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000
FXUS63 KGRB 231749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VERY MOIST AIR AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB AND ATW TAF SITES.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE RATHER PERSISTENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
COULD BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z
AND 03Z ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES...BUT
ANTICIPATE STATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP THEREAFTER.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VERY MOIST AIR AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB AND ATW TAF SITES.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE RATHER PERSISTENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
COULD BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z
AND 03Z ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES...BUT
ANTICIPATE STATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP THEREAFTER.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VERY MOIST AIR AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB AND ATW TAF SITES.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE RATHER PERSISTENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
COULD BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z
AND 03Z ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES...BUT
ANTICIPATE STATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP THEREAFTER.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB







000
FXUS63 KGRB 231749
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VERY MOIST AIR AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY INCLUDING GRB AND ATW TAF SITES.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE RATHER PERSISTENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
COULD BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z
AND 03Z ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAF SITES...BUT
ANTICIPATE STATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP THEREAFTER.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......ESB






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 231701
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ARE NOW SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL BE PAST KRST BY 18Z BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE. ONCE THESE MOVE
THROUGH...EXPECT THAT BOTH SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...NO DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS WITH LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23.12Z NAM AND 23.15Z RAP BOTH INDICATING THE
STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN BOTH FORECASTS. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FOR TONIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE WINDS
AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TOO STRONG WITH TOO
MIXING TO ALLOW IT TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 231701
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ARE NOW SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL BE PAST KRST BY 18Z BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE. ONCE THESE MOVE
THROUGH...EXPECT THAT BOTH SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...NO DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS WITH LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23.12Z NAM AND 23.15Z RAP BOTH INDICATING THE
STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN BOTH FORECASTS. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FOR TONIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE WINDS
AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TOO STRONG WITH TOO
MIXING TO ALLOW IT TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 231701
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ARE NOW SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL BE PAST KRST BY 18Z BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE. ONCE THESE MOVE
THROUGH...EXPECT THAT BOTH SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...NO DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS WITH LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23.12Z NAM AND 23.15Z RAP BOTH INDICATING THE
STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN BOTH FORECASTS. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FOR TONIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE WINDS
AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TOO STRONG WITH TOO
MIXING TO ALLOW IT TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04




000
FXUS63 KARX 231701
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BUT ARE NOW SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. EXPECT THAT THESE
WILL BE PAST KRST BY 18Z BUT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLSE. ONCE THESE MOVE
THROUGH...EXPECT THAT BOTH SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...NO DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL OCCUR WHICH SHOULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CEILINGS WITH LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 23.12Z NAM AND 23.15Z RAP BOTH INDICATING THE
STRATUS SHOULD FORM AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN BOTH FORECASTS. NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG FOR TONIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE WINDS
AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD BE TOO STRONG WITH TOO
MIXING TO ALLOW IT TO FORM.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 231530 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS
TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE
CONVECTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX AND IS
PRODUCING A LOT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BEHIND THIS LINE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VSBYS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY MONITORING A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION AFTER THAT. WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES COME BACK DOWN QUITE FOR A SHORT TIME IN AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...PROBABLY LOCALLY 1/2SM TO 1 SM.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTER THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT BASED ON LATEST
WEBCAMS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND FORECAST MODELS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD NEAR THE SHORE FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
SHEBOYGAN...BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING FOG JUST OFF SHORE THAT MAY
PUSH BACK IN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 231530 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS
TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE
CONVECTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX AND IS
PRODUCING A LOT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BEHIND THIS LINE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VSBYS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY MONITORING A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION AFTER THAT. WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES COME BACK DOWN QUITE FOR A SHORT TIME IN AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...PROBABLY LOCALLY 1/2SM TO 1 SM.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTER THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT BASED ON LATEST
WEBCAMS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND FORECAST MODELS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD NEAR THE SHORE FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
SHEBOYGAN...BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING FOG JUST OFF SHORE THAT MAY
PUSH BACK IN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 231530 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS
TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE
CONVECTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX AND IS
PRODUCING A LOT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BEHIND THIS LINE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VSBYS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY MONITORING A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION AFTER THAT. WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES COME BACK DOWN QUITE FOR A SHORT TIME IN AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...PROBABLY LOCALLY 1/2SM TO 1 SM.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTER THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT BASED ON LATEST
WEBCAMS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND FORECAST MODELS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD NEAR THE SHORE FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
SHEBOYGAN...BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING FOG JUST OFF SHORE THAT MAY
PUSH BACK IN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 231530 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO LET THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS
TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE
CONVECTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING COMPLEX AND IS
PRODUCING A LOT OF CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE
HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING BEHIND THIS LINE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VSBYS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING DUE TO THE STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY MONITORING A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE THESE STORMS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TO ABOUT A LINE
FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO MADISON TO BURLINGTON...WITH
MESOSCALE MODELS DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION AFTER THAT. WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES COME BACK DOWN QUITE FOR A SHORT TIME IN AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...PROBABLY LOCALLY 1/2SM TO 1 SM.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTER THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT BASED ON LATEST
WEBCAMS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND FORECAST MODELS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD NEAR THE SHORE FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO
SHEBOYGAN...BUT SATELLITE IS SHOWING FOG JUST OFF SHORE THAT MAY
PUSH BACK IN. COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 231454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 231454
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

BASED ON THE 23.12Z RAP...NOT REALLY EXPECTING THE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DISSIPATE ANY TIME SOON. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
WEAK TO MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA WITH
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE 4 TO 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT
850 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE INTO AND OVER THE WARM FRONT. BASED
ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND THEN ALLOWED FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WHILE SPREADING
THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10 AM. MOST
OF THE VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED TO 2 MILES OR BETTER AND THE
INCOMING RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO CLEAN THE ATMOSPHERE UP A LITTLE
BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 231238
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 231238
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 231238
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 231238
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
738 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ITS PRECIPITATION...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD IT. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SPLIT AS
THE 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BREAKS APART AND ONE PART
GOES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER
PIECE MOVES TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO EXPECT THE AREA WHICH
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO DISSPATE. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS THAT
JET VEERS THROUGH THAT AREA. THERE MAY BE A REMNANT MCV THAT
KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KLSE WILL KEEP THE IFR STRATUS DECK THROUGH 23.13Z...AND THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY RISE BECOMING MVFR BY 23.15Z AND VFR BY 23.19Z. WITH
THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART BEFORE REACHING
KLSE WENT DRY FOR NOW.

THE DENSE FOG AT KRST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO A IFR/MVFR DECK BY
23.15Z...AND THEN THE CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH 24.00Z. IT DOES NOT LOOK THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
BREAK UP PRIOR TO REACHING KRST...SO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS
BETWEEN 23.17Z AND 23.19Z.

VFR CONTIONS ARE CONDITIONS ARE EXEPCTED AT BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING...AND THEN THE MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER
LOOKING AT THE WIND IN THE SOUNDINGS NOT BUYING INTO THIS...SO
JUST KEPT THINGS VFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 230943
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATED
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI. OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO AREA LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT THE THICK FOG IS WIDESPREAD...WITH A LOT
OF 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
10 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELATED THREATS. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT. WILL MONITOR AND EXPAND ADV IF
NECESSARY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS THICK AS IT
CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG DOES NOT
DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON THE 1/4SM FOG AND
UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE.......RIECK
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 230943
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATED
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...MOSTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI. OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO AREA LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT THE THICK FOG IS WIDESPREAD...WITH A LOT
OF 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
10 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELATED THREATS. POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE WIDESPREAD AT THE MOMENT. WILL MONITOR AND EXPAND ADV IF
NECESSARY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS THICK AS IT
CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG DOES NOT
DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON THE 1/4SM FOG AND
UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE.......RIECK
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 230916
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL CONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 230916
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
416 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

AMPLIFICATION PHASE OF UPR PATTERN WL SOON PEAK...WITH DEEP TROF
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND A STG RIDGE FM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH NWRN QUEBEC. FCST AREA WL INITIALLY BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE SHARP RIDGE AXIS. BUT SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD STARTING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WL RESULT IN FCST AREA COMING UNDER
INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY STG SWLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPLIFY LATER IN THE
WEEK...LEAVING A BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BAND OF WESTERLIES
ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD THEN TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE
AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR
RIDGE DOMINATES...SO THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WL BE
LIMITED. BUT VERY MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH WK SHEAR WL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION FROM CONVECTION...AND INTENSE
DOWNPOURS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SO MORE
WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...AOA NORMAL AMNTS SEEM LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

FOG WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
VSBYS AT MOST LOCATIONS WERE NOT AS LOW AS YDA. THE ONLY AREA
WHERE VSBYS SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL WAS NEAR THE LAKE.
PLAN TO CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS/S UNLESS CONDITIONS WORSEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PCPN CHCS AGAIN TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST. QUITE A FEW SHRA
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. A SML CLUSTER OF TSRA BROUGHT TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO THE FLD AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO BORDER AREAS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. THE SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED...BUT WITH WK
ISENT UPGLIDE CONTG AT LOW-LEVELS...CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHINNG
REFORMING. LIKE YDA...PLAN TO CARRY LOW POPS BUT MENTION ISOLD
SHRA THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TSRA IN THE AFTN. THE SW PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC FOR PCPN LATE THIS AFTN
AS WK SHRTWV AND POSSIBLE SOME REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT PLAINS
CONVECTION COULD REACH THAT AREA. OTHER THAN A SLGT CHC OF TSRA
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA LATE...STUCK WITH DRY FCST FOR
SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH WARMING IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER
TO PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE CAP.

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMP FCST AS WELL. GENERALLY WENT AOA
GUIDANCE VALUES TDA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG/ST WL
DISSIPATE AND AT LEAST SOME SUN WL OCCUR THIS AFTN. ALSO THINK
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO COOL BECAUSE MANY OF THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING
TOO MUCH PCPN/CLOUD COVER. IF CLDS DON/T DECR AS EXPECTED...THE
FCST MAX TEMPS WL END UP TOO HIGH. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND
PROBABLY EVEN FEWER CLDS SUPPORTED GOING AOA GUIDANCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MINS FOR TNGT ALSO SEEMED A BIT COOL CONSIDERING
LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND CURRENT TEMPS.

PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AGAIN TNGT...BUT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIND IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO END UP WITH A ST LAYER
THAN DENSE FOG.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN FLOW ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS WITH AN
INITIAL HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED FLOW THRU TUE AND THEN A LESS AMPLIFIED
FLOW THRU LATE NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PLAYERS AT THE ONSET OF THE
FCST TO BE A LARGE UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND
A BROAD UPR TROF FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TO CA. WARM/MUGGY/UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONT THRU MON BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON MON
GRADUALLY BRINGS COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF A MID-WEEK SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WL BRING MORE PCPN TO
THE AREA.

PCPN CHCS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A CDFNT SUNDAY
NGT. DESPITE THE BETTER FORCING PASSING TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LOW HEADED TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WI WL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD CNTRL WI AFTER MIDNGT. SEVERE RISK LOOKS MINIMAL MAINLY DUE
TO THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SMALL
HAIL...BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH PW
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.O INCHES.

THE MOVEMENT OF THIS CDFNT CONTS TO BE A PROBLEM HEADED INTO MON
AS THE LARGE UPR RDG ANCHORED FROM TX TO NEW ENGLAND...ESSENTIALLY
ACTS AS ROADBLOCK. THE MDLS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH TO TAKE THE FNT BEFORE PULLING UP STNRY. IF THE CDFNT BEGINS
TO STALL ACROSS CNTRL WI...THIS COULD SET-UP A FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS. IF THE CDFNT
CAN CONT TO SAG SOUTH THRU THE DAY...NRN WI COULD ACTUALLY SEE
PCPN END MON AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF THE MDLS FAVOR THE LATTER
SOLUTION...THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHER POP VALUES OVER E-CNTRL WI AND
TAPERED POPS OFF TO ONLY SLGT CHC NORTH. MON SHOULD ALSO BE THE
LAST OF THE VERY WARM/HUMID DAYS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 80-85
DEG RANGE.

UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THIS CDFNT CAN SAG INTO SRN WI (OR EVEN
EXTREME NRN IL) BEFORE STALLING...THIS WOULD LEAVE NE WI WITH NO
DISCERNABLE SURFACE OF UPR LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL PCPN. IF ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE WL RELOAD OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. JUST
NOT CONFIDENT ENUF YET TO PULL THE SLGT CHC POPS JUST YET...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FCST AREA TO BE DRY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE (AND PERHAPS LIFT A TAD NORTH) ON TUE
AS THE UPR TROF MOVES THRU THE ROCKIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WL NOT GET OVERLY CUTE WITH THE
TIMING YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SHWRS/TSTMS WOULD BE AN
AFTERNOON EVENT FOR NE WI ON TUE. MAX TEMPS COULD HAVE QUITE A
RANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY TO RESIDE AND HOW FAST THE
PCPN ARRIVES. READINGS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGS FAR N-CNTRL
WI TO THE LWR 80S CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SHOW AS
FAR AS PCPN GOES AS THE UPR TROF SHIFTS EAST...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. EXACTLY WHERE THE QUASI-STNRY FNT TO RESIDE
WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT/LOCATION OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SUFFICIENT FORCING/LIFT/MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT...SO THIS SITUATION
WL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AS MODEST UPR RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK...
THE FLOW OVER WI TO TURN W-NW WITH WEAK HI PRES AT THE SURFACE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPR FLOW TO USHER
COOLER/LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE FCST AREA WITH MAX TEMPS BOTH THU
AND FRI AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE IF THE OLD BOUNDARY
DECIDES TO MAKE A RETURN VISIT...OR AT LEAST GET CLOSE ENUF TO
BRING THE PCPN THREAT BACK INTO THE FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL CONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KMKX 230838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-059-
     060-065-066-071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-059-
     060-065-066-071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-059-
     060-065-066-071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER MOTION AT 700 MB. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A CAP ON THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO THE 2000
JOULES/KG OF ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG WITH THE UPWARD
MOTION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE STORMS
COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MOIST AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN CAUSING DENSE
FOG AND STRATUS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING
THE LAKE. THE LIGHT EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...SO MORE FOG
AND STRATUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. FOR THE MOST PART THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S...ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS...LIKE THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY COULD APPROACH 100.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS TAKING SURFACE LOW FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO MANITOBA CANADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO OCCUR
OVER THE AREA...WITH GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CAP THAN THE GFS. THUS...NAM/CANADIAN ARE DRY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT
QPF ON GFS/ECMWF BY 00Z MONDAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY GIVEN LACK OF DECENT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...SO
KEPT LOWER END POPS THERE. MODELS THEN DIFFER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT OVER THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS KEEPS STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AND
ECMWF NEAR OR OVER THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN TO THE SOUTH. LOW
LEVEL JET TRIES TO POINT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HERE AS WELL BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

FOR NOW...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES DURING THE SUNDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEN ON
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS...WITH SOME HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND...WITH COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING
THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA WITH ONSHORE WINDS. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
SUGGEST HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE
SUNDAY...WITH 95 TO 99 ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT THE HEAT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY. STILL...A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF TRYING TO SHOW QPF OVER THE REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS
TAKING SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GOOD MEAN
LAYER/ELEVATED CAPES WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 40 MILES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. HOWEVER SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES/STRATUS MAY PERSIST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
LIGHT EAST WINDS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS. THE MOIST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME FOG IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-059-
     060-065-066-071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 230833
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS THICK AS IT
CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG DOES NOT
DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON THE 1/4SM FOG AND
UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 230833
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SFC BOUNDARY LIES...MORE OR LESS...WEST EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA INTO
CENTRAL ILL EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD HELP GIVE
THIS BOUNDARY A SHOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS IN
THE MESO MODELS THAT AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEB WOULD TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK TODAY...AND COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOP AS IT AND THE BOUNDARY SLIDE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND...AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 850 MB SREF TEMP ANOMALIES
AROUND +1.5 FOR SUNDAY WHILE 950 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO 26-
28 C. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD IN
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
100 FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
LIKELY LINGERING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OVER THE
REGION. RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH...AND WORK ON THIS BOUNDARY MON-TUE. THIS NEXT TROUGH THEN
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU...CONTINUING TO WORK ON THAT SFC BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO
PUSHING IT EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH PLACEMENT...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...BUT THE TRENDS ARE SIMILAR AND ALL
POINT TO SEVERAL DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES.

NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT FAIRLY PERSISTENT FETCH OF 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 4 KFT WHILE PWS RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. SO...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE LIKELY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THE STRONGER ONES.

AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...AFTERNOON SBCAPES PROGGED FROM 2000-3000
J/KG PER THE GFS INTO WED...MOSTLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING PERSISTING...AND 700
MB TEMPS AROUND 10 C...THERE WILL BE A CAP TO DEAL WITH...AND SOME
OF THIS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE REALIZED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS TOO. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DISPLACED FROM THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP...SO SOME ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS COULD BE SUPPORTED. OVERALL...NOT SURE THERE IS A TIME
PERIOD THAT STANDS OUT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.
THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SEVERE TO MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS...PERHAPS MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. MUCH DEPENDS ON
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE INTERACTION AND TIME OF DAY. LOOK FOR UPDATES IN
THE HWO FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON THE DAY TO DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS THICK AS IT
CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG DOES NOT
DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON THE 1/4SM FOG AND
UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 230447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LINGERING AROUND AN ARCHING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WITH A LIGHT WIND FIELD IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING BUT ALSO VERY PULSEY. THE SUITE OF MESO-
MODELS HAS HAD A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL JET FORCING AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
THE RIDGING IS IN PLACE. GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE 23.00Z
HRRR IS SHOWING THE BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IN AROUND LATE MORNING IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TO SEE WHETHER ANY BETTER TIMING CAN BE GIVEN ON THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS WITH CLOUD COVER BLOWING OFF OF EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN IOWA TONIGHT. WHILE IR TRENDS SHOW THE
CLOUD TOPS WARMING...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
FOR SATURATION AND THE FOG TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AROUND NOW...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH
THE EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS
THICK AS IT CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT
THE FOG DOES NOT DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON
THE 1/4SM FOG AND UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE
FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT
COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 230447
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LINGERING AROUND AN ARCHING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WITH A LIGHT WIND FIELD IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING BUT ALSO VERY PULSEY. THE SUITE OF MESO-
MODELS HAS HAD A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL JET FORCING AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
THE RIDGING IS IN PLACE. GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE 23.00Z
HRRR IS SHOWING THE BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IN AROUND LATE MORNING IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TO SEE WHETHER ANY BETTER TIMING CAN BE GIVEN ON THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS WITH CLOUD COVER BLOWING OFF OF EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN IOWA TONIGHT. WHILE IR TRENDS SHOW THE
CLOUD TOPS WARMING...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
FOR SATURATION AND THE FOG TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AROUND NOW...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AND HOW MUCH
THE EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FOG BACK FROM
FORMING. THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...BUT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW...SO AM EXPECTING THAT THE FOG WILL STILL FORM...JUST
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SHOULD THE CLOUD COVER REMAIN AS
THICK AS IT CURRENTLY IS...THEN THERE MAY BE MORE CONCERNS THAT
THE FOG DOES NOT DEVELOP. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...BACKED OFF ON
THE 1/4SM FOG AND UPPED CONDITIONS A BIT. BEYOND THE
FOG...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT
COULD COME THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LEAD IMPULSE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 230339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
JET STREAK HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO OBSERVING RATHER
BUBBLY LOOKING CU ALONG A COLD FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH CONVERGENCE LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND THE
ONLY RETURNS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/COOL FRONT WITH ML CAPES
GROWING TO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...AND CIN FALLING RAPIDLY. THE
NAM CREATES CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INCLUDED A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME LATCHING ON TO THAT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE GEM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  BUT CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY CASE.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GEM SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING AND MORPHING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THINK ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.  LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS MAY ALSO ADVECT AREAS OF MARINE FOG INLAND INTO THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
A DEEP PAC NW TROUGH.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REORGANIZE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL BACK OFF
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING.  CHANCES IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT AM SKEPTICAL
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS ALOFT.  SO WILL MATCH WITH OTHER OFFICES BUT
BRING UP CONCERN TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED TO THE
EAST A TAD WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE AREA. SOME PROGS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE AND DECREASED THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTION MENTION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT BY NOON THE H850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
TROUGH OR WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MOST MODEL RUNS DIMINISH THE PCPN
AS IT WORKS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER MINNESOTA NEAR THE
SURFACE AND 850 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOCUSES THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.  THE GFS WAS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO A
MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER JET REGION PASSING THROUGH
TOWARD MID WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND H850 FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER JET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STICKY AIR MASS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MOIST AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z OR 14Z SATURDAY THOUGH
CEILINGS COULD STAY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KGRB 230339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
JET STREAK HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO OBSERVING RATHER
BUBBLY LOOKING CU ALONG A COLD FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH CONVERGENCE LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND THE
ONLY RETURNS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/COOL FRONT WITH ML CAPES
GROWING TO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...AND CIN FALLING RAPIDLY. THE
NAM CREATES CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INCLUDED A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME LATCHING ON TO THAT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE GEM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  BUT CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY CASE.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GEM SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING AND MORPHING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THINK ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.  LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS MAY ALSO ADVECT AREAS OF MARINE FOG INLAND INTO THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
A DEEP PAC NW TROUGH.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REORGANIZE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL BACK OFF
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING.  CHANCES IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT AM SKEPTICAL
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS ALOFT.  SO WILL MATCH WITH OTHER OFFICES BUT
BRING UP CONCERN TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED TO THE
EAST A TAD WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE AREA. SOME PROGS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE AND DECREASED THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTION MENTION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT BY NOON THE H850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
TROUGH OR WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MOST MODEL RUNS DIMINISH THE PCPN
AS IT WORKS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER MINNESOTA NEAR THE
SURFACE AND 850 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOCUSES THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.  THE GFS WAS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO A
MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER JET REGION PASSING THROUGH
TOWARD MID WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND H850 FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER JET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STICKY AIR MASS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MOIST AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z OR 14Z SATURDAY THOUGH
CEILINGS COULD STAY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM






000
FXUS63 KMKX 230333 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AS COOL...MOIST
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BROUGHT DENSE FOG INTO THOSE COUNTIES.
MKE HAS JUST NOW REPORTED 1/4 MILE SFC VSBY. WILL MONITOR INLAND
COUNTIES FOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. EXPECT FOG TO FORM JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BUT LOCATION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A QUESTION.
SREF 60-75 PCT OF VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE ALONG THE LAKE AND THEN PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE NAM HAS
LOWEST VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 AND ALONG THE LAKE.

STALLED LAKE BREEZE/WIND SHIFT LINE IS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED PO-
UP SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH
HI-RES RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOKING MORE CERTAIN IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR AT EASTERN SITES. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 12Z TO MVFR AROUND 15Z TO 16Z. SHOWER CHANCES THE REST OF
TONIGHT ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KMSN...BUT STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KMSN TAF.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT MODELS
KEEP PCPN MAINLY OVER THE SW FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY KMSN THE
ONLY TAF SITE BEING REACHED BY CURRENT MODEL QPF FIELDS. WILL
AWAIT COMPLETE 00Z DATA TO COME IN BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE...BUT RIGHT
NOW ONLY PLAN TO MENTION VCNTY THUNDER AT KMSN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM SATURDAY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS WHERE MODELS ARE FOCUSING CONVECTION
WITHIN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AGAIN.
CURRENT SKY COVER...WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD BETTER WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.  MUCH STRONGER FORCING TO
THE WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO ERN MN AND FAR WRN WI.  WEAK WARM MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
DOES SKIM SRN WI OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING
INTO THE AREA...NOT ENOUGH CAPING ALOFT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE SMALL
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUCCUMB TO SRN EXTENSION OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR BULK OF THIS PERIOD
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER DESPITE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CAPING
AND LINGERING INSTABILITY.

SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SWD EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL JET AFFECT
SRN WI LATE SUN NGT AND MON.  DESPITE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST...PREFER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY ECMWF/GEM W.R.T. SFC FRONT.  HENCE EXPC WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS SRN WI ON MON.  WITH STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WL CONTINUE
MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT
FOR NOW DUE TO BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MORE MID-CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LEAN MORE ON BLEND OF ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE
FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
CARRYING SFC FRONT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL CARRY LOW POPS IN FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS BUT IF TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY MON NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT BEGINNING
TO WAVER BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS.  SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
STRONGER NORTH WINDS NUDGE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH.  HENCE WL NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN MOST PERIODS WITH DRYING
TREND BEGINNING THU INTO THU NGT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS
HUMIDITY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS LED TO CONTINUED DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT FOR NOW. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE DENSE FOG WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING...SO ANOTHER ADVISORY
MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 230333 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AS COOL...MOIST
FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BROUGHT DENSE FOG INTO THOSE COUNTIES.
MKE HAS JUST NOW REPORTED 1/4 MILE SFC VSBY. WILL MONITOR INLAND
COUNTIES FOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. EXPECT FOG TO FORM JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE BUT LOCATION OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A QUESTION.
SREF 60-75 PCT OF VSBY LESS THAN 1 MILE ALONG THE LAKE AND THEN PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES CWA AFTER 06Z...WHILE NAM HAS
LOWEST VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 AND ALONG THE LAKE.

STALLED LAKE BREEZE/WIND SHIFT LINE IS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED PO-
UP SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH
HI-RES RAPID UPDATE MODELS SHOWING PCPN CHANCES DIMINISHING WITH
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AS WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOKING MORE CERTAIN IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIFR AT EASTERN SITES. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 12Z TO MVFR AROUND 15Z TO 16Z. SHOWER CHANCES THE REST OF
TONIGHT ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KMSN...BUT STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE KMSN TAF.

CHANCES FOR THUNDER INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT...BUT MODELS
KEEP PCPN MAINLY OVER THE SW FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY KMSN THE
ONLY TAF SITE BEING REACHED BY CURRENT MODEL QPF FIELDS. WILL
AWAIT COMPLETE 00Z DATA TO COME IN BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE...BUT RIGHT
NOW ONLY PLAN TO MENTION VCNTY THUNDER AT KMSN.

&&

.MARINE...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL
10 AM SATURDAY FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VSBYS OF 1 MILE OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS WHERE MODELS ARE FOCUSING CONVECTION
WITHIN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AGAIN.
CURRENT SKY COVER...WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD BETTER WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.  MUCH STRONGER FORCING TO
THE WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO ERN MN AND FAR WRN WI.  WEAK WARM MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
DOES SKIM SRN WI OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING
INTO THE AREA...NOT ENOUGH CAPING ALOFT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE SMALL
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUCCUMB TO SRN EXTENSION OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR BULK OF THIS PERIOD
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER DESPITE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CAPING
AND LINGERING INSTABILITY.

SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SWD EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL JET AFFECT
SRN WI LATE SUN NGT AND MON.  DESPITE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST...PREFER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY ECMWF/GEM W.R.T. SFC FRONT.  HENCE EXPC WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS SRN WI ON MON.  WITH STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WL CONTINUE
MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT
FOR NOW DUE TO BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MORE MID-CLOUDS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LEAN MORE ON BLEND OF ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE
FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
CARRYING SFC FRONT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL CARRY LOW POPS IN FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS BUT IF TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY MON NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT BEGINNING
TO WAVER BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS.  SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
STRONGER NORTH WINDS NUDGE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH.  HENCE WL NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN MOST PERIODS WITH DRYING
TREND BEGINNING THU INTO THU NGT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS
HUMIDITY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS LED TO CONTINUED DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT FOR NOW. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE DENSE FOG WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING...SO ANOTHER ADVISORY
MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 230222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LINGERING AROUND AN ARCHING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WITH A LIGHT WIND FIELD IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING BUT ALSO VERY PULSEY. THE SUITE OF MESO-
MODELS HAS HAD A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL JET FORCING AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
THE RIDGING IS IN PLACE. GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE 23.00Z
HRRR IS SHOWING THE BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IN AROUND LATE MORNING IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TO SEE WHETHER ANY BETTER TIMING CAN BE GIVEN ON THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS WITH CLOUD COVER BLOWING OFF OF EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN IOWA TONIGHT. WHILE IR TRENDS SHOW THE
CLOUD TOPS WARMING...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
FOR SATURATION AND THE FOG TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AROUND NOW...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 230222
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LINGERING AROUND AN ARCHING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WITH A LIGHT WIND FIELD IN
PLACE FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING BUT ALSO VERY PULSEY. THE SUITE OF MESO-
MODELS HAS HAD A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL JET FORCING AND MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA WHERE
THE RIDGING IS IN PLACE. GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THE 23.00Z
HRRR IS SHOWING THE BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IN AROUND LATE MORNING IN NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TO SEE WHETHER ANY BETTER TIMING CAN BE GIVEN ON THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE SETUP FOR DENSE FOG IS PRETTY GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS DEEP
LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS WITH CLOUD COVER BLOWING OFF OF EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN IOWA TONIGHT. WHILE IR TRENDS SHOW THE
CLOUD TOPS WARMING...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AROUND
TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWING
FOR SATURATION AND THE FOG TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR. NO PLANS TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS CLOUD COVER AROUND NOW...BUT THE
MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 222334
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
634 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
JET STREAK HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO OBSERVING RATHER
BUBBLY LOOKING CU ALONG A COLD FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH CONVERGENCE LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND THE
ONLY RETURNS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/COOL FRONT WITH ML CAPES
GROWING TO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...AND CIN FALLING RAPIDLY. THE
NAM CREATES CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INCLUDED A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME LATCHING ON TO THAT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE GEM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  BUT CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY CASE.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GEM SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING AND MORPHING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THINK ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.  LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS MAY ALSO ADVECT AREAS OF MARINE FOG INLAND INTO THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
A DEEP PAC NW TROUGH.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REORGANIZE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL BACK OFF
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING.  CHANCES IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT AM SKEPTICAL
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS ALOFT.  SO WILL MATCH WITH OTHER OFFICES BUT
BRING UP CONCERN TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED TO THE
EAST A TAD WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE AREA. SOME PROGS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE AND DECREASED THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTION MENTION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT BY NOON THE H850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
TROUGH OR WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MOST MODEL RUNS DIMINISH THE PCPN
AS IT WORKS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER MINNESOTA NEAR THE
SURFACE AND 850 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOCUSES THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.  THE GFS WAS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO A
MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER JET REGION PASSING THROUGH
TOWARD MID WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND H850 FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER JET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STICKY AIR MASS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MOIST AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG TO
FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST PLACES WILL HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
13Z OR 14Z SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM







000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 222330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FAIRLY LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10KTS
IN THE LOWEST 15KFT...SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A HUMID SURFACE AIR
MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY DROP
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THOSE TRENDS. REGARDLESS...SETUP
LOOKS IDEAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG...PARTICULARLY IF SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN ANY
CONVECTION TO THE TAFS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS WHERE MODELS ARE FOCUSING CONVECTION
WITHIN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE AGAIN.
CURRENT SKY COVER...WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD BETTER WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...SO EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.  MUCH STRONGER FORCING TO
THE WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WILL ARC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO ERN MN AND FAR WRN WI.  WEAK WARM MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
DOES SKIM SRN WI OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING
INTO THE AREA...NOT ENOUGH CAPING ALOFT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE SMALL
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVER AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUCCUMB TO SRN EXTENSION OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA AREA LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR BULK OF THIS PERIOD
DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER DESPITE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CAPING
AND LINGERING INSTABILITY.

SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND SWD EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL JET AFFECT
SRN WI LATE SUN NGT AND MON.  DESPITE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST...PREFER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
OFFERED BY ECMWF/GEM W.R.T. SFC FRONT.  HENCE EXPC WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS SRN WI ON MON.  WITH STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WL CONTINUE
MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HELD OFF FROM INCLUDING IT
FOR NOW DUE TO BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MORE MID-CLOUDS.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL LEAN MORE ON BLEND OF ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE
FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
CARRYING SFC FRONT FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL CARRY LOW POPS IN FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS BUT IF TREND CONTINUES...MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE IN LATER
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY MON NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT BEGINNING
TO WAVER BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS.  SFC FRONT THEN REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
STRONGER NORTH WINDS NUDGE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH.  HENCE WL NEED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN MOST PERIODS WITH DRYING
TREND BEGINNING THU INTO THU NGT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND SLIGHTLY LESS
HUMIDITY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS LED TO CONTINUED DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SO
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT FOR NOW. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE DENSE FOG WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING...SO ANOTHER ADVISORY
MAY BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVY LMZ643-644 UNTIL 15Z/23.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KARX 222008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS...AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB AND LITTLE FOR WINDS IN
THE SFC-850MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA QUITE
MOIST INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MEAN
SCT TO BKN/OVC STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT INTO SAT.

BR/FG WAS SLOW TO LIFT/BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
STILL PERSISTING AS OF 17Z. LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS AGAIN...WITH TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS ON THE LOWER
SIDE GOING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
DIURNAL COOLING...MORE MVFR/IFR BR/FG EXPECTED AGAIN ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE 08-14Z TIME-FRAME. PREVIOUS
TAF CYCLE ALREADY ADDED IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG TO BOTH KRST/KLSE IN THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY BR/FG WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AND LINGERED
MVFR VSBYS THRU THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 222008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE. SURFACE DEW POINTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...PRETTY STICKY. SURFACE MAP
DEPICTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WITH A BOUNDARY LAID UP FROM THE LOW THROUGH LA CROSSE
INTO NORTHEAST IA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE
OVER WESTERN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KS INTO
NORTHERN MO AND CENTRAL IL.

FOR TONIGHT...MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON IT. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LACKING. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DRIVE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT AT
THIS POINT WHETHER REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
HEADLINE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL START MAKING A
NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST OF THE
AREA INTO WESTERN IA/MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL STILL BE
WATCHING FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE NAM IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED MUCAPE IN THE 2500-
4000J/KG RANGE. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR RATHER WEAK IN THE 10-20 KT
RANGE...SO EXPECTING PULSE-TYPE NATURE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO GET PULLED NORTH/WESTWARD OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES OUT OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...GETTING INCREASINGLY STEAMY GOING INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S. PLAN ON HEAT INDICES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY WITH THE AREA ENTRENCHED IN
STRONGLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. NAM VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING 26-30C
925MB AIR GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE HOTTEST
AXIS OF THIS AIR ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLAN ON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO
THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE 1.5-2 INCH
RANGE ALONG WITH UPPER JET DYNAMICS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COVERAGE. SO
FAR...LOOKING LIKE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ON
MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE SOME DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS...AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB AND LITTLE FOR WINDS IN
THE SFC-850MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA QUITE
MOIST INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MEAN
SCT TO BKN/OVC STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT INTO SAT.

BR/FG WAS SLOW TO LIFT/BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
STILL PERSISTING AS OF 17Z. LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS AGAIN...WITH TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS ON THE LOWER
SIDE GOING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
DIURNAL COOLING...MORE MVFR/IFR BR/FG EXPECTED AGAIN ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE 08-14Z TIME-FRAME. PREVIOUS
TAF CYCLE ALREADY ADDED IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG TO BOTH KRST/KLSE IN THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY BR/FG WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AND LINGERED
MVFR VSBYS THRU THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 221915
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
JET STREAK HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO OBSERVING RATHER
BUBBLY LOOKING CU ALONG A COLD FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH CONVERGENCE LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND THE
ONLY RETURNS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/COOL FRONT WITH ML CAPES
GROWING TO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...AND CIN FALLING RAPIDLY. THE
NAM CREATES CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INCLUDED A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME LATCHING ON TO THAT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE GEM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  BUT CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY CASE.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GEM SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING AND MORPHING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THINK ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.  LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS MAY ALSO ADVECT AREAS OF MARINE FOG INLAND INTO THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
A DEEP PAC NW TROUGH.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REORGANIZE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL BACK OFF
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING.  CHANCES IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT AM SKEPTICAL
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS ALOFT.  SO WILL MATCH WITH OTHER OFFICES BUT
BRING UP CONCERN TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED TO THE
EAST A TAD WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE AREA. SOME PROGS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE AND DECREASED THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTION MENTION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT BY NOON THE H850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
TROUGH OR WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MOST MODEL RUNS DIMINISH THE PCPN
AS IT WORKS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER MINNESOTA NEAR THE
SURFACE AND 850 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOCUSES THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.  THE GFS WAS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO A
MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER JET REGION PASSING THROUGH
TOWARD MID WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND H850 FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER JET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STICKY AIR MASS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A WARM AND VERY MOIST LATE SUMMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221915
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
JET STREAK HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...CONVERGENCE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO OBSERVING RATHER
BUBBLY LOOKING CU ALONG A COLD FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THOUGH CONVERGENCE LOOKS QUITE WEAK...AND THE
ONLY RETURNS ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/COOL FRONT WITH ML CAPES
GROWING TO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG...AND CIN FALLING RAPIDLY. THE
NAM CREATES CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INCLUDED A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC
NW WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO RE-ORGANIZE OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND FOG POTENTIAL REMAIN THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME LATCHING ON TO THAT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THE NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE GEM APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  BUT CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY CASE.  BOTH
THE NAM AND GEM SHOW THIS SURFACE LOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING AND MORPHING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOO.  THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THINK ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW.  LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS MAY ALSO ADVECT AREAS OF MARINE FOG INLAND INTO THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.  WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
A DEEP PAC NW TROUGH.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REORGANIZE AND A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AND WILL BACK OFF
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE MORNING.  CHANCES IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT AM SKEPTICAL
SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS ALOFT.  SO WILL MATCH WITH OTHER OFFICES BUT
BRING UP CONCERN TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS NUDGED TO THE
EAST A TAD WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
NORTH OVER THE AREA. SOME PROGS GENERATE SOME CONVECTION WITH THIS
FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE AND DECREASED THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTION MENTION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT BY NOON THE H850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL TEND TO BE FOCUSED TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TOWARD THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG A
TROUGH OR WEAKENING COLD FRONT. MOST MODEL RUNS DIMINISH THE PCPN
AS IT WORKS INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE EAST THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ESPECIALLY OVER MINNESOTA NEAR THE
SURFACE AND 850 LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD RRQ REGION OF THE UPPER JET FOCUSES THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.  THE GFS WAS THE
ODD MODEL OUT WITH STALLING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUING CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS WITH RESPECT TO A
MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVE WITH RRQ UPPER JET REGION PASSING THROUGH
TOWARD MID WEEK. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF A SOAKING RAIN WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT AND H850 FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER JET.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STICKY AIR MASS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A WARM AND VERY MOIST LATE SUMMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KARX 221732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS...AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB AND LITTLE FOR WINDS IN
THE SFC-850MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA QUITE
MOIST INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MEAN
SCT TO BKN/OVC STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT INTO SAT.

BR/FG WAS SLOW TO LIFT/BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
STILL PERSISTING AS OF 17Z. LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS AGAIN...WITH TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS ON THE LOWER
SIDE GOING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
DIURNAL COOLING...MORE MVFR/IFR BR/FG EXPECTED AGAIN ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE 08-14Z TIME-FRAME. PREVIOUS
TAF CYCLE ALREADY ADDED IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG TO BOTH KRST/KLSE IN THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY BR/FG WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AND LINGERED
MVFR VSBYS THRU THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 221732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT. PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS...AN INVERSION NEAR 900MB AND LITTLE FOR WINDS IN
THE SFC-850MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA QUITE
MOIST INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL MEAN
SCT TO BKN/OVC STRATO-CU CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THRU TONIGHT INTO SAT.

BR/FG WAS SLOW TO LIFT/BURN OFF THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS
STILL PERSISTING AS OF 17Z. LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPS AGAIN...WITH TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS ON THE LOWER
SIDE GOING INTO TONIGHT. WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AND
DIURNAL COOLING...MORE MVFR/IFR BR/FG EXPECTED AGAIN ESPECIALLY
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE 08-14Z TIME-FRAME. PREVIOUS
TAF CYCLE ALREADY ADDED IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG TO BOTH KRST/KLSE IN THIS
TIME FRAME. ANY BR/FG WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AND LINGERED
MVFR VSBYS THRU THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 221707
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A WARM AND VERY MOIST LATE SUMMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC







000
FXUS63 KGRB 221707
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A WARM AND VERY MOIST LATE SUMMER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER FAR N-C WISCONSIN.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC






000
FXUS63 KMKX 221533 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED MOST AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG NEAR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THOUGH...AS DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE
ADVECTS INLAND UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

BEGINNING TO SEE MORE HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER...WITH TEMPS
SHOOTING UP QUICKLY IN THESE SUNNY SPOTS. BASED ON THE DECREASING
CLOUDS AND LATEST MODEL 925 TEMPS...FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SEEM TO BE
RIGHT ABOUT ON TRACK. MAY NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT IN FROM
MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD IF SUNSHINE BECOMES PERSISTENT THERE.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VSBYS AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL PROBABLY LINGER DUE TO THE STRATUS/FOG OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT BASED ON LATEST
WEBCAMS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND FORECAST MODELS. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE EARLIER SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. FARTHER NORTH...THERE IS A
CHANCE THE DENSE FOG WILL LINGER LATER IN THE DAY. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND ADJUST THE ADVISORY AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH THE LOW STRATUS
DECK NOT DISSIPATING UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS DROPPED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED BUT NO RAIN AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER WI
TODAY INTO TNT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TNT. LGT ELY FLOW AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TNT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME QPF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOOD SHOT OF FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN FOCUSES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE AREA.

BEST POPS KEPT FOR SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW POPS IN THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR MASS BECOMING CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. BROUGHT BACK LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT MEAN LAYER CAPES
SATURDAY...WITH GOOD ELEVATED CAPES THEREAFTER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH
SATURDAY...AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN COOLER. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 96 TO 104 DEGREE
RANGE. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING WITH TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. GFS SEEMS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z THIS
AM. IT WILL THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF THE LOW STRATUS.
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 3-5SM MAY PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MI INCLUDING KMKE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER ALL OF SRN WI WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS VERY LOW VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TNT.

MARINE...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z. THE FOG WILL
TRANSITION TO HAZE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS OF
3-5SM. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM TNT BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FOG WILL MAINLY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE OR
EXTEND MORESO OVER THE LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...BOATERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 221147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 22.15Z...AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT THE OFFICE...A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG
FORMED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK EVEN DEEPER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP OF DENSE FOG AFTER 23.10Z.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 221147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 22.15Z...AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT THE OFFICE...A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG
FORMED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK EVEN DEEPER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP OF DENSE FOG AFTER 23.10Z.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 221147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 22.15Z...AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT THE OFFICE...A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG
FORMED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK EVEN DEEPER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP OF DENSE FOG AFTER 23.10Z.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KARX 221147
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LIFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 22.15Z...AND THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS AT THE OFFICE...A STRATUS DECK INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG
FORMED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO
REMAIN 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK EVEN DEEPER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP OF DENSE FOG AFTER 23.10Z.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044-053>055-061.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 220950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST CONT ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...BUT WL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY AGAIN TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018-030-
035-036-040-045-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST CONT ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...BUT WL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY AGAIN TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018-030-
035-036-040-045-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST CONT ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...BUT WL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY AGAIN TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018-030-
035-036-040-045-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN ACRS NOAM CONTG AS SHRTWV
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST WAS DEEPENING THE WRN TROF AND PULLING
IT BACK WWD A BIT. DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING BUILDING NNEWD FM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL EVENTUALLY LINK WITH BLOCKY RIDGE OVER
NWRN QUEBEC. THESE CHGS WL RESULT IN THE FCST AREA BEING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE
WRN TROF WL SHOVE THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE EWD...LEAVING SW
UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR FLOW WL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY LOSE AMPLITUDE AFTER THAT...
RESULTING IN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN CONUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR RIDGE WL KEEP A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
ACRS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT WL RESULT IN ABV
NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...BEFORE READINGS FALL
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.

AMPLE MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE AREA TO FUEL PRECIPITATION. BUT
FORCING WL BE SPARSE EARLY AS THE UPR RIDGE DOMINATES. THEN WHEN
THE PRIMARY SHRTWV EJECTS FM THE WRN TROF...IT WL TRACK PRETTY
FAR W OF THE AREA. SO ESTIMATING PCPN IS A BIT TRICKY. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN TO GET AOA AMNTS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...THOUGH THAT DOESN/T SEEM LIKE AS MUCH OF LOCK AS IT
DID A COUPLE DAYS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOTS OF FCST ISSUES TO SORT OUT THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH
IS FOG. ENDED UP WITH KIND OF A WEIRD PATTERN TO THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT...THAT/S WHERE THE DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING. CENTRAL
WI GOT THE MOST RAIN YDA...RESULTING IN DENSE FOG THERE. THE EAST
DID NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN...AND LGT ELY FLOW WAS LIKELY
KEEPING THE ATM STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO GET FOR ST AND LESS FG.
WEBCAMS AND A CALL THE WINNEBAGO SHERIFF INDICATED THAT THE FOG
WAS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE THAT ELY FLOW WAS BRINGING MOIST
AIR ACRS THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE...THUS ENHANCING
FG PRODUCTION. THINK THIS PATTERN WL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT WL CONT TO MONITOR AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED.

SCT SHRA CONTD ACRS NRN WI. THEY DON/T LOOK LIKE MUCH ON RADAR...
BUT OB SITES BEING AFFECTED INDICATE BRIEF R+ AND UP TO 1/4 INCH
PCPN AMNTS. THOSE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E THIS MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ABOUT AS LOW AS IT CAN GET. SOME OF THAT STEMS FM MISJUDGING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE TSTM COMPLEX YDA MORNING...WHICH REALLY MESSED UP
THE PCPN FCST FOR YDA AFTN AND EVENING. BUT THERE ARE CONFLICTING
INDICATIONS FOR PCPN TDA/TNGT AS WELL. FAVORING NO PCPN...UPR
HEIGHTS WL BE RISING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WL ALSO
TREND MORE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME. BUT ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRETTY MUCH EVERY MODEL PRODUCED SCT PCPN ACRS THE AREA AT
SOME POINT TDA AND/OR TNGT. AND AT LOW-LEVELS...DIFFUSE SFC WV
ACRS MN WL BE SHIFTG SE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN. THAT WL GENERATE
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...UNLESS ST HOLDS ON ALL
DAY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUN...GIVING THE ATM A CHC TO
DESTABLIZE. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS...AND THAT SPC HAS A 5 PCT
CHC OF SVR ACRS THE AREA IN THE SWODY1...WAS JUST NOT COMFORTABLE
GOING TOTALLY DRY. WENT WITH PRETTY LOW POPS...BUT RAN WITH ISOLD
TSRA DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. CERTAINLY COVERAGE WON/T BE
GREAT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY...BUT JUST COULD NOT COMMIT TO
TOTALLY DRY FCST.

SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE WRN TROF WL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPENING
CYCLONE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS SAT. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
REORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND RESUMED ISENT LIFT IN
THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE. SO CHC FOR TSRA WL SPREAD INTO THE SW PART
OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY.

ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...
THOUGH NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF/ECMWF-MOS PRODUCTS SEEMED A BIT TOO
COOL WITH MAXES TDA/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW CONSISTING OF AN UPR RDG FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TO NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPR TROF OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CONUS
TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHCS THRU MON TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE MOVEMENT OF A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST
CHC POPS NECESSARY. MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPR TROF
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN TIER OF STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...THEREBY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER NE WI. TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHAT PERIOD(S) TO PLACE THE HIGHER POPS CONTS TO BE THE
HARDEST PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU TUE BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL.

A BROAD S-SW FLOW TO BE OVER NE WI SAT NGT AS THE AREA TO RESIDE
BETWEEN THE UPR RDG JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE DEEP UPR TROF (NEARLY
CLOSED UPR LOW) SITUATED OVER W-CNTRL CANADA/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRES TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF ERN ND OR WRN MN WITH A
WRMFNT STRETCHED SEWD TOWARD SRN WI. PERSISTENT WAA TO COMBINE
WITH THE WRMFNT TO BRING AT LEAST CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH (1.5-2.0")...THUS ANY SHWR OR TSTM WL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING A VERY WARM/HUMID/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NORTH IN CASE THE WRMFNT
SLOWS DOAN...BUT ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. 8H TEMPS
RISE TO BETWEEN +20 AND +22C WHICH WOULD SEND MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
THE 90 DEG MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WI. THESE TEMPS...WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S...WOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPR 90S. MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

AS THE UPR TROF LIFTS E-NE INTO THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG
SUNDAY NGT...IT WL HELP SEND A CDFNT TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS FNT DRIVING INTO A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE SHWRS/TSTMS TOWARD NE WI AND HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. MDLS DIFFER
AS TO HOW FAST TO BRING THIS CDFNT THRU THE REST OF WI ON MON. THE
UPR RDG TO STILL RESIDE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...
THUS PROVIDING A ROADBLOCK AND ONE WOULD FIGURE...A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF MON FOR THE FNT JUST TO CLEAR NE WI.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST FOR MON...
ALTHO N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI COULD SEE THE PCPN THREAT DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON IF THE FNT CAN MOVE FAR ENUF. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
WITH THICKER CLOUDS/PCPN AROUND...BUT STILL REMAIN QUITE MUGGY.

THIS CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY PULL UP STNRY MON NGT AS IT RUNS INTO THE
UPR RDG. EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS WL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF POPS
OVER THE REGION. THE FNT COULD STALL ANYWHERE FROM CNTRL WI TO NRN
IL...THUS MAKING THE FCST FOR MON NGT INTO TUE QUITE CHALLENGING.
HAVE SETTLED WITH THE FNT STALLING OVER SRN WI...CLOSEST TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHC POP FOR CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI. FOR TUE...THE MAIN UPR TROF TO BE MOVING INTO THE NRN/
CNTRL PLAINS WHICH MAY HELP TO LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD CONT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ACROSS NE WI.

THE UPR TROF IS FCST TO SWEEP EAST AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WED. A CDFNT WL PRECEDE THE UPR TROF INTO WI TUE NGT AND SET OFF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...ENUF MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. PCPN CHCS WOULD CARRY OVER INTO WED AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK HI PRES MOVES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR NEXT THU AND BRING SUNSHINE BACK TO THE REGION. A COOLER/
LESS HUMID AIR MASS TO ARRIVE BY THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS AT OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
WIDESPREAD FG/ST CONT ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY...BUT WL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY AGAIN TNGT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018-030-
035-036-040-045-050.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KMKX 220845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH THE LOW STRATUS
DECK NOT DISSIPATING UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS DROPPED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED BUT NO RAIN AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER WI
TODAY INTO TNT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TNT. LGT ELY FLOW AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TNT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME QPF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOOD SHOT OF FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN FOCUSES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE AREA.

BEST POPS KEPT FOR SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW POPS IN THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR MASS BECOMING CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. BROUGHT BACK LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT MEAN LAYER CAPES
SATURDAY...WITH GOOD ELEVATED CAPES THEREAFTER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH
SATURDAY...AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN COOLER. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 96 TO 104 DEGREE
RANGE. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING WITH TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. GFS SEEMS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z THIS
AM. IT WILL THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF THE LOW STRATUS.
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 3-5SM MAY PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MI INCLUDING KMKE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER ALL OF SRN WI WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS VERY LOW VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z. THE FOG WILL
TRANSITION TO HAZE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS OF
3-5SM. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM TNT BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FOG WILL MAINLY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE OR
EXTEND MORESO OVER THE LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...BOATERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 220845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH THE LOW STRATUS
DECK NOT DISSIPATING UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS DROPPED
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE A WARM AND VERY HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED BUT NO RAIN AS THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER WI
TODAY INTO TNT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TNT. LGT ELY FLOW AND VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TNT.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HELP WARM FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME QPF IS SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOOD SHOT OF FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN FOCUSES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA REMAINING MAINLY WEST
OF THE AREA.

BEST POPS KEPT FOR SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOW POPS IN THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY FORECAST SUNDAY...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR MASS BECOMING CAPPED WITH VERY WARM AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. BROUGHT BACK LOW POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT MEAN LAYER CAPES
SATURDAY...WITH GOOD ELEVATED CAPES THEREAFTER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH
SATURDAY...AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN ARE IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. 925
MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN COOLER. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 96 TO 104 DEGREE
RANGE. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY IN LATER
FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING WITH TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. GFS SEEMS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z THIS
AM. IT WILL THEN TAKE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF THE LOW STRATUS.
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH 3-5SM MAY PREVAIL NEAR LAKE MI INCLUDING KMKE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM DURING THE MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER ALL OF SRN WI WITH AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. THUS VERY LOW VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN FOR TNT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z. THE FOG WILL
TRANSITION TO HAZE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH VSBYS OF
3-5SM. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM TNT BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THE FOG WILL MAINLY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE OR
EXTEND MORESO OVER THE LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...BOATERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 220747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG TO MIX OUT.
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ALONG
THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...THE FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 220747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG TO MIX OUT.
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ALONG
THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...THE FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 220747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG TO MIX OUT.
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ALONG
THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...THE FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 220747
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS MN AND NORTHERN/EASTERN WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SAGGING IT SOUTH. MAY
NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI...JUST NORTH OF I-90. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN WI. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WANES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND EXPECT A
DECREASE IN THE ALREADY SPOTTY ACTIVITY AROUND THE WARM FRONT A
RESULT.

TO THE SOUTH...A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WAS RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN IA
INTO CENTRAL ILL. MOISTURE TRANSPORT HELPING TO FEED SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION...AND THIS FOCUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL AID THE STORM PRODUCTION TO THE
SOUTH...ALONG THAT FRONT. NOT A LOT OF REASON FOR IT TO MOVE
NORTH...SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...A BIT OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WORK ON THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY...BUT UNLESS IT GETS AN UNEXPECTED PUSH
NORTH...THESE CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

THAT SAID...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME MESO MODELS HINT THAT THE FRONT COULD INCH A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PUT SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THIS AREA FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WEST-EAST SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...PER LATEST GFS/NAM/EC...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SLOPING
FRONTOGENETIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE FRONT. CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE WORKING IN ALREADY BY MORNING. MODELS
ARE STEADFAST IN PUSHING THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN/NORTHERN WI
BY 00Z SUN. HOWEVER...IF PCPN IS WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...RAIN
COOLED AIR COULD SLOW THIS ADVANCEMENT DOWN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

A SHOT OF SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 28 C. SREF 850 MB ANOMALIES HOVER
AROUND +1. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 FOR A LARGE CHUNK
OF THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH 100+ DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LAY UP WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO A LOW LEVEL CAP...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AROUND THE FRONT FOR A PCPN RISK.
HIGHER THREAT FOR STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WITH TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA TUE. THIS COULD BE A REMNANT OF THE FRONT FROM MONDAY. THE
GFS DEVELOPS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PWS NEAR 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH JUST UNDER 4 KFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT...BUT OVERALL THEY AGREE THAT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE REGION IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. WILL LEAN
ON CONSENSUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS
STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG TO MIX OUT.
THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED ALONG
THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS OUT...THE FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KARX 220449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
IS STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD
FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG
TO MIX OUT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS
OUT...THE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 220449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
IS STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD
FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG
TO MIX OUT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS
OUT...THE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 220449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
IS STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD
FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG
TO MIX OUT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS
OUT...THE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 220449
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
IS STAYING WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH A
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE AND WINDS LIGHTENING UP...SOME WIDESPREAD
FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DENSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES JUMP UP AND CAUSE THE FOG
TO MIX OUT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FOR THE FOG IS WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE COMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
THAT OCCURRED ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. ONCE THAT CLEARS
OUT...THE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 220402
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS THE MAIN WARM
FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE..AND NO LOW LEVEL JETS TO SET OFF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WITH
LIGHT MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO SOME CLEARING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FOG.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS INTO THE LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS THE MAIN WARM
FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE..AND NO LOW LEVEL JETS TO SET OFF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WITH
LIGHT MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO SOME CLEARING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FOG.
SOME IFR/LIFR EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS INTO THE LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FIRST OF ALL...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR WHERE THEY ARE
PLACING QPF AND STORMS TONIGHT. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW
WITH ITS QPF SOLUTION BASED ON WHAT ALREADY HAPPENED THIS
MORNING...SO IF I MENTALLY CHANGE THE TIME TO BE VALID 6 HOURS
EARLIER...THE NAM ACTUALLY SEEMS REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS DEVELOPING STORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
TRACKING THEM ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL
DEVELOPS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SINCE IT DID NOT PICK UP
ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AND IS NOT A REASONABLE
SOLUTION.

THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AND A COUPLE OF OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THAT SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION GOING
ON OVER SOUTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE MODERATE
CAPE...SHEAR AND HELICITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THEREFORE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WEST. THE NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING HIGH CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI
AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CAP. A FEW
MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE OVER IA/IL.

SOME EXPECTED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL
WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSED IN THE
DAKOTAS/PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PLAINS AS
WELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW...WITH
THE BEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE PROGGD CLOSER TO WESTERN CWA. BEST
925/850 BAROCLINICITY LOCATED THERE. CORE OF 850 LLJ IS WELL WEST
BUT WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. 925 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 20C IN NE CWA TO AROUND 24C IN THE SW CWA. MEANWHILE
HOTTEST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH 925 TEMPS
DEEP IN INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. BEST CWASP NUMBERS WELL TO OUR WEST
WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS RESIDE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850 HOT PROD EXTENDS FURTHER
NORTHEAST WITH HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE AREA
WITH BEST BAROCLINICITY WELL TO OUR NORTH. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO
RANGE FROM 25C IN THE ERN CWA TO 28C IN THE WRN CWA. SO EXPECTING
TO SEE PLENTY OF LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS IN CNTRL AND WRN
CWA...OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE INDUCED COOLING. IF SE WINDS BEND MORE
SOUTHERLY MAY NEED TO EXPAND HOTTER TEMPS FURTHER EAST WITHIN THE
CWA. CWASP NUMBERS FOCUS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPPING IN PLACE. GIVEN 90/70 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT POTENTIAL MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME WITHIN
THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
MORE OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
LEAD RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY GENERATE STORMS WITH MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WITH
A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH APPROACHING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. THE TUE/WED
PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER...GETTING THE
FRONT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EMCWF SHOWS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING WITH DRY WEATHER WHILE THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA
POTENTIAL. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...BOTH ARE
LARGELY DRY. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS BUT FINALLY SUGGEST
A BREAK FROM THE THUNDER POTENTIAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING AND ROLL ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN...EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND
LIFT TO VFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A STRONG FRONT. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 220402
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS THE MAIN WARM
FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE..AND NO LOW LEVEL JETS TO SET OFF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WITH
LIGHT MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO SOME CLEARING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FOG.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS INTO THE LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AS THE MAIN WARM
FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE..AND NO LOW LEVEL JETS TO SET OFF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE MAIN PROBLEM IS FOG. SOME DENSE FOG WITH
LIGHT MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. ALSO SOME CLEARING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF FOG.
SOME IFR/LIFR EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS INTO THE LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A SMALL CAPPING
INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FIRST OF ALL...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR WHERE THEY ARE
PLACING QPF AND STORMS TONIGHT. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW
WITH ITS QPF SOLUTION BASED ON WHAT ALREADY HAPPENED THIS
MORNING...SO IF I MENTALLY CHANGE THE TIME TO BE VALID 6 HOURS
EARLIER...THE NAM ACTUALLY SEEMS REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS DEVELOPING STORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
TRACKING THEM ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL
DEVELOPS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SINCE IT DID NOT PICK UP
ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AND IS NOT A REASONABLE
SOLUTION.

THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AND A COUPLE OF OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THAT SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION GOING
ON OVER SOUTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE MODERATE
CAPE...SHEAR AND HELICITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THEREFORE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WEST. THE NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING HIGH CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI
AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CAP. A FEW
MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE OVER IA/IL.

SOME EXPECTED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL
WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSED IN THE
DAKOTAS/PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PLAINS AS
WELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW...WITH
THE BEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE PROGGD CLOSER TO WESTERN CWA. BEST
925/850 BAROCLINICITY LOCATED THERE. CORE OF 850 LLJ IS WELL WEST
BUT WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. 925 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 20C IN NE CWA TO AROUND 24C IN THE SW CWA. MEANWHILE
HOTTEST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH 925 TEMPS
DEEP IN INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. BEST CWASP NUMBERS WELL TO OUR WEST
WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS RESIDE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850 HOT PROD EXTENDS FURTHER
NORTHEAST WITH HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE AREA
WITH BEST BAROCLINICITY WELL TO OUR NORTH. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO
RANGE FROM 25C IN THE ERN CWA TO 28C IN THE WRN CWA. SO EXPECTING
TO SEE PLENTY OF LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS IN CNTRL AND WRN
CWA...OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE INDUCED COOLING. IF SE WINDS BEND MORE
SOUTHERLY MAY NEED TO EXPAND HOTTER TEMPS FURTHER EAST WITHIN THE
CWA. CWASP NUMBERS FOCUS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPPING IN PLACE. GIVEN 90/70 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT POTENTIAL MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME WITHIN
THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
MORE OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
LEAD RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY GENERATE STORMS WITH MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WITH
A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH APPROACHING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. THE TUE/WED
PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER...GETTING THE
FRONT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EMCWF SHOWS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING WITH DRY WEATHER WHILE THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA
POTENTIAL. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...BOTH ARE
LARGELY DRY. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS BUT FINALLY SUGGEST
A BREAK FROM THE THUNDER POTENTIAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING AND ROLL ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN...EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND
LIFT TO VFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A STRONG FRONT. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KGRB 220357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1057 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI THIS EVG
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM NW WI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A S/W
TROF AND H8 WAA/ISENT LIFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
QUITE WEAK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...INCLUDING NORTHERN WI...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT.
JUST KEPT LOW END 20-30 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF DENSE FOG EAST OF WAUSAU...SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED LIGHT EAST FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NC WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL PROBABLY
UPDATE THE HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SITUATION FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
EVG...AND PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHRA/TSRA
WERE HEADED TOWARD PARTS OF C/NC WI. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSTMS TO THE AUW/CWA TAFS FROM 06Z/FRI-09Z/FRI...BUT BACKED OFF TO
JUST SHOWERS FOR THE RHI TAF.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOWER CIGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID TO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220357
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1057 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI THIS EVG
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM NW WI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A S/W
TROF AND H8 WAA/ISENT LIFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
QUITE WEAK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...INCLUDING NORTHERN WI...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT.
JUST KEPT LOW END 20-30 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF DENSE FOG EAST OF WAUSAU...SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED LIGHT EAST FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NC WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL PROBABLY
UPDATE THE HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SITUATION FOR NOW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS
EVG...AND PATCHY FOG WAS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHRA/TSRA
WERE HEADED TOWARD PARTS OF C/NC WI. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSTMS TO THE AUW/CWA TAFS FROM 06Z/FRI-09Z/FRI...BUT BACKED OFF TO
JUST SHOWERS FOR THE RHI TAF.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LOWER CIGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID TO
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KARX 220208
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

RECENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT KRST/KLSE CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS NOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MOIST AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AT KLSE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 220208
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.

SO FAR THIS EVENING...THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW THAT
RUNS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
22.01Z RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SBCAPE IS ON THE WANE WITH THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GRADIENT IN
INSTABILITY...NW WI...AND THE OTHER MAIN CELLS ALONG THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY AXIS POKING INTO NW IOWA. THE MAIN CONVERGENCE WILL
REMAIN WITH THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT THUS
WEAKENING THIS CONVERGENCE. WHILE SFC/ML INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT...0-3KM MUCAPE ACTUALLY GETS A BUMP
UP PER THE 22.01Z RAP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WARM...SO IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE UPDRAFT TO
GET ANY OF THE CONVECTION TO GO SEVERE WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. STILL MAY MANAGE
TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...JUST NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT WOULD GET
OUT OF HAND.

WITH A HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S...FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE 21.21Z
SREF IS LOCKING ONTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE IT APPEARS THAT A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS LOCATED AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO DROP BELOW 1SM. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACHES...SOME MORE SITES COULD DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT IF THE
SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BLOWING OFF OF THE
CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND COULD INITIALLY SLOW THINGS
DOWN...BUT EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND LEAD TO
THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THE
WHEN/WHERE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT SOME PORTION OF THE
AREA MAY NEED ONE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

RECENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT KRST/KLSE CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS NOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MOIST AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AT KLSE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 220146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
846 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI THIS EVG
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM NW WI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A S/W
TROF AND H8 WAA/ISENT LIFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
QUITE WEAK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...INCLUDING NORTHERN WI...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT.
JUST KEPT LOW END 20-30 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF DENSE FOG EAST OF WAUSAU...SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED LIGHT EAST FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NC WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL PROBABLY
UPDATE THE HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SITUATION FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 220146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
846 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI THIS EVG
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION
APPROACHING FROM NW WI. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A S/W
TROF AND H8 WAA/ISENT LIFT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
QUITE WEAK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...INCLUDING NORTHERN WI...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVG AND OVERNIGHT.
JUST KEPT LOW END 20-30 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF DENSE FOG EAST OF WAUSAU...SO
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED LIGHT EAST FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NC WI AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL PROBABLY
UPDATE THE HWO AND ISSUE AN SPS TO HANDLE THE SITUATION FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 212351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 212351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 212351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 212351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
651 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS COVERED MOST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS
EVG...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF C/EC WI. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS EXITING FAR NE WI...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER NW WI WAS POISED TO IMPACT NC WI THIS EVG...AND FAR NE WI
DURING THE LATE EVG/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSTMS TO THE RHI TAF DURING THE MID TO LATE EVG...BUT
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PCPN TRENDS TO ADD TSTMS AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.

EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BE PREVALENT AT THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KARX 212343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

RECENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT KRST/KLSE CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS NOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MOIST AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AT KLSE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....DAS



000
FXUS63 KARX 212343
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

RECENT ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT KRST/KLSE CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS NOW ON FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MOIST AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG AT BOTH KRST/KLSE.
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AT KLSE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING...THEN GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
HYDROLOGY....DAS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212040
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FIRST OF ALL...THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR WHERE THEY ARE
PLACING QPF AND STORMS TONIGHT. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW
WITH ITS QPF SOLUTION BASED ON WHAT ALREADY HAPPENED THIS
MORNING...SO IF I MENTALLY CHANGE THE TIME TO BE VALID 6 HOURS
EARLIER...THE NAM ACTUALLY SEEMS REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH IS DEVELOPING STORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
TRACKING THEM ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL
DEVELOPS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SINCE IT DID NOT PICK UP
ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AND IS NOT A REASONABLE
SOLUTION.

THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM AND A COUPLE OF OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THAT SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
TO COVER THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION GOING
ON OVER SOUTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE MODERATE
CAPE...SHEAR AND HELICITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THEREFORE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS WEST. THE NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING HIGH CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI
AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL BE A SMALL CAP. A FEW
MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE...BUT THERE IS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE OVER IA/IL.

SOME EXPECTED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL
WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 25C...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
588DM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSED IN THE
DAKOTAS/PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PLAINS AS
WELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE LOW...WITH
THE BEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE PROGGD CLOSER TO WESTERN CWA. BEST
925/850 BAROCLINICITY LOCATED THERE. CORE OF 850 LLJ IS WELL WEST
BUT WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. 925 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 20C IN NE CWA TO AROUND 24C IN THE SW CWA. MEANWHILE
HOTTEST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH 925 TEMPS
DEEP IN INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. BEST CWASP NUMBERS WELL TO OUR WEST
WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS RESIDE.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850 HOT PROD EXTENDS FURTHER
NORTHEAST WITH HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING ALL OF THE AREA
WITH BEST BAROCLINICITY WELL TO OUR NORTH. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO
RANGE FROM 25C IN THE ERN CWA TO 28C IN THE WRN CWA. SO EXPECTING
TO SEE PLENTY OF LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGH TEMPS IN CNTRL AND WRN
CWA...OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE INDUCED COOLING. IF SE WINDS BEND MORE
SOUTHERLY MAY NEED TO EXPAND HOTTER TEMPS FURTHER EAST WITHIN THE
CWA. CWASP NUMBERS FOCUS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A HOT/HUMID
AIRMASS WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPPING IN PLACE. GIVEN 90/70 DEGREE
TEMP/DEW POINT POTENTIAL MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOME WITHIN
THE CWA.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
MORE OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
LEAD RIPPLES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY GENERATE STORMS WITH MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS WITH
A MORE PROMINENT TROUGH APPROACHING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. THE TUE/WED
PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING...THOUGH STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING FASTER...GETTING THE
FRONT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EMCWF SHOWS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING WITH DRY WEATHER WHILE THE
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA
POTENTIAL. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...BOTH ARE
LARGELY DRY. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS BUT FINALLY SUGGEST
A BREAK FROM THE THUNDER POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING AND ROLL ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN...EXPECT
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND
LIFT TO VFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF A STRONG FRONT. THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 212039
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FIRST COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA AND LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING
SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT TOOK A WHILE TO DO SO. MUCH OF THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NOW LOOKS TO BE VFR AS THE DELAYED EXIT OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
DEPENDS ON WHERE A SFC WARM FRONT ENDS UP. SFC PRESSURE TROUGH HAS
JUMPED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TO NEAR KMSP AND NORTH OF KLSE...WHILE
WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH CLOUDS/RA
HAS KEPT ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA. DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BETTER LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE IS STILL ALIGNED ALONG/
NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VCTS/CB MENTIONS AT KRST/KLSE IN THE 21-01/02Z
TIME FRAME FOR NOW UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS SEEN. ONCE THIS
CONVECTION WOULD SLIDE EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...ATTENTION FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING TURNS TO BR/FG. WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE RECENT RAINS/RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS THE
AREA UP FOR BR/FG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-13/14Z PERIOD. GIVEN THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND IT IS NOW LATE AUG...BR/FG WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME 4-6SM HZ EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RRS
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 212039
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FIRST COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA AND LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING
SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT TOOK A WHILE TO DO SO. MUCH OF THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NOW LOOKS TO BE VFR AS THE DELAYED EXIT OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
DEPENDS ON WHERE A SFC WARM FRONT ENDS UP. SFC PRESSURE TROUGH HAS
JUMPED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TO NEAR KMSP AND NORTH OF KLSE...WHILE
WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH CLOUDS/RA
HAS KEPT ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA. DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BETTER LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE IS STILL ALIGNED ALONG/
NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VCTS/CB MENTIONS AT KRST/KLSE IN THE 21-01/02Z
TIME FRAME FOR NOW UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS SEEN. ONCE THIS
CONVECTION WOULD SLIDE EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...ATTENTION FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING TURNS TO BR/FG. WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE RECENT RAINS/RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS THE
AREA UP FOR BR/FG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-13/14Z PERIOD. GIVEN THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND IT IS NOW LATE AUG...BR/FG WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME 4-6SM HZ EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RRS
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 212039
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FIRST COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA AND LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING
SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT TOOK A WHILE TO DO SO. MUCH OF THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NOW LOOKS TO BE VFR AS THE DELAYED EXIT OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
DEPENDS ON WHERE A SFC WARM FRONT ENDS UP. SFC PRESSURE TROUGH HAS
JUMPED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TO NEAR KMSP AND NORTH OF KLSE...WHILE
WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH CLOUDS/RA
HAS KEPT ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA. DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BETTER LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE IS STILL ALIGNED ALONG/
NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VCTS/CB MENTIONS AT KRST/KLSE IN THE 21-01/02Z
TIME FRAME FOR NOW UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS SEEN. ONCE THIS
CONVECTION WOULD SLIDE EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...ATTENTION FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING TURNS TO BR/FG. WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE RECENT RAINS/RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS THE
AREA UP FOR BR/FG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-13/14Z PERIOD. GIVEN THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND IT IS NOW LATE AUG...BR/FG WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME 4-6SM HZ EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RRS
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KARX 212039
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT GAVE THE
AREA MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER EASTERN WI.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PROVIDED SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEW POINTS WERE CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR A BIT MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE
ATMOSPHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO/OVER IT. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL WA
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LOOK BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF BASED ON THIS WEAKER
SIGNAL...SO WENT WITH SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT...ANY BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR
SOUTH BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO REAL TRIGGER
MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION OTHER THAN WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING INTO
THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING BEST 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE ACROSS WESTERN IA/MN. AS SUCH...KEPT
HIGHER POPS FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN...TAPERING
EASTWARD OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE QUITE
HIGH IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE...SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL GIVEN HIGHER-END PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS NAM INDICATING 0-3KM
MUCAPE IN THE 2000-4500J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

SUNDAY LOOKING HOT/MUGGY/CAPPED AS THE AREA BECOMES ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
CANADA. NAM DRAWING IN 27-31C 925MB AIR INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THIS WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD DICTATE
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100. TOOK A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
90. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR A POSSIBLE
HEAT HEADLINE.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FIRST COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA AND LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVING
SOUTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT TOOK A WHILE TO DO SO. MUCH OF THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NOW LOOKS TO BE VFR AS THE DELAYED EXIT OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
DEPENDS ON WHERE A SFC WARM FRONT ENDS UP. SFC PRESSURE TROUGH HAS
JUMPED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TO NEAR KMSP AND NORTH OF KLSE...WHILE
WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH CLOUDS/RA
HAS KEPT ANOTHER BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA. DEW POINT
DISCONTINUITY IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROUGH/BOUNDARY. BETTER LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE IS STILL ALIGNED ALONG/
NORTHEAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE VCTS/CB MENTIONS AT KRST/KLSE IN THE 21-01/02Z
TIME FRAME FOR NOW UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS SEEN. ONCE THIS
CONVECTION WOULD SLIDE EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA...ATTENTION FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING TURNS TO BR/FG. WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW SLIDES INTO THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE RECENT RAINS/RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS THE
AREA UP FOR BR/FG...ESPECIALLY IN THE 09-13/14Z PERIOD. GIVEN THE
WEAK GRADIENT AND IT IS NOW LATE AUG...BR/FG WILL BE SLOWER TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME 4-6SM HZ EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU MUCH
OF THE MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. AS SUCH...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. NOT THINKING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS A WATCHFUL EYE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RRS
HYDROLOGY...DAS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 211936
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BREAKS POSSIBLE BEHIND DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211936
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BREAKS POSSIBLE BEHIND DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211936
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BREAKS POSSIBLE BEHIND DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL







000
FXUS63 KGRB 211936
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

IN THE NEAR-TERM...FIRST BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BEHIND SYSTEM INHIBITING ATMOSPHERE
FROM DESTABILIZING. ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT TOPS THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MN INTO N WI TONIGHT. WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT THAT IS SUPPRESSED A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THINK BETTER CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD THEN SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT.

FORCING THEN WANES LATER TNGT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS E AND 850
MB FLOW VEERS WLY. UPR HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA BUILD FRIDAY AND
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. HARD TO ABSOLUTELY
RULE OUT PRECIP GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES ACRS THE REGION...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
DEFINITELY UNFAVORABLE. WILL KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS.

TEMP FORECAST IS A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BEST PERFORMING
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
ARE PRODUCING SPOTTY QPF IN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS OR NO MEASURABLE POPS FOR THIS
STRETCH. MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO NUDGE EAST A LITTLE SATURDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW OR DEEP UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. H850 LLJ AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
A DEEP MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MINNESOTA AND
FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER TO THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN PERHAPS SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PROTECTING EASTERN AREAS.

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. WHILE TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN WITH THIS FROPA PASSAGE...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
SUPPORTS A PCPN MENTIONED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS THROUGH MONDAY.

DEEPER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS GETS SHOVED SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW END POPS. BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS FOR A FEW
PERIODS OF RAIN MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CLOUDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BREAKS POSSIBLE BEHIND DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SYSTEM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......JKL







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