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000
FXUS63 KARX 292340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER GEORGIAN BAY.
THIS LOW BROUGHT THE DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SNOW GRAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 39 MPH AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND
40 MPH AT DECORAH MUNICIPAL AIRPORT LATE THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE CLOUDS. THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH OF SAINT CLOUD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THESE BREAKS MOVED THROUGH
THE LA CROSSE AREA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. SOUNDINGS ARE PROVIDING
MIXED MESSAGES ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900 MB.
THE NAM KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER THROUGH
30.12Z. MEANWHILE THE GFS SCATTERS OUT THIS MOISTURE EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING...AM CONCERNED
THAT WHATEVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH EXISTS BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD EXPAND AND FILL IN THE HOLES THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST...THUS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM THIS EVENING
AND THEN WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THEIR MOISTURE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. AS A RESULT...THEY
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THEM.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE MUCH OF
FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THE SNOW SWATH CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS 11 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS HAVE
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THERE WAS EVEN AT
LEAST 1 RUN OF THE 50 ECMWF THAT HAD ITS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING FURTHER SOUTH...LOWERED OR TOOK OUT
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH INTERSTATE 90.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM/
ECMWF HAVE 2 QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THE
12 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE FAMILY HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS ABLE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AS A
RESULT...STILL DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF THESE SNOW BANDS.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND
ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE COLDER SIDE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
THURSDAY ECMWF LOW TEMPERATURE IS AMONGST THE LOWEST OF ITS 50
MEMBER ENSEMBLE FAMILY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AREA OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS IS MAKING SOME SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS...PER
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH WOULD CLEAR KRST BETWEEN 00-02Z AND
KLSE 06-08Z. ANTICIPATE VFR CLOUDS/SKC AFTER THAT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRI AS UPPER LEVEL SATURATION SPILLS ACROSS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...AND LOOK FOR A SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 292340
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER GEORGIAN BAY.
THIS LOW BROUGHT THE DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SNOW GRAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 39 MPH AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND
40 MPH AT DECORAH MUNICIPAL AIRPORT LATE THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE CLOUDS. THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH OF SAINT CLOUD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THESE BREAKS MOVED THROUGH
THE LA CROSSE AREA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. SOUNDINGS ARE PROVIDING
MIXED MESSAGES ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900 MB.
THE NAM KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER THROUGH
30.12Z. MEANWHILE THE GFS SCATTERS OUT THIS MOISTURE EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING...AM CONCERNED
THAT WHATEVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH EXISTS BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD EXPAND AND FILL IN THE HOLES THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST...THUS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM THIS EVENING
AND THEN WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THEIR MOISTURE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. AS A RESULT...THEY
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THEM.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE MUCH OF
FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THE SNOW SWATH CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS 11 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS HAVE
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THERE WAS EVEN AT
LEAST 1 RUN OF THE 50 ECMWF THAT HAD ITS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING FURTHER SOUTH...LOWERED OR TOOK OUT
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH INTERSTATE 90.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM/
ECMWF HAVE 2 QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THE
12 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE FAMILY HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS ABLE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AS A
RESULT...STILL DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF THESE SNOW BANDS.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND
ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE COLDER SIDE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
THURSDAY ECMWF LOW TEMPERATURE IS AMONGST THE LOWEST OF ITS 50
MEMBER ENSEMBLE FAMILY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AREA OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS IS MAKING SOME SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS...PER
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH WOULD CLEAR KRST BETWEEN 00-02Z AND
KLSE 06-08Z. ANTICIPATE VFR CLOUDS/SKC AFTER THAT...WITH SOME
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRI AS UPPER LEVEL SATURATION SPILLS ACROSS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
STAY UP THROUGH THE EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...AND LOOK FOR A SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH LATER FRI
MORNING AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK


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000
FXUS63 KGRB 292300
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
500 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES CENTER AROUND HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WL HANG
AROUND TNGT...IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF
HI PRES THAT STRETCHED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY SURPASSING 30 MPH. SOME
SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS UPR MI AND NE MN...BUT
THE PCPN HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID
INDICATE SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.

THE SNOW SHWR THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS FAVORABLE TRAJS...HI DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
TO PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3K FT AND LOWERING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HEIGHTS. THE NW HALF OF VILAS CNTY COULD GET AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AN AREA
OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY OVRNGT AND SEND
ENUF DRY AIR INTO WI TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
TRYING TO TIME WHEN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FCST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TOUGH PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. SINCE VSBL SATL IS PICKING UP
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WL BE ABLE TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TNGT. OF COURSE...
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW FAR TEMPS DROP
TNGT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE HI PRES
APPROACHES...THUS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUNGE. FOR NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND ZERO NORTH...5 TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE JUST TO
OUR EAST FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SW DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK
FOR MID AND HI CLOUDS TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD NE WI ON FRI...THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE WAA...
TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 15 TO
20 DEG RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W-NW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED
FOR BUSINESS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH TIMING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT) AND COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS 925-850MB WINDS WAVER FROM NW-NE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH NO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER 3000-4000FT...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SCENARIOS
HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM...AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF
THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF CANADA LOOKS TO WIN
THE BATTLE AND PUSHES THE BAROCLINC ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE GEM NOW HOLDS THE
PRECIP FROM SOUTHERN WI SOUTHWARD. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
GRIDS AND WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN POINT TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM KEWAUNEE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WI. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE
POTENT...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MODEL NOT IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SATURDAY (20S)...THEN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF COLD/ARCTIC
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND EACH WEATHER SYSTEM.
COLDEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST ISSUE IS TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS. FLOW ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR WL PROBABLY CAUSE CLDS TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN FCST BY THE MODELS. BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR AND LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW CLDS TO
BREAK. EXPECT A HOLE TO OPEN UP OVER NERN WI AND THEN EXPAND...AND
CLDS TO OUR W TO BEGIN TO DECR. N-C WL PROBABLY BE THE LAST AREA
TO CLEAR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KARX 292135
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 3 PM...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER GEORGIAN BAY.
THIS LOW BROUGHT THE DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SNOW GRAINS
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 39 MPH AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND
40 MPH AT DECORAH MUNICIPAL AIRPORT LATE THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE CLOUDS. THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH OF SAINT CLOUD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WERE ALSO NOTED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ONE OF THESE BREAKS MOVED THROUGH
THE LA CROSSE AREA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 2 PM. SOUNDINGS ARE PROVIDING
MIXED MESSAGES ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 900 MB.
THE NAM KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER THROUGH
30.12Z. MEANWHILE THE GFS SCATTERS OUT THIS MOISTURE EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING...AM CONCERNED
THAT WHATEVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH EXISTS BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD EXPAND AND FILL IN THE HOLES THAT
CURRENTLY EXIST...THUS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM THIS EVENING
AND THEN WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 29.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. BOTH THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THEIR MOISTURE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF. AS A RESULT...THEY
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 94. MEANWHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD THEM.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE MUCH OF
FORCING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...THE SNOW SWATH CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS 11 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS HAVE
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THERE WAS EVEN AT
LEAST 1 RUN OF THE 50 ECMWF THAT HAD ITS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING FURTHER SOUTH...LOWERED OR TOOK OUT
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH INTERSTATE 90.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM/
ECMWF HAVE 2 QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THE
12 29.12Z GFS ENSEMBLE FAMILY HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS ABLE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. AS A
RESULT...STILL DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOCATION OF THESE SNOW BANDS.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BOTH THE CFS VERSION 2 AND
ECWMF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THEIR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. MEANWHILE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS ON THE COLDER SIDE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
THURSDAY ECMWF LOW TEMPERATURE IS AMONGST THE LOWEST OF ITS 50
MEMBER ENSEMBLE FAMILY. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...JUST STAYED WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
LATEST METARS INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 05-07Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AND EASTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND DIMINISHES THE WINDS TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES. LATEST METARS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
STRATUS DECK BECOMES SCATTERED AT TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ



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000
FXUS63 KMKX 292127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS
THERMAL TROUGH STARTS EDGING EASTWARD THEREAFTER. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER. SOME UPSTREAM BREAKS IN THE STRATUS WITH A
FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED HOLES HERE AND THERE. LLVL RH PROGS ERODE
THIS OUT AFTER 6Z AND GIVEN THAT PLUS INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR NVA
AFTER 6Z... WENT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE
SKY GRIDS.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND LARGELY DOMINATES WITH LIGHTER
WIND REGIME. HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING TO THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH A SMIDGE OF WAA SHOULD RESULT IN A MID DECK SWINGING THROUGH
PER RH PROGS. NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS
KEEPING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AROUND. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE
GFS WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVELS. UPSTREAM CLEARING SUPPORTS THIS
FOR LOW CLOUD TRENDS... TRENDING TOWARDS AT LEAST A SCT CONDITION
IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
CANADA FRI NT AND SAT. SWLY SFC FLOW AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. THE WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE ON SAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS GRADUALLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE SAT EVE WHEN BRISK NELY WINDS DEVELOP. THE NELY FLOW AND 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C TO -15C BY 12Z SUN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG TO ERN NE BY 12Z SUN AND ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN IL
SUN EVE...WITH THE RRQD OF A 150 KT WLY JET OVER SRN WI ON SUN. THE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS PUTS THE WI/IL BORDER ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THUS 50 POPS ARE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN WI DUE TO THE
SYSTEM WITH 50 POPS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL. A DRY NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD EAST
CENTRAL WI. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SAT NT AND SUN IS
FOR AN INCH NEAR THE IL BORDER AND 2-3 INCHES IN FAR SE WI WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF SYSTEM SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL CHANGE AS THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOME MORE CLEAR. COLD TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO SRN WI FOR SAT NT THROUGH SUN NT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON MON WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS.
SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO RETURN FOR MON NT AND TUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE CENTRAL USA AND PROGRESS TO THE ERN
USA FOR WED-THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR TUE AND TUE NT. SNOW CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FROM MON NT-TUE NT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON NWLY WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL LATE TUE NT-WED NT. A STRONG POLAR HIGH TO FOLLOW
FOR LATE ON THU. HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR WED-THU WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR DECK REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. NW WINDS GRADUALLY EASE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z AS SURFACE HIGH NUDGES CLOSER. THE
HIGH DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WIND REGIME.
THE START OF SOME WEAK WAA AND SHORTWAVES RIDING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
SPREAD MID CLOUDS ACROSS SRN WI.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT BUT EXTEND A BIT LONGER TO ALLOW
A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR WAVE CESSATION. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
CLOSER. HOWEVER GRADIENT REGION REMAINS NEAR LAKE WHICH WILL LIKELY
ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY A BIT CLOSER TO THE OPEN
WATERS. HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



000
FXUS63 KMKX 292127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS
THERMAL TROUGH STARTS EDGING EASTWARD THEREAFTER. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER. SOME UPSTREAM BREAKS IN THE STRATUS WITH A
FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED HOLES HERE AND THERE. LLVL RH PROGS ERODE
THIS OUT AFTER 6Z AND GIVEN THAT PLUS INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR NVA
AFTER 6Z... WENT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE
SKY GRIDS.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS AND LARGELY DOMINATES WITH LIGHTER
WIND REGIME. HOWEVER WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING TO THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH A SMIDGE OF WAA SHOULD RESULT IN A MID DECK SWINGING THROUGH
PER RH PROGS. NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS
KEEPING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AROUND. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE
GFS WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVELS. UPSTREAM CLEARING SUPPORTS THIS
FOR LOW CLOUD TRENDS... TRENDING TOWARDS AT LEAST A SCT CONDITION
IN THIS REGARD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
CANADA FRI NT AND SAT. SWLY SFC FLOW AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS...WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. THE WARM ADVECTION AND POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE ON SAT WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS GRADUALLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE SAT EVE WHEN BRISK NELY WINDS DEVELOP. THE NELY FLOW AND 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C TO -15C BY 12Z SUN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG TO ERN NE BY 12Z SUN AND ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN IL
SUN EVE...WITH THE RRQD OF A 150 KT WLY JET OVER SRN WI ON SUN. THE
CONSENSUS OF MODELS PUTS THE WI/IL BORDER ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM. THUS 50 POPS ARE FORECAST OVER FAR SRN WI DUE TO THE
SYSTEM WITH 50 POPS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL. A DRY NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ESPECIALLY TOWARD EAST
CENTRAL WI. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SAT NT AND SUN IS
FOR AN INCH NEAR THE IL BORDER AND 2-3 INCHES IN FAR SE WI WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF SYSTEM SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR.
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL CHANGE AS THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM
SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOME MORE CLEAR. COLD TEMPS WILL
RETURN TO SRN WI FOR SAT NT THROUGH SUN NT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON MON WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS.
SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO RETURN FOR MON NT AND TUE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE CENTRAL USA AND PROGRESS TO THE ERN
USA FOR WED-THU. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR TUE AND TUE NT. SNOW CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FROM MON NT-TUE NT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON NWLY WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL LATE TUE NT-WED NT. A STRONG POLAR HIGH TO FOLLOW
FOR LATE ON THU. HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR WED-THU WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR DECK REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. NW WINDS GRADUALLY EASE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z AS SURFACE HIGH NUDGES CLOSER. THE
HIGH DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WIND REGIME.
THE START OF SOME WEAK WAA AND SHORTWAVES RIDING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD
SPREAD MID CLOUDS ACROSS SRN WI.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT BUT EXTEND A BIT LONGER TO ALLOW
A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR WAVE CESSATION. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
CLOSER. HOWEVER GRADIENT REGION REMAINS NEAR LAKE WHICH WILL LIKELY
ALLOW HIGHER WAVES TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY A BIT CLOSER TO THE OPEN
WATERS. HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KGRB 292023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES CENTER AROUND HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WL HANG
AROUND TNGT...IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF
HI PRES THAT STRETCHED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY SURPASSING 30 MPH. SOME
SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS UPR MI AND NE MN...BUT
THE PCPN HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID
INDICATE SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.

THE SNOW SHWR THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS FAVORABLE TRAJS...HI DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
TO PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3K FT AND LOWERING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HEIGHTS. THE NW HALF OF VILAS CNTY COULD GET AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AN AREA
OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY OVRNGT AND SEND
ENUF DRY AIR INTO WI TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
TRYING TO TIME WHEN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FCST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TOUGH PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. SINCE VSBL SATL IS PICKING UP
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WL BE ABLE TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TNGT. OF COURSE...
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW FAR TEMPS DROP
TNGT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE HI PRES
APPROACHES...THUS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUNGE. FOR NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND ZERO NORTH...5 TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE JUST TO
OUR EAST FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SW DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK
FOR MID AND HI CLOUDS TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD NE WI ON FRI...THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE WAA...
TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 15 TO
20 DEG RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W-NW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED
FOR BUSINESS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH TIMING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT) AND COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS 925-850MB WINDS WAVER FROM NW-NE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH NO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER 3000-4000FT...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SCENARIOS
HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM...AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF
THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF CANADA LOOKS TO WIN
THE BATTLE AND PUSHES THE BAROCLINC ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE GEM NOW HOLDS THE
PRECIP FROM SOUTHERN WI SOUTHWARD. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
GRIDS AND WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN POINT TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM KEWAUNEE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WI. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE
POTENT...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MODEL NOT IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SATURDAY (20S)...THEN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF COLD/ARCTIC
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND EACH WEATHER SYSTEM.
COLDEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KGRB 292023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES CENTER AROUND HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WL HANG
AROUND TNGT...IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF
HI PRES THAT STRETCHED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY SURPASSING 30 MPH. SOME
SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS UPR MI AND NE MN...BUT
THE PCPN HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID
INDICATE SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.

THE SNOW SHWR THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS FAVORABLE TRAJS...HI DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
TO PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3K FT AND LOWERING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HEIGHTS. THE NW HALF OF VILAS CNTY COULD GET AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AN AREA
OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY OVRNGT AND SEND
ENUF DRY AIR INTO WI TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
TRYING TO TIME WHEN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FCST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TOUGH PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. SINCE VSBL SATL IS PICKING UP
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WL BE ABLE TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TNGT. OF COURSE...
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW FAR TEMPS DROP
TNGT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE HI PRES
APPROACHES...THUS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUNGE. FOR NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND ZERO NORTH...5 TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE JUST TO
OUR EAST FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SW DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK
FOR MID AND HI CLOUDS TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD NE WI ON FRI...THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE WAA...
TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 15 TO
20 DEG RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W-NW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED
FOR BUSINESS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH TIMING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT) AND COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS 925-850MB WINDS WAVER FROM NW-NE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH NO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER 3000-4000FT...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SCENARIOS
HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM...AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF
THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF CANADA LOOKS TO WIN
THE BATTLE AND PUSHES THE BAROCLINC ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE GEM NOW HOLDS THE
PRECIP FROM SOUTHERN WI SOUTHWARD. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
GRIDS AND WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN POINT TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM KEWAUNEE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WI. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE
POTENT...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MODEL NOT IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SATURDAY (20S)...THEN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF COLD/ARCTIC
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND EACH WEATHER SYSTEM.
COLDEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KGRB 292023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES CENTER AROUND HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WL HANG
AROUND TNGT...IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF
HI PRES THAT STRETCHED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY SURPASSING 30 MPH. SOME
SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS UPR MI AND NE MN...BUT
THE PCPN HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID
INDICATE SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.

THE SNOW SHWR THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS FAVORABLE TRAJS...HI DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
TO PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3K FT AND LOWERING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HEIGHTS. THE NW HALF OF VILAS CNTY COULD GET AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AN AREA
OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY OVRNGT AND SEND
ENUF DRY AIR INTO WI TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
TRYING TO TIME WHEN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FCST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TOUGH PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. SINCE VSBL SATL IS PICKING UP
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WL BE ABLE TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TNGT. OF COURSE...
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW FAR TEMPS DROP
TNGT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE HI PRES
APPROACHES...THUS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUNGE. FOR NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND ZERO NORTH...5 TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE JUST TO
OUR EAST FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SW DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK
FOR MID AND HI CLOUDS TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD NE WI ON FRI...THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE WAA...
TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 15 TO
20 DEG RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W-NW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED
FOR BUSINESS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH TIMING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT) AND COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS 925-850MB WINDS WAVER FROM NW-NE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH NO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER 3000-4000FT...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SCENARIOS
HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM...AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF
THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF CANADA LOOKS TO WIN
THE BATTLE AND PUSHES THE BAROCLINC ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE GEM NOW HOLDS THE
PRECIP FROM SOUTHERN WI SOUTHWARD. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
GRIDS AND WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN POINT TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM KEWAUNEE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WI. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE
POTENT...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MODEL NOT IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SATURDAY (20S)...THEN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF COLD/ARCTIC
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND EACH WEATHER SYSTEM.
COLDEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KGRB 292023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST ISSUES CENTER AROUND HOW LONG THESE LOW CLOUDS WL HANG
AROUND TNGT...IMPACT ON MIN TEMPS AND MINOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER AND A BROAD AREA OF
HI PRES THAT STRETCHED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTED ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY SURPASSING 30 MPH. SOME
SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES WERE FOUND ACROSS UPR MI AND NE MN...BUT
THE PCPN HAD PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR NE WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY DID
INDICATE SOME BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST.

THE SNOW SHWR THREAT FOR N-CNTRL WI WL CONT THRU THE EVENING HOURS
AS FAVORABLE TRAJS...HI DELTA-T VALUES AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW
TO PERSIST. THAT BEING SAID...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR
DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 3K FT AND LOWERING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HEIGHTS. THE NW HALF OF VILAS CNTY COULD GET AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AN AREA
OF HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY OVRNGT AND SEND
ENUF DRY AIR INTO WI TO ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF THE LAKE EFFECT.
TRYING TO TIME WHEN TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINS THE BIGGEST
FCST PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD TOUGH PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS. SINCE VSBL SATL IS PICKING UP
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALREADY...HAVE REMAINED OPTIMISTIC THAT
WE WL BE ABLE TO GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TNGT. OF COURSE...
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW FAR TEMPS DROP
TNGT. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WL DIMINISH OVRNGT AS THE HI PRES
APPROACHES...THUS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUNGE. FOR NOW...HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND ZERO NORTH...5 TO 10 ABOVE
ZERO SOUTH WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS AREA OF HI PRES PUSHES ACROSS WI FRI MORNING AND BE JUST TO
OUR EAST FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE
SW DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK
FOR MID AND HI CLOUDS TO STEADILY OVERSPREAD NE WI ON FRI...THUS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE WAA...
TEMPS WL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE 15 TO
20 DEG RANGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE LONG TERM AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS W-NW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...KEEPING THE GULF OF MEXICO CLOSED
FOR BUSINESS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WITH TIMING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT) AND COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...CLOSER TO THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO ADVERTISE A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS 925-850MB WINDS WAVER FROM NW-NE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH NO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE FETCH AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER 3000-4000FT...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE SCENARIOS
HANDLED PRETTY WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM...AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF
THE CWA...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH OF CANADA LOOKS TO WIN
THE BATTLE AND PUSHES THE BAROCLINC ZONE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AND MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA. EVEN THE GEM NOW HOLDS THE
PRECIP FROM SOUTHERN WI SOUTHWARD. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
GRIDS AND WENT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND EAST-CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES ON LAKE MICHIGAN POINT TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM KEWAUNEE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE NE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WITH
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO WI. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER...POSSIBLY MORE
POTENT...SHORTWAVE AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MODEL NOT IN THE
BEST AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SATURDAY (20S)...THEN MUCH COLDER
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS SURGES OF COLD/ARCTIC
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND EACH WEATHER SYSTEM.
COLDEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KARX 291732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FELL OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS AS MANY COUNTY SHERIFF
DEPARTMENTS HAVE REPORTED THAT THINGS ARE OKAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SLICK SPOTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT SALTING CREWS HAVE
QUICKLY FOUND THESE SPOTS AND TAKEN CARE OF THEM. WITH THE DRIZZLE
ABOUT TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WILL BE
ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE HERE AT 6 AM. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING APPEARS
OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
LATEST METARS INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 05-07Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AND EASTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND DIMINISHES THE WINDS TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES. LATEST METARS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
STRATUS DECK BECOMES SCATTERED AT TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 291732
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FELL OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS AS MANY COUNTY SHERIFF
DEPARTMENTS HAVE REPORTED THAT THINGS ARE OKAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SLICK SPOTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT SALTING CREWS HAVE
QUICKLY FOUND THESE SPOTS AND TAKEN CARE OF THEM. WITH THE DRIZZLE
ABOUT TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WILL BE
ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE HERE AT 6 AM. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING APPEARS
OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TAF PERIOD ARE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
LATEST METARS INDICATING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH 05-07Z FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
AND EASTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND DIMINISHES THE WINDS TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS BY 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES. LATEST METARS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
STRATUS DECK BECOMES SCATTERED AT TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291721
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291721
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS MAY LINGER THRU
MID-AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE AREA. ONCE
THIS FEATURE DEPARTS...A DRY FCST IS EXPECTED FOR TNGT AND FRI.
PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD EAST
TOWARD WI TNGT AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND E-CNTRL WI. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS N-CNTRL WI MAY KEEP HI-END MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS
GOING ACROSS THE RHI TAF SITE THRU THE OVRNGT HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY FRI MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON FRI...
ALTHO MID/HI CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO WI AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KMKX 291716
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1116 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR DECK REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH COLD ADVECTION. KARX RADAR ANIMATION SHOWS HOW ANY
LINGERING SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIP HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
NW WINDS GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z AS SURFACE
HIGH NUDGES CLOSER. THE HIGH DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHTER WIND REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WHILE ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TAKING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE EXITS THE FAR EAST WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE...THEN GOING NEUTRAL...WITH WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
MOVES OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ANOTHER VERY
WEAK AREA OF UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

850/700 MB COOLING OCCURS TODAY. HOWEVER THE 700 MB RH IS RATHER
DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DRIES THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE COOLING...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITE ZONE...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THIS
MORNING.

925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...SO LOW CLOUD
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND CLIPS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM MORE MOIST AND THE GFS LESS SO. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK.

CANADIAN MODEL HAS LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
30 ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLITUDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...FROM TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AS WELL.

THUS...MOST OF THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN
THESE MODELS. THEY DO INDICATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHEAST WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND A MOIST DENDRITE ZONE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THERE IS DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH WOULD BE A
NEGATIVE.

THE NAM/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO BRING A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AS COLDER AIR IS ABSORBED INTO THE
AREA...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO INCREASE. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD RESULT IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

FOR NOW...WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH
POPS...WHICH BRINGS DOWN THE POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF FORECASTS. ALSO REDUCED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS A FAIR AMOUNT...GIVEN
THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FEATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IS SEEN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTED BY SATURATION AND DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE DENDRITE ZONE PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE QPF WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS WITH POPS.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TREND TOWARD COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COLD WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EARLY MONDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MAINLY
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. 925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...SO CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW THIS EVENING.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
AROUND 9 AM CST BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 291716
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1116 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR DECK REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH COLD ADVECTION. KARX RADAR ANIMATION SHOWS HOW ANY
LINGERING SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIP HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
NW WINDS GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 6Z AS SURFACE
HIGH NUDGES CLOSER. THE HIGH DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHTER WIND REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WHILE ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TAKING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE EXITS THE FAR EAST WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE...THEN GOING NEUTRAL...WITH WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
MOVES OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ANOTHER VERY
WEAK AREA OF UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

850/700 MB COOLING OCCURS TODAY. HOWEVER THE 700 MB RH IS RATHER
DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DRIES THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE COOLING...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITE ZONE...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THIS
MORNING.

925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...SO LOW CLOUD
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND CLIPS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM MORE MOIST AND THE GFS LESS SO. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK.

CANADIAN MODEL HAS LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
30 ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLITUDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...FROM TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AS WELL.

THUS...MOST OF THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN
THESE MODELS. THEY DO INDICATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHEAST WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND A MOIST DENDRITE ZONE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THERE IS DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH WOULD BE A
NEGATIVE.

THE NAM/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO BRING A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AS COLDER AIR IS ABSORBED INTO THE
AREA...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO INCREASE. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD RESULT IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

FOR NOW...WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH
POPS...WHICH BRINGS DOWN THE POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF FORECASTS. ALSO REDUCED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS A FAIR AMOUNT...GIVEN
THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FEATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IS SEEN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTED BY SATURATION AND DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE DENDRITE ZONE PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE QPF WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS WITH POPS.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TREND TOWARD COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COLD WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EARLY MONDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MAINLY
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. 925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...SO CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW THIS EVENING.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
AROUND 9 AM CST BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291312
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CANCELLED REMAINDER OF FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS LIGHT BAND OF
MIXED PCPN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND NO MAJOR ROAD
ISSUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH/AK/BERSCH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





000
FXUS63 KGRB 291244 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-038-048-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ022-
039-040-049-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291244 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM MVFR OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VSBYS MAINLY
MVFR DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WHILE BANDS OF A
LIGHT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WERE PASSING OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z. AS THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN AND IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA...EXPECT CLOUDS TO IMPROVE TO A WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS
MORNING...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VSBYS
WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-038-048-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ022-
039-040-049-050.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






000
FXUS63 KARX 291148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FELL OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS AS MANY COUNTY SHERIFF
DEPARTMENTS HAVE REPORTED THAT THINGS ARE OKAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SLICK SPOTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT SALTING CREWS HAVE
QUICKLY FOUND THESE SPOTS AND TAKEN CARE OF THEM. WITH THE DRIZZLE
ABOUT TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WILL BE
ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE HERE AT 6 AM. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING APPEARS
OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRIZZLE IS COMING TO AN END THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY STAY AT VFR. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE IFR CEILINGS AND STRONG WINDS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND
MAINLY BE MVFR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 291148
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT FELL OVERNIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AREA ROADWAYS AS MANY COUNTY SHERIFF
DEPARTMENTS HAVE REPORTED THAT THINGS ARE OKAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SLICK SPOTS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT SALTING CREWS HAVE
QUICKLY FOUND THESE SPOTS AND TAKEN CARE OF THEM. WITH THE DRIZZLE
ABOUT TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WILL BE
ALLOWING THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE HERE AT 6 AM. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SLICK SPOTS...BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD ICING APPEARS
OVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRIZZLE IS COMING TO AN END THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY STAY AT VFR. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE IFR CEILINGS AND STRONG WINDS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND
MAINLY BE MVFR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KGRB 291130 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291130 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291130 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 291130 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VSBYS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI AND PARTS OF CENTRAL IMPROVING OR WILL
BE IMPROVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AS A RESULT WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 AM IN THOSE LOCATIONS. AT
ISSUE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE EAST CENTRAL EXPIRATION AT 8
AM...WHERE PCPN HAS OVERALL BEEN NIL. SCATTERED BANDS OF VERY
LIGHT MIX PCPN DID PASS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE FOX CITIES...WHILE
RADAR SHOWS A LIGHT BAND OF A LIKELY MIX TO PASS OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. REPORTS TO THE WEST INDICATE SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG
HIGHWAY 94 NEAR TOMAH DID CAUSE SOME CARS TO GO OFF THE ROAD. WI
DOT ROAD REPORT JUST CAME IN WITH SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON AREA
ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAY 10...21...45...41 AND I43. EVEN THOUGH
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD SO FAR...WILL HANG
ONTO IT DUE TO THIS LAST BAND PASSING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KARX 290939
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER
FEEL FOR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND SCOUR
THE FOG AND DZ EAST.

DRIZZLE COULD STILL FREEZE ON SURFACES/WINGS AS THE TEMPERATURE IS
RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY AT KRST. EXPECT A
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 5KFT OR 6KFT AGL WHERE
ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290939
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...LINGERING WINTRY MIX CHANCES THIS
MORNING...WINDS TODAY...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY/TONIGHT.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IA WITH A
TROUGH NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL WI TO THE WESTERN U.P OF MI...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DZ/FZDZ GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AIR AND ROAD SFC TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
32F...WITH MINIMAL ICING/GLAZING PROBLEMS REPORTED SO FAR. WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN MN/IA AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND
PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES IN. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS
COMMON WEST OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SLOWING
IMPROVING THESE AREAS WITH THE INCREASE OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

29.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR 27.00Z AND 28.00Z RUNS. SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY
THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST IS LEFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. TREND
FAVORS A COMPROMISE ON THE SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND
MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON THIS...SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE GOOD. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WHICH THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH REMAIN PROBLEMATIC TO THE FCST.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES TO LK MI/EASTERN
IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A
1036-1040MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS
ACROSS MN/IA/WI TODAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY IFR...AND
1-5SM VSBYS IN FOG BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS INDICATE
LINGERING LIFT IN THE LOWER SATURATED SFC-850MB LAYER THRU TODAY...
EVEN AS STRONGER GRADIENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. DIMINISHING MAINLY -FZDZ
CHANCES THRU THE MORNING REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. BY AFTERNOON...
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER/MOISTURE IS AROUND -10C. WITH WEAK
LINGERING LIFT IN THIS LOWER LAYER MAY YET NEED A FLURRY MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW. WITH
THE WEAK LIFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...LEFT SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THRU THE DAY. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION/BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN STEADY/SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPS THRU THE DAY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE 35-40KT RANGE. STRONGEST
OF THE POST-TROUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE THIS MORNING...WEAKENING THRU
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISE AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE 35-40KT RANGE...WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE AREA
PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT VS. A STRONG DOWNWARD FLUX OF MOMENTUM
SIGNAL WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST
AREA FOR NOW. WILL STILL BE WINDY THERE THRU THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...20-30 MPH G40 MPH. WINDS ELSEWHERE TODAY 15-25MPH G30-35
MPH. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE
AREA AT 12Z FRI...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -10C TO -16C RANGE. WOULD
THINK SKIES WOULD CLEAR TONIGHT IN STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
925-850MB RIDGE AXIS AND STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER MODELS
STUBBORNLY HANG ONTO MOISTURE IN THE 925MB LAYER STUCK UNDER THE
INVERSION NEAR 900MB. MOISTURE PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW AND
WITH THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE/CLEAR TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FCST CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SAT NIGHT.

MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRI THRU SAT WITH MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THESE PERIODS LOOKING TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. BY SAT NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM/CAN-GEM STRONGER/SLOWER...ECMWF/GFS FASTER/
FLATTER/MORE SHEARED AND INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PHASING WITH ANY
ENERGY FROM THE CA BAJA LOW. GIVEN A LARGE SPREAD SEEN IN BOTH THE
SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES BY SAT NIGHT...NO ONE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND PREFERRED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW. FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD FRI THRU SAT THEN BELOW AVERAGE
SAT NIGHT.

COLD...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI. LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 925MB TEMPS BACK IN THE 0C TO -
8C RANGE BY 12Z SAT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN FRI
AFTERNOON THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI FRI NIGHT. THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT DOES
STRENGTHEN THE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW/WARM ADVECTION FOR FRI
NIGHT. FRI NIGHT LOWS STILL TRENDING TO BE IN THE EVENING WITH
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC TROUGH WITH THIS WAVE
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. THIS
WIND SHIFT TO USHER THE CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER
SAT/SAT NIGHT. PLENTY OF TIMING DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...AS LAST 28.21Z AND 29.03Z SREF HAVE SHOWN A 30F
TEMP SPREAD AT KLSE AT 01.00Z. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS FRI THRU SAT. STRONGER...MORE DIGGING
SHORTWAVE OF THE NAM/CAN-GEM SPREADS MORE 850-500MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE...AND SNOW CHANCES...NORTHWARD OVER THE LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME INTO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. FLATTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT MORE ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. WITH THE BIG ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SAT
NIGHT...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT
SNOW CHANCES /HIGHEST SOUTH/ THIS PERIOD. STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 29.00Z OFFER GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOME
FORM OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE APPROACHING/MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MON WITH HGTS TO THEN RISE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MON NIGHT/TUE. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES COMING
OUT OF SAT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU WED IS AVERAGE FOR A
DAY 5 THRU 7 PERIOD.

NAM/CAN-GEM FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL/SNOW CHANCES FROM SAT NIGHT WOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SUN AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS WHILE GFS/ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES. AGAIN STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
SUNDAY. BETTER CONSENSUS FOR COLDER/DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE AS THE SFC-
700MB LOW/TROUGH WITH THE NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD
AND ACROSS MN/IA/WI. GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM ALL LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME -SN
WITH THIS ROUND OF LIFT...QUESTIONS ARE WHERE AND HOW MUCH WHICH AT
THE DAY 5 TO 6 TIMEFRAME IS NOT UNEXPECTED. SMALL CONSENSUS -SN
CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF CAN/
ARCTIC AIR/HIGH PRESSURE THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST...AT THIS TIME
SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER
FEEL FOR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND SCOUR
THE FOG AND DZ EAST.

DRIZZLE COULD STILL FREEZE ON SURFACES/WINGS AS THE TEMPERATURE IS
RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY AT KRST. EXPECT A
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 5KFT OR 6KFT AGL WHERE
ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ALTHOUGH LIGHT...AREA RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VARIETY
OF RETURNS. FREEZING DRIZZLE RETURNS WERE NOTED IN AREAS WHERE MID
LEVEL RETURNS WERE LESS DEVELOPED...BUT GROUND TRUTH NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH AT THIS TIME.  ONE REGION OF MID LEVEL RETURNS
PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER MANITOWOC COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT 200 AM TEMPS AT OSH AT 31 WHILE MTW IS AT 32. MTW
REPORTED RAIN AND SNOW WHILE OSH IS UNKNOWN. ANOTHER BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING BRIEFLY PRODUCED LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH SPOTTY OBSERVATIONS NORTHWEST OF THIS BAND NEAR
DLH REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LET THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN HEADLINE RUN ITS COURSE THIS MORNING AND
EVALUATE RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT DAYBREAK FOR
CHANGES.

WHILE THE SYSTEM LIGHT MIXED PCPN ENDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING
COLDER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN THE ATTENTION TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OVER VILAS COUNTY LATE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE AN INVERSION LOWERS AND WINDS TURN
MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WILL PUSH SNOW AMOUNTS OVER VILAS TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH MQT AND DLH...WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY LAKE SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

WARM START THIS AM WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THEN TURN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY BUT DRY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
CLIPPER. MODELS SHOWED DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THEY TAKE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z GEM-NH WERE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT APPEARED THAT THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING
SOUTHWARD BUT...BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GEM...AM NOT AS SURE
HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL GET. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE NGM AND EC FOR NOW. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE
EFFECT IN EASTERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE
MODELS LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...FOCUSING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES GET MUCH
COLDER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ013-
021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ005-010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KMKX 290918
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN WISCONSIN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WHILE ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TAKING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE EXITS THE FAR EAST WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE...THEN GOING NEUTRAL...WITH WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
MOVES OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ANOTHER VERY
WEAK AREA OF UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. DOWNWARD
MOTION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.

850/700 MB COOLING OCCURS TODAY. HOWEVER THE 700 MB RH IS RATHER
DRY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DRIES THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE COOLING...WE DO NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITE ZONE...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES THIS
MORNING.

925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...SO LOW CLOUD
CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH.

.SHORT TERM...

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND CLIPS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH THE NAM MORE MOIST AND THE GFS LESS SO. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS WEAK.

CANADIAN MODEL HAS LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM KEEPING MOST OF IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DRY. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS AROUND
30 ON SATURDAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLITUDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW...FROM TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AS WELL.

THUS...MOST OF THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN
THESE MODELS. THEY DO INDICATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHEAST WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND A MOIST DENDRITE ZONE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THERE IS DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH WOULD BE A
NEGATIVE.

THE NAM/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND CONTINUE TO BRING A SWATH OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WOULD BE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AS COLDER AIR IS ABSORBED INTO THE
AREA...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO INCREASE. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD RESULT IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

FOR NOW...WILL USE A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH
POPS...WHICH BRINGS DOWN THE POPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF FORECASTS. ALSO REDUCED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS A FAIR AMOUNT...GIVEN
THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FEATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IS SEEN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTED BY SATURATION AND DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE DENDRITE ZONE PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE QPF WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS WITH POPS.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TREND TOWARD COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COLD WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MAINLY
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. 925 MB RH REMAINS HIGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...SO CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
AROUND 9 AM CST BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 290543
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER
FEEL FOR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND
SCOUR THE FOG AND DZ EAST.

DRIZZLE COULD STILL FREEZE ON SURFACES/WINGS AS THE TEMPERATURE
IS RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY AT KRST. EXPECT A
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 5KFT OR 6KFT AGL
WHERE ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290543
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER
FEEL FOR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND
SCOUR THE FOG AND DZ EAST.

DRIZZLE COULD STILL FREEZE ON SURFACES/WINGS AS THE TEMPERATURE
IS RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY AT KRST. EXPECT A
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 5KFT OR 6KFT AGL
WHERE ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




000
FXUS63 KGRB 290429
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

KDLH AND KMPX RADARS SHOWING CLASSIC DZ/FZDZ SIGNATURE. THAT IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE KARX RADAR AS WELL. WISH
CONFIDENCE WERE HIGHER...BUT HAVE SEEN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING
WITH A ZR.Y FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA /TIMING IN CODING BELOW/.
ROADS COULD BE VERY SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...EVEN IF THE
FZDZ IS WINDING DOWN IN THE W BY THEN. PCPN MAY ALSO CHG TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HRS TOMORROW MORNING. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY
SLICK ROADS IF IT FALLS ON ICE FM THE FZDZ. PERHAPS A WW.Y WOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE WITH KEEP WITH THE
ZR.Y THAT OFFICES TO THE WEST ALREADY HAVE RUNNING.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE OUT ASAP.

COORD W MKX.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-021-
022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 290429
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1029 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

KDLH AND KMPX RADARS SHOWING CLASSIC DZ/FZDZ SIGNATURE. THAT IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE KARX RADAR AS WELL. WISH
CONFIDENCE WERE HIGHER...BUT HAVE SEEN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING
WITH A ZR.Y FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA /TIMING IN CODING BELOW/.
ROADS COULD BE VERY SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...EVEN IF THE
FZDZ IS WINDING DOWN IN THE W BY THEN. PCPN MAY ALSO CHG TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HRS TOMORROW MORNING. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY
SLICK ROADS IF IT FALLS ON ICE FM THE FZDZ. PERHAPS A WW.Y WOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE WITH KEEP WITH THE
ZR.Y THAT OFFICES TO THE WEST ALREADY HAVE RUNNING.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE OUT ASAP.

COORD W MKX.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CIGS IN THE W NOW MVFR...AND EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING THERE AS WELL
AS ACRS THE E...EVENTUALLY INTO THE THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. SOUNDINGS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-021-
022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KMKX 290354
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

PULLED BACK POPS THROUGH 06Z TO REFLECT THE NEED FOR DEEPER
SATURATION BEFORE PCPN CAN START OVER CWA. WHILE REGIONAL RADAR
RETURNS SHOW SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW REFLECTIVITY OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION INCLUDING SRN WI...THE ONLY GROUND TRUTH ARE DRIZZLE AND
UNKNOWN PCPN /UP/ REPORTS FROM OB SITES AROUND MSP AND NORTH OF
LA CROSSE. THESE REPORTS LINE UP WELL WITH PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR
THE LIGHT PCPN TO CROSS MAINLY CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT ON HI-RES/
RAPID UPDATE MODELS. THIS AREA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. LEFT LIKELY POPS THERE FOR HIGH PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE/LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING.

SOME ACCAS SPRINKLES ALSO REPORTED FROM AREA OF RADAR RETURNS IN
CENTRAL IL WITH CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN 9K AND 12K FT THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE IL OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRUSH THE FAR SE. WILL
NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z DATA TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS IN
THE EASTERN CWA NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE NORTH.

HAVE UPDATED THE SPS TO CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. WILL BE MONITORING UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY IF AREAS OF FZDZ/FZRA
BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE..

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO MVFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM LOW ENTERING NW IL
CROSSES SRN WI OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
FOCUS ON MAJORITY OF RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM KEEPS
THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF TAF SITES. COLD AIR ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH WILL TURN THE LIGHT PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SLEET BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. PCPN LOOKS TO END AFTER 15Z...BUT LATEST NAM
HINTING AT POCKETS OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT FROM TRAILING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE REGION. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE LOW DECK WONT BREAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z...AND POSSIBLY AFTER
03Z.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EASING FOR
A TIME AROUND 12Z AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE
LOW CENTER CROSSES WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN TURN NW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 15Z BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS..WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS
IS TO GO THE SPS ROUTE AS SURFACE TEMPS AND LONGEVITY OF WARM LAYER
KEEP CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY IN THE LOW CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 17C AT KOMA ON 12Z SOUNDING. SINCE
TEMPS ONLY GOT CLOSE TO MOS VALUES WE ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM
FREEZING. MESO MODELS SHOW ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP COVERAGE THUS THE LOW
POPS FROM THE CONSSHORT OUTPUT. MEANWHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE
UNIFORM LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SRN WI WITH HIGHER POPS. WARM LAYER
REACHES THE PEAK AROUND 6Z...THOUGH MODELS LARGELY DRY UNTIL THAT
POINT WITH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE OF
SHORTWAVE AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
WITH THICKER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SAT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI THU NGT WITH 925H TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND -14C...AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD
THERMAL TROF LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPS IN
THE AFTN.  FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP DAYTIME
TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S.

BRISK NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
WI LATER FRI NGT...WHICH GRAZES NORTHEAST CWA.  HESITANT AT THIS
POINT TO ADD ANY POPS AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER COLUMN
BELOW 5K FEET VS NAM.  WITH CORE OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
RH REMAINING FARTHER NORTH...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE TROF PASSES THRU ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.  DROPPED SCHC POPS AND EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS DUE TO PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST CONUS
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NRN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT NGT.
MEANWHILE...WEAK TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH SRN WI ON SAT WL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4 INCH WHICH IS APPROACHING 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR FEB 1.

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION SUN INTO
SUN NGT.  HOWEVER TREND FROM BOTH GFS AND EWCMF HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
FLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVE REMAINING WEAKER AS IT
SPEEDS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN/SUN NGT.  THIS GUIDANCE EMPHASIZING
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE UPPER
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA.  LATEST GEM MEANWHILE CONTINUES WETTER
AND SNOWIER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.  DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...WL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND DECREASE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES. COLDER AIR TO BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO WOULD
BE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOOKS COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPED ALONG BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN.  WEAK IMPULSES CAUGHT IN
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF -SN TO THE
AREA FROM MON THRU WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT -2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP
THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS DECK HAS LIFTED NORTH FROM SC WI
THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS AND IS THICKENING UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04 TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE
SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR
ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER
TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME SO A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF WI THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH SOME DRYING
AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.


MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SINCE LATE MORNING.  WINDS NOW FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LAKESHORE STATIONS.  ORE CARRIER PARKED IN MKE HARBOR
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KTS.  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NOW
THRU 03Z OR SO WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 30KTS.  ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO WINDS REEULTING IN BUILDING WAVES.

AS LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE MI LATER TNGT AND
PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST UPON TROF PASSAGE.  THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER THU MRNG AND LIKELY GUST TO 30-32 KTS AT TIMES AWAY FROM
SHORE.  HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE TNGT THRU THU.  STATUS QUO ON TIMING WITH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290354
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

PULLED BACK POPS THROUGH 06Z TO REFLECT THE NEED FOR DEEPER
SATURATION BEFORE PCPN CAN START OVER CWA. WHILE REGIONAL RADAR
RETURNS SHOW SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW REFLECTIVITY OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION INCLUDING SRN WI...THE ONLY GROUND TRUTH ARE DRIZZLE AND
UNKNOWN PCPN /UP/ REPORTS FROM OB SITES AROUND MSP AND NORTH OF
LA CROSSE. THESE REPORTS LINE UP WELL WITH PERSISTENT FOCUS FOR
THE LIGHT PCPN TO CROSS MAINLY CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT ON HI-RES/
RAPID UPDATE MODELS. THIS AREA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. LEFT LIKELY POPS THERE FOR HIGH PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE/LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING.

SOME ACCAS SPRINKLES ALSO REPORTED FROM AREA OF RADAR RETURNS IN
CENTRAL IL WITH CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN 9K AND 12K FT THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE IL OVERNIGHT AND COULD BRUSH THE FAR SE. WILL
NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z DATA TO SEE IF HIGHER POPS IN
THE EASTERN CWA NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK TO THE NORTH.

HAVE UPDATED THE SPS TO CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW. WILL BE MONITORING UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY IF AREAS OF FZDZ/FZRA
BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE..

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO MVFR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM LOW ENTERING NW IL
CROSSES SRN WI OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
FOCUS ON MAJORITY OF RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM KEEPS
THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF TAF SITES. COLD AIR ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH WILL TURN THE LIGHT PCPN TO LIGHT SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SLEET BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. PCPN LOOKS TO END AFTER 15Z...BUT LATEST NAM
HINTING AT POCKETS OF FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT FROM TRAILING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE REGION. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT KEEP MVFR CIGS IN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS
INDICATE LOW DECK WONT BREAK UNTIL AFTER 00Z...AND POSSIBLY AFTER
03Z.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EASING FOR
A TIME AROUND 12Z AS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE
LOW CENTER CROSSES WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN TURN NW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY BY 15Z BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS..WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS
IS TO GO THE SPS ROUTE AS SURFACE TEMPS AND LONGEVITY OF WARM LAYER
KEEP CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY IN THE LOW CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 17C AT KOMA ON 12Z SOUNDING. SINCE
TEMPS ONLY GOT CLOSE TO MOS VALUES WE ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM
FREEZING. MESO MODELS SHOW ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP COVERAGE THUS THE LOW
POPS FROM THE CONSSHORT OUTPUT. MEANWHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE
UNIFORM LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SRN WI WITH HIGHER POPS. WARM LAYER
REACHES THE PEAK AROUND 6Z...THOUGH MODELS LARGELY DRY UNTIL THAT
POINT WITH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE OF
SHORTWAVE AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
WITH THICKER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SAT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI THU NGT WITH 925H TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND -14C...AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD
THERMAL TROF LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPS IN
THE AFTN.  FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP DAYTIME
TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S.

BRISK NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
WI LATER FRI NGT...WHICH GRAZES NORTHEAST CWA.  HESITANT AT THIS
POINT TO ADD ANY POPS AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER COLUMN
BELOW 5K FEET VS NAM.  WITH CORE OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
RH REMAINING FARTHER NORTH...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE TROF PASSES THRU ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.  DROPPED SCHC POPS AND EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS DUE TO PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST CONUS
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NRN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT NGT.
MEANWHILE...WEAK TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH SRN WI ON SAT WL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4 INCH WHICH IS APPROACHING 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR FEB 1.

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION SUN INTO
SUN NGT.  HOWEVER TREND FROM BOTH GFS AND EWCMF HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
FLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVE REMAINING WEAKER AS IT
SPEEDS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN/SUN NGT.  THIS GUIDANCE EMPHASIZING
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE UPPER
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA.  LATEST GEM MEANWHILE CONTINUES WETTER
AND SNOWIER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.  DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...WL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND DECREASE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES. COLDER AIR TO BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO WOULD
BE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOOKS COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPED ALONG BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN.  WEAK IMPULSES CAUGHT IN
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF -SN TO THE
AREA FROM MON THRU WED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT -2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP
THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS DECK HAS LIFTED NORTH FROM SC WI
THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS AND IS THICKENING UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04 TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE
SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR
ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER
TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME SO A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF WI THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH SOME DRYING
AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.


MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SINCE LATE MORNING.  WINDS NOW FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LAKESHORE STATIONS.  ORE CARRIER PARKED IN MKE HARBOR
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KTS.  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NOW
THRU 03Z OR SO WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 30KTS.  ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO WINDS REEULTING IN BUILDING WAVES.

AS LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE MI LATER TNGT AND
PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST UPON TROF PASSAGE.  THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER THU MRNG AND LIKELY GUST TO 30-32 KTS AT TIMES AWAY FROM
SHORE.  HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE TNGT THRU THU.  STATUS QUO ON TIMING WITH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 290303 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
903 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

KDLH AND KMPX RADARS SHOWING CLASSIC DZ/FZDZ SIGNATURE. THAT IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE KARX RADAR AS WELL. WISH
CONFIDENCE WERE HIGHER...BUT HAVE SEEN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING
WITH A ZR.Y FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA /TIMING IN CODING BELOW/.
ROADS COULD BE VERY SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...EVEN IF THE
FZDZ IS WINDING DOWN IN THE W BY THEN. PCPN MAY ALSO CHG TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HRS TOMORROW MORNING. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY
SLICK ROADS IF IT FALLS ON ICE FM THE FZDZ. PERHAPS A WW.Y WOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE WITH KEEP WITH THE
ZR.Y THAT OFFICES TO THE WEST ALREADY HAVE RUNNING.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE OUT ASAP.

COORD W MKX.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 290303 AAA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
903 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

KDLH AND KMPX RADARS SHOWING CLASSIC DZ/FZDZ SIGNATURE. THAT IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON THE KARX RADAR AS WELL. WISH
CONFIDENCE WERE HIGHER...BUT HAVE SEEN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GOING
WITH A ZR.Y FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA /TIMING IN CODING BELOW/.
ROADS COULD BE VERY SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...EVEN IF THE
FZDZ IS WINDING DOWN IN THE W BY THEN. PCPN MAY ALSO CHG TO SNOW
FOR A COUPLE HRS TOMORROW MORNING. THAT WOULD MAKE FOR ESPECIALLY
SLICK ROADS IF IT FALLS ON ICE FM THE FZDZ. PERHAPS A WW.Y WOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE WITH KEEP WITH THE
ZR.Y THAT OFFICES TO THE WEST ALREADY HAVE RUNNING.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE OUT ASAP.

COORD W MKX.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-021-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018>020-030-031-035>037-045.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KARX 290252
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY
EXPANSION PRIOR TO 10 PM NEWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290252
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY
EXPANSION PRIOR TO 10 PM NEWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290252
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY
EXPANSION PRIOR TO 10 PM NEWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290252
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY
EXPANSION PRIOR TO 10 PM NEWS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD
SEE A BIT OF GLAZING FROM FZDZ.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD
SEE A BIT OF GLAZING FROM FZDZ.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD
SEE A BIT OF GLAZING FROM FZDZ.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KARX 290006
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SOME CLEARING HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS DRIER WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE A DELAY TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES OF SEVERAL HOURS AND THUS HAVE MOVED THE TIMING BACK 2 HOURS
WITH THE RECENT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLSE AND KRST. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KRST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION OCCURRING AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF IOWA
TOWARD CHICAGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD ADVECT THE AIR MASS CONDITIONS EAST INTO
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAST THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR STREAM MOVING IN OVER THE PAST HOURS FROM
EASTERN WI. FURTHER TAF UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH TEMPERATURES NOW 33F AND 36F AT KRST AND KLSE
RESPECTIVELY...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE DZ SHOULD IT OCCUR
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF FALL ARE
NEEDED AT KRST TO GET SOME ICING. DRIER AIR FLOW AND THINNER
CLOUDS COULD PROMOTE A BIT MORE ICING CHANCE SHOULD DZ OCCUR...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL A BIT MORE WITH LESS CLOUD...THEN WITH
ANY DZ ONSET /COOL TO BELOW FREEZING WET-BULB/. EVEN KLSE WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT AS 00Z 36F/23F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT MEANS
WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. SO SATURATION WILL
BE A BATTLE IN LOW LEVELS DUE TO DRY AIR...BUT IF IT WINS...COULD
SEE A BIT OF GLAZING FROM FZDZ.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



000
FXUS63 KGRB 282307
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
507 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI









000
FXUS63 KGRB 282307
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
507 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ WHEN ASCENT
INCREASES IN THE LATE EVENING. BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW MUCH PCPN WL
OCCUR. NOTHING NOTED ON NEARBY SFC OBS NOW...THOUGH SOME FZDZ
LIKELY OCCURRING BACK IN ERN ND. MID-LVL RETURNS ALSO INCRG SOME
ON KDLH RADAR...WHICH MAY INDICATE A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SEEDING WITH ICE CRYSTALS THAN THE FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST.
WL CONT TO MONITOR THE SITN THIS EVENING...AND AM PREPARED TO
ISSUE A HEADLINE IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT A SUFFICENT
AMNTS OF PCPN WL FALL AS FZDZ. WL CONT TO HANDLE WITH SPS UNTIL
THAT POINT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES FAIRLY
QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES.
SOUNDINGS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ...AT LEAST UNTIL SFC TROF SHIFTS
E OF THE AREA AND MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THU IN CAA REGIME.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI










000
FXUS63 KARX 282128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 3 PM...SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST OF HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIKE THE
28.00Z AND 28.06Z MODELS...THE 28.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...MODERATE TO STRONG
925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB.
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THAT THERE IS NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE FROM
ALOFT...THUS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS. THERE WERE A FEW -8C SHOWING AT TIMES...SO TOTALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEING DRIZZLE...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WEST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE SNOW PACK. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 AM FOR THESE AREAS. ONLY A LIGHT
GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES.

ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MODERATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 282128
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 3 PM...SURFACE LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST OF HUDSON BAY. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...
A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LIKE THE
28.00Z AND 28.06Z MODELS...THE 28.12Z MODELS SHOW THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES...MODERATE TO STRONG
925 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE AIR MASS BELOW 800 MB.
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THAT THERE IS NO INTRODUCTION OF ICE FROM
ALOFT...THUS KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF SUPER COOLED
WATER DROPLETS. THERE WERE A FEW -8C SHOWING AT TIMES...SO TOTALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ACCUMULATE. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEING DRIZZLE...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW COLD WILL BE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FILTERED SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WEST
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT THERE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. MEANWHILE NORTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. THIS IS
DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BLOWING OVER THE SNOW PACK. WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 AM FOR THESE AREAS. ONLY A LIGHT
GLAZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES.

ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME MODERATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH THE SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
ERODE DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...THE MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 950 AND 900 MB. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DTJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 282112
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS
IS TO GO THE SPS ROUTE AS SURFACE TEMPS AND LONGEVITY OF WARM LAYER
KEEP CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY IN THE LOW CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 17C AT KOMA ON 12Z SOUNDING. SINCE
TEMPS ONLY GOT CLOSE TO MOS VALUES WE ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM
FREEZING. MESO MODELS SHOW ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP COVERAGE THUS THE LOW
POPS FROM THE CONSSHORT OUTPUT. MEANWHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE
UNIFORM LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SRN WI WITH HIGHER POPS. WARM LAYER
REACHES THE PEAK AROUND 6Z...THOUGH MODELS LARGELY DRY UNTIL THAT
POINT WITH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE OF
SHORTWAVE AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
WITH THICKER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SAT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI THU NGT WITH 925H TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND -14C...AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD
THERMAL TROF LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPS IN
THE AFTN.  FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP DAYTIME
TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S.

BRISK NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
WI LATER FRI NGT...WHICH GRAZES NORTHEAST CWA.  HESITANT AT THIS
POINT TO ADD ANY POPS AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER COLUMN
BELOW 5K FEET VS NAM.  WITH CORE OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
RH REMAINING FARTHER NORTH...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE TROF PASSES THRU ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.  DROPPED SCHC POPS AND EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS DUE TO PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST CONUS
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NRN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT NGT.
MEANWHILE...WEAK TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH SRN WI ON SAT WL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4 INCH WHICH IS APPROACHING 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR FEB 1.

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION SUN INTO
SUN NGT.  HOWEVER TREND FROM BOTH GFS AND EWCMF HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
FLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVE REMAINING WEAKER AS IT
SPEEDS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN/SUN NGT.  THIS GUIDANCE EMPHASIZING
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE UPPER
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA.  LATEST GEM MEANWHILE CONTINUES WETTER
AND SNOWIER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.  DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...WL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND DECREASE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES. COLDER AIR TO BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO WOULD
BE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOOKS COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPED ALONG BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN.  WEAK IMPULSES CAUGHT IN
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF -SN TO THE
AREA FROM MON THRU WED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT -2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP
THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS DECK HAS LIFTED NORTH FROM SC WI
THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS AND IS THICKENING UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04 TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE
SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR
ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER
TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME SO A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF WI THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH SOME DRYING
AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SINCE LATE MORNING.  WINDS NOW FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LAKESHORE STATIONS.  ORE CARRIER PARKED IN MKE HARBOR
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KTS.  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NOW
THRU 03Z OR SO WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 30KTS.  ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO WINDS REEULTING IN BUILDING WAVES.

AS LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE MI LATER TNGT AND
PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST UPON TROF PASSAGE.  THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER THU MRNG AND LIKELY GUST TO 30-32 KTS AT TIMES AWAY FROM
SHORE.  HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE TNGT THRU THU.  STATUS QUO ON TIMING WITH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/AVIATION....PC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/MARINE...MBK



000
FXUS63 KMKX 282112
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

FOCUS IS ON PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS
IS TO GO THE SPS ROUTE AS SURFACE TEMPS AND LONGEVITY OF WARM LAYER
KEEP CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY IN THE LOW CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 17C AT KOMA ON 12Z SOUNDING. SINCE
TEMPS ONLY GOT CLOSE TO MOS VALUES WE ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM
FREEZING. MESO MODELS SHOW ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP COVERAGE THUS THE LOW
POPS FROM THE CONSSHORT OUTPUT. MEANWHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE
UNIFORM LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SRN WI WITH HIGHER POPS. WARM LAYER
REACHES THE PEAK AROUND 6Z...THOUGH MODELS LARGELY DRY UNTIL THAT
POINT WITH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE OF
SHORTWAVE AND BETTER DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
WITH THICKER CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SAT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI THU NGT WITH 925H TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND -14C...AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD
THERMAL TROF LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPS IN
THE AFTN.  FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP DAYTIME
TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S.

BRISK NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CARRY MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
WI LATER FRI NGT...WHICH GRAZES NORTHEAST CWA.  HESITANT AT THIS
POINT TO ADD ANY POPS AS GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING MUCH DRIER COLUMN
BELOW 5K FEET VS NAM.  WITH CORE OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
RH REMAINING FARTHER NORTH...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST.

WEAK SURFACE TROF PASSES THRU ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS
DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.  DROPPED SCHC POPS AND EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS DUE TO PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWEST CONUS
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NRN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SAT NGT.
MEANWHILE...WEAK TROF THAT PASSED THROUGH SRN WI ON SAT WL HAVE
RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4 INCH WHICH IS APPROACHING 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR FEB 1.

CENTRAL PLAINS SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION SUN INTO
SUN NGT.  HOWEVER TREND FROM BOTH GFS AND EWCMF HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
FLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORT WAVE REMAINING WEAKER AS IT
SPEEDS OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUN/SUN NGT.  THIS GUIDANCE EMPHASIZING
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE UPPER
UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA.  LATEST GEM MEANWHILE CONTINUES WETTER
AND SNOWIER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY.  DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY...WL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS AND DECREASE POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO SEVERAL
INCHES. COLDER AIR TO BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION SO WOULD
BE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOOKS COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK HELPED ALONG BY FRESH SNOW COVER.
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN.  WEAK IMPULSES CAUGHT IN
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF -SN TO THE
AREA FROM MON THRU WED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT -2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP
THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS DECK HAS LIFTED NORTH FROM SC WI
THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS AND IS THICKENING UP. STILL
LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04 TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE
SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR
ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER
TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME SO A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP SHIFTS EAST OF WI THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH SOME DRYING
AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
SINCE LATE MORNING.  WINDS NOW FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LAKESHORE STATIONS.  ORE CARRIER PARKED IN MKE HARBOR
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KTS.  STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NOW
THRU 03Z OR SO WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 30KTS.  ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO WINDS REEULTING IN BUILDING WAVES.

AS LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES WESTERN LAKE MI LATER TNGT AND
PASSES TO THE EAST EARLY THU...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST UPON TROF PASSAGE.  THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER THU MRNG AND LIKELY GUST TO 30-32 KTS AT TIMES AWAY FROM
SHORE.  HOWEVER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE TNGT THRU THU.  STATUS QUO ON TIMING WITH CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/AVIATION....PC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/MARINE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KGRB 282033
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282033
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282033
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KGRB 282033
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MODEST
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MIXED PCPN EVENT TO NE WI. MAIN FCST ISSUE ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE
THE PCPN TYPE AND THEN EXTENT OF ANY ICING THAT WOULD WARRANT A
HEADLINE.

THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONNECTED BY A CDFNT THAT EXTENDED SWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. A
BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS BROUGHT MILD AIR INTO
WI WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE JANUARY. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER NE WI AS THE LOW CLOUDS FROM
THIS MORNING HAD MAINLY DISSIPATED.

AFTER A QUIET START TO THE NGT...FCST TO BECOME QUITE COMPLICATED
FROM LATE EVENING FORWARD AS THE SFC CDFNT/MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSH ACROSS WI. THE BIG PROBLEM IS A LACK OF SATURATION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...THUS A LACK OF ICE BEING INTRODUCED AND LEADING
TO SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS REACHING TOWARD THE SFC. THERE IS ALSO
A DRY WEDGE OF AIR FCST BY THE MODELS AROUND 7H THAT HAS TO BE
OVERCOME. BASED ON THE NEW DATA...EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BEING THE PRIMARY FCST TYPE BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE TNGT BEHIND THE CDFNT AS CAA TAKES OVER. NOT CONFIDENT
ENUF ABOUT QPF AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME...THUS WL
ISSUE A SPS STATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF MUCH TNGT AS WAA CONTS TO PUSH
INTO WI AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. LOOK FOR MINS TO MAINLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPR 20S.

FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING UNTIL THE
SHORTWAVE TROF DEPARTS THE AREA. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THU WL BE
THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS N-CNTRL WI AS CAA SENDS 8H TEMPS
DOWN TO ALMOST -20C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TRAJS BECOME
FAVORABLE. THE ONLY REAL NEGATIVE LOOKS TO BE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR NW SECTIONS OF VILAS CNTY...BUT KEPT ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS TO STILL BE REASONABLY MILD
(MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM START TO THE DAY) WITH READINGS IN THE UPR
20S NORTH...MID 30S E-CNTRL. THESE MAX TEMPS COULD TOP OUT AROUND
MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DELTA T/S AROUND 20...FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. RAISED POPS OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WI AND INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...KEEPING ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
STATE...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO WILL MENTION A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE CLIPPER...TRIGGERING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WAS LOOKING
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME KIND OF STORM TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING ACCUMULATING SOUTH TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 12Z ECMWF COMPLETELY JUMPED SHIP AND
NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW FOR WI.
THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WI. GEM IS STILL ON BOARD WITH A MORE
WRAPPED UP SYSTEM AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE STATE...
AND LINGER THE SNOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL LET THE MODELS TRY
TO GET ON THE SAME PAGE...AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO WHATEVER SYSTEM
MATERIALIZES...AND CONFINE THE POPS TO SUNDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH LOWS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KARX 281742
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES...AND
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE LATEST 28.12Z NAM/GFS AND 28.15Z RAP ARE INDICATING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO BOTH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AND
ABOVE FREEZING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND
THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
ALL LIQUID AND DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES
FROM 02Z THURSDAY INTO 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY...DID NOT INTRODUCE INTO
THE TAFS.

NEXT CONCERN ARE LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL HOVER IN
THE LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT RST...AS CEILINGS CURRENTLY BELOW 500
FEET AND RISE INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SUNSET CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 500 FEET THIS EVENING. AT THE LSE TAF SITE CEILINGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 500-1000 FEET RANGE AROUND 02Z AND RISE BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AROUND 09Z THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 09-12Z THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
THE BACKSIDE AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. HAVE INTRODUCE WIND
GUST OF 27 KNOTS AT RST TAF SITE AND 23 KNOTS AT LSE TAF SITE AT
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...DTJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 281738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK






000
FXUS63 KGRB 281738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SURGE OF WAA BRINGING MID/HI CLOUD DECK ACROSS NE WI THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/LOW MVFR CIG STRATUS DECK MAY BREAK FOR A BRIEF
TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
GRADUALLY DROP TOWARD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AS A CDFNT
MOVES SE ACROSS WI. PCPN CHCS TO GO UP TNGT AS THE FNT APPROACHES
AND FCST SNDNGS INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
OCCUR BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CONDITIONS THU AFTERNOON AS HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK







000
FXUS63 KMKX 281656
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT
-2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS BLOB
LIFTING NORTH FROM SC WI THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS
AND IS THICKENING UP SOMEWHAT. STILL LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04
TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES
APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS
ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD
COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER
WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME. WARM LAYER MOST PRONOUNCED PRIOR
TO PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH
SOME DRYING AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...POSTPONED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEVERAL HOURS AS NEW
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DELAY START OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
GUSTY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. NEVER THE
LESS...STILL EXPECT RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATER THIS AFTN THRU THE EVE. AS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE MI LATE TNGT AND EARLY THU...A LULL IN
THE WINDS IS EXPECTED BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING LATER IN THE MRNG. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE HIGH WAVES THIS AFTN BUT WL SUBSIDE A BIT ON THU AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND BECOME OFFSHORE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS THAT REACHES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. A
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPWARD MOTION
STRENGTHENS BY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN LATE.

700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS
BY EVENING BEFORE COOLING TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 CELSIUS OVER SHEBOYGAN
AND 10 CELSIUS JUST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS EVENING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 6
AM CST THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850
MB TROUGH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

AFTER AN INITIAL MID LEVEL BAND OF CLOUDS PUSH EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING THE 700 MB LAYER DRIES AND NEVER SATURATES COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...BUT DOES COME CLOSE OVER THE FAR EAST. 925/850 MB LAYERS
DO SATURATE RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN MOIST
LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 6 AM CST THURSDAY.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MOST OF THE NIGHT.
EVEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NAM HAS TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS FROM 6 TO 8 THSD FT OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
NORTH. DURING THE TIME OF BEST LIFT THE SOUNDINGS ARE STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING SATURATED...AND BY THE TIME IT DOES THE
LIFT IS WEAKENING. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OF
MEASURING WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL LIKELY BE JUST ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL.

DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE...AND LATER OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WILL
OPT TO NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS
TO FORM...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET CHANCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY BE WARM ENOUGH
STILL IN THE MORNING FOR A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SLEET MIX. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY AIR SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS THEN SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
OTHER MODELS DRY...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THEY HAVE
TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TRACKS...THOUGH STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACKS. BOTH
MODELS DO BRING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.

THIS RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USING THE EXPECTED
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...THINKING A 4 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE. THIS CERTAINLY COULD BE AN ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT AT
THIS POINT...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY SHOULD
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN BECOME MORE DIFFERENT
WITH FEATURES INTO TUESDAY. USED CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURES INTO
TUESDAY FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MAY
SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR THEN IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF MADISON.

MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE
WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS...AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS RISE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD



000
FXUS63 KMKX 281656
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...IMPRESSIVE WAA WITH KOMA AT 17C AND KGRB AT
-2C. CIRRUS RIDING ATOP THE STRATUS DECK IN SC WI. STRATUS BLOB
LIFTING NORTH FROM SC WI THOUGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS
AND IS THICKENING UP SOMEWHAT. STILL LOOKING FOR A RENEWED SURGE
OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF WI. MODELS SETTLING ON ABOUT 0.04
TO 0.06 IN LIQUID PRECIP. LITTLE SATURATION IN DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE SO SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE KEY FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP. DOES
APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR THAT POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS
ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND CLOUD
COVER. COLD ADVECTION DOES COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT SO WARM LAYER
WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING WITH TIME. WARM LAYER MOST PRONOUNCED PRIOR
TO PRECIP ONSET. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AS DAY GOES ON WITH
SOME DRYING AFTER PRECIP...THOUGH LLVL RH PROGS KEEP CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...POSTPONED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEVERAL HOURS AS NEW
SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DELAY START OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
GUSTY WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. NEVER THE
LESS...STILL EXPECT RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CAUSE
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS LATER THIS AFTN THRU THE EVE. AS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LAKE MI LATE TNGT AND EARLY THU...A LULL IN
THE WINDS IS EXPECTED BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING LATER IN THE MRNG. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CAUSE HIGH WAVES THIS AFTN BUT WL SUBSIDE A BIT ON THU AS WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AND BECOME OFFSHORE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS THAT REACHES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. A
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPWARD MOTION
STRENGTHENS BY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN LATE.

700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS
BY EVENING BEFORE COOLING TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 CELSIUS OVER SHEBOYGAN
AND 10 CELSIUS JUST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS EVENING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 6
AM CST THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850
MB TROUGH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

AFTER AN INITIAL MID LEVEL BAND OF CLOUDS PUSH EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING THE 700 MB LAYER DRIES AND NEVER SATURATES COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...BUT DOES COME CLOSE OVER THE FAR EAST. 925/850 MB LAYERS
DO SATURATE RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN MOIST
LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 6 AM CST THURSDAY.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MOST OF THE NIGHT.
EVEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NAM HAS TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS FROM 6 TO 8 THSD FT OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
NORTH. DURING THE TIME OF BEST LIFT THE SOUNDINGS ARE STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING SATURATED...AND BY THE TIME IT DOES THE
LIFT IS WEAKENING. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OF
MEASURING WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL LIKELY BE JUST ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL.

DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE...AND LATER OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WILL
OPT TO NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS
TO FORM...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET CHANCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY BE WARM ENOUGH
STILL IN THE MORNING FOR A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SLEET MIX. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY AIR SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS THEN SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
OTHER MODELS DRY...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THEY HAVE
TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TRACKS...THOUGH STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACKS. BOTH
MODELS DO BRING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.

THIS RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USING THE EXPECTED
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...THINKING A 4 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE. THIS CERTAINLY COULD BE AN ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT AT
THIS POINT...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY SHOULD
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN BECOME MORE DIFFERENT
WITH FEATURES INTO TUESDAY. USED CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURES INTO
TUESDAY FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MAY
SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR THEN IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF MADISON.

MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE
WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS...AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS RISE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KARX 281145
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. CONDITIONS ARE IFR TO LIFR AT RST AND ALMOST IFR AT LSE
AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY AS
THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS ERODING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA. PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS EROSION WOULD BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO RST/LSE AROUND 21Z. DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES WITH THE ICING POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON
WHAT TEMPERATURES DO THIS AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN 9PM AND
3AM. EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL DROP AS THIS DRIZZLE BEGINS WITH
IFR LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH



000
FXUS63 KGRB 281131
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
531 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CLOUDS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM IFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG WERE NOTED OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE DRY DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION CONTINUES TO HOLD OFF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TODAY MAY LEAD TO
A TREND OF ERODING IFR OR MVFR CIGS FURTHER WEST TODAY. IFR/MVFR
CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LIGHT
MIX OF SNOW..SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME TOTAL
ACCUM APPEARS TO BE MINOR. LLWS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH







000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KARX 280932
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG-
PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN
AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD
DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY
AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE
OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE
MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC
TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR
KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG
UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN.
LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH
DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN
THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO
ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/
-FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE
MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE
ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY
TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE
DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY
AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ
CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD.

28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR
HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST
CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.

THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/
FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE
MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU
NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC-
850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT.
USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU
FRI NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE.

28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE
STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN
MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL
DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING
PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING
COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA
FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW
MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE
GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP
OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT
WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE
-15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....RIECK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280921
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS THAT REACHES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. A
RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPWARD MOTION
STRENGTHENS BY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN LATE.

700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS
BY EVENING BEFORE COOLING TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WARM AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 CELSIUS OVER SHEBOYGAN
AND 10 CELSIUS JUST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS EVENING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 6
AM CST THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE 850
MB TROUGH AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

AFTER AN INITIAL MID LEVEL BAND OF CLOUDS PUSH EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING THE 700 MB LAYER DRIES AND NEVER SATURATES COMPLETELY
TONIGHT...BUT DOES COME CLOSE OVER THE FAR EAST. 925/850 MB LAYERS
DO SATURATE RATHER QUICKLY LATE IN THE EVENING AND REMAIN MOIST
LATE TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 6 AM CST THURSDAY.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MOST OF THE NIGHT.
EVEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE NAM HAS TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS FROM 6 TO 8 THSD FT OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
NORTH. DURING THE TIME OF BEST LIFT THE SOUNDINGS ARE STILL IN
THE PROCESS OF BECOMING SATURATED...AND BY THE TIME IT DOES THE
LIFT IS WEAKENING. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OF
MEASURING WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL LIKELY BE JUST ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL.

DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE...AND LATER OCCURRENCE TONIGHT WILL
OPT TO NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKING IN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS
TO FORM...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET CHANCE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY BE WARM ENOUGH
STILL IN THE MORNING FOR A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SLEET MIX. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THURSDAY MORNING.

DRY AIR SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY...BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS THEN SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
OTHER MODELS DRY...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THEY HAVE
TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TRACKS...THOUGH STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACKS. BOTH
MODELS DO BRING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING
IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.

THIS RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. USING THE EXPECTED
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...THINKING A 4 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE. THIS CERTAINLY COULD BE AN ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT AT
THIS POINT...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY SHOULD
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION. WINDS WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN BECOME MORE DIFFERENT
WITH FEATURES INTO TUESDAY. USED CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPERATURES INTO
TUESDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MAY
SCATTER OUT DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR THEN IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE
WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS...AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE AS THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS RISE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KGRB 280911
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280911
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KGRB 280911
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







000
FXUS63 KGRB 280911
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTED OVER THE STATE. ANY CLEARING WILL BE BRIEF
AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER AREAS TO THE WEST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TODAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL INCREASE THE INVERSION AND LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS...SO LITTLE DROP OFF OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER AIR ALOFT FROM 850-700 MB
PRODUCES THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT...PCPN TYPE. BLEND OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LIGHT MIX OF ZR-IP-S- THIS EVENING
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH SATURATION OF THE COLUMN TO LOWER THE WET BULB TEMP. DUE TO A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN TONIGHT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
LATER EVENING AT THIS TIME.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS TO
THE EAST. COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHWEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OR EARLY DAY
HIGHS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NOAM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
SYSTEM...BUT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WILL
LEAD TO A DRY DAY WITH UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MODELS SHOWED A CLIPPER SYSTEM STRIKING A GLANCING BLOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR NOW. COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
LOOKED FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE EC HAS THE SYSTEM DEPARTING MUCH MORE
QUICKLY AND DOES NOT BRING QPF AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
REMAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MODEL BLEND IS CLOSER TO
THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SO HAVE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KARX 280506
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON THE INCOMING
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 27.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING TWO SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAVE IS
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WHILE THE SECOND IS COMING ONTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK EAST...TOPPING THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS OF NOW...THE MODELS
DO NOT PHASE THESE TWO SHORT WAVES AND BRING THEM THROUGH
SEPARATELY. TWO ROUNDS OF PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER
SHOULD OCCUR AND BOTH BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE TIED TO THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD
BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM
1000-300 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE QG CONVERGENCE THEN BECOMES
WEAK IN STRENGTH AND LIMITED TO THE 500-300 MB LAYER OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND WAVE SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION. A BAND OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE BEST ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 UBAR/S
OCCURRING ON THE 285K SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL ON THIS SURFACE INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORCING EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE NAM AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY ICE WILL BE IN THE
CLOUDS DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
DRIZZLE BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE SATURATION LAYER EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET WITH
SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER TO PRODUCE THE DRIZZLE BUT THIS LAYER
LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN DROPS. HAVE RAISED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SATURATION OCCURRING WILL BE.
ALSO BUMPED UP THE CHANCES A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT
CONCERNED THAT THESE CHANCES WILL HAVE TO GO HIGHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALSO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT AND THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IF AN ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY...IT WILL COME DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
MAY NOT DIP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT RESULTING IN
MORE DRIZZLE THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE TEMPERATURES COULD BE BELOW FREEZING MUCH LONGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A LARGE CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND ACTUALLY GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
INCREASES AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
27.12Z ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. ALL THESE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE...THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER OR EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF
LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THE WAVE AND THUS SHOWS THE MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND HAS THE
LEAST WHILE THE GEM IS IN THE MIDDLE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS
DOES A DECENT JOB OF AVERAGING OUT THESE DIFFERENCES AND GIVES
ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY AND 30 TO 40
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING
UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN.

MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC
LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION
INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT
KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...RIECK



000
FXUS63 KGRB 280436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN.  BUT DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN AWFULLY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE VERY SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIGHTENS AND
BACKS TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS WILL ACCELERATE
CLEARING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.  OTHERWISE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD AND TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING THEN RETREAT BACK EAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. FARTHER
WEST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND TRENDS OVER
THE U.P. SUPPORT THAT CLOUDS WILL JUST ROTATE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A
LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  AS A RESULT...INCREASED SKY COVER.
THEN OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND ANY CLEARING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD GO BACK
TO BROKEN OR OVERCAST.  TRENDED WARMER WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  AN 850MB WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAKING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR AROUND 10KFT THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.  HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO IT WILL
BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SOME SNOW. THE FIRST IS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS EAST OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE SNOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MIGHT BEGIN AS SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN.  BUT DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN AWFULLY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE VERY SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIGHTENS AND
BACKS TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS WILL ACCELERATE
CLEARING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.  OTHERWISE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD AND TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING THEN RETREAT BACK EAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. FARTHER
WEST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND TRENDS OVER
THE U.P. SUPPORT THAT CLOUDS WILL JUST ROTATE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A
LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  AS A RESULT...INCREASED SKY COVER.
THEN OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND ANY CLEARING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD GO BACK
TO BROKEN OR OVERCAST.  TRENDED WARMER WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  AN 850MB WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAKING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR AROUND 10KFT THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.  HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO IT WILL
BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SOME SNOW. THE FIRST IS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS EAST OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE SNOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MIGHT BEGIN AS SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN.  BUT DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN AWFULLY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE VERY SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIGHTENS AND
BACKS TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS WILL ACCELERATE
CLEARING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.  OTHERWISE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD AND TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING THEN RETREAT BACK EAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. FARTHER
WEST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND TRENDS OVER
THE U.P. SUPPORT THAT CLOUDS WILL JUST ROTATE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A
LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  AS A RESULT...INCREASED SKY COVER.
THEN OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND ANY CLEARING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD GO BACK
TO BROKEN OR OVERCAST.  TRENDED WARMER WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  AN 850MB WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAKING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR AROUND 10KFT THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.  HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO IT WILL
BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SOME SNOW. THE FIRST IS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS EAST OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE SNOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MIGHT BEGIN AS SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KGRB 280436
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE STATE
OF WISCONSIN.  BUT DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS SHARPENING OVER NE
WISCONSIN...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN AWFULLY DIFFICULT TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ARE VERY SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LIGHTENS AND
BACKS TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THINK THIS WILL ACCELERATE
CLEARING OVER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.  OTHERWISE...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...CLOUD AND TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING THEN RETREAT BACK EAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. FARTHER
WEST...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND TRENDS OVER
THE U.P. SUPPORT THAT CLOUDS WILL JUST ROTATE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A
LOW OVERCAST DECK IN PLACE.  AS A RESULT...INCREASED SKY COVER.
THEN OVERNIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE RETURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND ANY CLEARING OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SHOULD GO BACK
TO BROKEN OR OVERCAST.  TRENDED WARMER WITH LOW TEMPS DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY SURGE INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH SHOULD ERODE ANY REMAINING LOW OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.  AN 850MB WARM FRONT WILL
BE MAKING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY
AIR AROUND 10KFT THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA DRY.  HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO IT WILL
BE GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. THERE ARE AT LEAST TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SOME SNOW. THE FIRST IS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS JET
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS EAST OF WISCONSIN. THEREFORE SNOW
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MIGHT BEGIN AS SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. MILD PACIFIC AIR
WILL BRING US WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW CLDS ACTUALLY DISSIPATED IN FAR ERN WI FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTG BACK TO LIGHT SWLY...THEY
SHOULD EXPAND BACK ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN OVERNIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL MID-DAY OR AFTN TOMORROW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








000
FXUS63 KMKX 280300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO DROP. THIS TEMP FALL WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MID DECK
MOVING OVER. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL IA HOLDING
STEADY...IF NOT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOKS AS IF MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN FAR SE WI. SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
FAR SE WI CLEARING TOWARDS KUES AND KMKE...BUT UNCERTAIN IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK THERE PER LATEST LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS WHICH
FAVOR SW WI FOR EROSION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT
KENW OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE AFTER DAY BREAK WITH MIXING AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RISING TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR-GALE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS SUGGEST A LOT OF THIS DECK ERODES FAIRLY QUICKLY. STARTING TO SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE BUT IT IS QUITE GRADUAL. WILL STICK TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH PROXIMITY OF HIGH WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INVERSION HANGING TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE EAST HAS SLOWED AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING
WILL BE IN EASTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE LOWS A BIT LOWER THERE. SHOULD CLOUDS
CLEAR FURTHER TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS WI DURG THE DAY. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS LEADS TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA BY
DAYS END. LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH 925 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASING TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 930-940 MILLIBARS.
THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER MAX TEMPS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
LEANING MORE TOWARDS MOS FOR NOW OR A SMIDGE HIGHER. PRECARIOUS FORECAST
THOUGH AS UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE SUNSHINE AND NO SNOWCOVER ARE WELL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS WRN IA INTO NW MO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...EXCEEDING 4C IN SOME PLACES...INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUBUQUE TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. A COMPLEX MERGING OF MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME AS WELL. SO FAR PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO RESULT IN SOME SORT OF ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME.
WON/T ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME...JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER GOING
FORWARD.

COLD AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL TRANSITION THE MIX OVER
TO ALL SNOW...IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS...AS IT ENDS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING IT DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
IF THE TRACK SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WE WOULD NEED TO INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS A FEW MORE INCHES. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A BIG
STORM...EVEN IF IT COMES FARTHER NORTH. BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING MORE THAN OUR USUAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WE/VE SEEN THIS
WINTER. DON/T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS ONE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE OUR COLD BLAST BACK IN NOVEMBER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THOUGH APPEARS THE
DRYING TREND IS TOO QUICK ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WI.
SEEING SOME CLEARING IN THE EAST THOUGH THIS IS FILLING RIGHT BACK IN
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KSBM AREA.
AREAS OF IFR FOG/LIFR CIGS IN PARTS OF SC WI EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LLVL
RH INCREASING INTO WRN CWA DURG THE AFTN/EVE. SURFACE LOW ARRIVES FOR
WED NGT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP.

MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD WHEN WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE FLOW
BEING ONSHORE SOME HIGHER WAVES ARE LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO DROP. THIS TEMP FALL WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MID DECK
MOVING OVER. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL IA HOLDING
STEADY...IF NOT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOKS AS IF MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN FAR SE WI. SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
FAR SE WI CLEARING TOWARDS KUES AND KMKE...BUT UNCERTAIN IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK THERE PER LATEST LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS WHICH
FAVOR SW WI FOR EROSION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT
KENW OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE AFTER DAY BREAK WITH MIXING AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RISING TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR-GALE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS SUGGEST A LOT OF THIS DECK ERODES FAIRLY QUICKLY. STARTING TO SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE BUT IT IS QUITE GRADUAL. WILL STICK TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH PROXIMITY OF HIGH WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INVERSION HANGING TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE EAST HAS SLOWED AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING
WILL BE IN EASTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE LOWS A BIT LOWER THERE. SHOULD CLOUDS
CLEAR FURTHER TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS WI DURG THE DAY. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS LEADS TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA BY
DAYS END. LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH 925 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASING TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 930-940 MILLIBARS.
THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER MAX TEMPS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
LEANING MORE TOWARDS MOS FOR NOW OR A SMIDGE HIGHER. PRECARIOUS FORECAST
THOUGH AS UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE SUNSHINE AND NO SNOWCOVER ARE WELL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS WRN IA INTO NW MO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...EXCEEDING 4C IN SOME PLACES...INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUBUQUE TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. A COMPLEX MERGING OF MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME AS WELL. SO FAR PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO RESULT IN SOME SORT OF ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME.
WON/T ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME...JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER GOING
FORWARD.

COLD AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL TRANSITION THE MIX OVER
TO ALL SNOW...IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS...AS IT ENDS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING IT DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
IF THE TRACK SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WE WOULD NEED TO INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS A FEW MORE INCHES. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A BIG
STORM...EVEN IF IT COMES FARTHER NORTH. BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING MORE THAN OUR USUAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WE/VE SEEN THIS
WINTER. DON/T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS ONE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE OUR COLD BLAST BACK IN NOVEMBER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THOUGH APPEARS THE
DRYING TREND IS TOO QUICK ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WI.
SEEING SOME CLEARING IN THE EAST THOUGH THIS IS FILLING RIGHT BACK IN
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KSBM AREA.
AREAS OF IFR FOG/LIFR CIGS IN PARTS OF SC WI EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LLVL
RH INCREASING INTO WRN CWA DURG THE AFTN/EVE. SURFACE LOW ARRIVES FOR
WED NGT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP.

MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD WHEN WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE FLOW
BEING ONSHORE SOME HIGHER WAVES ARE LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO DROP. THIS TEMP FALL WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MID DECK
MOVING OVER. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL IA HOLDING
STEADY...IF NOT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOKS AS IF MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN FAR SE WI. SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
FAR SE WI CLEARING TOWARDS KUES AND KMKE...BUT UNCERTAIN IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK THERE PER LATEST LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS WHICH
FAVOR SW WI FOR EROSION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT
KENW OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE AFTER DAY BREAK WITH MIXING AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RISING TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR-GALE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS SUGGEST A LOT OF THIS DECK ERODES FAIRLY QUICKLY. STARTING TO SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE BUT IT IS QUITE GRADUAL. WILL STICK TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH PROXIMITY OF HIGH WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INVERSION HANGING TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE EAST HAS SLOWED AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING
WILL BE IN EASTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE LOWS A BIT LOWER THERE. SHOULD CLOUDS
CLEAR FURTHER TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS WI DURG THE DAY. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS LEADS TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA BY
DAYS END. LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH 925 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASING TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 930-940 MILLIBARS.
THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER MAX TEMPS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
LEANING MORE TOWARDS MOS FOR NOW OR A SMIDGE HIGHER. PRECARIOUS FORECAST
THOUGH AS UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE SUNSHINE AND NO SNOWCOVER ARE WELL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS WRN IA INTO NW MO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...EXCEEDING 4C IN SOME PLACES...INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUBUQUE TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. A COMPLEX MERGING OF MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME AS WELL. SO FAR PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO RESULT IN SOME SORT OF ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME.
WON/T ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME...JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER GOING
FORWARD.

COLD AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL TRANSITION THE MIX OVER
TO ALL SNOW...IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS...AS IT ENDS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING IT DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
IF THE TRACK SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WE WOULD NEED TO INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS A FEW MORE INCHES. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A BIG
STORM...EVEN IF IT COMES FARTHER NORTH. BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING MORE THAN OUR USUAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WE/VE SEEN THIS
WINTER. DON/T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS ONE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE OUR COLD BLAST BACK IN NOVEMBER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THOUGH APPEARS THE
DRYING TREND IS TOO QUICK ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WI.
SEEING SOME CLEARING IN THE EAST THOUGH THIS IS FILLING RIGHT BACK IN
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KSBM AREA.
AREAS OF IFR FOG/LIFR CIGS IN PARTS OF SC WI EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LLVL
RH INCREASING INTO WRN CWA DURG THE AFTN/EVE. SURFACE LOW ARRIVES FOR
WED NGT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP.

MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD WHEN WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE FLOW
BEING ONSHORE SOME HIGHER WAVES ARE LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS



000
FXUS63 KMKX 280300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS
TO DROP. THIS TEMP FALL WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MID DECK
MOVING OVER. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME EROSION OF LOW CLOUD DECK IN
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL IA HOLDING
STEADY...IF NOT A SLIGHT WESTWARD EXPANSION. WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOKS AS IF MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN FAR SE WI. SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
FAR SE WI CLEARING TOWARDS KUES AND KMKE...BUT UNCERTAIN IF LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK THERE PER LATEST LOW-LEVEL RH FORECASTS WHICH
FAVOR SW WI FOR EROSION OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT
KENW OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE AFTER DAY BREAK WITH MIXING AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS STILL ON TRACK TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BUILDING HIGH WAVES. THERE WILL BE A LULL TO THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RISING TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...WITH NEAR-GALE GUSTS BEHIND THE LOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL
RH PROGS SUGGEST A LOT OF THIS DECK ERODES FAIRLY QUICKLY. STARTING TO SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE BUT IT IS QUITE GRADUAL. WILL STICK TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD FORECAST ESPECIALLY WITH PROXIMITY OF HIGH WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INVERSION HANGING TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE EAST HAS SLOWED AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDS
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CLEARING
WILL BE IN EASTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE LOWS A BIT LOWER THERE. SHOULD CLOUDS
CLEAR FURTHER TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS WI DURG THE DAY. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS LEADS TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA BY
DAYS END. LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP WITH 925 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASING TO
30 TO 40 KNOTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 930-940 MILLIBARS.
THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER MAX TEMPS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
LEANING MORE TOWARDS MOS FOR NOW OR A SMIDGE HIGHER. PRECARIOUS FORECAST
THOUGH AS UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE SUNSHINE AND NO SNOWCOVER ARE WELL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS WRN IA INTO NW MO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING WHILE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES A WARM LAYER
ALOFT...EXCEEDING 4C IN SOME PLACES...INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUBUQUE TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. A COMPLEX MERGING OF MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL OCCUR AT THAT TIME AS WELL. SO FAR PRECIP
AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
FREEZING RAIN TO RESULT IN SOME SORT OF ADVISORY DURING THIS TIME.
WON/T ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME...JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER GOING
FORWARD.

COLD AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL TRANSITION THE MIX OVER
TO ALL SNOW...IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH ICE CRYSTALS...AS IT ENDS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD...
KEEPING IT DRY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH SHOW A LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
IF THE TRACK SNEAKS FARTHER NORTH...WE WOULD NEED TO INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS A FEW MORE INCHES. RIGHT NOW IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A BIG
STORM...EVEN IF IT COMES FARTHER NORTH. BUT IT HAS POTENTIAL FOR
GENERATING MORE THAN OUR USUAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WE/VE SEEN THIS
WINTER. DON/T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS ONE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE OUR COLD BLAST BACK IN NOVEMBER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOW LEVELS PROGGD TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THOUGH APPEARS THE
DRYING TREND IS TOO QUICK ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WI.
SEEING SOME CLEARING IN THE EAST THOUGH THIS IS FILLING RIGHT BACK IN
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KSBM AREA.
AREAS OF IFR FOG/LIFR CIGS IN PARTS OF SC WI EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH LLVL
RH INCREASING INTO WRN CWA DURG THE AFTN/EVE. SURFACE LOW ARRIVES FOR
WED NGT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP.

MARINE...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD WHEN WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THE FLOW
BEING ONSHORE SOME HIGHER WAVES ARE LIKELY AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




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