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000
FXUS63 KGRB 010349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THIS
MORNING ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. CU FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SOME OF WHICH DEVELOPED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WAS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AREA WHERE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTH. A WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN MNM AND
SUE...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN OSH AND Y50. DID NOT HEAR OF ANY HAIL
AS OF 20Z...THOUGH WBZ HEIGHT IS LOWER THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WAS PLENTY OF HAIL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBYS LIKELY
TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO PERSIST DUE TO HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND COLD LAKE
WATERS.

EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EARLY FRIDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOWS HIGHER CAPES
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. SPC HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON DAY 2...SO LIKELY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY.

USED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WAS THINKING PRECIPITATION
TRENDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOVING THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOG AGAIN TO BE ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LAST NIGHTS VSBY FOR TAFS...DROPPING VSBYS A
BIT IN SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AS MAIN AREA OF PCPN TODAY MOVED
THROUGH THERE. ANOTHER DAY OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
FRI AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 010349
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THIS
MORNING ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. CU FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SOME OF WHICH DEVELOPED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WAS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AREA WHERE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTH. A WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN MNM AND
SUE...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN OSH AND Y50. DID NOT HEAR OF ANY HAIL
AS OF 20Z...THOUGH WBZ HEIGHT IS LOWER THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WAS PLENTY OF HAIL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBYS LIKELY
TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO PERSIST DUE TO HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND COLD LAKE
WATERS.

EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EARLY FRIDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOWS HIGHER CAPES
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. SPC HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON DAY 2...SO LIKELY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY.

USED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WAS THINKING PRECIPITATION
TRENDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOVING THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FOG AGAIN TO BE ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LAST NIGHTS VSBY FOR TAFS...DROPPING VSBYS A
BIT IN SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AS MAIN AREA OF PCPN TODAY MOVED
THROUGH THERE. ANOTHER DAY OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
FRI AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KMKX 010244
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI.
GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE MO CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE WI AND A SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WI WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR TSTORMS THERE. STILL BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
WI SO SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY FRI AM WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT TAF SITES IN
SRN WI SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS CONGESTUS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI AFT INTO THE EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WITHIN STRONGER TSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 010244
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI.
GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE MO CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE WI AND A SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WI WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR TSTORMS THERE. STILL BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
WI SO SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY FRI AM WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT TAF SITES IN
SRN WI SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS CONGESTUS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI AFT INTO THE EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WITHIN STRONGER TSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 010244
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI.
GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE MO CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE WI AND A SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WI WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR TSTORMS THERE. STILL BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
WI SO SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY FRI AM WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT TAF SITES IN
SRN WI SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS CONGESTUS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI AFT INTO THE EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WITHIN STRONGER TSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 010244
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END OVER EAST CENTRAL WI.
GIVEN THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES...WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE MO CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH SOME
FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE WI AND A SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WI WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR TSTORMS THERE. STILL BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN
WI SO SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY FRI AM WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT TAF SITES IN
SRN WI SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS CONGESTUS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRI AFT INTO THE EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WITHIN STRONGER TSTORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 312339
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THIS
MORNING ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. CU FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SOME OF WHICH DEVELOPED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WAS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AREA WHERE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTH. A WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN MNM AND
SUE...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN OSH AND Y50. DID NOT HEAR OF ANY HAIL
AS OF 20Z...THOUGH WBZ HEIGHT IS LOWER THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WAS PLENTY OF HAIL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBYS LIKELY
TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO PERSIST DUE TO HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND COLD LAKE
WATERS.

EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EARLY FRIDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOWS HIGHER CAPES
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. SPC HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON DAY 2...SO LIKELY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY.

USED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WAS THINKING PRECIPITATION
TRENDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOVING THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE HAVE LED TO MORE
AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG
AGAIN TO BE ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING. HAVE
TREND TOWARDS LAST NIGHTS VSBY FOR TAFS.&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TE






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KARX 312325
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG/STRATUS TO FORM AT LSE. THE
BIG ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AT 23F AS OF
23Z...AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BCFG BUT ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR BR BETWEEN 10-12Z. CONDITIONS IN GENERAL ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THEREFORE...BOTH TAFS HAVE A VCTS INCLUDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 312325
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TAF SITES TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS RIDGE COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG/STRATUS TO FORM AT LSE. THE
BIG ISSUE IS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD BEING AT 23F AS OF
23Z...AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW FOG TO FORM PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BCFG BUT ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
IFR BR BETWEEN 10-12Z. CONDITIONS IN GENERAL ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THEREFORE...BOTH TAFS HAVE A VCTS INCLUDED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KMKX 312109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 312109
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE WERE BEING
DRIVEN BY PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 500 TO 800 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND MIXED
OUT LOW LEVELS ALSO HELPING OUT. COULD SEE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT LOWER
END POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH FOR ANY STRAGGLERS.
SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WITH THIS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED WATCHING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL BE IN THE 800 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS...MORE PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S WEST.
LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE DEEPENS/SHARPENS SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH OVER THE LAKE
MICHIGAN REGION AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY AREA...FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LINGERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AS VORT MAX
DIVES SE OUT OF THE REGION.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE SE WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ENOUGH SUN FOR
HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 80 IN THE WEST... WITH CLOUDS...ONSHORE
WINDS AND THE SCATTERED PCPN HOLDING READINGS IN THE 70S IN THE
ERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK TO THE NRN CWA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALL BUT THE FAR SW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

NOT MUCH COOLING SO LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BECOMING A FOCUS
FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL WEDNESDAY WITH
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
STATE AND STALLS. BOUNDARY RETURNS NWD THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER
PCPN CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH
OF TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN
TAFS DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THEY
MAY BACK SOUTHEAST BRIEFLY AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA/MADISON/WAUKESHA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WILL BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN
SITES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KGRB 312039
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THIS
MORNING ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. CU FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SOME OF WHICH DEVELOPED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WAS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AREA WHERE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTH. A WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN MNM AND
SUE...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN OSH AND Y50. DID NOT HEAR OF ANY HAIL
AS OF 20Z...THOUGH WBZ HEIGHT IS LOWER THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WAS PLENTY OF HAIL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBYS LIKELY
TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO PERSIST DUE TO HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND COLD LAKE
WATERS.

EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EARLY FRIDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOWS HIGHER CAPES
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. SPC HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON DAY 2...SO LIKELY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY.

USED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WAS THINKING PRECIPITATION
TRENDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOVING THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

DENSE FOG DISSIPATED AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 3KM WERE ALREADY VERY
STEEP AT MIDDAY...CAPES WERE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND AROUND 500J/KG FROM SUE TO RHI. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS A LITTLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STORMS HAD SOME HAIL
SINCE WBZ HEIGHTS WERE LESS THAN 9KFT. STUCK WITH CONVECTION
ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT THIS AS SOME
SHOWERS PERSISTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT KEPT MVFR VSBYS AT TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR
RHI WHERE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KGRB 312039
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY DESTABILIZED THIS
MORNING ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATED. CU FORMED IN THE UNSTABLE
AIR...SOME OF WHICH DEVELOPED INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THAT WAS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATED MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG IN THE AREA WHERE
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE NORTH. A WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO EVIDENT FROM BETWEEN MNM AND
SUE...SOUTHWEST TO BETWEEN OSH AND Y50. DID NOT HEAR OF ANY HAIL
AS OF 20Z...THOUGH WBZ HEIGHT IS LOWER THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY WHEN
THERE WAS PLENTY OF HAIL.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VSBYS LIKELY
TO BE IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN TO PERSIST DUE TO HIGH DEW POINT AIR AND COLD LAKE
WATERS.

EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE EARLY FRIDAY. THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.
BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOWS HIGHER CAPES
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. SPC HAD A 5 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA ON DAY 2...SO LIKELY AND LOW END CHANCE POPS PREVAIL FOR
TUESDAY.

USED BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ADD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON
FRONTAL POSITION AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION WILL MAKE
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SINCE MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WAS THINKING PRECIPITATION
TRENDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOVING THE
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TRENDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

DENSE FOG DISSIPATED AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 3KM WERE ALREADY VERY
STEEP AT MIDDAY...CAPES WERE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND AROUND 500J/KG FROM SUE TO RHI. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS A LITTLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STORMS HAD SOME HAIL
SINCE WBZ HEIGHTS WERE LESS THAN 9KFT. STUCK WITH CONVECTION
ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT THIS AS SOME
SHOWERS PERSISTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT KEPT MVFR VSBYS AT TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR
RHI WHERE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KARX 312021
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERPHIERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE
KLSE. HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN
HOW MUCH DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS.
17Z DEW POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT
THEY WERE LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING.
INCLUDED A BCFG SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z
TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT
AND IF BR/FG CHANCES AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION
AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI
MORNING IN THE 13-18Z PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 312021
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERPHIERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE
KLSE. HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN
HOW MUCH DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS.
17Z DEW POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT
THEY WERE LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING.
INCLUDED A BCFG SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z
TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT
AND IF BR/FG CHANCES AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION
AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI
MORNING IN THE 13-18Z PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 312021
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERPHIERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE
KLSE. HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN
HOW MUCH DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS.
17Z DEW POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT
THEY WERE LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING.
INCLUDED A BCFG SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z
TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT
AND IF BR/FG CHANCES AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION
AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI
MORNING IN THE 13-18Z PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 312021
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AS OF 3 PM...WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE PERPHIERY OF THE
MAIN 500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 IN WISCONSIN. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING IT TO WANE TOWARD
SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY FOR THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BAGGY SURFACE WIND FIELD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEWPOINT
RECOVERY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...WINDS THROUGH 500 MB ARE NOTABLY
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10KTS/ WHICH WILL AID IN FOG FORMATION.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE...AND LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUGGESTING MUCH. AS SUCH...WILL LIMIT FOG COVERAGE TO ONLY PATCHY
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SOME OF THE LOW-LYING BOG AREAS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AFTER ANY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS SEEN FROM 500-300
MB PV ADVECTION WHICH PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING /LOW 80S/ COUPLED WITH COOLER
500 MB TEMPERATURES /-16C/ AND SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WILL LEAD TO
RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM BY
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MAX SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 1500 TO 1700 J/KG.
COMPARED TO PAST FEW DAYS...THE CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS MORE NOTABLE
WITH NCAPE VALUES AROUND 0.2 FROM RST TO LSE TO NEC.
FINALLY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12
KFT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED...WITH PRACTICALLY NO DIRECTIONAL OR SPEED SHEAR NOTED.

IN SHORT...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...STEEP
LAPSE RATES...AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO
THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS. THE 31.12Z DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
EVENING...SUPPORTING THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS RATHER DRY SEEN BY THE INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS OFF THE
NAM/GFS.

HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE
THE BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP RESIDES. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET...THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE 500-300 MB PV ADVECTION THROUGH 06Z SO HAVE
CARRIED HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
03Z...THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED FOCUSED ON WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY...BUT THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH A FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE
GREATEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT BY
MONDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD FEATURE
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE 31.12Z
MODEL CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD DRAPE A WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65 TO 70 F...AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SHOWN THIS SIGNAL...SO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL ALSO BE THIS PERIOD THAT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE
COMBINED WITH WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE
KLSE. HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN
HOW MUCH DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS.
17Z DEW POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT
THEY WERE LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING.
INCLUDED A BCFG SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z
TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT
AND IF BR/FG CHANCES AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION
AND SOME VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI
MORNING IN THE 13-18Z PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KGRB 311815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

DENSE FOG DISSIPATED AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 3KM WERE ALREADY VERY
STEEP AT MIDDAY...CAPES WERE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND AROUND 500J/KG FROM SUE TO RHI. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS A LITTLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STORMS HAD SOME HAIL
SINCE WBZ HEIGHTS WERE LESS THAN 9KFT. STUCK WITH CONVECTION
ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT THIS AS SOME
SHOWERS PERSISTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT KEPT MVFR VSBYS AT TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR
RHI WHERE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KGRB 311815
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
115 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

DENSE FOG DISSIPATED AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 3KM WERE ALREADY VERY
STEEP AT MIDDAY...CAPES WERE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND AROUND 500J/KG FROM SUE TO RHI. EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE. SHOWERS BEGAN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS A LITTLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE STORMS HAD SOME HAIL
SINCE WBZ HEIGHTS WERE LESS THAN 9KFT. STUCK WITH CONVECTION
ENDING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WAS UNSURE ABOUT THIS AS SOME
SHOWERS PERSISTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT KEPT MVFR VSBYS AT TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR
RHI WHERE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KARX 311723
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE KLSE.
HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN HOW MUCH
DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS. 17Z DEW
POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT THEY WERE
LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING. INCLUDED A BCFG
SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE
A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT AND IF BR/FG CHANCES
AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION AND SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI MORNING IN THE 13-18Z
PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 311723
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

BULK OF THE AREA IS BETWEEN SHORTWAVES TODAY. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
LOOKING TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A SCT TO LCL BKN VFR CUMULUS
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA NORTH/EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO
SHOW WINDS OF LESS THAN 10KT THRU 700MB TONIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG AT SITES LIKE KLSE.
HOWEVER LOWERING DEW POINTS AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON THEN HOW MUCH
DEW POINTS RISE THIS EVENING REMAIN THE BIG QUESTIONS. 17Z DEW
POINTS REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE TONIGHTS EXPECTED LOWS BUT THEY WERE
LOWERING AT MID DAY WITH THE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING. INCLUDED A BCFG
SCT006 AT KLSE IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD FOR NOW. 00Z TAF CYCLE WILL HAVE
A BETTER FEEL FOR THE DEW POINT TRENDS TONIGHT AND IF BR/FG CHANCES
AT KLSE WOULD REQUIRE MORE OF A BR/FG MENTION AND SOME VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. GOOD VFR EXPECTED FRI MORNING IN THE 13-18Z
PERIOD ONCE ANY BR/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF.

JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD...THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCT
SHRA/TSRA NEAR/AT THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE MORE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 311643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. MODELS SHOWING TWO 500
MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING NEAR THE AREA...ONE BRUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS LIGHT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS ON
NAM/GFS MODELS THAT CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MEAN LAYER CAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAP MIXES OUT DEW POINTS TO AROUND 50 AND HAS LITTLE MEAN LAYER
CAPE AT ALL. NAM KEEPS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
AND HAS AROUND 1000 J/KG. FEEL THAT DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
CAPES WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

THUS...A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED...WITH
DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
LOWER END POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...THOUGH MAY PUSH BACK
START TO MIDDLE/LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. MAY SEE LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY BACK SOUTHEAST AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA AND PERHAPS MADISON/WAUKESHA BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING MAY BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 311643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES. MODELS SHOWING TWO 500
MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING NEAR THE AREA...ONE BRUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS LIGHT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS ON
NAM/GFS MODELS THAT CROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MEAN LAYER CAPE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAP MIXES OUT DEW POINTS TO AROUND 50 AND HAS LITTLE MEAN LAYER
CAPE AT ALL. NAM KEEPS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
AND HAS AROUND 1000 J/KG. FEEL THAT DEW POINTS AND MEAN LAYER
CAPES WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.

THUS...A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED...WITH
DEW POINTS MIXING TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
LOWER END POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...THOUGH MAY PUSH BACK
START TO MIDDLE/LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. MAY SEE LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR NOW...WILL JUST USE VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY BACK SOUTHEAST AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AFTER 22Z DUE TO LAKE BREEZE.

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT
WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR CATEGORY LIGHT FOG
AT KENOSHA AND PERHAPS MADISON/WAUKESHA BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING MAY BE USED AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN SITES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KARX 311155
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF 5K CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 31.14Z. THEER MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01.02Z AND 01.05Z.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS DIRES OUT SO MUCH DURING THE
DAY...THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER
WITH STILL A RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE
FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KARX 311155
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CAUSE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF 5K CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
AROUND 31.14Z. THEER MAY BE EVEN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 01.02Z AND 01.05Z.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS DIRES OUT SO MUCH DURING THE
DAY...THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER
WITH STILL A RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE
FOG IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE



000
FXUS63 KGRB 311127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO MIX OUT BEFORE 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND ISLD TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS AT AUW/CWA...
BUT LEFT THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 311127
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO MIX OUT BEFORE 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND ISLD TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHOWERS AT AUW/CWA...
BUT LEFT THE OTHER TAF SITES DRY FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






000
FXUS63 KGRB 310843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KGRB 310843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KGRB 310843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KGRB 310843
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PCPN TRENDS...FOG TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS.

SHOWERS HAD ENDED OVER CENTRAL WI...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY ERODING OVER THE SW PART OF THE FCST AREA. AREAS OF
FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER NC WI...WITH PATCHY FOG REPORTED
ELSEWHERE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF VILAS...
ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

VSBYS HAD ALREADY DROPPED TO 1/4SM-3/4SM OVER VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SAME AREA HAD DENSE FOG
YESTERDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT-WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE RGN
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS EXPECTED. DRIER CANADIAN
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCH...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN WI
TODAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLD/SCT.
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER FAR NE WI. WILL
CARRY SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND FAR NE WI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. USED A BLEND OF THE TOP-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS
(WHICH HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT LATELY) FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...
EXCEPT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH...TO 55 TO 60 SOUTH.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG...WITH LI`S OF -5 TO -7. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOULD HELP
TRIGGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK (10-20 KTS)...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WET
BULB ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR TO THE
RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH FLATTENED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER...THAT WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
THESE MODELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  THEN AS THE TROUGH EXITS...WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
FAVORED A DRY FORECAST...AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS REASONING THOUGH
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK THIS IS OVERDONE THOUGH.  THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WILL INCREASE SKY COVER LATE BUT KEEP THE AREA DRY.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH
ITS NOT EXACTLY CLEAR WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP BY TUESDAY.  SEEMS
THAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OFFER BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP RATHER
THAN TUESDAY.  THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005-010-
018.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KMKX 310831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

-SHRA FINALLY COMING TO AN END NEAR KMSN.  AMAZINGLY THESE -SHRA
WERE REMNANTS OF WED EVE CONVECTION CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED NW WI.
-SHRA ARE DIMINISHING AS AIR MASS FURTHER DESTABILIZES.  MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J OVER MOST OF SRN WI.  OTRW...WL NEED TO KEEP IN LOW POPS
FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S RESULTING IN MUCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WED AFTN...REACHING THE 6-6.5 DEGREE
RANGE WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX FALLING TO AROUND -2.  SLIGHTLY
MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS WELL AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH IA INTO NW IL TODAY AND THIS EVE.

ONCE AGAIN COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION ACROSS SRN WI.
WEBCAMS OR SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET.  AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DISSIPATING -SHRA CONT TO THIN...SOME ERN AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSBM AND KENW.  AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE WI RVR VALLEY FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS WELL.

PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE WED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.  LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL HALT
TEMP RISE BY LAKE MI THIS AFTN.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA. HARD TO PICK UP ON ANY
ORGANIZED FORCING DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME WITH PRIMARY VORT
MAX ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT EVEN THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY
WANES.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EASTERN CWA
CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS UPSTAIRS WITH THE LINGERING UPPER
CYCLONIC FLOW.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WI. NO DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVES TO LATCH ONTO
FOR FOCUSING PRECIP. THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH
THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP PRECIP LARGELY ACROSS NRN WI CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVING
FORCE FOR ANY CONVECTION.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
PROGGD TO TAKE AIM ON THE WRN GRT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
FASTER AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLOWER. WHILE DETAILS VARY AMONGST
THE MODELS THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS FROM THE ALLBLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT SEVERAL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG.
NOT EXPECTING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE DRIER
JUST ABOVE SFC INVERSION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WESTERLY.  STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AFTN
CONVECTION AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WEAKLY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS REGION.  EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO AFFECT ERN
TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL WARMING WL RESULT IN
LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE E-SE LATER THIS MRNG...
CONTINUING THIS AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KARX 310807
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 310807
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 310807
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 310807
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.

LATEST MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND
LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LATEST METARS INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORM
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
AMERICA CONTINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE
31.00Z GFS/NAM 31.03Z AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW UP TO 1000 J/KG CAPE
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

TONIGHT...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ARE INDICATING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND AND DEVELOP
AN INVERSION AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FAVORABLE RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

FRIDAY...THE 31.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
AND GFS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY OF
500 TO AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND PRODUCE 0-3KM SHEAR OF LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LARGE SEVERE HAIL...DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.

HEIGHTS RISE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 31.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE 31.0ZZ GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FRONT IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARE WARRANTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 310448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 310448
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT LSE. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OUT AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WORRIED THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS OF A 10-20 KT WIND AT 1000 FT ABOVE LSE OVERNIGHT
ARE A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN CALM WINDS CURRENTLY AT THE OFFICE WHICH
IS ABOUT 600 FT ABOVE LSE. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED AN IFR
VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 10-12Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ANY VALLEY FOG OR STRATUS PRODUCED FROM
IT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY...LIKELY BY 1315Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
EVEN MENTION A VCSH. LOOKING AHEAD...MORE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL
EXISTS AT LSE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 310352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 310352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KGRB 310352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE








000
FXUS63 KGRB 310352
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1052 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING FOX VALLEY...LINGERING A BIT LONGER OVER
CENTRAL WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM EVENING RAINS TO ALLOW AREAS
OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH VISIBILITY SIMILAR TO LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON THU...THUS HAVE
STAYED DRY AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE









000
FXUS63 KMKX 310235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NRN CWA
FROM CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE MODELS TAKE ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MI
WITH ANOTHER ACROSS IA. A SFC TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER NE WI WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO OVERALL THE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF LIFT ARE TO THE NORTH AND THE SW BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY THU
THROUGH THU NT. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE OF
A CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NRN CWA
FROM CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE MODELS TAKE ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MI
WITH ANOTHER ACROSS IA. A SFC TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER NE WI WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO OVERALL THE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF LIFT ARE TO THE NORTH AND THE SW BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY THU
THROUGH THU NT. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE OF
A CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NRN CWA
FROM CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE MODELS TAKE ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MI
WITH ANOTHER ACROSS IA. A SFC TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER NE WI WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO OVERALL THE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF LIFT ARE TO THE NORTH AND THE SW BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY THU
THROUGH THU NT. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE OF
A CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 310235
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NRN CWA
FROM CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE MODELS TAKE ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MI
WITH ANOTHER ACROSS IA. A SFC TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER NE WI WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO OVERALL THE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF LIFT ARE TO THE NORTH AND THE SW BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER OVERALL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY THU
THROUGH THU NT. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE OF
A CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KARX 302337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ITS
POSSIBLE THESE SHOWERS IMPACT LSE...BUT HARD TO SAY WHAT STATE
THEY WILL BE IN BY THE TIME THEY GET THERE WITH TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN COOLING SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 01-03Z FOR SHOWERS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND VFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT LSE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 10-20 KT NORTHWEST WIND JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BEING
MORE SHELTERED STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AND THUS HAVE
VCFG MENTIONED.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN A TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 302337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ITS
POSSIBLE THESE SHOWERS IMPACT LSE...BUT HARD TO SAY WHAT STATE
THEY WILL BE IN BY THE TIME THEY GET THERE WITH TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN COOLING SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 01-03Z FOR SHOWERS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND VFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT LSE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 10-20 KT NORTHWEST WIND JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BEING
MORE SHELTERED STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AND THUS HAVE
VCFG MENTIONED.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN A TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 302337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ITS
POSSIBLE THESE SHOWERS IMPACT LSE...BUT HARD TO SAY WHAT STATE
THEY WILL BE IN BY THE TIME THEY GET THERE WITH TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN COOLING SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 01-03Z FOR SHOWERS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND VFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT LSE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 10-20 KT NORTHWEST WIND JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BEING
MORE SHELTERED STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AND THUS HAVE
VCFG MENTIONED.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN A TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 302337
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ITS
POSSIBLE THESE SHOWERS IMPACT LSE...BUT HARD TO SAY WHAT STATE
THEY WILL BE IN BY THE TIME THEY GET THERE WITH TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN COOLING SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
BETWEEN 01-03Z FOR SHOWERS WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND VFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT LSE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 10-20 KT NORTHWEST WIND JUST ABOVE THE VALLEY
FLOOR...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG. NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BEING
MORE SHELTERED STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AND THUS HAVE
VCFG MENTIONED.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN A TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KGRB 302335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE U P YET AGAIN
THIS EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW LONG THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. MESO
MODEL SUGGESTS FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
AFT 01Z...THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE
REGION. THUS WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS SOUTH OF RHI. LIGHT WINDS AND
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KGRB 302335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE U P YET AGAIN
THIS EVENING. QUESTION IS HOW LONG THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER. MESO
MODEL SUGGESTS FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
AFT 01Z...THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MUCH MORE STABLE
REGION. THUS WILL ONLY CARRY SHOWERS SOUTH OF RHI. LIGHT WINDS AND
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KMKX 302057
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM



000
FXUS63 KMKX 302057
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE
THAT WOULD HELP GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BESIDES MIXING WITH
CURRENT HEATING OVER THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MEAN
LAYER CAPE...THOUGH MOST IS SHALLOW. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE EVENING...JUST IN CASE SHOWERS DEVELOP. REMOVED ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING...AS NOT SEEING MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE 10 BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS LEVEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE POPS...AND COULD END
UP BEING A DRY PERIOD.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

NAM AND GFS SHOWING BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MEAN LAYER CAPE VALUES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWING 1000 TO 1200 J/KG...WITH GFS SHOWING
PERHAPS HALF THAT AT BEST. NAM CAN BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE
VALUES...SO LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. STILL...ENOUGH TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE GFS MEAN LAYER CAPE.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. MAY SEE
LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

VORT MAX IN BASE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES SRN WI BETWEEN 00Z AND
12Z FRIDAY. DCVA-DRIVEN MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INCREASES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAXING OUT AT
06Z...THEN LOWERING/MOVING SE OUT OF CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PRIOR TO 06Z...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH
FORCING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT VORT MAX RETURNING AS IT ROTATES IN
BASE OF DEEPENING TROUGH...AND IN THE NORTH WITH INCREASING
FORCING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN WI BY
00Z SAT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND OMEGA
DOESN`T MAX OUT UNTIL 00Z SAT OR LATER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
SLOWER SOLUTION TO LOWER LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ONLY SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS IN THE NE OVERNIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOCATION OF TROUGH AND WESTWARD
EXTENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPINNING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWEST CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
LIMITS CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ALL THE PCPN OUT OF SRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

TROUGH FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE OF WESTERN RIDGE LEAD TO LOCATION
DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER JET AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NRN WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PCPN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG A FRONT/WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
WITH TIME THEN STALLS AS MODELS EVOLVE INTO A PSEUDO- ZONAL FLOW
AS RIDGE HEELS OVER AND FLATTENS. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS LOW
CHANCE POPS BACK INTO NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG SAGGING BOUNDARY. APPROACHING BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SPREADS CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. USED VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KGRB 302036
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

CHANCES FOR AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

GENERAL SURFACE FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS RATHER WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WAS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS PRODUCING MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM WESTERN ONTARIO AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND UPPER
MICHIGAN...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
AROUND 250J/KG MUCAPE AND LITTLE/NO CIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT NO CAPE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS OF 19Z.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TO 1.5KM LAPSE RATES WERE AT LEAST 10K/KM AND 0
TO 3KM LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 7K/KM. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
WAS UNIMPRESSIVE.

12Z NAM AND GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEPT SOME QPF IN THE STATE INTO AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z EC SEEMED TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
TOWARD MORNING. HAVE THEN BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...MAINLY BLENDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SOME OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SHORT
WAVE TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT...WILL FOCUS BEST POP TRENDS WITH
THE H500 TEMP PROGS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY THURSDAY EVENING
HOWEVER ALL PROGS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER H5 TEMPS FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MODIFYING AGAIN FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PROGS ALSO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHC POPS FOCUSED FOR FRIDAY...AND LIGHTER DIURNAL LOWER
END CHC POPS OR DRY ELSEWHERE.

UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. MODELS ATTEMPTS TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE
OVER THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY DROP THIS WAVE AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN OR STALLS NEXT WEEK IN THE LESS
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND WILL BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY NEXT
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED PCPN CHANCE FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FOG DISSIPATED
AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT CIGS AND
VSBYS WERE IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 17Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDS...THAT APPEARED TO HAVE SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...MOVING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF INL TO NEAR
DLH SINCE MID MORNING. THE 12Z INL SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE
ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION BUT...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LITTLE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GENERAL IDEA OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM/12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF ALL SHOWED AREAS OF QPF IN THE STATE TODAY BUT
CONTINUED IT DURING THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LOW AND LOCATIONS DID NOT ALWAYS MATCH UP...SO HAVE
OPTED FOR THE SIMPLE PLAN FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG






000
FXUS63 KARX 301935
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JUL AND GETTING
INTO THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z
PERIOD. ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF
IT RAINS AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 301935
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JUL AND GETTING
INTO THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z
PERIOD. ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF
IT RAINS AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 301935
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JUL AND GETTING
INTO THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z
PERIOD. ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF
IT RAINS AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KARX 301935
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARY ISSUE IS DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCE AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ROTING AROUND THE LARGE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW. ONE SUCH
WAVE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION
CROSSING THE LAKE ALREADY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NOW STARTING
TO FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AS CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO
BUILD. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HUNG ON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
THROUGH MID-DAY...SO THERE IS A DISCERNIBLE CLEAR SPOT IN THE CU
FIELD. DO THINK IT WILL FILL IN SOME YET THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
AND MIXING CONTINUES. BUT THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD ALONG A BAND FROM THE TWIN CITIES DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WHERE THE CAPE FIELD HAS INCREASED
TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WANE AS DIURNAL FORCING DIMINISHES. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASICALLY IN
CONTROL...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO ACT ON THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED ATMOSPHERE
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN. HAVE AGAIN GONE WITH THE LOW
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR LATE JULY...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE IS STRONGER AND LOOKS TO
BRING A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THIS ADDED CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL ALTER THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN JUST A
BIT...SO THAT WE TEMPORARILY GET OUT OF THE GRIP OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WE STAY IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ZONAL.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVER SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BUT OF COURSE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...AND MEANDERS NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
AND WITH IT IN THE VICINITY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. THUS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO IOWA. BUT GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL HANG UP FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION WARMER WITH A BIT LESS OF A RAIN
THREAT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THROUGH THIS LONGER TERM
PERIOD WITH OUR REGION RIGHT ON THE EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JUL AND GETTING
INTO THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z
PERIOD. ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR
IN THE VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF
IT RAINS AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD
OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RRS



000
FXUS63 KGRB 301807
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. FOG DISSIPATED
AND CU DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY...BUT CIGS AND
VSBYS WERE IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT 17Z. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF CLOUDS...THAT APPEARED TO HAVE SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...MOVING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF INL TO NEAR
DLH SINCE MID MORNING. THE 12Z INL SOUNDING WAS QUITE UNSTABLE
ABOVE A SURFACE INVERSION BUT...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED LITTLE. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE GENERAL IDEA OF AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM/12Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF ALL SHOWED AREAS OF QPF IN THE STATE TODAY BUT
CONTINUED IT DURING THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY LOW AND LOCATIONS DID NOT ALWAYS MATCH UP...SO HAVE
OPTED FOR THE SIMPLE PLAN FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MG







000
FXUS63 KMKX 301747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE DEVELOPING...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH CONVECTION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOW. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 301747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE DEVELOPING...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH CONVECTION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOW. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 301747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE DEVELOPING...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH CONVECTION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOW. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 301747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE DEVELOPING...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SUPPORTING MUCH CONVECTION WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOW. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WILL USE VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 301725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JULY AND GETTING INTO
THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD.
ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR IN THE
VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF IT RAINS
AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 301725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JULY AND GETTING INTO
THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD.
ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR IN THE
VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF IT RAINS
AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 301725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JULY AND GETTING INTO
THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD.
ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR IN THE
VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF IT RAINS
AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 301725
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SIMILAR SET-UP TO TUESDAY...WITH DIURNAL WARMING BUILDING SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE JAMES BAY MID LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN
VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT
SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z-03Z TIME-FRAME.
GIVEN THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION...ONLY INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE FOR NOW. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SOME TIMING CAN BE DETAILED...TAFS WOULD BE UPDATED FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIAL TSRA/CB.

LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE OF THE OVERALL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT IS NOW THE END OF JULY AND GETTING INTO
THE MORE FREQUENT RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG TIME OF THE YEAR. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE 09-13Z PERIOD.
ADDED BCFG TO KLSE FROM 09-13Z TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FG/BR IN THE
VALLEYS NEAR KLSE BUT NOT NECESSARILY OVER THE AIRFIELD. IF IT RAINS
AT KLSE IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD...LIKELY WILL BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR VSBYS AT KLSE IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD THU MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS




000
FXUS63 KARX 301204
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
704 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THROUGH 30.14Z...THE DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...AND IN THE WISCONSIN AND LA CROSSE RIVER VALLEYS WILL
DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST WINDS KEPT THE DENSE FOG FROM IMPACTING KLSE.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE IFR DECK MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
JACKSON COUNTY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY...KEPT A VICINITY SHOWER AND BOTH TAF SITES. CEILINGS
WILL BE AROUND 5K FEET.

AFTER 31.05Z...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN DECK OF 5K
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. MEANWHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY. WILL JUST STAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE




000
FXUS63 KGRB 301135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVER NC WI AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA SHOULD MIX OUT EARLY IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LESS NUMEROUS AND WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH







000
FXUS63 KGRB 300853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE







000
FXUS63 KGRB 300853
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH NE WI EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NIGHTTIME STABILITY. ANOTHER S/W TROF...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL BRUSH THROUGH FAR NE WI THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THE LFQ OF A 70 KT JET. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ONLY 300-500 J/KG)...EXPECT DAYTIME
CONVECTION TO BE WEAKER...WITH LESS COVERAGE. WILL ONLY CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NE WI.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVG...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
USED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE SETS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST LLVL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER FAR NE WI. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER. H8 TEMPS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES C WARMER
THAN TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
AT 500MB WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THIS
PERIOD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND AGREE WELL WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING THE REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.  AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  VERY
LITTLE CHANGES INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVERHEAD.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. MAX AND
MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OVER THE PERIOD.

REST OF THE FORECAST...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUND A LITTLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OF THE DAYS THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BEING DRY.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROLONGING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
POSSIBLY TURNING DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TE






000
FXUS63 KMKX 300830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR



000
FXUS63 KMKX 300830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTING TO PREVENTING FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. HOWEVER WEAKNESS
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WEAK FRONT AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY YET ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...BUT FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF
ON INCLUDING FOG IN EARLY MORNING FORECAST EXCEPT IN WI RVR VLY.

OTRW WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL BE EXITING SE WI EARLY THIS MRNG.
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD -SHRA NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  REST OF MRNG EXPECTED TO BE DRY WHILE ATMOSPHERE
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES FOR THE AFTN.  WITH AFTN DEWPTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXPECT MUCAPE VALUES TO REACH VALUES OF 200-400
J/KG.  HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT AS NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS WHAT OCCURRED
LATER TUE.  SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF SRN
WI AS NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL GTLAKES.  LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JETLET ALSO REMAINS
FARTHER EAST.  HOWEVER CAN NOT IGNORE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW.  WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR -SHRA AND ISOLD
T THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE.  OTHERWISE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL
WELL AWAY FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS DEW FORMATION SHOULD PREVAIL.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SEE NO REASON TO NOT CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. BROAD
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW FEATURES AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE ACROSS
ERN WI DURG THE MRNG WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE SHIFTING FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DCVA FROM THIS
LATTER FEATURE AFFECTS THE WRN CWA AFTER 21Z OR SO. WITH WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...WILL CONTINUE THE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IDEA. 925 TEMPS DO
NUDGE UP A BIT TO THE 19-21C RANGE.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PARADE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES WITH MORE RIPPLES SWINGING
THROUGH IN THE BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEFORE THE HELP
FROM UPSTAIRS. WILL KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT AFTER THE PEAK INSTABILITY.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR SE WI AT 12Z WITH A
SLOW SHIFT TO THE EAST. LINGERING VORTICITY AND COLD POOL ALOFT
SUGGESTS KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE GRIDS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE OF
AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK TO THE UPPER PATTERN FOR A CHANGE. THE GFS
LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP RETURN AND PREFER THE LOOK OF THE
ECMWF KEEPING BEST CHC TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT
LOOK STRONG NOR DOES THE UPPER FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER
850/925 BAROCLINICITY MAY BE THE BIGGER DRIVING FORCE FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF FOG MAY YET AFFECT KENW AND KUES
DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.  HOWEVER EXPECT
FOG TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
PATCHY CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION RETURNS THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO TUE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SFC FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN KMTW AND KSBM WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS SRN LAKE MI THRU EARLY THIS MRNG.  SFC WNDS WL TURN FROM THE
W TO THE N TO NE DURING THE MRNG AS THE FRONT PASSES.  WIND SPEEDS
WL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KARX 300808
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
DESPITE TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCSH AT BOTH
TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...PERHAPS QUICKER THAN TODAY GIVEN LESS COVERAGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIG THING TO WATCH FOR
IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS...AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING SOME BR TO FORM PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE
VISIBILITIES GO EVEN LOWER.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 300808
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM LATE EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/NAM AND RAP
SHOW WEAKER INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/NAM/RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH THE
30.00Z GFS/NAM SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CAPE RANGING FROM
A FEW HUNDRED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS FORECAST AREA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. PLUS...THE 30.00Z GFS/NAM INDICATE PV ADVECTION TO ADD IN
VERTICAL MOTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST 30.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE
INDICATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 30.00Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS MODELS SHOW SURFACE FRONT
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON WHERE PRECIPITATION SETS UP OVER
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 30.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
DESPITE TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCSH AT BOTH
TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...PERHAPS QUICKER THAN TODAY GIVEN LESS COVERAGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIG THING TO WATCH FOR
IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS...AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING SOME BR TO FORM PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE
VISIBILITIES GO EVEN LOWER.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KARX 300453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 29.18Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE LIFT FOR THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO MAINLY BE FROM A 700MB TROUGH DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS DIURNAL HEATING COMES TO AN
END...EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE EVENING GOES ON.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE FORCING OVERALL IS MUCH
WEAKER...YET WE ARE STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH
NEARBY IN ONTARIO. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN IOWA/MINNESOTA DUE TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 800-600MB PER 29.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STALLED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCAL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST OVER THAT TIME
FRAME. STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 100-500 J/KG OF SB/MLCAPE AND WEAK
DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PULSEY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS IN THE 29.12Z GUIDANCE THAT
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY SO THAT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT DEVELOP WITH A MAINLY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE.

SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE 29.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE POSITION OF
THIS FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GEM OFFERS UP THE FARTHEST NORTH/WARMEST SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WITH ITS PUSH SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DECENT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ITS
TRENDS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
DESPITE TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCSH AT BOTH
TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...PERHAPS QUICKER THAN TODAY GIVEN LESS COVERAGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIG THING TO WATCH FOR
IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS...AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING SOME BR TO FORM PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE
VISIBILITIES GO EVEN LOWER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KARX 300453
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 29.18Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE LIFT FOR THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO MAINLY BE FROM A 700MB TROUGH DIVING SOUTH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS DIURNAL HEATING COMES TO AN
END...EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THE EVENING GOES ON.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE FORCING OVERALL IS MUCH
WEAKER...YET WE ARE STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH
NEARBY IN ONTARIO. HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN IOWA/MINNESOTA DUE TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 800-600MB PER 29.12Z NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STALLED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCAL CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST OVER THAT TIME
FRAME. STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 100-500 J/KG OF SB/MLCAPE AND WEAK
DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PULSEY.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS IN THE 29.12Z GUIDANCE THAT
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY SO THAT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT DEVELOP WITH A MAINLY
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE.

SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE 29.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE POSITION OF
THIS FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GEM OFFERS UP THE FARTHEST NORTH/WARMEST SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS WITH ITS PUSH SOUTH
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME DECENT INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ITS
TRENDS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
DESPITE TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BOTH TAF
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A VCSH AT BOTH
TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS WILL THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...PERHAPS QUICKER THAN TODAY GIVEN LESS COVERAGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIG THING TO WATCH FOR
IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING
OUT AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS...AT A
MINIMUM EXPECTING SOME BR TO FORM PRIOR TO SUNRISE. ITS POSSIBLE
VISIBILITIES GO EVEN LOWER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300436
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.

THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.

TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.

WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.  SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300436
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.

THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.

TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.

WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.  SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300436
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.

THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.

TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.

WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.  SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300436
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE CANADIAN POLAR
TROUGH FOR WED AFTERNOON WITH SRN WI ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF IT. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE RESIDE OVER THE REGION VIA THE UPPER
WAVE WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BUT PROBABLY LESSER COVERAGE THAN
WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN070-110 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WED AM ALONG WITH LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SRN WI. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE RAIN
COOLED AIR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT TIMES. OTHERWISE
CUMULUS CONGESTUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR WED
AFT AND EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER SE CANADA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IS OVER NORTHERN WI AT 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS ARE NOW SHOWING
ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH...ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND MODERATE OMEGA AROUND 7 PM AT MADISON.

THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW MODELS AGREE THAT IS THE PEAK TIME OF
CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH LATE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF THE STRONGER CELLS AND WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE ONE OR TWO CELLS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS AND
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE STATE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ONE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...SO I AM
EXPECTING ANY POP-UP SHOWERS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
THUS...KEPT LOWER POPS INSTEAD OF RAISING THEM TO LIKELY.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SO A LAKE BREEZE IS A SURE BET. INLAND AREAS
WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WED NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

REGION CAUGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVE RIDING 250 MB SPEED MAX THAT PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS IT ROTATES AROUND NEARLY-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW WOBBLING NEAR JAMES BAY ...AND SHEARED VORTICITY ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY STAY CLOSE TO EASTERN
SHORT WAVE...BUT SOME OMEGA MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WED
EVENING. ALSO SOME BRIEF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MAX PASSING
THROUGH....THOUGH NAM IS EARLIER THAN GFS WITH THIS FEATURE.

WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EARLY EVENING IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SW...AND LINGER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z IN THE NE HALF OF CWA.
DECOUPLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER 06Z WILL ALLOW LOWS TO
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE STATE...BUT SOME WEAK 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE
CROSSES SRN WI AHEAD OF THE WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER COOLING
500 MB TEMPERATURES. RESULTING FORCING AND INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF MORE MOIST SFC DEW
POINTS ON NAM PAN OUT WITH SFC BASED CAPE RISING TO NEAR 900 J/KG.

TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT GIVEN
925 MB TEMPS OF 20C TO 21C WEST AND 19C TO 20C EAST AND WESTERLY
GRADIENT WIND...EVEN THOUGH UNDER 10 KNOTS...STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF LAKE BREEZE UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST.

WILL CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR POSITION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LAYING IT OVER THE NRN CWA WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE THEN
SLOWLY WASH IT OUT OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...GIVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK. WHILE ALL OF SRN WISCONSIN SHOULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING THE STRONGEST
FORCING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING THERE. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE...OF VARYING STRENGTH AMONG THE
MODELS...MOVES THROUGH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST FROM THE VICINITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL AFFECTING SRN WI
SATURDAY...EITHER IN THE FORM OF A LINGERING BROAD CIRCULATION AS
DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND GEM...OR A TRAILING WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN THE
ECMWF. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BUT DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO RISE WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES IN RESPONSE TO RE-DEVELOPING WESTERN
RIDGE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND BRIEFLY REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.  SMALL HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

MARINE...

THE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM




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