN...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR RANGE. ONCE RAIN PUSHES
EAST...LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 29.18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 26 TO 34
KTS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AS HIGH AS 38 KTS AT
KRST AND 30 KTS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 282347
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE 10 TO 16 KT RANGE TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AT KRST/KLSE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT FROM 45 TO
60 KTS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL LAYER. NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
LIMIT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 20 KTS. WILL CONTINUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION.

PRECIPITATION QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT AND NARROWED
PRECIPITATION TIMING TO BETWEEN 29.10Z TO 29.13Z AT KRST AND
29.11Z TO 29.14Z AT KLSE. PHASE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT APPEARS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. AS RAIN MOVES IN...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DROP INTO THE MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR RANGE. ONCE RAIN PUSHES
EAST...LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 29.18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 26 TO 34
KTS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AS HIGH AS 38 KTS AT
KRST AND 30 KTS AT KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282311
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PRECIPITATION TYPES MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR THE
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. MAIN BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM 13Z TO
19Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION...THUS EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT COULD LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND SHEAR FROM ABOUT 09Z TO AROUND 15Z SUNDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AT 220/230 DEGREES AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH THE 00Z
TAFS...DID BUMP UP SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH AT SOME SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF WE SHOULD GET SOME DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KARX 282045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 282045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 282045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 282045
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS HIGH WAS PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SNOW FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO SHOW UP ON THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOW AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -1 TO -6C HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S/. DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 5 TO 20F.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S
THROUGH LOWER 80S. THE 28.12Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 200 MB WARM
LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 900 MB WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMEST NOSE OF THIS WARM LAYER WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 2 TO 8C RANGE. AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
WILL BE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF
OPPORTUNITY OF SLEET AND SNOW...AND THEN AS THE AIR MASS MOISTENS
THE WARM NOSE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND THERE WILL BE A LOST OF
ICE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION BEING MAINLY
LIQUID. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WILL BE HOW COLD THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THINKING THAT IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COMPLETELY. MEANWHILE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN HERE ICING LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE A NARROW BAND AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE NARROW BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER. CONSIDERED
PUTTING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH THE THREAT BEING
MINIMAL OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STEEP 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL MIX
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THEIR PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THEY NOW SHOW THAT MUCH
OF THEIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
94. MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY CLIP TAYLOR AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY...TOOK A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NOW SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THIS ALLOWS LESS TIME FOR BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. DUE TO
THIS...OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SHORT TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TOO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KMKX 282011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KGRB 282006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282006
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PRETTY TYPICAL LATE MARCH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING
CONSIDERABLE DAILY VARIATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION...
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE A FORECAST ISSUE MUCH OF THE TIME.

THE LARGE SCALE WL HAVE MODEST AMPLITUDE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE AND QUITE ENERGETIC BAND OF WESTERLIES WL CONT ACRS
MUCH OF THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. THERE MAY BE SOME SPLITTING
INTO SEPARATE STREAMS AT TIMES. THE LACK OF AMPLITUDE ON THE LARGE
SCALE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ROLLERCOASTERING ARND NORMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH WX SYSTEM. THERE WL BE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN...WITH AMNTS LIKELY ENDING UP NR NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH OUT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY AS WAA RAMPS UP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A COMPLEX YET QUICK HITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
PER MODEL GUIDANCE AND DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVERCOME. DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO GET GOING
BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE REGION. IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH FEATURE AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE PUNCHES IN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY 15Z...THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW QUICKLY WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE VERY WARM...WHILE THE NAM12 WAS ON
THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM AND WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.
TRIED TO LEAN TOWARDS SREF/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY WERE A GOOD
COMPROMISE AND WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AFTER 15Z...PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM SW TO
NE AS WARMER AIR INVADES THE STATE...WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TRANSITION. AT 18Z...MAINLY NORTHERN AND THE NORTHEAST
CORNER WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
WORRIED THAT STRONG FORCING MOVING THROUGH AROUND 18Z WILL KEEP
THINGS COOLER ALOFT...AND FREEZING PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THESE
AREAS. LOW LEVEL CRITICAL THICKNESSES ON THE SREF AND ECMWF
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SO KEPT THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IT WONT BE TOO LONG THOUGH AFTER THE BETTER
FORCING MOVES OUT AND THE WARM AIR WINS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE
CWA CHANGING OVER THE ALL RAIN BY 21Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW
THE LONGEST...HOWEVER THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND WARMER TEMPS
MEANS ANYTHING THAT STICKS WONT LAST LONG.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AFTER
21Z. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NUDGING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT...SO LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL VEER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

PCPN FM THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CARRIED TRACE PRECIPITATION /SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES/
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FLOW COULD BE NWLY
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN N-C WI. CONTD TO CARRY THAT IN THE
FCST...BUT TRAJECTORIES WERE NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS
BEYOND CHC CATEGORY. SUBSIDENCE IN THE CAA SHOULD RESULT IN DECRG
CLDS IN ALL BUT THE LAKE-EFFECT AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT FCST ISSUE WL BE SYSTEM DIVING SE ACRS THE AREA MON
NGT/TUE MORNING. IT/S A FAIRLY SML SYSTEM...SO THERE ARE
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE MAIN PCPN BAND BTWN THE
MODELS. IT ALSO HAS SOME SIMILARITIES TO A SYSTEM THAT DROPPED A
NARROW BAND OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS ON SE MN/NE IA/FAR SW WI
LAST WEEK. TOOK POPS UP TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE N...WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST FAVORED LCN FOR PCPN. DID NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER
YET GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW WL MENTION AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN ACRS THE FAR N/NE IN THE HWO...BUT SYSTEM WL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

A STRONGER/BIGGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WL TRACK TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE
DRAWN NWD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS
WL BE TRICKY...AND WL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CLDS/PCPN.

FINALLY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESP ON THE ECMWF...OF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-WK SYSTEM STALLS S OF
THE AREA. THE PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPED A VERY DEEP
CYCLONE WITH THIS. THE 00Z RUN PUT HEAVY PCPN AMNTS INTO E-C
WI...WHILE THE 12Z RUN IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER S. SYSTEMS SUCH AS
THIS CAN BE A REAL PROBLEM...SINCE THE DYNAMICS GENERATING THE
VERY RAPID DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE CAN EASILY COOL THE AIR COLUMN
ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW.
THAT/S AN OUTLIER POSSIBILITY FOR NOW...BUT BEARS WATCHING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....ALLEN
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 281749
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 18-20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 45-60KTS WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS STAY AROUND 10-20KTS. THE
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT WHAT IT FALLS AS IS IN QUESTION. THE PROFILE LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE A LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT JUST
MATTERS WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS AT THE GROUND. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE P-TYPE AS
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281704
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281704
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KGRB 281704
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281704
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SSW WINDS AT
45 KNOTS AT 1500 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOULD MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY...WITH EASTERN AND NORTHERN TAF SITES CHANGING
TO RAIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST SLUSHY AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ALLEN






000
FXUS63 KMKX 281643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING INLAND. MAY SEE DEW
POINTS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
A FEW LOWER 40S NEAR THE DELLS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE EASTERN SITES BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...BEFORE FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES. A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 13Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT
RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER
TONIGHT...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING INLAND. MAY SEE DEW
POINTS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
A FEW LOWER 40S NEAR THE DELLS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE EASTERN SITES BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...BEFORE FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES. A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 13Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT
RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER
TONIGHT...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 281115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
WINTRY MIX TO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KRST
STARTING AT 11Z WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT KLSE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 57
KTS IN FROM 1500 TO 2000 FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KRST
WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LLWS
POTENTIAL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY AT KLSE WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 281115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
WINTRY MIX TO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KRST
STARTING AT 11Z WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT KLSE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 57
KTS IN FROM 1500 TO 2000 FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KRST
WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LLWS
POTENTIAL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY AT KLSE WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KARX 281115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
WINTRY MIX TO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KRST
STARTING AT 11Z WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT KLSE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 57
KTS IN FROM 1500 TO 2000 FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KRST
WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LLWS
POTENTIAL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY AT KLSE WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP



000
FXUS63 KARX 281115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A
WINTRY MIX TO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KRST
STARTING AT 11Z WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT KLSE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. ALSO...HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 57
KTS IN FROM 1500 TO 2000 FT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON KRST
WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT LLWS
POTENTIAL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY AT KLSE WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER IN THE VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. WET SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. AN INCH OF
SNOW OR SLUSH POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD ALL MELT AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 281114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. WET SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. AN INCH OF
SNOW OR SLUSH POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD ALL MELT AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. WET SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. AN INCH OF
SNOW OR SLUSH POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD ALL MELT AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 281114
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 1000 FT AGL AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. WET SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
EARLY SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. AN INCH OF
SNOW OR SLUSH POSSIBLE WHICH SHOULD ALL MELT AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KGRB 280856
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 280856
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND A STEADY
SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LIGHT SNOW
MAY ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SUNDAY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD PERMIT A FEW HOURS OF WET SNOW
BEFORE FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT TO RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. WHATEVER MIGHT FALL WILL MELT QUICKLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING IN MILDER AIR FROM
THE PLAINS STATES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE TIMING...TYPE
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.

A SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD BE
DEPARTING...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. THE 00Z VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM-NH HAD
QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPCOMING SYSTEM...FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS WITH LOCATION OF QPF...WHICH WAS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
EC AND GEM...BUT WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. RECENT
TRENDS LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...BUT THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE. DID NOT GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
NEARLY AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN CLOSE TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING
SHOWERS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN
THAT...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS TO DISCERN MUCH MORE
DETAIL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC



000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280804
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT THERE WILL
BE TWO SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT EMERGE FROM THIS TROUGH
WITH ONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER GOING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERN WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WAVE THAT GOES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE LOCAL REGION AS IT BRINGS IN A ROUND OF
STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH MODERATE AND DEEP QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-300 MB LAYER.
THIS DYNAMICAL FORCING LOOKS TO GET A BOOST WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS
COMING INTO PLAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE COLD FRONT
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT STRONG WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR LOWS EARLY TONIGHT AND SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 32 OR ABOVE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS BECOMES
IMPORTANT IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 28.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER
ICE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS OR NOT. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING
A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE
GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN. FORTUNATELY...WITH THE RISING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE HOURS OR SO OF THE MIX
BEFORE GOING OVER TO RAIN. THIS MAY STILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A LITTLE BIT OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THINK THIS REALLY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM UP THROUGH
ABOUT 850 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE WINDY AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH IS CLOSE BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
COMING IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. THE 28.00Z ECMWF
HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH...BUT
STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE 28.00Z GFS OR NAM. WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT
AND GO DRY FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TAKE
IT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 280448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 280448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 280448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 29.06Z. PERIODS OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 28.15Z...BUT STILL
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING FOR SOME SOUTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT KRST
AFTER 29.01Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 280335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS



000
FXUS63 KARX 272323
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
KEPT SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THE COMBINATION OF COLD 925 MB
TEMPERATURES /-6 TO -10C/ AND STILL SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS
SOME PARTS OF THE REGION KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND
MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN 550 AND 450 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS
MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA...SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
MAY CREEP INTO THE AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES /IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/ WILL BE FOUND IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS.

ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2 TO 4C WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 27.12Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AT MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA /BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z/ AND THE ECMWF IS THE
SLOWEST /BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z/. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGESTING NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 09Z SUNDAY...DECIDED TO
SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN. PRECIPITATION TYPE
STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN. WITH THE AIR MASS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS IT COOLS THE LAYER
BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. THIS AIR MASS THEN RECOVERS AS STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LARGE LAYER OF WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE AREA. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
THIS...STILL LOOKING AT A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE.

ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND
GUSTS TO CLIMB UP TO 40 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY TO SEE WHETHER A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
WHETHER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE GFS HAS KEPT THIS SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GEM HAS AN OPEN WAVE THAT PRODUCES PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FINALLY...THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THIS DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THIS MAY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO COLD
CONSIDERING THAT MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR 20C AND A PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT INTO
REGION FROM THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES BEING AN ISSUE...THERE WAS
SOME DISCUSSION THAT THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPES UP TO 1200 J/KG /MAY NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH IF THE HIGHS ARE WARMER/. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...THE CONSENSUS WAS
TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CIRRUS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
MOVING DUE SOUTH ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...ROGERS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 272229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 272229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 272229
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
529 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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